Mystery of the Florida 2004 precinct matches.

Precincts with Matching Party Ratios
http://www.recountflorida.com/ufed 

There are 7302 precincts in Florida.
There were 27 matching pairs in adjacent precincts. A matching pair is defined
as two adjacent precincts having identical (within 0.1%) vote/registration
ratios, for either Kerry or Bush.

An example of a matching pair is: Baker County (precincts 4C and 4D).
The Kerry vote/registration ratio is 13.2% in both.
			
Precinct
      KV        KP   BV        BP
4C	92	13.2%	411	120.9%
4D	68	13.2%	360	144.0%

where
KV = Kerry vote
BV = Bush vote
KP = KV/ registered Democrats
BP = BV/ registered Republicans


What is the probability of at least 27 adjacent precinct matches?

The probability that two adjacent precincts match to within 0.1% (such as the
13.2% match above) is 1/1000, since there are 100*10 = 1000 possibilities 
assuming a range from 0 to 100%.

There are 14604=7302*2 possibilities (7302 precincts, Bush and Kerry ratios)

Since the probability of a match is .001, the expected number of matches is
.001*14604= 14.6

Let's calculate the probability that at least N matches out of the 14604
possibilities would occur by chance, given that PM is the probability of a
matched pair. 

Using the Excel Binomial distribution function:
Prob (at least N) = 1- BINOMDIST(N-1, 14604, PM, true)

Substituting N=27 (matches) and PM=.001 (probability of a match)

  Prob (at least 27) = 1- BINOMDIST(26, 14604, .001, true) =0.00239
          
Probability of 27 or more matched adjacent pairs:	0.23%	 
                     or 1 in	432
			
Probability Table	(N= number of matches)		
	N	Prob>=	Odds: 1 in 
	1	100.00%	1
	2	100.00%	1
	3	99.99%	1
	4	99.97%	1
	5	99.89%	1
	6	99.63%	1
	7	99.02%	1
	8	97.75%	1
	9	95.42%	1
	10	91.64%	1
	11	86.11%	1
	12	78.77%	1
	13	69.84%	1
	14	59.80%	2
	15	49.33%	2
	16	39.14%	3
	17	29.84%	3
	18	21.84%	5
	19	15.36%	7
	20	10.38%	10
	21	6.74%	15
	22	4.21%	24
	23	2.53%	39
	24	1.47%	68
	25	0.82%	122
	26	0.44%	225
	27	0.23%	432

__________________________________________________________

Results listed contain adjacent precincts based on election reports.
Ratios are calculated from Democratic OR Republican registrant totals ONLY.

				
PRECINCT	KERRY		BUSH	
1				
Baker				
4C	92	13.2%	411	120.9%
4D	68	13.2%	360	144.0%
				
2				
Bay				
28 - WESTSIDE MENS CLUB	167	19.6%	584	44.7%
29 - GRACE PRESBY.	         198	19.6%	672	53.1%
				
3				
Bradford				
6A Northside Bapt Church	31	14.4%	173	147.9%
6B Northside Bapt Church	28	14.1%	142	147.9%
				
4				
8 1st Baptist Minist 	      100	15.0%	355	97.0%
9 Shands At Starke Hosp	74	15.0%	272	117.2%
				
5				
Brevard				
23 Indian River Civic Center	306	54.1%	327	66.1%
24 Scottsmoor Fire Station	389	54.1%	764	90.0%
				
6				
115 Cape Canaveral Library	770	74.1%	834	71.8%
116 Travis Recreation Center	43	74.1%	54	59.3%
				
7				
150 Zion Christian Church	746	59.3%	921	73.3%
151 Palm Bay Commun Ctr	386	59.3%	364	68.0%
				
8				
Hernando				
36 - Hillside CC	       258	50.3%	264	67.5%
37 - Ridge Manor WClubH	281	50.3%	408	69.7%
				
9				
Hillsborough				
519	438	61.6%	624	80.6%
520	688	61.6%	939	77.5%
				
10				
119	506	48.6%	861	77.2%
121	654	66.1%	754	77.2%
				
11				
321	912	37.5%	108	63.5%
325	1065	43.6%	87	63.5%
				
12				
433	175	81.8%	288	74.4%
434	466	65.6%	660	74.4%
				
13				
658	141	95.3%	113	76.4%
659	451	62.6%	541	76.4%
				
14				
Lake				
3	155	44.0%	268	66.8%
4	332	64.7%	506	66.8%
				
15				
Leon				
4121	295	59.4%	330	70.8%
4123	330	58.6%	300	70.8%
				
16				
Marion				
8	232	50.1%	311	82.1%
9	723	50.1%	64	62.7%
				
17				
Miami-Dade				
143 1st CHURCH OF N MIAMI 1200 NE 135 ST	627	69.8%	124	74.7%
144 1st CHURCH OF N MIAMI 1200 NE 135 ST	236	69.8%	83	98.8%
				
18				
345 MIAMI SPRINGS RECR BLDG. 1401 WESTWARD DR	479	84.0%	491	87.7%
346 SPRINGVIEW ELEM SCHOOL 1122 BLUEBIRD AVE	377	84.0%	541	88.8%
				
19				
777 MIAMI ELK'S LODGE #948 10301 SW 72 ST	126	75.0%	190	65.5%
778 MIAMI ELK'S LODGE #948 10301 SW 72 ST	6	75.0%	21	60.0%
				
20				
288 OLINDA ELEM SCHOOL 5536 NW 21 AVE	5	41.7%	1	100.0%
289 MIAMI FIRE  ASSOC 2980 NW S RIVER DR	6	60.0%	33	100.0%
				
21				
407 MILDRED&CLAUDE PEPPER SR CTR     	131	76.6%	384	56.3%
408 RENTAL APTS 9517 FONTAINEBLEAU BD	553	92.2%	512	56.3%
				
22				
429 IGLESIA ADVENTISTA EBENEZER 6566 SW 33 ST	219	61.9%	392	58.0%
430 IGLESIA ADVENTISTA EBENEZER 6566 SW 33 ST	267	71.8%	598	58.0%
				
23				
Osceola				
81 First Baptist Church 	129	47.1%	128	54.5%
82 First Baptist Church	  8	47.1%	4	57.1%
				
24				
Polk				
412	1214	60.6%	793	82.6%
413	479	51.5%	618	82.6%
				
25				
Sarasota				
97	433	78.7%	408	58.2%
98	502	78.7%	627	61.9%
				
26				
Seminole				
22	580	56.6%	593	71.0%
23	305	66.7%	528	71.0%
				
27				
St Johns				
302 - Robert Ensslin Armory	      296	49.8%	614	59.2%
303 - Memorial Lutheran Church	226	44.1%	427	59.2%
				
				
____________________________________________________________

id	cty	prec.	type	instances	locations
	67	7302	Opt/TS     27	
					
1	Alachua 69	Op-Scan		
2	Baker	9	Op-Scan	  1     4c,4d
3	Bay	59	Op-Scan	  1	28,29
4	Bradford 22	Op-Scan	  2	8,9,6a,6b
5	Brevard 221	Op-Scan	  3	23,24,115,116,150,151
6	Broward1032	E-Touch	??	
7	Calhoun 15	Op-Scan		
8	Charlotte83	E-Touch    	
9	Citrus 41	Op-Scan		
10	Clay	64	Op-Scan	0	
11	Collier 96	E-Touch	0	
12	Columbia 25	Op-Scan		
13	DeSoto 15	Op-Scan		
14	Dixie	11	Op-Scan		
15	Duval	285	Op-Scan	??	
16	Escambia 91	Op-Scan	??	
17	Flagler 34	Op-Scan		
18	Franklin 10	Op-Scan		
19	Gadsden 27	Op-Scan		
20	Gilchrist10	Op-Scan		
21	Glades 13	Op-Scan		
22	Gulf	16	Op-Scan	
23	Hamilton 10	Op-Scan		
24	Hardee 12	Op-Scan		
25	Hendry 26	Op-Scan		
26	Hernando 56	Op-Scan	   1	36,37
27	Highlands27	Op-Scan		
28	Hillsbor360	E-Touch	   5	519,520,119,121,321,325,433,434,658,659
29	Holmes 18	Op-Scan		
30	IndianRiv57	E-Touch		
31	Jackson	28	Op-Scan		
32	Jefferson 15	Op-Scan		
33	Lafayette 7	Op-Scan		
34	Lake	    103 E-Touch	    1	 3,4
35	Lee	    225 E-Touch ??	
36	Leon	    116 Op-Scan	    1	4121,4123
37	Levy	    20 Op-Scan		
38	Liberty  10	Op-Scan		
39	Madison  11	Op-Scan		
40	Manatee 136 Op-Scan		
41	Marion 143	Op-Scan	    1	8,9
42	Martin 50	E-Touch		
43	MiamiDade872	E-Touch  6 143,144,345,346,777,778,288,289,407,408,429,430
44	Monroe 30	Op-Scan	  
45	Nassau 24	E-Touch	
46	Okaloosa 52	Op-Scan		
47	Okeechob 18	Op-Scan		
48	Orange 263	Op-Scan		
49	Osceola 93	Op-Scan	     1	81,82
50	PalmBch 695	E-Touch	     ??	
51	Pasco	172 E-Touch		
52	Pinellas 380	E-Touch	??	
53	Polk	161	Op-Scan	     1	412,413
54	Putnam 55	Op-Scan		
55	SantaRosa43	Op-Scan		
56	Sarasota 67	E-Touch	     1	97,98
57	Seminole 126 Op-Scan    1	22,23
58	StJohns 68	Op-Scan	     1	302,303
59	StLucie 75	Op-Scan		
60	Sumter 42	E-Touch		
61	Suwannee 19	Op-Scan		
62	Taylor 14	Op-Scan		
63	Union	11 Op-Scan		
64	Volusia 179	Op-Scan		
65	Wakulla 12	Op-Scan		
66	Walton 32	Op-Scan		
67	Wash'ton 21	Op-Scan		

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

And Gender fits right in with it, look what happens if you weigh the gender!

.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Impossible (5 precincts): More votes for Bush than registered in Baker 4c,4d;
Bradford 6a,6b,9

Implausible (4): Bradford 8 (97%), Brevard 24 (90%), Miami-Dade 144 (98.8%);
Miami-Dade 289 (100%)

In these 54 precincts, the average Bush/Rep reg turnout  = 77.1%
The average Kerry/Dem registration turnout = 55.1%


KV = Kerry vote
KP = KV/Dem. Reg
KVP = Kerry % precinct vote

BV = Bush vote
BP = BV/Rep. Reg
BVP = Bush % precinct vote

PRECINCT
Total/ Unweighted average	
     18704	55.4%	21769	77.1%	46.2%	53.8%

	KERRY		BUSH		Kerry	Bush
1	KV	KP	BV	BP	KVP	BVP
Baker				Impossible result		
4C	92	13.2%	411	120.9%	18.3%	81.7%
4D	68	13.2%	360	144.0%	15.9%	84.1%
						
2						
Bay						
28	167	19.6%	584	44.7%	22.2%	77.8%
29	198	19.6%	672	53.1%	22.8%	77.2%
						
3						
Bradford			Impossible result		
6A    31	14.4%	173	147.9%	15.2%	84.8%
6B 	28	14.1%	142	147.9%	16.5%	83.5%
						
4				Impossible result		
8	100	15.0%	355	97.0%	22.0%	78.0%
9	74	15.0%	272	117.2%	21.4%	78.6%
						
5						
Brevard						
23       306	54.1%	327	66.1%	48.3%	51.7%
24       389	54.1%	764	90.0%	33.7%	66.3%
						
6						
115       70   74.1% 34	71.8%	48.0%	52.0%
116       43	74.1%	54	59.3%	44.3%	55.7%
						
7						
150 	746	59.3%	921	73.3%	44.8%	55.2%
151 	386	59.3%	364	68.0%	51.5%	48.5%
						
8						
Hernando						
36 	258	50.3%	264	67.5%	49.4%	50.6%
37 	281	50.3%	408	69.7%	40.8%	59.2%
						
9						
Hillsborough						
519	438	61.6%	624	80.6%	41.2%	58.8%
520	688	61.6%	939	77.5%	42.3%	57.7%
						
10						
119	506	48.6%	861	77.2%	37.0%	63.0%
121	654	66.1%	754	77.2%	46.4%	53.6%
						
11						
321	912	37.5%	108	63.5%	89.4%	10.6%
325	1065	43.6%	87	63.5%	92.4%	7.6%
						
12						
433	175	81.8%	288	74.4%	37.8%	62.2%
434	466	65.6%	660	74.4%	41.4%	58.6%
						
13						
658	141	95.3%	113	76.4%	55.5%	44.5%
659	451	62.6%	541	76.4%	45.5%	54.5%
						
14						
Lake						
3	155	44.0%	268	66.8%	36.6%	63.4%
4	332	64.7%	506	66.8%	39.6%	60.4%
						
15						
Leon						
4121	295	59.4%	330	70.8%	47.2%	52.8%
4123	330	58.6%	300	70.8%	52.4%	47.6%
						
16						
Marion						
8	232	50.1%	311	82.1%	42.7%	57.3%
9	723	50.1%	64	62.7%	91.9%	8.1%
						
17						
Miami-Dade						
143 	627	69.8%	124	74.7%	83.5%	16.5%
144 	236	69.8%	83	98.8%	74.0%	26.0%
						
18						
345 	479	84.0%	491	87.7%	49.4%	50.6%
346 	377	84.0%	541	88.8%	41.1%	58.9%
						
19						
777 	126	75.0%	190	65.5%	39.9%	60.1%
778 	6	75.0%	21	60.0%	22.2%	77.8%
						
20						
288 	5	41.7%	1	100.0%	83.3%	16.7%
289 	6	60.0%	33	100.0%	15.4%	84.6%
						
21						
407 	131	76.6%	384	56.3%	25.4%	74.6%
408 	553	92.2%	512	56.3%	51.9%	48.1%
						
22						
429 	219	61.9%	392	58.0%	35.8%	64.2%
430 	267	71.8%	598	58.0%	30.9%	69.1%
						
23						
Osceola						
81 	129	47.1%	128	54.5%	50.2%	49.8%
82 	8	47.1%	4	57.1%	66.7%	33.3%
						
24						
Polk						
412	1214	60.6%	793	82.6%	60.5%	39.5%
413	479	51.5%	618	82.6%	43.7%	56.3%
						
25						
Sarasota						
97	433	78.7%	408	58.2%	51.5%	48.5%
98	502	78.7%	627	61.9%	44.5%	55.5%
						
26						
Seminole						
22	580	56.6%	593	71.0%	49.4%	50.6%
23	305	66.7%	528	71.0%	36.6%	63.4%
						
27						
St Johns						
302	296	49.8%	614	59.2%	32.5%	67.5%
303	226	44.1%	427	59.2%	34.6%	65.4%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Of course with the asshole deniers out there, a small minority on the left,
haggling over every last detail, there are many distractions.

The truth is coming out.  When the storm builds sufficiently, this and the rest
of the great work on election fraud will flourish unincumbered by haggling over
idioitic points.  Then we can ask our questions.

Obrador for President Site

The high percentages provided for Bradford and Baker can be explained by the
'Dixiecrat' theory but I believe it has already been disproved.

Pie Charts:

http://recountflorida.com/ufed/president.php?county=bradford

http://recountflorida.com/ufed/president.php?county=baker


Other possible reasons: 

1.) Election fraud 
2.) Poor voter registration record maintenance
3.) Something in the drinking water isolated within the county boundaries. 

This still doesn't explain the adjacent matches. There can only be 2
possibilities. 

1.) Natural voting trend
2.) Unnatural (i.e.: external influence, deliberate or not)


We have collected FL 2000 precinct data for comparison to establish if the
adjacent matches occurred before. It is an ongoing process since digitizing the
data will take some time. Once done, I'll have it posted here for your review.

Adolfo
www.recountflorida.com