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OHIO Exit Poll: Viewing the forest (state), not the trees (precincts)
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Original Post: OHIO Exit Poll: Viewing the forest (state), not the trees (precincts)
TruthIsAll Moderator Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
1399 posts
Wed Nov-02-05 11:57 PM
Original Post
 
 
Edited by TruthIsAll on Fri Nov-04-05 09:06 AM

Focus on the FOREST, not the TREES...
Let's look at the BIG PICTURE.

Do you agree that there was fraud in Ohio?
Do you agree that the purpose of fraud is to change the TRUE vote count?
Do you agree that fraud cost Kerry votes and enabled Bush?
Do you agree that fraud inflated the recorded Bush vote?

If you do, then:
Do you also agree that Kerry's TRUE vote must be closer to the Exit Poll? 
Do you believe that the discrepancy was due to shy rBr Bush voters?

Do you believe it was due to false Gore 2000 voter recall? 
 Well, you can't use THAT argument for the gender demographic.

If you do not believe it, what DO you believe?


               OHIO EXIT POLL ANALYSIS	

Final Update: Nov. 3, 12:21am 
Sample size: 1963 respondents
Margin of error:2.21%

ACCORDING TO THE EXIT POLL:
Kerry won the Male vote:51%
Kerry won the Female Vote:53%
Kerry won the total 2-party vote: 52.06-47.94%

Kerry won EVERY other demographic category 

The Probabilities:
that Kerry won Ohio, based on the exit poll Moe : 96.61%
that Bush would get his recorded vote: 1 in 187 (0.53%)

A total of 5.635 million voted. According to the
1) Exit poll, Kerry won by 233,000 votes (52.06-47.94%), a 4.12% margin.
2) Recorded vote, Bush won by 119,000 votes (51.06-48.94%), a 2.12% margin.

Of course, if you believe that the count was accurate, you must also believe
that there was a) no fraud or that b)the fraud was equally distributed between
Bush and Kerry. If you believe (a) or (b) you must also then DISBELIEVE the
documented evidence of overwhelming Bush enabling fraud in Ohio.

Let's a little think.
Assume X was the TRUE Kerry vote.
Since there was massive documented fraud, we know that the Kerry recorded vote
must have been LESS than his TRUE vote, so X > 48.94%. According to the exit
poll, Kerry's vote was 52.06%, or 3.12% above his recorded vote. 

Assume that X = 52.06%, although that may still be less than the TRUE vote.
Given X = 52.06%, what fraction of the 3.12% discrepancy could have been due to
documented fraud? For that answer, we must FURTHER analyze the evidence (but not
here)...  

GIVEN ALL OF THIS, which do you believe is CLOSER to the TRUTH: 
The Exit poll or the RECORDED vote count?

				
			OHIO EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY	
				
								Probability
                                                     	Kerry   Kerry Bush
CATEGORY		Kerry 	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Margin	 Win   1 in

GENDER		        52.06%	47.94%	2.934	2.701	0.232	96.61%	187
RACE/GENDER		51.76%	48.24%	2.917	2.718	0.198	94.06%	90
RACE			51.58%	48.42%	2.907	2.728	0.178	91.93%	60
AGE			51.39%	48.31%	2.896	2.722	0.174	89.10%	77
INCOME			52.40%	47.13%	2.953	2.656	0.297	98.33%	1862

EDUCATION		50.94%	48.77%	2.870	2.748	0.122	79.76%	29
PARTY ID		51.80%	47.57%	2.919	2.681	0.238	94.47%	504
IDEOLOGY		51.10%	48.90%	2.879	2.756	0.124	83.52%	23
VOTED 2k		50.70%	49.30%	2.857	2.778	0.079	73.25%	11
RELIGION		50.96%	48.78%	2.872	2.749	0.123	80.26%	28

DECIDED			50.96%	48.94%	2.872	2.758	0.114	80.26%	21
BUSH JOB		50.12%	49.88%	2.824	2.811	0.014	54.23%	5
Community
SIZE1			51.17%	48.45%	2.883	2.730	0.153	85.01%	56
SIZE2			51.33%	48.67%	2.892	2.743	0.150	88.08%	35
REGION			51.57%	48.09%	2.906	2.710	0.196	91.80%	129
SENATE			51.96%	48.04%	2.928	2.707	0.221	95.88%	146
									
AVERAGE			51.36%	48.46%	2.894	2.731	0.163	88.64%	54
									
ACTUAL			48.71%	50.82%	2.740	2.859	-0.119	3.07%	2
									

Demographics/Calculations:
				
GENDER	Mix	Votes	Kerry	Bush
Male 	47%	2.65	51%	49%
Female	53%	2.99	53%	47%
	100%		52.06%	47.94%
		5.635	2.934	2.701
RACE/GENDER				
WM 	40%	2.25	47%	53%
WF	45%	2.54	47%	53%
NWM	7%	0.39	75%	25%
NWF	8%	0.45	82%	18%
	100%		51.76%	48.24%
		5.635	2.917	2.718
				
VOTED BEFORE?				
No	14%	0.79	55%	45%
Yes	86%	4.85	50%	50%
	100%		50.70%	49.30%
		5.635	2.857	2.778
				
				
				
AGE				
18-29	21%	1.18	60%	40%
30-44	30%	1.69	50%	49%
45-59	29%	1.63	51%	49%
60-	20%	1.13	45%	55%
	100%		51.39%	48.31%
		5.635	2.896	2.722
				
INCOME				
0-15	7%	0.39	73%	27%
15-30	16%	0.90	66%	34%
30-50	25%	1.41	53%	46%
50-75	22%	1.24	44%	55%
75-100	15%	0.85	50%	50%
100-150	9%	0.51	44%	56%
150-200	4%	0.23	39%	61%
200-	2%	0.11	39%	61%
	100%		52.40%	47.13%
		5.635	2.953	2.656
EDUCATION				
NoHS	4%	0.23	60%	40%
HSGrad	29%	1.63	53%	46%
College	28%	1.58	50%	50%
ColGrad	25%	1.41	47%	53%
Post	14%	0.79	53%	47%
	100%		50.94%	48.77%
		5.635	2.870	2.748
				
PARTY ID				
Dem	38%	2.14	91%	8%
Rep	37%	2.08	6%	94%
Ind	25%	1.41	60%	39%
	100%		51.80%	47.57%
		5.635	2.919	2.681
				
IDEOLOGY				
Lib	21%	1.18	87%	13%
Mod	47%	2.65	61%	39%
Con	32%	1.80	13%	87%
	100%		51.10%	48.90%
		5.635	2.879	2.756
				
				
RELIGION				
Prot	56%	3.16	46%	54%
Cath	26%	1.47	46%	53%
Jewish	1%	0.06	76%	24%
Other	6%	0.34	76%	24%
None	11%	0.62	72%	28%
	100%		50.96%	48.78%
		5.635	2.872	2.749
				
WHEN DECIDED				
Today	5%	0.28	60%	40%
3Days	4%	0.23	64%	36%
Week 	2%	0.11	64%	36%
Month	10%	0.56	62%	37%
Before	79%	4.45	48%	52%
	100%		50.96%	48.94%
		5.635	2.872	2.758
REGION				
Cuya 	13%	0.73	65%	35%
NE	27%	1.52	55%	45%
Cent	23%	1.30	47%	52%
NW	11%	0.62	50%	49%
SW	26%	1.47	46%	54%
	100%		51.57%	48.09%
		5.635	2.906	2.710
				
HOW BUSH IS HANDLING HIS JOB				
Appro	51%	2.87	7%	93%
Disap	49%	2.76	95%	5%
	100%		50.12%	49.88%
		5.635	2.824	2.811
				
SIZE OF COMMUNITY				
BCities	7%	0.39	50%	49%
SmCiti   19%	1.07	62%	38%
Suburbs	49%	2.76	51%	49%
SmTowns	6%	0.34	55%	43%
Rural	19%	1.07	40%	59%
	100%		51.17%	48.45%
		5.635	2.883	2.730
				
SIZE OF COMMUNITY				
Urban	26%	1.47	59%	41%
Suburb 	49%	2.76	51%	49%
Rural 	25%	1.41	44%	56%
	100%		51.33%	48.67%
		5.635	2.892	2.743
RACE				
White	86%	4.85	47%	53%
Black	9%	0.51	84%	16%
Latino	3%	0.17	72%	28%
Asian	1%	0.06	72%	28%
Other	1%	0.06	72%	28%
	100%		51.58%	48.42%
		5.635	2.907	2.728
				
				
VOTE FOR U.S. SENATE				
Dem	43%	2.42	93%	7%
Rep	57%	3.21	21%	79%
	100%		51.96%	48.04%
		5.635	2.928	2.707

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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17 replies to this thread:
OHIO Exit Poll: Viewing the forest (state), not the trees (precincts) , TruthIsAll, Wed Nov-02-05 11:57 PM
#1: WOW! This is the best one for Ohio yet!, All_The_States, Nov 03rd 2005
#2: Why don't you email Ron Baiman after the weekend, sunshinekathy, Nov 03rd 2005
#3: "There you go again." Confusing us with the fact., autorank, Nov 03rd 2005
#5: ITS TIME! PIN OTOH / FEBBLE / ESI / MITOFKSY DOWN ..., TruthIsAll, Nov 04th 2005
#12: There never was any, All_The_States, Nov 04th 2005
#8: You forgot the reluctant androgynous Bush responder, davidgmills, Nov 04th 2005
#15: You remembered! I'm so flattered. One of my favorites., autorank, Nov 04th 2005
#4: For OTOH and FEBBLE: your move..., TruthIsAll, Nov 04th 2005
#6: Febble emailed me with her response., davidgmills, Nov 04th 2005
#7: I'm not TIA, but...., All_The_States, Nov 04th 2005
#11: Post it on DU and PI. Make sure you include a link to this thread on DU., TruthIsAll, Nov 04th 2005
#9: Mercury, the winged messenger brings Febble's reply:, davidgmills, Nov 04th 2005
#10: Febble is still obsufucating the Gender problem!, All_The_States, Nov 04th 2005
#13: Febble, thanks for your response., TruthIsAll, Nov 04th 2005
#14: Remember I can not post on DU., davidgmills, Nov 04th 2005
#16: Excellent work again TIA and thanks Autorank for the DU link!, helderheid, Nov 05th 2005
#17: I second that. Thanks!, bleever, Nov 05th 2005

Reply #1: WOW! This is the best one for Ohio yet!
All_The_States  Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 18th 2005
894 posts
Thu Nov-03-05 08:07 AM
In response to Original Post

Clear is right!

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Reply #2: Why don't you email Ron Baiman after the weekend
sunshinekathy  Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Oct 31st 2005
231 posts
Thu Nov-03-05 11:24 AM
In response to Original Post

Perhaps you could assist Ron Baiman with re-writing his Ohio exit poll analysis?

He and I really do need more help lately.

Email me at kathy at uscountvotes.org and I'll give you his email address.

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Reply #3: "There you go again." Confusing us with the fact.
autorank Donor2 Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
2119 posts
Thu Nov-03-05 11:07 PM
In response to Original Post

 
 

Well, even I know that when you win both gender demos, you win the election.

Why is this so hard?  Oh, I forgot, endless bullshit debate on increasingly
smaller parces of the data, ad infinitum.  Zeno was right, some people are
incapable of movement.

Great post.  Thank you.

(Did you read mine on NM?;)

Obrador for President Site

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Reply #5: ITS TIME! PIN OTOH / FEBBLE / ESI / MITOFKSY DOWN ...
TruthIsAll Moderator Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
1399 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 08:35 AM
In response to Reply #3

 
 
Edited by TruthIsAll on Fri Nov-04-05 08:59 AM

ENOUGH OF THIS BULLSHIT!
WTF IS THEIR HYPOTHESIS FOR THE EXIT POLL DISCREPANCIES?
WE KNOW IT'S NOT RANDOM CHANCE.
SO WHAT IS IT?
THE ONUS IS ON THEM.

THE ONLY REASONABLE HYPOTHESIS IS MASSIVE FRAUD-IT IS BORNE OUT OF THE FACTS ON
THE GROUND.

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO EVIDENCE FOR ANY OTHER EXPLANATION. IS IT
 RBR?
 FALSE RECALL?
 INEXPERIENCED POLLSTERS?
 RIGGED EXIT POLLS?

IF THAT IS THEIR CLAIM, WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE?
LET THEM PROVE THEIR HYPOTHESES.

OUR HYPOTHESIS THAT THE EXIT POLLS ARE CORRECT IS SUPPORTED BY THE FOLLOWING:
THE GAO REPORT.
THE BOGUS OHIO RECOUNT.
THE MASSIVE DEMOCRATIC REGISTRATION.
THE MASSIVE DEMOCRATIC DISENFRANCHISEMENT.
BLACKWELL.
DIEBOLD.
ETC. ETC. ETC.

MEANS, MOTIVE, OPPORTUNITY

WHERE IS THEIR EVIDENCE?




http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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Reply #12: There never was any
All_The_States  Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 18th 2005
894 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 01:43 PM
In response to Reply #5

It's all one concrete lie, and there is no evidence that there was no fraud.

The only evidence, if I was a judge judging this case, is that there was fraud. Massive fraud disenfranchising voters regardless of which way it tipped.

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Reply #8: You forgot the reluctant androgynous Bush responder
davidgmills deactivated Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 15th 2005
2668 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 10:53 AM
In response to Reply #3

 
 

raBr.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

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Reply #15: You remembered! I'm so flattered. One of my favorites.
autorank Donor2 Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
2119 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 10:20 PM
In response to Reply #8

 
 

:evilgrin:

Obrador for President Site

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Reply #4: For OTOH and FEBBLE: your move...
TruthIsAll Moderator Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
1399 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 04:31 AM
In response to Original Post

 
 
Edited by TruthIsAll on Fri Nov-04-05 05:37 AM

Focus on the FOREST, not the TREES...
Let's look at the BIG PICTURE.

Do you agree that there was fraud in Ohio?
Do you agree that the purpose of fraud was to enable one candidate?
Do you agree that fraud cost Kerry votes and enabled Bush?
Do you agree that fraud would inflate the recorded Bush vote?

If you do, then:
Do you agree that Kerry's TRUE vote must have been closer to the Exit Poll? 
Do you believe that the discrepancy was due to shy rBr Bush voters?

Do you believe it was due to false Gore recall? 
Well, you can't use THAT argument for the gender demographic.

What DO you believe?

We are waiting here, since we can't go there. 
 

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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Reply #6: Febble emailed me with her response.
davidgmills deactivated Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 15th 2005
2668 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 10:46 AM
In response to Reply #4

 
 

Do you want it posted here or would you prefer her to post it on DU?

Unless you let me know by 5pm central, I will not be able to post it till
Monday.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

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Reply #7: I'm not TIA, but....
All_The_States  Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 18th 2005
894 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 10:48 AM
In response to Reply #6

I would love to see it here and so would Kathy, to find out just how misinformed this report by the ESI actually is.....

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Reply #11: Post it on DU and PI. Make sure you include a link to this thread on DU.
TruthIsAll Moderator Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
1399 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 12:55 PM
In response to Reply #6

 
 

Thanks

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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Reply #9: Mercury, the winged messenger brings Febble's reply:
davidgmills deactivated Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 15th 2005
2668 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 10:58 AM
In response to Reply #4

 
 

Focus on the FOREST, not the TREES...
Let's look at the BIG PICTURE.

Do you agree that there was fraud in Ohio?
Depends what you call fraud - there was definitely voter suppression that cost
Kerry thousands of votes. 
This included inequitable provision of voting machines in Franklin County, and
inequitable issuing of provisional ballots in Cuyahoga. There was probably
more.  I am not in a position to say whether it was deliberate but it strikes
me as being at the very least illegal - a violation of Civil Rights
legislation.  But then I'm not a lawyer.  I also think that Blackwell's
behaviour strongly suggests he had something to hide, which might indicate
actual fraud.  I'd like to see him in jail.  I agree there could well have been
literal fraud in Ohio.
Do you agree that the purpose of fraud was to enable one candidate?
Well I certainly know of no evidence that there was fraud in favour of Kerry or
any of the independents, so yes, I would agree that to the extent that I think
there was fraud, it was designed to benefit Bush.
Do you agree that fraud cost Kerry votes and enabled Bush?
 
I agree that Kerry was the net loser from all irregularites.
 
Do you agree that fraud would inflate the recorded Bush vote?
No. It might.  But the kind of outcome-changing irregularity for which I
believe there is best evidence would inflate Bush's vote-share, but not his
vote.  I think the best evidence is for destruction of votes in Kerry
precincts.

If you do, then:
Do you agree that Kerry's TRUE vote must have been closer to the Exit Poll?
Well, as I have not answered yes, maybe I'm not entitled to answer this, but I
will anyway.  I think that if there was fraud in Ohio it was designed to get
under the exit poll radar.  I don't think the exit poll is a good indicator of
the magnitude of fraud in Ohio.  It could have been less.  It could even have
been greater (though I doubt the latter).  But either way, I think that if all
those who had intended to vote for Kerry had had their votes cast and and
counted then the result in Ohio would have been closer to the close-of-poll
exit poll projection than it was.  On the other hand, as I think the exit poll
discrepancy was substantially due to polling bias, then had that happened, I
think the exit polls would have projected an even bigger vote share than his
true vote-share. In other words I think that Kerry might have been defrauded
out of Ohio, but that the exit poll discrepancy was at least partly due to
polling bias that would have happened anyway. 

Do you believe that the discrepancy was due to shy rBr Bush voters?


I think was most likely to have been mainly due to polling bias, and if you
want to call that rBr, then yes.  I think that Bush voters probably
participated in the poll at a lower rate than Kerry voters.  However, I think
that at least part of the discrepancy was probably due to Kerry voters, largely
African-American Kerry voters, being issued with provisional ballots, and those
ballots being rejected.  This would tend not show up in ESI's analysis, if it
was a part of a pattern of voter disenfranchisement that also occurred in 2000,

 
Do you believe it was due to false Gore recall? 
Well, the discrepancy can't be due to false Gore recall - as far as I know,
no-one is claiming that.  It doesn't make any sense.  But regarding Gore voters
in Ohio, I haven't looked at the data. Have you?
Well, you can't use THAT argument for the gender demographic.
I'm not using any gender argument.
 

What DO you believe?

We are waiting here, since we can't go there.
 
Well I can't go there, so we are a bit stuck unless David posts this message.
 
Nice to hear from you TIA! Glad you found a new home.
 
Febble
 
PS: you have asked these questions in "do you believe?" format, and I
have answered them in the same vein.  However, my answers have nothing to do
with "belief" - i.e. they are not faith-based.  They are my current
views based on what I have seen of the evidence.  I will say, I am more
convinced of the magnitude of Kerry's loss to "irregularities" in
Ohio now than I was.  However, I am afraid that this is NOT because of the exit
poll evidence, which I still think is largely useless (despite your sterling
efforts to convince me otherwise) except to tell us what kind of fraud is least
likely.  It is because of evidence being uncovered at precinct level by tireless
DU investigators.
 
Oh, and I do believe Kerry probably won New Mexico.  Despite the fact that the
exit poll discrepancy was fairly small.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

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Reply #10: Febble is still obsufucating the Gender problem!
All_The_States  Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 18th 2005
894 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 11:04 AM
In response to Reply #9

Its fine she has answers to all these questions, but why no clearly scientific explanation of what happened with the Gender vote?!????

Just say yes or no- Was the exit poll deliberately rigged to screw up Gender both times, or were votes across gender switched from Kerry to Bush & third parties?

When will there be an answer?

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Reply #13: Febble, thanks for your response.
TruthIsAll Moderator Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
1399 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 01:44 PM
In response to Reply #9

 
 
Edited by TruthIsAll on Fri Nov-04-05 01:51 PM

Something tells me we are really on the same page.

Febble, you're a tease. I always get the feeling that you are on the verge of
making the break from the dark side. Well, some day.

In any case, I'll say this: To your credit, I knew you would respond quickly. 

We agree on many things. Here is where we differ:

I believe Bush attempted to steal it.And he was successful.

You believe BushCo committed fraud. But you are not convinced that they needed
to, because he probably got more votes anyway.

I believe the exit polls are closer to the truth. And since I believe BushCo
stole it, logically, they must be. The polling discrepancies are primarily due
to fraud.

I assume you must also believe the exit polls are closer to the truth, but that
the discrepancies are only partially due to fraud.

I believe Mitofsky knows how to construct accurate exit polls.
You apparently agree with his negative assessment of his own work.

I will try to be careful here, but it must be said.
I have no allegiance to anyone.
I have no benefactor.
All of my analysis, every model I have developed, is a result of my own
initiative.

My motivation is to clarify, not obscure the facts.
I do better at creating than I do at debunking.

A final note. Forgive the caps. I just can't help myself.
IT'S NOT JUST THE EXIT POLLS.
WHAT ABOUT THE PRE-ELECTION POLLS?
WHY DON'T YOU TRY THE INTERACTIVE MODEL?

LET'S CONTINUE THE "GAME" THREAD.
WE CAN ALL RUN IT ONLINE AND PLAY WHAT-IF IN REAL TIME.
LET'S SEE HOW YOU AND OTOH PUT TOGETHER A PLAUSIBLE BUSH VICTORY.

PRE-ELECTION OR EXIT POLLS; STATE OR NATIONAL.
TAKE YOUR PICK. IT'S ALL THERE.

LET'S DO IT REAL TIME.
USING REAL NUMBERS.
RUNNING REAL SCENARIOS.
BASED ON TANGIBLE ASSUMPTIONS 
NO FANCY FUNCTIONS.

LET'S DO IT.
ARE YOU GAME?
DO YOU HAVE EXCEL?





 




  

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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Reply #14: Remember I can not post on DU.
davidgmills deactivated Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 15th 2005
2668 posts
Fri Nov-04-05 04:10 PM
In response to Reply #13

 
 

Someone else will have to provide the link.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

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Reply #16: Excellent work again TIA and thanks Autorank for the DU link!
helderheid Donor2 Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 15th 2005
27 posts
Sat Nov-05-05 11:19 AM
In response to Original Post

 
 

Clarity

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Reply #17: I second that. Thanks!
bleever Donor Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
9 posts
Sat Nov-05-05 01:07 PM
In response to Reply #16

:salute: 

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