Of course, I mean the near-pristine National Exit Poll at the 12:22am time line
(13047 respondents), NOT the Final at 1:25pm, which was highly contaminated
when it was forced to match the (cough) recorded DRE-enabled vote count.

When we determined that the National Exit Poll (1:25pm, 13660 respondents)
demographic "HOW VOTED IN 2000" Bush/Gore 43/37% weightings were
totally impossible, simple logic dictated that all the other demographic
weights and/or percentages had to be fiction as well. 

If only ONE demographic which has been matched to the vote is proven to be
impossible, then all other demographics, likewise matched to the vote, must
also be impossible. A further bonus: we get to eat our cake and keep it, too,
because that also proves that the final vote must be bogus.

That's a very simple deduction, yet it's a difficult concept for sophisticated
naysayers to accept, even though they surely see the logic. Give them credit;
they are expert in throwing fog in truth's way.

"How voted in 2000" was easy to disprove - the basic weightings are
directly verifiable. That's why we won the infamous GAME thread, the scene of
my last post at DU. Proving that the other ten demographics are also bogus is
more much more difficult. For example, how does one verify the turnout (weight)
of age 6o+ voters as a percent of the total 2004 vote?

We've already dealt with How Voted in 2000 (the orginal Clincher), Gender,
Party-ID and Region in other threads. Here's more evidence to throw at the
naysayers. 

Today we use the Census voting survey to add three more demographics to the
growing list of Final National Exit Poll implausibilities: Race/gender, Income
and Education. The equivalent census demographic weights match very closely to
the National Exit Poll (13047). Compare. Kerry wins them all.

Four demographics remain to be toppled: religion, when decided, age and
ideology.

Later.
________________________________________________________________

                   CENSUS 2004 DEMOGRAPHIC VOTE ANALYSIS															

The purpose of this analysis is to determine how closely the Census
demographics (race/gender, income and education) matched the National Exit Poll
(12:22am). The popular vote split is calculated using exit poll percentages
applied to the equivalent census weights.

For these three demographics, Kerry's National Exit Poll margin ranged from
2.75 - 4.89 million votes. His Census margin ranged from 2.17 - 2.21 million,
assuming the 2004 recorded vote total: 122.27 million. But according to the
Census,  125.74 million voted. 

That's plausible. We know millions of votes (mostly democratic) are spoiled or
lost in each election. Mitofsky doesn't match the final exit poll to include
spoiled votes, unfortunately - he only matches to the vote count.

Hmmm....  

________________________________________________________________

	    Census vs. National Exit Poll Vote Demographic Summary										
											
DEMOGRAPHIC											
	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry				
	Pct	Pct	Pct	Vote	Vote	Vote	Margin				

EDUCATION											
NatExit 50.43%	48.18%	1.39%	61.66	58.91	1.70	2.75				
Census  50.21%	48.40%	1.40%	61.39	59.18	1.71	2.20				
											
RACE AND GENDER											
NatExit 50.94%	47.86%	1.00%	62.28	58.52	1.22	3.77				
Census  50.30%	48.52%	1.00%	61.50	59.33	1.22	2.17				
											
INCOME											
NatExit 51.39%	47.39%	0.94%	62.83	57.94	1.15	4.89				
Census	50.30%	48.50%	0.93%	61.50	59.30	1.13	2.21				
											
________________________________________________________________
											
											
EDUCATION											
Nat Exit Poll 

      Pct	Total	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader			
	Mix	Votes	Pct	Pct	Pct	Vote	Vote	Vote			
NoHS	   4%	4.89	53%	46%	1%	2.59	2.25	0.05			
HSGrad  22%	26.90	50%	48%	2%	13.45	12.91	0.54			
College 31%	37.90	48%	51%	1%	18.19	19.33	0.38			
ColGr	  26%	31.79	49%	50%	1%	15.58	15.90	0.32			
PostG	  17%	20.79	57%	41%	2%	11.85	8.52	0.42			
											
Total	  100%	122.27	50.43%	48.18%	1.39%	61.66	58.91	1.70			
											
											
CENSUS

      Pct	Total	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader			
	 Mix	Votes	Pct	Pct	Pct	Vote	Vote	Vote			
NoHS	8.06% 	9.85	53%	46%	1%	5.22	4.53	0.10			
HSGr 	28.55%	34.91	50%	48%	2%	17.45	16.76	0.70			
Col 	30.96%	37.85	48%	51%	1%	18.17	19.31	0.38			
ColGr	21.14%	25.85	49%	50%	1%	12.67	12.92	0.26			
PostG	11.30%	13.82	57%	41%	2%	7.88	5.66	0.28			
											
Total 100%	122.27	50.21%	48.40%	1.40%	61.39	59.18	1.71			
										
________________________________________________________________
											
											
RACE AND GENDER											
National Exit Poll

	Pct	Total	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader			
	Mix	Votes	Pct	Pct	Pct	Vote	Vote	Vote			
											
WM	36%	44.02	41%	58%	1%	18.05	25.53	0.44			
WF	41%	50.13	47%	52%	1%	23.56	26.07	0.50			
NWM	10%	12.23	69%	28%	1%	8.44	3.42	0.12			
NWF	13%	15.90	77%	22%	1%	12.24	3.50	0.16			
											
Total	100%	122.27 50.94%	47.86%	1.00%	62.28	58.52	1.22			
											
											
CENSUS	
      Pct	Total	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader			
	Mix	Votes	Pct	Pct	Pct	Vote	Vote	Vote			
											
White 79.19%	96.82	44.19%	54.81%	1%	42.79	53.06	0.97			
NonW  20.81%	25.45	73.52%	24.61%	1%	18.71	6.26	0.25			
											
Total 100%	122.27	50.30%	48.52%	1.00%	61.50	59.33	1.22			
											
________________________________________________________________
											
											
INCOME											
National Exit Poll

	Pct	Total	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader			
	Mix	Votes	Pct	Pct	Pct	Vote	Vote	Vote			

0-15K    9%	11.00	65%	34%	1%	7.15	3.74	0.11			
15-30   15%	18.34	60%	38%	1%	11.00	6.97	0.18		
30-50	  22%	26.90	53%	46%	1%	14.26	12.37	0.27			
50-75	  23%	28.12	46%	53%	1%	12.94	14.90	0.28			
											
75-100  13%	15.90	48%	51%	0%	7.63	8.11	0.00			
100-150 11%	13.45	45%	53%	2%	6.05	7.13	0.27			
150-200  4%	 4.89	47%	53%	0%	2.30	2.59	0.00			
200+     3%  3.67    41%	58%	1%	1.50	2.13	0.04			
											
Total 100%	122.27	51.39%	47.39%	0.94%	62.83	57.94	1.15			
											
CENSUS	
      Pct	Total	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader			
	Mix	Votes	Pct	Pct	Pct	Vote	Vote	Vote			

0-15K 5.73%   7.01    65%	34%	1%	4.56	2.38	0.07			
15-30 12.08% 14.77	60%	38%	1%	8.86	5.61	0.15			
30-50 20.58% 25.16	53%	46%	1%	13.33	11.57	0.25			
50-75 24.02% 29.37	46%	53%	1%	13.51	15.57	0.29			
											
75-100 15.70%  19.19	48%	51%	0%	9.21	9.79	0.00			
100-150 13.55% 16.57	45%   53%	2%	7.46	8.78	0.33			
150-200 5.34%  6.53  47%    53%	0%	3.07	3.46	0.00			
200+ 	 3.00%   3.67  41%   58%	1%	1.50	2.13	0.04			
											
Total  100%	122.27 50.30% 48.50% 0.93%  61.50  59.30	1.13			
											

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

n/t

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

Boy someone needs to post this everywhere, especially the Gender analysis. I'd be amazed if Mitofsky even has a rebuttal, he'll probably go silent. Dr. Other & company wouldn't be able to handle themselves!

kiwi_expat (427 posts) Mon Oct-17-05 08:34 AM
Response to Reply #30
32. Why assume that ALL 1:25pm demographics are "impossible"?
Edited on Mon Oct-17-05 09:08 AM by kiwi_expat

"If only ONE demographic which has been matched to the vote is proven to be impossible, then all other demographics, likewise matched to the vote, must also be impossible." -TIA

Everyone (Mitofsky, included) agrees that the final exit poll demographics are made-up ("fiction", if you like). But that doesn't automatically make them incorrect. Some might be correct and some might not be. Mitofsky probably focused on making some demographics plausible (e.g., gender) and neglected others.

_________________________________________________________________

Well Kiwi, here's why: Simple Logic.

LET A= HOW VOTED DEMOGRAPHIC
LET B = VOTE COUNT

IF A = FALSE THEN
IF A = B
THEN B = FALSE
ENDIF
ENDIF

LET C = INCOME DEMOGRAPHIC

IF C= B THEN
IF B = FALSE (which it is, see above)
THEN C= FALSE
ENDIF
ENDIF


AND SO ON FOR ALL OTHER DEMOGRAPHICS

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Do you get the feeling that people just don't care about logic?

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me