EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER	
7/9/05 5:26 AM

This analysis confirms the USCV simulation.

Bye, bye rBr: 
The K/B alpha response ratio is not uniform across precincts.
It's much higher in Bush strongholds than in Kerry strongholds.

Given the data: 						
1- Bush 2-party vote (51.24%)						
2- Exit poll response by Partisanship category			
3- "Within Precinct Error" (WPE) by partisanship
category

Determine the following:						
1- Exit poll results - aggregate and by partisanship
category	
2- K/B (alpha) - aggregate and by partisanship category 		
3- Required Bush percentage of refusers
4. Probability of deviation from exit poll to vote

KEY RESULTS:
1. Kerry won 52.15% of the 2-party vote, 3.39% higher than
his recorded 48.76%,
2. Kerry won 51.63% of the total vote, 3.35% higher than his
recorded 48.28%.
3. Kerry won 63.127mm votes, 4.10 more (6.50%) than his
recorded vote.
4. Bush won 57.929 mm votes, 4.10 less (7.08%) than his
recorded vote.
5. Of the 4.10mm vote shift, 3.45 were in competitive and
moderate Bush precincts.

6. Minimum aggregate alpha (k/b) is 1.155. The 1.12 stated at
AAPOR is NOT feasible.
7. Alpha is 1.062 in Kerry strongholds, compared to 1.214 in
other categories.
8. Alpha steadily increases from High Kerry (1.0)  to High
Bush (1.50) categories, indicating a positive correlation
between vote discrepancy and Bush partisanship.

9.Bush needed 55.13% of refusers for his recorded 51.24%
2-party vote, compared to 47.85% of responders.
						
10. The probability of a 3.39% discrepancy between the exit
poll and vote is 1 in 63 billion.


2004	2-PTY	2-PTY	TOTAL			
VOTE	PCT	VOTE	COUNT			
Kerry 	48.76%	59.027	48.28%			
Bush	51.24%	62.029	50.73%			
Total	100%	121.056	122.267			

EXIT POLL						
Kerry 	52.15%	63.127	51.63%			
Bush	47.85%	57.929	47.38%			
Diff	-3.39%	-4.10	-3.35%			
Diff/K	-6.50%	-6.50%	-6.50%			
Diff/B	-7.08%	-7.08%	-7.08%			
						
PROBABILITY of a 3.39% discrepancy between exit poll and
vote:
 1 in	62,953,509,332				
						
PARTISAN ALPHA						
Kerry strongholds:1.062					
All Other: 1.214					
						

WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)						
Response - R	53.59%					
K/B - alpha	1.158					

PERCENT OF EXIT POLL REFUSERS						
Kerry 	44.87%					
Bush	55.13%					
						
PARTISANSHIP RANGE CONSTRAINTS						
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90	
						
KERRY WIN%						
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%	
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%	
						
RESPONSE						
Min	56%	55%	52%	55%	53%	
Max	56%	55%	52%	55%	53%	
						
ALPHA (K/B)						
Min	0	0	0	0	0	
Max	10	10	10	10	10	
						
WPE						
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
						
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
						
						
		OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY				
						
	Poll	Count	%Diff	Poll	Count	Diff(mm)
Kerry	52.15%	48.76%	-3.39%	63.127	59.027	-4.100
Bush	47.85%	51.24%	3.39%	57.929	62.029	4.100
Diff	4.29%	-2.48%	-6.77%	5.199	-3.002	-8.201
						
Pship	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	Total
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90	1250
Votes	3.87	40.19	52.30	15.98	8.72	121.056
Pct	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%	100.0%
						
RESP.	56.0%	55.0%	52.0%	55.0%	53.0%	53.59%
DevAvg	2.4%	1.4%	-1.6%	1.4%	-0.6%	0.0%
						
ALPHA						
K/B	1.500	1.187	1.156	1.098	0.996	1.158
K/ 50B	75.0	59.3	57.8	54.9	49.8	57.9
DevAvg	29.5%	2.5%	-0.2%	-5.2%	-14.0%	0.0%

VOTE						
Kerry	0.77	13.11	28.58	9.59	6.97	59.027
Pct	20.0%	32.6%	54.6%	60.0%	80.0%	48.76%
						
Bush	3.10	27.08	23.72	6.39	1.74	62.029
Pct	80.0%	67.4%	45.4%	40.0%	20.0%	51.24%
						
RESPONDERS						
Kerry	0.97	14.34	30.80	10.06	6.96	63.127
Pct	25.0%	35.7%	58.9%	63.0%	79.9%	52.15%
						
Bush	2.91	25.85	21.49	5.92	1.76	57.929
Pct	75.0%	64.3%	41.1%	37.1%	20.2%	47.85%
						
REFUSERS						
Kerry	13.6%	28.9%	50.0%	56.4%	80.2%	44.87%
Bush	86.4%	71.1%	50.0%	43.6%	19.8%	55.13%

VOTE DEVIATION						
Kerry	-0.19	-1.23	-2.22	-0.47	0.01	-4.10
Pct	-20.0%	-8.5%	-7.2%	-4.7%	0.2%	-6.5%

WPE						
Calc	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.77%
Diff	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

 

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Amazing stuff and I thought I've seen it all.

Just be very careful on the book tour.