State exit poll Gender analysis and the 2004 Census Voter survey have just been
added to the Excel Interactive Election Model.


Survey     Size       MoE     Female Male

Census     70,000    0.36%    53.51% 46.49% 
State      72,714    0.37%    53.76% 46.24%
National   13,047    0.88%    54.00% 46.00% (E-M round to 1%)

They are THAT close.
Why is this significant?
Read on.
										

                 THE  GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC										
										
The Gender demographic is the most important one of all. It's from this simple
split that the most accurate exit poll results are derived, because only one
question is asked: who did you vote for? 

The combined weifgted State exit polls (over 73,000 respondents) indicated that
there was a 53.76% female/ 46.24% male vote split.	
									
The 12:22am National Exit poll (13047 respondents) had a 54/46% split with a
1.0% MoE. The split is rounded so we do not know exactly how close they
match.										

The Census 2004 voter survey (60,000 + respondents) indicated a 53.51/46.49%
split with a 0.30% MoE. 

All three surveys matched very closely as one would expect considering those
slim MoE's.										

Since the 12:22am National Exit Poll gender split matched to the census and
weighted state exit polls, and Kerry led in all the polls except the Final
13660, how could he have lost?

Does the Law of Large Numbers not apply in this election? 													

Three voter massive surveys matched the gender vote split to within 0.25%. 

How could the final recorded vote percentage deviate from these exit polls by
2.50%?	

The state exits show Kerry getting 47.94% of men and 52.25% of women as
compared to the 13047 National Exit Poll (47% and 54%, respectively).

Forget the Final National Exit 13660, which shows Kerry getting 51% of women
and 44% of the men. That's impossible. We already know that from the How Voted
in 2000 demographic.
	
___________________________________________________________________

STATE EXIT POLL SUMMARY										
Nov. 3, 12:22am, 72,714 respondents																	

Gender	Mix	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Nader					
Female	53.76%	65.68	52.25%	47.14%	0.61%
Male	46.24%	56.49	47.94%	51.06%	1.01%
					
Total	100%		50.26%	48.95%	0.79%					
Votes		122.17	61.34	60.19	0.49					
										
										
___________________________________________________________________
										
CENSUS 2004 VOTER SURVEY

The Census counted 125.7mm voters - that's 3.5mm over the recorded vote. Lost
in cyberspace?
								

GENDER
	Census	Nat	State				
VOTE	Survey	12:22am 12:22am				
Female 53.51%	54%	53.76%				
Male	46.49%	46%	46.24%				
							
	Total	          Registered	     Not registered	    Voted	

BOTH SEXES          Pop.	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
TOTAL	            215,694 142,070	65.9	73,624	34.1	125,736 58.3
							
.18 to 24 years	27,808	14,334	51.5	13,474	48.5	11,639	41.9
.25 to 44 years	82,133	49,371	60.1	32,763	39.9	42,845	52.2
.45 to 64 years	71,014	51,659	72.7	19,355	27.3	47,327	66.6
.65 to 74 years	18,363	14,125	76.9	4,239	23.1	13,010	70.8
.75 years        +	16,375	12,581	76.8	3,794	23.2	10,915	66.7
							
								
								
MALE								
.Total 18 years+  103,812   66,406	64.0	37,406	36.0	58,455	56.3	
.18 to 24 years	13,960	6,731	48.2	7,229	51.8	5,415	38.8	
.25 to 44 years	40,618	23,403	57.6	17,215	42.4	19,913	49.0	
.45 to 64 years	34,471	24,676	71.6	9,795	28.4	22,520	65.3	
.65 to 74 years	8,438	6,534	77.4	1,904	22.6	6,119	72.5	
.75 years       + 	6,325	5,062	80.0	1,263	20.0	4,489	71.0	
								
FEMALE								
.Total 18 years+   111,882  75,663	67.6	36,219	32.4	67,281	60.1	
.18 to 24 years	13,848	7,603	54.9	6,245	45.1	6,224	44.9	
.25 to 44 years	41,515	25,967	62.5	15,548	37.5	22,932	55.2	
.45 to 64 years	36,544	26,984	73.8	9,560	26.2	24,807	67.9	
.65 to 74 years	9,926	7,591	76.5	2,335	23.5	6,891	69.4	
.75 years       + 	10,049	7,519	74.8	2,531	25.2	6,426	63.9
							
							
Footnotes:							
Note: 'Not registered' includes 'did not register to vote,' 'do not know,' and
'not reported.'  							

'Did not vote' includes 'did not vote,' 'do not know,' and 'not
reported.'							
							
										
___________________________________________________________________
										

NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE									

	Sample	Gender Vote  Kerry	Vote Pct				
Update	Size	Female	Male	Female	Male	Total				

4:00pm	8349	58%	42%	53%	47%	50.48%				
7:33pm	11027	54%	46%	54%	47%	50.78%				
12:22am	13047	54%	46%	54%	47%	50.78%				

1:25pm	13660	54%	46%	51%	44%	47.78%				
										
										

Nov. 3, 12:22am, 
13047 respondents										
										
	Mix	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other					
Male	46.00%	56.20	47.00%	52.00%	1.00%					
Female	54.00%	65.97	54.00%	45.00%	1.00%					
										
Total	100.00%		50.78%	48.22%	1.00%					
		122.17	62.04	58.91	1.22					
										
										
___________________________________________________________________
										
										
STATE EXIT POLLS- THE GENDER VOTE										

Sample	   Gender Vote		Kerry	Gender Vote				
Update	Size	Female	Male	Female	Male	Total				
12:22am 72714	53.76%	46.24%	52.25%	47.94%	50.26%				
										
Total	   Percent split	 Vote split	Kerry percent    Kerry vote 		
State	Vote	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Total
Total	122.17	53.76%	46.24%	65.683	56.488	52.25%	47.94%	34.323	27.078	61.400
										
AL	1.883	54.92%	45.08%	1.034	0.849	46.0%	35.0%	0.476	0.297	0.773
AK	0.312	52.48%	47.52%	0.164	0.148	45.0%	32.5%	0.074	0.048	0.122
AZ	2.013	53.47%	46.53%	1.076	0.936	50.0%	43.5%	0.538	0.407	0.945
AR	1.056	57.00%	43.00%	0.602	0.454	50.5%	41.0%	0.304	0.186	0.490
CA	12.392	53.44%	46.56%	6.622	5.770	58.5%	52.5%	3.874	3.029	6.903
										
CO	2.128	53.94%	46.06%	1.148	0.980	50.5%	47.0%	0.580	0.461	1.040
CT	1.579	53.47%	46.53%	0.844	0.735	59.5%	55.5%	0.502	0.408	0.910
DC	0.227	56.44%	43.56%	0.128	0.099	62.5%	51.5%	0.080	0.051	0.131
DE	0.375	57.43%	42.57%	0.215	0.160	91.5%	87.5%	0.197	0.140	0.337
FL	7.604	54.00%	46.00%	4.106	3.498	52.0%	47.0%	2.135	1.644	3.779
										
GA	3.299	56.44%	43.56%	1.862	1.437	46.0%	39.5%	0.856	0.568	1.424
HI	0.429	54.00%	46.00%	0.232	0.197	57.0%	49.0%	0.132	0.097	0.229
ID	0.598	55.90%	44.10%	0.334	0.264	36.5%	30.0%	0.122	0.079	0.201
IL	5.275	54.46%	45.54%	2.873	2.402	58.5%	55.5%	1.681	1.333	3.014
IN	2.468	52.48%	47.52%	1.295	1.173	42.5%	39.5%	0.550	0.463	1.014
										
IA	1.505	54.46%	45.54%	0.820	0.685	52.0%	47.5%	0.426	0.326	0.752
KS	1.188	55.45%	44.55%	0.659	0.529	35.0%	33.5%	0.231	0.177	0.408
KY	1.796	54.46%	45.54%	0.978	0.818	42.5%	38.5%	0.416	0.315	0.731
LA	1.939	55.45%	44.55%	1.075	0.864	47.5%	40.5%	0.511	0.350	0.860
ME	0.741	53.47%	46.53%	0.396	0.345	58.0%	49.5%	0.230	0.171	0.400
										
MD	2.384	54.46%	45.54%	1.298	1.086	58.5%	54.5%	0.760	0.592	1.351
MA	2.905	53.44%	46.56%	1.553	1.353	69.5%	62.5%	1.079	0.845	1.925
MI	4.838	51.00%	49.00%	2.467	2.371	54.0%	50.0%	1.332	1.185	2.518
MN	2.823	52.48%	47.52%	1.481	1.341	54.5%	53.5%	0.807	0.718	1.525
MS	1.138	53.00%	47.00%	0.603	0.535	43.0%	43.0%	0.259	0.230	0.489
										
MO	2.731	53.47%	46.53%	1.460	1.271	47.5%	47.5%	0.694	0.604	1.297
MT	0.450	50.02%	49.98%	0.225	0.225	37.5%	39.0%	0.084	0.088	0.172
NE	0.777	52.00%	48.00%	0.404	0.373	36.0%	36.0%	0.145	0.134	0.280
NV	0.826	52.48%	47.52%	0.433	0.392	53.5%	45.5%	0.232	0.179	0.410
NH	0.676	49.51%	50.49%	0.335	0.341	57.5%	52.5%	0.193	0.179	0.372
										
NJ	3.610	53.37%	46.63%	1.927	1.683	51.5%	49.5%	0.992	0.833	1.825
NM	0.756	54.46%	45.54%	0.412	0.344	56.0%	51.0%	0.231	0.176	0.406
NY	7.389	53.00%	47.00%	3.916	3.473	67.0%	60.0%	2.624	2.084	4.707
NC	3.501	53.00%	47.00%	1.855	1.645	51.0%	45.0%	0.946	0.740	1.687
ND	0.313	51.49%	48.51%	0.161	0.152	36.5%	29.5%	0.059	0.045	0.104
										
OH	5.625	53.00%	47.00%	2.981	2.644	53.0%	51.0%	1.580	1.348	2.929
OK	1.464	52.48%	47.52%	0.768	0.696	36.0%	33.5%	0.277	0.233	0.510
OR	1.828	56.35%	43.65%	1.030	0.798	57.5%	43.5%	0.592	0.347	0.939
PA	5.766	53.00%	47.00%	3.056	2.710	56.5%	52.0%	1.727	1.409	3.136
RI	0.436	53.47%	46.53%	0.233	0.203	65.0%	60.5%	0.152	0.123	0.274
										
SC	1.616	57.43%	42.57%	0.928	0.688	49.0%	40.5%	0.455	0.279	0.733
SD	0.388	49.51%	50.49%	0.192	0.196	38.0%	35.5%	0.073	0.070	0.143
TN	2.437	52.48%	47.52%	1.279	1.158	42.0%	39.5%	0.537	0.457	0.995
TX	7.410	54.92%	45.08%	4.070	3.341	34.5%	40.0%	1.404	1.336	2.740
UT	0.927	54.92%	45.08%	0.509	0.418	30.0%	29.0%	0.153	0.121	0.274
										
VT	0.311	55.00%	45.00%	0.171	0.140	65.5%	62.0%	0.112	0.087	0.199
VA	3.193	53.00%	47.00%	1.692	1.501	52.0%	44.0%	0.880	0.660	1.540
WA	2.857	57.86%	42.14%	1.653	1.204	58.0%	50.0%	0.959	0.602	1.561
WV	0.756	53.47%	46.53%	0.404	0.352	45.0%	44.5%	0.182	0.157	0.338
WI	2.993	53.47%	46.53%	1.600	1.393	53.0%	45.5%	0.848	0.634	1.482
WY	0.243	50.02%	49.98%	0.122	0.121	34.5%	29.0%	0.042	0.035	0.077

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

You totally rock!!!!

This is the analysis I've been waiting for!!!! I hope you guys post it at DU, KOS and everywhere else, the gender analysis has been ignored and it totally outlaws all of Mitofsky's arguments.

I can't wait for this thing to spread....It's time for the nation to know the truth!!!

											
STATE EXIT POLLS											
Nov. 3, 12:22am, 72,714 respondents											
											
Gender	Mix	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Nader						
Female	53.76%	65.68	52.36%	47.04%	0.61%						
Male	46.24%	56.49	47.97%	51.02%	1.01%						
											
Total			50.33%	48.88%	0.79%						
Votes 		122.17	61.49	59.72	0.97	

Compare to the Race/Gender 50.30% demographic using census weights
 and the National Exit Poll 50.94% Gender demographic.		

	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry
	Pct	Pct	Pct	Vote	Vote	Vote	Margin

EDUCATION							
NEP   50.43%	48.18%	1.39%	61.66	58.91	1.70	2.75
Census	50.21%	48.40%	1.40%	61.39	59.18	1.71	2.20
							
RACE AND GENDER							
NEP   50.94%	47.86%	1.00%	62.28	58.52	1.22	3.77
Census	50.30%	48.52%	1.00%	61.50	59.33	1.22	2.17
							
INCOME							
NEP   51.39%	47.39%	0.94%	62.83	57.94	1.15	4.89
Census	50.30%	48.50%	0.93%	61.50	59.30	1.13	2.21
					
											

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

You say initially that the census had 70,000 people with a MOE of .36%.

Later you say the census has 60,000 people with an MOE of .30%.

Why the difference?  If only one is right, which one?


On edit:

Can you briefly explain the "law of large numbers" and it's
significance to this analysis?

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me