victory confirmation is here to stay.
Not for a year
But ever and a day

In time the Naysays will crumble
their Straw men will tumble
They're only made of clay but
the truth is here to stay



The exit polls are NOT the whole story. What about the pre-election state polls matching the 18 nationals within .04%?

The exit poll rbR (reluctant Bush responder) argument is moot.
There goes that one.
So is the sorry "false Gore recall".
There goes that one.

These are PRE-ELECTION POLLS.
And they match the exits; Kerry won them all.

Very low MoE when you take 18 national polls and add 'em up.
That's one big fat poll of 27000. Naysayers, add your own cluster effect - 30%? 40%? 60%? It won't make a diff.

Kerry won. He did even better than Gore did. Every day, slowly but surely, more and more folks are coming around to see the light.

How much proof do you need? This is NOT a court of law. It's the court of public opinion. And Bush is not doing too well there.

Will the DU naysayers claim that 18 pre-election national polls were all wrong? Or that 50 state polls were wrong? Or that Kerry did not win the undecided vote?

Which of the naysayers will comment on this Excel model?

http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/Intera...

Who will dive right in and run the scenarios?

As for the accusation of national pre-election poll "cherry-picking", the numbers are right in the model with link to pollingreport.com and the "Economist" YouGov final poll of 3000+ which showed Kerry winning by 49-45.
There goes that one.

Let the New Game commence. Even though I'm no longer on DU, as usual, the numbers are far more poweful than anything I could ever say. And the numbers don't have my short-fuse. So I'll just watch and wait.

Can't get banned for that.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

What a great read, from left to right. The last two, the rigged exit and the rigged election are so obviously out of place!

Great stuff!

Obrador for President Site

And they match the exits; Gore won them all.
should be:
Kerry won them all.

BTW, I need all you who have Excel to load the model ASAP. Tell me if there is a problem. I just want to make sure it comes up with no errors. I've had no problems whatsoever.

There are many new features. Just select each sheet using the tabs.
Here are the sheets changed:

Introduction:
Revised and added OHIO exit poll analysis as an example of calculating probabilities using the normal distribution function.

Main:
Increased the simulation trials from 200 to 500.

Voted2000:
Added the "clincher: sensitivity analysis: Kerry margin vs. Gore turnout/Kerry share of new voters.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

let the blinds see!
thanks tia

How do they argue rBr with a straight face?

Where was the rBr when they were doing the polling prior to the election?

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

I've heard alot lately that the "final vote" for Kerry's pre-election polls was different than the first released polls?

They said his final polls showed him behind in all but two polls, where did you view these polls at?

How would you debunk this ridiculous argument?

Also how does the pre-election polls fit in with the impossible gender number....The gender problem to me is the smoking gun, saying "fire! fire! we have a fire here" and no one talks about it!

Its on the NationalPre sheet.

Fully documented. Final 18 pre-election polls. A mix of RV and LV.

Kerry was slightly ahead by 0.5% (weighted average), exactly tied unweighted.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

It looks like on here...

http://pollingreport.com/2004.htm#Pollster

That the final pre-election polls have Kerry behind in every sample, besides three or two???

Can anyone explain this and how it figures into the exit-poll analysis?

											
			18 FINAL NATIONAL PRE-ELECTION POLLS								
	Polling Data Source:										
	http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm										
	http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovS.pdf										

	18 Poll Summary:										
	Kerry won 9, Bush 8, 1 tied										
	Kerry won 5 of 9 Registered Voter (RV) Polls										
	          and 4 of 9 Likely Voter (LV) Polls										
											
	Undecided to Kerry:	67%									
	Projection based on undecided allocation and weighted sample-size										
	Kerry 	50.59									
	Bush 	48.41									
	Other	1.00									
											
					Unwtd Average		   Weighted average		    Wtd Avg Projection		
		Size	Voters	MoE	BUSH	KERRY	BUSH	KERRY	BUSH	KERRY	
		27229	Sampled	0.59%	47.39	47.39	47.06	47.46	48.41	50.59	
											
1	Zogby	1200	LV	2.83%	48	47	2.12	2.07	49.99	49.01	
2	Marist	1166	LV	2.87%	49	50	2.10	2.14	49.90	49.10	
3	TIPP	1284	LV	2.73%	47	44	2.22	2.07	49.06	49.94	
4	CBS	1125	RV	2.92%	48	47	1.98	1.94	48.59	50.41	
5	Harris	1509	LV	2.52%	49	48	2.72	2.66	50.06	48.94	
											
6	FOX	1400	RV	2.62%	45	48	2.31	2.47	47.28	51.72	
7	DemCorp	1018	LV	3.07%	47	48	1.76	1.79	47.48	51.52	
8	Gallup	1866	RV	2.27%	46	48	3.15	3.29	48.51	50.49	
9	NBC	1014	LV	3.08%	48	47	1.79	1.75	50.28	48.72	
10	ABC	3511	RV	1.65%	48	47	6.19	6.06	49.50	49.50	
											
11	ARG	1258	LV	2.76%	48	49	2.22	2.26	50.55	48.45	
12	Pew	2408	RV	2.00%	45	46	3.98	4.07	44.90	54.10	
13	Nwk	1005	RV	3.09%	48	44	1.77	1.62	49.48	49.52	
14	ICR	817	RV	3.43%	48	48	1.44	1.44	48.21	50.79	
15	LATimes	1698	RV	2.38%	47	48	2.93	2.99	48.63	50.37	
											
16	Time	803	LV	3.46%	51	46	1.50	1.36	51.07	47.93	
17	AP	976	LV	3.14%	46	49	1.65	1.76	46.89	52.11	
18	Econ	3171	RV	1.74%	45	49	5.24	5.71	46.31	52.69	
											
											
	 Probabilities:										
	1) Kerry winning a popular vote majority:			100.00%							
	2) Kerry deviation from	50.59%	projection to the final 48.31%:    1
in			30,532,879	mm				
	3) Bush deviation from 	48.41%	projection to the final 50.77%:    1
in			281,474,977	mm				
											
	BUSH	KERRY									
											
			Zogby Poll								
1 LV	48	47	10/4-31/04 REUTERS/ZOGBY TRACKING POLL: 3-day rolling sample of
approx. 1,200 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.9. 								
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other			
				10/29-31/04	48	47	1	4			
											
2 LV	49	50	Marist College Poll. Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,166 registered voters
nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,026 likely voters (MoE ± 3).								
					Bush	Kerry	Unsure				
				11/1/2004	49	50	1				
											
3 LV	47	44	TIPP tracking poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence.
Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,284 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.8.   								
					Bush	Kerry					
				10/30 - 11/1/04	47	44					
4 RV	48	47	CBS News Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,125 likely voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3. 								
					Bush/	Kerry/			
					Cheney	Edwards			
				10/29 - 11/1/04	48	47			
									
5 LV	49	48	The Harris Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004: N=1,509 likely voters
nationwide who express a preference. MoE ± 2.5.						
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other (vol.)	
				10/29 - 11/1/04	49	48	2	1	
									
6 RV	45	48	FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 30-31, 2004. N=1,400 registered
voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,200 likely voters (MoE ± 3).						
					George	John	Other 	Wouldn't	
					W. Bush	Kerry	Not Sure	Vote (vol.)	
				10/30-31/04	45	48	7	-	
									
7 LV	47	48	Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
(D). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,018 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.						
					George	John	Ralph	Other	Unsure
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	(vol.)	
				10/29-31/04	47	48	1	1	3

8 RV	46	48	CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,866 registered
voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,573 likely voters (MoE ± 3).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other	None/
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	(vol.)	Unsure
				10/29-31/04	46	48	1	1	4

9 LV	48	47	NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling
organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004.
N=1,014 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	None/	Unsure
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Other (vol.)	
				10/29-31/04	48	47	1	2	2
									
10 RV	48	47	ABC News Tracking Poll and Washington Post Tracking Poll. Rolling
sample. Fieldwork by TNS. ABC News and The Washington Post share data
collection for this tracking poll, but calculate and report the results
independently. WASHINGTON POST: Oct. 28-31, 200						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	None/	No
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Wouldn't	Opinion
			ABC News Tracking Poll 						
				10/28-31/04	48	47	1	2	2
									
									
11 LV	48	49	American Research Group Poll. Oct. 28-30, 2004. N=1,500 registered
voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 1,258 likely voters (MoE ± 2.8).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Other/		
					Cheney	Edwards	Unsure		
					48	49	3		
12 RV	45	46	Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted
by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 27-30, 2004. N=2,408
registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 1,925 likely voters (MoE ± 2.5).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other/	
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Unsure	
				10/27-30/04	45	46	1	8	
									
13 RV	48	44	Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates
International. Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=1,005 registered voters nationwide (MoE ±
4); 882 likely voters (MoE ± 4).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other (vol.)/	
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Undecided	
				10/27-29/04	48	44	1	7	
14 RV	48	48	ICR/International Communications Research poll. Oct. 22-26, 2004.
N=817 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3.4); 741 likely voters (MoE ±
3.6).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Other	Neither	Unsure
					Cheney	Edwards	(vol.)	(vol.)	
				10/22-26/04	48	48	-	1	4
									
15 RV	47	48	Los Angeles Times Poll. Oct. 21-24, 2004. N=1,698 registered voters
nationwide (MoE ± 3); 881 likely voters (MoE ± 3).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Unsure		
					Cheney	Edwards			
				10/21-24/04	47	48	5		
									
16 LV	51	46	Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI)
Public Affairs. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=1,059 registered voters nationwide (MoE ±
3); 803 likely voters (MoE ± 4). 						
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	Unsure	
				10/19-21/04	51	46	2	1	
									.
17 LV	46	49	Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Oct.
18-20, 2004. N=1,330 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 976 likely voters
(MoE ± 3).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other/	
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	None (vol.)/	
				10/18-20/04	46	49	2	3	
									
18 RV	45	49	Economist magazine  YouGov poll						
			3171	total; MoE +/-2%					
					Bush	Kerry			
					45	49			

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

I can now see that the only reason Bush was ahead in the pre-election polls, was
the undecideds hadn't been calculated....

Now if only there was a way to correlate the pre-election polls with gender and
so on this would really prove it. 

ATS

1)Bush was tied at 47.39 with Kerry, BEFORE the undecideds, based on the simple,
unweighted average of 18 polls.

2)a 3000 sample poll should be weighted 3X that of a 1000 sample poll
When the polls aree weighted for sample size, Kerry leads by 47.46-47.06.

3) Finally, with  67% undecided for Kerry, he leads by 50.5-48.5 -at minimum.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

But the polls were confusing, because alot of the polls had Bush ahead (red
marks) with the rest tied. How do you compute the national average using these
pre-election polls to get your result?

What is your source?
Are you looking at the 18 polls I reference in the model?

Why are you confused?

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

"If the election for U.S. president were held today and you had to make a
choice, for whom would you vote: George W. Bush, the Republican, OR John Kerry,
the Democrat?"   If unsure:  "And which candidate do you lean toward
slightly?"   Names rotated
					

.
	
		Bush 	Kerry 	Nader
(vol.) 	Other (vol.)/
Unsure 	
		% 	% 	% 	% 	
	

Lake Snell Perry/Celinda Lake VOTE PROJECTION, with undecideds allocated: 
	10/31 - 11/1/04 	48.6 	50.7 	  	  	 
					

.
	
	10/31 - 11/1/04 	50 	46 	1 	4 	
	10/27-28 & 31/04 	49 	46 	- 	5 	
	10/25-28/04 	50 	45 	- 	5 	
	10/18-21/04 	49 	45 	1 	6 	
	10/11-14/04 	49 	46 	1 	5 	
	10/4-7/04 	49 	46 	- 	5 	
	9/27-30/04 	51 	44 	1 	4 	
	9/20-23/04 	50 	45 	- 	5 	
	9/13-16/04 	49 	45 	1 	5 	
					

.
	
	8/15-17/04 	47 	49 	- 	4 	
	6/20-23/04 	48 	48 	1 	4 	
	3/28-31/04 	48 	49 	1 	3 	

 

TIPP tracking poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Oct. 30-Nov.
1, 2004. N=1,284 likely voters nationwide. MoE � 2.8.   <GRAPHIC>
				

.
	

"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the
following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John
Kerry, Republican George W. Bush or independent Ralph Nader?" If unsure:
"And who do you lean more toward -- would you say Kerry, Bush or
Nader?" Kerry and Bush rotated, with Nader always last
				

.
	
		Bush 	Kerry 	Nader 	Other 		
	  	% 	% 	% 	% 		
	

VOTE PROJECTION, with undecideds allocated:
		
	10/30 - 11/1/04 	50.1 	48.0 	1.1 	0.8 		
				

.
	
		Bush 	Kerry 	Nader 	Other/
Unsure 		
	  	% 	% 	% 	% 		
	

Among likely voters:
	10/30 - 11/1/04 	48.6 	45.3 	0.9 	5.2 		
	10/29-31/04 	47 	45 	1 	8 		
	10/28-30/04 	48 	43 	1 	7 		
	10/26-29/04 	46 	44 	2 	8 		
	10/25-28/04 	46 	46 	2 	6 		
	10/24-27/04 	47 	44 	2 	7 		
	10/23-26/04 	48 	44 	2 	6 		
	10/22-25/04 	49 	43 	2 	6 		
	10/21-24/04 	50 	42 	2 	6 		
	10/20-23/04 	49 	43 	2 	6 		
	10/?-22/04 	48 	44 	2 	5 		
	10/18-21/04 	47 	46 	2 	5 		
	10/17-20/04 	48 	45 	2 	5 		
	10/16-19/04 	47 	46 	1 	5 		
	10/15-18/04 	48 	46 	2 	5 		
	10/14-17/04 	49 	45 	2 	5 		
	10/13-16/04 	48 	45 	2 	5 		
	10/12-15/04 	48 	45 	2 	5 		
	10/11-14/04 	47 	44 	2 	7 		
	10/10-13/04 	47 	44 	2 	7 		
	10/9-12/04 	47 	44 	2 	7 		
	10/7 & 9-11/04 	47 	44 	2 	7 		
				

.
	
	

Trend, among likely voters, without leaners:
	9/22-27/04 	45 	45 	2 	8 		
	9/14-18/04 	45 	42 	2 	11 		
	9/7-12/04 	46 	46 	3 	5 		
				

.
	
	

Trend, among registered voters, without leaners:
	9/22-27/04 	44 	44 	2 	10 		
	9/14-18/04 	43 	42 	3 	12 		
	9/7-12/04 	43 	45 	3 	9 		
	8/17-23/04 	43 	43 	5 	10 		
	8/2-5/04 	42 	45 	5 	8 		
	7/19-24/04 	42 	44 	3 	11 		
	7/12-17/04 	40 	42 	4 	15 		
	7/6-10/04 	43 	47 	4 	6 		
	6/14-19/04 	44 	41 	6 	10 		
	6/8-13/04 	43 	40 	5 	12 		
	6/1-6/04 	43 	41 	7 	9 		
	5/12-18/04 	42 	41 	7 	11 		
	5/2-8/04 	46 	41 	5 	7 		
	4/16-22/04 	44 	40 	3 	14 		
	4/14-19/04 	44 	40 	4 	13 		
	3/29 - 4/3/04 	43 	45 	5 	8 		
	3/8-11/04 	45 	40 	6 	8 		
	3/1-7/04 	41 	44 	6 	8"

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

I'm trying to assess what you're saying but it looks like the vote-projection
had Bush ahead in these polls?? Was there more for them being tied, or for
Kerry or Bush being ahead?

In the first pre-election polls I looked at on http://pollingreport.com , it
looked like Bush had won almost 5 polls (there was a red number next to each
one, are these pre-weighted?) and I'm trying to see if there's anything I
missed here.

Thanks again. 

to your list.

LOOK AT THE 18 POLLS IN POST#8. 
THESE ARE FINAL PRE-ELECTION NATIONAL POLLS.
KERRY WON 9 OF THEM. 

THE UNWEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE 18 SHOWS AN EXACT TIE.
THAT'S 18 POLLS WITH A TOTAL 27,000 SAMPLE SIZE.
THAT'S EQUIVALENT TO ONE FAT POLL
THE MOE IS 0.59%.
OH, YOU WANT A 60% CLUSTER EFFECT?
IT'S NOW 1.0%
THAT WILL MAKE THE TROLLS HAPPY.
NOT.

NOT ALL POLLS ARE CREATED EQUAL. 
BIGGER IS BETTER.
SO IT MAKES SENSE TO WEIGH THE 18 POLLS BASED ON SAMPLE SIZE.
AND DOING THIS, LO AND BEHOLD, KERRY HAS A 0.40% LEAD.

NOW ADD 60% OF THE UNDECIDED VOTE TO KERRY.
WHO WINS?
IT'S VERY SIMPLE.

DO YOU YOU HAVE EXCEL?
HAVE YOU LOOKED AT THE MODEL?
THE LINK TO THE MODEL IS AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST.

LET'S GET WITH THE PROGRAM:
1) READ POST # 8
2) RUN THE MODEL IF YOU HAVE EXCEL.
3) SPEND TIME FAMILIARIZING YOURSELF WITH THE DATA AND METHODOLOGY.

IT'S ALL THERE.
IT'S IN THE MODEL.

EVERYTHING YOU NEED:
PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS
PRE-ELECTION NATIONAL POLLS
STATE EXIT POLLS
NATIONAL EXIT POLLS

THEY ALL SHOW THAT BUSH COULD NOT HAVE WON.
THE NUMBERS ARE TELLING ME THAT.
DON'T BE FOOLED BY THOSE NAYSAYING TROLLS ON DU.

RUN THE ELECTORAL AND POPULAR VOTE SIMULATIONS.
HIT THE F9 KEY. 
IT WILL RUN 500 SIMULATED ELECTIONS.
VERY POWERFUL.

CHECK OUT THE EXPECTED ELECTORAL VOTE.
CHECK OUT THE PROBABILTIES.

PLAY WHAT-IF BY CHANGING KERRY'S UNDECIDED VOTE PERCENT.

SAVE TIME. 
VIEW THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: 
OVER 100 SCENARIOS OF KERRY'S VOTE AND WINNING MARGIN,
BASED ON GORE VOTER TURNOUT AND KERRY PCT OF NEW VOTERS.

COMPARE THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINES:
 13047 RESPONDENTS (12:22AM) VS. THE FINAL 13660

KERRY WON ALL FINAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHICS AT 12:22AM
BUT THE FINAL EXIT POLL WAS MATCHED TO THE VOTE.
IT ASSUMED THAT THE VOTE COUNT WAS ACCURATE.
LOL.

LOOK AT THE "HOW VOTED IN 2000" SHEET.
ITS A MAJOR SMOKING GUN.
NO WAY IN HELL THAT 43% OF 2004 VOTERS WERE BUSH 2000 VOTERS.
IMPOSSIBLE. 
IT'S A  BOGUS WEIGHTING. 
IT WAS 39% AT MOST. 
THE BUSH VOTE IS INFLATED BY AT LEAST 4 MILLION.

PROOF?
HE ONLY GOT 50.54MM VOTES IN 2000.
DO THE MATH: X = (50.5 - 1.75)/122 
THAT'S HIS MAXIMUM CAUSE...
1.75 MILLION VOTERS DIED.
REALLY. 

ITS FUNDAMENTAL.
PEOPLE DIE.
EVEN BUSH VOTERS.

AND IF THE BUSH TURNOUT IS SET TO A REALISTIC 39%,
THEN KERRY WON BY 6-8 MILLION VOTES. 

Those are just a few reasons why you need to download the model...

DON'T BOTHER TO SAVE IT TO YOUR HARD DRIVE.
NOT NECESSARY.
USE IT AS AN ONLINE REFERENCE WHILE YOU POST. 

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Its strange too if I had excel I could run it to see the same thing but I don't
have microsoft excel(this computer is not very useful, imo)but what I notice is
that, even though Bush was leading certain pre-election polls like Gallup, when
you average out the whole set of pre-election polls Kerry automatically wins.

Then if you add-in just like you said the undecideds & turnout, Kerry wins
by a large chunk. 

I wonder if these "pre-election" polls could be used to get the
gender weightings though, because I know the exit-polls already have gender
weightings(biggest smoking gun bar-none since the exits are nearly
infallible)but I do not know if Zogby, Gallup, AP or IP-Ispos used
gender-weightings pre-election.

Do you know if they even sampled people by gender, anyone have access to that
data at all yet? 

I never saw a pre-election poll broken down by gender.

Get Excel. 

Set you back 100 bucks or so.
Its well worth it.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

The TRUTH is busting out all over...

Plug:

Check out the latest version of the Interactive Election Model (the SECOND link below).

More features.
More evidence.
More fun.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.