WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED IN NEW JERSEY?

In 2000, Gore won NJ by 56-41%.
Gore won the final 100,000 recorded votes by 61-38%.
(not included in the County Data) 

In 2004, Kerry won NJ by 53-46%.
Kerry won the final 200,000 recorded votes by 57-42%.
(not included in the County Data) 

Notice a pattern here?

According to the National Exit Poll, 
1) only 17% of Nader voters defected to Bush.
2) Kerry won new voters (those who did not vote in 2000) by 57-41%. 
But Kerry probably did better than 57% in NJ, a strong Democratic state.
3) Kerry won 10% of Bush 2000 voters, Bush 8% of Gore voters.

Conservatively assuming an EQUAL defection of Gore and Bush NJ voters, Kerry
should have won by 58-41%, a 17% margin compared to the recorded 7% margin. 

So where did Bush find 386,000 new voters in NJ? 


According to the NJ Exit Poll (based on the pristine WPE, before it was
contaminated by matching to the recorded vote) Kerry won by 17%.
Kerry 57.8%; Bush 41.4%; Other 0.8%

According to the Election Calculator model,
Kerry won the state by 680,000 votes: 58.7-40.3%

		2000 Recorded					2004 Calculated 			
Voted	Rec	Unctd	Cast	Deaths	Alive		Turnout	Voted	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
							DNV 	0.70	18.9%	58%	40%	2%
Gore	1.79	0.12	1.91	0.10	1.81		95%	1.72	46.4%	92%	7%	1%
Bush	1.28	0.03	1.32	0.06	1.26		95%	1.19	32.2%	10%	90%	0%
Nader	0.09	0.01	0.10	0.00	0.10		95%	0.09	2.5%	71%	21%	8%
												
Total	3.17	0.17	3.33	0.16	3.17		3.01	3.71	100%	58.67%	40.29%	1.04%
									3.71 	2.18 	1.50 	0.04 

Sensitivity Analysis I
					
		Kerry NJ Vote Share			
Gore 	 
share		Gore Voter Turnout			
unctd	93.0%	94.0%	95.0%	96.0%	97.0%

85.0%	58.7%	58.8%	59.0%	59.2%	59.4%
80.0%	58.5%	58.7%	58.8%	59.0%	59.2%
75.0%	58.3%	58.5%	58.7%	58.8%	59.0%
70.0%	58.2%	58.3%	58.5%	58.7%	58.8%
65.0%	58.0%	58.2%	58.3%	58.5%	58.7%
					
		 Kerry Margin			
85.0%	0.68 	0.70 	0.71 	0.72 	0.73 
80.0%	0.67 	0.68 	0.70 	0.71 	0.72 
75.0%	0.66 	0.67 	0.68 	0.69 	0.71 
70.0%	0.64 	0.66 	0.67 	0.68 	0.69 
65.0%	0.63 	0.64 	0.66 	0.67 	0.68 


Sensitivity Analysis II					

		Kerry NJ Vote Share			

Kerry share	of
Gore	 New voters (DNV in 2000)			
Vote	53.0%	55.0%	57.0%	59.0%	61.0%

95.0%	59.1%	59.5%	59.9%	60.3%	60.6%
93.0%	58.2%	58.6%	58.9%	59.3%	59.7%
91.0%	57.3%	57.6%	58.0%	58.4%	58.8%
89.0%	56.3%	56.7%	57.1%	57.5%	57.8%
87.0%	55.4%	55.8%	56.2%	56.5%	56.9%
					
		 Kerry Margin			
95.0%	0.72 	0.74 	0.77 	0.80 	0.83 
93.0%	0.65 	0.67 	0.70 	0.73 	0.76 
91.0%	0.58 	0.61 	0.63 	0.66 	0.69 
89.0%	0.51 	0.54 	0.56 	0.59 	0.62 
87.0%	0.44 	0.47 	0.50 	0.52 	0.55 



WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED IN OCEAN COUNTY?
In 2000, Bush won by 3,000 votes: 102,000-99,000
In 2004, Bush won by 51,000 votes: 144,000-93,000, a 20.2% margin increase.

So where did Bush find 42,000 new votes in Ocean County?
Ocean County used TOUCH-SCREENS.

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED IN MONMOUTH COUNTY?
In 2000, Kerry won by 11,000 votes: 130,000-119,000
In 2004, Bush won by 30,000 votes: 162,000-132,000, a 14.7% margin increase.

So where did Bush find 43,000 new votes in Monmouth County?
Monmouth County used LEVERS.

New Jersey  
(in thousands of votes)	
			2000			      2004			         Chg-2000  Chg Margin
County......Prct 	GORE	BUSH	GORE	BUSH	KERRY	BUSH	KERRY	BUSH	KERRY	BUSH	BUSH
Recorded....6126	1789	1284	56.5%	40.5%	1911	1670	53.1%	46.4%	122	386	8.3%
DATABASE....6126	1729	1248	56.3%	40.6%	1799	1587	52.8%	46.6%	70	340	9.5%
Diff........0     	60	36	60.6%	36.8%	112	83	57.4%	42.4%			
												
DATABASE COUNTIES BY VOTING METHOD
DRE........	4487	1234	941	55.0%	42.0%	1282	1189	51.6%	47.9%			
LEVER......	1558	478	285	60.8%	36.2%	500	369	57.2%	42.3%			
OPTICAL.........81	16	22	40.8%	54.7%	18	29	37.5%	61.5%			

* Big Bush net increase from 2000
												
DRE												
Atlantic    	157	50	34	58.3%	39.2%	52	46	52.8%	46.7%	2	13	13.0%
Bergen*    	554	191	144	55.5%	41.9%	193	178	51.7%	47.8%	2	34	9.7%
Burlington    	349	95	68	56.6%	40.6%	104	90	53.3%	46.2%	9	22	8.8%
Gloucester    	218	61	42	57.3%	39.7%	66	60	52.4%	47.1%	6	18	12.3%
Hudson    	425	113	43	70.6%	26.7%	114	56	66.8%	32.7%	0	13	9.7%

Hunterdon  	107	21	32	38.1%	57.5%	26	39	39.2%	60.1%	4	7	1.6%
Mercer    	289	78	44	62.1%	34.6%	86	53	61.2%	38.2%	7	10	4.5%
Middlesex*    	576	151	91	60.1%	36.5%	156	119	56.3%	43.1%	5	28	10.4%
Morris    	375	88	111	42.8%	54.1%	90	127	41.4%	58.0%	3	16	5.4%
Ocean*    	292	99	102	47.6%	48.9%	93	144	38.9%	60.4%	-7	42	20.2%

Passaic    	279	86	58	58.3%	39.3%	92	74	55.3%	44.2%	6	16	8.0%
Salem    	73	17	15	51.8%	45.5%	14	16	46.3%	53.1%	-4	1	13.0%
Somerset    	256	56	59	46.9%	49.9%	62	68	47.4%	52.0%	6	8	1.6%
Sussex    	100	21	33	37.4%	58.4%	22	42	34.4%	64.9%	1	9	9.6%
Union    	437	107	65	60.7%	36.7%	113	78	58.9%	40.6%	5	13	5.7%
												
LEVER												
Camden    	326	120	59	64.7%	31.8%	130	77	62.5%	37.0%	10	18	7.4%
Cape May    	124	22	23	47.2%	50.1%	20	26	42.5%	57.0%	-2	3	11.6%
Cumberland    	93	26	18	58.1%	39.8%	26	23	53.1%	46.6%	0	5	11.8%
Essex    	587	179	66	71.6%	26.2%	192	81	70.1%	29.5%	13	15	4.8%
Monmouth*    	428	130	119	50.6%	46.0%	132	162	44.6%	54.7%	1	43	14.7%

OPTICAL												
Warren    	81	16	22	40.8%	54.7%	18	29	37.5%	61.5%	1	7	10.2%
											

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

...it helps to understand that NJ isn't quite as Democratic as it appears from
looking at Presidential and US Senate races since 1976.  The Congressional
delegation has been gerrymandered into a near-permanent 7-6 split in favor of
Dems; the governorship has flip-flopped between D's and R's pretty
consistantly, usually in 8-year (two term) cycles.  The legislature tends to
flip on a somewhat faster schedule.

As for what happened in Ocean and Monmouth Counties, it helps to remember that
until very recently, both were GOP bastions (and at the local level, still are
for the most part).  One also has to appreciate the proximity of these counties
to NYC, and the number of residents who were related to, or knew someone, who
died (or just worked) at the WTC; and given this emotional bond, excercised a
disproportionate role in influencing their (presidental) vote.  Finally, Ocean
and Monmouth are among the fastest growing counties in terms of demographics,
and much of this growth is being fueled by retirees wealthy enough to afford
the buy-in real estate prices of over-55 communities; and white flight from the
inner cities of Hudson and Bergen Counties, neither of which are particularly
noted for voting Democratic.

As a life-long Garden Stater (albeit from the southern, below the Mason-Dixon
line, part), the results are not at all surprising; if anything, i was
surprised Kerry did as well as he did statewide, given the weakness of Kerry's
brain-dead campaign and the Dem's US Senate candidate (Menendez), and (again)
the closeness to 9/11.

Your analysis is based on gut-feel.

You had better review the national and state exit poll data, before they WERE FORCED TO MATCH A CORRUPTED VOTE COUNT.

THE SIMPLE FACTS
Gore won the popular vote in 2000.
Kerry won the vast majority of new voters.
Kerry won the vast majority of undecided voters.
Kerry won the vast majority of Nader voters.
More Bush voters defected to Kerry than Gore voters to Bush.

The NJ exit Poll
(pristine WPE, before it was contaminated by matching to the recorded vote)
Kerry 57.80%
Bush 41.40%
Other 0.80%

I suggest you spend a few hours reading this:
http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthI...

Got Excel? Then run some NJ scenarios yourself.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionCal...

Plausible assumptions in the Election Calculator produced this TRUE vote share:
Kerry 58.7%
Bush 40.3%
Other 1.0%

Kerry did 1% better than the exit poll.

Check the data:
1) 2000 election uncounted votes
2) 2000 election voter mortality

Check the assumptions:
1) 2000 voter turnout in 2004
2) Kerry, Bush vote shares (based on the 12:22am National Exit Poll)
The shares were adjusted slightly upward for Kerry since the NJ Democratic share is higher than the National share.

Let me know why you disagree with the data and/or the assumptions.
You can't disagree with the math; it's simple arithmetic.
You can only question the assumptions.
Indicate adjustments you would like to make to the assumptions.

Check the calculations:
View the sensitivity analysis tables.
You can immediately eyeball alternative scenarios.
It will save you the effort of having to play what-if.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Fantastic stuff....

Seemslikeadreanm. Buried under a big blue crayon, from her head to her feet, from the disease of conceit.