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CA 2004: Election Calculator Model; County Votes/Machine type
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Original Post: CA 2004: Election Calculator Model; County Votes/Machine type
TruthIsAll Moderator Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
1399 posts
Mon Aug-06-07 05:34 AM
Original Post
 
 
Edited by TruthIsAll on Tue Aug-21-07 07:35 AM

California Secretary of State Bowen decertified Touch Screens (DRE) and mandated
a complete audit for counties with Optical Scanners. This analysis shows that
the largest vote discrepancies were in DRE counties. 

Bush's recorded CA vote share increased by 2.9% over 2000 while the Kerry share
increased by 0.9% over Gore. Assuming no voter defection, this implies that Bush
won 76% of returning Nader voters. But this is clearly impossible since the
National Exit Poll reported that 71% of Nader voters switched to Kerry, 21% to
Bush and 8% to Other. 


ELECTION CALCULATOR

2004 Recorded 		
Kerry	Bush	Other	
6.75	5.51	0.14	
54.4%	44.5%	1.1%	

Exit Poll (WPE)	
59.9%	38.9%	1.2%

Uncounted 3.0%			
75%	23%	2%
0.29	0.09	0.01

Switched	
6.1%	-9.9%	23.5%
0.46	-0.50	0.04

												
		2000 Recorded				2004 Calculated 			
Voted	Rec	Unct	Cast	Deaths	Alive		Turnout	Voted	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV							 DNV 	2.43	19.0%	60%	38%	2%
Gore	5.86	0.42	6.28	0.31	5.97		95%	5.68	44.4%	93%	6%	1%
Bush	4.57	0.11	4.68	0.23	4.45		95%	4.23	33.1%	11%	89%	0%
 Nader	0.46	0.03	0.49	0.02	0.46		95%	0.44	3.4%	66%	15%	19%
												
Total	10.89	0.57	11.46	0.56	10.89		10.34	12.78	100%	58.65%	39.87%	1.48%
									12.78 	7.49 	5.09 	0.19 
					
Sensitivity Analysis 1: 
Kerry share of Gore and New voters
					
		Kerry  Vote Share			
					
Kerry		
share of	New voters (DNV in 2000)			
Gore	56.0%	58.0%	60.0%	62.0%	64.0%

97.0%	59.7%	60.0%	60.4%	60.8%	61.2%
95.0%	58.8%	59.2%	59.5%	59.9%	60.3%
93.0%	57.9%	58.3%	58.6%	59.0%	59.4%
91.0%	57.0%	57.4%	57.8%	58.1%	58.5%
89.0%	56.1%	56.5%	56.9%	57.3%	57.6%
					
		 Kerry Margin			
97.0%	2.66 	2.76 	2.85 	2.95 	3.05 
95.0%	2.43 	2.53 	2.63 	2.72 	2.82 
93.0%	2.20 	2.30 	2.40 	2.50 	2.59 
91.0%	1.98 	2.07 	2.17 	2.27 	2.37 
89.0%	1.75 	1.85 	1.94 	2.04 	2.14 
				

Sensitivity Analysis 2: 
Gore Turnout, Uncounted
					
					
		Kerry Vote Share			
Gore 		
share of	Gore Voter Turnout			
Unctd	93.0%	94.0%	95.0%	96.0%	97.0%

85.0%	58.7%	58.8%	59.0%	59.1%	59.3%
80.0%	58.5%	58.7%	58.8%	59.0%	59.1%
75.0%	58.3%	58.5%	58.6%	58.8%	59.0%
70.0%	58.2%	58.3%	58.5%	58.6%	58.8%
65.0%	58.0%	58.2%	58.3%	58.5%	58.6%
					
		 Kerry Margin			
85.0%	2.41 	2.45 	2.49 	2.53 	2.57 
80.0%	2.36 	2.40 	2.44 	2.48 	2.52 
75.0%	2.32 	2.36 	2.40 	2.44 	2.48 
70.0%	2.27 	2.31 	2.35 	2.39 	2.43 
65.0%	2.23 	2.27 	2.31 	2.35 	2.39 



* indicates fraud likely
California	2000				2004			     
County	        GORE	BUSH	NADER		KERRY	BUSH		Knet	Kadj	Diff
TOTAL    	54.3%	41.9%	3.8%		55.2%	44.8%		-2.0%	57.2%	2.0%

AVERAGE										
DRE	       50.9%	45.8%	3.4%		50.7%	49.3%		-3.8%	53.4%	2.8%
Optiscan      56.2%	39.7%	4.0%		57.5%	42.5%		-1.5%	59.4%	1.9%
Punch card    46.6%	49.3%	4.1%		47.8%	52.2%		-1.6%	49.7%	1.9%
										
DRE										
Alameda    	70.2%	24.1%	5.7%		75.2%	24.8%		4.3%	74.6%	-0.6%
Merced*    	45.7%	52.0%	2.3%		42.8%	57.2%		-8.1%	47.4%	4.7%
Napa    	55.2%	40.0%	4.8%		60.4%	39.6%		5.6%	58.9%	-1.5%
Orange*    	40.9%	56.3%	2.8%		39.7%	60.3%		-5.0%	43.0%	3.3%
Plumas    	33.7%	61.9%	4.4%		37.0%	63.0%		2.2%	37.1%	0.1%

Riverside*    	45.6%	51.8%	2.6%		41.6%	58.4%		-10.4%	47.6%	5.9%
SanBernard*	48.0%	49.3%	2.6%		43.7%	56.3%		-11.3%	50.1%	6.4%
SantaClara    	61.8%	34.7%	3.5%		64.9%	35.1%		2.6%	64.5%	-0.4%
Shasta    	30.9%	65.9%	3.2%		31.6%	68.4%		-1.8%	33.4%	1.7%
Tehama    	31.9%	64.6%	3.4%		32.7%	67.3%		-1.9%	34.6%	1.9%
										
										
OPTICAL SCANNERS										
Amador    	38.8%	57.4%	3.8%		37.2%	62.8%		-7.0%	41.7%	4.5%
Butte    	38.3%	54.7%	6.9%		45.1%	54.9%		6.6%	43.7%	-1.4%
Colusa    	31.8%	65.5%	2.8%		32.1%	67.9%		-2.2%	33.9%	1.8%
ContraCost    	59.6%	37.0%	3.4%		62.9%	37.1%		3.2%	62.3%	-0.7%
Fresno*    	43.7%	53.4%	3.0%		41.7%	58.3%		-6.9%	45.9%	4.3%

Humboldt    	45.7%	40.9%	13.3%		59.8%	40.2%		14.8%	56.0%	-3.8%
Kern*    	36.6%	61.5%	1.9%		32.5%	67.5%		-10.0%	38.0%	5.5%
Kings*    	40.0%	58.0%	2.0%		34.3%	65.7%		-13.5%	41.6%	7.3%
Lake    	52.0%	41.9%	6.1%		54.2%	45.8%		-1.7%	56.7%	2.5%
Lassen    	28.8%	67.9%	3.2%		28.0%	72.0%		-4.9%	31.3%	3.3%

LosAngeles*   64.2% 32.6% 3.1%	       63.6%	36.4%		-4.3%	66.6%	3.0%
Madera    	35.3%	61.4%	3.3%		35.1%	64.9%		-3.7%	37.9%	2.7%
Marin    	64.8%	28.5%	6.7%		73.9%	26.1%		11.5%	69.9%	-3.9%
Mariposa    	35.6%	59.6%	4.7%		38.4%	61.6%		0.8%	39.3%	0.9%
Mendocino    	49.2%	36.1%	14.7%		65.1%	34.9%		17.1%	60.5%	-4.6%

Modoc    	23.5%	73.5%	3.0%		26.0%	74.0%		2.0%	25.8%	-0.2%
Mono    	41.4%	53.3%	5.3%		50.0%	50.0%		11.9%	45.5%	-4.5%
Monterey    	58.3%	37.4%	4.3%		60.7%	39.3%		0.4%	61.6%	1.0%
Nevada    	37.7%	55.3%	7.0%		45.2%	54.8%		8.1%	43.1%	-2.2%
Placer    	36.7%	59.5%	3.8%		36.9%	63.1%		-3.4%	39.6%	2.7%

Sacramento    	49.9%	45.9%	4.1%		50.6%	49.4%		-2.8%	53.1%	2.5%
SanDiego*    	46.6%	49.8%	3.6%		47.3%	52.7%		-2.1%	49.4%	2.0%
SanFrancis    	76.1%	15.8%	8.2%		84.4%	15.6%		8.4%	82.4%	-2.0%
SanJoaquin*	48.0%	49.5%	2.5%		46.2%	53.8%		-6.2%	49.9%	3.8%
SanLuisObi    	41.4%	52.6%	6.0%		46.7%	53.3%		4.6%	46.0%	-0.7%

SanMateo    	65.0%	31.0%	4.0%		70.3%	29.7%		6.6%	68.1%	-2.2%
SantaBarba    	47.6%	46.8%	5.6%		55.6%	44.4%		10.3%	51.9%	-3.7%
SantaCruz    	62.5%	27.3%	10.2%		74.6%	25.4%		13.9%	70.4%	-4.2%
Siskiyou    	32.6%	62.9%	4.5%		38.6%	61.4%		7.6%	36.0%	-2.6%
Solano	      57.7%	39.4%	3.0%		58.4%	41.6%		-1.6%	60.0%	1.6%

Sonoma    	60.1%	32.6%	7.3%		68.3%	31.7%		9.2%	65.7%	-2.6%
Stanislaus*	45.3%	52.1%	2.6%		41.2%	58.8%		-10.8%	47.3%	6.1%
Sutter    	32.0%	65.7%	2.2%		32.3%	67.7%		-1.7%	33.7%	1.5%
Trinity    	34.1%	58.9%	7.0%		44.1%	55.9%		13.0%	39.4%	-4.6%
Tulare*    	37.2%	60.7%	2.1%		33.1%	66.9%		-10.3%	38.8%	5.7%
Tuolumne    	39.7%	56.3%	3.9%		39.1%	60.9%		-5.3%	42.8%	3.7%
										
PUNCH CARDS										
Alpine    	45.6%	49.9%	4.5%		54.5%	45.5%		13.4%	49.1%	-5.5%
Calaveras    	38.5%	56.9%	4.6%		38.3%	61.7%		-4.9%	42.0%	3.7%
DelNorte    	38.5%	55.6%	5.9%		42.2%	57.8%		1.4%	43.1%	0.9%
ElDorado    	37.0%	58.8%	4.1%		38.4%	61.6%		-1.5%	40.2%	1.9%
Glenn    	29.2%	67.7%	3.1%		32.2%	67.8%		2.9%	31.6%	-0.6%

Imperial    	55.0%	42.9%	2.1%		54.5%	45.5%		-3.1%	56.6%	2.1%
Inyo    	34.3%	61.4%	4.3%		39.9%	60.1%		6.7%	37.7%	-2.2%
SanBenito    	54.6%	42.3%	3.1%		54.1%	45.9%		-4.1%	57.0%	2.9%
Sierra    	30.1%	65.2%	4.8%		31.1%	68.9%		-2.6%	33.7%	2.6%
Ventura    	48.3%	48.0%	3.7%		48.7%	51.3%		-2.9%	51.1%	2.4%
Yolo    	55.4%	37.9%	6.7%		60.8%	39.2%		4.2%	60.5%	-0.3%
Yuba*    	35.1%	61.8%	3.1%		31.9%	68.1%		-9.5%	37.5%	5.6%
										
										

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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