In 2004 Bush officially won by 286-251 electoral votes. But who really believes
it?

Did Kerry actually win around 367 Electoral votes? 
This analysis shows why he may have.

Assumptions:
1- 110.8m Census 2000 votes cast (105.4m recorded)
2- 125.7m Census 2004 votes cast (122.3m recorded)
3- Uncounted votes: Gore 70% 
4- 2000 voter mortality prior to 2004: 5% Gore; 4.8% Bush
5- 2000 voter turnout in 2004: 95% 
6- Kerry won 71% of Nader voters (12:22am NEP)
7- Kerry won 57% of DNV2k (did not vote in 2000)
8- Kerry won 10% of Bush 2000 voters; Bush won 8% of Gore voters
9- Mortality and uncounted vote rates were uniform in all states


Key Results
-----------
Popular vote:
Kerry  Bush
67.3m 57.5m
53.5% 45.7%

Electoral votes:
367 171

Kerry won the following 11 states which were recorded for Bush:
AZ, AR, CO, FL, IA, MO, NV, NM, OH, TN, WV

The sensitivity analysis tables display Kerry's popular and electoral vote over
a range of the assumptions: Gore uncounted votes; Kerry's share of Nader and New
voters. 


STATE VOTE ADJUSTMENTS
(in thousands)


	Recorded			Uncounted		Mortality		Turnout	
	48.7%	48.2%	3.1%		70%	25%		5.0%	4.8%		95%	95%
	Gore 	Bush	Nader		Gore 	Bush		Gore 	Bush		Gore	Bush
State	51,004	50,459	3,275		3,745	1,338		2,737	2,486		49,411	46,845
												
AL	692	941	25		59	21		38	48		678	868
AK	79	167	33		10	4		4	9		80	154
AZ	685	781	56		54	19		37	40		667	722
AR	422	472	23		33	12		23	24		410	437
CA	5,861	4,567	459		389	139		313	235		5,641	4,247
												
CO	738	883	101		62	22		40	45		722	817
CT	816	561	68		52	18		43	29		783	523
DE	180	137	9		12	4		10	7		173	127
DC	171	18	11		7	3		9	1		161	19
FL	2,912	2,912	115		212	76		156	149		2,820	2,697
												
GA	1,116	1,419	11		91	33		60	73		1,089	1,310
HI	205	137	23		13	5		11	7		197	128
ID	138	336	8		17	6		8	17		140	309
IL	2,589	2,019	120		169	60		138	104		2,489	1,877
IN	901	1,245	17		77	28		49	64		883	1,149
												
IA	638	634	37		47	17		34	33		618	587
KS	399	622	43		38	14		22	32		394	574
KY	638	872	27		55	20		35	45		625	805
LA	792	927	36		63	22		43	47		771	857
ME	319	286	41		23	8		17	15		309	266
												
MD	1,144	813	58		72	26		61	42		1,097	757
MA	1,616	878	185		96	34		86	46		1,545	823
MI	2,170	1,953	84		150	54		116	100		2,094	1,811
MN	1,168	1,109	159		87	31		63	57		1,133	1,029
MS	404	572	10		35	13		22	29		396	528
												
MO	1,111	1,189	49		84	30		60	61		1,078	1,100
MT	137	240	30		15	5		8	12		137	221
NE	231	433	28		25	9		13	22		231	399
NV	279	301	20		21	8		15	15		271	279
NH	266	273	25		20	7		14	14		258	253
												
NJ	1,788	1,284	101		113	41		95	66		1,716	1,195
NM	287	286	22		21	8		15	15		278	265
NY	4,112	2,405	278		243	87		218	125		3,930	2,249
NC	1,257	1,631	9		104	37		68	83		1,228	1,505
ND	95	174	17		10	4		5	9		95	160
												
OH	2,186	2,351	144		167	60		118	121		2,124	2,176
OK	474	744	9		44	16		26	38		467	686
OR	720	713	17		52	19		39	37		697	660
PA	2,485	2,281	120		175	62		133	117		2,400	2,115
RI	249	130	27		15	5		13	7		238	122
												
SC	566	786	24		49	18		31	40		555	725
SD	118	190	3		11	4		6	10		117	175
TN	981	1,061	24		74	26		53	54		952	981
TX	2,433	3,799	150		228	82		133	194		2,402	3,502
UT	203	515	45		27	10		12	26		208	474
												
VT	149	119	23		10	4		8	6		144	111
VA	1,217	1,437	65		97	35		66	74		1,186	1,328
WA	1,247	1,108	108		88	31		67	57		1,205	1,028
WV	295	336	14		23	8		16	17		287	311
WI	1,242	1,237	105		92	33		67	63		1,204	1,146
WY	60	147	3		8	3		3	7		61	135

	Nader		Defection	New Voters			True Vote 		ElecVote
	71%	21%	8%	10%	57.0%	41.0%						
	Kerry	Bush	Gore	Bush	Kerry	Bush		Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry
State	2,301	681	3,953	4,684	14,883	10,705		67,327	57,499	53.54%	45.73%	367
												
AL	18	5	54	87	157	197		885	1,038	45.7%	53.6%	
AK	23	7	6	15	20	33		133	185	41.5%	57.7%	
AZ	40	12	53	72	321	297		1,047	1,012	50.4%	48.7%	10
AR	16	5	33	44	107	98		544	529	50.4%	49.0%	6
CA	326	96	451	425	1,628	712		7,568	5,082	59.4%	39.9%	55
												
CO	72	21	58	82	276	261		1,093	1,075	50.0%	49.2%	9
CT	48	14	63	52	187	57		1,008	604	62.1%	37.2%	7
DE	6	2	14	13	52	22		230	153	59.7%	39.6%	3
DC	8	2	6	1	245	10		408	36	91.5%	8.2%	3
FL	82	24	226	270	1,201	931		4,146	3,608	53.1%	46.2%	27
												
GA	8	2	87	131	440	515		1,581	1,784	46.6%	52.6%	
HI	16	5	16	13	73	19		283	155	64.2%	35.1%	4
ID	6	2	11	31	45	109		210	400	34.2%	65.1%	
IL	85	25	199	188	626	287		3,189	2,200	58.8%	40.6%	21
IN	12	4	71	115	206	268		1,145	1,376	45.1%	54.3%	
			0	0								
IA	26	8	49	59	170	128		824	713	53.2%	46.1%	7
KS	31	9	32	57	85	120		536	677	43.9%	55.5%	
KY	19	6	50	80	168	211		843	991	45.7%	53.7%	
LA	26	8	62	86	160	160		981	1,000	49.2%	50.2%	
ME	29	9	25	27	92	52		431	324	56.7%	42.6%	4
												
MD	41	12	88	76	388	138		1,514	919	61.8%	37.5%	10
MA	131	39	124	82	396	31		2,031	935	68.0%	31.3%	12
MI	60	18	168	181	585	372		2,753	2,188	55.4%	44.0%	17
MN	113	33	91	103	350	221		1,608	1,271	55.4%	43.8%	9
MS	7	2	32	53	98	131		523	640	44.7%	54.7%	
												
MO	35	10	86	110	303	262		1,440	1,349	51.3%	48.1%	11
MT	21	6	11	22	30	44		199	261	43.0%	56.3%	
NE	20	6	18	40	50	88		322	471	40.3%	59.0%	
NV	14	4	22	28	147	126		439	402	51.7%	47.4%	5
NH	18	5	21	25	88	67		369	321	53.1%	46.2%	4
												
NJ	72	21	137	120	500	181		2,270	1,416	61.2%	38.2%	15
NM	16	5	22	27	119	88		417	354	53.6%	45.5%	5
NY	197	58	314	225	959	153		4,997	2,550	65.8%	33.6%	31
NC	6	2	98	151	377	456		1,663	1,911	46.2%	53.1%	
ND	12	4	8	16	18	30		134	185	41.6%	57.7%	
												
OH	102	30	170	218	705	603		2,979	2,761	51.5%	47.7%	20
OK	6	2	37	69	131	202		636	858	42.3%	57.0%	
OR	12	4	56	66	277	215		996	869	53.0%	46.2%	7
PA	85	25	192	211	762	498		3,267	2,619	55.1%	44.2%	21
RI	19	6	19	12	58	3		308	137	68.7%	30.7%	4
												
SC	17	5	44	73	152	195		752	897	45.3%	54.0%	
SD	2	1	9	18	39	62		166	230	41.7%	57.6%	
TN	17	5	76	98	280	253		1,271	1,217	50.8%	48.6%	11
TX	107	32	192	350	616	908		3,282	4,283	43.1%	56.2%	
UT	32	9	17	47	68	154		338	606	35.5%	63.7%	
												
VT	16	5	12	11	29	12		189	128	59.2%	40.1%	3
VA	46	14	95	133	342	344		1,612	1,648	49.1%	50.2%	
WA	77	23	96	103	368	215		1,656	1,260	56.4%	42.9%	11
WV	10	3	23	31	82	79		387	384	49.9%	49.5%	5
WI	75	22	96	115	351	257		1,648	1,407	53.6%	45.7%	10
WY	2	1	5	14	14	35		86	162	34.4%	64.9%	

Sensitivity Analysis I
Given: Kerry won 57% share of New Voters

Worst case scenario:
Gore won 65% of uncounted votes in 2000
Kerry won 50% of Nader voters
Result:
Kerry wins 52.8% of the popular vote and 337 electoral votes

Best case scenario:
Gore won 80% of uncounted votes in 2000
Kerry won 80% of Nader voters
Result:
Kerry wins 54.1% of the popular vote and 389 electoral votes

Gore		Kerry Vote		
Uncounted	Kerry % Nader		
Share	50%	60%	71%	80%

80%	53.3%	53.6%	53.9%	54.1%
75%	53.2%	53.4%	53.7%	53.9%
70%	53.0%	53.3%	53.5%	53.8%
65%	52.8%	53.1%	53.4%	53.6%
				
		Kerry EV		
80%	358	367	367	389
75%	353	358	367	367
70%	343	353	367	367
65%	337	353	362	367


Sensitivity Analysis II
Given: Kerry won 71% of Nader Voters

Worst case scenario:
Gore won 65% of uncounted votes in 2000
Kerry won 52% of new voters
Result:
Kerry wins 52.3% of the popular vote and 326 electoral votes

Best case scenario:
Gore won 80% of uncounted votes in 2000
Kerry won 61% of New voters
Result:
Kerry wins 54.7% of the popular vote and 389 electoral votes
					
Gore		Kerry Vote		
Uncounted	Kerry % New		
Share	52%	54%	57%	59%	61%

80%	52.8%	53.2%	53.9%	54.3%	54.7%
75%	52.7%	53.1%	53.7%	54.1%	54.5%
70%	52.5%	52.9%	53.5%	54.0%	54.4%
65%	52.3%	52.8%	53.4%	53.8%	54.2%

		Kerry EV			
80%	343	367	367	389	389
75%	343	353	367	389	389
70%	337	353	367	367	389
65%	326	337	362	367	367

Sensitivity Analysis III

Worst case scenario:
Gore voter defection: 10%
Bush Voter defection:  8%
Result:
Kerry wins 52.0% of the popular vote and 290 electoral votes

Best case scenario:
Gore voter defection: 6%
Bush Voter defection: 12%
Result:
Kerry wins 55.1% of the popular vote and 389 electoral votes
					
Defection
Bush  Gore 
      10%	9%	8%	7%	6%
          Kerry Vote Share
12%	53.5%	53.9%	54.3%	54.7%	55.1%
11%	53.1%	53.5%	53.9%	54.3%	54.7%
10%	52.8%	53.1%	53.5%	53.9%	54.3%
9%	52.4%	52.8%	53.2%	53.6%	54.0%
8%	52.0%	52.4%	52.8%	53.2%	53.6%

         Kerry Electoral Vote
12%	367	389	389	389	389
11%	353	367	389	389	389
10%	326	353	367	389	389
9%	315	326	353	367	367
8%	290	315	326	353	367

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Thanks for pursuing this. According to Fritikas and Wasserstein I think (Google isn't helpful here) Kerry won handily in Ohio, even after the vote flipping, and that's all he needed.