http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#NewYork

Naysayers cherry-picked the final NY pre-election poll as an example of why the
pre-election polls did not match the exits. They claimed that the NY
pre-election poll was correct and that the exit poll was off. They maintained
that since NY Lever machines have a low spoilage rate of 1%, fraud is
impossible. But can they provide evidence that ALL the votes were counted in
ALL the precincts? Can they vouch for the chain of custody? Have they
considered historic evidence indicating that Lever machine counts have been
compromised?

Dan Rather's report on voting machines  showed that in the 2000 election,
poor-quality paper was used for punch cards in heavily Democratic Palm Beach
county - and who knows where else.

http://www.hd.net/drr227.html

The paper was a major factor in the rejection of thousands of ballots. Prior to
the Rather report, paper was never considered as the culprit; the public assumed
hanging chads were due to the punch card machines themselves. Was a similar
low-tech hacking method applied to New York levers?


This analysis of publicly available 2000-2004 data indicates that Kerry did
much better in NY than his recorded vote - and matched the exit poll. 


New York                 Kerry Bush Nader  
Recorded vote            58.5  40.2 1.3% 
Final pre-election poll  59.0  40.0 1.0% 

E-M NY Exit Poll
12:22am Composite        62.8  35.4 1.8% 
WPE-adjusted             64.1  34.4 1.5% 

Election Calculator
 Scenario I              62.5  36.4 1.1%
 Scenario II             64.1  33.8 1.1%


Is it just a coincidence that the state's FOUR BIGGEST COUNTIES, where Kerry
had his HIGHEST vote shares, had the HIGHEST voting machine incident rates? 

Is it just a coincidence that Kerry won 66% of the FINAL 500,000 recorded votes
but only 58% of the FIRST 6.8 million? 

Is it just a coincidence that Gore won 74% of the FINAL 500,000 recorded votes
but only 60% of the FIRST 6.3 million? 

There are four fundamental flaws in the naysayer argument. 

1) They failed to consider the NY 2000 recorded vote: Gore 60.5/Bush 35.4/Nader
4.1. They assume that the 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free. But to match the
recorded vote, Bush needed to win 100% of returning Nader 2000 voters and a net
defection of Gore voters - clearly an impossible scenario.

According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Kerry won Nader 2000 voters by
71-21%; 10% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters
defected. Adjusting the weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote and assuming
the NEP vote shares, Kerry won by 60.8-38.1%. This is well within the 3.2% NY
exit poll margin of error (30% cluster effect) for 1452 respondents. 

2) They failed to consider that Kerry’s NY vote share was approximately 10%
higher than his national share. The Election Calculator model adjusted the NEP
Voted 2000 vote shares: Kerry won 93% of Gore voters, 10% of Bush voters and
60% of new voters (DNV).  Assuming a 2% uncounted vote rate, Kerry’s margin was
62.5-36.4%, again quite close to the 12:22am exit poll. A sensitivity analysis
shows that for Kerry winning 91-95% of returning Gore voters and 56-64% of new
voters, his NY vote share ranged from 59.8% to 65.2%.  

3) They assumed zero fraud in declaring the recorded vote as the true vote. An
analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes also concluded that
Kerry won NY by 63-36%. The assumptions were that 2% of total votes cast were
uncounted (75% to Kerry) and that 7% of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. 

The uncounted vote assumption is lower than the 2.74% national average (NY uses
lever voting machines). The switched vote assumption reflects the national
result based on the 12:22am National Exit Poll adjusted for feasible weights.
Who is going to question the switching of votes, especially since Kerry won the
state by 18%? But we have just shown that the true margin was close to 27%.

4) They ignored the theoretical margin of error. It’s well-known that exit
polls are more accurate than pre-election polls. The 4% discrepancy between
Kerry's NY pre-election (59%) and exit poll (63%) is not that unusual. The MoE
is 4% for a typical 600-sample pre-election state poll, meaning there is a 95%
probability that Kerry's True vote was in the 55-63% range. The NY 3.17% exit
poll MoE (30% cluster effect for 1452 respondents) means there was a 95% chance
that Kerry's True vote was in the 60-66% range. 

A Kerry NY vote share in the 60-63% range would have been WITHIN THE MARGIN OF
ERROR FOR BOTH PRE-ELECTION AND EXIT POLLS. 

On the other side, the weighted average of 51 state pre-election polls
(adjusted for undecided voters) matched the National Exit Poll to within 1%,
illustrating the Law of Large Numbers.

NY 2004 Election Calculator 

2000 Recorded vote		
Gore	Bush	Nader	Total
4.11	2.41	0.28	6.80
60.5%	35.4%	4.1%	

Uncounted vote			
0.10	0.03	0.01	0.14
75%	20%	5%	2.00%

2004 Recorded vote		
Kerry	Bush	Nader	Total
4.31	2.96	0.10	7.38
58.5%	40.2%	1.4%	

Uncounted	vote		
0.11	0.03	0.00	0.15
75%	23%	2%	2.00%


Scenario I 

Assumptions:
2% of total votes cast were uncounted in 2000 and 2004.
75% of the uncounted votes were Democratic.
95% Turnout of Bush and Gore 2000 voters in 2004.

Uncounted Votes 			
	Pct	 Cast	Unctd
2004	2.00%	7.53	0.15
2000	2.00%	6.93	0.14
			
2004 Share	2000 Share
Kerry	75%	Gore	75%
Bush	23%	Bush	20%
Nader	2%	Nader	5%
			
2000 Voter Mortality: 1.22%
Gore share:60%		

Estimated Kerry vote shares
	NY  12:22am Final
Kerry	Est.	NEP	NEP
DNV	60%	57%	54%
Gore	93%	91%	90%
Bush	10%	10%	9%
Nader	71%	71%	71%

Key results:
7.53m total votes were cast in 2004.
6.94m total votes were cast in 2000.

110,000 Kerry votes were uncounted.
30,000 Bush votes were uncounted.
Kerry lost 80,000 (net) uncounted votes

260,000 Kerry votes were switched to Bush-a 520,000 reduction in margin.
Kerry’s True Vote margin was 600,000 greater than the recorded margin.
		
												
	2000 Recorded					2004 Calculated 						
Voted	Act	Unct	Cast	Deaths	Alive	Vote2k	Turnout	Voted	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
						DNV	 -   	1.26	16.8%	60%	38%	2%
Gore	4.11	0.10	4.22	0.17	4.05	Gore	95%	3.81	50.7%	93%	6%	1%
Bush	2.41	0.03	2.43	0.12	2.31	Bush	95%	2.29	29.2%	10%	90%	0%
Nader	0.28	0.01	0.28	0.01	0.27	Nader	95%	0.26	3.4%	71%	21%	8%
												
Total	6.80	0.14	6.93	0.34	6.60	Total	6.27	7.53	100%	62.51% 36.38% 1.11%
									7.53 	4.70 	2.74 	0.08 

	Sensitivity Analysis			
 Gore Voter turnout and Uncounted Votes  		

Bush 2000 voter turnout:95.0%		

Gore share					
of Unctd	Gore Voter Turnout			
Votes	91.0%	93.0%	95.0%	97.0%	99.0%

      Kerry National Vote			

95.0%	62.1%	62.4%	62.8%	63.2%	63.5%
85.0%	61.9%	62.3%	62.7%	63.0%	63.4%
75.0%	61.8%	62.1%	62.5%	62.9%	63.2%
65.0%	61.6%	62.0%	62.4%	62.7%	63.1%
55.0%	61.5%	61.9%	62.2%	62.6%	62.9%

	Kerry Margin (millions)			
					
95.0%	1.90 	1.96 	2.01 	2.06 	2.12 
85.0%	1.88 	1.93 	1.99 	2.04 	2.10 
75.0%	1.86 	1.91 	1.97 	2.02 	2.07 
65.0%	1.84 	1.89 	1.94 	2.00 	2.05 
55.0%	1.82 	1.87 	1.92 	1.98 	2.03 
					

	Sensitivity Analysis			
 Kerry share of Gore and New Voters

Kerry share of Bush 2000 voters:10.0%	

Kerry Share of					
Gore 	New voters (DNV in 2000)			
Voters 56.0% 58.0% 60.0% 62.0% 64.0%

	Kerry National Vote			

97.0%	63.9%	64.2%	64.5%	64.9%	65.2%
95.0%	62.9%	63.2%	63.5%	63.9%	64.2%
93.0%	61.8%	62.2%	62.5%	62.8%	63.2%
91.0%	60.8%	61.2%	61.5%	61.8%	62.2%
89.0%	59.8%	60.1%	60.5%	60.8%	61.2%
					
	Kerry Margin (millions)			

97.0%	2.17 	2.22 	2.27 	2.32 	2.37 
95.0%	2.02 	2.07 	2.12 	2.17 	2.22 
93.0%	1.87 	1.92 	1.97 	2.02 	2.07 
91.0%	1.71 	1.76 	1.81 	1.86 	1.92 
89.0%	1.56 	1.61 	1.66 	1.71 	1.76 
					
____________________________________________________________

Scenario II 

Assumptions
Uncounted Votes 			
	Pct	 Cast	Unctd
2004	5%	7.76	0.39
2000	5%	7.15	0.36
			
2004	Share	2000	Share
Kerry	80%	Gore	80%
Bush	18%	Bush	17%
Other	2%	Nader	3%
			
2000 Voter Mortality 			
Total Voters:1.22%		
Gore share:	60%		
			

		2004 Calculated 			
   Turnout	Voted	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV 	 -     1.28	16.5%	62%	36%	2%
Gore  96%	4.02	51.8%	93%	6%	1%
Bush  94%	2.20	28.3%	11%	89%	0%
Nader 96%	0.26	3.4%	75%	17%	8%
					
Total 6.48	7.76	100%	64.05%	34.83%	1.12%
		       	       4.97 	2.70 	0.09 


											
________________________________________________________________________

NY County Vote 2000-2004 Analysis

											
											
	Final Recorded vote										
		Total  Dem	Nader	Bush	       Dem     Nader  Bush		
	2004	7,377	4,314	99	2,963		58.48%	1.35%	40.17%		
	2000	6,762	4,112	244	2,405		60.82%	3.61%	35.57%		
	Change	614   201 	-144	557		4.9%	-59.1%	23.2%		
											
	Preliminary Recorded vote										
	2004	6,892	3,993	103	2,795		57.94%	1.50%	40.56%		
	2000	6,269	3,746	300	2,222		59.76%	4.79%	35.45%		
	Change	622	246	-1967	573		6.6%	-65.5%	25.8%		
											
											
	Change from Preliminary to Final 										
	2004	485	320	-3	167		66.1%	-0.75%	34.6%	
	2000	493	366	-56	183		74.2%	-11.4%	37.1%		
											

		 2000 	              Gore	       2004 		      Kerry 	  Bush Incr Margin
County	        Gore	Bush	Nader	Margin        Kerry Bush	Nader	Margin  

Albany    	59.7%	34.0%	6.3%	25.7%		60.2%	37.8%	1.9%	22.4%		3.3%	6922
Allegany    	34.7%	60.5%	4.8%	-25.8%		33.8%	64.5%	1.7%	-30.6%		4.8%	1031
Bronx    	86.0%	11.9%	2.1%	74.1%		82.7%	16.7%	0.6%	66.0%		8.0%	19734
Brooklyn    	79.9%	16.1%	4.0%	63.9%		74.3%	24.8%	0.8%	49.5%		14.4%	67235
Broome    	51.8%	42.5%	5.7%	9.3%		50.1%	47.9%	2.0%	2.2%		7.0%	5684

Catargus    	40.4%	54.6%	5.1%	-14.2%		39.2%	59.0%	1.8%	-19.8%		5.6%	1453
Cayuga    	49.3%	44.9%	5.8%	4.4%		49.9%	47.9%	2.2%	2.0%		2.4%	2266
Chataqua    	46.3%	49.1%	4.5%	-2.8%		45.1%	53.1%	1.9%	-8.0%		5.3%	3038
Chemung    	46.1%	49.8%	4.2%	-3.7%		43.4%	54.3%	2.4%	-10.9%		7.2%	3327
Chenang    	44.8%	49.7%	5.5%	-4.8%		43.0%	55.0%	2.0%	-12.0%		7.1%	1343

Clinton    	50.4%	43.9%	5.7%	6.4%		52.4%	45.5%	2.1%	6.9%		-0.4%	1565
Columbia    	46.9%	45.8%	7.3%	1.1%		54.4%	43.5%	2.1%	10.9%		-9.8%	-829
Cortland    	47.1%	47.1%	5.9%	0.0%		47.1%	51.0%	1.9%	-3.8%		3.8%	1498
Delaware    	41.5%	53.2%	5.2%	-11.7%		39.8%	57.7%	2.4%	-17.9%		6.2%	1628
Dutchess    	46.7%	47.1%	6.2%	-0.4%		46.5%	51.9%	1.6%	-5.3%		4.9%	9666

Erie    	56.8%	37.4%	5.9%	19.4%		56.2%	41.6%	2.2%	14.6%		4.8%	27705
Essex    	44.2%	49.0%	6.8%	-4.8%		45.7%	52.2%	2.2%	-6.5%		1.7%	912
Franklin    	50.1%	44.6%	5.3%	5.5%		51.4%	46.7%	1.9%	4.7%		0.8%	678
Fulton    	42.7%	53.1%	4.2%	-10.5%		41.3%	56.8%	1.9%	-15.6%		5.1%	644
Genesee    	39.8%	54.9%	5.2%	-15.1%		37.2%	61.2%	1.6%	-23.9%		8.9%	1393

Greene    	40.0%	53.8%	6.2%	-13.7%		39.2%	58.8%	2.0%	-19.7%		5.9%	3237
Hamilton    	28.8%	64.3%	6.9%	-35.5%		32.2%	66.2%	1.6%	-34.0%		-1.5%	131
Herkimer    	44.1%	51.1%	4.8%	-7.1%		41.0%	57.0%	2.0%	-16.0%		9.0%	1910
Jefferson    	42.3%	47.4%	10.3%	-5.1%		43.2%	54.7%	2.1%	-11.5%		6.4%	6343
Lewis    	39.7%	56.0%	4.3%	-16.4%		40.3%	57.9%	1.9%	-17.6%		1.3%	575

Livingston    	38.6%	55.9%	5.5%	-17.3%		38.1%	59.8%	2.1%	-21.7%		4.3%	3363
Madison    	42.5%	52.3%	5.2%	-9.8%		43.0%	55.2%	1.8%	-12.2%		2.4%	1686
Manhattan    	78.5%	15.1%	6.3%	63.4%		81.9%	16.7%	1.4%	65.3%		-1.9%	16421
Monroe    	50.8%	44.1%	5.1%	6.6%		50.4%	48.1%	1.6%	2.3%		4.4%	26322
Montgomery    	49.3%	46.9%	3.8%	2.5%		44.5%	53.6%	1.9%	-9.1%		11.6%	1388

Nassau    	57.6%	38.7%	3.7%	18.9%		52.3%	46.7%	1.0%	5.6%		13.3%	64523
Niagara    	51.7%	43.3%	5.0%	8.4%		49.2%	48.9%	1.9%	0.3%		8.1%	5919
Oneida    	45.4%	49.3%	5.3%	-3.9%		42.3%	55.4%	2.3%	-13.1%		9.2%	6538
Onondaga    	53.8%	40.9%	5.3%	12.9%		54.1%	44.1%	1.8%	9.9%		3.0%	10102
Ontario    	43.6%	51.4%	5.0%	-7.9%		42.0%	56.4%	1.6%	-14.4%		6.6%	4541

Orange    	45.8%	49.6%	4.6%	-3.8%		43.6%	55.0%	1.3%	-11.4%		7.6%	16027
Orleans    	37.8%	58.0%	4.2%	-20.2%		35.5%	63.0%	1.6%	-27.5%		7.3%	1150
Oswego    	47.0%	48.1%	4.9%	-1.0%		47.4%	50.6%	2.0%	-3.1%		2.1%	2869
Otsego    	45.4%	48.1%	6.5%	-2.7%		46.8%	51.2%	2.0%	-4.4%		1.7%	1252
Putnam    	43.5%	51.0%	5.5%	-7.4%		41.3%	57.5%	1.1%	-16.2%		8.8%	4697

Queens    	74.2%	22.5%	3.2%	51.7%		71.2%	28.0%	0.8%	43.2%		8.5%	41325
Rensselaer    	50.9%	43.2%	6.0%	7.7%		49.4%	48.4%	2.2%	1.0%		6.7%	4817
Rockland    	55.9%	40.2%	3.9%	15.7%		48.7%	49.8%	1.5%	-1.1%		16.8%	13655
StLawrence    	53.9%	41.2%	4.9%	12.7%		54.6%	43.5%	1.9%	11.0%		1.6%	1319
Saratoga    	45.4%	50.0%	4.7%	-4.6%		45.2%	53.0%	1.8%	-7.8%		3.2%	8344

Schenectdy    	53.2%	41.7%	5.2%	11.5%		51.5%	46.7%	1.8%	4.9%		6.6%	4008
Schoharie    	39.3%	55.5%	5.2%	-16.1%		38.6%	59.4%	2.1%	-20.8%		4.7%	941
Schuyler    	40.4%	53.8%	5.9%	-13.4%		40.0%	58.1%	1.9%	-18.1%		4.7%	721
Seneca    	47.9%	46.7%	5.4%	1.3%		45.5%	52.5%	2.1%	-7.0%		8.2%	1277
StatenIsl    	51.8%	45.2%	3.1%	6.6%		42.3%	56.9%	0.8%	-14.7%		21.3%	24335

Steuben    	36.3%	59.4%	4.3%	-23.2%		33.9%	64.4%	1.7%	-30.5%		7.3%	2906
Suffolk    	53.2%	41.8%	5.0%	11.4%		49.1%	48.8%	2.1%	0.3%		11.2%	77671
Sullivan    	49.8%	45.0%	5.2%	4.7%		48.5%	49.5%	1.9%	-1.0%		5.8%	2513
Tioga    	40.8%	54.5%	4.7%	-13.6%		40.3%	58.0%	1.7%	-17.7%		4.1%	1447
Tompkins    	54.0%	33.7%	12.3%	20.3%		63.9%	33.7%	2.4%	30.2%		-10.0%	627

Ulster    	48.2%	43.5%	8.3%	4.6%		54.3%	43.4%	2.3%	10.9%		-6.3%	4831
Warren    	43.2%	51.7%	5.1%	-8.6%		42.9%	55.1%	2.0%	-12.2%		3.7%	1913
Washington    	41.1%	53.1%	5.7%	-12.0%		42.1%	55.6%	2.4%	-13.5%		1.5%	1351
Wayne    	39.2%	56.4%	4.4%	-17.2%		38.0%	60.4%	1.7%	-22.4%		5.2%	2857
Wstchester    	58.4%	37.4%	4.2%	21.0%		57.9%	40.7%	1.5%	17.2%		3.8%	38923

Wyoming    	35.0%	60.4%	4.6%	-25.4%		33.7%	64.9%	1.4%	-31.2%		5.8%	919
Yates    	39.5%	55.4%	5.1%	-15.9%		38.8%	59.6%	1.6%	-20.8%		4.9%	735
											

______________________________________________________________________											

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.