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The Gender vote: 12:22am Nat. Exit Poll vs. State exits (so close it's scary)


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Original Post: The Gender vote: 12:22am Nat. Exit Poll vs. State exits (so close it's scary)

TruthIsAll

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Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Tue Sep-27-05 04:58 AM
Original Post

Edited by TruthIsAll on Mon Sep-26-05 04:42 PM

This is an analysis of the Gender Demographic, comparing the National Exit Poll
(13047 respondents) vs. weighted State Exit  polls (73,000 respondents)

As you can see below, the numbers match very closely. The weighted state poll
voting split (Male 46.35%/ Female 53.65%) is within 0.50% of the National Exit
Poll (46/54). Since the 46/54 is rounded, it's probably even closer. 

The 53.65/46.35 gender split is within 0.14% of the 53.51/46.49 census survey
of 60,000 voters. The survey said 125.7mm voted, but only 122.3mm votes were
recorded. The gender demographic has a 0.30% margin of error. What happened?
Where did those 3.4 million votes go? Lost in cyberspace? Spoiled punch cards?
In the trash?

According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry won 50.78% of the vote. If we force
the state horizontal vote percentage sum to 100% by allocating the small
differences to Kerry (see below), he wins the weighted exit polls with 51.01%. 

If the discrepancies are not allocated, he wins with 50.53%. 

Finally, if we allocate the discrepancies equally to Bush and Kerry, he ends up
with 50.77% -  a .01%  deviation from his 50.78% in the National Exit Poll.
Let's assume this was the case.

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NATIONAL AND STATE EXIT POLLS IS ONE-HUNDRETH OF A
PERCENT. HOW CLOSE CAN YOU GET? HOW MUCH CONFIRMATION DO YOU NEED? HOW CAN ALL
THESE POLLS (13047 + 73000 RESPONDENTS) BE WRONG? 

FOR THE UPTEENTH TIME, THEY ARE NOT WRONG. THE FINAL EXIT POLL (13660) RELEASED
AT 1:25PM WAS WRONG - BECAUSE IT WAS MATCHED TO A CORRUPTED VOTE.

The 12:22am National exit poll (13047 respondents) had a 1.0% margin of error.
Individual state exit polls have MoE's which vary from 2 to 4%, depending on
the sample-size. If you want to consider the state exit polls as one BIG poll
of 73,000 respondents, then the combined MoE is 0.37%. 

Go ahead, naysayers. Apply your 50% "design effect" and get the MoE
up to 0.55%. The problem is that Kerry won the national and state exit polls by
50.8-48.2%, a 2.6% margin, five times the full 51-state MoE (73,000 respondents)
and almost three times the National MoE (13047 respondents). 

Assuming a 0.70% MoE, the probability that Kerry would deviate from 50.78% in
the polls to 48.28% in the vote (a 2.5% move), is the following:

1-NORMDIST(0.5078, 0.4828, 0.007/1.96,TRUE)
= 1.28808E-12 

In other words, 1 in 776,348,841,126. One in 776 Billion.

No amount of reluctant Bush responders (rBr) or Gore voter "false
recall" (fGr ) will get you there.

Of course, the naysayers on that other forum want to stop talking about exit
polls. I wonder why. Well, too bad, we won't. The exit polls are gifts that
just keep on giving.

___________________________________________________________________

		STATE EXIT POLL ANALYSIS - GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC								
		Nov. 3, 12:22am, 73,000 respondents								


Case I: No adjustment to Horizontal Vote Discrepancy (see below)										
										
		Mix	Votes	Bush	Nader	Kerry				
	Male	46.35%	55.86	51.69%	0.54%	48.80%				
	Female	53.65%	64.65	47.68%	0.29%	52.03%				
										
	Total	100%		49.54%	0.40%	50.53%				
	Votes		120.51	59.70	0.49	60.90				
										
___________________________________________________________________
										
							
Case II: 	Horizontal Discrepancy added to Kerry percentage to equal
100%									
										
		Mix	Votes	Bush	Nader	Kerry				
	Male	46.43%	56.50	51.10%	0.53%	49.38%				
	Female	53.57%	65.18	47.30%	0.29%	52.42%				
										
	Total		100%	49.06%	0.40%	51.01%				
	Votes		121.68	59.70	0.49	62.07				
										
___________________________________________________________________
										
							
		NATIONAL EXIT POLL								
		Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents								
		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader					
	Male	46%	52%	47%	1%					
	Female	54%	45%	54%	1%					
	Total		48.22%	50.78%	1.00%					
	Votes	122.27	58.96	62.09	1.22					
										
___________________________________________________________________
										
										
										
		BUSH	NADER	KERRY	KERRY	Diff		BUSH	NADER	KERRY
										
	Poll	MoE		 <100%	Adj 100%		 Diff to Kerry	
AL	730	3.63%								
Male	46.00%	64.00%	0.00%	34.00%	36.00%	2.00%		64.00%	0.00%	36.00%
Fem	54.00%	53.00%	1.00%	46.00%	46.00%	0.00%		53.00%	1.00%	46.00%
Total	1,883	58.06%	0.54%	40.48%	41.40%	0.92%		58.06%	0.54%	41.40%
										
MaleS	45.08%	29.44%	0.00%	15.64%	16.56%	0.92%		554.21	0.00	311.74
FemS	54.00%	28.62%	0.54%	24.84%	24.84%	0.00%		538.78	10.17	467.62
										
AK	910	3.25%								
Male	48.00%	63.00%	4.00%	32.00%	33.00%	1.00%		63.00%	4.00%	33.00%
Fem	52.00%	53.00%	2.00%	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		53.00%	2.00%	45.00%
Total	312	57.80%	2.96%	38.76%	39.24%	0.48%		57.80%	2.96%	39.24%
										
MaleS	47.52%	30.24%	1.92%	15.36%	15.84%	0.48%		94.29	5.99	49.39
FemS	52.00%	27.56%	1.04%	23.40%	23.40%	0.00%		85.93	3.24	72.96
										
AZ	1859	2.27%								
Male	47.00%	56.00%	0.00%	43.00%	44.00%	1.00%		56.00%	0.00%	44.00%
Fem	53.00%	50.00%	0.00%	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%		50.00%	0.00%	50.00%
Total	2,013	52.82%	0.00%	46.71%	47.18%	0.47%		52.82%	0.00%	47.18%
										
MaleS	46.53%	26.32%	0.00%	20.21%	20.68%	0.47%		489.29	0.00	384.44
FemS	53.00%	26.50%	0.00%	26.50%	26.50%	0.00%		492.64	0.00	492.64
										
AR	1402	2.62%								
Male	43.00%	58.00%	1.00%	41.00%	41.00%	0.00%		58.00%	1.00%	41.00%
Fem	57.00%	49.00%	0.00%	50.00%	51.00%	1.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Total	1,056	52.87%	0.43%	46.13%	46.70%	0.57%		52.87%	0.43%	46.70%
										
MaleS	43.00%	24.94%	0.43%	17.63%	17.63%	0.00%		263.24	4.54	186.09
FemS	56.43%	27.93%	0.00%	28.50%	29.07%	0.57%		294.80	0.00	306.84
										
CA	919	3.23%								
Male	48.00%	46.00%	0.00%	51.00%	54.00%	3.00%		46.00%	0.00%	54.00%
Fem	52.00%	41.00%	0.00%	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		41.00%	0.00%	59.00%
										
Total	12,392	43.40%	0.00%	54.64%	56.60%	1.96%		43.40%	0.00%	56.60%
MaleS	46.56%	22.08%	0.00%	24.48%	25.92%	1.44%		2736.18	0.00	3212.03
FemS	51.48%	21.32%	0.00%	30.16%	30.68%	0.52%		2642.00	0.00	3801.90
										
CO	2515	1.95%								
Male	47.00%	51.00%	1.00%	46.00%	48.00%	2.00%		51.00%	1.00%	48.00%
Fem	53.00%	49.00%	0.00%	50.00%	51.00%	1.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
										
Total	2,128	49.94%	0.47%	48.12%	49.59%	1.47%		49.94%	0.47%	49.59%
MaleS	46.06%	23.97%	0.47%	21.62%	22.56%	0.94%		509.97	10.00	479.97
FemS	52.47%	25.97%	0.00%	26.50%	27.03%	0.53%		552.52	0.00	575.07
										
CT	872	3.32%								
Male	47.00%	42.00%	2.00%	55.00%	56.00%	1.00%		42.00%	2.00%	56.00%
Fem	53.00%	40.00%	1.00%	60.00%	59.00%	-1.00%		40.00%	1.00%	59.00%
										
Total	1,579	40.94%	1.47%	57.65%	57.59%	-0.06%		40.94%	1.47%	57.59%
MaleS	46.53%	19.74%	0.94%	25.85%	26.32%	0.47%		311.65	14.84	415.53
FemS	53.53%	21.20%	0.53%	31.80%	31.27%	-0.53%		334.70	8.37	493.68
										
DE	770	3.53%								
Male	43.00%	47.00%	1.00%	51.00%	52.00%	1.00%		47.00%	1.00%	52.00%
Fem	57.00%	36.00%	1.00%	62.00%	63.00%	1.00%		36.00%	1.00%	63.00%
										
Total	375	40.73%	1.00%	57.27%	58.27%	1.00%		40.73%	1.00%	58.27%
MaleS	42.57%	20.21%	0.43%	21.93%	22.36%	0.43%		75.81	1.61	83.87
FemS	56.43%	20.52%	0.57%	35.34%	35.91%	0.57%		76.97	2.14	134.69
										
DC	795	3.48%								
Male	44.00%	11.00%	1.00%	87.00%	88.00%	1.00%		11.00%	1.00%	88.00%
Fem	56.00%	8.00%	1.00%	92.00%	91.00%	-1.00%		8.00%	1.00%	91.00%
										
Total	227	9.32%	1.00%	89.80%	89.68%	-0.12%		9.32%	1.00%	89.68%
MaleS	43.56%	4.84%	0.44%	38.28%	38.72%	0.44%		10.98	1.00	87.88
FemS	56.56%	4.48%	0.56%	51.52%	50.96%	-0.56%		10.17	1.27	115.65
										
FL	2846	1.84%								
Male	46.00%	52.00%	1.00%	47.00%	47.00%	0.00%		52.00%	1.00%	47.00%
Fem	54.00%	48.00%	0.00%	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		48.00%	0.00%	52.00%
										
Total	7,604	49.84%	0.46%	49.70%	49.70%	0.00%		49.84%	0.46%	49.70%
MaleS	46.00%	23.92%	0.46%	21.62%	21.62%	0.00%		1818.78	34.98	1643.89
FemS	54.00%	25.92%	0.00%	28.08%	28.08%	0.00%		1970.85	0.00	2135.08
										
GA	1536	2.50%								
Male	44.00%	60.00%	0	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		60.00%	0.00%	40.00%
Fem	56.00%	54.00%	0	46.00%	46.00%	0.00%		54.00%	0.00%	46.00%
										
Total	3,299	56.64%	0.00%	42.92%	43.36%	0.44%		56.64%	0.00%	43.36%
MaleS	43.56%	26.40%	0.00%	17.16%	17.60%	0.44%		870.88	0.00	580.59
FemS	56.00%	30.24%	0.00%	25.76%	25.76%	0.00%		997.55	0.00	849.77
										
HI	499	4.39%								
Male	46.00%	51.00%	0	49.00%	49.00%	0.00%		51.00%	0.00%	49.00%
Fem	54.00%	43.00%	0	57.00%	57.00%	0.00%		43.00%	0.00%	57.00%
										
Total	429	46.68%	0.00%	53.32%	53.32%	0.00%		46.68%	0.00%	53.32%
MaleS	46.00%	23.46%	0.00%	22.54%	22.54%	0.00%		100.65	0.00	96.70
FemS	54.00%	23.22%	0.00%	30.78%	30.78%	0.00%		99.62	0.00	132.05
										
ID	539	4.22%								
Male	45.00%	69.00%	0	29.00%	31.00%	2.00%		69.00%	0.00%	31.00%
Fem	55.00%	63.00%	0	36.00%	37.00%	1.00%		63.00%	0.00%	37.00%
										
Total	598	65.70%	0.00%	32.85%	34.30%	1.45%		65.70%	0.00%	34.30%
MaleS	44.10%	31.05%	0.00%	13.05%	13.95%	0.90%		185.80	0.00	83.47
FemS	54.45%	34.65%	0.00%	19.80%	20.35%	0.55%		207.34	0.00	121.77
										
IL	1392	2.63%								
Male	46.00%	44.00%	0	55.00%	56.00%	1.00%		44.00%	0.00%	56.00%
Fem	54.00%	41.00%	0	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		41.00%	0.00%	59.00%
										
Total	5,275	42.38%	0.00%	56.62%	57.62%	1.00%		42.38%	0.00%	57.62%
MaleS	45.54%	20.24%	0.00%	25.30%	25.76%	0.46%		1067.72	0.00	1358.91
FemS	53.46%	22.14%	0.00%	31.32%	31.86%	0.54%		1167.95	0.00	1680.71
										
IN	926	4.39%								
Male	48.00%	60.00%	0.00%	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		60.00%	0.00%	40.00%
Fem	52.00%	57.00%	0.00%	42.00%	43.00%	1.00%		57.00%	0.00%	43.00%
										
Total	2,468	58.44%	0.00%	40.56%	41.56%	1.00%		58.44%	0.00%	41.56%
MaleS	47.52%	28.80%	0.00%	18.72%	19.20%	0.48%		710.77	0.00	473.84
FemS	51.48%	29.64%	0.00%	21.84%	22.36%	0.52%		731.50	0.00	551.83
										
IA	2502	2.00%								
Male	46.00%	50.00%	2.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		50.00%	2.00%	48.00%
Fem	54.00%	47.00%	1.00%	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		47.00%	1.00%	52.00%
										
Total	1,505	48.38%	1.46%	49.70%	50.16%	0.46%		48.38%	1.46%	50.16%
MaleS	45.54%	23.00%	0.92%	21.62%	22.08%	0.46%		346.21	13.85	332.36
FemS	54.00%	25.38%	0.54%	28.08%	28.08%	0.00%		382.04	8.13	422.68
										
KS	654	3.83%								
Male	45.00%	65.00%	1.00%	33.00%	34.00%	1.00%		65.00%	1.00%	34.00%
Fem	55.00%	64.00%	1.00%	35.00%	35.00%	0.00%		64.00%	1.00%	35.00%
										
Total	1,188	64.45%	1.00%	34.10%	34.55%	0.45%		64.45%	1.00%	34.55%
MaleS	44.55%	29.25%	0.45%	14.85%	15.30%	0.45%		347.41	5.34	181.72
FemS	55.00%	35.20%	0.55%	19.25%	19.25%	0.00%		418.09	6.53	228.64
										
KY	1034	3.05%								
Male	46.00%	60.00%	1.00%	38.00%	39.00%	1.00%		60.00%	1.00%	39.00%
Fem	54.00%	57.00%	0.00%	42.00%	43.00%	1.00%		57.00%	0.00%	43.00%
										
Total	1,796	58.38%	0.46%	40.16%	41.16%	1.00%		58.38%	0.46%	41.16%
MaleS	45.54%	27.60%	0.46%	17.48%	17.94%	0.46%		495.66	8.26	322.18
FemS	53.46%	30.78%	0.00%	22.68%	23.22%	0.54%		552.77	0.00	417.00
										
LA	1669	2.40%								
Male	45.00%	58.00%	1.00%	40.00%	41.00%	1.00%		58.00%	1.00%	41.00%
Fem	55.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
										
Total	1,939	54.70%	0.45%	43.85%	44.85%	1.00%		54.70%	0.45%	44.85%
MaleS	44.55%	26.10%	0.45%	18.00%	18.45%	0.45%		506.02	8.72	357.70
FemS	54.45%	28.60%	0.00%	25.85%	26.40%	0.55%		554.49	0.00	511.83
										
ME	1968	2.21%								
Male	47.00%	48.00%	2.00%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%		48.00%	2.00%	50.00%
Fem	53.00%	41.00%	1.00%	58.00%	58.00%	0.00%		41.00%	1.00%	58.00%
										
Total	741	44.29%	1.47%	53.77%	54.24%	0.47%		44.29%	1.47%	54.24%
MaleS	46.53%	22.56%	0.94%	23.03%	23.50%	0.47%		167.11	6.96	174.08
FemS	53.00%	21.73%	0.53%	30.74%	30.74%	0.00%		160.96	3.93	227.71
										
MD	1000	3.10%								
Male	46.00%	45.00%	0.00%	54.00%	55.00%	1.00%		45.00%	0.00%	55.00%
Fem	54.00%	40.00%	1.00%	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		40.00%	1.00%	59.00%
										
Total	2,384	42.30%	0.54%	56.16%	57.16%	1.00%		42.30%	0.54%	57.16%
MaleS	45.54%	20.70%	0.00%	24.84%	25.30%	0.46%		493.53	0.00	603.20
FemS	53.46%	21.60%	0.54%	31.32%	31.86%	0.54%		514.99	12.87	759.61
										
MA	869	3.32%								
Male	48.00%	36.00%	0.00%	61.00%	64.00%	3.00%		36.00%	0.00%	64.00%
Fem	52.00%	30.00%	0.00%	69.00%	70.00%	1.00%		30.00%	0.00%	70.00%
										
Total	2,905	32.88%	0.00%	65.16%	67.12%	1.96%		32.88%	0.00%	67.12%
MaleS	46.56%	17.28%	0.00%	29.28%	30.72%	1.44%		502.05	0.00	892.53
FemS	51.48%	15.60%	0.00%	35.88%	36.40%	0.52%		453.24	0.00	1057.55
										
MI	2452	1.98%								
Male	50.00%	48.00%	1.00%	49.00%	51.00%	2.00%		48.00%	1.00%	51.00%
Fem	50.00%	45.00%	1.00%	54.00%	54.00%	0.00%		45.00%	1.00%	54.00%
										
Total	4,838	46.50%	1.00%	51.50%	52.50%	1.00%		46.50%	1.00%	52.50%
MaleS	49.00%	24.00%	0.50%	24.50%	25.50%	1.00%		1161.08	24.19	1233.64
FemS	50.00%	22.50%	0.50%	27.00%	27.00%	0.00%		1088.51	24.19	1306.21
										
MN	2178	2.10%								
Male	48.00%	45.00%	1.00%	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%		45.00%	1.00%	54.00%
Fem	52.00%	44.00%	1.00%	54.00%	55.00%	1.00%		44.00%	1.00%	55.00%
										
Total	2,823	44.48%	1.00%	53.52%	54.52%	1.00%		44.48%	1.00%	54.52%
MaleS	47.52%	21.60%	0.48%	25.44%	25.92%	0.48%		609.66	13.55	731.60
FemS	51.48%	22.88%	0.52%	28.08%	28.60%	0.52%		645.79	14.68	807.24
										
MS	798	3.47%								
Male	47.00%	56.00%	1.00%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		56.00%	1.00%	43.00%
Fem	53.00%	57.00%	0.00%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		57.00%	0.00%	43.00%
										
Total	1,138	56.53%	0.47%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		56.53%	0.47%	43.00%
MaleS	47.00%	26.32%	0.47%	20.21%	20.21%	0.00%		299.58	5.35	230.04
FemS	53.00%	30.21%	0.00%	22.79%	22.79%	0.00%		343.86	0.00	259.40
										
MO	2158	2.11%								
Male	47.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
Fem	53.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
										
Total	2,731	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
MaleS	46.53%	24.44%	0.00%	22.09%	22.56%	0.47%		667.55	0.00	616.20
FemS	52.47%	27.56%	0.00%	24.91%	25.44%	0.53%		752.76	0.00	694.86
										
MT	640	3.87%								
Male	51.00%	57.00%	3.00%	38.00%	40.00%	2.00%		57.00%	3.00%	40.00%
Fem	49.00%	59.00%	3.00%	37.00%	38.00%	1.00%		59.00%	3.00%	38.00%
										
Total	450	57.98%	3.00%	37.51%	39.02%	1.51%		57.98%	3.00%	39.02%
MaleS	49.98%	29.07%	1.53%	19.38%	20.40%	1.02%		130.94	6.89	91.89
FemS	48.51%	28.91%	1.47%	18.13%	18.62%	0.49%		130.22	6.62	83.87
										
NE	785	3.50%								
Male	48.00%	62.00%	2.00%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		62.00%	2.00%	36.00%
Fem	52.00%	63.00%	1.00%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		63.00%	1.00%	36.00%
										
Total	777	62.52%	1.48%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		62.52%	1.48%	36.00%
MaleS	48.00%	29.76%	0.96%	17.28%	17.28%	0.00%		231.29	7.46	134.30
FemS	52.00%	32.76%	0.52%	18.72%	18.72%	0.00%		254.60	4.04	145.49
										
NV	2116	2.13%								
Male	48.00%	51.00%	3.00%	45.00%	46.00%	1.00%		51.00%	3.00%	46.00%
Fem	52.00%	45.00%	1.00%	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%		45.00%	1.00%	54.00%
										
Total	826	47.88%	1.96%	49.16%	50.16%	1.00%		47.88%	1.96%	50.16%
MaleS	47.52%	24.48%	1.44%	21.60%	22.08%	0.48%		202.18	11.89	182.36
FemS	51.48%	23.40%	0.52%	27.56%	28.08%	0.52%		193.26	4.29	231.91
										
NH	1849	2.28%								
Male	51.00%	47.00%	0.00%	52.00%	53.00%	1.00%		47.00%	0.00%	53.00%
Fem	49.00%	41.00%	2.00%	58.00%	57.00%	-1.00%		41.00%	2.00%	57.00%
										
Total	676	44.06%	0.98%	54.94%	54.96%	0.02%		44.06%	0.98%	54.96%
MaleS	50.49%	23.97%	0.00%	26.52%	27.03%	0.51%		162.09	0.00	182.78
FemS	49.49%	20.09%	0.98%	28.42%	27.93%	-0.49%		135.85	6.63	188.87
										
NM	1951	2.22%								
Male	46.00%	48.00%	2.00%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%		48.00%	2.00%	50.00%
Fem	54.00%	47.00%	1.00%	51.00%	52.00%	1.00%		47.00%	1.00%	52.00%
										
Total	756	47.46%	1.46%	50.08%	51.08%	1.00%		47.46%	1.46%	51.08%
MaleS	45.54%	22.08%	0.92%	22.54%	23.00%	0.46%		166.99	6.96	173.95
FemS	53.46%	25.38%	0.54%	27.54%	28.08%	0.54%		191.95	4.08	212.37
										
NJ	1520.00	2.51%								
Male	47.00%	49.00%	0.00%	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Fem	53.00%	44.00%	0.00%	56.00%	56.00%	0.00%		44.00%	0.00%	56.00%
										
Total	3,610	46.35%	0.00%	53.65%	53.65%	0.00%		46.35%	0.00%	53.65%
MaleS	47.00%	23.03%	0.00%	23.97%	23.97%	0.00%		831.37	0.00	865.30
FemS	53.00%	23.32%	0.00%	29.68%	29.68%	0.00%		841.83	0.00	1071.42
										
NY	1476	2.55%								
Male	47.00%	35%	0	65.00%	65.00%	0.00%		35.00%	0.00%	65.00%
Fem	53.00%	38%	0	62.00%	62.00%	0.00%		38.00%	0.00%	62.00%
										
Total	7,389	36.59%	0.00%	63.41%	63.41%	0.00%		36.59%	0.00%	63.41%
MaleS	47.00%	16.45%	0.00%	30.55%	30.55%	0.00%		1215.43	0.00	2257.22
FemS	53.00%	20.14%	0.00%	32.86%	32.86%	0.00%		1488.07	0.00	2427.90
										
NC	2099	2.14%								
Male	47.00%	55%	0	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		55.00%	0.00%	45.00%
Fem	53.00%	49%	0	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
										
Total	3,501	51.82%	0.00%	48.18%	48.18%	0.00%		51.82%	0.00%	48.18%
MaleS	47.00%	25.85%	0.00%	21.15%	21.15%	0.00%		904.92	0.00	740.39
FemS	53.00%	25.97%	0.00%	27.03%	27.03%	0.00%		909.12	0.00	946.23
										
ND	649	3.85%								
Male	49.00%	68.00%	2.00%	29.00%	30.00%	1.00%		68.00%	2.00%	30.00%
Fem	51.00%	61.00%	2.00%	36.00%	37.00%	1.00%		61.00%	2.00%	37.00%
										
Total	313	64.43%	2.00%	32.57%	33.57%	1.00%		64.43%	2.00%	33.57%
MaleS	48.51%	33.32%	0.98%	14.21%	14.70%	0.49%		104.23	3.07	45.99
FemS	50.49%	31.11%	1.02%	18.36%	18.87%	0.51%		97.32	3.19	59.03
										
OH	1963	2.21%								
Male	47.00%	49.00%	0	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Fem	53.00%	47.00%	0	53.00%	53.00%	0.00%		47.00%	0.00%	53.00%
										
Total	5,625	47.94%	0.00%	52.06%	52.06%	0.00%		47.94%	0.00%	52.06%
MaleS	47.00%	23.03%	0.00%	23.97%	23.97%	0.00%		1295.55	0.00	1348.42
FemS	53.00%	24.91%	0.00%	28.09%	28.09%	0.00%		1401.30	0.00	1580.19
										
OK	1539	2.50%								
Male	48.00%	66.00%	0	33.00%	34.00%	1.00%		66.00%	0.00%	34.00%
Fem	52.00%	64.00%	0	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		64.00%	0.00%	36.00%
										
Total	1,464	64.96%	0.00%	34.56%	35.04%	0.48%		64.96%	0.00%	35.04%
MaleS	47.52%	31.68%	0.00%	15.84%	16.32%	0.48%		463.72	0.00	238.89
FemS	52.00%	33.28%	0.00%	18.72%	18.72%	0.00%		487.14	0.00	274.02
										
OR	1054	3.02%								
Male	45.00%	55.00%	0	42.00%	45.00%	3.00%		55.00%	0.00%	45.00%
Fem	55.00%	42.00%	0	57.00%	58.00%	1.00%		42.00%	0.00%	58.00%
										
Total	1,828	47.85%	0.00%	50.25%	52.15%	1.90%		47.85%	0.00%	52.15%
MaleS	43.65%	24.75%	0.00%	18.90%	20.25%	1.35%		452.39	0.00	370.13
FemS	54.45%	23.10%	0.00%	31.35%	31.90%	0.55%		422.23	0.00	583.08
										
PA	1930	2.23%								
Male	47.00%	48.00%	0	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		48.00%	0.00%	52.00%
Fem	53.00%	43.00%	0	56.00%	57.00%	1.00%		43.00%	0.00%	57.00%
										
Total	5,766	45.35%	0.00%	54.12%	54.65%	0.53%		45.35%	0.00%	54.65%
MaleS	47.00%	22.56%	0.00%	24.44%	24.44%	0.00%		1300.76	0.00	1409.15
FemS	52.47%	22.79%	0.00%	29.68%	30.21%	0.53%		1314.02	0.00	1741.84
										
RI	809	3.45%								
Male	47.00%	37.00%	2.00%	60.00%	61.00%	1.00%		37.00%	2.00%	61.00%
Fem	53.00%	33.00%	2.00%	65.00%	65.00%	0.00%		33.00%	2.00%	65.00%
										
Total	436	34.88%	2.00%	62.65%	63.12%	0.47%		34.88%	2.00%	63.12%
MaleS	46.53%	17.39%	0.94%	28.20%	28.67%	0.47%		75.83	4.10	125.01
FemS	53.00%	17.49%	1.06%	34.45%	34.45%	0.00%		76.26	4.62	150.21
										
SC	1935	2.23%								
Male	43.00%	58.00%	1.00%	40.00%	41.00%	1.00%		58.00%	1.00%	41.00%
Fem	57.00%	50.00%	1.00%	49.00%	49.00%	0.00%		50.00%	1.00%	49.00%
										
Total	1,616	53.44%	1.00%	45.13%	45.56%	0.43%		53.44%	1.00%	45.56%
MaleS	42.57%	24.94%	0.43%	17.20%	17.63%	0.43%		402.93	6.95	284.83
FemS	57.00%	28.50%	0.57%	27.93%	27.93%	0.00%		460.45	9.21	451.24
										
SD	1495	2.53%								
Male	51.00%	61.00%	3.00%	35.00%	36.00%	1.00%		61.00%	3.00%	36.00%
Fem	49.00%	61.00%	1.00%	38.00%	38.00%	0.00%		61.00%	1.00%	38.00%
										
Total	388	61.00%	2.02%	36.47%	36.98%	0.51%		61.00%	2.02%	36.98%
MaleS	50.49%	31.11%	1.53%	17.85%	18.36%	0.51%		120.77	5.94	71.28
FemS	49.00%	29.89%	0.49%	18.62%	18.62%	0.00%		116.04	1.90	72.29
										
TN	1774	2.33%								
Male	48.00%	58.00%	2.00%	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		58.00%	2.00%	40.00%
Fem	52.00%	58.00%	0.00%	42.00%	42.00%	0.00%		58.00%	0.00%	42.00%
										
Total	2,437	58.00%	0.96%	40.56%	41.04%	0.48%		58.00%	0.96%	41.04%
MaleS	47.52%	27.84%	0.96%	18.72%	19.20%	0.48%		678.55	23.40	467.96
FemS	52.00%	30.16%	0.00%	21.84%	21.84%	0.00%		735.09	0.00	532.31
										
TX	1671	2.40%								
Male	46.00%	59.00%	0	39.00%	41.00%	2.00%		59.00%	0.00%	41.00%
Fem	54.00%	65.00%	0	34.00%	35.00%	1.00%		65.00%	0.00%	35.00%
										
Total	7,410	62.24%	0.00%	36.30%	37.76%	1.46%		62.24%	0.00%	37.76%
MaleS	45.08%	27.14%	0.00%	17.94%	18.86%	0.92%		2011.13	0.00	1397.56
FemS	53.46%	35.10%	0.00%	18.36%	18.90%	0.54%		2600.98	0.00	1400.53
										
UT	798	3.47%								
Male	46.00%	67.00%	3.00%	28.00%	30.00%	2.00%		67.00%	3.00%	30.00%
Fem	54.00%	69.00%	1.00%	30.00%	30.00%	0.00%		69.00%	1.00%	30.00%
										
Total	927	68.08%	1.92%	29.08%	30.00%	0.92%		68.08%	1.92%	30.00%
MaleS	45.08%	30.82%	1.38%	12.88%	13.80%	0.92%		285.55	12.79	127.86
FemS	54.00%	37.26%	0.54%	16.20%	16.20%	0.00%		345.21	5.00	150.09
										
VT	685	3.74%								
Male	45.00%	36.00%	2.00%	62.00%	62.00%	0.00%		36.00%	2.00%	62.00%
Fem	55.00%	31.00%	3.00%	65.00%	66.00%	1.00%		31.00%	3.00%	66.00%
										
Total	311	33.25%	2.55%	63.65%	64.20%	0.55%		33.25%	2.55%	64.20%
MaleS	45.00%	16.20%	0.90%	27.90%	27.90%	0.00%		50.36	2.80	86.73
FemS	54.45%	17.05%	1.65%	35.75%	36.30%	0.55%		53.00	5.13	112.84
										
VA	1432	2.59%								
Male	47.00%	53%	0	47.00%	47.00%	0.00%		53.00%	0.00%	47.00%
Fem	53.00%	48%	0	52.00%	66.00%	14.00%		48.00%	0.00%	66.00%
										
Total	3,193	50.35%	0.00%	49.65%	57.07%	7.42%		50.35%	0.00%	57.07%
MaleS	47.00%	24.91%	0.00%	22.09%	22.09%	0.00%		795.35	0.00	705.31
FemS	53.00%	25.44%	0.00%	27.56%	34.98%	7.42%		812.27	0.00	1116.87
										
WA	2123	2.13%								
Male	43.00%	48.00%	1.00%	49.00%	51.00%	2.00%		48.00%	1.00%	51.00%
Fem	57.00%	41.00%	1.00%	58.00%	58.00%	0.00%		41.00%	1.00%	58.00%
										
Total	2,857	44.01%	1.00%	54.13%	54.99%	0.86%		44.01%	1.00%	54.99%
MaleS	42.14%	20.64%	0.43%	21.07%	21.93%	0.86%		589.73	12.29	626.59
FemS	57.00%	23.37%	0.57%	33.06%	33.06%	0.00%		667.73	16.29	944.60
										
WV	1722	2.36%								
Male	47.00%	54.00%	1.00%	44.00%	45.00%	1.00%		54.00%	1.00%	45.00%
Fem	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		54.00%	1.00%	45.00%
										
Total	756	54.00%	1.00%	44.53%	45.00%	0.47%		54.00%	1.00%	45.00%
MaleS	46.53%	25.38%	0.47%	20.68%	21.15%	0.47%		191.84	3.55	159.87
FemS	53.00%	28.62%	0.53%	23.85%	23.85%	0.00%		216.33	4.01	180.28
										
WI	2223	2.08%								
Male	47.00%	52.00%	2.00%	45.00%	46.00%	1.00%		52.00%	2.00%	46.00%
Fem	53.00%	46.00%	1.00%	53.00%	53.00%	0.00%		46.00%	1.00%	53.00%
										
Total	2,993	48.82%	1.47%	49.24%	49.71%	0.47%		48.82%	1.47%	49.71%
MaleS	46.53%	24.44%	0.94%	21.15%	21.62%	0.47%		731.52	28.14	647.12
FemS	53.00%	24.38%	0.53%	28.09%	28.09%	0.00%		729.73	15.86	840.77
										
WY	684	3.75%								
Male	51.00%	67.00%	3.00%	28.00%	30.00%	2.00%		67.00%	3.00%	30.00%
Fem	49.00%	64.00%	1.00%	34.00%	35.00%	1.00%		64.00%	1.00%	35.00%
										
Total	243	65.53%	2.02%	30.94%	32.45%	1.51%		65.53%	2.02%	32.45%
MaleS	49.98%	34.17%	1.53%	14.28%	15.30%	1.02%		83.02	3.72	37.17
FemS	48.51%	31.36%	0.49%	16.66%	17.15%	0.49%		76.19	1.19	41.67
		BUSH	NADER	KERRY	KERRY	Diff		BUSH	NADER	KERRY
										
	Poll	MoE		 <100%	Adj 100%				 Diff to Kerry	
AL	730	3.63%								
Male	46.00%	64.00%	0.00%	34.00%	36.00%	2.00%		64.00%	0.00%	36.00%
Fem	54.00%	53.00%	1.00%	46.00%	46.00%	0.00%		53.00%	1.00%	46.00%
Total	1,883	58.06%	0.54%	40.48%	41.40%	0.92%		58.06%	0.54%	41.40%
										
MaleS	45.08%	29.44%	0.00%	15.64%	16.56%	0.92%		554.21	0.00	311.74
FemS	54.00%	28.62%	0.54%	24.84%	24.84%	0.00%		538.78	10.17	467.62
										
AK	910	3.25%								
Male	48.00%	63.00%	4.00%	32.00%	33.00%	1.00%		63.00%	4.00%	33.00%
Fem	52.00%	53.00%	2.00%	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		53.00%	2.00%	45.00%
Total	312	57.80%	2.96%	38.76%	39.24%	0.48%		57.80%	2.96%	39.24%
										
MaleS	47.52%	30.24%	1.92%	15.36%	15.84%	0.48%		94.29	5.99	49.39
FemS	52.00%	27.56%	1.04%	23.40%	23.40%	0.00%		85.93	3.24	72.96
										
AZ	1859	2.27%								
Male	47.00%	56.00%	0.00%	43.00%	44.00%	1.00%		56.00%	0.00%	44.00%
Fem	53.00%	50.00%	0.00%	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%		50.00%	0.00%	50.00%
Total	2,013	52.82%	0.00%	46.71%	47.18%	0.47%		52.82%	0.00%	47.18%
										
MaleS	46.53%	26.32%	0.00%	20.21%	20.68%	0.47%		489.29	0.00	384.44
FemS	53.00%	26.50%	0.00%	26.50%	26.50%	0.00%		492.64	0.00	492.64
										
AR	1402	2.62%								
Male	43.00%	58.00%	1.00%	41.00%	41.00%	0.00%		58.00%	1.00%	41.00%
Fem	57.00%	49.00%	0.00%	50.00%	51.00%	1.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Total	1,056	52.87%	0.43%	46.13%	46.70%	0.57%		52.87%	0.43%	46.70%
										
MaleS	43.00%	24.94%	0.43%	17.63%	17.63%	0.00%		263.24	4.54	186.09
FemS	56.43%	27.93%	0.00%	28.50%	29.07%	0.57%		294.80	0.00	306.84
										
CA	919	3.23%								
Male	48.00%	46.00%	0.00%	51.00%	54.00%	3.00%		46.00%	0.00%	54.00%
Fem	52.00%	41.00%	0.00%	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		41.00%	0.00%	59.00%
										
Total	12,392	43.40%	0.00%	54.64%	56.60%	1.96%		43.40%	0.00%	56.60%
MaleS	46.56%	22.08%	0.00%	24.48%	25.92%	1.44%		2736.18	0.00	3212.03
FemS	51.48%	21.32%	0.00%	30.16%	30.68%	0.52%		2642.00	0.00	3801.90
										
CO	2515	1.95%								
Male	47.00%	51.00%	1.00%	46.00%	48.00%	2.00%		51.00%	1.00%	48.00%
Fem	53.00%	49.00%	0.00%	50.00%	51.00%	1.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
										
Total	2,128	49.94%	0.47%	48.12%	49.59%	1.47%		49.94%	0.47%	49.59%
MaleS	46.06%	23.97%	0.47%	21.62%	22.56%	0.94%		509.97	10.00	479.97
FemS	52.47%	25.97%	0.00%	26.50%	27.03%	0.53%		552.52	0.00	575.07
										
CT	872	3.32%								
Male	47.00%	42.00%	2.00%	55.00%	56.00%	1.00%		42.00%	2.00%	56.00%
Fem	53.00%	40.00%	1.00%	60.00%	59.00%	-1.00%		40.00%	1.00%	59.00%
										
Total	1,579	40.94%	1.47%	57.65%	57.59%	-0.06%		40.94%	1.47%	57.59%
MaleS	46.53%	19.74%	0.94%	25.85%	26.32%	0.47%		311.65	14.84	415.53
FemS	53.53%	21.20%	0.53%	31.80%	31.27%	-0.53%		334.70	8.37	493.68
										
DE	770	3.53%								
Male	43.00%	47.00%	1.00%	51.00%	52.00%	1.00%		47.00%	1.00%	52.00%
Fem	57.00%	36.00%	1.00%	62.00%	63.00%	1.00%		36.00%	1.00%	63.00%
										
Total	375	40.73%	1.00%	57.27%	58.27%	1.00%		40.73%	1.00%	58.27%
MaleS	42.57%	20.21%	0.43%	21.93%	22.36%	0.43%		75.81	1.61	83.87
FemS	56.43%	20.52%	0.57%	35.34%	35.91%	0.57%		76.97	2.14	134.69
										
DC	795	3.48%								
Male	44.00%	11.00%	1.00%	87.00%	88.00%	1.00%		11.00%	1.00%	88.00%
Fem	56.00%	8.00%	1.00%	92.00%	91.00%	-1.00%		8.00%	1.00%	91.00%
										
Total	227	9.32%	1.00%	89.80%	89.68%	-0.12%		9.32%	1.00%	89.68%
MaleS	43.56%	4.84%	0.44%	38.28%	38.72%	0.44%		10.98	1.00	87.88
FemS	56.56%	4.48%	0.56%	51.52%	50.96%	-0.56%		10.17	1.27	115.65
										
FL	2846	1.84%								
Male	46.00%	52.00%	1.00%	47.00%	47.00%	0.00%		52.00%	1.00%	47.00%
Fem	54.00%	48.00%	0.00%	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		48.00%	0.00%	52.00%
										
Total	7,604	49.84%	0.46%	49.70%	49.70%	0.00%		49.84%	0.46%	49.70%
MaleS	46.00%	23.92%	0.46%	21.62%	21.62%	0.00%		1818.78	34.98	1643.89
FemS	54.00%	25.92%	0.00%	28.08%	28.08%	0.00%		1970.85	0.00	2135.08
										
GA	1536	2.50%								
Male	44.00%	60.00%	0	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		60.00%	0.00%	40.00%
Fem	56.00%	54.00%	0	46.00%	46.00%	0.00%		54.00%	0.00%	46.00%
										
Total	3,299	56.64%	0.00%	42.92%	43.36%	0.44%		56.64%	0.00%	43.36%
MaleS	43.56%	26.40%	0.00%	17.16%	17.60%	0.44%		870.88	0.00	580.59
FemS	56.00%	30.24%	0.00%	25.76%	25.76%	0.00%		997.55	0.00	849.77
										
HI	499	4.39%								
Male	46.00%	51.00%	0	49.00%	49.00%	0.00%		51.00%	0.00%	49.00%
Fem	54.00%	43.00%	0	57.00%	57.00%	0.00%		43.00%	0.00%	57.00%
										
Total	429	46.68%	0.00%	53.32%	53.32%	0.00%		46.68%	0.00%	53.32%
MaleS	46.00%	23.46%	0.00%	22.54%	22.54%	0.00%		100.65	0.00	96.70
FemS	54.00%	23.22%	0.00%	30.78%	30.78%	0.00%		99.62	0.00	132.05
										
ID	539	4.22%								
Male	45.00%	69.00%	0	29.00%	31.00%	2.00%		69.00%	0.00%	31.00%
Fem	55.00%	63.00%	0	36.00%	37.00%	1.00%		63.00%	0.00%	37.00%
										
Total	598	65.70%	0.00%	32.85%	34.30%	1.45%		65.70%	0.00%	34.30%
MaleS	44.10%	31.05%	0.00%	13.05%	13.95%	0.90%		185.80	0.00	83.47
FemS	54.45%	34.65%	0.00%	19.80%	20.35%	0.55%		207.34	0.00	121.77
										
IL	1392	2.63%								
Male	46.00%	44.00%	0	55.00%	56.00%	1.00%		44.00%	0.00%	56.00%
Fem	54.00%	41.00%	0	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		41.00%	0.00%	59.00%
										
Total	5,275	42.38%	0.00%	56.62%	57.62%	1.00%		42.38%	0.00%	57.62%
MaleS	45.54%	20.24%	0.00%	25.30%	25.76%	0.46%		1067.72	0.00	1358.91
FemS	53.46%	22.14%	0.00%	31.32%	31.86%	0.54%		1167.95	0.00	1680.71
										
IN	926	4.39%								
Male	48.00%	60.00%	0.00%	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		60.00%	0.00%	40.00%
Fem	52.00%	57.00%	0.00%	42.00%	43.00%	1.00%		57.00%	0.00%	43.00%
										
Total	2,468	58.44%	0.00%	40.56%	41.56%	1.00%		58.44%	0.00%	41.56%
MaleS	47.52%	28.80%	0.00%	18.72%	19.20%	0.48%		710.77	0.00	473.84
FemS	51.48%	29.64%	0.00%	21.84%	22.36%	0.52%		731.50	0.00	551.83
										
IA	2502	2.00%								
Male	46.00%	50.00%	2.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		50.00%	2.00%	48.00%
Fem	54.00%	47.00%	1.00%	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		47.00%	1.00%	52.00%
										
Total	1,505	48.38%	1.46%	49.70%	50.16%	0.46%		48.38%	1.46%	50.16%
MaleS	45.54%	23.00%	0.92%	21.62%	22.08%	0.46%		346.21	13.85	332.36
FemS	54.00%	25.38%	0.54%	28.08%	28.08%	0.00%		382.04	8.13	422.68
										
KS	654	3.83%								
Male	45.00%	65.00%	1.00%	33.00%	34.00%	1.00%		65.00%	1.00%	34.00%
Fem	55.00%	64.00%	1.00%	35.00%	35.00%	0.00%		64.00%	1.00%	35.00%
										
Total	1,188	64.45%	1.00%	34.10%	34.55%	0.45%		64.45%	1.00%	34.55%
MaleS	44.55%	29.25%	0.45%	14.85%	15.30%	0.45%		347.41	5.34	181.72
FemS	55.00%	35.20%	0.55%	19.25%	19.25%	0.00%		418.09	6.53	228.64
										
KY	1034	3.05%								
Male	46.00%	60.00%	1.00%	38.00%	39.00%	1.00%		60.00%	1.00%	39.00%
Fem	54.00%	57.00%	0.00%	42.00%	43.00%	1.00%		57.00%	0.00%	43.00%
										
Total	1,796	58.38%	0.46%	40.16%	41.16%	1.00%		58.38%	0.46%	41.16%
MaleS	45.54%	27.60%	0.46%	17.48%	17.94%	0.46%		495.66	8.26	322.18
FemS	53.46%	30.78%	0.00%	22.68%	23.22%	0.54%		552.77	0.00	417.00
										
LA	1669	2.40%								
Male	45.00%	58.00%	1.00%	40.00%	41.00%	1.00%		58.00%	1.00%	41.00%
Fem	55.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
										
Total	1,939	54.70%	0.45%	43.85%	44.85%	1.00%		54.70%	0.45%	44.85%
MaleS	44.55%	26.10%	0.45%	18.00%	18.45%	0.45%		506.02	8.72	357.70
FemS	54.45%	28.60%	0.00%	25.85%	26.40%	0.55%		554.49	0.00	511.83
										
ME	1968	2.21%								
Male	47.00%	48.00%	2.00%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%		48.00%	2.00%	50.00%
Fem	53.00%	41.00%	1.00%	58.00%	58.00%	0.00%		41.00%	1.00%	58.00%
										
Total	741	44.29%	1.47%	53.77%	54.24%	0.47%		44.29%	1.47%	54.24%
MaleS	46.53%	22.56%	0.94%	23.03%	23.50%	0.47%		167.11	6.96	174.08
FemS	53.00%	21.73%	0.53%	30.74%	30.74%	0.00%		160.96	3.93	227.71
										
MD	1000	3.10%								
Male	46.00%	45.00%	0.00%	54.00%	55.00%	1.00%		45.00%	0.00%	55.00%
Fem	54.00%	40.00%	1.00%	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		40.00%	1.00%	59.00%
										
Total	2,384	42.30%	0.54%	56.16%	57.16%	1.00%		42.30%	0.54%	57.16%
MaleS	45.54%	20.70%	0.00%	24.84%	25.30%	0.46%		493.53	0.00	603.20
FemS	53.46%	21.60%	0.54%	31.32%	31.86%	0.54%		514.99	12.87	759.61
										
MA	869	3.32%								
Male	48.00%	36.00%	0.00%	61.00%	64.00%	3.00%		36.00%	0.00%	64.00%
Fem	52.00%	30.00%	0.00%	69.00%	70.00%	1.00%		30.00%	0.00%	70.00%
										
Total	2,905	32.88%	0.00%	65.16%	67.12%	1.96%		32.88%	0.00%	67.12%
MaleS	46.56%	17.28%	0.00%	29.28%	30.72%	1.44%		502.05	0.00	892.53
FemS	51.48%	15.60%	0.00%	35.88%	36.40%	0.52%		453.24	0.00	1057.55
										
MI	2452	1.98%								
Male	50.00%	48.00%	1.00%	49.00%	51.00%	2.00%		48.00%	1.00%	51.00%
Fem	50.00%	45.00%	1.00%	54.00%	54.00%	0.00%		45.00%	1.00%	54.00%
										
Total	4,838	46.50%	1.00%	51.50%	52.50%	1.00%		46.50%	1.00%	52.50%
MaleS	49.00%	24.00%	0.50%	24.50%	25.50%	1.00%		1161.08	24.19	1233.64
FemS	50.00%	22.50%	0.50%	27.00%	27.00%	0.00%		1088.51	24.19	1306.21
										
MN	2178	2.10%								
Male	48.00%	45.00%	1.00%	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%		45.00%	1.00%	54.00%
Fem	52.00%	44.00%	1.00%	54.00%	55.00%	1.00%		44.00%	1.00%	55.00%
										
Total	2,823	44.48%	1.00%	53.52%	54.52%	1.00%		44.48%	1.00%	54.52%
MaleS	47.52%	21.60%	0.48%	25.44%	25.92%	0.48%		609.66	13.55	731.60
FemS	51.48%	22.88%	0.52%	28.08%	28.60%	0.52%		645.79	14.68	807.24
										
MS	798	3.47%								
Male	47.00%	56.00%	1.00%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		56.00%	1.00%	43.00%
Fem	53.00%	57.00%	0.00%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		57.00%	0.00%	43.00%
										
Total	1,138	56.53%	0.47%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		56.53%	0.47%	43.00%
MaleS	47.00%	26.32%	0.47%	20.21%	20.21%	0.00%		299.58	5.35	230.04
FemS	53.00%	30.21%	0.00%	22.79%	22.79%	0.00%		343.86	0.00	259.40
										
MO	2158	2.11%								
Male	47.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
Fem	53.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
										
Total	2,731	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
MaleS	46.53%	24.44%	0.00%	22.09%	22.56%	0.47%		667.55	0.00	616.20
FemS	52.47%	27.56%	0.00%	24.91%	25.44%	0.53%		752.76	0.00	694.86
										
MT	640	3.87%								
Male	51.00%	57.00%	3.00%	38.00%	40.00%	2.00%		57.00%	3.00%	40.00%
Fem	49.00%	59.00%	3.00%	37.00%	38.00%	1.00%		59.00%	3.00%	38.00%
										
Total	450	57.98%	3.00%	37.51%	39.02%	1.51%		57.98%	3.00%	39.02%
MaleS	49.98%	29.07%	1.53%	19.38%	20.40%	1.02%		130.94	6.89	91.89
FemS	48.51%	28.91%	1.47%	18.13%	18.62%	0.49%		130.22	6.62	83.87
										
NE	785	3.50%								
Male	48.00%	62.00%	2.00%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		62.00%	2.00%	36.00%
Fem	52.00%	63.00%	1.00%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		63.00%	1.00%	36.00%
										
Total	777	62.52%	1.48%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		62.52%	1.48%	36.00%
MaleS	48.00%	29.76%	0.96%	17.28%	17.28%	0.00%		231.29	7.46	134.30
FemS	52.00%	32.76%	0.52%	18.72%	18.72%	0.00%		254.60	4.04	145.49
										
NV	2116	2.13%								
Male	48.00%	51.00%	3.00%	45.00%	46.00%	1.00%		51.00%	3.00%	46.00%
Fem	52.00%	45.00%	1.00%	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%		45.00%	1.00%	54.00%
										
Total	826	47.88%	1.96%	49.16%	50.16%	1.00%		47.88%	1.96%	50.16%
MaleS	47.52%	24.48%	1.44%	21.60%	22.08%	0.48%		202.18	11.89	182.36
FemS	51.48%	23.40%	0.52%	27.56%	28.08%	0.52%		193.26	4.29	231.91
										
NH	1849	2.28%								
Male	51.00%	47.00%	0.00%	52.00%	53.00%	1.00%		47.00%	0.00%	53.00%
Fem	49.00%	41.00%	2.00%	58.00%	57.00%	-1.00%		41.00%	2.00%	57.00%
										
Total	676	44.06%	0.98%	54.94%	54.96%	0.02%		44.06%	0.98%	54.96%
MaleS	50.49%	23.97%	0.00%	26.52%	27.03%	0.51%		162.09	0.00	182.78
FemS	49.49%	20.09%	0.98%	28.42%	27.93%	-0.49%		135.85	6.63	188.87
										
NM	1951	2.22%								
Male	46.00%	48.00%	2.00%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%		48.00%	2.00%	50.00%
Fem	54.00%	47.00%	1.00%	51.00%	52.00%	1.00%		47.00%	1.00%	52.00%
										
Total	756	47.46%	1.46%	50.08%	51.08%	1.00%		47.46%	1.46%	51.08%
MaleS	45.54%	22.08%	0.92%	22.54%	23.00%	0.46%		166.99	6.96	173.95
FemS	53.46%	25.38%	0.54%	27.54%	28.08%	0.54%		191.95	4.08	212.37
										
NJ	1520.00	2.51%								
Male	47.00%	49.00%	0.00%	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Fem	53.00%	44.00%	0.00%	56.00%	56.00%	0.00%		44.00%	0.00%	56.00%
										
Total	3,610	46.35%	0.00%	53.65%	53.65%	0.00%		46.35%	0.00%	53.65%
MaleS	47.00%	23.03%	0.00%	23.97%	23.97%	0.00%		831.37	0.00	865.30
FemS	53.00%	23.32%	0.00%	29.68%	29.68%	0.00%		841.83	0.00	1071.42
										
NY	1476	2.55%								
Male	47.00%	35%	0	65.00%	65.00%	0.00%		35.00%	0.00%	65.00%
Fem	53.00%	38%	0	62.00%	62.00%	0.00%		38.00%	0.00%	62.00%
										
Total	7,389	36.59%	0.00%	63.41%	63.41%	0.00%		36.59%	0.00%	63.41%
MaleS	47.00%	16.45%	0.00%	30.55%	30.55%	0.00%		1215.43	0.00	2257.22
FemS	53.00%	20.14%	0.00%	32.86%	32.86%	0.00%		1488.07	0.00	2427.90
										
NC	2099	2.14%								
Male	47.00%	55%	0	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		55.00%	0.00%	45.00%
Fem	53.00%	49%	0	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
										
Total	3,501	51.82%	0.00%	48.18%	48.18%	0.00%		51.82%	0.00%	48.18%
MaleS	47.00%	25.85%	0.00%	21.15%	21.15%	0.00%		904.92	0.00	740.39
FemS	53.00%	25.97%	0.00%	27.03%	27.03%	0.00%		909.12	0.00	946.23
										
ND	649	3.85%								
Male	49.00%	68.00%	2.00%	29.00%	30.00%	1.00%		68.00%	2.00%	30.00%
Fem	51.00%	61.00%	2.00%	36.00%	37.00%	1.00%		61.00%	2.00%	37.00%
										
Total	313	64.43%	2.00%	32.57%	33.57%	1.00%		64.43%	2.00%	33.57%
MaleS	48.51%	33.32%	0.98%	14.21%	14.70%	0.49%		104.23	3.07	45.99
FemS	50.49%	31.11%	1.02%	18.36%	18.87%	0.51%		97.32	3.19	59.03
										
OH	1963	2.21%								
Male	47.00%	49.00%	0	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Fem	53.00%	47.00%	0	53.00%	53.00%	0.00%		47.00%	0.00%	53.00%
										
Total	5,625	47.94%	0.00%	52.06%	52.06%	0.00%		47.94%	0.00%	52.06%
MaleS	47.00%	23.03%	0.00%	23.97%	23.97%	0.00%		1295.55	0.00	1348.42
FemS	53.00%	24.91%	0.00%	28.09%	28.09%	0.00%		1401.30	0.00	1580.19
										
OK	1539	2.50%								
Male	48.00%	66.00%	0	33.00%	34.00%	1.00%		66.00%	0.00%	34.00%
Fem	52.00%	64.00%	0	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		64.00%	0.00%	36.00%
										
Total	1,464	64.96%	0.00%	34.56%	35.04%	0.48%		64.96%	0.00%	35.04%
MaleS	47.52%	31.68%	0.00%	15.84%	16.32%	0.48%		463.72	0.00	238.89
FemS	52.00%	33.28%	0.00%	18.72%	18.72%	0.00%		487.14	0.00	274.02
										
OR	1054	3.02%								
Male	45.00%	55.00%	0	42.00%	45.00%	3.00%		55.00%	0.00%	45.00%
Fem	55.00%	42.00%	0	57.00%	58.00%	1.00%		42.00%	0.00%	58.00%
										
Total	1,828	47.85%	0.00%	50.25%	52.15%	1.90%		47.85%	0.00%	52.15%
MaleS	43.65%	24.75%	0.00%	18.90%	20.25%	1.35%		452.39	0.00	370.13
FemS	54.45%	23.10%	0.00%	31.35%	31.90%	0.55%		422.23	0.00	583.08
										
PA	1930	2.23%								
Male	47.00%	48.00%	0	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		48.00%	0.00%	52.00%
Fem	53.00%	43.00%	0	56.00%	57.00%	1.00%		43.00%	0.00%	57.00%
										
Total	5,766	45.35%	0.00%	54.12%	54.65%	0.53%		45.35%	0.00%	54.65%
MaleS	47.00%	22.56%	0.00%	24.44%	24.44%	0.00%		1300.76	0.00	1409.15
FemS	52.47%	22.79%	0.00%	29.68%	30.21%	0.53%		1314.02	0.00	1741.84
										
RI	809	3.45%								
Male	47.00%	37.00%	2.00%	60.00%	61.00%	1.00%		37.00%	2.00%	61.00%
Fem	53.00%	33.00%	2.00%	65.00%	65.00%	0.00%		33.00%	2.00%	65.00%
										
Total	436	34.88%	2.00%	62.65%	63.12%	0.47%		34.88%	2.00%	63.12%
MaleS	46.53%	17.39%	0.94%	28.20%	28.67%	0.47%		75.83	4.10	125.01
FemS	53.00%	17.49%	1.06%	34.45%	34.45%	0.00%		76.26	4.62	150.21
										
SC	1935	2.23%								
Male	43.00%	58.00%	1.00%	40.00%	41.00%	1.00%		58.00%	1.00%	41.00%
Fem	57.00%	50.00%	1.00%	49.00%	49.00%	0.00%		50.00%	1.00%	49.00%
										
Total	1,616	53.44%	1.00%	45.13%	45.56%	0.43%		53.44%	1.00%	45.56%
MaleS	42.57%	24.94%	0.43%	17.20%	17.63%	0.43%		402.93	6.95	284.83
FemS	57.00%	28.50%	0.57%	27.93%	27.93%	0.00%		460.45	9.21	451.24
										
SD	1495	2.53%								
Male	51.00%	61.00%	3.00%	35.00%	36.00%	1.00%		61.00%	3.00%	36.00%
Fem	49.00%	61.00%	1.00%	38.00%	38.00%	0.00%		61.00%	1.00%	38.00%
										
Total	388	61.00%	2.02%	36.47%	36.98%	0.51%		61.00%	2.02%	36.98%
MaleS	50.49%	31.11%	1.53%	17.85%	18.36%	0.51%		120.77	5.94	71.28
FemS	49.00%	29.89%	0.49%	18.62%	18.62%	0.00%		116.04	1.90	72.29
										
TN	1774	2.33%								
Male	48.00%	58.00%	2.00%	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		58.00%	2.00%	40.00%
Fem	52.00%	58.00%	0.00%	42.00%	42.00%	0.00%		58.00%	0.00%	42.00%
										
Total	2,437	58.00%	0.96%	40.56%	41.04%	0.48%		58.00%	0.96%	41.04%
MaleS	47.52%	27.84%	0.96%	18.72%	19.20%	0.48%		678.55	23.40	467.96
FemS	52.00%	30.16%	0.00%	21.84%	21.84%	0.00%		735.09	0.00	532.31
										
TX	1671	2.40%								
Male	46.00%	59.00%	0	39.00%	41.00%	2.00%		59.00%	0.00%	41.00%
Fem	54.00%	65.00%	0	34.00%	35.00%	1.00%		65.00%	0.00%	35.00%
										
Total	7,410	62.24%	0.00%	36.30%	37.76%	1.46%		62.24%	0.00%	37.76%
MaleS	45.08%	27.14%	0.00%	17.94%	18.86%	0.92%		2011.13	0.00	1397.56
FemS	53.46%	35.10%	0.00%	18.36%	18.90%	0.54%		2600.98	0.00	1400.53
										
UT	798	3.47%								
Male	46.00%	67.00%	3.00%	28.00%	30.00%	2.00%		67.00%	3.00%	30.00%
Fem	54.00%	69.00%	1.00%	30.00%	30.00%	0.00%		69.00%	1.00%	30.00%
										
Total	927	68.08%	1.92%	29.08%	30.00%	0.92%		68.08%	1.92%	30.00%
MaleS	45.08%	30.82%	1.38%	12.88%	13.80%	0.92%		285.55	12.79	127.86
FemS	54.00%	37.26%	0.54%	16.20%	16.20%	0.00%		345.21	5.00	150.09
										
VT	685	3.74%								
Male	45.00%	36.00%	2.00%	62.00%	62.00%	0.00%		36.00%	2.00%	62.00%
Fem	55.00%	31.00%	3.00%	65.00%	66.00%	1.00%		31.00%	3.00%	66.00%
										
Total	311	33.25%	2.55%	63.65%	64.20%	0.55%		33.25%	2.55%	64.20%
MaleS	45.00%	16.20%	0.90%	27.90%	27.90%	0.00%		50.36	2.80	86.73
FemS	54.45%	17.05%	1.65%	35.75%	36.30%	0.55%		53.00	5.13	112.84
										
VA	1432	2.59%								
Male	47.00%	53%	0	47.00%	47.00%	0.00%		53.00%	0.00%	47.00%
Fem	53.00%	48%	0	52.00%	66.00%	14.00%		48.00%	0.00%	66.00%
										
Total	3,193	50.35%	0.00%	49.65%	57.07%	7.42%		50.35%	0.00%	57.07%
MaleS	47.00%	24.91%	0.00%	22.09%	22.09%	0.00%		795.35	0.00	705.31
FemS	53.00%	25.44%	0.00%	27.56%	34.98%	7.42%		812.27	0.00	1116.87
										
WA	2123	2.13%								
Male	43.00%	48.00%	1.00%	49.00%	51.00%	2.00%		48.00%	1.00%	51.00%
Fem	57.00%	41.00%	1.00%	58.00%	58.00%	0.00%		41.00%	1.00%	58.00%
										
Total	2,857	44.01%	1.00%	54.13%	54.99%	0.86%		44.01%	1.00%	54.99%
MaleS	42.14%	20.64%	0.43%	21.07%	21.93%	0.86%		589.73	12.29	626.59
FemS	57.00%	23.37%	0.57%	33.06%	33.06%	0.00%		667.73	16.29	944.60
										
WV	1722	2.36%								
Male	47.00%	54.00%	1.00%	44.00%	45.00%	1.00%		54.00%	1.00%	45.00%
Fem	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		54.00%	1.00%	45.00%
										
Total	756	54.00%	1.00%	44.53%	45.00%	0.47%		54.00%	1.00%	45.00%
MaleS	46.53%	25.38%	0.47%	20.68%	21.15%	0.47%		191.84	3.55	159.87
FemS	53.00%	28.62%	0.53%	23.85%	23.85%	0.00%		216.33	4.01	180.28
										
WI	2223	2.08%								
Male	47.00%	52.00%	2.00%	45.00%	46.00%	1.00%		52.00%	2.00%	46.00%
Fem	53.00%	46.00%	1.00%	53.00%	53.00%	0.00%		46.00%	1.00%	53.00%
										
Total	2,993	48.82%	1.47%	49.24%	49.71%	0.47%		48.82%	1.47%	49.71%
MaleS	46.53%	24.44%	0.94%	21.15%	21.62%	0.47%		731.52	28.14	647.12
FemS	53.00%	24.38%	0.53%	28.09%	28.09%	0.00%		729.73	15.86	840.77
										
WY	684	3.75%								
Male	51.00%	67.00%	3.00%	28.00%	30.00%	2.00%		67.00%	3.00%	30.00%
Fem	49.00%	64.00%	1.00%	34.00%	35.00%	1.00%		64.00%	1.00%	35.00%
										
Total	243	65.53%	2.02%	30.94%	32.45%	1.51%		65.53%	2.02%	32.45%
MaleS	49.98%	34.17%	1.53%	14.28%	15.30%	1.02%		83.02	3.72	37.17
FemS	48.51%	31.36%	0.49%	16.66%	17.15%	0.49%		76.19	1.19	41.67

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...

These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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13 replies to this thread:

The Gender vote: 12:22am Nat. Exit Poll vs. State exits (so close it's scary) ,

TruthIsAll, Tue Sep-27-05 04:58 AM

#1: Thank you for all the work and you even anticipated, davidgmills, Sep 26th 2005

#2: What I meant, davidgmills, Sep 26th 2005

#12: Another data adjustment (NYS gender vote est. was fixed),

TruthIsAll, Oct 02nd 2005

#13: Still another- awfully sorry but it was too late to edit 10/2 @ 8:52,

TruthIsAll, Oct 02nd 2005

#3: Great work TIA., Username, Sep 26th 2005

#4: The lawyer's dream proof, davidgmills, Sep 26th 2005

#5: Here is an updated summary analysis to fix data typos,

TruthIsAll, Sep 26th 2005

#8: Nitpicking again, davidgmills, Sep 27th 2005

#9: See post # 7. No, you are not nitpicking. The reason I show two cases is...,

TruthIsAll, Sep 27th 2005

#10: OK just checking, davidgmills, Sep 27th 2005

#6: The Truth hurts!,

autorank, Sep 27th 2005

#7: Demographic Table Summary Comparison,

TruthIsAll, Sep 27th 2005

#11: Truth is all, thank you for doing it once again!, All_The_States, Oct 01st 2005

Reply #1: Thank you for all the work and you even anticipated

davidgmills

Member since Sep 15th 2005

2668 posts

Mon Sep-26-05 12:48 PM
In response to Original Post

Edited by davidgmills on Mon Sep-26-05 12:56 PM

my next question -- MOE of 73,000.  I figured it would be very low.

Is 0.37% clustered or not, and if not, what is a reasonable factor for
clustering?

One suggestion.  Put in the census gender split so we don't have to look for it
elsewhere.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

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Reply #2: What I meant

davidgmills

Member since Sep 15th 2005

2668 posts

Mon Sep-26-05 02:28 PM
In response to Reply #1

"The 53.65/46.35 gender split matches the census survey of 60,000
voters" 

which was 53.51/46.49.

Based on what you had done elsewhere before.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

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Reply #12: Another data adjustment (NYS gender vote est. was fixed)

TruthIsAll

Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Sun Oct-02-05 12:58 PM
In response to Reply #1

NY estimated since the numbers are NA, as stated earlier. The gender breakouts
were fixed to match the totals. Since NY is a big state, the effect on the
national gender percentages is significant. 

		STATE EXIT POLL ANALYSIS - GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC								
		Nov. 3, 12:22am, 73,000 respondents								


Case I: No adjustment to Horizontal Vote Discrepancy (see below)										
										
		Mix	Votes	Bush	Nader	Kerry				
	Male	46.35%	55.86	52.01%	0.54%	48.49%				
	Female	53.65%	64.65	47.38%	0.29%	52.33%				
										
	Total	100%		49.52%	0.40%	50.55%				
	Votes		120.51	59.68	0.49	60.92				
										
										
										
Case II: 	Horizontal Discrepancy added to Kerry percentage to equal
100%									
										
		Mix	Votes	Bush	Nader	Kerry				
	Male	46.43%	56.50	51.41%	0.53%	49.08%				
	Female	53.57%	65.18	47.00%	0.29%	52.72%				
										
	Total	100%		49.05%	0.40%	51.03%				
	Votes		121.68	59.68	0.49	62.09				
										
										
										
		NATIONAL EXIT POLL								
		Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents								
		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader					
	Male	46%	52%	47%	1%					
	Female	54%	45%	54%	1%					
	Total		48.22%	50.78%	1.00%					
	Votes	122.27	58.96	62.09	1.22					
										
										
										
										
										
		BUSH	NADER	KERRY	KERRY	Diff		BUSH	NADER	KERRY
										
	Poll	MoE		 <100%	Adj 100%			< Horiz. Total < 100%		
AL	730	3.63%								
Male	46.00%	64.00%	0.00%	34.00%	36.00%	2.00%		64.00%	0.00%	34.00%
Fem	54.00%	53.00%	1.00%	46.00%	46.00%	0.00%		53.00%	1.00%	46.00%
Total	1,883	58.06%	0.54%	40.48%	41.40%	0.92%		58.06%	0.54%	40.48%
MaleS	45.08%	29.44%	0.00%	15.64%	16.56%	0.92%		554.21	0.00	294.43
FemS	54.00%	28.62%	0.54%	24.84%	24.84%	0.00%		538.78	10.17	467.62
										
AK	910	3.25%								
Male	48.00%	63.00%	4.00%	32.00%	33.00%	1.00%		63.00%	4.00%	32.00%
Fem	52.00%	53.00%	2.00%	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		53.00%	2.00%	45.00%
Total	312	57.80%	2.96%	38.76%	39.24%	0.48%		57.80%	2.96%	38.76%
MaleS	47.52%	30.24%	1.92%	15.36%	15.84%	0.48%		94.29	5.99	47.89
FemS	52.00%	27.56%	1.04%	23.40%	23.40%	0.00%		85.93	3.24	72.96
										
AZ	1859	2.27%								
Male	47.00%	56.00%	0.00%	43.00%	44.00%	1.00%		56.00%	0.00%	43.00%
Fem	53.00%	50.00%	0.00%	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%		50.00%	0.00%	50.00%
Total	2,013	52.82%	0.00%	46.71%	47.18%	0.47%		52.82%	0.00%	46.71%
MaleS	46.53%	26.32%	0.00%	20.21%	20.68%	0.47%		489.29	0.00	375.70
FemS	53.00%	26.50%	0.00%	26.50%	26.50%	0.00%		492.64	0.00	492.64
										
AR	1402	2.62%								
Male	43.00%	58.00%	1.00%	41.00%	41.00%	0.00%		58.00%	1.00%	41.00%
Fem	57.00%	49.00%	0.00%	50.00%	51.00%	1.00%		49.00%	0.00%	50.00%
Total	1,056	52.87%	0.43%	46.13%	46.70%	0.57%		52.87%	0.43%	46.13%
MaleS	43.00%	24.94%	0.43%	17.63%	17.63%	0.00%		263.24	4.54	186.09
FemS	56.43%	27.93%	0.00%	28.50%	29.07%	0.57%		294.80	0.00	300.82
										
CA	919	3.23%								
Male	48.00%	46.00%	0.00%	51.00%	54.00%	3.00%		46.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Fem	52.00%	41.00%	0.00%	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		41.00%	0.00%	58.00%
Total	12,392	43.40%	0.00%	54.64%	56.60%	1.96%		43.40%	0.00%	54.64%
MaleS	46.56%	22.08%	0.00%	24.48%	25.92%	1.44%		2736.18	0.00	3033.59
FemS	51.48%	21.32%	0.00%	30.16%	30.68%	0.52%		2642.00	0.00	3737.46
										
CO	2515	1.95%								
Male	47.00%	51.00%	1.00%	46.00%	48.00%	2.00%		51.00%	1.00%	46.00%
Fem	53.00%	49.00%	0.00%	50.00%	51.00%	1.00%		49.00%	0.00%	50.00%
Total	2,128	49.94%	0.47%	48.12%	49.59%	1.47%		49.94%	0.47%	48.12%
MaleS	46.06%	23.97%	0.47%	21.62%	22.56%	0.94%		509.97	10.00	459.97
FemS	52.47%	25.97%	0.00%	26.50%	27.03%	0.53%		552.52	0.00	563.79
										
CT	872	3.32%								
Male	47.00%	42.00%	2.00%	55.00%	56.00%	1.00%		42.00%	2.00%	55.00%
Fem	53.00%	40.00%	1.00%	60.00%	59.00%	-1.00%		40.00%	1.00%	60.00%
Total	1,579	40.94%	1.47%	57.65%	57.59%	-0.06%		40.94%	1.47%	57.65%
MaleS	46.53%	19.74%	0.94%	25.85%	26.32%	0.47%		311.65	14.84	408.11
FemS	53.53%	21.20%	0.53%	31.80%	31.27%	-0.53%		334.70	8.37	502.04
										
DE	770	3.53%								
Male	43.00%	47.00%	1.00%	51.00%	52.00%	1.00%		47.00%	1.00%	51.00%
Fem	57.00%	36.00%	1.00%	62.00%	63.00%	1.00%		36.00%	1.00%	62.00%
Total	375	40.73%	1.00%	57.27%	58.27%	1.00%		40.73%	1.00%	57.27%
MaleS	42.57%	20.21%	0.43%	21.93%	22.36%	0.43%		75.81	1.61	82.26
FemS	56.43%	20.52%	0.57%	35.34%	35.91%	0.57%		76.97	2.14	132.56
										
DC	795	3.48%								
Male	44.00%	11.00%	1.00%	87.00%	88.00%	1.00%		11.00%	1.00%	87.00%
Fem	56.00%	8.00%	1.00%	92.00%	91.00%	-1.00%		8.00%	1.00%	92.00%
Total	227	9.32%	1.00%	89.80%	89.68%	-0.12%		9.32%	1.00%	89.80%
MaleS	43.56%	4.84%	0.44%	38.28%	38.72%	0.44%		10.98	1.00	86.88
FemS	56.56%	4.48%	0.56%	51.52%	50.96%	-0.56%		10.17	1.27	116.92
										
FL	2846	1.84%								
Male	46.00%	52.00%	1.00%	47.00%	47.00%	0.00%		52.00%	1.00%	47.00%
Fem	54.00%	48.00%	0.00%	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		48.00%	0.00%	52.00%
Total	7,604	49.84%	0.46%	49.70%	49.70%	0.00%		49.84%	0.46%	49.70%
MaleS	46.00%	23.92%	0.46%	21.62%	21.62%	0.00%		1818.78	34.98	1643.89
FemS	54.00%	25.92%	0.00%	28.08%	28.08%	0.00%		1970.85	0.00	2135.08
										
GA	1536	2.50%								
Male	44.00%	60.00%	0	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		60.00%	0.00%	39.00%
Fem	56.00%	54.00%	0	46.00%	46.00%	0.00%		54.00%	0.00%	46.00%
Total	3,299	56.64%	0.00%	42.92%	43.36%	0.44%		56.64%	0.00%	42.92%
MaleS	43.56%	26.40%	0.00%	17.16%	17.60%	0.44%		870.88	0.00	566.07
FemS	56.00%	30.24%	0.00%	25.76%	25.76%	0.00%		997.55	0.00	849.77
										
HI	499	4.39%								
Male	46.00%	51.00%	0	49.00%	49.00%	0.00%		51.00%	0.00%	49.00%
Fem	54.00%	43.00%	0	57.00%	57.00%	0.00%		43.00%	0.00%	57.00%
Total	429	46.68%	0.00%	53.32%	53.32%	0.00%		46.68%	0.00%	53.32%
MaleS	46.00%	23.46%	0.00%	22.54%	22.54%	0.00%		100.65	0.00	96.70
FemS	54.00%	23.22%	0.00%	30.78%	30.78%	0.00%		99.62	0.00	132.05
										
ID	539	4.22%								
Male	45.00%	69.00%	0	29.00%	31.00%	2.00%		69.00%	0.00%	29.00%
Fem	55.00%	63.00%	0	36.00%	37.00%	1.00%		63.00%	0.00%	36.00%
Total	598	65.70%	0.00%	32.85%	34.30%	1.45%		65.70%	0.00%	32.85%
MaleS	44.10%	31.05%	0.00%	13.05%	13.95%	0.90%		185.80	0.00	78.09
FemS	54.45%	34.65%	0.00%	19.80%	20.35%	0.55%		207.34	0.00	118.48
										
IL	1392	2.63%								
Male	46.00%	44.00%	0	55.00%	56.00%	1.00%		44.00%	0.00%	55.00%
Fem	54.00%	41.00%	0	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		41.00%	0.00%	58.00%
Total	5,275	42.38%	0.00%	56.62%	57.62%	1.00%		42.38%	0.00%	56.62%
MaleS	45.54%	20.24%	0.00%	25.30%	25.76%	0.46%		1067.72	0.00	1334.65
FemS	53.46%	22.14%	0.00%	31.32%	31.86%	0.54%		1167.95	0.00	1652.22
										
IN	926	4.39%								
Male	48.00%	60.00%	0.00%	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		60.00%	0.00%	39.00%
Fem	52.00%	57.00%	0.00%	42.00%	43.00%	1.00%		57.00%	0.00%	42.00%
Total	2,468	58.44%	0.00%	40.56%	41.56%	1.00%		58.44%	0.00%	40.56%
MaleS	47.52%	28.80%	0.00%	18.72%	19.20%	0.48%		710.77	0.00	462.00
FemS	51.48%	29.64%	0.00%	21.84%	22.36%	0.52%		731.50	0.00	539.00
										
IA	2502	2.00%								
Male	46.00%	50.00%	2.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		50.00%	2.00%	47.00%
Fem	54.00%	47.00%	1.00%	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		47.00%	1.00%	52.00%
Total	1,505	48.38%	1.46%	49.70%	50.16%	0.46%		48.38%	1.46%	49.70%
MaleS	45.54%	23.00%	0.92%	21.62%	22.08%	0.46%		346.21	13.85	325.44
FemS	54.00%	25.38%	0.54%	28.08%	28.08%	0.00%		382.04	8.13	422.68
										
KS	654	3.83%								
Male	45.00%	65.00%	1.00%	33.00%	34.00%	1.00%		65.00%	1.00%	33.00%
Fem	55.00%	64.00%	1.00%	35.00%	35.00%	0.00%		64.00%	1.00%	35.00%
Total	1,188	64.45%	1.00%	34.10%	34.55%	0.45%		64.45%	1.00%	34.10%
MaleS	44.55%	29.25%	0.45%	14.85%	15.30%	0.45%		347.41	5.34	176.38
FemS	55.00%	35.20%	0.55%	19.25%	19.25%	0.00%		418.09	6.53	228.64
										
KY	1034	3.05%								
Male	46.00%	60.00%	1.00%	38.00%	39.00%	1.00%		60.00%	1.00%	38.00%
Fem	54.00%	57.00%	0.00%	42.00%	43.00%	1.00%		57.00%	0.00%	42.00%
Total	1,796	58.38%	0.46%	40.16%	41.16%	1.00%		58.38%	0.46%	40.16%
MaleS	45.54%	27.60%	0.46%	17.48%	17.94%	0.46%		495.66	8.26	313.92
FemS	53.46%	30.78%	0.00%	22.68%	23.22%	0.54%		552.77	0.00	407.30
										
LA	1669	2.40%								
Male	45.00%	58.00%	1.00%	40.00%	41.00%	1.00%		58.00%	1.00%	40.00%
Fem	55.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	47.00%
Total	1,939	54.70%	0.45%	43.85%	44.85%	1.00%		54.70%	0.45%	43.85%
MaleS	44.55%	26.10%	0.45%	18.00%	18.45%	0.45%		506.02	8.72	348.98
FemS	54.45%	28.60%	0.00%	25.85%	26.40%	0.55%		554.49	0.00	501.17
										
ME	1968	2.21%								
Male	47.00%	48.00%	2.00%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%		48.00%	2.00%	49.00%
Fem	53.00%	41.00%	1.00%	58.00%	58.00%	0.00%		41.00%	1.00%	58.00%
Total	741	44.29%	1.47%	53.77%	54.24%	0.47%		44.29%	1.47%	53.77%
MaleS	46.53%	22.56%	0.94%	23.03%	23.50%	0.47%		167.11	6.96	170.59
FemS	53.00%	21.73%	0.53%	30.74%	30.74%	0.00%		160.96	3.93	227.71
										
MD	1000	3.10%								
Male	46.00%	45.00%	0.00%	54.00%	55.00%	1.00%		45.00%	0.00%	54.00%
Fem	54.00%	40.00%	1.00%	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		40.00%	1.00%	58.00%
Total	2,384	42.30%	0.54%	56.16%	57.16%	1.00%		42.30%	0.54%	56.16%
MaleS	45.54%	20.70%	0.00%	24.84%	25.30%	0.46%		493.53	0.00	592.23
FemS	53.46%	21.60%	0.54%	31.32%	31.86%	0.54%		514.99	12.87	746.73
										
MA	869	3.32%								
Male	48.00%	36.00%	0.00%	61.00%	64.00%	3.00%		36.00%	0.00%	61.00%
Fem	52.00%	30.00%	0.00%	69.00%	70.00%	1.00%		30.00%	0.00%	69.00%
Total	2,905	32.88%	0.00%	65.16%	67.12%	1.96%		32.88%	0.00%	65.16%
MaleS	46.56%	17.28%	0.00%	29.28%	30.72%	1.44%		502.05	0.00	850.69
FemS	51.48%	15.60%	0.00%	35.88%	36.40%	0.52%		453.24	0.00	1042.44
										
MI	2452	1.98%								
Male	50.00%	48.00%	1.00%	49.00%	51.00%	2.00%		48.00%	1.00%	49.00%
Fem	50.00%	45.00%	1.00%	54.00%	54.00%	0.00%		45.00%	1.00%	54.00%
Total	4,838	46.50%	1.00%	51.50%	52.50%	1.00%		46.50%	1.00%	51.50%
MaleS	49.00%	24.00%	0.50%	24.50%	25.50%	1.00%		1161.08	24.19	1185.27
FemS	50.00%	22.50%	0.50%	27.00%	27.00%	0.00%		1088.51	24.19	1306.21
										
MN	2178	2.10%								
Male	48.00%	45.00%	1.00%	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%		45.00%	1.00%	53.00%
Fem	52.00%	44.00%	1.00%	54.00%	55.00%	1.00%		44.00%	1.00%	54.00%
Total	2,823	44.48%	1.00%	53.52%	54.52%	1.00%		44.48%	1.00%	53.52%
MaleS	47.52%	21.60%	0.48%	25.44%	25.92%	0.48%		609.66	13.55	718.05
FemS	51.48%	22.88%	0.52%	28.08%	28.60%	0.52%		645.79	14.68	792.56
										
MS	798	3.47%								
Male	47.00%	56.00%	1.00%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		56.00%	1.00%	43.00%
Fem	53.00%	57.00%	0.00%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		57.00%	0.00%	43.00%
Total	1,138	56.53%	0.47%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		56.53%	0.47%	43.00%
MaleS	47.00%	26.32%	0.47%	20.21%	20.21%	0.00%		299.58	5.35	230.04
FemS	53.00%	30.21%	0.00%	22.79%	22.79%	0.00%		343.86	0.00	259.40
										
MO	2158	2.11%								
Male	47.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	47.00%
Fem	53.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	47.00%
Total	2,731	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	47.00%
MaleS	46.53%	24.44%	0.00%	22.09%	22.56%	0.47%		667.55	0.00	603.36
FemS	52.47%	27.56%	0.00%	24.91%	25.44%	0.53%		752.76	0.00	680.38
										
MT	640	3.87%								
Male	51.00%	57.00%	3.00%	38.00%	40.00%	2.00%		57.00%	3.00%	38.00%
Fem	49.00%	59.00%	3.00%	37.00%	38.00%	1.00%		59.00%	3.00%	37.00%
Total	450	57.98%	3.00%	37.51%	39.02%	1.51%		57.98%	3.00%	37.51%
MaleS	49.98%	29.07%	1.53%	19.38%	20.40%	1.02%		130.94	6.89	87.29
FemS	48.51%	28.91%	1.47%	18.13%	18.62%	0.49%		130.22	6.62	81.66
										
NE	785	3.50%								
Male	48.00%	62.00%	2.00%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		62.00%	2.00%	36.00%
Fem	52.00%	63.00%	1.00%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		63.00%	1.00%	36.00%
Total	777	62.52%	1.48%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		62.52%	1.48%	36.00%
MaleS	48.00%	29.76%	0.96%	17.28%	17.28%	0.00%		231.29	7.46	134.30
FemS	52.00%	32.76%	0.52%	18.72%	18.72%	0.00%		254.60	4.04	145.49
										
NV	2116	2.13%								
Male	48.00%	51.00%	3.00%	45.00%	46.00%	1.00%		51.00%	3.00%	45.00%
Fem	52.00%	45.00%	1.00%	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%		45.00%	1.00%	53.00%
Total	826	47.88%	1.96%	49.16%	50.16%	1.00%		47.88%	1.96%	49.16%
MaleS	47.52%	24.48%	1.44%	21.60%	22.08%	0.48%		202.18	11.89	178.39
FemS	51.48%	23.40%	0.52%	27.56%	28.08%	0.52%		193.26	4.29	227.62
										
NH	1849	2.28%								
Male	51.00%	47.00%	0.00%	52.00%	53.00%	1.00%		47.00%	0.00%	52.00%
Fem	49.00%	41.00%	2.00%	58.00%	57.00%	-1.00%		41.00%	2.00%	58.00%
Total	676	44.06%	0.98%	54.94%	54.96%	0.02%		44.06%	0.98%	54.94%
MaleS	50.49%	23.97%	0.00%	26.52%	27.03%	0.51%		162.09	0.00	179.34
FemS	49.49%	20.09%	0.98%	28.42%	27.93%	-0.49%		135.85	6.63	192.18
										
NM	1951	2.22%								
Male	46.00%	48.00%	2.00%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%		48.00%	2.00%	49.00%
Fem	54.00%	47.00%	1.00%	51.00%	52.00%	1.00%		47.00%	1.00%	51.00%
Total	756	47.46%	1.46%	50.08%	51.08%	1.00%		47.46%	1.46%	50.08%
MaleS	45.54%	22.08%	0.92%	22.54%	23.00%	0.46%		166.99	6.96	170.47
FemS	53.46%	25.38%	0.54%	27.54%	28.08%	0.54%		191.95	4.08	208.29
										
NJ	1520.00	2.51%								
Male	47.00%	49.00%	0.00%	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Fem	53.00%	44.00%	0.00%	56.00%	56.00%	0.00%		44.00%	0.00%	56.00%
Total	3,610	46.35%	0.00%	53.65%	53.65%	0.00%		46.35%	0.00%	53.65%
MaleS	47.00%	23.03%	0.00%	23.97%	23.97%	0.00%		831.37	0.00	865.30
FemS	53.00%	23.32%	0.00%	29.68%	29.68%	0.00%		841.83	0.00	1071.42
										
NY	1476	2.55%								
Male	47.00%	40%	0	60.00%	60.00%	0.00%		40.00%	0.00%	60.00%
Fem	53.00%	33%	0	67.00%	67.00%	0.00%		33.00%	0.00%	67.00%
Total	7,389	36.29%	0.00%	63.71%	63.71%	0.00%		36.29%	0.00%	63.71%
MaleS	47.00%	18.80%	0.00%	28.20%	28.20%	0.00%		1389.06	0.00	2083.59
FemS	53.00%	17.49%	0.00%	35.51%	35.51%	0.00%		1292.27	0.00	2623.70
										
NC	2099	2.14%								
Male	47.00%	55%	0	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		55.00%	0.00%	45.00%
Fem	53.00%	49%	0	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Total	3,501	51.82%	0.00%	48.18%	48.18%	0.00%		51.82%	0.00%	48.18%
MaleS	47.00%	25.85%	0.00%	21.15%	21.15%	0.00%		904.92	0.00	740.39
FemS	53.00%	25.97%	0.00%	27.03%	27.03%	0.00%		909.12	0.00	946.23
										
ND	649	3.85%								
Male	49.00%	68.00%	2.00%	29.00%	30.00%	1.00%		68.00%	2.00%	29.00%
Fem	51.00%	61.00%	2.00%	36.00%	37.00%	1.00%		61.00%	2.00%	36.00%
Total	313	64.43%	2.00%	32.57%	33.57%	1.00%		64.43%	2.00%	32.57%
MaleS	48.51%	33.32%	0.98%	14.21%	14.70%	0.49%		104.23	3.07	44.45
FemS	50.49%	31.11%	1.02%	18.36%	18.87%	0.51%		97.32	3.19	57.43
										
OH	1963	2.21%								
Male	47.00%	49.00%	0	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Fem	53.00%	47.00%	0	53.00%	53.00%	0.00%		47.00%	0.00%	53.00%
Total	5,625	47.94%	0.00%	52.06%	52.06%	0.00%		47.94%	0.00%	52.06%
MaleS	47.00%	23.03%	0.00%	23.97%	23.97%	0.00%		1295.55	0.00	1348.42
FemS	53.00%	24.91%	0.00%	28.09%	28.09%	0.00%		1401.30	0.00	1580.19
										
OK	1539	2.50%								
Male	48.00%	66.00%	0	33.00%	34.00%	1.00%		66.00%	0.00%	33.00%
Fem	52.00%	64.00%	0	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		64.00%	0.00%	36.00%
Total	1,464	64.96%	0.00%	34.56%	35.04%	0.48%		64.96%	0.00%	34.56%
MaleS	47.52%	31.68%	0.00%	15.84%	16.32%	0.48%		463.72	0.00	231.86
FemS	52.00%	33.28%	0.00%	18.72%	18.72%	0.00%		487.14	0.00	274.02
										
OR	1054	3.02%								
Male	45.00%	55.00%	0	42.00%	45.00%	3.00%		55.00%	0.00%	42.00%
Fem	55.00%	42.00%	0	57.00%	58.00%	1.00%		42.00%	0.00%	57.00%
Total	1,828	47.85%	0.00%	50.25%	52.15%	1.90%		47.85%	0.00%	50.25%
MaleS	43.65%	24.75%	0.00%	18.90%	20.25%	1.35%		452.39	0.00	345.46
FemS	54.45%	23.10%	0.00%	31.35%	31.90%	0.55%		422.23	0.00	573.02
										
PA	1930	2.23%								
Male	47.00%	48.00%	0	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		48.00%	0.00%	52.00%
Fem	53.00%	43.00%	0	56.00%	57.00%	1.00%		43.00%	0.00%	56.00%
Total	5,766	45.35%	0.00%	54.12%	54.65%	0.53%		45.35%	0.00%	54.12%
MaleS	47.00%	22.56%	0.00%	24.44%	24.44%	0.00%		1300.76	0.00	1409.15
FemS	52.47%	22.79%	0.00%	29.68%	30.21%	0.53%		1314.02	0.00	1711.28
										
RI	809	3.45%								
Male	47.00%	37.00%	2.00%	60.00%	61.00%	1.00%		37.00%	2.00%	60.00%
Fem	53.00%	33.00%	2.00%	65.00%	65.00%	0.00%		33.00%	2.00%	65.00%
Total	436	34.88%	2.00%	62.65%	63.12%	0.47%		34.88%	2.00%	62.65%
MaleS	46.53%	17.39%	0.94%	28.20%	28.67%	0.47%		75.83	4.10	122.96
FemS	53.00%	17.49%	1.06%	34.45%	34.45%	0.00%		76.26	4.62	150.21
										
SC	1935	2.23%								
Male	43.00%	58.00%	1.00%	40.00%	41.00%	1.00%		58.00%	1.00%	40.00%
Fem	57.00%	50.00%	1.00%	49.00%	49.00%	0.00%		50.00%	1.00%	49.00%
Total	1,616	53.44%	1.00%	45.13%	45.56%	0.43%		53.44%	1.00%	45.13%
MaleS	42.57%	24.94%	0.43%	17.20%	17.63%	0.43%		402.93	6.95	277.88
FemS	57.00%	28.50%	0.57%	27.93%	27.93%	0.00%		460.45	9.21	451.24
										
SD	1495	2.53%								
Male	51.00%	61.00%	3.00%	35.00%	36.00%	1.00%		61.00%	3.00%	35.00%
Fem	49.00%	61.00%	1.00%	38.00%	38.00%	0.00%		61.00%	1.00%	38.00%
Total	388	61.00%	2.02%	36.47%	36.98%	0.51%		61.00%	2.02%	36.47%
MaleS	50.49%	31.11%	1.53%	17.85%	18.36%	0.51%		120.77	5.94	69.30
FemS	49.00%	29.89%	0.49%	18.62%	18.62%	0.00%		116.04	1.90	72.29
										
TN	1774	2.33%								
Male	48.00%	58.00%	2.00%	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		58.00%	2.00%	39.00%
Fem	52.00%	58.00%	0.00%	42.00%	42.00%	0.00%		58.00%	0.00%	42.00%
Total	2,437	58.00%	0.96%	40.56%	41.04%	0.48%		58.00%	0.96%	40.56%
MaleS	47.52%	27.84%	0.96%	18.72%	19.20%	0.48%		678.55	23.40	456.26
FemS	52.00%	30.16%	0.00%	21.84%	21.84%	0.00%		735.09	0.00	532.31
										
TX	1671	2.40%								
Male	46.00%	59.00%	0	39.00%	41.00%	2.00%		59.00%	0.00%	39.00%
Fem	54.00%	65.00%	0	34.00%	35.00%	1.00%		65.00%	0.00%	34.00%
Total	7,410	62.24%	0.00%	36.30%	37.76%	1.46%		62.24%	0.00%	36.30%
MaleS	45.08%	27.14%	0.00%	17.94%	18.86%	0.92%		2011.13	0.00	1329.39
FemS	53.46%	35.10%	0.00%	18.36%	18.90%	0.54%		2600.98	0.00	1360.51
										
UT	798	3.47%								
Male	46.00%	67.00%	3.00%	28.00%	30.00%	2.00%		67.00%	3.00%	28.00%
Fem	54.00%	69.00%	1.00%	30.00%	30.00%	0.00%		69.00%	1.00%	30.00%
Total	927	68.08%	1.92%	29.08%	30.00%	0.92%		68.08%	1.92%	29.08%
MaleS	45.08%	30.82%	1.38%	12.88%	13.80%	0.92%		285.55	12.79	119.33
FemS	54.00%	37.26%	0.54%	16.20%	16.20%	0.00%		345.21	5.00	150.09
										
VT	685	3.74%								
Male	45.00%	36.00%	2.00%	62.00%	62.00%	0.00%		36.00%	2.00%	62.00%
Fem	55.00%	31.00%	3.00%	65.00%	66.00%	1.00%		31.00%	3.00%	65.00%
Total	311	33.25%	2.55%	63.65%	64.20%	0.55%		33.25%	2.55%	63.65%
MaleS	45.00%	16.20%	0.90%	27.90%	27.90%	0.00%		50.36	2.80	86.73
FemS	54.45%	17.05%	1.65%	35.75%	36.30%	0.55%		53.00	5.13	111.13
										
VA	1432	2.59%								
Male	47.00%	53%	0	47.00%	47.00%	0.00%		53.00%	0.00%	47.00%
Fem	53.00%	48%	0	52.00%	66.00%	14.00%		48.00%	0.00%	52.00%
Total	3,193	50.35%	0.00%	49.65%	57.07%	7.42%		50.35%	0.00%	49.65%
MaleS	47.00%	24.91%	0.00%	22.09%	22.09%	0.00%		795.35	0.00	705.31
FemS	53.00%	25.44%	0.00%	27.56%	34.98%	7.42%		812.27	0.00	879.96
										
WA	2123	2.13%								
Male	43.00%	48.00%	1.00%	49.00%	51.00%	2.00%		48.00%	1.00%	49.00%
Fem	57.00%	41.00%	1.00%	58.00%	58.00%	0.00%		41.00%	1.00%	58.00%
Total	2,857	44.01%	1.00%	54.13%	54.99%	0.86%		44.01%	1.00%	54.13%
MaleS	42.14%	20.64%	0.43%	21.07%	21.93%	0.86%		589.73	12.29	602.02
FemS	57.00%	23.37%	0.57%	33.06%	33.06%	0.00%		667.73	16.29	944.60
										
WV	1722	2.36%								
Male	47.00%	54.00%	1.00%	44.00%	45.00%	1.00%		54.00%	1.00%	44.00%
Fem	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		54.00%	1.00%	45.00%
Total	756	54.00%	1.00%	44.53%	45.00%	0.47%		54.00%	1.00%	44.53%
MaleS	46.53%	25.38%	0.47%	20.68%	21.15%	0.47%		191.84	3.55	156.31
FemS	53.00%	28.62%	0.53%	23.85%	23.85%	0.00%		216.33	4.01	180.28
										
WI	2223	2.08%								
Male	47.00%	52.00%	2.00%	45.00%	46.00%	1.00%		52.00%	2.00%	45.00%
Fem	53.00%	46.00%	1.00%	53.00%	53.00%	0.00%		46.00%	1.00%	53.00%
Total	2,993	48.82%	1.47%	49.24%	49.71%	0.47%		48.82%	1.47%	49.24%
MaleS	46.53%	24.44%	0.94%	21.15%	21.62%	0.47%		731.52	28.14	633.05
FemS	53.00%	24.38%	0.53%	28.09%	28.09%	0.00%		729.73	15.86	840.77
										
WY	684	3.75%								
Male	51.00%	67.00%	3.00%	28.00%	30.00%	2.00%		67.00%	3.00%	28.00%
Fem	49.00%	64.00%	1.00%	34.00%	35.00%	1.00%		64.00%	1.00%	34.00%
Total	243	65.53%	2.02%	30.94%	32.45%	1.51%		65.53%	2.02%	30.94%
MaleS	49.98%	34.17%	1.53%	14.28%	15.30%	1.02%		83.02	3.72	34.69
FemS	48.51%	31.36%	0.49%	16.66%	17.15%	0.49%		76.19	1.19	40.48

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Reply #13: Still another- awfully sorry but it was too late to edit 10/2 @ 8:52

TruthIsAll

Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Sun Oct-02-05 04:52 PM
In response to Reply #12

Edited by TruthIsAll on Sun Oct-02-05 07:20 PM

STATE vs. NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS - GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC	

What happened in Texas? It was the only state in which the female Bush vote
(65-34) exceeded the male Bush vote (59-39).			

STATE POLLS							
Nov. 3, 12:22am, 73,000 respondents							
Case I: 
No adjustment to horizontal vote discrepancy 							
							
		Mix	Votes	Bush	Nader	Kerry	
	Male	46.60%	56.43	51.56%	0.53%	47.91%	
	Female	53.40%	64.65	47.38%	0.29%	52.33%	
							
	Total	100%		49.32%	0.40%	50.27%	
	Votes		121.08	59.72	0.49	60.87	
							
							
							
Case II:
Discrepancy added to Kerry percentage to equal 100%.
	
							
		Mix	Votes	Bush	Nader	Kerry	
	Male	46.78%	57.08	50.97%	0.52%	48.50%	
	Female	53.22%	64.94	47.17%	0.29%	52.54%	
							
	Total	100%		48.95%	0.40%	50.65%	
	Votes		122.02	59.72	0.49	61.81	
							
Case III:
Discrepancy split equally between Bush and Kerry						
							
		Mix	Votes	Bush	Nader	Kerry	
	Male	46.69%	56.75	51.26%	0.53%	48.21%	
	Female	53.31%	64.80	47.27%	0.29%	52.44%	
							
	Total	100.00%		49.14%	0.40%	50.46%	
	Votes		121.55	59.72	0.49	61.34	
							


______________________________________________________


	NATIONAL EXIT POLL						
	Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents						
		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		
	Male	46%	52%	47%	1%		
	Female	54%	45%	54%	1%		
	Total		48.22%	50.78%	1.00%		
	Votes	122.27	58.96	62.09	1.22

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Reply #3: Great work TIA.

Username

Member since Sep 08th 2005

1233 posts

Mon Sep-26-05 04:32 PM
In response to Original Post

As I've said, I'm no expert, but how hard is it to convince people that 3 of
every 100 surveyed weren't in drag? This is astounding accuracy. I'm a
believer!

one if by land, two if by sea..

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Reply #4: The lawyer's dream proof

davidgmills

Member since Sep 15th 2005

2668 posts

Mon Sep-26-05 05:03 PM
In response to Original Post

A jury could understand it.  Heck, even most judges could understand it.

And now the MoE's are rediculously low and the independent census data supports
the overal thesis and proof.

But the best thing this lawyer likes is that his expert is not subject to
innane, red herring, cross exam: no party ID, no who did you vote for in 2000?,
no death of Gore voters at a more rapid rate than Bush 2000 voters, etc. etc.
etc.  All these arguments are gone.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

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Reply #5: Here is an updated summary analysis to fix data typos

TruthIsAll

Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Mon Sep-26-05 07:27 PM
In response to Original Post

Edited by TruthIsAll on Mon Sep-26-05 10:32 PM

The state exit polls understated the third party vote by 0.60%. If 0.60% is  
subtracted from the Bush state totals, the state numbers will match the
national for Bush and Nader/Other. They already match for Kerry. 



		STATE EXIT POLL ANALYSIS - GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC						

		Nov. 3, 12:22am, 73,000 respondents						

Case I: Uses data as given; no adjustment to 100%.   								
								
		Mix	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Nader/Other		
	Male	46.60%	56.502	48.22%	51.26%	0.53%		
	Female	53.40%	64.735	52.03%	47.68%	0.29%		
								
	Total			50.25%	49.35%	0.40%		
	Votes	121.237	      60.922	59.828	0.487		
								
____________________________________________________________________								
								
Case II: Add adjustment to Kerry vote for sum to equal 100%.							
								
		Mix	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Nader/Other		
	Male	46.78%	57.147	48.80%	50.68%	0.52%		
	Female	53.22%	65.024	52.24%	47.47%	0.29%		
								
	Total			50.63%	48.97%	0.40%		
	Votes	122.171	      61.857	59.828	0.487		
								
____________________________________________________________________										

		NATIONAL EXIT POLL						
		Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents						
								
		Mix	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Nader/Other		
	Male	46%	56.199	47.00%	52.00%	1.00%		
	Female	54%	65.972	54.00%	45.00%	1.00%		
								
	Total			50.78%	48.22%	1.00%		
	Votes	122.171	      62.038	58.911	1.222	




		BUSH	NADER	KERRY	KERRY	Diff		BUSH	NADER	KERRY
										
	Poll	MoE		 <100%	Adj 100%		 Add. Diff to Kerry	
AL	730	3.63%								
Male	46.00%	64.00%	0.00%	34.00%	36.00%	2.00%		64.00%	0.00%	36.00%
Fem	54.00%	53.00%	1.00%	46.00%	46.00%	0.00%		53.00%	1.00%	46.00%
Total	1,883	58.06%	0.54%	40.48%	41.40%	0.92%		58.06%	0.54%	41.40%
										
MaleS			0.00%	15.64%	16.56%	0.92%		554.21	0.00	311.74
FemS			0.54%	24.84%	24.84%	0.00%		538.78	10.17	467.62
										
AK	910	3.25%								
Male	48.00%	63.00%	4.00%	32.00%	33.00%	1.00%		63.00%	4.00%	33.00%
Fem	52.00%	53.00%	2.00%	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		53.00%	2.00%	45.00%
Total	312	57.80%	2.96%	38.76%	39.24%	0.48%		57.80%	2.96%	39.24%
										
MaleS			1.92%	15.36%	15.84%	0.48%		94.29	5.99	49.39
FemS			1.04%	23.40%	23.40%	0.00%		85.93	3.24	72.96
										
AZ	1859	2.27%								
Male	47.00%	56.00%	0.00%	43.00%	44.00%	1.00%		56.00%	0.00%	44.00%
Fem	53.00%	50.00%	0.00%	50.00%	50.00%	0.00%		50.00%	0.00%	50.00%
Total	2,013	52.82%	0.00%	46.71%	47.18%	0.47%		52.82%	0.00%	47.18%
										
MaleS			0.00%	20.21%	20.68%	0.47%		529.71	0.00	416.20
FemS			0.00%	26.50%	26.50%	0.00%		533.34	0.00	533.34
										
AR	1402	2.62%								
Male	43.00%	58.00%	1.00%	41.00%	41.00%	0.00%		58.00%	1.00%	41.00%
Fem	57.00%	49.00%	0.00%	50.00%	51.00%	1.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Total	1,056	52.87%	0.43%	46.13%	46.70%	0.57%		52.87%	0.43%	46.70%
										
MaleS			0.43%	17.63%	17.63%	0.00%		263.24	4.54	186.09
FemS			0.00%	28.50%	29.07%	0.57%		294.80	0.00	306.84
										
CA	919	3.23%								
Male	48.00%	46.00%	0.00%	51.00%	54.00%	3.00%		46.00%	0.00%	54.00%
Fem	52.00%	41.00%	0.00%	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		41.00%	0.00%	59.00%
Total	12,392	43.40%	0.00%	54.64%	56.60%	1.96%		43.40%	0.00%	56.60%
										
MaleS			0.00%	24.48%	25.92%	1.44%		2736.18	0.00	3212.03
FemS			0.00%	30.16%	30.68%	0.52%		2642.00	0.00	3801.90
										
CO	2515	1.95%								
Male	47.00%	51.00%	1.00%	46.00%	48.00%	2.00%		51.00%	1.00%	48.00%
Fem	53.00%	49.00%	0.00%	50.00%	51.00%	1.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Total	2,128	49.94%	0.47%	48.12%	49.59%	1.47%		49.94%	0.47%	49.59%
										
MaleS			0.47%	21.62%	22.56%	0.94%		509.97	10.00	479.97
FemS			0.00%	26.50%	27.03%	0.53%		552.52	0.00	575.07
										
CT	872	3.32%								
Male	47.00%	42.00%	2.00%	55.00%	56.00%	1.00%		42.00%	2.00%	56.00%
Fem	53.00%	40.00%	1.00%	60.00%	59.00%	-1.00%		40.00%	1.00%	59.00%
Total	1,579	40.94%	1.47%	57.65%	57.59%	-0.06%		40.94%	1.47%	57.59%
										
MaleS			0.94%	25.85%	26.32%	0.47%		311.65	14.84	415.53
FemS			0.53%	31.80%	31.27%	-0.53%		334.70	8.37	493.68
										
DE	770	3.53%								
Male	43.00%	47.00%	1.00%	51.00%	52.00%	1.00%		47.00%	1.00%	52.00%
Fem	57.00%	36.00%	1.00%	62.00%	63.00%	1.00%		36.00%	1.00%	63.00%
Total	375	40.73%	1.00%	57.27%	58.27%	1.00%		40.73%	1.00%	58.27%
										
MaleS			0.43%	21.93%	22.36%	0.43%		75.81	1.61	83.87
FemS			0.57%	35.34%	35.91%	0.57%		76.97	2.14	134.69
										
DC	795	3.48%								
Male	44.00%	11.00%	1.00%	87.00%	88.00%	1.00%		11.00%	1.00%	88.00%
Fem	56.00%	8.00%	1.00%	92.00%	91.00%	-1.00%		8.00%	1.00%	91.00%
Total	227	9.32%	1.00%	89.80%	89.68%	-0.12%		9.32%	1.00%	89.68%
										
MaleS			0.44%	38.28%	38.72%	0.44%		10.98	1.00	87.88
FemS			0.56%	51.52%	50.96%	-0.56%		10.17	1.27	115.65
										
FL	2846	1.84%								
Male	46.00%	52.00%	1.00%	47.00%	47.00%	0.00%		52.00%	1.00%	47.00%
Fem	54.00%	48.00%	0.00%	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		48.00%	0.00%	52.00%
Total	7,604	49.84%	0.46%	49.70%	49.70%	0.00%		49.84%	0.46%	49.70%
										
MaleS			0.46%	21.62%	21.62%	0.00%		1818.78	34.98	1643.89
FemS			0.00%	28.08%	28.08%	0.00%		1970.85	0.00	2135.08
										
GA	1536	2.50%								
Male	44.00%	60.00%	0	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		60.00%	0.00%	40.00%
Fem	56.00%	54.00%	0	46.00%	46.00%	0.00%		54.00%	0.00%	46.00%
Total	3,299	56.64%	0.00%	42.92%	43.36%	0.44%		56.64%	0.00%	43.36%
										
MaleS			0.00%	17.16%	17.60%	0.44%		870.88	0.00	580.59
FemS			0.00%	25.76%	25.76%	0.00%		997.55	0.00	849.77
										
HI	499	4.39%								
Male	46.00%	51.00%	0	49.00%	49.00%	0.00%		51.00%	0.00%	49.00%
Fem	54.00%	43.00%	0	57.00%	57.00%	0.00%		43.00%	0.00%	57.00%
Total	429	46.68%	0.00%	53.32%	53.32%	0.00%		46.68%	0.00%	53.32%
										
MaleS			0.00%	22.54%	22.54%	0.00%		100.65	0.00	96.70
FemS			0.00%	30.78%	30.78%	0.00%		99.62	0.00	132.05
										
ID	539	4.22%								
Male	45.00%	69.00%	0	29.00%	31.00%	2.00%		69.00%	0.00%	31.00%
Fem	55.00%	63.00%	0	36.00%	37.00%	1.00%		63.00%	0.00%	37.00%
Total	598	65.70%	0.00%	32.85%	34.30%	1.45%		65.70%	0.00%	34.30%
										
MaleS			0.00%	13.05%	13.95%	0.90%		185.80	0.00	83.47
FemS			0.00%	19.80%	20.35%	0.55%		207.34	0.00	121.77
										
IL	1392	2.63%								
Male	46.00%	44.00%	0	55.00%	56.00%	1.00%		44.00%	0.00%	56.00%
Fem	54.00%	41.00%	0	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		41.00%	0.00%	59.00%
Total	5,275	42.38%	0.00%	56.62%	57.62%	1.00%		42.38%	0.00%	57.62%
										
MaleS			0.00%	25.30%	25.76%	0.46%		1067.72	0.00	1358.91
FemS			0.00%	31.32%	31.86%	0.54%		1167.95	0.00	1680.71
										
IN	926	4.39%								
Male	48.00%	60.00%	0.00%	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		60.00%	0.00%	40.00%
Fem	52.00%	57.00%	0.00%	42.00%	43.00%	1.00%		57.00%	0.00%	43.00%
Total	2,468	58.44%	0.00%	40.56%	41.56%	1.00%		58.44%	0.00%	41.56%
										
MaleS			0.00%	18.72%	19.20%	0.48%		710.77	0.00	473.84
FemS			0.00%	21.84%	22.36%	0.52%		731.50	0.00	551.83
										
IA	2502	2.00%								
Male	46.00%	50.00%	2.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		50.00%	2.00%	48.00%
Fem	54.00%	47.00%	1.00%	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		47.00%	1.00%	52.00%
Total	1,505	48.38%	1.46%	49.70%	50.16%	0.46%		48.38%	1.46%	50.16%
										
MaleS			0.92%	21.62%	22.08%	0.46%		346.21	13.85	332.36
FemS			0.54%	28.08%	28.08%	0.00%		382.04	8.13	422.68
										
KS	654	3.83%								
Male	45.00%	65.00%	1.00%	33.00%	34.00%	1.00%		65.00%	1.00%	34.00%
Fem	55.00%	64.00%	1.00%	35.00%	35.00%	0.00%		64.00%	1.00%	35.00%
Total	1,188	64.45%	1.00%	34.10%	34.55%	0.45%		64.45%	1.00%	34.55%
										
MaleS			0.45%	14.85%	15.30%	0.45%		347.41	5.34	181.72
FemS			0.55%	19.25%	19.25%	0.00%		418.09	6.53	228.64
										
KY	1034	3.05%								
Male	46.00%	60.00%	1.00%	38.00%	39.00%	1.00%		60.00%	1.00%	39.00%
Fem	54.00%	57.00%	0.00%	42.00%	43.00%	1.00%		57.00%	0.00%	43.00%
Total	1,796	58.38%	0.46%	40.16%	41.16%	1.00%		58.38%	0.46%	41.16%
										
MaleS			0.46%	17.48%	17.94%	0.46%		495.66	8.26	322.18
FemS			0.00%	22.68%	23.22%	0.54%		552.77	0.00	417.00
										
LA	1669	2.40%								
Male	45.00%	58.00%	1.00%	40.00%	41.00%	1.00%		58.00%	1.00%	41.00%
Fem	55.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
Total	1,939	54.70%	0.45%	43.85%	44.85%	1.00%		54.70%	0.45%	44.85%
										
MaleS			0.45%	18.00%	18.45%	0.45%		506.02	8.72	357.70
FemS			0.00%	25.85%	26.40%	0.55%		554.49	0.00	511.83
										
ME	1968	2.21%								
Male	47.00%	48.00%	2.00%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%		48.00%	2.00%	50.00%
Fem	53.00%	41.00%	1.00%	58.00%	58.00%	0.00%		41.00%	1.00%	58.00%
Total	741	44.29%	1.47%	53.77%	54.24%	0.47%		44.29%	1.47%	54.24%
										
MaleS			0.94%	23.03%	23.50%	0.47%		167.11	6.96	174.08
FemS			0.53%	30.74%	30.74%	0.00%		160.96	3.93	227.71
										
MD	1000	3.10%								
Male	46.00%	45.00%	0.00%	54.00%	55.00%	1.00%		45.00%	0.00%	55.00%
Fem	54.00%	40.00%	1.00%	58.00%	59.00%	1.00%		40.00%	1.00%	59.00%
Total	2,384	42.30%	0.54%	56.16%	57.16%	1.00%		42.30%	0.54%	57.16%
										
MaleS			0.00%	24.84%	25.30%	0.46%		493.53	0.00	603.20
FemS			0.54%	31.32%	31.86%	0.54%		514.99	12.87	759.61
										
MA	869	3.32%								
Male	48.00%	36.00%	0.00%	61.00%	64.00%	3.00%		36.00%	0.00%	64.00%
Fem	52.00%	30.00%	0.00%	69.00%	70.00%	1.00%		30.00%	0.00%	70.00%
Total	2,905	32.88%	0.00%	65.16%	67.12%	1.96%		32.88%	0.00%	67.12%
										
MaleS			0.00%	29.28%	30.72%	1.44%		502.05	0.00	892.53
FemS			0.00%	35.88%	36.40%	0.52%		453.24	0.00	1057.55
										
MI	2452	1.98%								
Male	50.00%	48.00%	1.00%	49.00%	51.00%	2.00%		48.00%	1.00%	51.00%
Fem	50.00%	45.00%	1.00%	54.00%	54.00%	0.00%		45.00%	1.00%	54.00%
Total	4,838	46.50%	1.00%	51.50%	52.50%	1.00%		46.50%	1.00%	52.50%
										
MaleS			0.50%	24.50%	25.50%	1.00%		1161.08	24.19	1233.64
FemS			0.50%	27.00%	27.00%	0.00%		1088.51	24.19	1306.21
										
MN	2178	2.10%								
Male	48.00%	45.00%	1.00%	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%		45.00%	1.00%	54.00%
Fem	52.00%	44.00%	1.00%	54.00%	55.00%	1.00%		44.00%	1.00%	55.00%
Total	2,823	44.48%	1.00%	53.52%	54.52%	1.00%		44.48%	1.00%	54.52%
										
MaleS			0.48%	25.44%	25.92%	0.48%		609.66	13.55	731.60
FemS			0.52%	28.08%	28.60%	0.52%		645.79	14.68	807.24
										
MS	798	3.47%								
Male	47.00%	56.00%	1.00%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		56.00%	1.00%	43.00%
Fem	53.00%	57.00%	0.00%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		57.00%	0.00%	43.00%
Total	1,138	56.53%	0.47%	43.00%	43.00%	0.00%		56.53%	0.47%	43.00%
										
MaleS			0.47%	20.21%	20.21%	0.00%		299.58	5.35	230.04
FemS			0.00%	22.79%	22.79%	0.00%		343.86	0.00	259.40
										
MO	2158	2.11%								
Male	47.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
Fem	53.00%	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
Total	2,731	52.00%	0.00%	47.00%	48.00%	1.00%		52.00%	0.00%	48.00%
										
MaleS			0.00%	22.09%	22.56%	0.47%		667.55	0.00	616.20
FemS			0.00%	24.91%	25.44%	0.53%		752.76	0.00	694.86
										
MT	640	3.87%								
Male	51.00%	57.00%	3.00%	38.00%	40.00%	2.00%		57.00%	3.00%	40.00%
Fem	49.00%	59.00%	3.00%	37.00%	38.00%	1.00%		59.00%	3.00%	38.00%
Total	450	57.98%	3.00%	37.51%	39.02%	1.51%		57.98%	3.00%	39.02%
										
MaleS	49.98%	29.07%	1.53%	19.38%	20.40%	1.02%		130.94	6.89	91.89
FemS	48.51%	28.91%	1.47%	18.13%	18.62%	0.49%		130.22	6.62	83.87
										
NE	785	3.50%								
Male	48.00%	62.00%	2.00%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		62.00%	2.00%	36.00%
Fem	52.00%	63.00%	1.00%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		63.00%	1.00%	36.00%
Total	777	62.52%	1.48%	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		62.52%	1.48%	36.00%
										
MaleS			0.96%	17.28%	17.28%	0.00%		231.29	7.46	134.30
FemS			0.52%	18.72%	18.72%	0.00%		254.60	4.04	145.49
										
NV	2116	2.13%								
Male	48.00%	51.00%	3.00%	45.00%	46.00%	1.00%		51.00%	3.00%	46.00%
Fem	52.00%	45.00%	1.00%	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%		45.00%	1.00%	54.00%
Total	826	47.88%	1.96%	49.16%	50.16%	1.00%		47.88%	1.96%	50.16%
										
MaleS			1.44%	21.60%	22.08%	0.48%		202.18	11.89	182.36
FemS			0.52%	27.56%	28.08%	0.52%		193.26	4.29	231.91
										
NH	1849	2.28%								
Male	51.00%	47.00%	0.00%	52.00%	53.00%	1.00%		47.00%	0.00%	53.00%
Fem	49.00%	41.00%	2.00%	58.00%	57.00%	-1.00%		41.00%	2.00%	57.00%
Total	676	44.06%	0.98%	54.94%	54.96%	0.02%		44.06%	0.98%	54.96%
										
MaleS			0.00%	26.52%	27.03%	0.51%		162.09	0.00	182.78
FemS			0.98%	28.42%	27.93%	-0.49%		135.85	6.63	188.87
										
NM	1951	2.22%								
Male	46.00%	48.00%	2.00%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%		48.00%	2.00%	50.00%
Fem	54.00%	47.00%	1.00%	51.00%	52.00%	1.00%		47.00%	1.00%	52.00%
Total	756	47.46%	1.46%	50.08%	51.08%	1.00%		47.46%	1.46%	51.08%
										
MaleS			0.92%	22.54%	23.00%	0.46%		166.99	6.96	173.95
FemS			0.54%	27.54%	28.08%	0.54%		191.95	4.08	212.37
										
NJ	1520.00	2.51%								
Male	47.00%	49.00%	0.00%	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Fem	53.00%	44.00%	0.00%	56.00%	56.00%	0.00%		44.00%	0.00%	56.00%
Total	3,610	46.35%	0.00%	53.65%	53.65%	0.00%		46.35%	0.00%	53.65%
										
MaleS			0.00%	23.97%	23.97%	0.00%		831.37	0.00	865.30
FemS			0.00%	29.68%	29.68%	0.00%		841.83	0.00	1071.42
										
NY	1476	2.55%								
Male	47.00%	35%	0	65.00%	65.00%	0.00%		35.00%	0.00%	65.00%
Fem	53.00%	38%	0	62.00%	62.00%	0.00%		38.00%	0.00%	62.00%
Total	7,389	36.59%	0.00%	63.41%	63.41%	0.00%		36.59%	0.00%	63.41%
										
MaleS			0.00%	30.55%	30.55%	0.00%		1215.43	0.00	2257.22
FemS			0.00%	32.86%	32.86%	0.00%		1488.07	0.00	2427.90
										
NC	2099	2.14%								
Male	47.00%	55%	0	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		55.00%	0.00%	45.00%
Fem	53.00%	49%	0	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Total	3,501	51.82%	0.00%	48.18%	48.18%	0.00%		51.82%	0.00%	48.18%
										
MaleS			0.00%	21.15%	21.15%	0.00%		904.92	0.00	740.39
FemS			0.00%	27.03%	27.03%	0.00%		909.12	0.00	946.23
										
ND	649	3.85%								
Male	49.00%	68.00%	2.00%	29.00%	30.00%	1.00%		68.00%	2.00%	30.00%
Fem	51.00%	61.00%	2.00%	36.00%	37.00%	1.00%		61.00%	2.00%	37.00%
Total	313	64.43%	2.00%	32.57%	33.57%	1.00%		64.43%	2.00%	33.57%
										
MaleS			0.98%	14.21%	14.70%	0.49%		104.23	3.07	45.99
FemS			1.02%	18.36%	18.87%	0.51%		97.32	3.19	59.03
										
OH	1963	2.21%								
Male	47.00%	49.00%	0	51.00%	51.00%	0.00%		49.00%	0.00%	51.00%
Fem	53.00%	47.00%	0	53.00%	53.00%	0.00%		47.00%	0.00%	53.00%
Total	5,625	47.94%	0.00%	52.06%	52.06%	0.00%		47.94%	0.00%	52.06%
										
MaleS			0.00%	23.97%	23.97%	0.00%		1295.55	0.00	1348.42
FemS			0.00%	28.09%	28.09%	0.00%		1401.30	0.00	1580.19
										
OK	1539	2.50%								
Male	48.00%	66.00%	0	33.00%	34.00%	1.00%		66.00%	0.00%	34.00%
Fem	52.00%	64.00%	0	36.00%	36.00%	0.00%		64.00%	0.00%	36.00%
Total	1,464	64.96%	0.00%	34.56%	35.04%	0.48%		64.96%	0.00%	35.04%
										
MaleS			0.00%	15.84%	16.32%	0.48%		463.72	0.00	238.89
FemS			0.00%	18.72%	18.72%	0.00%		487.14	0.00	274.02
										
OR	1054	3.02%								
Male	45.00%	55.00%	0	42.00%	45.00%	3.00%		55.00%	0.00%	45.00%
Fem	55.00%	42.00%	0	57.00%	58.00%	1.00%		42.00%	0.00%	58.00%
Total	1,828	47.85%	0.00%	50.25%	52.15%	1.90%		47.85%	0.00%	52.15%
										
MaleS			0.00%	18.90%	20.25%	1.35%		452.39	0.00	370.13
FemS			0.00%	31.35%	31.90%	0.55%		422.23	0.00	583.08
										
PA	1930	2.23%								
Male	47.00%	48.00%	0	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		48.00%	0.00%	52.00%
Fem	53.00%	43.00%	0	56.00%	57.00%	1.00%		43.00%	0.00%	57.00%
Total	5,766	45.35%	0.00%	54.12%	54.65%	0.53%		45.35%	0.00%	54.65%
										
MaleS			0.00%	24.44%	24.44%	0.00%		1300.76	0.00	1409.15
FemS			0.00%	29.68%	30.21%	0.53%		1314.02	0.00	1741.84
										
RI	809	3.45%								
Male	47.00%	37.00%	2.00%	60.00%	61.00%	1.00%		37.00%	2.00%	61.00%
Fem	53.00%	33.00%	2.00%	65.00%	65.00%	0.00%		33.00%	2.00%	65.00%
Total	436	34.88%	2.00%	62.65%	63.12%	0.47%		34.88%	2.00%	63.12%
										
MaleS			0.94%	28.20%	28.67%	0.47%		75.83	4.10	125.01
FemS			1.06%	34.45%	34.45%	0.00%		76.26	4.62	150.21
										
SC	1935	2.23%								
Male	43.00%	58.00%	1.00%	40.00%	41.00%	1.00%		58.00%	1.00%	41.00%
Fem	57.00%	50.00%	1.00%	49.00%	49.00%	0.00%		50.00%	1.00%	49.00%
Total	1,616	53.44%	1.00%	45.13%	45.56%	0.43%		53.44%	1.00%	45.56%
										
MaleS			0.43%	17.20%	17.63%	0.43%		402.93	6.95	284.83
FemS			0.57%	27.93%	27.93%	0.00%		460.45	9.21	451.24
										
SD	1495	2.53%								
Male	51.00%	61.00%	3.00%	35.00%	36.00%	1.00%		61.00%	3.00%	36.00%
Fem	49.00%	61.00%	1.00%	38.00%	38.00%	0.00%		61.00%	1.00%	38.00%
Total	388	61.00%	2.02%	36.47%	36.98%	0.51%		61.00%	2.02%	36.98%
										
MaleS			1.53%	17.85%	18.36%	0.51%		120.77	5.94	71.28
FemS			0.49%	18.62%	18.62%	0.00%		116.04	1.90	72.29
										
TN	1774	2.33%								
Male	48.00%	58.00%	2.00%	39.00%	40.00%	1.00%		58.00%	2.00%	40.00%
Fem	52.00%	58.00%	0.00%	42.00%	42.00%	0.00%		58.00%	0.00%	42.00%
Total	2,437	58.00%	0.96%	40.56%	41.04%	0.48%		58.00%	0.96%	41.04%
										
MaleS			0.96%	18.72%	19.20%	0.48%		678.55	23.40	467.96
FemS			0.00%	21.84%	21.84%	0.00%		735.09	0.00	532.31
										
TX	1671	2.40%								
Male	46.00%	59.00%	0	39.00%	41.00%	2.00%		59.00%	0.00%	41.00%
Fem	54.00%	65.00%	0	34.00%	35.00%	1.00%		65.00%	0.00%	35.00%
Total	7,410	62.24%	0.00%	36.30%	37.76%	1.46%		62.24%	0.00%	37.76%
										
MaleS			0.00%	17.94%	18.86%	0.92%		2011.13	0.00	1397.56
FemS			0.00%	18.36%	18.90%	0.54%		2600.98	0.00	1400.53
										
UT	798	3.47%								
Male	46.00%	67.00%	3.00%	28.00%	30.00%	2.00%		67.00%	3.00%	30.00%
Fem	54.00%	69.00%	1.00%	30.00%	30.00%	0.00%		69.00%	1.00%	30.00%
Total	927	68.08%	1.92%	29.08%	30.00%	0.92%		68.08%	1.92%	30.00%
										
MaleS			1.38%	12.88%	13.80%	0.92%		285.55	12.79	127.86
FemS			0.54%	16.20%	16.20%	0.00%		345.21	5.00	150.09
										
VT	685	3.74%								
Male	45.00%	36.00%	2.00%	62.00%	62.00%	0.00%		36.00%	2.00%	62.00%
Fem	55.00%	31.00%	3.00%	65.00%	66.00%	1.00%		31.00%	3.00%	66.00%
Total	311	33.25%	2.55%	63.65%	64.20%	0.55%		33.25%	2.55%	64.20%
										
MaleS			0.90%	27.90%	27.90%	0.00%		50.36	2.80	86.73
FemS			1.65%	35.75%	36.30%	0.55%		53.00	5.13	112.84
										
VA	1432	2.59%								
Male	47.00%	56%	0	44.00%	44.00%	0.00%		56.00%	0.00%	44.00%
Fem	53.00%	48%	0	52.00%	52.00%	0.00%		48.00%	0.00%	52.00%
Total	3,193	51.76%	0.00%	48.24%	48.24%	0.00%		51.76%	0.00%	48.24%
										
MaleS			0.00%	20.68%	20.68%	0.00%		840.37	0.00	660.29
FemS			0.00%	27.56%	27.56%	0.00%		812.27	0.00	879.96
										
WA	2123	2.13%								
Male	43.00%	48.00%	1.00%	49.00%	51.00%	2.00%		48.00%	1.00%	51.00%
Fem	57.00%	41.00%	1.00%	58.00%	58.00%	0.00%		41.00%	1.00%	58.00%
Total	2,857	44.01%	1.00%	54.13%	54.99%	0.86%		44.01%	1.00%	54.99%
										
MaleS			0.43%	21.07%	21.93%	0.86%		589.73	12.29	626.59
FemS			0.57%	33.06%	33.06%	0.00%		667.73	16.29	944.60
										
WV	1722	2.36%								
Male	47.00%	54.00%	1.00%	44.00%	45.00%	1.00%		54.00%	1.00%	45.00%
Fem	53.00%	54.00%	1.00%	45.00%	45.00%	0.00%		54.00%	1.00%	45.00%
Total	756	54.00%	1.00%	44.53%	45.00%	0.47%		54.00%	1.00%	45.00%
										
MaleS			0.47%	20.68%	21.15%	0.47%		191.84	3.55	159.87
FemS			0.53%	23.85%	23.85%	0.00%		216.33	4.01	180.28
										
WI	2223	2.08%								
Male	47.00%	52.00%	2.00%	45.00%	46.00%	1.00%		52.00%	2.00%	46.00%
Fem	53.00%	46.00%	1.00%	53.00%	53.00%	0.00%		46.00%	1.00%	53.00%
Total	2,993	48.82%	1.47%	49.24%	49.71%	0.47%		48.82%	1.47%	49.71%
										
MaleS			0.94%	21.15%	21.62%	0.47%		731.52	28.14	647.12
FemS			0.53%	28.09%	28.09%	0.00%		729.73	15.86	840.77
										
WY	684	3.75%								
Male	51.00%	67.00%	3.00%	28.00%	30.00%	2.00%		67.00%	3.00%	30.00%
Fem	49.00%	64.00%	1.00%	34.00%	35.00%	1.00%		64.00%	1.00%	35.00%
Total	243	65.53%	2.02%	30.94%	32.45%	1.51%		65.53%	2.02%	32.45%
										
MaleS			1.53%	14.28%	15.30%	1.02%		83.02	3.72	37.17
FemS			0.49%	16.66%	17.15%	0.49%		76.19	1.19	41.67

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Reply #8: Nitpicking again

davidgmills

Member since Sep 15th 2005

2668 posts

Tue Sep-27-05 09:03 AM
In response to Reply #5

In your written analysis you talk about 3 case scenarioes but in your work you
only show two.  The one that is missing is the one that is off by .01% and the
one you really are relying upon.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

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Reply #9: See post # 7. No, you are not nitpicking. The reason I show two cases is...

TruthIsAll

Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Tue Sep-27-05 11:42 AM
In response to Reply #8

Edited by TruthIsAll on Tue Sep-27-05 11:53 AM

First, I found some data errors. The .01% discrepancy no longer applies.
You have seen the latest update.

I don't show the even split detail case because I have only coded Excel for the
two cases: 0% and 100% of the diff to Kerry. But you can just split the results
in half and interpolate to derive the 50% split of the diff. Its a linear
relationship. It's not necessary to go through the work to modify the spread
sheet for this.

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Reply #10: OK just checking

davidgmills

Member since Sep 15th 2005

2668 posts

Tue Sep-27-05 12:38 PM
In response to Reply #9

n/t

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

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Reply #6: The Truth hurts!

autorank

Member since Sep 14th 2005

2119 posts

Tue Sep-27-05 12:23 AM
In response to Original Post

Good god, you continue to outdo yourself:

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NATIONAL AND STATE EXIT POLLS IS ONE-HUNDRETH OF
A PERCENT. HOW CLOSE CAN YOU GET? HOW MUCH CONFIRMATION DO YOU NEED? HOW CAN
ALL THESE POLLS (13047 + 73000 RESPONDENTS) BE WRONG?

Obrador for President Site

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Reply #7: Demographic Table Summary Comparison

TruthIsAll

Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Tue Sep-27-05 06:00 AM
In response to Reply #6

Edited by TruthIsAll on Tue Sep-27-05 06:22 AM

Assume an equal split of the horizontal vote discrepancies to Kerry and Bush,
then the percentages are as follows:

Gender   Nat State 
Male     46  46.69
Female   54  53.31

Vote
Kerry   50.78 50.44
Bush    48.22 49.16
Other    1.00  0.40 

Kerry
Male     46  48.51
Female   54  52.13

Bush
Male     52  51.47
Female   45  47.58

Notes: 
National Exit Poll numbers are rounded.
The 0.40% state total for 3rd party (other) is clearly too low. They received
close to 1.0% of the vote.

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Reply #11: Truth is all, thank you for doing it once again!

All_The_States

Member since Sep 18th 2005

894 posts

Sat Oct-01-05 11:07 PM
In response to Original Post

This proves it irrevocably......This is truly the smoking gun of all!

http://www.exitpollz.org/cnn2004epolls/Pres_epolls/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

This poll, both the unweighted average and weighted average of the data if it
can be pulled together state by state refutes EVERY single ridiculous argument
Mitofsky wants to pull on the world.

Someone MUST get this data and thesis into Stephen Freeman!!!!! Who can do it?
This needs to be used to CRUSH Mitofsky, because it proves with little
resistance, that 3% of the gender vote is impossible and was SWITCHED....

And if it was switched across aisle, according to the states like the data
suggests, the states MUST turn over their election data period.

Any judge would force them to turn over the data after realizing that this
gender vote in every single scenario, is impossible for Bush to receive. It
means the votes were SWITCHED across straight-ticket lines.......WHO WILL DO
THE WORK? Lets go for it!! 

ATS

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