2004 Pre-election/Exit Polling: 
Monte Carlo Simulation; EV Win Probability; Optimization Analysis
 
Edison-Mitofsky provide 3 state exit poll estimates in the Jan '05 report.
Bush's recorded vote share was 50.73-48.27%. He won 286 electoral votes.

WPE (Within-Precinct-Error): the difference between the average precinct exit
poll margin and recorded vote margin – after removing 4 “outliers” which most
likely lowered the average Kerry share. Kerry’s weighted average national vote
share was 51.81%. His electoral vote was 324.

BEST GEO: the estimate made at close-of-poll, weighted by sample, but not by
results or pre-election estimates. Kerry’s vote share was 51.02%. His electoral
vote was 301.

COMPOSITE (12:22am): the estimate after adjustment to pre-election estimates. 
Kerry’s vote share was 50.28%. His electoral vote was 288.

The WPE estimate represents nearly “pristine” raw state exit poll results.  E-M
did not provide corresponding vote shares, but these are easily calculated by
applying the state WPE to the official recorded vote. 

The 2004 Election Model projected Kerry as the 2-party vote winner: 
51.80-48.20% (see the link below).

Example: 
Calculation of the Ohio exit poll vote shares using WPE

The recorded (official) Ohio vote was: 
B = 50.8% 
K = 48.7% 
BM = 2.1% 
WPE= 10.9%

where 
K   = Kerry official state vote share
B   = Bush official state vote share
WPE = Within Precinct Error
BM  = Bush official margin 
 
Determine:
KP = Kerry exit poll share
BP = Bush exit poll share
 
Calculations:
BP = B - 0.5* WPE
BP = 50.8% - 5.45% = 45.35%
KP = K + 0.5* WPE
KP = 48.7% + 5.45% = 54.15% 
 
Confirm the Bush margin:
BEM = BP - KP = 45.35%- 54.15% = -8.8%
BEM = BM – WPE = 2.1% - 10.9% = -8.8%
 
The probability that the margin of error (MoE) would be exceeded in at least N
states is calculated using the Excel BINOMDIST function: 
Prob = 1- BINOMDIST(N-1, 51, 0.025, TRUE)

1) Given a 30% cluster effect (added to the MoE):
24 states exceeded the MoE for Bush. 
The probability is virtually ZERO! 

2) For a 70% cluster:
16 states exceeded the MoE.
The probability is 1 in 19 trillion!

3) Assuming NO (0%) cluster effect:
27 states exceeded the MoE.
You can guess the probability. 
Hint: it's even lower than the 30% cluster!


       Cluster	       0%	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%	80%	
	States>MoE	27	25	24	24	22	20	17	16     15         
	Prob:1 in	zero	zero	zero	zero	zero	750tr	257tr	19tr	1tr	
      

MONTE CARLO POLLING SIMULATION (see link below).
SCENARIO I

Cluster Effect:30%

Key result:
Kerry wins 335 Electoral votes

Forty-four states deviated to Bush from the exit polls. 
Twenty-four exceeded the MoE. 

Only 7 states deviated to Kerry; none exceeded the MoE except for Oregon (a
miniscule 0.3% discrepancy). Is it just a coincidence that OR votes by mail and
was easily the most accurate state exit poll? 

These deep-red states also deviated to Kerry: KY, MT, ND, OK, SD, WV. Kerry
didn't expect to win any of them. Was this also just a coincidence?

BUT 15 OF 16 BATTLEGROUND STATES DEVIATED TO BUSH.
(BUSHCO COULDN'T STEAL OREGON - A 100% PAPER BALLOT STATE)
THIRTEEN OF THE 15 DEVIATED BEYOND THE MARGIN OF ERROR.

* INDICATES BATTLEGROUND STATE

											
		Kerry		MoE	Win    Exit Poll      Recorded   Deviation	States	Exceed
	EV	EV	WPE	Exit	Prob	Kerry Bush	Kerry	Bush Prob.	Favor	MoE
	Total	335	7.1			51.8	47.2	48.3	50.7		44	24
												
AL	9		11.3	4.64%	0.1%	42.5	56.8	36.9	62.5	0.9%	Bush	yes
AK	3		9.6	4.14%	0.0%	40.3	56.3	35.6	61.2	1.3%	Bush	yes
AR	6		0.5	2.95%	0.0%	44.8	54.1	44.6	54.3	43.4%	Bush	
AZ	10		4.6	3.40%	2.8%	46.7	52.6	44.4	54.9	9.2%	Bush	
CA	55	55	10.9	2.89%	100%	59.8	38.9	54.4	44.5	0.0%	Bush	yes
												
CO*	9		6.1	2.54%	53%	50.1	48.6	47.1	51.8	1.0%	Bush	yes
CT	7	7	15.7	4.25%	100%	62.2	36.1	54.3	43.9	0.0%	Bush	yes
DE	3	3	15.9	4.53%	100%	61.3	37.8	53.4	45.8	0.0%	Bush	yes
DC	3	3	3.4	2.50%	100%	90.9	7.6	89.4	9.4	12.5%	Bush	
FL*	27	27	7.6	2.39%	77%	50.9	48.3	47.1	52.1	0.1%	Bush	yes
												
GA	15		2.2	3.22%	0.0%	42.5	56.9	41.4	58.0	25.4%	Bush	
HI	4	4	4.7	5.69%	99%	56.4	42.9	54.0	45.3	20.5%	Bush	
ID	4		1	5.08%	0.0%	30.8	67.9	30.3	68.4	41.8%	Bush	
IL	21	21	4.4	3.38%	100%	57.0	42.3	54.8	44.5	10.3%	Bush	
IN	11		1.5	4.12%	0.0%	40.0	59.2	39.3	59.9	36.3%	Bush	
												
IA*	7		5	2.55%	71%	50.7	48.4	49.3	50.0	13.8%	Bush	
KS	6		1.7	4.74%	0.0%	37.5	61.2	36.6	62.0	35.9%	Bush	
KY	8		-0.1	3.89%	0.0%	39.6	59.6	39.7	59.6	48.2%	Kerry	
LA	9		3.8	3.10%	0.0%	44.1	54.8	42.3	56.8	12.9%	Bush	
ME	4	4	3.8	2.86%	100%	55.5	42.7	53.6	44.6	9.3%	Bush	
												
MD	10	10	8.1	3.99%	100%	60.0	38.9	56.0	43.0	2.4%	Bush	yes
MA	12	12	5.8	4.03%	100%	64.8	33.9	62.1	36.9	9.4%	Bush	
MI*	17	17	6.3	2.57%	100%	54.4	44.7	51.2	47.8	0.8%	Bush	yes
MN*	10	10	9.3	2.72%	100%	55.7	43.0	51.2	47.7	0.1%	Bush	yes
MS	6		11.3	4.47%	3.3%	45.8	53.4	40.2	59.1	0.7%	Bush	yes
												
MO*	11	11	5.8	2.74%	24%	49.0	50.4	46.1	53.3	1.9%	Bush	yes
MT	3		-1.8	4.92%	0.0%	37.7	60.0	38.6	59.1	36.5%	Kerry	
NE	5		8.1	4.38%	0.0%	36.7	61.8	32.7	66.0	3.8%	Bush	
NV*	5	5	10.1	2.77%	98%	52.9	45.4	48.1	50.7	0.0%	Bush	yes
NH*	4	4	13.6	2.94%	100%	57.0	42.1	50.4	49.0	0.0%	Bush	yes
												
NJ	15	15	9.7	3.24%	100%	57.8	41.4	52.9	46.3	0.2%	Bush	yes
NM*	5	5	7.8	2.88%	98%	52.9	45.9	49.0	49.8	0.4%	Bush	yes
NY	31	31	11.4	3.21%	100%	64.1	34.4	58.4	40.1	0.0%	Bush	yes
NC*	15	15	11.3	2.73%	28%	49.2	50.4	43.6	56.0	0.0%	Bush	yes
ND	3		-5.2	4.72%	0.0%	32.9	65.5	35.5	62.9	14.0%	Kerry	
												
OH*	20	20	10.9	2.87%	99.8%	54.2	45.4	48.7	50.8	0.0%	Bush	yes
OK	7		-1.9	3.09%	0.0%	33.5	66.5	34.4	65.6	27.8%	Kerry	
OR*	7	7	0	3.90%	74%	51.3	47.2	51.6	47.4	44.0%	Kerry	
PA*	21	21	8.8	2.89%	100%	55.3	44.0	51.0	48.5	0.2%	Bush	yes
RI	4	4	4.7	4.29%	100%	61.8	36.3	59.6	38.8	15.5%	Bush	
												
SC	8		10	3.05%	0.4%	45.9	53.0	41.0	58.1	0.1%	Bush	yes
SD	3		-4.2	3.19%	0.0%	36.3	62.0	38.4	59.9	9.4%	Kerry	
TN	11		0.5	2.98%	0.0%	42.8	56.5	42.5	56.8	42.8%	Bush	
TX	34		4.8	3.01%	0.0%	40.6	58.7	38.2	61.1	6.1%	Bush	
UT	5		6.4	4.13%	0.0%	29.2	68.3	26.0	71.6	6.6%	Bush	
												
VT	3	3	15	4.62%	100%	66.4	31.3	59.2	39.0	0.1%	Bush	yes
VA*	13		7.9	3.37%	36%	49.4	49.7	45.6	53.8	1.3%	Bush	yes
WA*	11	11	8.4	2.75%	100%	57.0	41.4	52.9	45.7	0.2%	Bush	yes
WV	5		-5.8	3.06%	0.0%	40.3	59.0	43.2	56.1	3.1%	Kerry	
WI*	10	10	4.7	2.70%	93%	52.0	47.0	49.8	49.4	5.2%	Bush	
WY	3		4.3	4.55%	0.0%	31.2	66.7	29.1	69.0	18.6%	Bush	


SCENARIO II

Cluster Effect:0%

Key Result:
Kerry wins 322 Electoral votes

Forty-four states deviate to Bush from the exit polls. 
Twenty-seven exceed the MoE. 

		Kerry		MoE	Win    Exit Poll      Recorded   Deviation	States	Exceed
	EV	EV	WPE	Exit	Prob	Kerry Bush	Kerry	Bush Prob.	Favor	MoE

	Total	322	7.11			51.81	47.19	48.32	50.77		44	27
												
AL	9		11.3	3.57%	0.0%	42.5	56.8	36.9	62.5	0.1%	Bush	yes
AK	3		9.6	3.18%	0.0%	40.3	56.3	35.6	61.2	0.2%	Bush	yes
AR	6		0.5	2.27%	0.0%	44.8	54.1	44.6	54.3	41.4%	Bush	
AZ	10		4.6	2.61%	0.7%	46.7	52.6	44.4	54.9	4.2%	Bush	
CA	55	55	10.9	2.22%	100%	59.8	38.9	54.4	44.5	0.0%	Bush	yes
												
CO	9		6.1	1.95%	54%	50.1	48.6	47.1	51.8	0.1%	Bush	yes
CT	7	7	15.7	3.27%	100%	62.2	36.1	54.3	43.9	0.0%	Bush	yes
DE	3	3	15.9	3.48%	100%	61.3	37.8	53.4	45.8	0.0%	Bush	yes
DC	3	3	3.4	1.92%	100%	90.9	7.6	89.4	9.4	6.8%	Bush	
FL	27	27	7.6	1.84%	83%	50.9	48.3	47.1	52.1	0.0%	Bush	yes
												
GA	15		2.2	2.48%	0.0%	42.5	56.9	41.4	58.0	19.5%	Bush	
HI	4	4	4.7	4.38%	99.8%	56.4	42.9	54.0	45.3	14.2%	Bush	
ID	4		1	3.91%	0.0%	30.8	67.9	30.3	68.4	39.4%	Bush	
IL	21	21	4.4	2.60%	100%	57.0	42.3	54.8	44.5	5.0%	Bush	
IN	11		1.5	3.17%	0.0%	40.0	59.2	39.3	59.9	32.4%	Bush	
												
IA	7	7	5	1.96%	76%	50.7	48.4	49.3	50.0	7.9%	Bush	
KS	6		1.7	3.65%	0.0%	37.5	61.2	36.6	62.0	31.9%	Bush	
KY	8		-0.1	3.00%	0.0%	39.6	59.6	39.7	59.6	47.7%	Kerry	
LA	9		3.8	2.38%	0.0%	44.1	54.8	42.3	56.8	7.1%	Bush	
ME	4	4	3.8	2.20%	100%	55.5	42.7	53.6	44.6	4.3%	Bush	
												
MD	10	10	8.1	3.07%	100%	60.0	38.9	56.0	43.0	0.5%	Bush	yes
MA	12	12	5.8	3.10%	100%	64.8	33.9	62.1	36.9	4.3%	Bush	
MI	17	17	6.3	1.98%	100%	54.4	44.7	51.2	47.8	0.1%	Bush	yes
MN	10	10	9.3	2.09%	100%	55.7	43.0	51.2	47.7	0.0%	Bush	yes
MS	6		11.3	3.44%	0.8%	45.8	53.4	40.2	59.1	0.1%	Bush	yes
												
MO	11		5.8	2.11%	18%	49.0	50.4	46.1	53.3	0.3%	Bush	yes
MT	3		-1.8	3.78%	0.0%	37.7	60.0	38.6	59.1	32.7%	Kerry	
NE	5		8.1	3.37%	0.0%	36.7	61.8	32.7	66.0	1.0%	Bush	yes
NV	5	5	10.1	2.13%	99.6%	52.9	45.4	48.1	50.7	0.0%	Bush	yes
NH	4	4	13.6	2.27%	100%	57.0	42.1	50.4	49.0	0.0%	Bush	yes
												
NJ	15	15	9.7	2.49%	100%	57.8	41.4	52.9	46.3	0.0%	Bush	yes
NM	5	5	7.8	2.22%	99.5%	52.9	45.9	49.0	49.8	0.0%	Bush	yes
NY	31	31	11.4	2.47%	100%	64.1	34.4	58.4	40.1	0.0%	Bush	yes
NC	15		11.3	2.10%	23%	49.2	50.4	43.6	56.0	0.0%	Bush	yes
ND	3		-5.2	3.63%	0.0%	32.9	65.5	35.5	62.9	8.0%	Kerry	
												
OH	20	20	10.9	2.21%	100%	54.2	45.4	48.7	50.8	0.0%	Bush	yes
OK	7		-1.9	2.38%	0.0%	33.5	66.5	34.4	65.6	22.2%	Kerry	
OR	7		0	3.00%	80%	51.3	47.2	51.6	47.4	42.2%	Kerry	
PA	21	21	8.8	2.22%	100%	55.3	44.0	51.0	48.5	0.0%	Bush	yes
RI	4	4	4.7	3.30%	100%	61.8	36.3	59.6	38.8	9.3%	Bush	
												
SC	8		10	2.34%	0.0%	45.9	53.0	41.0	58.1	0.0%	Bush	yes
SD	3		-4.2	2.45%	0.0%	36.3	62.0	38.4	59.9	4.3%	Kerry	
TN	11		0.5	2.29%	0.0%	42.8	56.5	42.5	56.8	40.7%	Bush	
TX	34		4.8	2.31%	0.0%	40.6	58.7	38.2	61.1	2.2%	Bush	yes
UT	5		6.4	3.18%	0.0%	29.2	68.3	26.0	71.6	2.5%	Bush	
												
VT	3	3	15	3.56%	100%	66.4	31.3	59.2	39.0	0.0%	Bush	yes
VA	13	13	7.9	2.59%	33%	49.4	49.7	45.6	53.8	0.2%	Bush	yes
WA	11	11	8.4	2.12%	100%	57.0	41.4	52.9	45.7	0.0%	Bush	yes
WV	5		-5.8	2.35%	0.0%	40.3	59.0	43.2	56.1	0.8%	Kerry	
WI	10	10	4.7	2.08%	97%	52.0	47.0	49.8	49.4	1.7%	Bush	yes
WY	3		4.3	3.50%	0.0%	31.2	66.7	29.1	69.0	12.3%	Bush	
												
_________________________________________________________________________												

INTERACTIVE ELECTION SIMULATION (see link below)
STATE PRE-ELECTION AND EXIT POLLS
200 ELECTION TRIAL SAMPLE RUN
	
Input Assumptions:
Undecided to Kerry: 75%								
Cluster Effect    : 30%									

Kerry  Electoral Vote	
Mean      314
Median    318
Maximum   359
Minimum   251
													
Win Prob: 97.5%
														
		Pre	Exit 	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Kerry	Kerry	Exceed MoE Discrepancy	
	Wtd.	MoE	MoE	Pre	Pre	Exit 	Exit	PreSim	ExitSim	Final	Pre	Exit	Pre	Exit
	Average	3.92	3.17	47.69	47.02	51.81	47.20	50.72	51.48	48.28	20	24	(2.44)	(3.20)
	EV													
AL	9	3.91	4.64	39	57	42.5	56.8	41.6	41.1	36.9	AL	-	-4.7	-4.3
AK	3	3.88	4.14	30	57	40.3	56.3	41.9	41.9	35.6	AK	AK	-6.3	-6.3
AR	6	3.96	2.95	45	50	44.8	52.6	44.3	44.4	44.6	-	-	0.2	0.1
AZ	10	3.96	3.40	46	48	46.7	54.1	44.3	44.4	44.4	-	-	0.1	0.0
CA	55	3.93	2.89	49	42	59.8	38.9	58.7	58.7	54.4	CA	CA	-4.3	-4.3
											-	-		
CO	9	3.96	2.54	47	48	50.1	48.6	48.9	48.9	47.1	-	-	-1.8	-1.8
CT	7	3.93	4.25	52	42	62.2	36.1	63.2	63.1	54.3	CT	CT	-8.8	-8.8
DE	3	3.91	4.53	45	38	61.3	37.8	62.0	62.1	53.4	DE	DE	-8.6	-8.8
DC	3	2.73	2.50	78	11	90.9	7.6	90.7	90.7	89.4	-	-	-1.3	-1.3
FL	27	3.96	2.39	50	47	50.9	48.3	50.5	50.4	47.1	-	FL	-3.3	-3.3
											-	-		
GA	15	3.95	3.22	42	52	42.5	56.9	43.6	43.5	41.4	-	-	-2.2	-2.1
HI	4	3.96	5.69	45	45	56.4	42.9	47.7	59.8	54.0	HI	HI	6.3	-5.8
ID	4	3.85	5.08	30	59	30.8	67.9	34.5	29.1	30.3	ID	-	-4.2	1.1
IL	21	3.92	3.38	54	42	57.0	42.3	53.6	55.6	54.8	-	-	1.2	-0.8
IN	11	3.90	4.12	39	58	40.0	59.2	34.7	41.0	39.3	IN	-	4.5	-1.7
											-	-		
IA	7	3.94	2.55	50	44	50.7	48.4	52.0	51.9	49.3	-	IA	-2.7	-2.6
KS	6	3.87	4.74	37	60	37.5	61.2	37.9	39.5	36.6	-	-	-1.3	-2.9
KY	8	3.92	3.89	39	56	39.6	59.6	38.9	39.7	39.7	-	-	0.7	0.0
LA	9	3.96	3.10	40	48	44.1	54.8	46.5	43.0	42.3	LA	-	-4.2	-0.7
ME	4	3.91	2.86	50	39	55.5	42.7	57.0	55.2	53.6	-	-	-3.5	-1.6
											-	-		
MD	10	3.93	3.99	54	43	60.0	38.9	58.4	58.2	56.0	-	-	-2.4	-2.2
MA	12	3.60	4.03	64	27	64.8	33.9	69.4	67.4	62.1	MA	MA	-7.3	-5.4
MI	17	3.95	2.57	52	45	54.4	44.7	53.6	55.5	51.2	-	MI	-2.4	-4.3
MN	10	3.94	2.72	52	44	55.7	43.0	54.3	55.8	51.2	-	MN	-3.1	-4.6
MS	6	3.95	4.47	42	51	45.8	53.4	47.2	41.7	40.2	MS	-	-6.9	-1.5
											-	-		
MO	11	3.96	2.74	44	49	49.0	50.4	47.5	47.4	46.1	-	-	-1.4	-1.3
MT	3	3.90	4.92	36	57	37.7	60.0	42.4	37.1	38.6	-	-	-3.9	1.4
NE	5	3.83	4.38	32	61	36.7	61.8	34.9	36.6	32.7	-	-	-2.2	-3.9
NV	5	3.96	2.77	49	49	52.9	45.4	51.0	53.9	48.1	-	NV	-3.0	-5.8
NH	4	3.96	2.94	47	47	57.0	42.1	50.8	57.4	50.4	-	NH	-0.4	-7.0
											-	-		
NJ	15	3.93	3.24	50	42	57.8	41.4	56.8	56.7	52.9	-	NJ	-3.8	-3.8
NM	5	3.96	2.88	49	49	52.9	45.9	50.5	52.8	49.0	-	NM	-1.5	-3.7
NY	31	3.88	3.21	57	39	64.1	34.4	56.3	62.9	58.4	-	NY	2.1	-4.5
NC	15	3.96	2.73	47	50	49.2	50.4	45.9	49.8	43.6	-	NC	-2.3	-6.2
ND	3	3.92	4.72	35	55	32.9	65.5	44.1	35.2	35.5	ND	-	-8.6	0.3
											-	-		
OH	20	3.96	2.87	50	47	54.2	45.4	51.4	54.4	48.7	-	OH	-2.7	-5.7
OK	7	3.81	3.09	28	61	33.5	66.5	39.6	32.7	34.4	OK	-	-5.2	1.7
OR	7	3.94	3.90	50	44	51.3	47.2	53.7	51.6	51.6	-	-	-2.1	0.0
PA	21	3.95	2.89	50	45	55.3	44.0	51.6	55.1	51.0	-	PA	-0.7	-4.2
RI	4	3.84	4.29	56	36	61.8	36.3	63.5	62.7	59.6	RI	-	-4.0	-3.1
											-	-		
SC	8	3.93	3.05	42	55	45.9	53.0	46.9	48.2	41.0	SC	SC	-5.9	-7.3
SD	3	3.95	3.19	42	52	36.3	62.0	43.9	34.8	38.4	SD	SD	-5.4	3.6
TN	11	3.96	2.98	47	50	42.8	56.5	52.0	40.2	42.5	TN	-	-9.5	2.4
TX	34	3.88	3.01	37	59	40.6	58.7	39.5	40.3	38.2	-	-	-1.3	-2.1
UT	5	3.60	4.13	24	69	29.2	68.3	28.4	26.9	26.0	-	-	-2.4	-0.9
											-	-		
VT	3	3.91	4.62	53	40	66.4	31.3	54.7	68.1	59.2	VT	VT	4.5	-8.9
VA	13	3.96	3.37	47	51	49.4	49.7	47.6	52.1	45.6	-	VA	-2.0	-6.6
WA	11	3.94	2.75	52	44	57.0	41.4	52.5	56.5	52.9	-	WA	0.3	-3.6
WV	5	3.96	3.06	45	49	40.3	59.0	48.4	40.0	43.2	WV	WV	-5.2	3.2
WI	10	3.94	2.70	51	44	52.0	47.0	55.5	49.7	49.8	WI	-	-5.7	0.1
WY	3	3.74	4.55	29	65	31.2	66.7	29.8	29.2	29.1	-	-	-0.7	-0.1

_________________________________________________________________________


		STATE EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER (WPE)									
											
Given: 
Recorded vote
            2-Party     Total							
	Kerry 48.76%	48.27%
	Bush	51.24%	50.72%

2- State exit poll average response rate	
3- State exit poll average WPE								
											
Calculate:	TRUE VOTE
            2-Party     Total							
	Kerry 52.30%	51.77%
	Bush	47.70%	47.21%							
	WPE  -6.77% 	-7.08%
											
	PROBABILITY of 3.54% discrepancy between exit poll and recorded vote:
	1 in	3.5 trillion							
											
	WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)
	Response	53.32%								
											
	REFUSER SHARE REQUIRED TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE
	Kerry	44.86%								
	Bush	55.14%								
											
											
	                             2-party TRUE VOTE          Deviation	
State	Votes	Weight		RESP.	Kerry	Pct	Bush	Pct	Votes	Pct	WPE
Total	121,056	 100%		53.32%	63,314	52.30%	57,741	47.70%	-4287	-6.77%	-7.08%
											
HIGH BUSH											
UT	905	0.75%		59.6%	270	29.9%	635	70.1%	-29	-10.7%	-6.4%
WY	238	0.20%		66.0%	76	31.8%	163	68.2%	-5	-6.8%	-4.3%
ID	590	0.49%		63.2%	184	31.2%	406	68.8%	-3	-1.6%	-1.0%
NE	767	0.63%		66.5%	285	37.2%	482	62.8%	-31	-10.9%	-8.1%
OK	1,464	1.21%		53.2%	490	33.5%	974	66.5%	14	2.8%	1.9%
											
BUSH											
ND	308	0.25%		63.0%	103	33.5%	205	66.5%	8	7.8%	5.2%
AK	302	0.25%		53.2%	126	41.6%	176	58.4%	-14	-11.5%	-9.6%
AL	1,870	1.55%		58.3%	800	42.8%	1,071	57.2%	-106	-13.2%	-11.3%
KS	1,171	0.97%		64.5%	445	38.0%	726	62.0%	-10	-2.2%	-1.7%
TX	7,360	6.08%		58.3%	3,009	40.9%	4,350	59.1%	-177	-5.9%	-4.8%
											
SD	382	0.32%		42.7%	141	37.0%	241	63.0%	8	5.7%	4.2%
MT	440	0.36%		63.0%	170	38.6%	270	61.4%	4	2.3%	1.8%
IN	2,448	2.02%		38.6%	987	40.3%	1,461	59.7%	-18	-1.9%	-1.5%
KY	1,782	1.47%		52.6%	712	39.9%	1,070	60.1%	1	0.1%	0.1%
MS	1,130	0.93%		49.6%	522	46.1%	609	53.9%	-64	-12.2%	-11.3%
											
SC	1,600	1.32%		59.4%	742	46.4%	858	53.6%	-80	-10.8%	-10.0%
GA	3,280	2.71%		63.9%	1,402	42.7%	1,878	57.3%	-36	-2.6%	-2.2%
LA	1,922	1.59%		47.8%	857	44.6%	1,066	55.4%	-37	-4.3%	-3.8%
TN	2,421	2.00%		66.7%	1,043	43.1%	1,378	56.9%	-6	-0.6%	-0.5%
WV	750	0.62%		48.7%	305	40.6%	446	59.4%	22	7.1%	5.8%
											
NC	3,487	2.88%		52.6%	1,723	49.4%	1,764	50.6%	-197	-11.4%	-11.3%
AZ	1,998	1.65%		57.3%	939	47.0%	1,058	53.0%	-46	-4.9%	-4.6%
AR	1,043	0.86%		60.2%	473	45.3%	571	54.7%	-3	-0.6%	-0.5%
VA	3,172	2.62%		56.4%	1,580	49.8%	1,592	50.2%	-125	-7.9%	-7.9%
MO	2,715	2.24%		47.0%	1,338	49.3%	1,377	50.7%	-79	-5.9%	-5.8%
											
EVEN											
FL	7,548	6.24%		49.0%	3,870	51.3%	3,678	48.7%	-287	-7.4%	-7.6%
CO	2,103	1.74%		55.5%	1,066	50.7%	1,037	49.3%	-64	-6.0%	-6.1%
NV	816	0.67%		49.1%	438	53.7%	377	46.3%	-41	-9.4%	-10.1%
OH	5,599	4.62%		45.0%	3,045	54.4%	2,554	45.6%	-305	-10.0%	-10.9%
NM	748	0.62%		56.9%	400	53.5%	348	46.5%	-29	-7.3%	-7.8%
											
IA	1,494	1.23%		52.6%	764	51.2%	730	48.8%	-22	-2.9%	-3.0%
WI	2,968	2.45%		55.3%	1,559	52.5%	1,408	47.5%	-70	-4.5%	-4.7%
NH	672	0.55%		44.0%	386	57.5%	286	42.5%	-46	-11.8%	-13.6%
PA	5,732	4.73%		46.8%	3,190	55.7%	2,542	44.3%	-252	-7.9%	-8.8%
MI	4,793	3.96%		50.2%	2,630	54.9%	2,163	45.1%	-151	-5.7%	-6.3%
											
MN	2,792	2.31%		45.3%	1,575	56.4%	1,217	43.6%	-130	-8.2%	-9.3%
OR	1,810	1.50%		53.0%	943	52.1%	867	47.9%	0	0.0%	0.0%
											
KERRY											
NJ	3,581	2.96%		59.7%	2,085	58.2%	1,496	41.8%	-174	-8.3%	-9.7%
WA	2,815	2.33%		53.8%	1,628	57.8%	1,187	42.2%	-118	-7.3%	-8.4%
DE	372	0.31%		57.5%	230	61.8%	142	38.2%	-30	-12.9%	-15.9%
HI	426	0.35%		53.4%	242	56.8%	184	43.2%	-10	-4.1%	-4.7%
ME	727	0.60%		61.3%	411	56.5%	316	43.5%	-14	-3.4%	-3.8%
											
CA	12,255	10.12%	       50.5%	7,413	60.5%	4,842	39.5%	-668	-9.0%	-10.9%
IL	5,239	4.33%		51.9%	3,007	57.4%	2,231	42.6%	-115	-3.8%	-4.4%
CT	1,551	1.28%		51.0%	979	63.1%	572	36.9%	-122	-12.4%	-15.7%
MD	2,359	1.95%		59.4%	1,430	60.6%	929	39.4%	-96	-6.7%	-8.1%
											
HIGH KERRY											
NY	7,277	6.01%		57.9%	4,729	65.0%	2,548	35.0%	-415	-8.8%	-11.4%
VT	305	0.25%		53.1%	207	67.8%	98	32.2%	-23	-11.1%	-15.0%
RI	429	0.35%		44.2%	270	62.9%	159	37.1%	-10	-3.7%	-4.7%
MA	2,875	2.37%		56.5%	1,887	65.6%	988	34.4%	-83	-4.4%	-5.8%
DC	224	0.19%		53.5%	207	92.2%	17	7.8%	-4	-1.8%	-3.4%
											
											
											
	                             2-party TRUE VOTE          Deviation	
State	Votes	Weight		RESP.	Kerry	Pct	Bush	Pct	Votes	Pct	WPE
Total	121,056	 100%		53.32%	63,314	52.30%	57,741	47.70%	-4287	-6.77%	-7.08%

HBUSH	3,965	3.3%		61.7%	1,306	32.7%	2,659	67.3%	-54	-5.4%	-3.58%
BUSH	39,582	32.7%		55.2%	17,415	42.8%	22,167	57.2%	-955	-3.6%	-3.49%
EVEN	37,073	30.6%		50.2%	19,868	53.7%	17,205	46.3%	-1,397	-6.8%	-7.35%
KERRY	29,326	24.2%		55.4%	17,426	59.2%	11,900	40.8%	-1,346	-7.5%	-9.07%
HKERRY	11,110	9.2%		53.0%	7,300	70.7%	3,810	29.3%	-535	-6.0%	-8.06%
											

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.