1988-2004 Election Analysis: The Submerging  Democratic Majority

The Democrats actually won all FIVE elections by an average 9 MILLION vote
margin. That’s the True Emerging Democratic Majority. Don't believe it? Run the
numbers yourself. 

This analysis is based on the 1988-2004 Election Calculator model. The model
estimates the number of returning voters from the previous election by
adjusting recorded vote totals (adding uncounted votes and subtracting
mortality). An estimated turnout percentage is applied to the adjusted totals.
As preliminary National Exit Poll vote shares were not available for 1988-2000,
Final NEP shares (which were matched to the recorded vote) were assumed as the
base case. In 2004, 12:22am update "pristine" shares were available
and used as the base case. 

The model used Census-reported total votes cast as the base case assumption.
The pool of potential returning voters was assumed to include all who cast
votes, rather than just those whose votes were recorded.  Uncounted vote rates
based on the Census are much higher than the assumed 3.0% rate in prior models.
Another assumption change is the mortality rate. Annual voter mortality,
estimated as 1.22-1.30%, is more accurate than prior models which assumed the
total US 0.87% mortality rate. 

The new base case assumptions had the effect of increasing the Democratic vote
share calculated in the prior True Vote model. For example, the Election
Calculator indicates that Kerry won by 53.4-45.5% (9.9 million votes). He won
the earlier True Vote model by 52.6-46.4%.

Following are key results based on AVERAGE CALCULATED 1988-2004 TRUE VOTE
SHARES:
- The Dem share was 3.8% HIGHER than the RECORDED share.
- The GOP share was 3.3% LOWER than the RECORDED share.
- The Dem share was 1.3% HIGHER than the PRELIMINARY Exit Poll.
- The GOP share was 0.2% HIGHER than the PRELIMINARY Exit Poll.

Millions of votes are uncounted in every election. Approximately 75% of them
are Democratic. Total (Census) votes cast and Recorded vote totals are shown
below. 

Voter turnout of prior election Dem, GOP and Other voters is calculated as: 
Turnout = prior election (recorded vote + uncounted votes - voter deaths)*
voter turnout percentage

The True vote for the Dem, GOP and Other candidate is calculated as: 
True Vote = shares of returning (Dem + GOP + Other + New voters)

THE ELECTION CALCULATOR DOES NOT INCLUDE MASSIVE VOTER DISENFRANCHISEMENT WHICH
PREVENTS MILLIONS OF DEMOCRATS FROM VOTING. THE DEMOCRATS WOULD WIN EVERY
ELECTION BY A LANDSLIDE WERE IT NOT FOR THREE MAJOR ELECTION FRAUD COMPONENTS:
VOTER DISENFRANCHISEMENT, UNCOUNTED AND SWITCHED VOTES.

										
Summary Statistics (1988-2004)										
										
										
        Calculated         									
        TRUE Vote	         Exit Poll	       Recorded		Calculated 
	Dem	Rep		Dem	Rep		Dem	Rep		Margin (mil)
Avg	50.9%	42.9%		49.7%	42.7%		47.1%	46.2%		9.05
										
2004	53.4%	45.5%		51.8%	47.2%		48.3%	50.7%		9.89
2000	51.1%	46.0%		48.5%	46.2%		48.4%	47.9%		5.66
1996	52.0%	39.3%		52.2%	37.5%		49.9%	41.4%		13.36
1992	47.9%	35.0%		46.0%	33.1%		43.3%	37.7%		14.71
1988	50.2%	48.7%		49.8%	49.3%		45.6%	53.4%		1.61
										
										
1988-2004 Avg	Total	Dem	Rep	Other	Margin		Dem	Rep	Other	Margin
Calculated	111.5	56.86	47.81	6.86	9.05		50.9%	42.9%	6.2%	8.0%
Recorded	102.9	48.47	47.66	6.74	0.81		47.1%	46.2%	6.7%	0.9%
Exit poll	102.9	51.09	44.03	7.93	7.06		49.7%	42.7%	7.9%	7.0%
Discrepancies										
Calc - Rec	8.7	8.39	0.15	0.12	8.24		3.8%	-3.3%	-0.5%	7.1%
Calc - Exit	      5.76	3.78	-1.06	1.98		1.3%	0.2%	-1.7%	1.0%
Exit - Rec		2.62	-3.63	1.19	6.25		2.6%	-3.6%	1.2%	6.1%
										
										
										
2004	       Vote	Kerry	Bush	Other	Margin		Kerry	Bush	Other	Margin
Calculated	125.74	67.2	57.3	1.3	9.9		53.4%	45.5%	1.0%	7.9%
Recorded	122.30	59.0	62.0	1.2	-3.0		48.3%	50.7%	1.0%	-2.5%
Exit poll	122.30	63.4	57.7	1.2	5.6		51.8%	47.2%	1.0%	4.6%
Discrepancies										
Calc - Rec	3.44	8.1	-4.8	0.1	12.9		5.1%	-5.2%	0.0%	10.3%
Calc - Exit		3.8	-0.5	0.1	4.3		1.6%	-1.7%	0.0%	3.3%
Exit  - Rec		4.3	-4.3	0.0	8.6		3.5%	-3.5%	0.0%	7.1%
										
2000	       Vote	Gore	Bush	Other	Margin		Gore	Bush	Other	Margin
Calculated	110.80	56.6	50.9	3.3	5.7		51.1%	46.0%	3.0%	5.1%
Recorded	105.42	51.0	50.5	4.0	0.5		48.4%	47.9%	3.8%	0.5%
Exit poll	105.42	51.1	48.7	5.6	2.4		48.5%	46.2%	5.3%	2.3%
Discrepancies										
Calc - Rec	5.38	5.6	0.5	-0.7	5.1		2.7%	-1.9%	-0.8%	4.6%
Calc - Exit		5.5	2.2	-2.3	3.2		2.6%	-0.2%	-2.3%	2.8%
Exit - Rec		0.1	-1.8	1.6	1.9		0.1%	-1.7%	1.5%	1.8%
										
1996	       Vote	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Margin		Clinton	Dole	Perot	Margin
Calculated	105.00	54.6	41.2	9.2	13.4		52.0%	39.3%	8.7%	12.7%
Recorded	91.28	45.6	37.8	7.9	7.8		49.9%	41.4%	8.6%	8.5%
Exit poll	91.28	47.6	34.2	10.3	13.4		52.2%	37.5%	11.3%	14.7%
Discrepancies										
Calc - Rec	13.72	9.0	3.4	1.3	5.6		2.05%	-2.16%	0.11%	4.21%
Calc - Exit		6.9	7.0	-1.1	-0.1		-0.21%	1.77%	-2.57%	-1.98%
Exit - Rec		2.1	-3.6	2.4	5.6		2.25%	-3.93%	2.68%	6.19%
										
1992	       Vote	Clinton	Bush	Perot	Margin		Clinton	Bush	Perot	Margin
Calculated	113.90	54.6	39.9	19.4	14.7		47.9%	35.0%	17.0%	12.9%
Recorded	103.75	44.9	39.1	19.7	5.8		43.3%	37.7%	19.0%	5.6%
Exit poll	103.75	47.7	34.3	21.7	13.4		46.0%	33.1%	20.9%	12.9%
Discrepancies										
Calc - Rec	10.15	9.7	0.8	-0.3	8.9		4.6%	-2.7%	-2.0%	7.3%
Calc - Exit		6.9	5.5	-2.3	1.3		1.9%	1.9%	-3.9%	0.0%
Exit - Rec		2.8	-4.8	1.9	7.6		2.7%	-4.6%	1.9%	7.3%
										
1988	      Vote	Dukakis	Bush	Other	Margin		Dukakis	Bush	Other	Margin
Calculated	102.20	51.3	49.7	1.1	1.6		50.2%	48.7%	1.1%	1.6%
Recorded	91.60	41.8	48.9	0.9	-7.1		45.6%	53.4%	1.0%	-7.7%
Exit poll	91.60	45.6	45.2	0.8	0.5		49.8%	49.3%	0.9%	0.5%
Discrepancies										
Calc - Rec	10.60	9.5	0.8	0.2	8.7		4.6%	-4.7%	0.1%	9.3%
Calc - Exit		5.7	4.6	0.3	1.2		0.4%	-0.6%	0.2%	1.1%
Exit - Rec		3.8	-3.7	-0.1	7.5		4.2%	-4.1%	-0.1%	8.2%
										


TRUE VOTE CALCULATION										
										
2004										
Voted2k	  Vote	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Kerry	Bush	Other	
DNV	  25.6	20.4%	14.60	10.50	0.51		57.0%	41.0%	2.0%	
Gore	  49.7	39.5%	45.22	3.98	0.50		91.0%	8.0%	1.0%	
Bush	  46.6	37.1%	4.66	41.95	0.00		10.0%	90.0%	0.0%	
Other	   3.8	3.0%	2.68	0.84	0.31		70.0%	22.0%	8.0%	
										
Total	 125.7	100.0%	67.16	57.26	1.32		53.4%	45.5%	1.0%	
										
										
2000										
Voted96	  Vote	Weight	Gore	Bush	Other		Gore	Bush	Other	
DNV	  15.0	13.5%	7.80	6.45	0.75		52.0%	43.0%	5.0%	
Clinton	  51.1	46.2%	41.94	7.67	1.53		82.0%	15.0%	3.0%	
Dole	  36.8	33.3%	2.95	33.53	0.37		8.0%	91.0%	1.0%	
Perot	   7.8	7.0%	3.90	3.28	0.62		50.0%	42.0%	8.0%	
										
Total	 110.8	100.0%	56.59	50.93	3.28		51.1%	46.0%	3.0%	
										
										
1996									
Voted92	  Vote	Weight	Clinton	Dole	Perot		Clinton	Dole	Perot
DNV	   5.5	5.2%	2.97	1.87	0.66		54.0%	34.0%	12.0%
Clinton	  45.7	43.5%	38.83	4.11	2.74		85.0%	9.0%	6.0%
Dole	  35.7	34.0%	4.64	28.91	2.14		13.0%	81.0%	6.0%
Perot	  18.1	17.3%	8.16	6.35	3.63		45.0%	35.0%	20.0%
									
Total	 105.0	100.0%	54.59	41.24	9.17		52.0%	39.3%	8.7%
									
									
1992									
Voted88	  Vote	Weight	Clinton	Bush	Perot		Clinton	Bush	Perot
DNV	  20.8	18.3%	9.57	6.66	4.58		46.0%	32.0%	22.0%
Dukakis	  45.3	39.7%	37.56	2.26	5.43		83.0%	5.0%	12.0%
Bush	  47.0	41.3%	7.05	30.56	9.40		15.0%	65.0%	20.0%
Other	   0.8	0.7%	0.41	0.41	0.00		50.0%	50.0%	0.0%
									
Total	 113.9	100.0%	54.60	39.89	19.41		47.9%	35.0%	17.0%
									
									
1988									
Voted84	  Vote	Weight	Dukakis	Bush	Other		Dukakis	Bush	Other
DNV	  11.4	11.1%	5.36	5.81	0.23		47.0%	51.0%	2.0%
Mondale	  39.4	38.5%	36.21	2.76	0.39		92.0%	7.0%	1.0%
Reagan	  51.4	50.3%	9.78	41.16	0.51		19.0%	80.0%	1.0%
									
Total	 102.2	100.0%	51.34	49.72	1.14		50.2%	48.7%	1.1%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.