Progressive Independent - Viewing topic

An oasis of independent thought

.... A New Day Is Dawning ...

JOIN THE BLUE REVOLUTION - Blue Donor stars for this year's fundrive!!

Click here to view: The Impact of Violence in Gaza || Click here to donate to Gaza

Sat Jul 31st 2010, 07:04 AM (-8 GMT)

Top

Top Forums

Elections & Voting Rights

Welcome to our newest member 4Kaster

1847 registered members | First-time visitor? Please register

A Smoking Gun from Scoop: "Election 2004: The Urban Legend".


Login	FAQ	Search	Read New	Guest Options	Calendar

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Original Post: A Smoking Gun from Scoop: "Election 2004: The Urban Legend".

TruthIsAll

Click to send a private message to this member

Click to add this member to your buddy list

Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Fri Jun-15-07 02:17 AM
Original Post

Edited by TruthIsAll on Sun Feb-01-09 10:15 AM

Another 2004 Election Smoking Gun has just been posted on Scoop: "Election 2004: The Urban Legend". Credit the Triple A bloggers autorank, althecat and anaxarchos for this masterpiece. It exposes the implausible scenario that Bush's urban share (in Democratic strongholds) would INCREASE by 9% while his small town/rural share (in Republican strongholds) would DECLINE by 3%.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

The Urban Legend article was the motivation for my analysis of the NEP Location demographic. The objective was to compare the preliminary 7:33pm update (11027 respondents)and the 2:04pm Final. Kerry led at 7:33pm by 50.5-47.6% (Table 4) but lost the 2pm Final (Table 2) which was FORCED to MATCH the recorded vote count by inflating Bush's vote shares. Urban and suburban locations were the prime targets. Vote share inflation occurred in EVERY demographic category.

Another objective was to determine a plausible combination of vote shares for each of the five location categories. The 7:33pm NEP "Location-size" category vote shares were adjusted (Table 5) to match the weight-adjusted 12:22am NEP "Voted 2000" category (Table 7). Kerry won the True Vote by 7.7m (52.6-46.4%). A sensitivity analysis table displays the effects of various Urban and Small Town/Rural vote share scenarios on Kerry's True Vote.

These are the relevant NEP statistics:

Final 2000 NEP (Table 1):
Gore urban margin: 7.8m
Bush suburban margin: 0.9m
Bush small town/rural margin:6.4m

Final 2004 NEP (Table 2):
Kerry urban margin: 3.5m (-4.3m)
Bush suburban margin: 2.8m (+1.9m)
Bush small town/rural margin: 3.9m (-2.5m)

7:33pm 2004 NEP (Table 4)
Kerry urban margin: 5.9m (-1.9m)
Kerry suburban margin: 0.0m (+0.9m)
Bush small town/rural margin: 2.3m (-4.1m)

2004 True Vote (Table 5):
Kerry urban margin: 8.2m (+0.4m)
Kerry suburban margin: 1.7m (+2.6m)
Bush small town/rural margin: 2.1m (-4.3m)

Note these anomalies from 2000 to 2004:
Change in Final NEP Bush shares from 2000 to 2004:
1. 9% INCREASE in the URBAN vote (Democratic strongholds)
2. 3% INCREASE in the SUBURBAN vote (trending Democratic)
3. 3% DECREASE in the SMALL TOWN/RURAL vote (Republican strongholds)

The graphs display the Bush vote shares by community size.

Vote share (5 categories)

Vote share (3 categories and national)

Vote count (in millions)

Vote change from 2000 (in millions)

Vote percentage change from 2000

____________________________________________________________________


  
Table 1									
2000 Final NEP (matched to recorded vote)
     			
			      Vote Share		Votes (mil.)			
	     Votes	Mix	Gore	Bush	Nader	Gore	Bush	Other	Margin
Big Cities 	9.4	9%	71%	26%	3%	6.7	2.5	0.3	4.24
Small Cities    21.0	20%	57%	40%	3%	11.9	8.4	0.6	3.56
Suburbs 	45.0	43%	47%	49%	4%	21.2	22.1	1.8	-0.90
Small Towns	5.2	5%	38%	59%	3%	2.0	3.1	0.2	-1.10
Rural Areas	24.1	23%	37%	59%	4%	8.9	14.2	1.0	-5.30
									
Total	       104.8	100%	48.4%	47.9%	3.7%	50.7	50.2	3.8	0.50
									
Urban	      30.4	29%	61%	36%	3%	18.6	10.8	0.9	7.81
Suburbs       45.0	43%	47%	49%	4%	21.2	22.1	1.8	-0.90
SmTwn/Rural   29.3	28%	37%	59%	4%	10.9	17.3	1.1	-6.40
									
Total	     104.8	100%	48.4%	47.9%	3.7%	50.7	50.2	3.8	0.50
									
____________________________________________________________________

									
Table 2									
2004 Final NEP (matched to recorded vote)			
11/03 at 2:04pm
   
			      Vote Share		Votes (mil.)			
	     Votes	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Margin
Big Cities 	15.9	13%	61%	39%	0%	9.7	6.2	0.0	3.5
Small Cities	22.0	18%	49%	49%	2%	10.8	10.8	0.4	0.0
Suburbs 	55.0	45%	47%	52%	1%	25.9	28.6	0.6	-2.8
Small Towns	9.8	8%	48%	50%	2%	4.7	4.9	0.2	-0.2
Rural Areas	19.6	16%	40%	59%	1%	7.8	11.5	0.2	-3.7
									
Total	     122.3	100%	48.1%	50.7%	1.1%	58.9	62.0	1.4	-3.2
									
Urban	      37.9	31%	54%	45%	1.2%	20.5	17.0	0.4	3.5
Suburbs     55.0	45%	47%	52%	1.0%	25.9	28.6	0.6	-2.8
SmTwn/Rural 29.4	24%	43%	56%	1.3%	12.5	16.4	0.4	-3.9
									
Total	     122.3	100%	48.1%	50.7%	1.1%	58.9	62.0	1.4	-3.2
									
____________________________________________________________________

 									
Table 3									
Final NEP Vote share Changes: 2000 to 2004
 
		      Vote Share		Votes (mil.)			
	       Votes	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	 Margin
Big Cities 	6.5	4%	-10%	13%	-3%	3.0	3.7	-0.3	-0.7
Small Cities    1.1	-2%	-8%	9%	-1%	-1.2	2.4	-0.2	-3.6
Suburbs 	10.0	2%	0%	3%	-3%	4.7	6.6	-1.3	-1.9
Small Towns	4.5	3%	10%	-9%	-1%	2.7	1.8	0.0	0.9
Rural Areas	-4.5	-7%	3%	0%	-3%	-1.1	-2.7	-0.8	1.6
									
Change	        17.6 	0%	-5%	16%	-11%	8.2	11.8	-2.5	-3.7
									
Urban	        7.5	2%	-7%	9%	-2%	1.8	6.2	-0.5	-4.3
Suburb 	       10.0	2%	0%	3%	-3%	4.7	6.6	-1.3	-1.9
SmTwn/Rural     0.0	-4%	5%	-3%	-2%	1.6	-0.9	-0.7	2.5
									
Change	       17.6 	0%	-2%	9%	-7%	8.2	11.8	-2.5	-3.7
									
____________________________________________________________________
									
 
Table 4									
2004 NEP (11027 respondents)									
11/02 at 7:33pm									

5 Categories
 		      Vote Share		Votes (mil.)			
	        Votes	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Margin
Big Cities 	15.9	13%	64%	35%	1%	10.2	5.6	0.2	4.6
Small Cities	22.0	18%	52%	46%	2%	11.4	10.1	0.4	1.3
Suburbs 	55.0	45%	49%	49%	2%	27.0	27.0	1.1	0.0
Small Towns	9.8	8%	51%	47%	2%	5.0	4.6	0.2	0.4
Rural Areas	19.6	16%	42%	56%	2%	8.2	11.0	0.4	-2.7
									
Total	       122.3	100%	50.5%	47.6%	1.9%	61.8	58.2	2.3	3.6
 

3 Categories									
 
	     Votes	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Margin
Urban	      37.9	31%	57%	41%	2%	21.6	15.7	0.6	5.9
Suburb 	      55.0	45%	49%	49%	2%	27.0	27.0	1.1	0.0
SmTwn/Rural   29.4	24%	45%	53%	2%	13.2	15.6	0.6	-2.3
									
Total	     122.3	100%	50.5%	47.6%	1.9%	61.8	58.2	2.3	3.6

 

                  Sensitivity Analysis
 
			   Kerry Urban Share						
	SmTwn	54%	55%	56%	57%	58%	59%	60%	
      Rural        Kerry National Share  
	41%	48.6%	48.9%	49.3%	49.6%	49.9%	50.2%	50.5%	
	42%	48.9%	49.2%	49.5%	49.8%	50.1%	50.4%	50.7%	
	43%	49.1%	49.4%	49.7%	50.0%	50.4%	50.7%	51.0%	
	44%	49.4%	49.7%	50.0%	50.3%	50.6%	50.9%	51.2%	
	45%	49.6%	49.9%	50.2%	50.5%	50.8%	51.1%	51.5%	
	46%	49.8%	50.1%	50.5%	50.8%	51.1%	51.4%	51.7%	

____________________________________________________________________
         									
      
Table 5									
2004 NEP (adjusted)									
Size of Community									

Vote shares adjusted to match True Vote (Table 7)
125.74m total votes cast (Census)
  
			      Vote Share		Votes (mil.)			
	      Votes	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	Margin
Big Cities 	16.35	13%	67%	32%	1%	10.95	5.23	0.16	5.72
Small Cities    22.63	18%	55%	44%	1%	12.45	9.96	0.23	2.49
Suburbs 	56.58	45%	51%	48%	1%	28.86	27.16	0.57	1.70
Small Towns	10.06	8%	52%	47%	1%	5.23	4.73	0.10	0.50
Rural	        20.12	16%	43%	56%	1%	8.65	11.27	0.20	-2.62
    									
Total	       125.74	100%	52.6%	46.4%	1%	66.14	58.34	1.26	7.80
									
Urban	        38.98	31%	60%	39%	1%	23.40	15.19	0.39	8.21
Suburbs 	56.58	45%	51%	48%	1%	28.86	27.16	0.57	1.70
SmTwn/Rural     30.18	24%	46%	53%	1%	13.88	16.00	0.30	-2.11
    
Total	       125.74	100%	52.6%	46.4%	1.0%	66.14	58.34	1.26	7.80
    
 
                Sensitivity Analysis
  
                Kerry share of Urban			
     SmTwn 	56%	58%	60%	62%	64%
     Rural     Kerry National Share  
      48%	51.8%	52.5%	53.1%	53.7%	54.3%
      47%	51.6%	52.2%	52.8%	53.5%	54.1%
      46%	51.4%	52.0%	52.6%	53.2%	53.8%
      45%	51.1%	51.7%	52.4%	53.0%	53.6%
      44%	50.9%	51.5%	52.1%	52.7%	53.4%
    
____________________________________________________________________

     
Table 6									
Vote Share Summary 

	2000Final	2004Prelim	2004Final	2004 True		
	Gore 	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	
Urban	61%	36%	57%	41%	54%	45%	60%	39%	
Suburb  47%	49%	49%	49%	47%	52%	51%	48%	
Rural	37%	59%	45%	53%	43%	56%	46%	53%	
   
Total	48.4%	47.9%	50.5%	47.6%	48.1%	50.7%	52.6%	46.4%	

____________________________________________________________________
									
 
Table 7									
12:22am NEP True Vote									
Voted  2000									
									
Assumptions:									
125.74m votes cast (2004 Census)

Election 2000 voters:
95% Turnout in 2004
0.87% annual mortality									
		
			Vote Share		Votes (mil.)			
	Votes	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other	
DNV	27.02	21.5%	57%	41%	2%	15.40	11.08	0.54	
Gore	48.08	38.2%	91%	8%	1%	43.75	3.85	0.48	
Bush	47.56	37.8%	10%	90%	0%	4.76	42.80	0.00	
Other	3.08	2.5%	71%	21%	8%	2.19	0.65	0.25	
									
Total	125.74	100%	52.6%	46.4%	1.01%	66.10	58.38	1.27

____________________________________________________________________

This is a table of WPE (Within Precinct Error) by Size of Location.
It was produced by pollsters Edison-Mitofsky in their Jan. 2005 report.

The largest discrepancies (WPE) were in the Suburbs (4.5m) and Cities (3.3m).
The deviations were calculated using
a)the Final NEP (matched to the vote) and
b)the Final NEP with WPE-adjusted location vote shares.

Note the match in vote shares between the 7:33pm NEP (Kerry 51.40-47.47%)
and the WPE-adjusted Final NEP (Kerry 51.73-47.15%).

Location WPE
Size Weight Mean Median Abs 1250 precincts
BigC 13% -7.9 -5.9 12.1 105
SmCit 18% -8.5 -7.7 14.3 236
Suburb 45% -8.1 -7.9 14.3 487
SmTwn 8% -4.9 -5 12.8 126
Rural 16% -3.6 -3.6 13.4 296
Wtd Avg -7.17 -6.68 13.75

7:33pm NEP
(125.7m Census votes cast)

Size Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin
BigCity 16.35 13% 64% 36% 0% 10.5 5.9 0.0 4.6
SmCity 22.63 18% 53% 45% 2% 12.0 10.2 0.5 1.8
Suburbs 56.58 45% 50% 49% 1% 28.3 27.7 0.6 0.6
SmTowns 10.06 8% 52% 46% 2% 5.2 4.6 0.2 0.6
Rural 20.12 16% 43% 56% 1% 8.7 11.3 0.2 -2.6

Total 125.74 100% 51.4% 47.5% 1.1% 64.6 59.7 1.4 4.9

2pm Final NEP
(122.3m recorded votes)

Size Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin
BigCity 15.90 13% 61% 39% 0% 9.7 6.2 0.0 3.5
Sm City 22.01 18% 49% 49% 2% 10.8 10.8 0.4 0.0
Suburbs 55.04 45% 47% 52% 1% 25.9 28.6 0.6 -2.8
Towns 9.78 8% 48% 50% 2% 4.7 4.9 0.2 -0.2
Rural 19.57 16% 40% 59% 1% 7.8 11.5 0.2 -3.7

Total 122.30 100% 48.2% 50.7% 1.1% 58.9 62.0 1.4 -3.2

Final NEP: WPE-adjusted
(Census total votes cast)

Size WPE Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other Margin
BigC -7.9% 16.35 13% 65.0% 35.0% 0% 10.6 5.7 0.0 4.9
SmCit -8.5% 22.63 18% 53.3% 44.7% 2% 12.1 10.1 0.5 1.9
Subur -8.1% 56.58 45% 51.0% 48.0% 1% 28.9 27.1 0.6 1.8
SmTwn -4.9% 10.06 8% 50.5% 47.5% 2% 5.1 4.8 0.2 0.3
Rural -3.6% 20.12 16% 41.8% 57.2% 1% 8.4 11.5 0.2 -3.1

Total -7.17% 125.74 100% 51.7% 47.2% 1.1% 65.0 59.3 1.4 5.8

____________________________________________________________________

EXIT POLL LOCATION SIZE RESPONSE OPTIMIZER
7/22/07 2:01 AM

Given:
1- Recorded vote (Bush 50.73- Kerry 48.27%)
Two-party: Bush 51.24%- Kerry 48.76%
2- Location exit poll response
3- Location "Within Precinct Error" (WPE)
Calculate:
Kerry Vote share (aggregate and location)
Assume Census 125.74m total votes cast

Result:
Two-party: Kerry 52.15 - Bush 47.85%
EXACTLY matched the 1250 partisanship precinct response optimization.

WPE
Size Weight Votes Mean Median Prct Completion rate
BigCity 13% 16.35 -7.9 -5.9 105 0.52
SmallCity 18% 22.63 -8.5 -7.7 236 0.54
Suburbs 45% 56.58 -8.1 -7.9 487 0.53
SmallTown 8% 10.06 -4.9 -5 126 0.57
Rural 16% 20.12 -3.6 -3.6 296 0.55

125.74 -7.17 -6.68 1250 0.54

EXIT POLL Kerry Bush

2-pty share 52.15% 47.85%
Total 51.62% 47.37%
Vote 64.91 59.57

%Deviation -3.39% 3.39%
2-pty Dev -6.50% 7.08%
Vote Dev -5.88 2.47
%Deviation 9.06% -4.15%

PROBABILITY of 3.39% discrepancy:
1 in 65 TRILLION

WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)
Response: 53.98%

PERCENT OF EXIT POLL REFUSERS
Kerry 44.83%
Bush 55.17%

Rural SmTown Sub SmCity BigCity
Prcts 296 126 487 236 105
23.7% 10.1% 39.0% 18.9% 8.4%
Votes 20.12 10.06 56.58 22.63 16.35
16% 8% 45% 18% 13%

Kerry NEP share
12:22am43% 52% 50% 53% 64%
Final 40% 48% 47% 49% 61%
TRUE 40% 50% 49% 59% 73%

RANGE CONSTRAINTS

KERRY WIN%
Min 35% 45% 45% 45% 60%
Max 55% 55% 55% 60% 100%

RESPONSE
Min 55% 57% 53% 54% 52%
Max 55% 57% 53% 54% 52%

ALPHA (K/B)
Min 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
Max 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

WPE
Min -3.6% -4.9% -8.1% -8.5% -7.9%
Max -3.6% -4.9% -8.1% -8.5% -7.9%
E-M -3.6% -4.9% -8.1% -8.5% -7.9%

OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY ......Share Count Diff Vote Count Diff Kerry 52.15% 48.76% -3.39% 64.91 60.69 -4.21 Bush 47.85% 51.24% 3.39% 59.57 63.78 4.21 Diff 4.29% -2.48% -6.77% 5.34 -3.09 -8.43 ..... Rural SmTown Suburb SmCit BigCit Total Prcts 296 126 487 236 105 1250 2-pty 29.48 12.55 48.50 23.50 10.46 124.48 Pct 23.7% 10.1% 39.0% 18.9% 8.4% 100.0% RESP. 55.0% 57.0% 53.0% 54.0% 52.0% 53.98% DevAvg 1.0% 3.0% -1.0% 0.0% -2.0% 0.0% ALPHA K/B 0.792 0.800 0.840 0.835 0.800 0.820 K/50B 39.6 40.0 42.0 41.8 40.0 41.0 DevAvg -3.5% -2.4% 2.4% 1.8% -2.5% 0.0% VOTE Kerry 12.69 6.10 21.82 11.75 8.34 60.69 Pct 43.0% 48.6% 45.0% 50.0% 79.7% 48.76% Bush 16.79 6.45 26.67 11.75 2.12 63.78 Pct 57.0% 51.4% 55.0% 50.0% 20.3% 51.24% RESPONDERS Kerry 13.22 6.41 23.79 12.75 8.75 64.91 Pct 44.8% 51.1% 49.1% 54.3% 83.7% 52.15% Bush 16.26 6.14 24.71 10.75 1.71 59.57 Pct 55.2% 48.9% 51.0% 45.8% 16.3% 47.85% REFUSERS Kerry 40.8% 45.4% 40.4% 45.0% 75.4% 44.83% Bush 59.2% 54.6% 59.6% 55.0% 24.6% 55.17% VOTE DEVIATION Kerry -0.53 -0.31 -1.96 -1.00 -0.41 -4.21 Pct -4.0% -4.8% -8.3% -7.8% -4.7% -6.49% WPE Calc -3.6% -4.9% -8.1% -8.5% -7.9% -6.77% E-M -3.6% -4.9% -8.1% -8.5% -7.9% -6.77% Diff 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...

These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Alert

Printer-friendly copy | Permalink | | Reply | Top

2 replies to this thread:

A Smoking Gun from Scoop: "Election 2004: The Urban Legend". ,

TruthIsAll, Fri Jun-15-07 02:17 AM

#1: Thanks, Autorank sent me a link. All the anger surrounding,

Kat, Jun 17th 2007

#2: EXIT POLL LOCATION SIZE RESPONSE OPTIMIZER,

TruthIsAll, Jul 21st 2007

Reply #1: Thanks, Autorank sent me a link. All the anger surrounding

Kat

Member since Oct 03rd 2005

3119 posts

Sun Jun-17-07 02:00 PM
In response to Original Post

the $#@^%$ NEP and the media coverup came back like it was yesterday.

We can't ever forget the greatest media lie of all. Their complicity made it possible for Bush to do a complete makeover of America.

Iraq Freedom Congress: ifcongress.com

Alert

Printer-friendly copy | Permalink | | Reply | Top

Reply #2: EXIT POLL LOCATION SIZE RESPONSE OPTIMIZER

TruthIsAll

Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Sat Jul-21-07 10:23 PM
In response to Original Post

Edited by TruthIsAll on Sat Jul-21-07 10:27 PM

EXIT POLL LOCATION SIZE RESPONSE OPTIMIZER						
7/22/07 2:01 AM						
						
Given: 						
1- Recorded vote (Bush 50.73- Kerry 48.27%)						
(Bush 51.24%- Kerry 48.76% 2-party)						
2- Location exit poll response						
3- Location "Within Precinct Error" (WPE)										
Calculate:						
Kerry Vote share (aggregate and by location)
Assume Census 125.74m total votes cast			
					
			WPE	WPE		
Size	Weight	Votes	Mean	Median Prct	Completion rate
BigCity	13%	16.35	-7.9	-5.9	105	0.52
SmallC	18%	22.63	-8.5	-7.7	236	0.54
Suburbs	45%	56.58	-8.1	-7.9	487	0.53
SmTown	8%	10.06	-4.9	-5	126	0.57
Rural	16%	20.12	-3.6	-3.6	296	0.55
						
		125.74	-7.17	-6.68	1250	
						
						
						
EXIT POLL (2-party)	Kerry	Bush				
						
Vote	      64.909	59.568				
Vote share	52.15%	47.85%				
% Deviation	-3.39%	3.39%				
Vote Dev	-5.882	2.472				
Dev/2-pty	-6.50%	7.08%				
						
Total Vote	64.909	59.568				
Vote share	51.62%	47.37%				
						
Deviation	5.882	-2.472				
%Deviation	9.06%	-4.15%				
						
PROBABILITY of	3.39%	discrepancy between exit poll and vote:
 1 in	65,022,192,779				
						
WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)						
Response	53.98%					
						
PERCENT OF EXIT POLL REFUSERS						
Kerry 44.83%					
Bush	55.17%					
						
	Rural	SmTown	Suburb	SmCit	BigCit	
Prcts	296	126	487	236	105	
	23.7%	10.1%	39.0%	18.9%	8.4%	
Votes	20.12	10.06	56.58	22.63	16.35	
	16%	8%	45%	18%	13%	

Kerry NEP share
12:22am	43%	52%	50%	53%	64%	
Final	40%	48%	47%	49%	61%	
TRUE	40%	50%	49%	59%	73%	
						
RANGE CONSTRAINTS						

KERRY WIN%						
Min	35%	45%	45%	45%	60%	
Max	55%	55%	55%	60%	100%	
						
RESPONSE						
Min	55%	57%	53%	54%	52%	
Max	55%	57%	53%	54%	52%	
						
ALPHA (K/B)						
Min	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	
Max	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	
						
WPE						
Min	-3.6%	-4.9%	-8.1%	-8.5%	-7.9%	
Max	-3.6%	-4.9%	-8.1%	-8.5%	-7.9%	
E-M	-3.6%	-4.9%	-8.1%	-8.5%	-7.9%	
						
						
						
		OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY				
						
......Poll	Count	PctDiff	Poll	Count	Diff (mm)
Kerry	52.15%	48.76%	-3.39%	64.909	60.695	-4.214
Bush	47.85%	51.24%	3.39%	59.568	63.782	4.214
Diff	4.29%	-2.48%	-6.77%	5.341	-3.087	-8.428
						
.....	Rural	SmTown	Suburb	SmCit	BigCit Total
Prcts	296	126	487	236	105	1250
2-pty	29.48	12.55	48.50	23.50	10.46	124.478
Pct	23.7%	10.1%	39.0%	18.9%	8.4%	100.0%
						
RESP.	55.0%	57.0%	53.0%	54.0%	52.0%	53.98%
DevAvg	1.0%	3.0%	-1.0%	0.0%	-2.0%	0.0%
						
ALPHA						
K/B	0.792	0.800	0.840	0.835	0.800	0.820
K/ 50B	39.6	40.0	42.0	41.8	40.0	41.0
DevAvg	-3.5%	-2.4%	2.4%	1.8%	-2.5%	0.0%
						
VOTE						
Kerry	12.69	6.10	21.82	11.75	8.34	60.695
Pct	43.0%	48.6%	45.0%	50.0%	79.7%	48.76%
						
Bush	16.79	6.45	26.67	11.75	2.12	63.782
Pct	57.0%	51.4%	55.0%	50.0%	20.3%	51.24%
						
RESPONDERS						
Kerry	13.22	6.41	23.79	12.75	8.75	64.909
Pct	44.8%	51.1%	49.1%	54.3%	83.7%	52.15%
						
Bush	16.26	6.14	24.71	10.75	1.71	59.568
Pct	55.2%	48.9%	51.0%	45.8%	16.3%	47.85%
						
REFUSERS						
Kerry	40.8%	45.4%	40.4%	45.0%	75.4%	44.83%
Bush	59.2%	54.6%	59.6%	55.0%	24.6%	55.17%
						
VOTE DEVIATION						
Kerry	-0.53	-0.31	-1.96	-1.00	-0.41	-4.21
Pct	-4.0%	-4.8%	-8.3%	-7.8%	-4.7%	-6.49%
						
WPE						
Calc	-3.6%	-4.9%	-8.1%	-8.5%	-7.9%	-6.77%
E-M	-3.6%	-4.9%	-8.1%	-8.5%	-7.9%	-6.77%
Diff	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Alert

Printer-friendly copy | Permalink | | Reply | Top

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Important Notice: By participating on this discussion board, you agree to respect the rules of this website. Messages posted on Progressive Independent are the opinions of their authors and do not represent the opinions of Progressive Independent, LLC.

Home | Discussion Forums | Multimedia | Reference | Links | Donate

About Progressive Independent | Contact Us | Privacy Policy

This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.