2004 Pre-election Polls Monthly Trend			

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ElectionModel_29506_image001.png	

National Pre-election Poll projections										
										
	Jan	Feb	Mar	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct
Mean
Kerry	40.78	47.80	47.58	46.31	46.86	46.64	47.47	47.40	44.33	47.17
Bush	51.56	46.10	44.83	45.62	44.71	45.71	45.20	45.40	48.28	46.89
										
Projection
UVA:75% to Kerry								

Kerry	45.78	51.63	52.52	51.62	52.43	51.63	52.22	52.05	49.13	50.88
Bush	53.22	47.38	46.48	47.38	46.57	47.38	46.78	46.95	49.88	48.13
Other	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
										
2-party										
Kerry	46.53	52.38	53.27	52.37	53.18	52.38	52.97	52.80	49.88	51.63
Bush	53.47	47.63	46.73	47.63	46.82	47.63	47.03	47.20	50.13	48.37
										
										
TIPP										
Kerry	na	44	45	40	43	43	46	44	46	44
Bush	na	41	43	44	42	44	43	44	45	45
Proj	na	54.5	53.3	51.3	53.5	52.0	53.5	52.3	52.0	51.5

ABC										
Kerry	na	52	53	48	49	53	47	49	45	48
Bush	na	43	44	49	47	45	49	48	51	47
Proj	na	55.0	54.5	49.5	51.3	53.8	49.3	50.5	47.3	51.0
										
AP										
Kerry	37	na	45	44	43	43	45	48	42	49
Bush	54	na	46	45	46	46	49	45	51	46
Proj	43.0	na	51.0	51.5	50.5	50.5	48.8	52.5	46.5	52.0

NWK										
Kerry	41	50	48	50	46	46	51	52	45	45
Bush	52	45	45	43	45	45	45	44	50	48
Proj	45.5	53.0	52.5	54.5	52.0	52.0	53.3	54.3	48.0	49.5

ARG										
Kerry	47	48	50	50	47	48	49	49	46	49
Bush	46	46	43	44	44	46	45	46	47	48
Proj	51.5	51.8	54.5	53.8	53.0	51.8	52.8	52.0	50.5	50.5
										
NBC										
Kerry	35	na	43	43	42	44	45	45	46	47
Bush	54	na	46	46	46	45	47	47	49	48
Proj	42.5	na	50.5	50.5	50.3	51.5	50.3	50.3	49.0	50.0

FOX										
Kerry	32	43	44	42	42	42	42	45	43	48
Bush	54	47	44	43	42	48	43	44	45	45
Proj	41.8	49.8	52.3	52.5	53.3	48.8	52.5	52.5	51.3	52.5

CBS										
Kerry	48	47	48	48	49	45	49	45	41	46
Bush	43	46	43	43	41	44	44	44	49	47
Proj	54.0	51.5	54.0	54.0	55.8	52.5	53.5	52.5	47.8	50.5
										
Gallup										
Kerry	43	48	52	46	49	48	51	48	44	48
Bush	55	49	44	51	47	49	44	47	52	46
Proj	43.8	49.5	54.3	47.5	51.3	49.5	54.0	51.0	46.3	51.8

Pew										
Kerry	41	47	48	47	50	46	46	47	40	46
Bush	52	47	44	46	45	48	44	45	48	45
Proj	45.5	50.8	53.3	51.5	53.0	49.8	52.8	52.3	48.3	52.0

LAT										
Kerry	na	na	na	49	49	51	48	46	43	48
Bush	na	na	na	46	46	44	46	49	47	47
Proj	na	na	na	52.0	52.0	54.0	51.8	49.0	49.8	51.0

Zogby										
Kerry	na	na	48	47	47	44	48	50	44	47
Bush	na	na	46	44	42	42	43	43	47	48
Proj	na	na	51.8	53.0	54.5	53.8	54.0	54.5	50.0	50.0

TIME										
Kerry	43	48	na	na	51	51	50	46	44	46
Bush	54	50	na	na	46	46	45	46	48	51
Proj	44.5	48.8	na	na	52.5	52.5	53.0	51.3	49.3	47.5

Dem Corp										
Kerry	na	51	47	48	49	49	50	52	49	48
Bush	na	47	50	49	47	48	47	45	49	47
Proj	na	51.8	48.5	49.5	51.3	50.5	51.5	53.5	49.8	51.0

Marist										
Kerry	na	na	na	na	na	na	45	45	45	49
Bush	na	na	na	na	na	na	44	44	47	48
Proj	na	na	na	na	na	na	52.5	52.5	50.3	50.5

Harris										
Kerry	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	46	48
Bush	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	48	47
Proj	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	49.8	51.0

Economist										
Kerry	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	46	49
Bush	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	46	45
Proj	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	51.3	52.8

ICR										
Kerry	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	43	44
Bush	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	50	46
Proj	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	47.5	50.8

______________________________________________________________


Final

      	NEP(Gender)	Recorded	Recorded (2-party)	
		Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
		47.78	51.22	48.28	50.73	48.76	51.24

		Final Poll	Projection	Projection (2-party)	
		Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
Pre-election 							
National 18	47.17	46.89	50.88	48.13	51.63	48.37
State		47.88	46.89	51.05	47.95	51.80	48.20
Average	      47.53	46.89	50.96	48.04	51.71	48.29

12:22am Exit Poll							
NEP Gender	50.78	48.22	50.78	48.22	51.29	48.71
NEP Voted2k	51.41	47.62	51.41	47.62	51.91	48.09
State (wtd)	49.76	48.76	50.01	48.99	50.52	49.48
Average	      50.65	48.20	50.73	48.28	51.24	48.76
							
Models							
Resp Opt	51.65	47.35	51.65	47.35	52.17	47.83
True Vote	52.56	46.43	52.56	46.43	53.10	46.90
Average	      52.11	46.89	52.11	46.89	52.63	47.37


______________________________________________________________


State Pre-election Poll Trend

Projection Assumption:
75% UVA to Kerry         
                   7-Sep	     7-Oct		 1-Nov	
                   Kerry Bush     Kerry Bush	 Kerry Bush

Mean               43.94 47.65    46.84 46.86    45.70 47.60  
Weighted           45.54 46.45    47.97 46.66    47.88 46.89                   
2-party            49.50 50.50    50.67 49.33    50.52 49.48 

Projection: 
2-party            51.54 48.46    51.99 48.01    51.80 48.20
Total              50.79 48.21    51.24 47.76    51.05 47.95

State	Date    Pollster	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush

AL	Oct 27	Survey USA	34	54	40	56	39	57
AK	Sep 11	ARG	      33	56	39	55	30	57
AZ	Oct 26	Rasmussen	42	45	47	50	45	50
AR	Oct 29	Mason-Dixon	47	48	47	47	48	48
CA	Oct 27	Field Poll	50	42	51	43	49	42

CO	Oct 30	Zogby	      47	47	49	48	47	48
CT	Oct 28	Research2K	45	38	47	38	52	42
DE	Sep 25	W Chester U	55	42	45	38	45	38
DC	Sep 13	ARG	      86	9	78	11	78	11
FL	Oct 30	Zogby 	        44	48	50	48	50	47

GA	Oct 29	Zogby 	        38	55	42	53	42	52
HI	Oct 20	SMS Res	        48	41	51	41	45	45
ID	Sep 10	ARG	      25	55	30	59	30	59
IL	Oct 29	Survey USA	52	38	55	38	54	42
IN	Oct 29	Survey USA	40	52	40	53	39	58

IA	Oct 30	Zogby	      47	47	51	44	50	44
KS	Oct 27	Survey USA	36	56	35	57	37	60
KY	Oct 20	Bluegrass	39	56	38	53	39	56
LA	Oct 22	SE La. Univ	36	52	42	50	40	48
ME	Oct 21	Zogby 	        49	44	42	39	50	39

MD	Oct 29	Survey USA	53	42	48	45	54	43
MA	Oct  5	Merrimack	56	30	64	27	64	27
MI	Oct 30	Zogby 	       48	44	52	42	52	45
MN	Oct 30	Zogby 	       46	46	53	44	52	44
MS	Sep 17	ARG	       30	61	42	51	42	51

MO	Oct 29	Mason-Dixon	45	49	49	50	44	49
MT	Oct 20	Mason-Dixon	33	53	36	54	36	57
NE	Oct 20	RKM Res	        33	62	30	61	32	61
NV	Oct 29	Survey USA	48	46	48	47	49	49
NH	Oct 30	ARG	        51	43	51	44	47	47

NJ	Oct 29	Survey USA	50	46	50	45	50	42
NM	Oct 30	ARG		42     45	55	43	49	49
NY	Oct 28	Survey USA	56	37	53	41	57	39
NC	Oct 26	Mason-Dixon	45	51	47	50	47	50
ND	Oct 19	Minn St U	33	61	33	62	35	55

OH	Oct 30	Zogby	        42	48	48	47	50	47
OK	Oct 24	Wilson Res	38	57	29	52	28	61
OR	Oct 29	Mason-Dixon	54	43	55	44	50	44
PA	Oct 30	Zogby	        46	47	52	46	50	45
RI	Oct 27	Survey USA	49	25	55	37	56	36

SC	Oct 24	Survey USA	42	53	37	55	42	55
SD	Oct 24	McLaughlin	40	54	40	52	42	52
TN	Oct 21	Mason-Dixon	50	48	48	50	48	50
TX	Oct 28	Survey USA	33	57	37	58	37	59
UT	Oct 28	Dan Jones	22	67	27	64	24	69

VT	Oct 12	Research2k	51	36	50	40	53	40
VA	Oct 29	Survey USA	45	49	47	50	47	51
WA	Oct 27	StratVision	48	43	54	44	52	44
WV	Oct 29	Mason-Dixon	42	49	44	50	46	49
WI	Oct 30	Zogby	        49	45	51	48	51	44
WY	Sep 11	ARG	        28	68	29	65	29	65

______________________________________________________________


Pre-election and Exit polls vs. the Recorded Vote

The pre-election state and national poll-based projections matched the 12:22am
exit polls.
Pre-election projections assume Kerry wins 70-75% of the undecided vote.

RECORDED VOTE
	        Final NEP	Recorded	Recorded (2-party)	
		Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
   	        47.78	51.22	48.28	50.73	48.76	51.24
							

POLLS AND MODELS
		Poll	        Projection	Projection (2-party)	
		Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
PRE-ELECTION
75% UVA to Kerry							
National 18	47.17	46.89	50.88	48.12	51.62   48.38
State		47.88	46.89	51.05	47.95	51.80	48.20
Average       47.53  46.89  50.96  48.04  51.71  48.39


70% UVA 							
National 18	47.17	46.89	50.63	48.37	51.33	48.67
State		47.88	46.89	50.84	48.16	51.54	48.46
Average       47.53  46.89  50.73  48.27  51.43  48.57



EXIT POLL (12:22am)							
NEP Gender	50.78	48.22	50.78	48.22	51.29	48.71
NEP Voted2k	51.41	47.62	51.41	47.62	51.91	48.09
State(wtd)	49.76	48.76	50.01	48.99	50.51	49.49
Average       50.65  48.20  50.73  48.28  51.24  48.76
							

EXIT POLL MODELS							
Resp Optimizer	51.65	47.35	51.65	47.35	52.17	47.83
NEP True Vote	52.56	46.43	52.56	46.43	53.10	46.90
Average       52.11  46.89  52.11  46.89  52.63  47.37


______________________________________________________________


Kerry 2-party pre-election and exit poll shares

Kerry’s projected national vote share (before undecided voter allcation) was 
1) 50.52%, based on the Election Model (1992-2000 average state turnout
weights).
2) 50.37%, based on the recorded 2004 state vote weights

Kerry’s 12:22am state exit poll weighted national share was 50.51%.


His weighted average 2-party vote shares (121.056mm 2-party votes):
 Pre-election: 50.37% = 60979 /121056
 Exit Poll   : 50.51% = 61144 /121056
 Actual      : 48.76% = 59028 /121056

If the exit polls were biased for Kerry, does the close match between the
pre-election and exit poll averages imply that the pre-election polls were also
biased?

-  Based on the pre-election polls, 41 out of 51 states deviated to Bush.
-  Based on the exit polls, 43 out of 51 states deviated to Bush.

-  If Kerry won 60% of the undecided (UVA), the average deviation was 0.37%
between pre-election and exit poll.
-  Assuming a 55% UVA, there was a 0.05% deviation 

-  In 39 states, one individual led both the pre-election and exit poll.
-  In 15 of 17 battleground states, one individual led in both polls.

 - In 15 states, pre-election vote shares differed from the exit poll vote
shares by less than 1%; in 29 states, by less than 2%; in 32 states, by less
than 3%; in 42 states, by less than 4%.

Sensitivity Analysis:
Percent deviation between average state pre-election projection and exit poll
for various UVA:
UVA            50     55     60     67     75		
Dev          0.26 -0.05 -0.37 -0.81 -1.31		

The exit poll margin of error (MoE) was exceeded in 16 states – all in favor of
Bush. The odds: 1 in 19 trillion.

Pre-Elect: Kerry 2-party pre-election state poll
Exit Poll: Kerry 2-party state exit poll (12:22am)

Pre /Actual: Kerry pre-election poll to actual vote 
Exit/Actual: Kerry exit poll to actual vote

Prob: Probability of discrepancy between poll and actual
PreAct: Kerry pre-election poll to actual vote 
ExAct:  Kerry exit poll to actual vote


	2-pty	Pre-	Exit	Actual	Pre-	Exit	Actual Pre/	Exit/	Probability-	Favor 
        Vote	Elect	Poll	Vote	Elect	Poll	Vote	Actual	Actual	PreAct	ExAct	P E
WtdMean	121056	50.37%	50.51%	48.76%	60979	61144	59028	103.3%	103.6%	14.1%	12.2%

Mean		48.57%	48.84%	47.09%	60979	61144	59028	103.4%	103.8%		
Median		50.00%	49.07%	47.48%				102.7%	103.9%	

AK	302	34.48%	40.14%	36.77%	104	121	111	94%	109%	 6.3%	1.2%	K  B
AL	1870	40.63%	41.08%	37.10%	760	768	694	109%	111%	 0.9%	0.4%	B  B
AR	1043	50.00%	46.60%	45.07%	522	486	470	111%	103%	 0.1%	15.4%	B  B
AZ	1998	47.37%	46.93%	44.72%	946	938	894	106%	105%	 3.9%	7.1%	B  B
CA	12255	53.85%	55.73%	55.04%	6599	6830	6745	98%	101%	21.3%	32.3%	K  B

CO	2103	49.47%	49.07%	47.63%	1040	1032	1002	104%	103%	11.0%	16.9%	B  B
CT	1551	55.32%	58.47%	55.27%	858	907	857	100%	106%	48.8%	1.6%	B  B
DC	224	87.64%	91.63%	90.52%	197	205	203	97%	101%	 2.7%	22.9%	K  B
DE	372	54.22%	58.44%	53.83%	202	217	200	101%	109%	39.9%	0.1%	B  B
FL	7548	51.55%	49.93%	47.48%	3891	3769	3584	109%	105%	 0.3%	5.1%	B  B

GA	3280	44.68%	43.11%	41.65%	1466	1414	1366	107%	104%	 2.2%	16.5%	B  B
HI	426	50.00%	53.32%	54.40%	213	227	232	92%	98%	 0.2%	23.5%	K  K
IA	1494	53.19%	50.67%	49.66%	795	757	742	107%	102%	 0.9%	25.0%	B  B
ID	590	33.71%	33.33%	30.68%	199	197	181	110%	109%	 2.2%	3.8%	B  B
IL	5239	56.25%	57.13%	55.21%	2947	2993	2892	102%	103%	24.3%	10.0%	B  B

IN	2448	40.21%	40.97%	39.58%	984	1003	969	102%	104%	33.7%	17.7%	B  B
KS	1171	38.14%	34.60%	37.13%	447	405	435	103%	93%	25.0%	4.6%	B  K
KY	1782	41.05%	40.76%	39.99%	732	726	713	103%	102%	24.0%	30.6%	B  B
LA	1922	45.45%	44.50%	42.67%	874	855	820	107%	104%	 3.2%	11.2%	B  B
MA	2875	70.33%	66.46%	62.74%	2022	1911	1804	112%	106%	 0.0%	0.7%	B  B

MD	2359	55.67%	57.04%	56.57%	1313	1346	1334	98%	101%	27.5%	37.6%	K  B
ME	727	56.18%	54.83%	54.58%	408	399	397	103%	100%	14.4%	43.4%	B  B
MI	4793	53.61%	52.55%	51.73%	2569	2519	2479	104%	102%	10.5%	29.1%	B  B
MN	2792	54.17%	54.61%	51.76%	1512	1525	1445	105%	106%	 5.4%	2.9%	B  B
MO	2715	47.31%	47.47%	46.38%	1284	1289	1259	102%	102%	26.7%	23.3%	B  B

MS	1130	45.16%	43.20%	40.49%	511	488	458	112%	107%	 0.1%	3.6%	B  B
MT	440	38.71%	39.28%	39.50%	170	173	174	98%	99%	70.1%	44.2%	K  K
NC	3487	48.45%	47.31%	43.76%	1690	1650	1526	111%	108%	 0.1%	0.9%	B  B
ND	308	38.89%	33.58%	36.09%	120	103	111	108%	93%	 3.1%	4.7%	B  K
NE	767	34.41%	36.54%	33.15%	264	280	254	104%	110%	20.1%	1.2%	B  B

NH	672	50.00%	55.49%	50.69%	336	373	341	99%	109%	32.3%	0.1%	K  B
NJ	3581	54.35%	56.13%	53.37%	1946	2010	1911	102%	105%	25.7%	3.3%	B  B
NM	748	50.00%	51.34%	49.60%	374	384	371	101%	104%	39.5%	12.3%	B  B
NV	816	50.00%	50.66%	48.68%	408	413	397	103%	104%	19.0%	9.4%	B  B
NY	7277	59.38%	63.97%	59.29%	4321	4655	4314	100%	108%	47.7%	0.1%	B  B

OH	5599	51.55%	52.06%	48.94%	2886	2915	2740	105%	106%	 4.1%	1.9%	B  B
OK	1464	31.46%	34.73%	34.43%	461	508	504	91%	101%	 2.4%	42.1%	K  B
OR	1810	53.19%	51.22%	52.11%	963	927	943	102%	98%	23.5%	27.8%	B  K
PA	5732	52.63%	54.41%	51.26%	3017	3119	2938	103%	106%	18.0%	1.8%	B  B
RI	429	60.87%	64.24%	60.58%	261	275	260	100%	106%	42.3%	0.7%	B  B

SC	1600	43.30%	45.78%	41.36%	693	732	662	105%	111%	 9.9%	0.2%	B  B
SD	382	44.68%	37.42%	39.09%	171	143	149	114%	96%	 0.0%	13.3%	B  K
TN	2421	48.98%	41.15%	42.81%	1186	996	1036	114%	96%	 0.0%	13.4%	B  K
TX	7360	38.54%	36.84%	38.49%	2837	2711	2833	100%	96%	48.6%	13.5%	B  K
UT	905	25.81%	29.93%	26.65%	234	271	241	97%	112%	28.6%	1.4%	K  B

VA	3172	47.96%	47.96%	45.87%	1521	1521	1455	105%	105%	 8.1%	8.1%	B  B
VT	305	56.99%	65.69%	60.30%	174	201	184	95%	109%	 1.4%	0.0%	K  B
WA	2815	54.17%	55.07%	53.65%	1525	1550	1510	101%	103%	36.4%	17.2%	B  B
WI	2968	53.68%	50.21%	50.19%	1593	1490	1490	107%	100%	 1.0%	49.4%	B  B
WV	750	48.42%	45.19%	43.52%	363	339	327	111%	104%	 0.1%	13.2%	B  B
WY	238	30.85%	32.07%	29.69%	74	76	71	104%	108%	21.9%	5.6%	B  B
													

_____________________________________________________________________


The National Exit Poll Timeline
The timeline shows how the Final National Exit Poll was matched to the Bush
recorded vote the day after the election. There was a steady Kerry trend
(51-48%) throughout election day. Category weightings were unchanged, except
for How Voted and Party ID in the Final (1:25pm). All Kerry vote shares were
reduced in the Final in order to match the recorded vote.  

 Summary Analysis

1. Kerry vote shares for all demographics were fairly constant until the Final.
2. Bush/Gore weights changed sharply from 12:22am to the Final. 
3. Based on actual NEP weights, Kerry in all timelines prior to the Final. He
lost the Final by 3.22 million.
4. Based on adjusted, plausible weights, Kerry won by 7-9 million votes. He won
the Final by 3.36 million.
5. The probability of the vote discrepancy from earlier timelines to the Final
declines as the number of respondents increase from 8349 to 13047. 
6. The margin of error at each timeline assumed a 20% exit poll cluster effect.


How Voted in 2000
NEP	Sample Poll	 Actual Vote   Prob        Adjusted Vote   Prob
Time	Size	MoE	Kerry	Margin 1 in	    Kerry   Margin   1 in
3:59pm	8349	1.29%	51.01%	4.96	17k	    53.01%   9.39   397bn
7:38pm	11027	1.12%	50.90%	4.66	88k	    52.47%   8.17   695bn
12:22am	13047	1.03%	51.41%	4.63	81mm	    52.57%   7.52   281tr
2:05pm	13660	1.01%	48.48%	-3.22	nc	    51.17%   3.36   nc

____________________________________________________________________________


	National Exit Poll Timeline 
                   (actual weights)

8349 Respondents	Vote shares 		Votes (in millions)		
11/02 3:59pm			
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	18.34	15%	62%	37%	1%	11.37	6.79	0.18
Gore	47.69	39%	91%	8%	1%	43.39	3.81	0.48
Bush	51.35	42%	9%	90%	0%	4.62	46.22	0.00
Other	4.89	4%	61%	12%	16%	2.98	0.59	0.78
								
Total 	122.3	100%	51.01%	46.95%	1.18%	62.37	57.41	1.44

11027 Respondents								
11/02 7:38pm								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	20.79	17%	59%	39%	1%	12.26	8.11	0.21
Gore	46.46	38%	91%	8%	1%	42.28	3.72	0.46
Bush	50.13	41%	9%	90%	0%	4.51	45.12	0.00
Other	4.89	4%	65%	13%	16%	3.18	0.64	0.78
								
Total 	122.3	100%	50.90%	47.09%	1.19%	62.24	57.58	1.46

13047 Respondents							
11/03 12:22am								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	20.79	17%	57%	41%	2%	11.85	8.52	0.42
Gore	47.69	39%	91%	8%	1%	43.39	3.81	0.48
Bush	50.13	41%	10%	90%	0%	5.01	45.12	0.00
Other	3.67	3%	71%	21%	8%	2.60	0.77	0.29
								
Total 	122.3	100%	51.41%	47.62%	0.97%	62.86	58.22	1.19

13660 Respondents								
11/03 2:05pm						
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	20.79	17%	54%	45%	1%	11.22	9.35	0.21
Gore	45.24	37%	90%	10%	0%	40.72	4.52	0.00
Bush	52.58	43%	9%	91%	0%	4.73	47.84	0.00
Other	3.67	3%	71%	21%	8%	2.60	0.77	0.29
								
Total 	122.3	100%	48.48%	51.11%	0.41%	59.28	62.49	0.50

____________________________________________________________________


	National Exit Poll Time Line							
(weights adjusted for 2000/2004 vote,  0.87% mortality,  95% turnout )
								
8349 Respondents
11/02 3:59pm								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	26.22	21.44%	62%	37%	1%	16.26	9.70	0.26
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	0%	42.55	3.74	0.00
Bush	46.25	37.83%	9%	90%	0%	4.16	41.63	0.00
Other	3.04	2.49%	61%	12%	16%	1.86	0.37	0.49
								
Total 	122.3	100%	53.01%	45.34%	0.61%	64.82	55.44	0.75

11027 Respondents
11/02 7:38pm								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	26.22	21.44%	59%	39%	1%	15.47	10.23	0.26
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	1%	42.55	3.74	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	9%	90%	0%	4.16	41.63	0.00
Other	3.04	2.49%	65%	13%	16%	1.98	0.40	0.49
								
Total 	122.3	100%	52.47%	45.79%	1.00%	64.16	55.99	1.22

13047 Respondents
11/03 12:22am								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	26.22	21.44%	57%	41%	2%	14.95	10.75	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	1%	42.55	3.74	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	10%	90%	0%	4.63	41.63	0.00
Other	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.3	100%	52.57%	46.42%	1.01%	64.28	56.76	1.24

13660 Respondents
11/03 2:05pm								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	26.22	21.44%	54%	45%	1%	14.16	11.80	0.26
Gore	46.75	38.24%	90%	10%	0%	42.08	4.68	0.00
Bush	46.25	37.83%	9%	91%	0%	4.16	42.09	0.00
Other	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.3	100%	51.17%	48.42%	0.41%	62.56	59.20	0.51

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.