2004 True Vote Model							
				by TruthIsAll


The 2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL encapsulates the mathematical arguments which indicate
why Kerry easily won the 2004 election BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT.

Download and run the Excel model: 
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/KerryTrueVote.zip

The model calculates that the BASE CASE (most likely) VOTE COUNT was:
Kerry	66.10mm (52.57%) 
Bush	58.38mm (46.43%)	
Other  1.27mm  (1.01%)	
Total 125.74mm (includes uncounted votes)

There has been an ongoing controversy regarding the true winner of the 2004
election. Those who still believe that Bush won maintain that the state exit
polls and the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) which Kerry won by 51-47%, do
not constitute proof of fraud. The rationale is that there is an inherent
Democratic bias in the polls. The reasons given are purely hypothetical.
Statistical evidence is not provided; in fact, the media will not release
detailed precinct-level data. 

The reasons for the bias include, but are not limited to the following: Kerry
voters were more likely to respond to pollsters; exit poll interviewers sought
Kerry voters; Bush voters lied or forgot who they voted for in 2000; the polls
are not true random samples. These theories have been debunked time and again.
The naysayers claim that exit polls are not designed to expose fraud in the
U.S., even though they are in many countries. They claim that the only purpose
of U.S. exit polls is to present a general picture of how the various
demographics voted. 

Naysayers dismiss early exit polls as being fraught with error. They never
consider the fact that the FINAL exit polls (State and National) are ALWAYS
forced to matched the RECORDED vote. They never consider the possibility of a
fraudulent vote count, which would indicate that the early exit polls are
closer to the TRUE VOTE. They assume that since the Democrats always do better
in the polls than in the vote count, the discrepancy must be due to polling
bias. They never consider the fact that in every election, a significant
percentage of votes cast (mostly Democratic) are never counted.

The TRUE VOTE MODEL uses factual historic election data. It considers voter
mortality and turnout estimates in order to calculate reasonable Exit Poll
weights. It assumes that the early 12:22am NEP vote shares are a good starting
point (base case) for the analysis, but allows the user to change ANY AND ALL
ASSUMPTIONS.

Users of the model are challenged to find one plausible Bush win scenario. In
lieu of this, the base case scenario indicates the Kerry won by over seven
million votes.

THE FACTS:
1) In 2000, 51.004 million voted for Gore, 50.456mm for Bush and 3.275mm for
Other (Nader et al)

2) Approximately 3.66 (3.5%) of the 104.7 million 2000 voters died prior to
2004. The U.S. 2000 annual mortality rate was 0.87%.

3) In 2004, the recorded vote was 122.3 million. This consisted of a) returning
2000  Gore, Bush and Other voters and b) the DNV group: first-time voters and
others who voted prior to 2000 but did not vote in 2000. 

4) Assuming the 0.87% annual mortality rate, the maximum number of returning
Gore voters was 49.22 million and 48.69mm for Bush.

5) The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED 2004
VOTE; IT IMPLICITLY ASSUMED ZERO FRAUD. We know this was NOT the case; evidence
of fraud abounds in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, etc. 

6) THE VOTED IN 2000 WEIGHTINGS WERE MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE. Why? Because
Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% (52.57mm) of the 2004 recorded
vote; Bush only had 50.46mm votes in 2000. Of these voters, only 48.69mm were
alive in 2004. And some of them did not vote in 2004.

BASE CASE PARAMETER ESTIMATES:

1) 2000 VOTER TURNOUT 
An unknown percentage of Gore, Bush and Other voters turned out in 2004. For
the base case, we assume 95% turnout for each.

2) UNCOUNTED VOTES 
According to the Census, 125.7 million voted in 2004, so 3.4mm (2.74%) of the
total votes cast were NEVER counted. The vast majority of uncounted votes are
in heavily Democratic minority districts. The base case assumption is that 75%
(2.584mm) of the 3.445mm uncounted votes were for Kerry, 24% for Bush and 1%
for Other. 

3) SWITCHED VOTES
Kerry's True Vote is given by the following equation: 
Kerry True Vote = Recorded Vote + Uncounted Votes + Switched Votes

Given Kerry's True, Recorded and Uncounted vote shares, we can solve for the
approximate number of Switched (Kerry to Bush) votes:

Switched Votes     = True Vote  - Recorded - Uncounted	
 4.486	             = 66.097      - 59.027	   -  2.584 

4) BASE CASE KERRY VOTE SHARES 
According to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won 57% of DNV, 91% of Gore, 10% of Bush
voters and 71% of Other voters. These are the Base Case vote shares. Uncounted
votes only effect the total number of votes cast, not the vote shares.

According to the Final 2:04pm NEP, Kerry won 54% of DNV, 90% of Gore, 9% of
Bush and 71% of Other voters.  The Final NEP "How Voted in 2000"
weights were shown to be mathematically impossible. Since the Final was FORCED
to MATCH the RECORDED vote, the RECORDED VOTE MUST ALSO BE IMPOSSIBLE. The fact
that Kerry vote shares declined dramatically from 12:22am to the Final is
further confirmation that the Final NEP does not reflect the True Vote; rather,
it matches the fraudulent, miscounted vote.


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Given the FACTS and recognizing that UNCERTAINTY exists in a) 2000 voter
turnout in 2004, b) uncounted votes in 2004, and c) Kerry's share of returning
2000 voters (the NEP MoE was given as 1.0% by the exit pollsters), how does the
model use this information? 

The TRUE VOTE MODEL allows user entry of changes in input assumptions. In
addition, a powerful built-in Sensitivity Analysis feature automatically
calculates Kerry's vote share over a range of incremental changes in these
parameters. Parameter ranges and increments are also input by the user. 
						
These are the BASE CASE input assumptions (data source in parentheses):
2000 voter turnout of Gore, Bush, Other: 95%, 95%, 95% (estimated)
Kerry share of DNV, Gore, Bush, Other: 57%, 91%, 10%, 71% (12:22am NEP)
Uncounted Votes as a % of Total Cast: 2.74% (2004 Vote Census)
Kerry, Bush, Other share of Uncounted votes: 75%, 24%, 1% (estimated)


____________________________________________________________			

UNLIKELY SCENARIOS

Consider the following unlikely scenarios to view the effects of significant
reductions in Base Case parameters (shown in parentheses) on Kerry's national
vote share and margin: 

Scenario 1: 
10% advantage in turnout of Bush 2000 voters over Gore voters. 
Gore turnout:  90% (95%)
Bush turnout: 100% (95%)
Kerry wins by 3.62mm votes (51.0-48%).

Scenario 2: 
Reduce Kerry share of DNV by 6% and Gore 2000 voter turnout by 4%.
DNV share:    51% (57%) 
Gore turnout: 91% (95%)
Bush turnout: 95% (95%)
Kerry wins by 2.88mm votes (50.6%-48.4%).

Scenario 3: 
Reduce Kerry share of Gore voters by 4% and Bush voters by 2%. 
Assume: 95% turnout of Gore and Bush voters
Gore share: 87% (91%)
Bush share:  8% (10%)
Kerry wins by 1.97mm votes (50.3%-48.7%).

____________________________________________________________			

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL
		
	ELECTION FACTS:	Votes	Dem	Share	Rep	Share	Other	Share		

	2000 Recorded		104.73	51.004	48.70%	50.456	48.18%	3.274	3.13%		
	2004 Recorded		122.30	59.027	48.27%	62.040	50.73%	1.228	1.00%		
	2004 Change		17.561	8.023	-0.43%	11.584	2.55%	-2.046	-2.12%		
____________________________________________________________			


CALCULATION OF ADJUSTED WEIGHTS

		2000	Vote	3.5%	Voters	Maximum	 2004	Adjusted
			Share	Died	Alive	Weight	Turnout	 Weight			

	Gore	51.004	48.70%	1.785	49.218	40.25%	95.0%	38.23%			
	Bush	50.456	48.18%	1.766	48.690	39.81%	95.0%	37.82%			
	Other	3.275	3.13%	0.115	3.160	2.58%	95.0%	2.46%			
	DNV	-	-	-	24.672	17.36%	-	21.49%			
	Total	104.73	100.0%	3.666	125.74	100.0%	-	100.0%			
____________________________________________________________			

				NATIONAL EXIT POLL (adjusted weights)
			
        	          12:22am (13047)                     2:04pm (13660)
VOTED                   Base Case 
2000	Turnout	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other

DNV	-	21.49%	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%	27.02		21.49%	54%	45%	1%
Gore	95%	38.23%	91.0%	8.0%	1.0%	48.07		38.23%	90%	10%	0%
Bush	95%	37.82%	10.0%	90.0%	0.0%	47.56		37.82%	9%	91%	0%
Other	95%	2.46%	71.0%	21.0%	8.0%	3.09		2.46%	71%	21%	8%
											
TRUE		100%	52.57%	46.43%	1.01%			100%	51.16%	48.43%	0.41%
Vote 		125.74	66.10	58.38	1.27			125.74	64.33	60.89	0.52

	Kerry margin:           7.72mm	              3.44mm
____________________________________________________________			

				NATIONAL EXIT POLL (original weights)

                            12:22am (13047)	   2:04pm (matched to vote)			
	VOTED  									
	2000	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other

	DNV	17%	57%	41%	2%	20.79		17%	54%	45%	1%
	Gore	39%	91%	8%	1%	47.70		37%	90%	10%	0%
	Bush	41%	10%	90%	0%	50.14		43%	9%	91%	0%
	Other	3%	71%	21%	8%	3.67		3%	71%	21%	8%
											
	Total 	100%	51.41%	47.62%	0.97%	122.30		100%	48.48%	51.11%	0.41%
	Vote 	122.30	62.87	58.24	1.19			122.30	59.29	62.50	0.50

Kerry margin:              4.63mm		            -3.22mm
____________________________________________________________			

											
EXIT POLL / VOTE DISCREPANCIES		
		
National EP: -3.87% Kerry vote deviation (1.02% MoE)	
Probability: 1 in 18.8 trillion			

State EP: Discrepancy exceeded MoE in 16 states for Bush
Probability: 1 in	19.1 trillion			
____________________________________________________________											


	TRUE VOTE RECONCILIATION: UNCOUNTED AND SWITCHED VOTES										
											
	 Recorded		+Uncounted	  +Switched	 = True Vote	

	Kerry	59.027	75.0%	2.584	61.611	4.486	6.79%	66.097	52.57%		
	Bush	62.040	24.0%	0.827	62.867	-4.492	-7.69%	58.375	46.43%		
	Other	1.228	1.0%	0.034	1.262	0.006	0.47%	1.268	1.01%		
	Total	122.30		3.445	125.74	0.000	0.00%	125.74	100.0%		
____________________________________________________________														

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
--------------------
						
		KERRY VOTE SHARE				
	(sensitivity to Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)				

	Gore Turnout				
Bush	90.0%	91.0%	92.0%	93.0%	94.0%	95.0%

95.0%	51.9%	52.0%	52.2%	52.3%	52.4%	52.6%
96.0%	51.7%	51.8%	52.0%	52.1%	52.2%	52.4%
97.0%	51.5%	51.6%	51.8%	51.9%	52.1%	52.2%
98.0%	51.3%	51.5%	51.6%	51.7%	51.9%	52.0%
99.0%	51.1%	51.3%	51.4%	51.5%	51.7%	51.8%
100.%	50.9%	51.1%	51.2%	51.4%	51.5%	51.6%
						
		KERRY VOTE MARGIN				
	(sensitivity to Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)									

	Gore Turnout				
Bush	90.0%	91.0%	92.0%	93.0%	94.0%	95.0%

95.0%	6.03	6.37	6.70	7.04	7.38	7.72
96.0%	5.55	5.89	6.22	6.56	6.90	7.24
97.0%	5.07	5.40	5.74	6.08	6.42	6.76
98.0%	4.59	4.92	5.26	5.60	5.94	6.28
99.0%	4.10	4.44	4.78	5.12	5.46	5.80
100.%	3.62	3.96	4.30	4.64	4.98	5.32
____________________________________________________________									

		KERRY VOTE SHARE				
	(sensitivity to Gore 2000 voter turnout and Kerry share of DNV)					
	Assume 95% Bush 2000 voter turnout	
						
	Kerry Share of DNV				
Gore	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%	56.0%

91.0%	50.6%	50.9%	51.1%	51.3%	51.6%	51.8%
92.0%	50.8%	51.0%	51.2%	51.5%	51.7%	51.9%
93.0%	51.0%	51.2%	51.4%	51.6%	51.8%	52.1%
94.0%	51.1%	51.3%	51.6%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%
95.0%	51.3%	51.5%	51.7%	51.9%	52.1%	52.4%
96.0%	51.4%	51.6%	51.9%	52.1%	52.3%	52.5%
97.0%	51.6%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%	52.4%	52.6%
98.0%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%	52.4%	52.6%	52.8%
99.0%	51.9%	52.1%	52.3%	52.5%	52.7%	52.9%
100.%	52.1%	52.3%	52.5%	52.7%	52.9%	53.1%
						
		KERRY VOTE MARGIN				
	(sensitivity to Gore 2000 voter turnout and Kerry share of DNV)	

	Kerry Share of DNV				
Gore	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%	56.0%

91.0%	2.88	3.46	4.04	4.62	5.20	5.78
92.0%	3.28	3.85	4.42	4.99	5.56	6.13
93.0%	3.68	4.24	4.80	5.36	5.92	6.48
94.0%	4.08	4.63	5.18	5.73	6.28	6.83
95.0%	4.48	5.02	5.56	6.10	6.64	7.18
96.0%	4.88	5.41	5.94	6.47	7.00	7.53
97.0%	5.28	5.80	6.32	6.84	7.36	7.88
98.0%	5.68	6.19	6.70	7.21	7.72	8.23
99.0%	6.08	6.58	7.08	7.58	8.08	8.58
100.%	6.48	6.97	7.46	7.95	8.44	8.93
						
____________________________________________________________									

		KERRY VOTE SHARE				
	(sensitivity to Kerry share of Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)

2000 Voter Turnout					
Gore	95%				
Bush	95%				
						
	Gore				
Bush	87.0%	88.0%	89.0%	90.0%	91.0%	92.0%

8.00%	50.28%	50.66%	51.05%	51.43%	51.81%	52.19%
7.00%	49.90%	50.28%	50.67%	51.05%	51.43%	51.81%
6.00%	49.52%	49.91%	50.29%	50.67%	51.05%	51.44%
5.00%	49.15%	49.53%	49.91%	50.29%	50.68%	51.06%
4.00%	48.77%	49.15%	49.53%	49.91%	50.30%	50.68%
3.00%	48.39%	48.77%	49.15%	49.54%	49.92%	50.30%
2.00%	48.01%	48.39%	48.78%	49.16%	49.54%	49.92%
1.00%	47.63%	48.02%	48.40%	48.78%	49.16%	49.54%
						

		KERRY VOTE MARGIN				
	(sensitivity to Kerry share of Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)

	Gore				
Bush	87.0%	88.0%	89.0%	90.0%	91.0%	92.0%

8.00%	1.97	2.94	3.90	4.86	5.82	6.78
7.00%	1.02	1.98	2.95	3.91	4.87	5.83
6.00%	0.07	1.03	1.99	2.96	3.92	4.88
5.00%	-0.88	0.08	1.04	2.00	2.97	3.93
4.00%	-1.83	-0.87	0.09	1.05	2.02	2.98
3.00%	-2.78	-1.82	-0.86	0.10	1.06	2.03
2.00%	-3.73	-2.77	-1.81	-0.85	0.11	1.07
1.00%	-4.68	-3.72	-2.76	-1.80	-0.84	0.12

____________________________________________________________									
						
		SWITCHED VOTE RATE				
	(sensitivity to Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)					
						
		Gore				
Bush	91%	92.0%	93.0%	94.0%	95.0%	96.0%

91.0%	7.1%	7.4%	7.6%	7.9%	8.1%	8.3%
92.0%	6.8%	7.1%	7.3%	7.5%	7.8%	8.0%
93.0%	6.5%	6.7%	7.0%	7.2%	7.4%	7.7%
94.0%	6.1%	6.4%	6.6%	6.9%	7.1%	7.4%
95.0%	5.8%	6.1%	6.3%	6.5%	6.8%	7.0%
96.0%	5.5%	5.7%	6.0%	6.2%	6.5%	6.7%
					
						
____________________________________________________________			
						
	PROBABILITY OF KERRY VOTE DEVIATION					
	(sensitivity to Gore and Bush 2000 voter turnout)
	 				
	Gore				
Bush	95.0%	96.0%	97.0%	98.0%	99.0%	100.0%

95.0%	5.E-14	7.E-15	9.E-16	1.E-16	0.E+00	0.E+00
96.0%	8.E-13	1.E-13	1.E-14	2.E-15	2.E-16	0.E+00
97.0%	1.E-11	2.E-12	2.E-13	3.E-14	4.E-15	4.E-16
98.0%	1.E-10	2.E-11	3.E-12	5.E-13	7.E-14	9.E-15
99.0%	1.E-09	2.E-10	4.E-11	6.E-12	9.E-13	1.E-13
100.%	9.E-09	2.E-09	4.E-10	7.E-11	1.E-11	2.E-12
						
____________________________________________________________									
						
	PROBABILITY OF KERRY VOTE DEVIATION					
	(sensitivity to Gore 2000 voter turnout and Kerry share of DNV)					
	Assume 95% Bush 2000 voter turnout	
						
	Kerry Share of DNV				
Gore	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%	56.0%	57.0%

9.E-01	6.E-05	8.E-06	1.E-06	9.E-08	7.E-09	5.E-10
9.E-01	2.E-05	2.E-06	2.E-07	2.E-08	1.E-09	9.E-11
9.E-01	4.E-06	5.E-07	5.E-08	4.E-09	3.E-10	2.E-11
9.E-01	9.E-07	1.E-07	9.E-09	7.E-10	5.E-11	2.E-12
9.E-01	2.E-07	2.E-08	2.E-09	1.E-10	7.E-12	4.E-13
1.E+00	4.E-08	4.E-09	3.E-10	2.E-11	1.E-12	5.E-14
1.E+00	7.E-09	6.E-10	5.E-11	3.E-12	2.E-13	7.E-15
1.E+00	1.E-09	1.E-10	7.E-12	4.E-13	2.E-14	9.E-16
1.E+00	2.E-10	1.E-11	9.E-13	5.E-14	2.E-15	1.E-16
1.E+00	2.E-11	2.E-12	1.E-13	6.E-15	2.E-16	0.E+00

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.