Reconciling Discrepancies: 2006 State Vote counts vs. Wikipedia votes/Generic
Trend

The goal of this model is to determine the percentage of votes which needed to
be switched from the Democrats to Republicans to match the 11/9 CBS News 52.7%
Democratic vote share. This was far below both the pre-election 120 Generic
poll trend and the Wikipedia 57.7% Democratic share. The model assumes that 
Wikipedia represents the TRUE national vote.

Based on historical statistics, approximately 3% of total votes cast are never
counted. The majority (70-90%) of these votes are found in Democratic minority
districts. It follows that approximately 75% of the uncounted votes are
Democratic. The racial mix in each state is used in order to approximate the
number of uncounted votes. The assumption is that 8% of non-white votes and 2%
of white votes were not counted. 

The base case analysis assumes that 7% of the recorded votes were switched. In
order to match the Wikipedia vote share (57.7D-41.8%R), and assuming that 3.16%
of total votes cast were uncounted, almost one in 12 (8.5%) Democratic votes
must have been switched to the Republicans. The probability that the CBS 52.7%
recorded Democratic vote would deviate by 5% from the Wikipedia count is 1 in
43 billion (see the sensitivity analysis table below). 


Base Case Model Assumptions:
Switched:  7.00% Dem to Rep
Uncounted: 3.16% of total votes cast

Uncounted Vote Shares:	
Race Share Reported	Pct	Unctd	Total	Pct	Unctd			
White	2.0%	62542	81.7%	1276	63819	80.7%	1.61%			
Other	8.0%	14043	18.3%	1221	15264	19.3%	1.54%			
Total	3.16%	76585	100%	2497	79082	100%	3.16%			

Result: 
Assuming a 7.0% switch rate, the Democratic TRUE vote was 56.94%.
Assuming an 8.5% rate, the TRUE vote was 57.7%, matching Wikipedia.

Base Case Summary						Switched  TRUE Vote
Dem	75%	40331	52.66%	1873	42204	53.37%	2.45%	2823	45027	56.94%
Rep	23%	34564	45.13%	 574	35138	44.43%	0.75% -2823	32315	40.86%
Other	 2%	 1690	 2.21%	  50	1740	2.20%	2.87%	0	1740	2.20%
Total	3.16%	76585	100.0%	2497	79082	100.0%	3.16%	0	79082	100.0%
								

Wikipedia: 
U.S. House of Representatives Election Results 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_2006

Party Seats........ Popular Vote 
...2004 2006 
Dem 202 233 +31; 39,267,916 57.7% +11.1% 
Rep 232 202 -30; 28,464,092 41.8%  –7.4% 
Indep 1   0  -1      69,707  0.1%   0.5% 
Other 0   0   0     255,876  0.4%  –3.2% 
Total 435 435 0  68,057,591  100%    0 

Special case: FL-13 (FL certified the Republican the winner, but this election
is being disputed in court)

Probability of Discrepancy
MoE	1.50%									
Prob	=NORMDIST(0.5266,0.5694,0.015/1.96,TRUE)	
1 in	86,082,782	

Sensitivity Analysis of Democratic TRUE Vote to Switched vote
Switch Dem%  Prob:1 in
5.0%	56.17% 444,121
6.0%	56.43% 2,308,702 (matches 120 Generic poll trend)
6.5%	56.68% 13,359,311
7.0%	56.94% 86,082,782  (base case)
7.5%	57.19% 617,885,835
8.0%	57.45% 4,941,793,389
8.5%	57.70% 43,247,703,725 (matches Wikipedia vote count)
								

U.S. House												
(in thousands)
CBSNews 11/09			

	Reported				Uncounted			Switch 	TRUE 			
	Total	Dem	GOP	Other	Margin	Total%	Dem	Rep	Other	Dem	Dem	Rep	Other	Margin
	76585	52.66%	45.13%	2.21%	7.53%	3.16%	1873	574	50	2823	56.94%	40.86%	2.20%	Discrepancy
	
AL	579	38.7%	60.8%	0.5%	-22.1%	3.7%	16	5	0.4	16	42.6%	56.8%	0.6%	7.1%
AK	202	40.1%	56.9%	3.0%	-16.8%	3.7%	6	2	0.2	6	44.0%	53.0%	2.9%	7.2%
AZ	1127	42.5%	51.1%	6.4%	-8.6%	2.7%	23	8	0.6	34	46.2%	47.5%	6.3%	7.1%
AR	747	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	19.9%	3.1%	18	6	0.5	31	64.5%	35.5%	0.1%	9.7%
CA	6236	56.9%	39.8%	3.3%	17.2%	3.4%	158	53	4.2	248	61.3%	35.4%	3.3%	9.3%

CO	1371	53.1%	41.7%	5.2%	11.4%	2.6%	27	9	0.7	51	57.2%	37.7%	5.1%	8.5%
CT	1079	60.4%	39.0%	0.6%	21.4%	2.9%	23	8	0.6	46	64.9%	34.5%	0.6%	9.6%
DE	509	38.7%	57.2%	4.1%	-18.5%	3.5%	13	4	0.4	14	42.5%	53.4%	4.1%	6.9%
FL	3727	40.2%	58.0%	1.8%	-17.8%	3.1%	88	29	2.3	105	43.9%	54.2%	1.8%	7.0%
GA	1916	41.7%	58.3%	0.0%	-16.6%	4.0%	58	19	1.5	56	45.8%	54.2%	0.1%	7.5%

HI	338	65.1%	34.9%	0.0%	30.2%	6.4%	16	5	0.4	15	69.9%	30.0%	0.1%	11.6%
ID	435	39.8%	55.9%	4.4%	-16.1%	2.3%	8	3	0.2	12	43.3%	52.4%	4.3%	6.6%
IL	3127	55.4%	44.2%	0.4%	11.2%	3.2%	75	25	2.0	121	59.7%	39.8%	0.5%	9.1%
IN	1646	48.8%	49.9%	1.3%	-1.1%	2.7%	33	11	0.9	56	52.8%	45.9%	1.4%	7.9%
IA	1028	47.7%	50.6%	1.8%	-2.9%	2.3%	18	6	0.5	34	51.5%	46.7%	1.8%	7.6%

KS	827	43.7%	54.4%	1.9%	-10.8%	2.7%	16	5	0.4	25	47.4%	50.6%	1.9%	7.2%
KY	1244	47.9%	49.0%	3.1%	-1.0%	2.6%	24	8	0.6	42	51.8%	45.1%	3.1%	7.8%
LA	901	32.6%	64.4%	3.0%	-31.7%	4.2%	28	9	0.7	21	36.5%	60.6%	3.0%	6.4%
ME	529	65.2%	30.4%	4.3%	34.8%	2.2%	9	3	0.2	24	69.9%	25.8%	4.3%	10.0%
MD	1344	61.6%	35.3%	3.1%	26.3%	4.1%	41	14	1.1	58	66.2%	30.8%	3.0%	10.2%

MA	1068	74.3%	18.5%	7.2%	55.7%	2.8%	22	7	0.6	56	79.3%	13.6%	7.1%	11.5%
MI	3516	51.0%	46.2%	2.8%	4.7%	3.1%	83	28	2.2	126	55.2%	42.1%	2.7%	8.4%
MN	2178	53.0%	42.5%	4.5%	10.5%	2.6%	42	14	1.1	81	57.1%	38.4%	4.5%	8.5%
MS	581	43.2%	50.8%	6.0%	-7.6%	4.3%	19	6	0.5	18	47.4%	46.8%	5.9%	7.9%
MO	2050	47.1%	50.3%	2.6%	-3.2%	2.9%	45	15	1.2	68	51.0%	46.4%	2.6%	7.8%

MT	805	39.0%	59.1%	1.9%	-20.1%	2.5%	15	5	0.4	22	42.5%	55.6%	1.9%	6.6%
NE	586	43.9%	56.1%	0.0%	-12.3%	2.5%	11	4	0.3	18	47.6%	52.4%	0.0%	7.2%
NV	573	50.1%	45.2%	4.7%	4.9%	3.0%	13	4	0.3	20	54.2%	41.2%	4.6%	8.3%
NH	402	52.0%	47.0%	1.0%	5.0%	2.2%	7	2	0.2	15	56.0%	43.0%	1.0%	8.2%
NJ	1859	51.0%	47.6%	1.3%	3.4%	3.4%	47	16	1.3	66	55.3%	43.4%	1.4%	8.5%

NM	545	55.8%	44.2%	0.0%	11.6%	2.9%	12	4	0.3	21	60.1%	39.9%	0.1%	9.0%
NY	3561	64.2%	35.6%	0.2%	28.6%	3.6%	95	32	2.5	160	68.8%	30.9%	0.3%	10.4%
NC	1842	50.8%	49.2%	0.0%	1.5%	3.6%	49	16	1.3	65	55.0%	44.9%	0.1%	8.6%
ND	433	65.6%	34.4%	0.0%	31.2%	2.5%	8	3	0.2	20	70.3%	29.7%	0.0%	10.2%
OH	3763	52.4%	47.4%	0.2%	4.9%	2.9%	82	27	2.2	138	56.5%	43.2%	0.3%	8.5%

OK	905	41.2%	57.2%	1.5%	-16.0%	3.3%	22	7	0.6	26	45.0%	53.4%	1.6%	7.2%
OR	1264	56.4%	41.4%	2.2%	15.0%	2.5%	24	8	0.6	50	60.7%	37.1%	2.2%	8.9%
PA	3815	54.0%	44.7%	1.3%	9.3%	2.8%	81	27	2.2	144	58.2%	40.4%	1.3%	8.7%
RI	372	71.0%	11.3%	17.7%	59.7%	2.7%	7	2	0.2	18	75.9%	6.8%	17.3%	11.0%
SC	1072	43.5%	55.3%	1.2%	-11.8%	3.9%	32	11	0.8	33	47.6%	51.2%	1.2%	7.7%

SD	667	69.1%	29.4%	1.5%	39.7%	2.7%	13	4	0.4	32	73.9%	24.5%	1.5%	10.7%
TN	1712	50.2%	46.6%	3.2%	3.7%	3.1%	40	13	1.1	60	54.4%	42.5%	3.2%	8.3%
TX	3994	44.6%	51.8%	3.6%	-7.2%	3.0%	90	30	2.4	125	48.5%	48.0%	3.5%	7.5%
UT	549	42.6%	51.5%	5.8%	-8.9%	2.4%	10	3	0.3	16	46.3%	48.0%	5.7%	7.0%
VT	524	53.2%	44.7%	2.1%	8.6%	2.2%	9	3	0.2	20	57.3%	40.6%	2.1%	8.4%

VA	2148	37.7%	56.8%	5.5%	-19.1%	3.6%	57	19	1.5	57	41.5%	53.1%	5.4%	6.8%
WA	1309	61.3%	38.1%	0.5%	23.2%	2.9%	28	9	0.8	56	65.9%	33.6%	0.6%	9.7%
WV	446	57.8%	42.2%	0.0%	15.7%	2.3%	8	3	0.2	18	62.2%	37.8%	0.0%	9.0%
WI	1852	54.0%	45.1%	0.8%	8.9%	2.6%	36	12	1.0	70	58.2%	40.9%	0.8%	8.6%
WY	377	48.8%	49.3%	1.9%	-0.5%	2.3%	7	2	0.2	13	52.7%	45.4%	1.9%	7.8%
	

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.