This is an update to the Generic poll model using two projection methods:
1) calculating the 120-poll linear trend and adding an undecided voter
allocation adjustment (UVA) of 60% to the Democratic final trend. 
2) averaging the final 10 Generic polls and adding the UVA adjustment.

The 120-poll trend and 10-poll average projections matched to within .05%.

The reported Democratic vote share was 
1)51.3% based on CBS state totals (11/09).
2)52.7% based on CBS national totals.
3)57.7% based on Wikipedia national totals.
4)52.6% based on the CNN Final National Exit Poll (1108).

Key model results: 
Assuming the Democrats captured 60% of the undecided vote,
1-the 120-Generic poll trend line projected a 56.43% share.
2-the Final 10 Generic poll average projected a 56.38% share

The probability is near ZERO that the vote/poll discrepancies were due to
chance alone.

So either 
1) the 120 pre-election Generic polls and Wikipedia vote count are wrong,
or...
2) the CBS reported vote and CNN exit poll are wrong.

If you believe the Generics and Wikipedia were wrong, take a trip to Sarasota.
It's beautiful this time of year.
Take some time to check out the voting machines in FL-13.
See if you can find those 18,000 (mostly Democratic) missing votes.
________________________________________________

This is a summary of the exit polls and reported votes. 

National Exit Poll 
Source.....Votes  Dem  Rep Other Margin Dem  Rep Other 
CNN-7:07pm 76.58 41.05 34.40 1.13 6.65 53.6% 44.9% 1.5%
CNN-Final  76.58 40.24 34.43 1.91 5.81 52.6% 45.0% 2.5%
NYT (adj)  76.58 40.65 34.40 1.53 6.25 53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
(NYT Exit Poll adjusted to include Other).

Reported National Vote
Wikipedia 68.06 39.27 28.46 0.32 10.80 57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS(Nat)  76.58 40.32 34.57 1.69 5.76 52.7% 45.1% 2.2%
CBS(State)73.69 37.80 34.20 1.69 3.60 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%

CBS State is the sum of reported state votes. The 51.3-46.4% vote share was the
basis for the 5.1% Democratic discrepancy and the calculations which follow. The
3mm vote difference between CBS state and national is virtually all Democratic.


________________________________________________

PROJECTED DEMOCRATIC VOTE SHARE BASED ON THE 120-GENERIC POLL TREND LINE

Democratic Projection Frequencies
Proj> Freq	Pct
54.0	120	100.0
54.5	119	99.2
55.0	116	96.7
55.5	105	87.5
56.0	92	76.7
56.5	76	63.3
57.0	47	39.2
57.5	31	25.8
58.0	20	16.7
58.5	5	4.2
59.0	1	0.8

Linear Regression Trend:
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
GOP = 38.06 + .0047x	

Substituting x=120 and allocating 60% (UVA) to the Democrats: 
........Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem =	52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep =	38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%

Assuming a 1.5% MoE and 60% UVA, we calculate the probability that the
Democratic vote share would decline 5.13% from the Generic Poll (56.43%) to
the actual vote (51.3%). 

Using the Excel Normal Distribution function: 
Probability= 1.0E-11= NORMDIST(0.513,0.5643,0.015/1.96,TRUE)
or 1 in 99,128,359,468

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS I:
Probabilities of Democratic vote deviations from the 120-Generic Poll trend
line for various MoE and UVA assumptions.

The Probability is 1 in X, where X is given in the table below.
(t=trillion, b=billion, m=million, k=thousand)

Proj.	55.7%	56.1%	56.43% 56.8% 57.2% 57.5% Democratic projection
Dev	4.4%	4.8%	5.1%	5.5%	5.9%	6.2%  Deviation from 51.3% reported vote
Margin 13.4%  14.1%  14.9%  15.6%  16.3%  17.1% 

UVA	50%	55%	60%	65%	70%	75%
MoE	Probability of Vote Discrepancy 
1.25%	358b	24t	2252t	nc	nc	nc
1.50%	213m	4b	99b	3t	114t	4503t
1.75%	2.3m	21m	220m	2.7b	40b	704b
2.00%	120k	650k	4.1m	28m	226m	2b

2.25%	15k	60k	255k	1.2m	6.2m	36m
2.50%	3.5k	111k	35k	124k	476k	2m
2.75%	1.2k	2.9k	7.9k	23k	69k	228k
3.00%	.5k	1.1k	2.5k	6k	16k	43k

________________________________________________

PROJECTED DEMOCRATIC VOTE SHARE BASED ON THE FINAL 10-POLL AVERAGE

Assumption: 
60% of the 7.3% undecided vote (UVA) allocated to Democrats

..............Dem 	GOP	Margin	
Avg	Date	52.0	38.7   13.3
			
Harris1023	47	33    14
AP	1030	56	37    19
CBS	1101	52	33    19
Nwk 	1103	54	38    16
TIME	1103	55	40    15

Pew	1104	47	43     4
ABC	1104	51	45     6
USA	1106	51	44     7
CNN	1106	58	38    20
FOX	1106	49	36    13

..............   Dem 	GOP	Margin	
Average.......  52.0%   38.7%   13.3%	
UVA........	 4.4%	 2.9%	 0.9%	  
-----          -----    -----  -----
Projection.	56.4%	41.6%	14.8%
Vote.......	51.3%	46.4%	 4.9%	
-----          -----    -----  -----
Discrepancy     -5.1%   4.8%    -9.9%	

________________________________________________

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS II: 
Probability of vote discrepancies from the projected 56.38% Democratic average
of the final 10 Generic Polls, for various MoE and UVA assumptions.

Dem 10-poll avg:  52.00%
UVA 60% adj:       4.38% 
---------------   -----
Projected Vote:   56.38%

UVA	50%	56.1%  60%	65%	70%	75%
Proj.	55.7%  56.1%   56.38%   56.8%  57.2%   57.5% 
Margin  13.3%  14.2%   14.8%    15.5%  16.2%   17.0%
Dev.... 4.4%   4.8%     5.1%     5.5%   5.8%    6.2%
						
MoE	Probability of Vote Discrepancy
1.25%	219b	36t	1286t	 nc	nc	nc
1.50%	151m	5.4b	62b	1.8t	63t	3002t
1.75%	1.8m	25m	157m	1.9b	26b	428b
2.00%	99k	766k	3m	21m	161m	1.4b

2.25%	13k	68k	207k	950k	4.8m	27m
2.50%	3k	12k	29k	102k	381k	1.5m
2.75%	1k	3.2k	6.8k	19k	58k	186k
3.00%	446	1.2k	2.2k	5.3k	14k	37k

___________________________________

CBS National Exit poll	

.............Dem   GOP
Exit........52.70% 45.10%
Generic.....56.43% 41.57%	
Deviation....3.73% 3.53%	

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS III: 
Probability of 3.73% discrepancy between the 120-Generic pre-election trend
line projection and the Final National Exit Poll for various MoE assumptions.

MoE	Probability:1 in
1.00%	7,474,854,153,312
1.25%	402,249,154
1.50%	1,825,026
1.75%	67,847

2.00%	7,787
2.25%	1,728
2.50%	579
2.75%	255
3.00%	135
___________________________________

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IV: 
Probability of 5.0% discrepancy between the Wikipedia vote count and 
the National Exit Poll for various MoE assumptions.

Democratic share:
Exit poll: 52.7%	
Wikipedia: 57.7%	
Deviation: 5.0%	

MoE	Prob	1 in
1.00%	nc
1.25%	450,359,962,737,050
1.50%	30,938,221,975
1.75%	93,056,001

2.00%	2,083,900
2.25%	150,566
2.50%	22,577
2.75%	5,467
3.00%	1,838

_________________________________________________________________

Final 10 Generic Polls:

Poll  Date  Dem  Rep   Margin
Harris1023	47	33	14
AP	1030	56	37	19
CBS	1101	52	33	19
Nwk	1103	54	38	16
TIME	1103	55	40	15
CNN	1106	58	38	20
FOX	1106	49	36	13
				
Pew	1104	47	43	4
ABC	1104	51	45	6
USA	1106	51	44	7

3-poll outliers				
Avg		49.67	44.00	5.67
2-pty		53.02	46.98	

7-polls				
Avg		53.00	36.43	16.57
2-pty		59.27	40.73	

Avg-10	52.00	38.70	13.30
2-pty		57.33	42.67	

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS V: 
Probability of deviation between 7-polls vs. 3-poll (outliers) vs. full 10-poll
set for various MoE assumptions.

MoE = 0.97% for n=10000			

Dev	6.24	1.93	4.31	
MoE	Probability of Dev: 1/x			
0.97%	nc	21k	nc	
1.10%	nc	3.5k	118t	
1.20%	nc	1.3k	994b	
1.30%	nc	562	24b	
1.40%	nc	294	1.2b	

1.50%	4503t	173	109m	
1.60%	95t	112	15m	
1.70%	3t	77	2.9m	
1.80%	183b	57	730k	
1.90%	16b	43	225k	

2.00%	2b	34	82k	
2.10%	347m	28	34k	
2.20%	74m	24	16k	
2.30%	19m	20	8.2k	
2.40%	5.7m	17	4.6k	

2.50%	2m	15	2.7k	
2.60%	783k	14	1.7k	
2.70%	338k	12	1.1k	
2.80%	159k	11	778	
2.90%	81k	10	555	
3.00%	44k	10	409	

k-thousand, m-million, b-billion, t-trillion

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

and TIA has sliced it every way possible. Now why would the Dems not want to
address this and past frauds?

Mother Earth is very, very sick. I must get very, very quiet and listen. ...

The most common way people give up their power is by thinking theydon't have any.—Alice Walker


TRUTH AND JUSTICE RADIO: http://www.truthandjusticeradio.org
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