Then you are invited to a free vacation in Sarasota to check out the voting machines.

This is a summary comparison of the reported National vote vs. 120 pre-election Generic Poll model projection, preliminary (7:07pm) and Final National Exit Polls.

There is a major discrepancy between the reported CBS News national vote total from the EDA summary table and the state vote totals in the detailed table. National vote totals are also posted on Wikipedia (57.7%D-41.8%R), but the data source is not indicated. What is the explanation for these obvious discrepancies?

There is incontrovertible evidence of many reported incidents in which votes were miscounted or lost (FL-13, IL-6, FL-24, OH-2, etc.). In addition, voter disenfranchisement amounted to millions of votes; this has become an expected Democratic vote loss tradition, along with the miscounting votes. These components of implicit and explicit fraud inflate Republican margins and swing elections to them. Only this time, the standard vote-switching algorithm drowned in the Democratic Tsunami.

The bottom line is that the Democrats won by a much bigger margin than the reported vote count indicates. If the Wikipedia is correct, then the Democrats received 57.7% + X%, where X =3-5%.

But it's impossible to know the actual vote count - there is no paper trail. It's a sad commentary on the lack of transparency in our elections. That's why we rank far from the top in democratic voting systems world-wide. Just ask Jimmy Carter. Of course, voting machine vendors tell us everything is just fine; the machines performed brilliantly. And they did - for the Republicans.

Is the corporate media (NYT, MSNBC, etc) finally waking up to the extent of the problem? And what about the Democrats? Will they just glow in the results of an election in which 15-20 House seats were probably stolen and two Senate seats were almost stolen?
____________________________________________________

This is a summary table of polls and reported votes. Details and links are provided below.

Summary Votes Dem Rep Other Margin Dem Rep Other
Average 74.95 40.33 33.22 1.40 7.11 53.8% 44.3% 1.9%

Pre-election
Generic-10 76.58 42.96 32.09 1.53 10.87 56.1% 41.9% 2.0%

National Exit Poll
CNN-7:07pm 76.58 41.05 34.40 1.13 6.65 53.6% 44.9% 1.5%
CNN-Final 76.58 40.24 34.43 1.91 5.81 52.6% 45.0% 2.5%
NYT (adj) 76.58 40.65 34.40 1.53 6.25 53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
(I adjusted the NYT National Exit Poll results slightly to include Other).

Reported National Vote
Wikipedia 68.06 39.27 28.46 0.32 10.80 57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS(11/09) 76.58 40.32 34.57 1.69 5.76 52.7% 45.1% 2.2%
CBS State 73.69 37.80 34.20 1.69 3.60 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%

Average
Generic-10 76.58 42.96 32.09 1.53 10.87 56.1% 41.9% 2.0%
NatExitPoll 76.58 40.65 34.41 1.52 6.24 53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
ReportedVote72.78 39.13 32.41 1.24 6.72 53.9% 44.5% 1.7%

____________________________________________________

Final 10 Generic Polls
---------------------
Poll Date Dem Rep
Harris1023 47 33
AP 1030 56 37
CBS 1101 52 33
Nwk 1103 54 38
Time 1103 55 40

Pew 1104 47 43
ABC 1104 51 45
USA 1106 51 44
CNN 1106 58 38
FOX 1106 49 36

Average 52.0% 38.7%
Adj UVA 4.1% 3.2%
Projected 56.1% 41.9%

Reported 51.3% 46.4%
Deviation -4.8% +4.9%

____________________________________________________

CNN National Exit Poll (7:07pm)
Sample-size: 13,208
MoE: 0.87%

GENDER
...........Mix Dem Rep Other
Male. 48% 51% 47% 2%
Female 52% 56% 43% 1%
Total. 100% 53.6% 44.9% 1.5%

CNN NATIONAL EXIT POLL (1:00pm)
Sample-size: 13,251
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/sta...

GENDER
...........Mix Dem Rep Other
Male. 49% 50% 47% 3%
Female 51% 55% 43% 2%
Total. 100% 52.6% 45.0% 2.4%

____________________________

NYT National Exit Poll


GENDER
...........Mix Dem Rep Other
Male. 48% 51% 47% 2%
Female 52% 55% 43% 2%
Total. 100% 53.1% 44.9% 2%

____________________________

Wikipedia
---------
Dem 39.267mm 57.7%
Rep 28.464mm 41.8%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_e...
____________________________

CBS 11/09
---------
(reported by the Election Defense Alliance-EDA)

http://electiondefensealliance.org/landslide_denie...



http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

The CBS summary vote totals differ from the state totals by 2.902mm votes.
Of this difference, 2.527mm are Democratic votes and 0.371mm are Republican.

It's a Supreme Mystery:
Baby, baby, where did the 2.9mm votes go?

Reported Vote (millions)
CBS........... Total Dem Rep Other
Summary 76.582 40.323 34.565 1.694
Detail..... 73.680 37.796 34.194 1.690
Deviation... 2.902 2.527 0.371 0.004

____________________________

The projected 10-Generic poll 14.2% Democratic margin deviated by -9.3% from the CBS Reported margin, a 6.861mm vote difference. The corresponding Democratic vote share deviated by -4.9%.

U.S. House
(in thousands)
............... Dem Repub Other Dem Repub Other Marg VoteMargin
Generic.. 41334 30872 1474 56.1% 41.9% 2.0% 14.2% 10463
Reported 37796 34194 1690 51.3% 46.4% 2.3% 4.9% 3602
Deviation -3538 3322 216 -4.8% 4.5% 0.3% -9.3% -6861

____________________________

MATCHING THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TO THE FINAL GENERIC-10:

In the following tables, National Exit Poll weights and vote shares were adjusted in order to MATCH the Generic 10-poll projection. Since the Final NEP is ALWAYS matched to the REPORTED vote, and virtually everyone agrees that the reported vote does NOT reflect the TRUE vote, we are surely justified in matching the NEP to the Generic 10-poll projection.

Final Generic 10-poll projection
.....................Dem Rep Other
Generic-10 56.1% 41.9% 2.0%

National Exit Poll
(adjusted to match the GP)

VOTED 2004
........Mix Dem Rep Other
Kerry 50% 92% 6% 2%
Bush 45% 15% 83% 2%
Other 1% 76% 22% 2%
NoVote4% 65% 32% 3%
Total 100% 56.1% 41.9% 2.0%

PARTY ID
........Mix Dem Rep Other
Dem 40% 93% 6% 1%
Rep 33% 12% 86% 2%
Ind 27% 55% 41% 4%
Total 100% 56.0% 41.9% 2.1%

GENDER
........Mix Dem Rep Other
Male 47% 54% 44% 2%
Female53% 58% 40% 2%
Total 100% 56.1% 41.9% 2.0%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

foo-bar said:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

Kudos to you for doing all that work. Bet you thought you finally got me.
Well, not quite.

I was being conservative when I included ABC, Pew, and USA/Gallup, realizing that they were very suspicious late outliers.

The 7-poll 58.1% projection falls within the Wikipedia margin.
The 3-poll 52.3% projection lowered the 10-poll projection by 2.1%.
Therefore, the 10-poll 56.0% projection was conservative.

Looking at the final 30 polls from Oct.2:
The 30-poll projection was 55.8%.
The 27-poll projection (excluding outliers) was 57.0%.

There was a 1.1% deviation between the 7-poll and 27-poll projections.
Why? The Democratic trend was increasing.

UVA: 60% of Undecided voters were allocated to the Democrats

Poll.... Date Dem Rep Oth Und UVA Dem
Harris 1023 47 33 2 18 10.8 57.8
AP..... 1030 56 37 2 5 3 59.0
CBS... 1101 52 33 2 13 7.8 59.8
Nwk.. 1103 54 38 2 6 3.6 57.6
TIME.. 1103 55 40 2 3 1.8 56.8
CNN... 1106 58 38 2 2 1.2 59.2
FOX..... 1106 49 36 2 13 7.8 56.8

Outliers:
Pew... 1104 47 43 2 8 4.8 51.8
ABC... 1104 51 45 2 2 1.2 52.2
Gallup..1106 51 44 2 3 1.8 52.8

Averages
Polls...... Dem Rep Other Undec UVA Projection
10.... 51.6% 39.1% 2.0% 7.3% 4.4% 56.0%
7...... 53.0% 36.4% 2.0% 8.6% 5.1% 58.1% (excl. outliers)
3...... 49.7% 44.0% 2.0% 4.3% 2.6% 52.3% (outliers)

Final 30 polls/projections from Oct.2:
30.... 51.0% 39.0% 2.0% 8.0% 4.8% 55.8%
27.... 52.9% 38.3% 2.0% 6.8% 4.1% 57.0% (excl. outliers)

Poll..............Date Dem Rep
CNN LV........... 1002 53.0% 42.0%
AP-Ipsos RV..... 1004 51.0% 38.0%
Pew RV........... 1004 51.0% 41.0%
TIME LV.......... 1005 54.0% 39.0%
Newsweek RV... 1006 51.0% 39.0%

ABC RV............1008 54.0% 41.0%
CNN LV ...........1008 58.0% 37.0%
Gallup LV.........1008 59.0% 36.0%
Harris LV.........1009 49.0% 36.0%
FOX LV............1011 50.0% 41.0%

CNN LV .......... 1015 56.0% 40.0%
NBC RV........... 1016 52.0% 37.0%
Newsweek LV... 1021 55.0% 37.0%
Gallup LV........ 1023 54.0% 41.0%
ABC RV........... 1023 54.0% 41.0%

CNN LV .......... 1022 57.0% 40.0%
Hotline RV....... 1023 52.0% 34.0%
Zogby LV......... 1025 44.0% 33.0%
FOX LV........... 1025 49.0% 38.0%
Newsweek LV... 1027 53.0% 39.0%

CNN LV .......... 1029 53.0% 42.0%
NBC LV........... 1030 52.0% 37.0%
CBS LV........... 1101 52.0% 33.0%
Newsweek LV... 1103 54.0% 38.0%
TIME LV.......... 1103 55.0% 40.0%

Pew LV........... 1104 47.0% 43.0%
ABC LV...........1104 51.0% 45.0%
Gallup LV....... 1106 51.0% 44.0%
CNN LV .......... 1106 58.0% 38.0%
FOX LV........... 1106 49.0% 36.0%

In closing, I want to emphasize that my probability calculations are based on actual polling results, an assumed UVA over a range of MoE assumptions. Do you have a problem with that? And I was being conservative when I used a 1.5% MoE. As for those "house effects", why don't you try to quantify them?

As the number of polls increase, so-called "house effects" are minimized. As long as the polls sample from the same general population at approximately the same time, averaging of the results makes mathematical and intuitive sense. So does combining the sample-sizes. That's why analysts combine the latest polls.

A most important and famous result is The Central Limit Theorem (CLT). Political analysts are aware of the Law of Large Numbers, but are unaware of the ramifications of the CLT.

The CLT states that if the sum of the variables has a finite variance, then it will be approximately normally distributed. Since many real processes yield distributions with finite variance, this explains the ubiquity of the normal distribution.

You can test out the CLT yourself with this simulation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illustration_of_the_c...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

On the Other Hand at DU said:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...


TIA:
Touchy, touchy...

Have I struck a nerve? Are you feeling some heat?

How else to describe your choice of words?

You know, I never said you were full of shit. But I do admit it's implied each and every time I destroy your convoluted, misleading arguments in full view. Like I have in this thread.

Instead of your that one-line response, you could have pointed out exactly where the subject of F-R-A-U-D was discussed in the specific pollster.com thread I referred to. In fact, it would be nice if you showed us a few examples where the subject was brought up by someone other than myself. Did YOU ever bring it up? You may want to check out mydd.com. I never saw F-R-A-U-D mentioned there, either. Check out Charlie Cook's website while your at it.

The bottom line is that professional pollsters and analysts don't want to discuss F-R-A-U-D at all. After all, they are creatures of the media - the black lagoon which you should have referred to. They are very concerned about keeping their status and income intact, so they avoid the issue. I have not made one dime directyy or indirectly from any of my postings.
Can you make the same statement?

It seems obvious that at this point, with all the instances of "computer glitches" in 2006 and prior elections, that any discussion of polling discrepancies from the reported vote count would discuss the F-R-A-U-D factor.

Now show us where it was discussed here:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Reply to OTOH post #59
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

TIA: ONCE AGAIN, OTOH, YOU COME UP SHORT

Don't you spend time at Pollster.com?
Then how did you miss this?

http://64.233.187.104/search?q=cache:zjC6OVUBA2kJ:...


THE 3 PROFESSORS INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRMED MY GENERIC PROJECTIONS.
THEY USED A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT APPROACH: A REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE 15 MOST RECENT MID-TERMS.

READ IT AND WEEP.

"To begin with, we estimate a regression equation predicting the House vote in the 15 most recent midterm elections, 1946-2002, from the average generic poll result during the last 30 days of each campaign. The generic polls turn out to be very good predictors, as we have shown".

October 27, 2006
Bafumi, Erikson & Wlezien: Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls

(Editor's note: Today's Guest Pollster's Corner contribution comes from Professors Joseph Bafumi of Dartmouth College, Robert S. Erikson of Columbia University and Christopher Wlezien of Temple University. The post is based on a larger paper available for download here).

Although the Democrats hold a large advantage in generic ballot polls, there has been considerable uncertainty regarding whether the Democrats would win the most House Seats. Doubts are often expressed about the accuracy of the generic ballot polls. How district lines are drawn raises further doubts about whether the Democrats could win a sufficient majority of the vote to win the most seats. We estimate how the generic ballot "vote" translates into the actual national vote for Congress and ultimately into the partisan division of seats in the House of Representatives. Based on current generic ballot polls, we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats with Democratic control (a gain of 15 seats or more) a near certainty.

To begin with, we estimate a regression equation predicting the House vote in the 15 most recent midterm elections, 1946-2002, from the average generic poll result during the last 30 days of each campaign. The generic polls turn out to be very good predictors, as we have shown. Based on the current average of the generic polls (57.7% Democratic, 42.3% Republican) the forecast from this equation is a 55% to 45% Democratic advantage in the popular vote (1).

But would this mean that the Democrats also win the most seats? The Democrats winning 55% of the vote would represent a 6.4 percentage point swing from 2004, when they received 48.6%. If Democrats were to win exactly 6.4% more of the 2006 vote in every district than they won in 2004, they would win 228 seats. However, an average swing of 6.4% percentage points will be spread unevenly-sometimes more than 6.4% and sometimes less. Moreover, the prediction that the average vote swing will be 6.4% is itself subject to error.

more...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.p...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.