ADDRESSING THE CRITICS
In this post, I will address the criticisms leveled at the data and assumptions
used here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2775205


Specifically, they were: 
1) the 1.50% Margin of Error (MoE), 
2) the 60% undecided vote allocation (UVA) and 
3) that using 116 Generic Polls (Sept. 2005- Nov.6, 2006) as a basis for
projecting the vote was not valid because the respondents were not asked: If
you could vote for your district representative today, who would you vote for,
the Democrat or the Republican? DUers suggested that instead they were asked:
which party would you prefer to see controlling congress? 

Let's first dispense with the third item. I checked the pollingreport.com site
from which I obtained the data. ALL 116 polls DID in fact ask the question: Who
will you vote for in your district, the Dem or the Rep? 
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm

To confirm this, I compared the first 20 polls in the POLLING DETAIL LIST to
the 116-POLL SUMMARY LIST TABLE. In the detail list, 16 pollsters asked
"Who will you vote for in your district, Dem or Rep"? Only 4 (NBC, LA
Times, Cook and Quinnipac) asked "Which party do you want to win the
Congress"? 

THE 4 POLLS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE 116-POLL SUMMARY TABLE. 
THE OTHER 16 POLLS WERE. 
THEREFORE, THE USE OF THE 116-GENERIC POLLS WAS VALID,

Pollingreport.com kept the apples away from the oranges.

These are the latest Generic Polls listed among the 116:
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Nov. 4-5, 2006. 
N=900 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
"Thinking ahead to this November's elections, if the congressional
election were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate in your
district or the Republican candidate in your district?" If unsure:
"Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?" 

CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Nov. 3-5, 2006. 
N=934 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 636 likely voters (MoE ± 4).
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's
candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic
Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If unsure:
"As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic Party's candidate or
the Republican Party's candidate?" 

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Nov. 2-5, 2006. 
N=1,362 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 
1,007 likely voters (MoE ± 4); 801 regular voters (MoE ± 4).
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's
candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic
Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If unsure:
"As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic Party's candidate or
the Republican Party's candidate?" 
 
ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Nov. 1-4, 2006. 
N=1,205 adults nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS.
"If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held
today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate
in your congressional district?" If other/unsure: "Would you lean
toward the Democratic candidate or toward the Republican candidate?"

Pew Research Center 
for the People & the Press Survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research
Associates International and Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas. 
Nov. 1-4, 2006. N=2,369 registered voters nationwide (MoE± 2.5); 
1,795 likely voters  (MoE ± 3). LV = likely voters. Except where noted, results
below are among registered voters.
"If the 2006 elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would
you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's
candidate for Congress in your district?" If other/unsure: "As of
TODAY, do you LEAN more to the Republican or the Democrat?"
					.	
Newsweek Poll 
conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. 
Nov. 2-3, 2006. N=1,206 adults nationwide (MoE ± 3), 1,045
registered voters (MoE ± 4), 838 likely voters (MoE ± 4).
"Suppose the elections for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY. Would
you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's
candidate for Congress in your district?" If other/unsure: "As of
TODAY, do you LEAN more toward the Republican or the Democrat?" 

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public
Affairs. Nov. 1-3, 2006. N=679 likely voters nationwide.
" If the election for Congress were being held today, would you
be more likely to vote for (did you vote for) the Republican candidate or
the Democratic candidate in the district where you live?" If
unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican Party's
candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress?"
						.
CBS News/New York Times Poll. Oct. 27-31, 2006. N=598 likely voters
nationwide. MoE ± 4 (for all likely voters).
"If the 2006 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being
held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic
candidate in your district?"


DATA > ASSUMPTIONS > ANALYSIS > LOGIC
Given that the 2006 pre-election Generic polls and recorded vote tally are
accurate, the assumptions plausible and the mathematical analysis flawless ,
then the logical conclusion is that there was an astronomically high
probability that the 2006 elections were rigged in favor of the Republicans.
However, the GOP could not overcome the Democratic Tsunami and steal enough
votes to win the House. But the fraud appears to have been sufficient to cut
the Democratic majority by almost half to 27 seats (231-204), when compared to
the projected majority of 49 (242-193). At least 11 seats appear to have been
stolen. FL-13 is just one example.

THE GENERICS WERE PRE-ELECTION POLLS, NOT EXIT POLLS
There were quite a few DUers who did not focus on the fact that the 116 Generic
polls were pre-election polls, NOT exit polls. Any discussion about reluctant
responders, false recall or other exit poll bias is irrelevant. This was NOT an
Exit Poll analysis. Any posts which referred to exits should never have entered
the discussion. The purpose of the analysis was to compare 116 Generic polls to
the actual vote. 

Some made the claim that Generic polls are not useful for projecting votes. If
that were so, WHY do a Generic poll at all? Why did polling blogs cover them at
all. These were not exit polls which attempt to analyze voting demographics. A
Generic Poll asks one very specific question: if the election was held today in
YOUR congressional district, who would YOU vote for, the Democrat or the
Republican? What could be more clear? What could be more specific? Those who
claim that polling organizations conduct Generic Polls for anything OTHER than
projecting the final vote count are really reaching. All 116 polls in the list
asked the question: "Who will you vote for in your district, Dem or
Rep"?

THE PROJECTED DEMOCRATIC VOTE SHARE
The projected Democratic vote share was based on the trend line of ALL 116
Generic polls taken from Sept. 2005 up to Election Day. The Democrats won ALL
116 polls by an average 13.24% margin, 51.84D-38.60R, with 2% going to 3rd
party candidates. I allocated 60% (UVA) of the 7.56% undecided voters to the
Democrats. The final projection was 56.34D-41.62R, a 14.72% margin.

THE MOE ASSUMPTION
One DUer made the following statement regarding the analysis: "Nowhere
does it show how that polling sample would be 25% less variable than a standard
poll, which almost always round DOWN (due to sample size) to 2%. That would
inflate the distribution of the final analysis by a factor of 4/3 which moves
the tails farther from the mean. Since the distributions are not linear, at
that end of the curve, it could move the probabilities out by a factor of more
than 100".

Here's why the 1.5% MoE was justified: I used the FINAL COMBINED 10 polls to
calculate the MoE. There were 1000 sampled in each poll. Ten (10) INDEPENDENT
Final Generic Polls are essentially equivalent to ONE poll of 10,000 sample
size. The MoE for a 10,000 sample is near 1.0%.  So the 1.5% MoE assumption was
a conservative one. 

The formula used to calculate MoE is:
MoE = 1.96*standard error = 1.96*SQRT((1-p)*p)/n)
For p=.56 and n= 10,000 sample-size, MoE = 0.97%.

AVERAGING POLLS
Generic polls are designed to sample representative congressional districts.
They all ask the same question. Calculating an average trend line or arithmetic
mean gives us greater confidence that the sample mean is close to the true
population mean. Is there anyone who will question the Law Of Large Numbers and
the Central Limit Theorem.  

This needs repeating: we are analyzing the discrepancy between a 116
pre-election poll trend line (adjusted for the undecided vote allocation) and
the reported vote. THIS WAS NOT AN EXIT POLL ANALYSIS. EXIT POLL BIAS IS NOT AN
ISSUE. 

UNDECIDED VOTER ALLOCATION
A DUer said: "Secondly, there is a broad unsupportable assumption that 60%
of the undecideds would vote dem. Since the dems didn't get 60% of the total
vote, that is an assumption for which there is ZERO basis in fact. Since the
"undecideds" were a statistically significant portion of the sample,
the entire rest of the analysis hinges COMPLETELY on that assumption". 

Both statements are false:
1) In a study of 155 elections, the CHALLENGER won the undecided vote in 82% of
them; the incumbent won 12%. So there was indeed a significant basis in fact
that the Democrats would win 60% of undecided vote. After all, they led the
average 2-party Generic poll with 57%. Why was it a reach to assume they would
win 60% of the undecided? In the 2006 election, there was a strong incentive to
kick the Republicans out. It was a referendum on Bush (33% approval) and Iraq. 

Read about the 155 election study here:
http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

2) It's a misnomer to suggest that the ENTIRE analysis hinged on UVA.
The 60% UVA assumption was in fact a conservative one. The average Democratic
2-party Generic vote was 57.3%. Even assuming a totally implausible 50/50
undecided voter split, the probability that the election was fair is close to
zero(see the Sensitivity analysis table below). 

Lou Harris, a world-class pollster with 40 years experience, said this in 2004
regarding the late undecided vote:
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=515 

PROJECTION = TREND+ UVA
Assuming a 60% UVA, the model projected a 14.76% Democratic margin.
Calculating the projected vote share:

.......Trend+ UVA = Projection
Dem: 51.84+ 4.54 = 56.38%
GOP: 38.60+ 3.02 = 41.62%
Other: 2.0%

Assuming a 50/50% UVA split, which is completely unrealistic in light of the
the historical evidence, the projected 13.24% Democratic margin is equal to the
trend before UVA:

.......Trend+ UVA = Projection
Dem: 51.84+ 3.78 = 55.62%
GOP: 38.60+ 3.78 = 42.38%



The DUer commented: "Without acquiring the whole data set and doing a more
supportable analysis, I would estimate the final conclusion to be off by a
factor of AT LEAST 100,000".

To disprove this statement, I recalculated the probability of the Democratic
vote discrepancy for the 50/50 UVA split. This resulted in a 5.3% discrepancy
between the Democratic projected vote (55.6%) and the reported vote (51.3%).

Probability = 8.292E-09 = NORMDIST(0.513,0.5562,0.015/1.96,TRUE) 
or 1 in 120,604,893

The probability was reduced from 1 in 76 billion to 1 in 120 million. The
reduction factor is 633 which is much lower than the 100,000 estimate. 

AVERAGING THE POLLS
It makes perfect sense to average the Final 10 Generic polls.
This is implicit recognition of the Law of Large Numbers.
Polling blogs average the latest polls for a more accurate estimate. 
Pollsters know the Law.

Real Clear Politics averaged the latest 3-5 House and Senate polls: 
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/election_2006-21.html

Pollster.com averaged the Final 8 Generic polls. 
The Democrats had an average 11.6% margin.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/


THE FINAL 10 GENERIC POLLS
Let's now focus on the Final 10 Generic polls.
The 10-poll average was 52.2D-39.6R, a 12.6% margin. 
.............DEM	GOP  Margin
Average..... 52.2    39.6 12.6

CNN	1029	53	42  11
NBC	1030	52	37  15
CBS	1101	52	33  19
Nwk 	1103	54	38  16
TIME	1103	55	40  15
.
Pew	1104	47	43   4
ABC	1104	51	45   6
USA	1106	51	44   7
CNN	1106	58	38  20
FOX	1106	49	36  13

Using the final 10-polls and assuming a 60% UVA and 1.50% MoE, the probability
of the Democratic vote discrepancy is 1 in 1.3 Billion. Compare the probability
to the 1 in 76 Billion probability using the 116-poll trend line. The difference
is due to the lower average Democratic margin. Three of the final ten polls
(Pew, ABC and USA Today) appear to be outliers when compared to the rest.

UNCERTAINTY IN UVA AND MOE
Now we will address the uncertainty in UVA and MoE using SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS.
The COMBINED MoE for the latest 10-polls (10,000 sample-size) is 1.0%. This is
a theoretical, formula-based MoE. It's the one which SHOULD be used in the
probability calculation. 

The 1.0% MoE results in a probability of 1 in 450 TRILLION, EVEN ASSUMING A
50/50 SPLIT IN THE UNDECIDED VOTE. Although the probability is MATHEMATICALLY
CORRECT, given the MoE and UVA assumptions, it will surely invite even more
derision than the 1 in 76 billion probability estimate based on the 1.50% MoE
in the original analysis. 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 
Calculate the probability of the Democratic vote discrepancy from the average
of the latest 10 Generic Polls for various MoE and UVA.
.
10-poll MoE is 1% (10,000 sample)
UVA: Undecided voter allocation to Democrats			
.
UVA	50%	55%	60%	65%	70%	75%
Margin 4.0%	4.3%	4.6%	4.9%	5.2%	5.6%
.
MoE     Probability: 1 in X (in table)				
1.00%	450t	nc	nc	nc	nc	nc
1.25%	5.6b	142b	4.5t	183t	9007t	 nc
1.50%	11m	111m	1.3b	176b  264b	4.8t
1.75%	267k	1.4m	8.7m	59m	454m	3.9b
2.00%	23k   83k   334k  1.4m	7m    37m
.
2.25%	4k	11k	 35k	114k	399k	1.5m
2.50%	1.2K	2.7k	6.8k	18k	50k	147k
2.75%	459	940	2k    4.5k	11k	26k
3.00%	223	411	787	1.6k	3.2k	6.9k

nc: not-calculable, t:trillion, b:billion, m:million, k:thousand

PLAYING WHAT-IF
From the table, assuming a 2.0% MoE and a totally unrealistic 50% UVA, the
probability is 1 in 23,000 that the election was NOT rigged. Assuming a 65%
UVA, the probability is 1 in 1.4 million.

Assuming the combined 10-poll 1.0% MoE and a 50% UVA, the probability that the
election was NOT rigged is: 1 in 450 TRILLION. 

Did we use a theoretically correct MoE? Yes. It's 1% for a 10,000 sample.
Was it a conservative UVA assumption? Yes, without a doubt. It's 50%. 
Does it compute? Yes. It's 1 in 450 TRILLION.
Do you believe it? No?
Do you believe Florida-13 was stolen?

If you want to use a different set of assumptions, check the probability
matrix. It is strong circumstantial evidence of fraud. It confirms the many
reported incidents of missing votes and voting machine "glitches"
which ALWAYS seem to favor Republicans.

Who still believes that the 2006 election was NOT rigged? Just based on the
thousands of incidents reported, there is a high probability of fraud. The only
question is the MAGNITUDE of the fraud, not WHETHER there was fraud. The above
analysis ESTIMATED the extent of the fraud in percentage and probability terms.
It was based on publicly available DATA, a few reasonable ASSUMPTIONS and the
use of APPLIED MATHEMATICS.

THE TRACK RECORD
My 2004 election model exactly matched the 12:22am National Exit Poll.
I have shown that the Final 2004 NEP is a mathematical impossibility.
The impossible Final NEP was matched to the recorded vote.
What does this tell you about the recorded vote?
Was the 2004 election rigged?

My 2006 House election model projected that the Democrats would gain at least
42 of 61 GOP-held House seats in a fraud-free election; they've gained 29 so
far. The model also projected that about 15 of the 61 seats would be stolen.
The Senate model projected that the Dems would win 6 seats. They've won 6, but
at least two (MT and VA) were almost stolen. 
Were the 2006 mid-terms rigged?

My independent analysis has closely matched that of Steve Freeman, Ron Baiman,
Kathy Dopp, Jonathan Simon, Bruce O'Dell, Michael Keefer, Bob Fitrakis, RFK
Jr., Greg Palast, John Conyers and others. I'm in good company.

My models may not be perfect, but they have proven quite accurate.

FINAL COMMENTS
Your comments are welcome - if they critique the analysis.
Don't refer to the analysis as "crap". You just demean yourself.  

Don't criticize my usage of Excel. 
Excel can do everything - if you know how to use it. 

Don't expect that this post will be peer-reviewed.
Interested parties can review it on their own.

Most pollsters/bloggers never consider the possibility of fraud.
They always assume the vote count is accurate and the polls are off.
Not a good assumption, especially when a Bush is running.

I've been analyzing elections since the first Bush/Scotus theft.
I've been an analytic software developer in engineering, finance and
investments for more years than many DUers have lived.


 

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Thank you for all of your great work. Happy Thanksgiving TIA. I am thankful for your work and your presence with us.

You who have wept 2000 years
For one who agonized for 3 days and 3 nights

What tears will you have left
For those who agonized
Far more than 300 nights and far more than 300 days?
How hard
Shall you weep
For those who agonized through so many agonies
And they were countless

They did not believe in resurrection to eternal life
And knew you would not weep.

All 116 polls listed in this summary asked the question:
Who will you vote for in your district, Dem or Rep"?

http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm


Of the latest 10 polls listed in detail:
9 asked "Who will you vote for in your district, Dem or Rep"?
1 NBC asked" Which party do you want to win the Congress"

2006 Congressional Election, including generic ballot trends  See also: Ballot
summary table

Polls listed chronologically

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Nov. 4-5, 2006. N=900 likely voters nationwide.
MoE ± 3.
					.	
"Thinking ahead to this November's elections, if the congressional
election were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate in your
district or the Republican candidate in your district?" If unsure:
"Well, if you had to vote, which way would you lean?" Options rotated
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Unsure		
		%	%	%		
	11/4-5/06	36	49	15		

CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Nov. 3-5, 2006. N=934
registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 636 likely voters (MoE ± 4).
					.	
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's
candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic
Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If unsure:
"As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic Party's candidate or
the Republican Party's candidate?" Options rotated
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)	Unsure	 
		%	%	%	%	 
	Among likely voters:
	11/3-5/06	38	58	2	2	

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Nov. 2-5, 2006. N=1,362 registered voters nationwide
(MoE ± 3); 1,007 likely voters (MoE ± 4); 801 regular voters (MoE ± 4).
					.	
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's
candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic
Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If unsure:
"As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic Party's candidate or
the Republican Party's candidate?" Options rotated
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)/
Unsure		
		%	%	%		
	Among likely voters:
	11/2-5/06	44	51	5		

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Nov. 1-4, 2006. N=1,205 adults nationwide.
Fieldwork by TNS.
LV = likely voters (and early voters). RV = registered voters.
					.	
"If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held
today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate
in your congressional district?" If other/unsure: "Would you lean
toward the Democratic candidate or toward the Republican candidate?"
Options rotated
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Neither/
Other (vol.)	Unsure	Won't
Vote (vol.)
		%	%	%	%	%
	11/1-4/06 LV	45	51	2	2	-

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by
Princeton Survey Research Associates International and Schulman, Ronca &
Bucuvalas. Nov. 1-4, 2006. N=2,369 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5);
1,795 likely voters  (MoE ± 3). (All prior surveys conducted by Princeton
Survey Research Associates International, except July 2006 survey conducted by
Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas.)
LV = likely voters. Except where noted, results below are among registered
voters.
					.	
"If the 2006 elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you
vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate
for Congress in your district?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you
LEAN more to the Republican or the Democrat?"
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)/
Unsure	 	
		%	%	%	 	
	11/1-4/06 LV	43	47	10	 	
						
Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International.
Nov. 2-3, 2006. N=1,206 adults nationwide (MoE ± 3), 1,045 registered voters
(MoE ± 4), 838 likely voters (MoE ± 4).
					.	
"Suppose the elections for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY. Would you
vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate
for Congress in your district?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you
LEAN more toward the Republican or the Democrat?" Options rotated
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)/
Unsure	 	
		%	%	%	 	
	Among likely voters:
	11/2-3/06	38	54	8		

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs.
Nov. 1-3, 2006. N=679 likely voters nationwide.
						.
". . . If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be
more likely to vote for (did you vote for) the Republican candidate or the
Democratic candidate in the district where you live? . . ." If unsure:
"As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican Party's candidate or
the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress?"
						.
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)	Unsure	 
		%	%	%	%	 
	11/1-3/06	40	55	1	3	 
	Active voters, excluding leaners:
	6/27-29/06	35	47	6	12	

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Oct. 27-31, 2006. N=598 likely voters nationwide.
MoE ± 4 (for all likely voters).
					.	
"If the 2006 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held
today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate
in your district?"
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)	Depends
(vol.)	Won't Vote
(vol.)/Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	ALL likely voters	34	52	1	5	8
	  Republicans	84	6	1	5	4
	  Democrats	3	90	1	2	4
	  Independents	23	50	1	10	16


NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of
Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Oct. 28-30, 2006. N=1,010 registered
voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
************					.	
"What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional
elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by
Democrats?"
					.	
		Controlled by
Republicans	Controlled by
Democrats	Unsure	 	
		%	%	%	 	
	10/28-30/06	37	52	11		



Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll. Oct. 26-29, 2006. N=1,764 registered
voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.3), 807 most-likely voters (MoE ± 3.5).
RV = registered voters. MLV = most-likely voters. Except where noted, results
below are among all adults.
*******					.	
"Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in November,
regardless of how you might plan to vote in your own district, which party
would you like to see in control of Congress after the congressional elections
in November: the Democrats or the Republicans?" If other/unsure:
"Well, which way do you lean: more toward the Democrats or the
Republicans?" Options rotated
					.	
		Republicans	Democrats	Other (vol.)	Unsure	 
		%	%	%	%	 
	10/26-29/06 MLV	35	61	2	2	


Associated Press-AOL News poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. Oct. 20-25,
2006. N=1,621 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.4), 970 likely voters (MoE
± 3.1).
LV = likely voters. RV = registered voters. Except where noted, results below
are among all adults.
					.	
"If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, would
you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your congressional
district?" If none/unsure: "Do you lean more towards the Democratic
or Republican candidate in your district?" Options rotated
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)	Unsure	Won't Vote
(vol.)
		%	%	%	%	%
	10/20-25/06 LV	37	56	1	6	1


The Harris Poll. Oct. 20-23, 2006. N=1,000 adults nationwide (MoE ± 3), 795
likely voters.
LV = likely voters. Except where noted, results below are among all adults.
					.	
"If the election for Congress were being held today, would you be voting
for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?"
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)	Unsure	 
		%	%	%	%	 
	10/20-23/06 LV	33	47	14	6	


Reuters/Zogby America Poll. Oct. 20-23, 2006. N=1,013 likely voters nationwide.
MoE ± 3.1.
					.	
"In the congressional race in 2006, for which party's candidate do you
intend to vote: Democrat or Republican?" Options rotated
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Neither (vol.)	Unsure	
		%	%	%	%	
	10/20-23/06	33	44	4	19	


Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted by Financial Dynamics. Oct. 19-23, 2006. N=1,000
registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3.1); 580 likely voters (MoE ± 4.1). LV =
likely voters. Except where noted, results below are among registered voters

And, thinking about the next election for U.S. Congress, if the election for
U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate
or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?" Options
rotated
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Neither (vol.)	Unsure	
		%	%	%	%	
	10/19-23/06 LV	34	52	3	10	

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 20-22, 2006. N=923 registered voters nationwide.
MoE ± 4 (for all likely voters).
					.	
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's
candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic
Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If unsure:
"As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic Party's candidate or
the Republican Party's candidate?" Options rotated
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)/
Unsure		
		%	%	%		
	Among likely voters:
	10/20-22/06	41	54	5		


George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted by the Tarrance Group
(R) and Lake Research Partners (D). Sept. 24-27, 2006. N=1,000 likely voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
					.	
"Now turning to the election for Congress that will be held in November
2006: If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a
choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic
candidate in your district?" If unsure: "And which party's candidate
do you lean toward at this time?" Options rotated
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Unsure		
		%	%	%		
	9/24-27/06	41	49	10		

Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. Sept. 16-19, 2006. N=1,347 registered voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.	
"If the election for Congress was being held today, which party would you
like to see win in your congressional district: the Democratic Party or the
Republican Party?" Results include leaners
					.	
		Republican
Party	Democratic
Party	Other (vol.)	Neither (vol.)	Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	9/16-19/06	39	49	1	2	9

Quinnipiac University Poll. Aug. 17-23, 2006. N=1,080 registered voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3.
					.	
"What is your preference for the outcome of the November 2006
congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress
controlled by Democrats?"
					.	
		Republicans	Democrats	Unsure	 	
		%	%	%	 	
	8/17-23/06	39	48	13		


Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (R) for the National School Boards
Association. May 15-17, 2006. N=1,200 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.8.
					.	
"And if the election for Congress were held today, would you be more
likely to vote for the Republican or Democrat candidate in your district?"
Options rotated
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Unsure		
		%	%	%		
	5/15-17/06	36	39	25		



National Public Radio Poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). March 12-14, 2006. N=800 likely voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
					.	
"I know it is far ahead, but thinking about this year's elections, if the
election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the
Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you
live?" Includes leaners
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)	Unsure	
		%	%	%	%	
	3/12-14/06	37	52	1	10	


Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Feb.
23-27, 2006. N=1,135 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.9.
					.	
"I know it is far ahead, but thinking about the elections this November,
if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the
Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you
live?"
					.	
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)	Unsure	
		%	%	%	%	
	2/23-27/06	40	48	1	11	

Zogby America Poll. Dec. 6-8, 2005. N=1,013 likely voters nationwide. MoE ±
3.1.
						.
"In the election for congress next year, for whom will you vote --
definitely for the Republican, probably for the Republican, definitely for the
Democrat, or probably for the Democrat?" Options rotated
						.
		Definitely
Republican	Probably
Republican	Definitely
Democrat	Probably
Democrat	Other (vol.)/
Unsure
		%	%	%	%	%
	12/6-8/05	16	24	26	22	12

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

to rewrite the true story on these. It had be confused for a while. This really
helps me understand even more the strength of your analysis.

Mother Earth is very, very sick. I must get very, very quiet and listen. ...

The most common way people give up their power is by thinking theydon't have any.—Alice Walker


TRUTH AND JUSTICE RADIO: http://www.truthandjusticeradio.org
<a href="http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/iraq/iraqdeaths.h..."><img src="" alt="Just Foreign Policy Iraqi Death Estimator"

This is an 11/25 data/analysis update for the Final 10 Generic (GP) polls.

1)The previous version included an NBC poll which did NOT ask the question: who
who will you vote for district representative, the Democrat or the Republican?
It was replaced by the Harris poll. The 10/29 CNN poll was replaced by the
10/30 AP poll. Now 10 distinct pollsters are represented.

2) New: GP poll sample-size, calculated MoE, standard deviation, variance.
3) Projected 2-party GP Dem and GOP average vote shares.
4) Dem vote share, deviation and margin corresponding to UVA.
5) The 56.1% UVA assumption was added. This UVA exactly matched the pre-UVA
projected Dem vote share. Post-UVA vote shares do not change.

Assuming a 56.1% UVA, these are the probabilities for various MoE assumptions:
MoE....Probability
1.5%: 1 in 5.4 billion
2.0%: 1 in 766 thousand
2.5%: 1 in 12 thousand
3.0%: 1 in 1.2 thousand

Note: There has been criticism of my contention that the calculated 1.0% MoE
for the combined 10-poll sample-size of 9409 is theoretically sound. But that
argument ignores the often-used poll-of-polls methodology to derive a closer
approximation to the population mean. The Generic polls were independent and
each one sampled from the same population at nearly the same point in time. 

Although sample-size, MoE, standard deviation and variance obviously differed
in each poll (see below), it is pure nit-picking to assume that the aggregate
10-poll sample MoE is not a valid estimation parameter due to polling variance.
The combined poll-of-polls is not only intuitively sound,it's an implicit
recognition of the Law of Large Numbers. And the elegant Central Limit Theorem
is icing on the cake. Even if the theoretical UNDERLYING DISTRIBUTION of each
polling sample differed (which they don't), in the LIMIT the SAMPLE
DISTRIBUTION OF THE MEAN IS NORMALLLY DISTRIBUTED AND CONVERGES TO THE
POPULATION MEAN AS THE NUMBER OF SAMPLES (i.e. POLLS) INCREASE. 

Final 10 Generic Polls
		DEM	GOP	Size	2-pty	MoE	Std	Var
Total	Poll	52	38.7	9409	57.33%	1.00%	0.51%	0.28%
Avg	End	52	38.7	941	57.38%	3.27%	1.67%	0.028%
								
Har	1023	47	33	795	58.8%	3.42%	1.75%	0.030%
AP	1030	56	37	970	60.2%	3.08%	1.57%	0.025%
CBS	1101	52	33	598	61.2%	3.91%	1.99%	0.040%
Nwk 	1103	54	38	828	58.7%	3.35%	1.71%	0.029%
TIME	1103	55	40	679	57.9%	3.71%	1.89%	0.036%

Pew	1104	47	43	1795	52.2%	2.31%	1.18%	0.014%
ABC	1104	51	45	1201	53.1%	2.82%	1.44%	0.021%
USA	1106	51	44	1007	53.7%	3.08%	1.57%	0.025%
CNN	1106	58	38	636	60.4%	3.80%	1.94%	0.038%
FOXC	1106  49	36	900	57.6%	3.23%	1.65%	0.027%

Und	7.30%						
UVA 	56.10%					

		DEM	GOP	Total	Margin			
	Avg	52.0%	38.7%	90.7%	13.30%			
	2-pty	57.3%	42.7%	100%  14.7%
				
	Proj	56.1%	41.9%	98.0%	14.2%			
	Vote	51.3%	46.4%	97.7%	 4.9%			
       Dev	-4.8%	 4.5%	-0.3%	-9.3%
							
Probability of Democratic Vote Deviation						
Sensitivity Analysis 						
10-poll MoE: 1.0%			

.................UVA to Democrats			
UVA	50%	56.1%	60%	65%	70%	75%
						
Dev	 4.35%  4.80% 	 5.08%  5.45%  5.81%  6.18%
Vote	55.65%	56.10%	56.38%	56.75%	57.11%	57.48%
Margin 13.30%	14.19%	14.76%	15.49%	16.22%	16.95%

MoE	 Probability (1 in X) of Democratic Vote Deviationm 					
1.25%	219b	36t	1286t	nc	nc	nc
1.50%	151m	5.4b	62b	1.8t	63t	3002t

1.75%	1.8m	25m	157m	1.9b	26b	428b
2.00%	99k	766k	3.1m	21m	161m	1.4b

2.25%	13k	68k	207k	950k	4.8m	27m
2.50%	3k	12k	29k	102k	381k	1.5m

2.75%	1.0k	3.2k	6.8k	19k	58k	186k
3.00%	446	1.2k	2.2k	5.3k	13.6k	37k
						
k=thousand, m=million, b=billion, t=trillion

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Febble  (1000+ posts)       Fri Nov-24-06 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #20 
27. Well, if you want to calculate the odds  you can't use either the pooled
number of voters, or the MoE for one poll.  What we need is a meta-analysis. We
know, from the between poll variance, that there was non-sampling error
in those polls.  Let's assume, for the purposes of the calculation, that that
error was of a type that would have had a net value of zero (cancelled out) and
a normal distribution.  As the standard error of in each poll was
similar, we can simply take the margin between the candidates
as a measure of effect size.

Here are the margins of the ten polls, using TIA's figures:

	Margin  dev	    z	    p	  1/p
CNN	11.0%	-0.016	-0.29  0.385 	 1 in 3 
NBC	15.0%	 0.024	 0.44  0.669 	 1 in 1 
CBS	19.0%	 0.064	 1.17  0.879 	 1 in 1
Nwk	16.0%	 0.034	 0.62  0.732 	 1 in 1
TIME	15.0%	 0.024	 0.44  0.669 	 1 in 1
Pew	 4.0%	-0.086	-1.57  0.058 	 1 in 17 
ABC	 6.0%	-0.066	-1.20  0.114 	 1 in 9 
USA	 7.0%	-0.056	-1.02  0.153 	 1 in 7 
CNN	20.0%	 0.074	 1.35  0.911 	 1 in 1 
Fox	13.0%	 0.004	 0.07  0.529 	 1 in 2 

mean	12.6%				
st.dev	5.5%				

count   5.10%	-0.075	-1.37 	 0.086 	 1 in 12 


The mean margin is 12.6 points, and the standard deviation of
the margins is 5.5.  The third column gives the deviation of
each poll from the mean.  The fourth column is the z score of
that deviation (i.e. how many standard deviations from the
mean that poll was). The fifth column tells you the
probability of that margin occurring by chance in a random
sample of polls, given the between poll variance.  The last
column is just the inverse of the probability.

So the question is: how far was the counted result from the
mean of polls?  Well, it was 1.37 standard deviations less
than the mean.  In other words, if the error in polls was
randomly distributed about the true mean, then you'd expect
to see that kind of discrepancy 1 in 12 times, using polls
drawn at random.

So my estimate is 1 in 12.

Now, obviously we do not draw polls at random.  We have a
finite population of polls.  And the mean non-sampling error
in those polls is clearly substantial.  In other words, some
of the polls were BIASED. The problem is, we do not know
which of the polls were biased, nor by how much.  The least
biased could have been Pew, in which case the Democrats did
slightly better than the poll.  Or it could have been CNN, in
which case the Democrats did considerably worse than the poll.

But we cannot tell from these data which polls had how much
bias.  What we can tell is that some of them had some.  TIA's
own data is evidence of the kind of non-sampling error in
polls he repeatedly assumes does not exist.

But this tells us absolutely nothing about fraud in 2006. 
Which is why I wish people would stop dazzling themselves
with improbable probability estimates and concentrate on
collating the copious amounts of data that is flooding in
about voter suppression, undervotes, "glitches" and
evidence that may amount to outright fraud.

I'd like to see prosecutions for those robocalls and push
polls for a start.  



TIA
_______________________________________

Febble, a 1 in 12 probability?
You can't be serious.

Here are the individual probabilities for the 10 polls.
The probability is a function of the discrepancy in vote share and the MoE.
The vote shares for the actual votes and each poll were converted to their
2-party equivalent.

For example,CNN: The deviation from the Democratic 2-party poll (55.8%) to the
52.5% vote was 3.3% The standard deviation is 1.75%, which is the MoE/1.96.
The MoE is 3.43% = 1.96 * 1.75%

The probability of the 3.3% deviation is 1 in 33
Prob = NORMDIST(0.5251,0.558,0.0175,TRUE)
 
Actual 2-pty 10-poll average					
Dem	52.51%	57.0%				
Rep	47.49%	43.0%				

Diff = 2-party vote/poll discrepancy

	Actual	2-party Poll Diff		Deviation	
	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	Dem	StDev	Prob	      1 in
CNN	53	42	55.8%	44.2%	-3.3%	1.75%	3.02E-02	33
NBC	52	37	58.4%	41.6%	-5.9%	1.57%	8.33E-05	12,008
CBS	52	33	61.2%	38.8%	-8.7%	1.99%	6.85E-06	145,889
NWK 	54	36	60.0%	40.0%	-7.5%	1.71%	6.02E-06	166,237
TIME	55	40	57.9%	42.1%	-5.4%	1.89%	2.24E-03	446

Pew	47	43	52.2%	47.8%	 0.3%	1.18%	5.96E-01	2
ABC	51	45	53.1%	46.9%	-0.6%	1.44%	3.35E-01	3
USA	51	44	53.7%	46.3%	-1.2%	1.57%	2.27E-01	4
CNN	58	38	60.4%	39.6%	-7.9%	1.94%	2.28E-05	43,900
FOX	49	36	57.6%	42.4%	-5.1%	1.65%	9.08E-04	1,102

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

undergrad stat classes, he is relying on people being completely uninformed on
how statistics are analyzed and is full of shit.  Sadly I think it is probably
a lost cause: too many "experts" trying to debunk your findings to a
group already inclined to accept that there was no fraud.  Screw them.

-Mr Nice Guy

Here are 120 Generic Polls, sorted by date: 
Sept. 5, 2005 to Nov.6, 2006.
The Democrats won ALL 120 POLLS.

Data Source:
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm

The Democratic vote share increased by 4.8% over the 14 month time period
Since the GOP trend had ZERO slope, the projected Democratic margin increased
4.8% from Sept. 2005 to Election Day.

This is a linear regression time series graph.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_16921_image001.png											
Undecided voter allocation (UVA):60% to the Democrats
		
					              5-poll Moving Average	   Projection			
Poll	Survey       Dates	DEM	GOP	Other	Diff	DemMA	GOPMA	Dem	GOP	Diff	DiffMA
Number	     Average	All	49.5	38.3	12.1	11.2	49.5	38.3	56.8	43.2	13.6	13.6

2005											

1	  Newsweek RV.	905	50	38	12	12	50.0	38.0	57.2	42.8	14.4	14.4
2	  Pew RV......	911	52	40	8	12	51.0	39.0	57.0	43.0	14.0	14.2
3	  DemCorp LV..	921	48	39	13	9	50.0	39.0	56.6	43.4	13.2	13.9
4	  Newsweek RV.	930	47	42	11	5	49.3	39.8	55.9	44.2	11.7	13.3
5	  DemCorp LV..	1010	46	41	14	5	48.6	40.0	55.4	44.6	10.9	12.8

6	  GWU LV......	1012	47	41	13	6	48.0	40.6	54.8	45.2	9.7	11.9
7	  Hotline RV..	1016	40	31	29	9	45.6	38.8	55.0	45.0	9.9	11.1
8	  DemCorp LV..	1023	48	39	12	9	45.6	38.8	55.0	45.0	9.9	10.4
9	  Gallup RV...	1023	50	43	7	7	46.2	39.0	55.1	44.9	10.2	10.1
10	  ABC/WP RV...	1102	52	37	12	15	47.4	38.2	56.0	44.0	12.1	10.4

11	  DemCorp LV..	1106	48	40	12	8	47.6	38.0	56.2	43.8	12.5	10.9
12	  Newsweek RV.	1105	53	36	11	17	50.2	39.0	56.7	43.3	13.4	11.6
13	  Hotline RV..	1115	41	35	24	6	48.8	38.2	56.6	43.4	13.2	12.3
14	  DemCorp LV..	1120	48	41	11	7	48.4	37.8	56.7	43.3	13.4	12.9
15	  Time RV....	1201	48	36	15	12	47.6	37.6	56.5	43.5	13.0	13.1

16	  DemCorp LV..	1204	49	39	12	10	47.8	37.4	56.7	43.3	13.4	13.2
17	  CBS/NYT RV.	1206	42	33	25	9	45.6	36.8	56.2	43.8	12.3	13.0
18	  DemCorp LV..	1212	49	41	9	8	47.2	38.0	56.1	43.9	12.2	12.8
19	  Hotline RV… 1213	43	33	25	10	46.2	36.4	56.6	43.4	13.3	12.8
20	  NPR LV....  1218	45	37	17	8	45.6	36.6	56.3	43.7	12.6	12.7
21	  ABC/WP RV...	1218	51	41	9	10	46.0	37.0	56.2	43.8	12.4	12.5

2006

22	  Gallup RV...	108	49	43	8	6	47.4	39.0	55.6	44.4	11.1	12.3
23	  CBS/NYT RV.	125	43	34	23	9	46.2	37.6	55.9	44.1	11.8	12.2
24	  DemCorp LV..	125	49	41	10	8	47.4	39.2	55.4	44.6	10.9	11.8
25	  ABC/WP RV...	126	54	38	9	16	49.2	39.4	56.0	44.0	12.1	11.7

26	  Pew RV......	205	50	41	9	9	49.0	39.4	56.0	44.0	11.9	11.6
27	  Gallup RV...	212	50	43	8	7	49.2	39.4	56.0	44.0	12.1	11.8
28	  GWU LV......	215	46	41	14	5	49.8	40.8	55.4	44.6	10.9	11.6
29	  Hotline RV..	219	46	31	23	15	49.2	38.8	56.4	43.6	12.8	12.0
30	  DemCorp LV..	227	48	40	12	8	48.0	39.2	55.7	44.3	11.4	11.8

31	  Gallup RV...	301	53	39	7	14	48.6	38.8	56.2	43.8	12.3	11.9
32	  FOX LV.....	301	48	34	18	14	48.2	37.0	57.1	42.9	14.2	12.3
33	  Gallup RV...	312	55	39	7	16	50.0	36.6	58.0	42.0	16.1	13.3
34	  NPR LV.....  314	52	37	11	15	51.2	37.8	57.8	42.2	15.6	13.9
35	  Newsweek RV.	317	50	39	11	11	51.6	37.6	58.1	41.9	16.2	14.9

36	  Time RV....	323	50	41	9	9	51.0	38.0	57.6	42.4	15.2	15.4
37	  CBS RV	409	44	34	22	10	50.2	38.0	57.3	42.7	14.6	15.5
38	  ABC/WP RV...	409	55	40	5	15	50.2	38.2	57.2	42.8	14.3	15.2
39	  Gallup RV...	409	52	42	6	10	50.2	39.2	56.6	43.4	13.1	14.7
40	  Pew RV......	416	51	41	8	10	50.4	39.6	56.4	43.6	12.8	14.0

41	  CNN RV .....	423	50	40	9	10	50.4	39.4	56.5	43.5	13.0	13.6
42	  Cook………	430	44	32	24	12	50.4	39.0	56.8	43.2	13.5	13.4
43	  Gallup RV...	430	54	39	7	15	50.2	38.8	56.8	43.2	13.6	13.2
44	  FOX LV.....	503	41	38	21	3	48.0	38.0	56.4	43.6	12.8	13.2
45	  CNN RV .....	507	52	38	10	14	48.2	37.4	56.8	43.2	13.7	13.3

46	  CBS/NYT RV.	508	44	33	23	11	47.0	36.0	57.2	42.8	14.4	13.6
47	  Newsweek RV.	512	50	39	11	11	48.2	37.4	56.8	43.2	13.7	13.6
48	  ABC/WP RV...	515	52	40	9	12	47.8	37.6	56.6	43.4	13.1	13.5
49	  Fabrizio LV.	517	39	36	25	3	47.4	37.2	56.6	43.4	13.3	13.6
50	  Hotline RV..	521	42	36	22	6	45.4	36.8	56.1	43.9	12.2	13.3

51	  Gallup RV...	604	51	42	7	9	46.8	38.6	55.6	44.4	11.1	12.7
52	  Gallup RV...	611	51	39	10	12	47.0	38.6	55.6	44.4	11.3	12.2
53	  FOX LV.....	614	46	33	20	13	45.8	37.2	56.0	44.0	12.0	12.0
54	  CNN RV .....	615	45	38	16	7	47.0	37.6	56.2	43.8	12.5	11.8
55	  Pew RV......	619	51	39	10	12	48.8	38.2	56.6	43.4	13.2	12.0

56	  Hotline RV..	625	41	36	24	5	46.8	37.0	56.5	43.5	13.0	12.4
57	  ABC/WP RV...	625	52	39	9	13	47.0	37.0	56.6	43.4	13.2	12.8
58	  Gallup RV...	625	54	38	7	16	48.6	38.0	56.6	43.4	13.3	13.0
59	  TIME LV....	629	47	35	18	12	49.0	37.4	57.2	42.8	14.3	13.4
60	  Gallup RV...	709	51	41	9	10	49.0	37.8	56.9	43.1	13.8	13.5

61	  AP-Ipsos RV.	712	51	40	9	11	51.0	38.6	57.2	42.8	14.5	13.8
62	  FOX LV.....	712	42	34	25	8	49.0	37.6	57.0	43.0	14.1	14.0
63	  Hotline RV..	723	48	32	20	16	47.8	36.4	57.3	42.7	14.6	14.3
64	  CBS/NYT RV.	725	45	35	20	10	47.4	36.4	57.1	42.9	14.2	14.2
65	  Gallup RV...	770	51	40	8	11	47.4	36.2	57.2	42.8	14.5	14.4

66	  CNN RV .....	803	53	40	7	13	47.8	36.2	57.4	42.6	14.8	14.4
67	  ABC/WP RV...	806	52	39	8	13	49.8	37.2	57.6	42.4	15.2	14.7
68	  AP-Ipsos RV.	809	55	37	8	18	51.2	38.2	57.6	42.4	15.1	14.8
69	  FOX LV.....	809	48	30	22	18	51.8	37.2	58.4	41.6	16.8	15.3
70	  Gallup RV...	810	50	41	9	9	51.6	37.4	58.2	41.8	16.4	15.7

71	  Newsweek RV.	811	51	39	10	12	51.2	37.2	58.2	41.8	16.3	16.0
72	  Pew RV......	813	50	41	9	9	50.8	37.6	57.8	42.2	15.5	16.0
73	  Hotline RV..	820	40	33	27	7	47.8	36.8	57.0	43.0	14.1	15.8
74	  Gallup RV...	820	47	45	7	2	47.6	39.8	55.2	44.8	10.3	14.5
75	  CNN RV .....	820	52	43	6	9	48.0	40.2	55.1	44.9	10.2	13.3

76	  CBS/NYT RV.	821	47	32	21	15	47.2	38.8	55.6	44.4	11.2	12.3
77	  TIME LV....	824	51	40	9	11	47.4	38.6	55.8	44.2	11.6	11.5
78	  Newsweek RV.	825	50	38	12	12	49.4	39.6	56.0	44.0	12.0	11.1
79	  FOX LV.....	830	48	32	21	16	49.6	37.0	57.6	42.4	15.3	12.0
80	  CNN LV .....	902	53	43	4	10	49.8	37.0	57.7	42.3	15.4	13.1

81	  ABC RV………	907	50	42	9	8	50.4	39.0	56.8	43.2	13.5	13.6
82	  Pew RV......	910	50	39	11	11	50.2	38.8	56.8	43.2	13.6	14.0
83	  Gallup RV...	910	53	41	7	12	50.8	39.4	56.7	43.3	13.4	14.2
84	  FOX LV.....	913	41	38	21	3	49.4	40.6	55.4	44.6	10.8	13.3
85	  Gallup LV……  917	48	48	4	0	48.4	41.6	54.4	45.6	8.8	12.0

86	  CBS/NYT RV.	919	50	35	15	15	48.4	40.2	55.2	44.8	10.5	11.4
87	  CNN LV .....	924	55	42	3	13	49.4	40.8	55.3	44.7	10.6	10.8
88	  FOX LV.....	927	49	38	14	11	48.6	40.2	55.3	44.7	10.6	10.3
89	  Hotline RV..	927	43	33	24	10	49.0	39.2	56.1	43.9	12.2	10.5
90	  Zogby LV…..	928	42	33	25	9	47.8	36.2	57.4	42.6	14.8	11.7

91	  CNN LV .....	1002	53	42	5	11	48.4	37.6	56.8	43.2	13.6	12.4
92	  AP-Ipsos RV.	1004	51	38	11	13	47.6	36.8	57.0	43.0	13.9	13.0
93	  Pew RV......	1004	51	41	8	10	48.0	37.4	56.8	43.2	13.5	13.6
94	  TIME LV....	1005	54	39	7	15	50.2	38.6	56.9	43.1	13.8	13.9
95	  Newsweek RV.	1006	51	39	7	12	52.0	39.8	56.9	43.1	13.8	13.7

96	  ABC RV………	1008	54	41	5	13	52.2	39.6	57.1	42.9	14.2	13.9
97	  CNN LV .....	1008	58	37	5	21	53.6	39.4	57.8	42.2	15.6	14.2
98	  Gallup LV…  1008	59	36	4	23	55.2	38.4	59.0	41.0	18.1	15.1
99	 Harris LV….	1009	49	36	15	13	54.2	37.8	59.0	41.0	18.0	16.0
100	  FOX LV.....	1011	50	41	9	9	54.0	38.2	58.7	41.3	17.4	16.7

101	  CNN LV .....	1015	56	40	4	16	54.4	38.0	59.0	41.0	17.9	17.4
102	 NBC RV……	1016	52	37	11	15	53.2	38.0	58.5	41.5	17.0	17.7
103	  Newsweek LV.	1021	55	37	8	18	52.4	38.2	58.0	42.0	16.1	17.3
104	  Gallup LV…… 1023	54	41	5	13	53.4	39.2	57.8	42.2	15.7	16.8
105	  ABC RV………	1023	54	41	5	13	54.2	39.2	58.2	41.8	16.3	16.6

106	  CNN LV .....	1022	57	40	3	17	54.4	39.2	58.2	41.8	16.5	16.3
107	  Hotline RV..	1023	52	34	13	18	54.4	38.6	58.6	41.4	17.2	16.4
108	  Zogby LV…..	1025	44	33	23	11	52.2	37.8	58.2	41.8	16.4	16.4
109	  FOX LV.....	1025	49	38	13	11	51.2	37.2	58.2	41.8	16.3	16.5
110	  Newsweek LV.	1027	53	39	8	14	51.0	36.8	58.3	41.7	16.6	16.6

111	  CNN LV .....	1029	53	42	5	11	50.2	37.2	57.8	42.2	15.5	16.4
112	 NBC LV……	1030	52	37	11	15	50.2	37.8	57.4	42.6	14.8	15.9
113	  CBS/NYT LV.	1101	52	33	15	19	51.8	37.8	58.0	42.0	16.1	15.9
114	  Newsweek LV.	1103	54	38	8	16	52.8	37.8	58.4	41.6	16.9	16.0
115	  TIME LV....	1103	55	40	5	15	53.2	38.0	58.5	41.5	17.0	16.0

116	  Pew LV....   1104	47	43	10	4	52.0	38.2	57.9	42.1	15.8	16.1
117	  ABC LV……	1104	51	45	4	6	51.8	39.8	56.8	43.2	13.7	15.9
118	 USA/Gallup LV 1106	51	44	4	7	51.6	42.0	55.4	44.6	10.9	14.8
119	  CNN LV .....	1106	58	38	4	20	52.4	42.0	55.8	44.2	11.5	13.8
120	  FOX LV.....	1106	49	36	15	13	51.2	41.2	55.8	44.2	11.5	12.7

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

There was a 1.0% standard deviation in the Democratic vote share for all 120
Generic Polls. That translates into a 1.96% MoE. Using the 1.0% standard
deviation and 60% UVA as imput to the normal distribution, there is a 1 in
151,009 probability of a 4.5% deviation between the projected and reported
Democratic vote, 55.8% and 51.3% rspectively.

http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm	
			
	120 Generic polls	

Projection- based on a 5-poll moving average 
60% of undecided voters are allocated to the Democrats (UVA)	

	Margin:	
	Mean	13.58%
	StDev	1.03%
	High	14.62%
	Low	12.55%
	Actual	4.90%

Democratic Vote share	
Reported Vote
Dem: 51.3% 
Rep: 46.4%							

Democratic:
UVA         60%	
Projected	55.8%
Reported    51.3%
Difference	4.5%
Prob: 1 in	151,009										
MoE	1.96%	
       	                            Poll			Projection		Probability		
					Dem	Rep	Margin	Dem	Rep	Margin	Prob	1 in	
				Mean	49.5%	38.3%	11.1%	55.8%	42.2%	13.6%	.0013%	151,009	
				StDev	4.2%	3.4%	4.1%	1.0%	1.0%	2.1%			
				High	57.9%	45.2%	12.7%	57.7%	44.1%	13.6%			
				Low	41.0%	31.5%	9.6%	53.6%	40.0%	13.6%			

	
		
		2005			         Dem	Rep	Margin	DemMA	RepMA     Margin Prob 1 in	
	1	  Newsweek RV.	905		50.0%	38.0%	12.0%	56.2%	41.8%	14.4%	0.05%	1,838	
	2	  Pew RV......	911		52.0%	40.0%	12.0%	56.0%	42.0%	14.0%	0.09%	1,157	
	3	  DemCorp LV..	921		48.0%	39.0%	9.0%	55.6%	42.4%	13.2%	0.21%	482	
	4	  Newsweek RV.	930		47.0%	42.0%	5.0%	54.9%	43.2%	11.7%	0.90%	111	
	5	  DemCorp LV..	1010		46.0%	41.0%	5.0%	54.4%	43.6%	10.9%	1.82%	55	

	6	  GWU LV......	1012		47.0%	41.0%	6.0%	53.8%	44.2%	9.7%	4.52%	22	
	7	  Hotline RV..	1016		40.0%	31.0%	9.0%	54.0%	44.0%	9.9%	3.81%	26	
	8	  DemCorp LV..	1023		48.0%	39.0%	9.0%	54.0%	44.0%	9.9%	3.81%	26	
	9	  Gallup RV...	1023		50.0%	43.0%	7.0%	54.1%	43.9%	10.2%	3.19%	31	
	10	  ABC/WP RV...	1102		52.0%	37.0%	15.0%	55.0%	43.0%	12.1%	0.63%	158	

	11	  DemCorp LV..	1106		48.0%	40.0%	8.0%	55.2%	42.8%	12.5%	0.43%	232	
	12	  Newsweek RV.	1105		53.0%	36.0%	17.0%	55.7%	42.3%	13.4%	0.18%	571	
	13	  Hotline RV..	1115		41.0%	35.0%	6.0%	55.6%	42.4%	13.2%	0.21%	482	
	14	  DemCorp LV..	1120		48.0%	41.0%	7.0%	55.7%	42.3%	13.4%	0.18%	571	
	15	  Time RV....	1201		48.0%	36.0%	12.0%	55.5%	42.5%	13.0%	0.27%	376	

	16	  DemCorp LV..	1204		49.0%	39.0%	10.0%	55.7%	42.3%	13.4%	0.18%	571	
	17	  CBS/NYT RV.	1206		42.0%	33.0%	9.0%	55.2%	42.8%	12.3%	0.50%	199	
	18	  DemCorp LV..	1212		49.0%	41.0%	8.0%	55.1%	42.9%	12.2%	0.59%	170	
	19	  Hotline RV…1213		43.0%	33.0%	10.0%	55.6%	42.4%	13.3%	0.19%	525	
	20	  NPR LV.....1218		45.0%	37.0%	8.0%	55.3%	42.7%	12.6%	0.40%	251	

	21	  ABC/WP RV...	1218		51.0%	41.0%	10.0%	55.2%	42.8%	12.4%	0.47%	215	
	22	  Gallup RV...	108		49.0%	43.0%	6.0%	54.6%	43.4%	11.1%	1.49%	67	
	23	  CBS/NYT RV.	125		43.0%	34.0%	9.0%	54.9%	43.1%	11.8%	0.79%	127	
	24	  DemCorp LV..	125		49.0%	41.0%	8.0%	54.4%	43.6%	10.9%	1.82%	55	
	25	  ABC/WP RV...	126		54.0%	38.0%	16.0%	55.0%	43.0%	12.1%	0.63%	158	

	26	  Pew RV......	205		50.0%	41.0%	9.0%	55.0%	43.0%	11.9%	0.73%	136	
	27	  Gallup RV...	212		50.0%	43.0%	7.0%	55.0%	43.0%	12.1%	0.63%	158	
	28	  GWU LV......	215		46.0%	41.0%	5.0%	54.4%	43.6%	10.9%	1.82%	55	
	29	  Hotline RV..	219		46.0%	31.0%	15.0%	55.4%	42.6%	12.8%	0.31%	319	
	30	  DemCorp LV..	227		48.0%	40.0%	8.0%	54.7%	43.3%	11.4%	1.21%	83	

	31	  Gallup RV...	301		53.0%	39.0%	14.0%	55.2%	42.8%	12.3%	0.50%	199	
	32	  FOX LV.....	301		48.0%	34.0%	14.0%	56.1%	41.9%	14.2%	0.07%	1,390	
	33	  Gallup RV...	312		55.0%	39.0%	16.0%	57.0%	41.0%	16.1%	0.01%	15,392	
	34	  NPR LV...	314		52.0%	37.0%	15.0%	56.8%	41.2%	15.6%	0.01%	8,137	
	35	  Newsweek RV.	317		50.0%	39.0%	11.0%	57.1%	40.9%	16.2%	0.01%	17,158	

	36	  Time RV....	323		50.0%	41.0%	9.0%	56.6%	41.4%	15.2%	0.02%	4,873	
	37	  CBS RV	409		44.0%	34.0%	10.0%	56.3%	41.7%	14.6%	0.05%	2,222	
	38	  ABC/WP RV...	409		55.0%	40.0%	15.0%	56.2%	41.8%	14.3%	0.06%	1,673	
	39	  Gallup RV...	409		52.0%	42.0%	10.0%	55.6%	42.4%	13.1%	0.23%	443	
	40	  Pew RV......	416		51.0%	41.0%	10.0%	55.4%	42.6%	12.8%	0.31%	319	

	41	  CNN RV .....	423		50.0%	40.0%	10.0%	55.5%	42.5%	13.0%	0.25%	408	
	42	  Cook………	430		44.0%	32.0%	12.0%	55.8%	42.2%	13.5%	0.15%	679	
	43	  Gallup RV...	430		54.0%	39.0%	15.0%	55.8%	42.2%	13.6%	0.13%	741	
	44	  FOX LV.....	503		41.0%	38.0%	3.0%	55.4%	42.6%	12.8%	0.31%	319	
	45	  CNN RV .....	507		52.0%	38.0%	14.0%	55.8%	42.2%	13.7%	0.12%	809	

	46	  CBS/NYT RV.	508		44.0%	33.0%	11.0%	56.2%	41.8%	14.4%	0.05%	1,838	
	47	  Newsweek RV.	512		50.0%	39.0%	11.0%	55.8%	42.2%	13.7%	0.12%	809	
	48	  ABC/WP RV...	515		52.0%	40.0%	12.0%	55.6%	42.4%	13.1%	0.23%	443	
	49	  Fabrizio LV.	517		39.0%	36.0%	3.0%	55.6%	42.4%	13.3%	0.19%	525	
	50	  Hotline RV..	521		42.0%	36.0%	6.0%	55.1%	42.9%	12.2%	0.59%	170	

	51	  Gallup RV...	604		51.0%	42.0%	9.0%	54.6%	43.4%	11.1%	1.49%	67	
	52	  Gallup RV...	611		51.0%	39.0%	12.0%	54.6%	43.4%	11.3%	1.30%	77	
	53	  FOX LV.....	614		46.0%	33.0%	13.0%	55.0%	43.0%	12.0%	0.68%	147	
	54	  CNN RV .....	615		45.0%	38.0%	7.0%	55.2%	42.8%	12.5%	0.43%	232	
	55	  Pew RV......	619		51.0%	39.0%	12.0%	55.6%	42.4%	13.2%	0.21%	482	

	56	  Hotline RV..	625		41.0%	36.0%	5.0%	55.5%	42.5%	13.0%	0.25%	408	
	57	  ABC/WP RV...	625		52.0%	39.0%	13.0%	55.6%	42.4%	13.2%	0.21%	482	
	58	  Gallup RV...	625		54.0%	38.0%	16.0%	55.6%	42.4%	13.3%	0.19%	525	
	59	  TIME LV....	629		47.0%	35.0%	12.0%	56.2%	41.8%	14.3%	0.06%	1,673	
	60	  Gallup RV...	709		51.0%	41.0%	10.0%	55.9%	42.1%	13.8%	0.10%	966	

	61	  AP-Ipsos RV.	712		51.0%	40.0%	11.0%	56.2%	41.8%	14.5%	0.05%	2,020	
	62	  FOX LV.....	712		42.0%	34.0%	8.0%	56.0%	42.0%	14.1%	0.08%	1,268	
	63	  Hotline RV..	723		48.0%	32.0%	16.0%	56.3%	41.7%	14.6%	0.05%	2,222	
	64	  CBS/NYT RV.	725		45.0%	35.0%	10.0%	56.1%	41.9%	14.2%	0.07%	1,524	
	65	  Gallup RV...	770		51.0%	40.0%	11.0%	56.2%	41.8%	14.5%	0.05%	2,020	

	66	  CNN RV .....	803		53.0%	40.0%	13.0%	56.4%	41.6%	14.8%	0.03%	2,968	
	67	  ABC/WP RV...	806		52.0%	39.0%	13.0%	56.6%	41.4%	15.2%	0.02%	4,873	
	68	  AP-Ipsos RV.	809		55.0%	37.0%	18.0%	56.6%	41.4%	15.1%	0.02%	4,407	
	69	  FOX LV.....	809		48.0%	30.0%	18.0%	57.4%	40.6%	16.8%	0.00%	41,916	
	70	  Gallup RV...	810		50.0%	41.0%	9.0%	57.2%	40.8%	16.4%	0.00%	23,863	

	71	  Newsweek RV.	811		51.0%	39.0%	12.0%	57.2%	40.8%	16.3%	0.00%	21,364	
	72	  Pew RV......	813		50.0%	41.0%	9.0%	56.8%	41.2%	15.5%	0.01%	7,334	
	73	  Hotline RV..	820		40.0%	33.0%	7.0%	56.0%	42.0%	14.1%	0.08%	1,268	
	74	  Gallup RV...	820		47.0%	45.0%	2.0%	54.2%	43.8%	10.3%	2.83%	35	
	75	  CNN RV .....	820		52.0%	43.0%	9.0%	54.1%	43.9%	10.2%	3.19%	31	

	76	  CBS/NYT RV.	821		47.0%	32.0%	15.0%	54.6%	43.4%	11.2%	1.39%	72	
	77	  TIME LV....	824		51.0%	40.0%	11.0%	54.8%	43.2%	11.6%	0.98%	102	
	78	  Newsweek RV.	825		50.0%	38.0%	12.0%	55.0%	43.0%	12.0%	0.68%	147	
	79	  FOX LV.....	830		48.0%	32.0%	16.0%	56.6%	41.4%	15.3%	0.02%	5,392	
	80	  CNN LV .....	902		53.0%	43.0%	10.0%	56.7%	41.3%	15.4%	0.02%	6,615	

	81	  ABC RV………	907		50.0%	42.0%	8.0%	55.8%	42.2%	13.5%	0.15%	679	
	82	  Pew RV......	910		50.0%	39.0%	11.0%	55.8%	42.2%	13.6%	0.13%	741	
	83	  Gallup RV...	910		53.0%	41.0%	12.0%	55.7%	42.3%	13.4%	0.18%	571	
	84	  FOX LV.....	913		41.0%	38.0%	3.0%	54.4%	43.6%	10.8%	1.94%	52	
	85	  Gallup LV……917		48.0%	48.0%	0.0%	53.4%	44.6%	8.8%	8.08%	12	

	86	  CBS/NYT RV.	919		50.0%	35.0%	15.0%	54.2%	43.8%	10.5%	2.50%	40	
	87	  CNN LV .....	924		55.0%	42.0%	13.0%	54.3%	43.7%	10.6%	2.35%	43	
	88	  FOX LV.....	927		49.0%	38.0%	11.0%	54.3%	43.7%	10.6%	2.20%	45	
	89	  Hotline RV..	927		43.0%	33.0%	10.0%	55.1%	42.9%	12.2%	0.59%	170	
	90	  Zogby LV…..	928		42.0%	33.0%	9.0%	56.4%	41.6%	14.8%	0.03%	2,968	

	91	  CNN LV .....	1002		53.0%	42.0%	11.0%	55.8%	42.2%	13.6%	0.13%	741	
	92	  AP-Ipsos RV.	1004		51.0%	38.0%	13.0%	56.0%	42.0%	13.9%	0.09%	1,057	
	93	  Pew RV......	1004		51.0%	41.0%	10.0%	55.8%	42.2%	13.5%	0.15%	679	
	94	  TIME LV....	1005		54.0%	39.0%	15.0%	55.9%	42.1%	13.8%	0.10%	966	
	95	  Newsweek RV.	1006		51.0%	39.0%	12.0%	55.9%	42.1%	13.8%	0.10%	966	

	96	  ABC RV………	1008		54.0%	41.0%	13.0%	56.1%	41.9%	14.2%	0.07%	1,524	
	97	  CNN LV .....	1008		58.0%	37.0%	21.0%	56.8%	41.2%	15.6%	0.01%	8,137	
	98	  Gallup LV…1008		59.0%	36.0%	23.0%	58.0%	40.0%	18.1%	0.00%	284,978	
	99	 Harris LV….	1009		49.0%	36.0%	13.0%	58.0%	40.0%	18.0%	0.00%	251,515	
	100	  FOX LV.....	1011		50.0%	41.0%	9.0%	57.7%	40.3%	17.4%	0.00%	94,898	

	101	  CNN LV ...1015		56.0%	40.0%	16.0%	58.0%	40.0%	17.9%	0.00%	222,134	
	102	 NBC RV……	1016		52.0%	37.0%	15.0%	57.5%	40.5%	17.0%	0.00%	52,759	
	103	  Newsweek LV.	1021		55.0%	37.0%	18.0%	57.0%	41.0%	16.1%	0.01%	15,392	
	104	  Gallup LV…1023		54.0%	41.0%	13.0%	56.8%	41.2%	15.7%	0.01%	9,034	
	105	  ABC RV………	1023		54.0%	41.0%	13.0%	57.2%	40.8%	16.3%	0.00%	21,364	

	106	  CNN LV .....	1022		57.0%	40.0%	17.0%	57.2%	40.8%	16.5%	0.00%	26,673	
	107	  Hotline RV..	1023		52.0%	34.0%	18.0%	57.6%	40.4%	17.2%	0.00%	74,883	
	108	  Zogby LV…..	1025		44.0%	33.0%	11.0%	57.2%	40.8%	16.4%	0.00%	23,863	
	109	  FOX LV.....	1025		49.0%	38.0%	11.0%	57.2%	40.8%	16.3%	0.00%	21,364	
	110	  Newsweek LV.	1027		53.0%	39.0%	14.0%	57.3%	40.7%	16.6%	0.00%	33,391	

	111	  CNN LV .....	1029		53.0%	42.0%	11.0%	56.8%	41.2%	15.5%	0.01%	7,334	
	112	 NBC LV……	1030		52.0%	37.0%	15.0%	56.4%	41.6%	14.8%	0.03%	2,968	
	113	  CBS/NYT LV.	1101		52.0%	33.0%	19.0%	57.0%	41.0%	16.1%	0.01%	15,392	
	114	  Newsweek LV.	1103		54.0%	38.0%	16.0%	57.4%	40.6%	16.9%	0.00%	47,010	
	115	  TIME LV....	1103		55.0%	40.0%	15.0%	57.5%	40.5%	17.0%	0.00%	52,759	

	116	  Pew LV......	1104		47.0%	43.0%	4.0%	56.9%	41.1%	15.8%	0.01%	10,036	
	117	  ABC LV……	1104		51.0%	45.0%	6.0%	55.8%	42.2%	13.7%	0.12%	809	
	118	 USA/GallupLV  1106		51.0%	44.0%	7.0%	54.4%	43.6%	10.9%	1.82%	55	
	119	  CNN LV .....	1106		58.0%	38.0%	20.0%	54.8%	43.2%	11.5%	1.05%	95	
	120	  FOX LV.....	1106		49.0%	36.0%	13.0%	54.8%	43.2%	11.5%	1.05%	95	

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_e...

Summary of the November 7, 2006
United States House of Representatives election results
.................2004 2006
Democratic Party 202 >232; 39,267,916 57.7% +11.1%
Republican Party 232 >199; 28,464,092 41.8% –7.4%
Undecided Seats 4
Totals 435 435; 68,057,591 100%

Data subject to change as the remaining races are tallied.
Undecided: TX-23 (run-off election in December); NC-08, OH-02, and OH-15 (too close to call)

Special cases: LA-02 (Called for the Democratic party - run-off election between two Democratic candidates in December); FL-13 (Called for the Republican party, but the results will be disputed in court

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.