The 116-poll House Generic Trend line projected a 56.4-41.6% Democratic win, a
14.8% margin. The recorded vote was 51.3-46.4%, a 5.1% decline in Democratic
vote share. The Democratic margin declined from 10.6 million to 3.6 million
votes.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_16921_image001.png

116 Generic Poll Trendline		
Dem = 46.98+ .0419x
GOP = 38.06+ .0047x	

Subtituting x=116 and allocating 60% (UVA) of the Undecided vote to the
Democrats: 
........Proj   UVA	Total
Dem	51.8	4.5	56.4
GOP	38.6	3.0	41.6

Assuming a 1.5% MoE, the probability that the Democratic vote share would
decline 5.1% from the Generic Poll (56.4%) to the actual vote (51.3%) is 1 in
76 billion. The probability is calculated using the Excel Normal Distribution
function: 

Prob	= 1.310E-11	= NORMDIST(0.513,0.564,0.015/1.96,TRUE)
or 1 in 76,326,375,571

Calculate the odds for various MoE:
MoE.....Odds:1 in
1.00%	66,902,704,830,560,800,000
1.25%	1,501,199,875,790,170

1.50%	76,326,375,571

1.75%	181,561,494
2.00%	3,491,135
2.25%	227,190
2.50%	31,607
3.00%	2,333


U.S. House Vote
(in thousands)

	      Dem	Rep	Other	Dem%	Rep% Other% PMarg VMarg
Generic     41556	30946	1474	56.4%	42.0%	2.0%	14.4%	10610
Reported    37796	34194	1690	51.3%	46.4%	2.3%	4.9%	3602
Discrep    -3760	3248	216	-5.1%	4.4%	0.3%	-9.5%	-7008


Reported State Vote:
State Total Dem	Rep	Other	Dem%	Rep%	Other% PMarg VMarg

AL	579	224	352	3	38.7%	60.8%	0.5%	-22.1% -128
AK	202	81	115	6	40.1%	56.9%	3.0%	-16.8% -34
AZ	1127	479	576	72	42.5%	51.1%	6.4%	-8.6%	-97
AR	747	448	299	0	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	19.9%	149
CA	6236	3549	2479	208	56.9%	39.8%	3.3%	17.2%	1070
.
CO	1371	728	572	71	53.1%	41.7%	5.2%	11.4%	156
CT	1079	652	421	6	60.4%	39.0%	0.6%	21.4%	231
DE	509	197	291	21	38.7%	57.2%	4.1%	-18.5% -94
FL	3727	1497	2162	68	40.2%	58.0%	1.8%	-17.8% -665
GA	1916	799	1117	0	41.7%	58.3%	0.0%	-16.6% -318
.
HI	338	220	118	0	65.1%	34.9%	0.0%	30.2%	102
ID	435	173	243	19	39.8%	55.9%	4.4%	-16.1% -70
IL	3127	1732	1381	14	55.4%	44.2%	0.4%	11.2%	351
IN	1646	803	821	22	48.8%	49.9%	1.3%	-1.1%	-18
IA	1028	490	520	18	47.7%	50.6%	1.8%	-2.9%	-30
.
KS	827	361	450	16	43.7%	54.4%	1.9%	-10.8% -89
KY	1244	596	609	39	47.9%	49.0%	3.1%	-1.0%	-13
LA	901	294	580	27	32.6%	64.4%	3.0%	-31.7% -286
ME	529	345	161	23	65.2%	30.4%	4.3%	34.8%	184
MD	1344	828	475	41	61.6%	35.3%	3.1%	26.3%	353
.
MA	1068	793	198	77	74.3%	18.5%	7.2%	55.7%	595
MI	3516	1793	1626	97	51.0%	46.2%	2.8%	4.7%	167
MN	2178	1154	925	99	53.0%	42.5%	4.5%	10.5%	229
MS	581	251	295	35	43.2%	50.8%	6.0%	-7.6%	-44
MO	2050	965	1031	54	47.1%	50.3%	2.6%	-3.2%	-66
.
MT	805	314	476	15	39.0%	59.1%	1.9%	-20.1% -162
NE	586	257	329	0	43.9%	56.1%	0.0%	-12.3% -72
NV	573	287	259	27	50.1%	45.2%	4.7%	4.9%	28
NH	402	209	189	4	52.0%	47.0%	1.0%	5.0%	20
NJ	1859	949	885	25	51.0%	47.6%	1.3%	3.4%	64
.
NM	545	304	241	0	55.8%	44.2%	0.0%	11.6%	63
NY	3561	2285	1268	8	64.2%	35.6%	0.2%	28.6%	1017
NC	1842	935	907	0	50.8%	49.2%	0.0%	1.5%	28
ND	433	284	149	0	65.6%	34.4%	0.0%	31.2%	135
OH	3763	1970	1785	8	52.4%	47.4%	0.2%	4.9%	185
.
OK	905	373	518	14	41.2%	57.2%	1.5%	-16.0% -145
OR	1264	713	523	28	56.4%	41.4%	2.2%	15.0%	190
PA	3815	2061	1705	49	54.0%	44.7%	1.3%	9.3%	356
RI	372	264	42	66	71.0%	11.3%	17.7%	59.7%	222
SC	1072	466	593	13	43.5%	55.3%	1.2%	-11.8% -127
.
SD	667	461	196	10	69.1%	29.4%	1.5%	39.7%	265
TN	1712	860	797	55	50.2%	46.6%	3.2%	3.7%	63
TX	3994	1783	2069	142	44.6%	51.8%	3.6%	-7.2%	-286
UT	549	234	283	32	42.6%	51.5%	5.8%	-8.9%	-49
VT	524	279	234	11	53.2%	44.7%	2.1%	8.6%	45
.
VA	2148	810	1220	118	37.7%	56.8%	5.5%	-19.1% -410
WA	1309	803	499	7	61.3%	38.1%	0.5%	23.2%	304
WV	446	258	188	0	57.8%	42.2%	0.0%	15.7%	70
WI	1852	1001	836	15	54.0%	45.1%	0.8%	8.9%	165
WY	377	184	186	7	48.8%	49.3%	1.9%	-0.5%	-2

.
.
.
.
.
.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

TIA Replies to ProfessorGAC and Skinner on DU

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

ProfessorGAC (1000+ posts)
Wed Nov-22-06 09:33 AM
Response to Reply #86
137. Here's Two Of Them, Beet

And, btw, i've taught more advanced statistics classes than TIA has even considered taking. (And you know that to be the truth.)

First, he uses an MoE of 1.5%. Nowhere does it show how that polling sample would be 25% less variable than a standard poll, which almost always round DOWN (due to sample size) to 2%. That would inflate the distribution of the final analysis by a factor of 4/3 which moves the tails farther from the mean. Since the distributions are not linear, at that end of the curve, it could move the probabilities out by a factor of more than 100.

TIA:
The 1.5% MoE is justified. I take the FINAL COMBINED 10 polls to calculate the MoE. There were 1000 sampled per poll. The 10 INDEPENDENT Final Generic Polls is equivalent to a 10,000 sample size. Using the formula to determine the MoE, assuming a 56/44% voting split, P=.56, N=10000:

MoE = 0.97% =1.96*standard error = 1.96*SQRT((1-p)*p)/N)
So I'm being conservative when I use a 1.5% MoE

ProfessorGAC
Secondly, there is a broad unsupportable assumption that 60% of the undecideds would vote dem. Since the dems didn't get 60% of the total vote, that is an assumption for which there is ZERO basis in fact. Since the "undecideds" were a statistically significant portion of the sample, the entire rest of the analysis hinges COMPLETELY on that assumption.

TIA
Both of your statements belie the facts. In a study of 155 elections, the challenger won the undecided vote in 82%, the incumbent in 12%. In this election, there was a strong incentive to kick the bums (The Republicans) out.

It's known as the incumbent rule:
http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

This is what the most experienced pollster of all, Lou Harris, had to say about the undecided vote in 2004:
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index...

As for your comment that my 60% UVA assumption skewed the results:
Assuming a 60% UVA, the model projected a 14.8% Democratic margin
.......Trend+ UVA = Projection
Dem 51.8+ 4.5 = 56.4
GOP 38.6+ 3.0 = 41.6

Assuming a 50% UVA, even though a split is unrealistic in light of the above,
the Democratic margin is reduced to 13.2% - still a major landslide

.......Trend+ UVA = Projection
Dem 51.8+ 3.75 = 55.55
GOP 38.6+ 3.75 = 42.35

Now let’s recalculate the probability of the Dmocratic vote discrepancy from the Generic poll trend line using the Excel Normal Distribution function:

Probability = 1.405E-08 = NORMDIST(0.513,0.5555,0.015/1.96,TRUE)
or 1 in 71,175,791


ProfessorGAC
Without acquiring the whole data set and doing a more supportable analysis, i would estimate the final conclusion to be off by a factor of AT LEAST 100,000.

TIA
The odds went from 1 in 76 billion to 1 in 71 million.
That's a factor of 1070.

Skinner should read Jonathan Simon and Bruce O'Dell at EDA:
http://electiondefensealliance.org/landslide_denie...

Last 10 Generic Polls
MoE for 10-poll combination: 1%

.............DEM	GOP
CNN	1029	53	42
NBC	1030	52	37
CBS	1101	52	33
Nwk 	1103	54	38
TIME	1103	55	40
.
Pew	1104	47	43
ABC	1104	51	45
USA	1106	51	44
CNN	1106	58	38
FOX	1106	49	36
			
	Avg	52.2%	39.6%
	UVA	3.7%	2.5%
	Proj	55.9%	42.1%
      Vote	51.3%	46.4%
	Dev	4.6%	-4.3%
.			
Probability of Democratic 4.6% Deviation
.
MoE	1 in		
1.0%	nc		
1.25%	4.6 trillion
1.5%	1.3 billion		
2.0%	335 thousand		
2.5%	6.8 thousand		
3.0%	787		
.
Sensitivity Analysis
____________________
Probability of Vote discrepancy  to average of 
latest 10 Generic Polls	for various MoE and UVA
.
10-poll MoE is 1% (10,000 sample)
UVA: Undecided voter allocation to Democrats			
.
UVA	50%	55%	60%	65%	70%	75%
Margin 4.0%	4.3%	4.6%	4.9%	5.2%	5.6%
.
MoE     Probability: 1 in X (in table)				
1.00%	450t	nc	nc	nc	nc	nc
1.25%	5.6b	142b	4.5t	183t	9007t	 nc
1.50%	11m	111m	1.3b	176b  264b	4.8t
1.75%	267k	1.4m	8.7m	59m	454m	3.9b
2.00%	23k   83k   334k  1.4m	7m    37m
.
2.25%	4k	11k	 35k	114k	399k	1.5m
2.50%	1.2K	2.7k	6.8k	18k	50k	147k
2.75%	459	940	2k    4.5k	11k	26k
3.00%	223	411	787	1.6k	3.2k	6.9k

nc: not-calculable, t:trillion, b:billion, m:million, k:thousand
 

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media. 
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls. 
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election 
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive). 
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote. 
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election. 
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.  
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
 Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes. 
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million. 
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE  margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud. 

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

I can't envision a statistics prof of any merit making such a weak case as he does and drawing such bizarre conclusions thereof.

-Mr Nice Guy

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

Here is my response (not yet posted on DU):
http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.p...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

but as a professionl, GACs response was anything but..

Not to mention that his criticisms, even if they are correct, are nowhere near enough to reconcile the data you present with the final vote tallys, something he must be aware of..

-Mr Nice Guy