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120 Pre-election Generic Polls vs. the Final National Exit poll


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Original Post: 120 Pre-election Generic Polls vs. the Final National Exit poll

TruthIsAll

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Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Sat Nov-11-06 09:51 PM
Original Post

Edited by TruthIsAll on Tue Feb-20-07 07:07 AM

There was an 8.4% discrepancy in the Democratic margin between the final
pre-election Generic Poll trend and the 2006 Final National Exit Poll.
 
The Final NEP 2-party vote (How Voted in 2004) was 53.2D-46.8R.
The Generic trendine was 57.4D-42.6R, a 4.2% deviation.

2006 PRE-ELECTION GENERIC POLLS
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_16921_image001.png

The Democrats won ALL 120 Generic Polls from Sept. 2005 to Nov.6, 2006. 
The Democratic trend line had a POSITIVE slope.
The Republican trend line was FLAT.
The 120-poll 2-party trendline projection: 57.4D-42.6R, a 14.8% margin.
The MoE is 1.0% for the 10-poll moving average. 

Calculate the Generic poll final projection based on the trend lines: 
Dem = 52.01% = .0419x + 46.98 = .0419*120 + 46.98 = 5.03 + 46.98
Rep = 38.62% = .0047x + 38.06 = .0047*120 + 38.06 = 0.56 + 38.06

Converting to the 2-party share: 
Dem = 57.4% = 52.01/(52.01+38.62) = 52.01/90.63
Rep = 42.6%

There are scores of documented instances of missing votes and voting machine
"glitches", mostly favoring the GOP. Therefore, we can reasonably
assume that the FINAL 120 pre-election GENERIC POLL trend is more accurate than
the FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL, which was MATCHED TO A CORRUPTED RECORDED VOTE
COUNT.
________________________________________________

2006 NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED TO MATCH THE GENERIC POLL TREND

Determine a FEASIBLE SET of WEIGHTS and VOTE SHARES for three key demographics
in order to bring the FINAL 2006 National Exit Poll within 0.2% of the FINAL
Generic poll trend line. 

CNN.com - Elections 2006			
11/07 U.S. HOUSE NATIONAL EXIT POLL
The Final was updated on CNN at 1pm Nov.8:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html


	7:07pm 10,207 Respondents 	     1:00pm 13,251 Respondents	        Adjusted


HOW VOTED IN 2004														
	MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX**	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX*	Dem	Rep	Other
Kerry	45%	93%	6%	1%		43%	92%	7%	1%		50%	93%	6%	1%
Bush	47%	17%	82%	1%		49%	15%	83%	2%		45%	17%	82%	1%
Other	4%	67%	23%	10%		4%	66%	23%	11%		1%	67%	23%	10%
DNV	4%	67%	30%	3%		4%	66%	32%	2%		4%	67%	30%	3%
TOTAL	100%	55.20%	43.36%	1.44%		100%	52.19%	45.88%	1.93%		100%	57.50%	41.33%	1.17%
	
													
GENDER														
	MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX*	Dem	Rep	Other
Male	49%	53%	45%	2%		49%	50%	47%	3%		48%	55%	43%	2%
Female	51%	57%	42%	1%		51%	55%	43%	2%		52%	59%	40%	1%
TOTAL	100%	55.04%	43.47%	1.49%		100%	52.55%	44.96%	2.49%		100%	57.08%	41.44%	1.48%
														
RACE/GENDER														
	MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
WM	39%	47%	51%	2%		39%	44%	53%	3%		39%	50%	48%	2%
WF	40%	51%	48%	1%		40%	49%	50%	1%		40%	53%	45%	2%
NWM	9%	76%	22%	2%		9%	75%	23%	2%		9%	78%	20%	2%
NWF	11%	79%	20%	1%		11%	78%	21%	1%		11%	84%	14%	2%
TOTAL	99%	54.26%	43.27%	1.47%		99%	52.09%	45.05%	1.86%		99%	56.96%	40.06%	1.98%
														
RACE														MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX**	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
White	80%	49%	49%	2%		79%	47%	51%	2%		80%	50%	48%	2%
Black	10%	88%	12%	0%		10%	89%	10%	1%		10%	90%	10%	0%
Latino	8%	72%	26%	2%		8%	69%	30%	1%		8%	74%	24%	2%
Asian	2%	65%	35%	0%		2%	62%	37%	1%		2%	71%	29%	0%
Other	1%	59%	36%	5%		2%	55%	42%	3%		1%	62%	33%	5%
TOTAL	101%	55.65%	43.54%	1.81%		101%	53.89%	45.27%	1.84%		101%	56.96%	42.23%	1.81%
														
AGE														MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX****	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
18-29	11%	60%	38%	2%		12%	60%	38%	2%		11%	62%	36%	2%
30-44	23%	55%	43%	2%		24%	53%	45%	2%		23%	57%	41%	2%
45-59	33%	55%	44%	1%		34%	53%	46%	1%		33%	58%	41%	1%
60+	33%	53%	45%	2%		29%	50%	48%	2%		33%	54%	44%	2%
TOTAL	100%	54.89%	43.44%	1.67%		99%	52.44%	44.92%	1.64%		100%	56.89%	41.44%	1.67%
														
INCOME													MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
< 15	7%	67%	30%	3%		7%	67%	30%	3%		7%	69%	28%	3%
15-30	12%	63%	35%	2%		12%	61%	36%	3%		12%	65%	33%	2%
30-50	21%	58%	41%	1%		21%	56%	43%	1%		21%	61%	38%	1%
50-75	22%	52%	46%	2%		22%	50%	48%	2%		22%	54%	44%	2%
75-100	15%	53%	46%	1%		15%	52%	47%	1%		15%	54%	45%	1%
100-150 13%	50%	48%	2%		13%	47%	51%	2%		13%	51%	47%	2%
150-200	 5%	47%	51%	2%		5%	47%	51%	2%		5%	49%	49%	2%
200+	 5%	48%	51%	1%		5%	45%	53%	2%		5%	49%	50%	1%
TOTAL	100%	55.07%	43.27%	1.66%		100%	53.28%	44.89%	1.83%		100%	56.95%	41.39%	1.66%
														
EDUCATION													MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX***	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
NoHS	4%	64%	35%	1%		3%	64%	35%	1%		4%	67%	32%	1%
HSG	21%	57%	42%	1%		21%	55%	44%	1%		21%	59%	40%	1%
Col	30%	52%	46%	2%		31%	51%	47%	2%		30%	54%	44%	2%
Grad	26%	52%	46%	2%		27%	49%	49%	2%		26%	54%	44%	2%
PostG	19%	60%	39%	1%		18%	58%	41%	1%		19%	62%	37%	1%
TOTAL	100%	55.05%	43.39%	1.56%		100%	52.95%	45.47%	1.58%		100%	57.09%	41.35%	1.56%
														
EDUCATION													MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX**	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
NoDeg  54%	55%	43%	2%		55%	53%	45%	2%		54%	55%	43%	2%
Grad	46%	55%	43%	2%		45%	53%	46%	1%		46%	59%	39%	2%
TOTAL	100%	55.00%	43.00%	2.00%		100%	53.00%	45.45%	1.55%		100%	56.84%	41.16%	2.00%
														
PARTY ID													MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX**	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Dem	39%	93%	6%	1%		38%	93%	7%	0%		40%	94%	5%	1%
Rep	35%	9%	90%	1%		36%	8%	91%	1%		35%	12%	87%	1%
Ind	26%	58%	38%	4%		26%	57%	39%	4%		25%	61%	35%	4%
TOTAL	100%	54.50%	43.72%	1.78%		100%	53.04%	45.56%	1.40%		100%	57.05%	41.20%	1.75%
												
IDEOLOGY													MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX*	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Lib	21%	88%	10%	2%		20%	87%	11%	2%		21%	91%	7%	2%
Mod	48%	62%	36%	2%		47%	60%	38%	2%		48%	64%	34%	2%
Con	32%	21%	77%	2%		32%	20%	78%	2%		32%	22%	76%	2%
TOTAL	101%	54.96%	44.02%	2.02%		99%	52.00%	45.02%	1.98%		101%	56.87%	42.11%	2.02%
														
RELIGION													MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Prot	55%	46%	52%	2%		55%	44%	54%	2%		55%	49%	49%	2%
Cath	26%	56%	43%	1%		26%	55%	44%	1%		26%	58%	41%	1%
Jewish	2%	87%	10%	3%		2%	87%	12%	1%		2%	87%	10%	3%
Other	6%	71%	25%	4%		6%	71%	25%	4%		6%	75%	21%	4%
None	11%	76%	22%	2%		11%	74%	22%	4%		11%	80%	18%	2%
TOTAL	100%	54.22%	43.90%	1.88%		100%	52.64%	45.30%	2.06%		100%	57.07%	41.05%	1.88%
														
BORN-AGAIN or
EVANGELICAL?										MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Yes	33%	42%	57%	1%		34%	41%	58%	1%		33%	45%	54%	1%
No	67%	61%	37%	2%		66%	59%	39%	2%		67%	63%	35%	2%
TOTAL	100%	54.73%	43.60%	1.67%		100%	52.88%	45.46%	1.66%		100%	57.06%	41.27%	1.67%
														
CHURCH
ATTENDANCE												MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX*	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Often	17%	39%	59%	2%		17%	38%	60%	2%		17%	43%	55%	2%
Week	28%	48%	51%	1%		28%	46%	53%	1%		28%	51%	48%	1%
Month	11%	58%	40%	2%		12%	57%	41%	2%		11%	64%	34%	2%
Qtr	26%	61%	37%	2%		25%	60%	38%	2%		26%	66%	32%	2%
Never	15%	69%	29%	2%		15%	67%	30%	3%		15%	75%	23%	2%
TOTAL	97%	52.66%	42.68%	1.66%		97%	51.23%	43.96%	1.81%		97%	57.04%	38.30%	1.66%
														
MARRIED?													MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Yes	68%	49%	49%	2%		68%	48%	51%	1%		68%	52%	46%	2%
No	32%	65%	33%	2%		32%	64%	34%	2%		32%	68%	30%	2%
TOTAL	100%	54.12%	43.88%	2.00%		100%	53.12%	45.56%	1.32%		100%	57.12%	40.88%	2.00%
														
MARRIED BY
GENDER												MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX*	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Male	35%	49%	49%	2%		35%	47%	51%	2%		35%	51%	47%	2%
Female  33%	50%	49%	1%		33%	48%	50%	2%		33%	55%	44%	1%
No-Male 13%	62%	35%	3%		14%	62%	36%	2%		13%	65%	32%	3%
No-Fem 19%	66%	32%	2%		18%	66%	32%	2%		19%	67%	31%	2%
TOTAL	100%	54.25%	43.95%	1.80%		100%	52.85%	45.15%	2.00%		100%	57.18%	41.02%	1.80%
														
BUSH JOB
APPROVAL												MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX*	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Strong	19%	9%	90%	1%		19%	9%	90%	1%		19%	7%	92%	1%
Appr	23%	19%	79%	2%		23%	18%	79%	3%		23%	15%	83%	2%
Dis	14%	60%	38%	2%		15%	59%	38%	3%		14%	79%	19%	2%
StrDis 43%	91%	7%	2%		41%	91%	7%	2%		43%	96%	2%	2%
TOTAL	99%	53.61%	43.60%	1.79%		98%	52.01%	43.84%	2.15%		99%	57.12%	40.09%	1.79%
														
OPINION OF GOP
LEADERS											MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX**	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Excel	11%	6%	93%	1%		11%	6%	93%	1%		11%	5%	94%	1%
Good	31%	20%	79%	1%		33%	17%	81%	2%		31%	18%	81%	1%
Dis	34%	77%	21%	2%		34%	76%	22%	2%		34%	88%	10%	2%
Angry	22%	94%	4%	2%		21%	94%	4%	2%		22%	95%	3%	2%
TOTAL	98%	53.72%	42.74%	1.54%		99%	51.85%	45.28%	1.87%		98%	56.95%	39.51%	1.54%
														
CONGRESS JOB APPROVAL														
	MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX*	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Appr	36%	26%	73%	1%		37%	26%	72%	2%		36%	22%	77%	1%
Disap	62%	71%	27%	2%		61%	69%	28%	3%		62%	79%	19%	2%
TOTAL	98%	53.38%	43.02%	1.60%		98%	52.14%	43.28%	2.58%		98%	56.90%	39.50%	1.60%
														
VOTED TODAY TO�
BUSH											MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX**	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Support	22%	7%	92%	1%		22%	6%	93%	1%		22%	5%	94%	1%
Oppose	38%	93%	5%	2%		36%	93%	5%	2%		38%	96%	2%	2%
Neither	38%	45%	53%	2%		39%	41%	56%	3%		38%	51%	47%	2%
TOTAL	98%	53.98%	42.28%	1.74%		97%	50.79%	44.10%	2.11%		98%	56.96%	39.30%	1.74%
														
WHEN
DECIDED												MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX***	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Today	9%	60%	37%	3%		10%	61%	36%	3%		9%	62%	35%	3%
3Days	9%	57%	41%	2%		9%	51%	47%	2%		9%	58%	40%	2%
Week	8%	53%	45%	2%		9%	52%	47%	1%		8%	54%	44%	2%
Month	21%	58%	41%	1%		21%	54%	44%	2%		21%	58%	41%	1%
Before	52%	57%	42%	1%		50%	54%	45%	1%		52%	57%	42%	1%
TOTAL	99%	56.59%	41.07%	1.34%		99%	53.71%	43.80%	1.49%		99%	56.94%	40.72%	1.34%
														
U.S. IN RIGHT
DIRECTION?										MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX**	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Yes	40%	21%	78%	1%		41%	20%	79%	1%		40%	26%	73%	1%
No	56%	80%	18%	2%		55%	78%	20%	2%		56%	86%	12%	2%
TOTAL	96%	53.20%	41.28%	1.51%		96%	51.10%	43.39%	1.51%		96%	58.56%	35.92%	1.52%
																										
ECONOMY													MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX***	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Excel	10%	13%	86%	1%		9%	13%	86%	1%		10%	14%	85%	1%
Good	38%	32%	66%	2%		40%	32%	66%	2%		38%	35%	63%	2%
NG	38%	77%	21%	2%		37%	74%	23%	3%		38%	80%	18%	2%
Poor	13%	87%	11%	2%		13%	85%	13%	2%		13%	90%	8%	2%
TOTAL	99%	54.03%	43.09%	1.88%		99%	52.40%	44.34%	2.26%		99%	56.80%	40.32%	1.88%
														
CHANGE IN FINANCIAL SITUATION
	MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX***	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Better	29%	28%	71%	1%		30%	28%	71%	1%		29%	29%	70%	1%
Worse	26%	80%	17%	3%		25%	77%	20%	3%		26%	87%	10%	3%
Same	45%	57%	41%	2%		44%	56%	42%	2%		45%	58%	40%	2%
TOTAL	100%	54.57%	43.46%	1.97%		99%	52.29%	44.78%	1.93%		100%	57.13%	40.90%	1.97%
														
FINANCIAL
SITUATION											MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Ahead	31%	36%	63%	1%		31%	34%	65%	1%		31%	39%	60%	1%
Barely	50%	59%	39%	2%		50%	57%	41%	2%		50%	63%	35%	2%
Behind	17%	76%	20%	4%		17%	74%	23%	3%		17%	79%	17%	4%
TOTAL	98%	53.58%	42.43%	1.99%		98%	51.62%	44.56%	1.82%		98%	57.02%	38.99%	1.99%
														
LIFE FOR NEXT
GENERATION										MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Better	30%	38%	61%	1%		30%	37%	62%	1%		30%	39%	60%	1%
Worse	40%	69%	29%	2%		40%	66%	32%	2%		40%	74%	24%	2%
Same	28%	54%	44%	2%		28%	52%	46%	2%		28%	56%	42%	2%
TOTAL	98%	54.12%	42.22%	1.66%		98%	52.06%	44.28%	1.66%		98%	56.98%	39.36%	1.66%
														
IMPORTANCE OF
IRAQ											MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX**	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Extreme	36%	61%	38%	1%		35%	60%	39%	1%		36%	63%	36%	1%
Very	32%	47%	51%	2%		32%	46%	52%	2%		32%	53%	45%	2%
Some	20%	49%	49%	2%		21%	47%	50%	3%		20%	53%	45%	2%
Not	10%	65%	33%	2%		10%	62%	36%	2%		10%	68%	30%	2%
TOTAL	98%	53.30%	43.10%	1.60%		98%	51.79%	44.39%	1.82%		98%	57.04%	39.36%	1.60%
														
IMPORTANCE OF
TERRORISM											MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX**	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Extreme	40%	46%	53%	1%		39%	46%	53%	1%		40%	49%	50%	1%
Very	32%	53%	45%	2%		33%	51%	47%	2%		32%	58%	40%	2%
Some	20%	68%	29%	3%		20%	65%	32%	3%		20%	72%	25%	3%
Not	6%	70%	27%	3%		6%	66%	31%	3%		6%	76%	21%	3%
TOTAL	98%	53.16%	43.02%	1.82%		98%	51.73%	44.44%	1.83%		98%	57.12%	39.06%	1.82%
																											
IMPORTANCE OF
ECONOMY											MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX*	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Extremely	39%	60%	38%	2%		39%	59%	39%	2%		39%	64%	34%	2%
Very	43%	49%	48%	3%		43%	48%	50%	2%		43%	54%	43%	3%
Some	15%	52%	46%	2%		14%	49%	48%	3%		15%	52%	46%	2%
NotAtAll	2%	60%	38%	2%		2%	55%	42%	3%		2%	60%	38%	2%
TOTAL	99%	53.47%	43.12%	2.41%		98%	51.61%	44.27%	2.12%		99%	57.18%	39.41%	2.41%
																											
CONFIDENT VOTES COUNTED
ACCURATELY?								MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Very	46%	42%	57%	1%		46%	39%	59%	2%		46%	45%	54%	1%
Some	41%	64%	35%	1%		41%	62%	36%	2%		41%	65%	34%	1%
NotVery	9%	77%	21%	2%		9%	74%	24%	2%		9%	80%	18%	2%
No	3%	69%	26%	5%		3%	68%	27%	5%		3%	85%	10%	5%
TOTAL	99%	54.56%	43.24%	1.20%		99%	52.06%	44.87%	2.07%		99%	57.10%	40.70%	1.20%
													

SIZE OF COMMUNITY
											MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX*	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Urban 	29%	61%	37%	2%		30%	61%	37%	2%		30%	65%	33%	2%
SuburB 	47%	53%	45%	2%		47%	50%	48%	2%		47%	54%	44%	2%
Rural	24%	51%	48%	1%		24%	48%	50%	2%		24%	51%	47%	2%
TOTAL	100%	54.84%	43.40%	1.76%		101%	53.32%	45.66%	2.02%		101%	57.12%	41.86%	2.02%
														
REGION													MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX*	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
NE	22%	64%	35%	1%		22%	63%	35%	2%		22%	66%	33%	2%
MidW	27%	57%	42%	1%		27%	52%	47%	1%		27%	59%	40%	1%
South	29%	45%	54%	1%		30%	45%	53%	2%		30%	48%	50%	2%
West	21%	57%	40%	3%		21%	54%	43%	3%		21%	58%	39%	3%
TOTAL	99%	54.49%	43.10%	1.41%		100%	52.74%	45.32%	1.94%		100%	57.03%	41.25%	1.94%
														
VOTE FOR U.S. SENATE
											MIX	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX**	Dem	Rep	Other		MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Dem	56%	89%	11%	1%		55%	88%	11%	1%		55%	88%	11%	1%
Rep 	40%	11%	87%	2%		41%	11%	88%	1%		41%	11%	88%	1%
TOTAL	96%	54.24%	40.96%	1.51%		96%	52.91%	42.13%	0.96%		96%	52.91%	42.13%	0.96%
FINAL 2006 National Exit Poll 
CNN Update: 1pm, Nov. 8
13,251 respondents 

Note: 
2004 NEP 12:22am results in parenthesis.

VOTED 2004 (adjusted)
......Mix	Dem	Rep			
Kerry 50%	94%	6%    (91D-8R)
Bush 	45%	15%	85%	(10D-90R)
Other	1%	75%	25%    (71D-21R)
None  4%	65%	35%		
Total	100%	57.1% 42.9%		
					

PARTY ID (adjusted)
2004 NEP Mix: 38D/35R/27I
......Mix	Dem	Rep
Dem	40%	94%	6%    (90D-9R)
Rep	33%	10%	90%	(7D-92R)	
Ind	27%	60%	40%	(52D-44R)	
Total	100%	57.1% 42.9%		
					

GENDER (adjusted)
2004 NEP mix: 54F-46M
.......Mix	Dem	Rep		
Male 	 47%	55%	45%	(52R-47D) 
Female 53%	59%	41%	(54D-45R)	
Total	100%	57.1% 42.9%		

____________________________________________________

FINAL EXIT POLL (actual)
CNN Update: 1pm, Nov. 8
13,251 respondents 

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

Category........Dem         GOP  Margin

AVERAGE.........53.94%      45.88% 8.05%

Gender..........52.55%      44.96%	7.59%
Race/Gender.....53.62%      46.38%	7.25%
Race............54.35%      45.65% 8.69%
Age.............53.86%      46.14%	7.72%
Income..........54.26%      45.74% 8.51%

Education.......53.80%      46.20%	7.60%
PartyID.........53.79%      46.21%	7.59%
Ideology........53.60%      46.40%	7.19%
Religion........53.75%      46.25%	7.49%
Voted 2004..... 53.22%      46.78%	6.43%

When Decided....55.08%      44.92%	10.16%
Size............53.80%      46.20%	 7.59%
Region..........53.78%      46.22%  7.57%
Voted-Senate....55.67%      44.33% 11.34%

____________________________________________________

GENDER
........    Mix	Dem	GOP	
Male 	      49%	50%	47%	
Female      51%	55%	43%	

Total	             52.6%	45.0%	
2-pty	             53.9%	46.1%	
				
RACE/GENDER
...........    Mix	Dem	GOP	
WM	         39%	44%	53%	
WF	         40%	49%	50%	
NWM	          9%	75%	23%	
NWF	         11%	78%	21%	

Total	            52.1%    45.1%	
2-pty	            53.6%	46.4%
			
RACE	
..........  Mix	Dem	GOP
White       79%       47%    51%
Black	      10%	89%    10%
Latino       8%       69%    30%
Asian	      2%	62%	 37%
Other	      2%	55%	 42%

Total	            53.9%	 45.3%
2-pty	            54.4%	 45.6%
			
AGE
..........     Mix	Dem	GOP
18-29          12%	60%	38%
30-44          24%	53%	45%
45-59          34%	53%	46%
60+	         29%	50%	48%

Total	            52.4%	44.9%
2-pty	            53.9%	46.1%
			
INCOME			
.......     Mix	Dem	GOP
<15K	      7%	67%	30%
15-30	      12%	61%	36%
30-50	      21%	56%	43%
50-75	      22%	50%	48%
75-100	     16%	52%	47%
100-150	     13%     47%	51%
150-200	     5%      47%	51%
200+	      5%	45%	53%

Total	            53.8%	45.4%
2-pty	            54.3%	45.7%
			
EDUCATION			
........... Mix	Dem	GOP
NoHS	      3%	64%	35%
HSGr	      21%	55%	44%
College     31%	51%	47%
ColGr	      27%	49%	49%
POstGr      18%	58%	41%

Total	            53.0%	45.5%
2-pty	            53.8%	46.2%
			
PARTY-ID			
...........Mix       Dem	GOP
Dem	     38%	93%	7%
Rep	     36%	8%	91%
Ind	     26%	57%	39%

Total	            53.0%	45.6%
2-pty	            53.9%	46.1%
			
IDEOLOGY			
..........  Mix	Dem	GOP
Lib	      20%	87%	11%
Mod	      47%	60%	38%
Con	      32%	20%	78%

Total	           52.0%	45.0%
2-pty	           53.6%	46.4%
			
RELIGION
............Mix	Dem	GOP
Protestant  55%	44%	54%
Catholic    26%	55%	44%
Jewish       2%	87%	12%
Other	       6%	71%	25%
None	      11%	74%	22%

Total	           52.6%   45.3%
2-pty	           53.8%   46.2%


VOTED 2004
........... Mix	Dem	GOP
Kerry        43%      92%    7%
Bush 	      49%	15%	83%
Other	      4%	66%	23%
None	      4%	66%	32%

Total	            52.2%  45.9%
2-pty	            53.2%  46.8%
			
DECIDED
........... Mix	Dem	GOP
Today 	      10%	61%	36%
Last3	       9%	51%	47%
Last7	       9%	52%	47%
Last30	      21%	54%	44%
Before	      50%	54%	45%

Total	            53.7%	 43.8%
2-pty	            55.1%	 44.9%


SIZE
............Mix	Dem	GOP
BigCities	10%	68%	30%
SmCities	20%	57%	41%
Suburbs	       47%	50%	48%
SmTowns	        5%	49%	48%
Rural	      18%	48%	51%

Total	             52.8% 45.3%
2-pty	             53.8% 46.2%
			
REGION			
............Mix	Dem	GOP
East	      22%	63%	35%
MidW	      27%	52%	47%
South	      30%	45%	53%
West	      21%	54%	43%

Total	            52.7%	 45.3%
2-pty	            53.8%	 46.2%
			
VOTED FOR SENATE			
............Mix	Dem	GOP
Dem	      55%	88%	11%
Rep	      41%	11%	88%

Total	            52.9%	 42.1%
2-pty	            55.7%	 44.3%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...

These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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1 replies to this thread:

120 Pre-election Generic Polls vs. the Final National Exit poll ,

TruthIsAll, Sat Nov-11-06 09:51 PM

#1: Good luck on this on,

Kid of the Black Hole, Nov 12th 2006

Reply #1: Good luck on this on

Kid of the Black Hole

Member since Aug 01st 2006

2960 posts

Sun Nov-12-06 02:16 PM
In response to Original Post

you will just be seen as a buzzkill now and even easier to write off than
before.  Democrats have no idea.  2004 was probably just as big a win for them
and youth voters as 06 was but they'll never hear about it.

-Mr Nice Guy

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