National and State Exit Polls on CNN: the numbers were changing.

The sample-size of 13,208 in the preliminary exit poll was increased to 13,251 in the final.

Here's the current CNN version:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/sta...

For comparison, here is the NYT demographic summary:


__________________________________________________________________
These sites tracked the exit polls.

THINKPROGRESS.ORG
A link to early exit polls: Webb 52-47
http://thinkprogress.org/2006/11/07/senate-exit-po.../

POLITICALWIRE.COM
Another link to early numbers, confirming the Webb 53-46 lead:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/11/07/exit_...

Some comments from POLLSTER.COM which was tracking the exit polls:
http://www.pollster.com/exit_polls/live_blogging_e...

How come no one at POLLSTER.COM mentioned the 7% Webb lead at 7pm?
__________________________________________________

Allen's approximate number from this tabulation is
(.49*.53) + (.51*.43) = 47.9
Webb's number (.49*.46) + (.51*.56) = 51.1

Posted by: bebop | November 7, 2006 7:49 PM
___________________________________________

The exit poll percentages on CNN are now different than your original post. Recalculating the marginals now gives Allen the lead in the exit poll.
Why might the exit poll percentages have changed?
Posted by: Pat Ross | November 7, 2006 9:10 PM
___________________________________________

I've tried to estimate exit poll margins from a few of the tabulations for the 22 Senate polls I have so far (all of which I think I saved before they were updated). Those tabulations presumably are based on composite estimates incorporating pre-election returns.

When I compare the margins to the Pollster.com pre-election average margins, the exit polls appear to be running about 3.8 points more Dem than the pre-election polls -- which suggests that the actual gap could be wider. Several caveats on that: (1) I can already tell that my eyeballed margin in Missouri is about a point too large, so the gap could narrow. (2) Exit poll discrepancies have generally run high in the Northeast, which is overrepresented. The biggest discrepancies so far appear to be in non-competitive races, with the possible exception of CT. (3) Some part of this may be attributable to Democratic surge, and I don't have enough info yet to estimate that possible effect.

Posted by: Mark Lindeman | November 7, 2006 10:00 PM
__________________________________________________

CNN is now reporting Webb with a 2500 vote lead. But it doesn't jive with the link I posted earlier. CNN has Webb leading at roughly 1,141,000 to 1,138,000. However, the link makes those numbers strange, perhaps counted or reported in a different order, since the link currently has Allen ahead roughly 1,139,000 to 1,137,000.

Posted by: Gary Kilbride | November 8, 2006 12:05 AM
___________________________________________

In the past 10 minutes, all the voting data from Yellowstone County has disappeared! The last I saw Tester was slightly ahead with over 40% of precincts reporting. Now no votes are showing up.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/st...
http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2006/county.sh...
What is going on?!

Posted by: Marc Gans | November 8, 2006 3:27 AM

_____________________________________

Preliminary Senate Exit Polls
(posted on CNN at 7pm)

......7pmExit Final Exit
Avg 53.0 45.9 52.5 46.4
......Dem GOP Dem GOP
MT 53 46 50.0 47.5
MO 50 48 48.8 47.7
OH 57 43 56.0 44.0
PA 57 42 59.0 41.0
RI 53 46 53.8 46.2
TN 48 51 48.1 50.9
VA 53 46 50.1 49.9
NJ 53 45 54.2 43.9



FINAL STATE EXIT POLLS -posted on CNN
(these were matched to the recorded vote)

GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC

Ohio
2,293 Respondents
Updated: 2:13 a.m.
MoE 2.04%
Gender Mix Rep Dem
Male 48 45% 55%
Female 52 43% 57%
Total 100% 44.0% 56.0%

Missouri
2,597 Respondents
Updated: 2:32 a.m.
MoE 1.92%
Gender Mix Rep Dem
Male 45 51% 46%
Female 55 45% 51%
Total 96.5% 47.7% 48.8%

New Jersey
2,013 Respondents
Updated: 11:21 p.m.
MoE 2.18%
Gender Mix Rep Dem
Male 48 47% 50%
Female 52 41% 58%
Total 98.1% 43.9% 54.2%


Montana
1,902 Respondents
Updated: 1:46 a.m.
MoE 2.25%
Gender Mix Rep Dem
Male 49 50% 48%
Female 51 45% 52%
Total 97.5% 47.5% 50.0%


Arizona
2,543 Respondents
Updated: 1:42 a.m.
MoE 1.90%
Gender Mix Rep Dem
Male 49 55% 40%
Female 51 50% 46%
Total 95.4% 52.5% 43.1%


Pennsylvania
2,421 Respondents
Updated: 2:15 a.m.
MoE 1.97%
Gender Mix Rep Dem
Male 49 43% 57%
Female 51 39% 61%
Total 100% 41.0% 59.0%


Rhode Island
1,173 Respondents
Updated: 11:56 p.m.
MoE 2.86%
Gender Mix Rep Dem
Male 46 50% 50%
Female 54 43% 57%
Total 100% 46.2% 53.8%


Tennessee
2,512 Respondents
Updated: 12:59 a.m.
MoE 1.95%
Gender Mix Rep Dem
Male 49 54% 45%
Female 51 48% 51%
Total 100% 50.9% 48.1%

Virginia
2,011 Respondents
Updated: 2:21 a.m.
MoE 2.17%
Gender Mix Rep Dem
Male 49 55% 45%
Female 51 45% 55%
Total 100% 49.9% 50.1%

______________________________________________________

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

It was especially eggregious for male/female ratios as compared to the past.

Did we suddenly have a serious drop off of female voters or a huge increase in
male voters?  What gives?

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

Not necessarily in that order.

It's just further proof that the final exit polls are manipulated. 
Except in this case, they have nothing to work with. The Dem turnout was
overwhelming. CNN/exit pollsters look very inept. The NYT Exit poll summary,
although off, is much closer to the truth.

CNN et al are scrambling to maintain the illusion that Bush won in 2004.
They refuse to face the fact of Dem dominance in all demographics, especially
those I have analyzed: gender, party-id, voted in 2004.

I believe females voted 59%-41% Democratic, since the final Generic polls had
the Dems ahead by 57-43% and its a well-known fact that the female Dem vote is
at least 3% higher than the male Dem vote.

Febble/OTOH, are you listening?

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Compare to CNN at 7pm and the Final

	NATIONAL EXIT POLL (CNN)			
      13208 Respondents
      Updated: 7pm Nov.7

	GENDER			
	Sample: 13208
	MOE	0.87%
..............CNN............... NY Times     
	......Mix	Dem 	GOP   Mix Dem GOP
	Male 	48%	51%	47%   48  52 48
	Female 52%	56%	43%   52  56 44
	Total	98.5%	53.6%	44.9% 100 54 46
	2-pty	100%	54.4%	45.6%

	TIA: Adjusted to match Final Generic Polls
	Male 	46%	53%	47%
	Female 54%	57%	43%
	Total	 100%	55.2%	44.8%
________________________				

      HOW VOTED IN 2004
      ........ Mix Dem GOP
       Kerry   45% 94% 5%  
       Bush    46% 13% 85% 
       Other    5% 62% 21% 
       No       4% 79% 18%
       Total 97.6% 54.5% 43.1%
       2-pty  100% 55.8% 44.2%

      TIA: Adjusted to match Final Generic Polls			
	......Mix	Dem 	GOP
	Kerry	51.5%	94%	5%
	Bush	46.0%	13%	85%
	Other	1.5%	62%	21%
	No	1.0%	79%	18%
	Total	98.3%	56.1%	42.2%
	2-pty	100%  57.1%	42.9%
___________________________

      PARTY ID
..............CNN................NYT	
	......Mix	Dem	Rep   Mix Dem Rep
	Dem	38%	90%	9%    39  93  7
	Rep	38%	7%	93%   36  92  8
	Ind	25%	49%	46%   25  59  41
	Total	100%	49.1%	50.3% 100 53.9 46.1

	TIA: Adjusted to match Final Generic Polls		
	......Mix	Dem	Rep
	Dem	40%	93%	7%
	Rep	35%	11%	89%
	Ind	25%	60%	40%
	Total	100%	56.05% 43.95%
				
_______________________________________________

			
	NATIONAL EXIT POLL (CNN)			
	13,251 Respondents
	Updated: 1:00 p.m. Nov.8	
				
	GENDER			
	......Mix	Dem	Rep
	Male 	49%	50%	47%  changed from 48/52 (which understated female %) 
	Female 51%	55%	43%  The mix was 46/54 in 2004 
	Total	97.6%	52.6%	45.0%
	2-pty	100%	53.9%	46.1%
				
	PARTY ID			
	......Mix	Dem	Rep
	Dem	38%	93%	7%  changed it from 38/38/25; still understates Dem
	Rep	36%	8%	91%
	Ind	26%	57%	39%
	Total	98.6%	53.0%	45.6%
	2-pty	100%	53.8%	46.2%

				
	VOTED IN 2004			
	......Mix	Dem	Rep
	Kerry	43%	92%	7%  changed from 45/46; Kerry won by 52/47
	Bush 	49%	15%	83%
	Other	4%	66%	23% 3rd part vote was 1%; why the discrepancy?
	No 	4%	66%	32%
	Total	98.1%	52.2%	45.9%
	2-pty	100%	53.2%	46.8%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.