There is a 94% probability the Dems will win at least 43 GOP seats and win
control of the House 245-190 - assuming ZERO fraud. 

For the GOP to retain control, they will need to steal 35 seats, assuming the 
Dems win fewer than 14 seats in which they lead beyond the MoE. But they may
just steal 20-25, since a complete theft would be too obvious. 

Win Probability Sensitivity Analysis		
UVA: Undecided Voter Allocation to Dems																			
UVA	50	55	60	67	75				
N	Probability (Dems win at least N races)							
41	80	97	99.9	100	100				
43	30	71	94	100	100				
45	2	15	48	89	100				
		
Probability that the Dems will win N seats, assuming 60% UVA:		
N	 41	 42	43	44	45	46	47	48	
Prob	 99.9	98.8	94	79	48	17	4	0.1	

House makeup:
Dems	243	244	245	246	247	248	249	250	
GOP	192	191	190	189	188	187	186	185	
		
											
Proj: projections based on most recent polls (adjusted for 60% UVA)

District	10/26	Dem	GOP	11/03	Dem	GOP	Chg	DemProjGOP	Prob
Code	     Average	46.9	46.5	Latest 47.0	44.7	1.8	52.0	48.0	98%
											
1	AZ 1	10/26	46	48	10/26	46	48	0 	49.6	50.4	34
2	AZ 5	10/15	45	48	10/15	48	46	5 	51.6	48.4	95
3	AZ 8	10/2	45	37	10/29	53	41	4 	56.6	43.4	100
4	CA 4	10/26	46	49	10/26	39	39	3 	52.2	47.8	99
5	CA 11	10/26	48	46	10/26	48	46	0 	51.6	48.4	95

6	CA 50	9/12	40	54	9/12	40	54	0 	43.6	56.4	0
7	CO 4	10/26	48	45	10/26	48	45	0 	52.2	47.8	99
8	CO 5	10/18	38	51	10/27	40	47	6 	47.8	52.2	1
9	CO 7	10/26	51	46	10/31	54	38	11 	58.8	41.2	100
10	CT 2	10/26	51	45	10/29	48	47	(5)	51.0	49.0	85

11	CT 4	10/26	42	52	10/30	51	44	17 	54.0	46.0	100
12	CT 5	10/26	51	43	10/29	46	43	(5)	52.6	47.4	100
13	FL 13	10/26	49	47	10/26	49	47	0 	51.4	48.6	93
14	FL 16	10/13	48	41	10/13	48	41	0 	54.6	45.4	100
15	FL 22	10/26	50	48	10/26	50	48	0 	51.2	48.8	89

16	FL 24	10/24	43	45	10/24	43	45	0 	50.2	49.8	58
17	ID 1	10/26	37	39	11/1	38	34	6 	54.8	45.2	100
18	IL 6	10/26	48	47	10/29	54	40	13 	57.6	42.4	100
19	IL 10	10/26	48	46	10/26	48	46	0 	51.6	48.4	95
20	IL 14	10/10	42	52	10/10	42	52	0 	45.6	54.4	0

21	IL 19	10/10	36	53	10/10	36	53	0 	42.6	57.4	0
22	IN 2	10/26	48	45	10/31	52	43	6 	55.0	45.0	100
23	IN 8	10/26	53	43	10/26	53	43	0 	55.4	44.6	100
24	IN 9	10/26	51	43	10/26	51	43	0 	54.6	45.4	100
25	IA 1	10/8	48	50	10/29	49	42	9 	54.4	45.6	100

26	IA 2	10/26	48	47	10/26	48	47	0 	51.0	49.0	85
27	KY 3	10/26	52	46	11/1	52	44	2 	54.4	45.6	100
28	KY 4	10/26	50	46	10/29	45	42	(1)	52.8	47.2	100
29	MN 1	10/26	47	50	10/26	47	50	0 	48.8	51.2	11
30	MN 2	10/15	42	50	10/15	42	50	0 	46.8	53.2	0

31	MN 6	10/26	47	48	10/26	42	52	(9)	45.6	54.4	0
32	NV 3	10/26	44	51	10/30	39	46	0 	48.0	52.0	2
33	NH 1	10/8	37	49	11/2	42	47	7 	48.6	51.4	7
34	NH 2	10/26	50	47	11/2	45	37	5 	55.8	44.2	100
35	NJ 7	10/26	43	46	10/26	43	46	0 	49.6	50.4	34

36	NM 1	10/19	45	42	10/29	53	44	6 	54.8	45.2	100
37	NY 3	10/10	44	51	10/10	44	51	0 	47.0	53.0	0
38	NY 19	10/26	49	47	10/26	49	47	0 	51.4	48.6	93
39	NY 20	10/26	53	42	10/26	53	42	0 	56.0	44.0	100
40	NY 24	10/10	53	42	10/10	53	42	0 	56.0	44.0	100

41	NY 26	10/18	46	49	10/26	53	44	12 	54.8	45.2	100
42	NY 29	10/26	43	42	10/26	53	42	10 	56.0	44.0	100
43	NC 8	10/26	48	44	10/26	48	44	0 	52.8	47.2	100
44	NC 11	10/26	53	44	10/26	48	43	(4)	53.4	46.6	100
45	OH 1	10/26	46	48	10/26	48	46	4 	51.6	48.4	95

46	OH 2	10/17	46	51	10/31	48	45	8 	52.2	47.8	99
47	OH 6	10/18	64	32	10/18	64	32	0 	66.4	33.6	100
48	OH 15	10/10	53	41	10/10	53	41	0 	56.6	43.4	100
49	OH 18	10/11	48	41	10/27	53	33	13 	61.4	38.6	100
50	OK 5	10/10	33	62	10/10	33	62	0 	36.0	64.0	0

51	PA 4	10/26	47	51	10/26	48	46	6 	51.6	48.4	95
52	PA 6	10/26	51	46	10/29	49	44	0 	53.2	46.8	100
53	PA 7	10/10	52	44	10/24	50	43	(1)	54.2	45.8	100
54	PA 8	10/26	50	47	10/30	46	41	2 	53.8	46.2	100
55	PA 10	10/23	48	39	10/26	47	38	0 	56.0	44.0	100

56	TX 22	na	na	na	10/25	36	28	na	57.6	42.4	100
57	VA 2	10/26	50	45	10/29	43	51	(13)	46.6	53.4	0
58	VA 5	10/10	40	56	10/10	40	56	0 	42.4	57.6	0
59	VA 10	10/10	42	47	10/10	42	47	0 	48.6	51.4	7
60	WA 8	10/26	49	47	10/30	45	51	(8)	47.4	52.6	0
61	WI 8	10/26	51	45	10/26	51	45	0 	53.4	46.6	100

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.