MONTE CARLO SIMULATION 
HOUSE ELECTION FORECAST 

61 GOP House seats
Democrats need to win 15 to gain control.

Sensitivity Analysis
--------------------
Base case: 60% of undecided voters (UVA) break for Democratic challengers.	
								
UVA	50	55	60	67	75			
N	Probability (Dems win at least N races)						
41	80	97	99.9	100	100			
43	30	71	94	100	100			
45	2	15	48	89	100			

Probability that Democrats win at least N seats:
N	41	42	43	44	45	46	47	48
Prob	99.9	98.8	94	79	48	17	4	0.1

Here's a graph:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006_22243_image001.png


New House make-up:
Dems	243	244	245	246	247	248	249	250
GOP	192	191	190	189	188	187	186	185
___________________________________________________________________

ELECTION FRAUD SCENARIO ANALYSIS
---------------------------------

Current Projections (Pre-hack, assume ZERO fraud): 
Dems win 44 of 61 GOP seats and capture the House 246-189.
Average Vote share: Dem 52% - GOP 48%

Fraud Scenario Assumptions 
(required for GOP to Win House):
1. 3% of votes are not counted (75% Democratic)
2. 11% of Democratic votes are switched to GOP

Post-hack (MASSIVE FRAUD):	
31 elections are switched from Democrats to GOP
The Democrats win 13 seats, 2 shy of the 15 required for a majority.
The GOP wins 47 seats and retain the House.
Vote share: GOP 53.9% - Dem 46.1%

This is a graph of the relationship between the percentage of switched votes
and the number of stolen House elections:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006Final1105a_21869_image001.png

A graph of district vote shares - before and after hacking:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Election2006Final1105a_16256_image001.png

Projections based on latest polls (60% UVA to Dems)
---------------------------------------------------

				 		               Pre-hack    	        Post-hack		
District	Oct.26	Dem	GOP	Nov.3	Dem	GOP	Dem	GOP	Prob	Dem	GOP	Switch
Code	Average	     46.9	46.5	Latest	47.0	44.6	52.0	48.0	98.0	46.1	53.9	31
													
1	AZ 1	10/26	46	48	10/26	46	48	49.6	50.4	34	43.5	56.5	
2	AZ 5	10/15	45	48	10/15	48	46	51.6	48.4	95	45.6	54.4	yes
3	AZ 8	10/2	45	37	10/29	53	41	56.6	43.4	100	50.9	49.1	
4	CA 4	10/26	46	49	10/26	39	39	52.2	47.8	99	46.2	53.8	yes
5	CA 11	10/26	48	46	10/26	48	46	51.6	48.4	95	45.6	54.4	yes

6	CA 50	9/12	40	54	9/12	40	54	43.6	56.4	0	37.2	62.8	
7	CO 4	10/26	48	45	11/3	43	44	50.8	49.2	80	44.7	55.3	yes
8	CO 5	10/18	38	51	10/27	40	47	47.8	52.2	1	41.6	58.4	
9	CO 7	10/26	51	46	10/31	54	38	58.8	41.2	100	53.3	46.7	
10	CT 2	10/26	51	45	10/29	48	47	51.0	49.0	85	45.0	55.0	yes

11	CT 4	10/26	42	52	10/30	51	44	54.0	46.0	100	48.2	51.8	yes
12	CT 5	10/26	51	43	10/29	46	43	52.6	47.4	100	46.7	53.3	yes
13	FL 13	10/26	49	47	10/26	49	47	51.4	48.6	93	45.4	54.6	yes
14	FL 16	10/13	48	41	10/13	48	41	54.6	45.4	100	48.8	51.2	yes
15	FL 22	10/26	50	48	10/26	50	48	51.2	48.8	89	45.2	54.8	yes

16	FL 24	10/24	43	45	10/24	43	45	50.2	49.8	58	44.1	55.9	yes
17	ID 1	10/26	37	39	11/1	38	34	54.8	45.2	100	49.0	51.0	yes
18	IL 6	10/26	48	47	10/29	54	40	57.6	42.4	100	52.0	48.0	
19	IL 10	10/26	48	46	10/26	48	46	51.6	48.4	95	45.6	54.4	yes
20	IL 14	10/10	42	52	10/10	42	52	45.6	54.4	0	39.3	60.7	

21	IL 19	10/10	36	53	10/10	36	53	42.6	57.4	0	36.2	63.8	
22	IN 2	10/26	48	45	10/31	52	43	55.0	45.0	100	49.2	50.8	yes
23	IN 8	10/26	53	43	10/26	53	43	55.4	44.6	100	49.7	50.3	
24	IN 9	10/26	51	43	10/26	51	43	54.6	45.4	100	48.8	51.2	yes
25	IA 1	10/8	48	50	10/29	49	42	54.4	45.6	100	48.6	51.4	yes

26	IA 2	10/26	48	47	10/26	48	47	51.0	49.0	85	45.0	55.0	yes
27	KY 3	10/26	52	46	11/1	52	44	54.4	45.6	100	48.6	51.4	yes
28	KY 4	10/26	50	46	10/29	45	42	52.8	47.2	100	46.9	53.1	yes
29	MN 1	10/26	47	50	10/26	47	50	48.8	51.2	11	42.6	57.4	
30	MN 2	10/15	42	50	10/15	42	50	46.8	53.2	0	40.5	59.5	

31	MN 6	10/26	47	48	10/26	42	52	45.6	54.4	0	39.3	60.7	
32	NV 3	10/26	44	51	10/30	39	46	48.0	52.0	2	41.8	58.2	
33	NH 1	10/8	37	49	11/2	42	47	48.6	51.4	7	42.4	57.6	
34	NH 2	10/26	50	47	11/2	45	37	55.8	44.2	100	50.1	49.9	
35	NJ 7	10/26	43	46	10/26	43	46	49.6	50.4	34	43.5	56.5	

36	NM 1	10/19	45	42	10/29	53	44	54.8	45.2	100	49.0	51.0	yes
37	NY 3	10/10	44	51	10/10	44	51	47.0	53.0	0	40.7	59.3	
38	NY 19	10/26	49	47	10/26	49	47	51.4	48.6	93	45.4	54.6	yes
39	NY 20	10/26	53	42	10/26	53	42	56.0	44.0	100	50.3	49.7	
40	NY 24	10/10	53	42	10/10	53	42	56.0	44.0	100	50.3	49.7	

41	NY 26	10/18	46	49	10/26	53	44	54.8	45.2	100	49.0	51.0	yes
42	NY 29	10/26	43	42	10/26	53	42	56.0	44.0	100	50.3	49.7	
43	NC 8	10/26	48	44	10/26	48	44	52.8	47.2	100	46.9	53.1	yes
44	NC 11	10/26	53	44	10/26	48	43	53.4	46.6	100	47.5	52.5	yes
45	OH 1	10/26	46	48	10/26	48	46	51.6	48.4	95	45.6	54.4	yes

46	OH 2	10/17	46	51	10/31	48	45	52.2	47.8	99	46.2	53.8	yes
47	OH 6	10/18	64	32	10/18	64	32	66.4	33.6	100	61.7	38.3	
48	OH 15	10/10	53	41	10/10	53	41	56.6	43.4	100	50.9	49.1	
49	OH 18	10/11	48	41	10/27	53	33	61.4	38.6	100	56.2	43.8	
50	OK 5	10/10	33	62	10/10	33	62	36.0	64.0	0	29.4	70.6	

51	PA 4	10/26	47	51	10/26	48	46	51.6	48.4	95	45.6	54.4	yes
52	PA 6	10/26	51	46	10/29	49	44	53.2	46.8	100	47.3	52.7	yes
53	PA 7	10/10	52	44	10/24	50	43	54.2	45.8	100	48.4	51.6	yes
54	PA 8	10/26	50	47	10/30	46	41	53.8	46.2	100	47.9	52.1	yes
55	PA 10	10/23	48	39	10/26	47	38	56.0	44.0	100	50.3	49.7	

56	TX 22	na	na	na	10/25	36	28	57.6	42.4	100	52.0	48.0	
57	VA 2	10/26	50	45	10/29	43	51	46.6	53.4	0	40.3	59.7	
58	VA 5	10/10	40	56	10/10	40	56	42.4	57.6	0	36.0	64.0	
59	VA 10	10/10	42	47	10/10	42	47	48.6	51.4	7	42.4	57.6	
60	WA 8	10/26	49	47	10/30	45	51	47.4	52.6	0	41.2	58.8	
61	WI 8	10/26	51	45	10/26	51	45	53.4	46.6	100	47.5	52.5	yes

_______________________________________________________________________

ELECTION FRAUD MODEL			

Purpose: 
Determine the level of fraud required to reverse the true vote 
(assumed equal to the final poll).

Application to Final House polls: 
Determine the level of fraud necessary in each district in order for the GOP to
steal the election. The analysis is based on the final pre-election polls, the
expected percentage split of uncounted votes, and the percentage undecided
voter split.	

There are three primary categories: 
1)Voter disenfranchisement
2)Uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, discarded, etc.)
3)Switched votes at the voting machine and/or central tabulator.	

Although it's a major fraud component, disenfranchisement is not
factored into the model. True vote shares are matched to the final pre-election
polls. Approximately 3% of total votes cast are never counted. 
The majority of uncounted votes are in minority districts.

Example: 
a) Democrats lead 50-47% in the final pre-election poll.
b) 60% of undecided votes break for the Democratic challenger.
c) 4% of Democratic votes are switched to the GOP.

Note: The 2.36% "breakeven" vote switch is the calculated minimum
switch necessary for the election to end up a TIE.

ASSUMPTIONS:			
Poll MoE	    MoE	       3%	
Dem Poll	    DP	       50	
Rep Poll	    RP	       47	
Undecided Vote	   UVA	      60% to Dem
Spoiled Votes 	   VSP	       3% (assume 75% are Dem)
Switched Votes	   VSW	       4% from Dem to Rep

Calculate:	       Dem	Rep						
PRE-HACK 	      51.80	48.20	 (after UVA adj.)					
Less:Spoiled         2.25    0.99						
Adj. Vote share	49.55	47.21						
2-Party Vote	       51.21	48.79						
								
Switched	      -2.05	 2.05						
POST-HACK	      49.16	50.84						

Breakeven Switch	2.36%	 (for 50/50 result)						

Prob. of Discrepancy: 4.2% (2-party pre-hack less post-hack)						
Sensitivity analysis: 
Switched Votes	    0%	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	6%	7%
Probability 	   35%	24%	15%	8%	4.2%	2%	0.8%	0.3%
_____________________________________________________________________________

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

as your excellent chart documents between 12:22 AMest and 1:25 AMest.

[b][i]do we know who and how?[/b][/i]

I believe remembering there was a stastically impossible
huge change, when I think, only a few more polled voters
were added to the total pool.

describing the latin root
of the word `religion' -- religare -- as being re-, back + ligare, link;
meaning to link back to the universe,
to be reconnected to the source of one's own genesis
and of all creation.
Webster's defines ligare as bind, (to tie together) which is close
to the meaning of link (to connect or tie).
In either sense, seen in this way, living one's life with such a "religious attitude"
expresses the urge to manifest
more of the wholeness of one's totality.
Seeking such meaning in one's experience of being
does not necessarily
relate to any specific creed.
~The New Myth> For Our Species: The Creation of Consciousness



You Inspired
CHANGE Transpired...

JFK quotes you may have not heard






Erikson was describing that ineffable quality we call charisma,
and the way an individual life history sometimes converges with the historical moment:
"Now and again," Erikson wrote, "an individual is called upon," to lift his personal conflicts
to the level of cultural conflicts,
"and to try to solve for all
what he could not solve for himself alone."


A man lives not only his personal life,
as an individual,
but also, consciously or unconsciously,
the life of his epoch and his contemporaries.
~Thomas Mann

The exit pollsters had to change ALL demographic category weights and/or vote
shares from the 12:22am poll timeline.

Unfortunately, the only way they could get the "How Voted in 2000"
demographic to match the recorded vote was to apply IMPOSSIBLE weights: They
claimed Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% of the 2004 vote total (122.3mm). But
it's mathematically impossible, since 43% of 122.3mm is 52.59mm; Bush only got
50.46mm votes in 2000. Approximately 1.75mm of them died, leaving a maximum of
48.7mm alive to vote in 2004. 

But 48.7 is 39.8% of 122.3 (and that assumes 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout in
2004). Likewise, Gore at 37% was mathematically impossible, since if Bush's
weghting dropped 3.2%, Gore had to go up by nearly the same.

For details, see my related post pinned at the top of the forum. 

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

I laughed when I saw your challenge
to find ONE possible scenario.

that challenge is really untouchable!



we need to blind 'them ' with science.

describing the latin root
of the word `religion' -- religare -- as being re-, back + ligare, link;
meaning to link back to the universe,
to be reconnected to the source of one's own genesis
and of all creation.
Webster's defines ligare as bind, (to tie together) which is close
to the meaning of link (to connect or tie).
In either sense, seen in this way, living one's life with such a "religious attitude"
expresses the urge to manifest
more of the wholeness of one's totality.
Seeking such meaning in one's experience of being
does not necessarily
relate to any specific creed.
~The New Myth> For Our Species: The Creation of Consciousness



You Inspired
CHANGE Transpired...

JFK quotes you may have not heard






Erikson was describing that ineffable quality we call charisma,
and the way an individual life history sometimes converges with the historical moment:
"Now and again," Erikson wrote, "an individual is called upon," to lift his personal conflicts
to the level of cultural conflicts,
"and to try to solve for all
what he could not solve for himself alone."


A man lives not only his personal life,
as an individual,
but also, consciously or unconsciously,
the life of his epoch and his contemporaries.
~Thomas Mann

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

I can imagine the media the day after the election trumpeting the Dem wins - "the Democrats picked up 13 seats in the House. Not as big a win as some had predicted, but a significant gain. Many races were extremely close. Apparently the Republican base was motivated to come out to the polls at the last minute, staving off what many had predicted would be a much worse scenario for the Republicans. To find out what this all means, we go now to our correspondent Blowdried Perkyface outside of the White House for more analysis."

Would that fly with the public? Would that fly with the crowd at TSTRN?

You who have wept 2000 years
For one who agonized for 3 days and 3 nights

What tears will you have left
For those who agonized
Far more than 300 nights and far more than 300 days?
How hard
Shall you weep
For those who agonized through so many agonies
And they were countless

They did not believe in resurrection to eternal life
And knew you would not weep.