A Monte Carlo Forecast Simulation 
(1000 election trials)

This is an update to a prior analysis of 31 competitive GOP-held seats. The
data base now includes polls for 58 seats.

Current House: 232 GOP; 202 Dem; 1 Ind
The Democrats need to capture 16 GOP seats (net) to gain control of the House.

How many of the 58-contested GOP House seats can the Democrats expect to win,
assuming a FRAUD-FREE election? To put another way: How many elections must the
GOP steal to maintain control? 

In the MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, in which it is assumed that the Democrats will win
60% of the undecided vote, they can expect to capture 32 of the 58 GOP-held
seats. The probability is 99% that they will win more than 30. 

Therefore, in order to retain the House, the GOP will HAVE TO STEAL A MINIMUM
of 16 (32-16) elections.  

In the 58 races,
1) Democrats lead in 15 polls beyond the MoE
2) Democrats lead in 11 within the MoE
3) Dems TIE the GOP in 5
4) GOP leads in 15 within the MoE
5) GOP leads in 12 beyond the MoE

THE CLOSEST RACES WITHIN THE MOE ARE THE ONES MOST LIKELY FOR FRAUD. 
They are the 22 districts between PA-6 and NY-29 on this chart:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GOP58HouseSeats1015_12021_image001.png

The analysis ASSUMES ZERO FRAUD. It is based strictly on the latest poll
shares, undecided voter allocation and margin of error. The model will be
updated for new polling data and run again just prior to election day.  

The goal of the simulation is to calculate a range of probabilities of the
Democrats winning a specified number of the 58 elections, over a range of
undecided voter allocation assumptions.  The simulation produces a VERY ROBUST
ESTIMATE of the number of elections that would need to be stolen in order for
the GOP to retain control of the House. 
 
In a published study of over 150 elections, the challenger won the undecided
vote 82% of the time. Even with the VERY CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTION that the
Democrats will win just 50% of the undecided, it's a virtual 100% probability
that they will WIN AT LEAST 25 SEATS, NINE more than they need for a House
MAJORITY, assuming NO FRAUD.
 

Sensitivity Analysis
--------------------

UVA: Undecided voter % allocated to Democrats
UVA              50	 55	 60	 67	 75			
Dems win 	  ----------Probability%--------
25 seats	  100	100	100	100	100			
30 seats	   35	85	99	100	100			
35 seats	    0	3	30	90	100			
40 seats	    0	0	0	5	70			
45 seats	    0	0	0	0	1

Assuming a 60% UVA, the probability of Dems winning N seats:
N	15	20	25	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39
Prob	100	100	100	99	96	86	75	51	30	13	4	1	0

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GOP58HouseSeats1015_30243_image001.png
			

Polling Detail
--------------

Adjusted: Dem & GOP polls 
(60% undecided to Democrat)
Prob: probability of Democratic win

Num District Pollster	       Poll	 MoE	Poll	Dem	GOP      Adjusted    Prob
	Code	Average	       Sample	3.80	Date   45.4	45.9	50.6	49.4	57.8%
										
1	AZ 1	RT Strategies	983 LV	3.09	10/10	50	46	52.4	47.6	99.9%
2	AZ 5	SurveyUSA	509 LV	4.40	10/15	45	48	49.2	50.8	23.8%
3	AZ 8	Zogby	       500 LV	4.50	10/2	45	37	55.8	44.2	100.0%
4	CA 4	RT Strategies	997 LV	3.09	10/10	44	52	46.4	53.6	0.0%
5	CA 11	Greenberg	413 LV 4.90	9/26	48	46	51.6	48.4	90.0%

6	CA 50	SurveyUSA	540 LV	4.30	9/12	40	54	43.6	56.4	0.0%
7	CO 4	Mason-Dixon	400 LV	5.00	10/7	36	46	46.8	53.2	0.6%
8	CO 5	Mason-Dixon	400 LV	5.00	10/7	37	37	52.6	47.4	97.9%
9	CO 7	RT Strategies	991 LV	3.09	10/10	47	47	50.6	49.4	77.7%
10	CT 2	Zogby	       500 LV	4.50	10/2	41	44	50.0	50.0	50.0%

11	CT 4	Zogby	       500 LV 4.50   10/2	46	41	53.8	46.2	100.0%
12	CT 5	RT Strategies	996 LV	3.09	10/10	46	52	47.2	52.8	0.0%
13	FL 13	RT Strategies	1024 LV	3.07	10/10	47	44	52.4	47.6	99.9%
14	FL 16	RT Strategies	1001 LV	3.09	10/1   50	43	54.2	45.8	100.0%
15	FL 22	RT Strategies	1022 LV	3.10	8/29	44	52	46.4	53.6	0.0%

16	ID 1	RT Strategies	998 LV	3.09	10/10	43	49	47.8	52.2	0.3%
17	IL 6	RT Strategies	997 LV	3.07	10/10	47	47	50.6	49.4	77.8%
18	IL 10	Mellman Group 400 LV 4.90	10/11	32	49	43.4	56.6	0.0%
19	IL 14	RT Strategies	1003 LV	3.08	10/10	42	52	45.6	54.4	0.0%
20	IL 19	RT Strategies	1023 LV	3.08	10/10	36	53	42.6	57.4	0.0%

21	IN 2	RT Strategies	989 LV	3.07	10/10	50	46	52.4	47.6	99.9%
22	IN 8	Indiana State 626 LV	3.90	10/12	55	32	62.5	37.5	100.0%
23	IN 9	SurveyUSA     512 LV 4.40   10/15	48	46	51.6	48.4	92.3%
24	IA 1	Bennett, Petts	400 RV	4.90	10/8	48	37	57.0	43.0	100.0%
25	IA 2	RT Strategies	1006 LV	3.09	10/10	48	47	51.0	49.0	89.8%

26	KY 3	RT Strategies	996 LV	3.09	10/10	48	48	50.4	49.6	69.4%
27	KY 4	RT Strategies	1000 LV	3.09	10/10	46	49	49.0	51.0	10.2%
28	MN 1	RT Strategies	1024 LV	3.08	10/10	47	48	50.0	50.0	50.0%
29	MN 2	SurveyUSA     519 LV 4.40   10/15	42	50	46.8	53.2	0.2%
30	MN 6	RT Strategies	995 LV	3.09	10/10	50	45	53.0	47.0	100.0%

31	NV 3	Mason-Dixon   400 RV	5.00	9/21	37	47	46.6	53.4	0.4%
32	NH 1	Research 2000	300 LV	6.00	9/14	31	56	38.8	61.2	0.0%
33	NH 2	Univ of NH    220 LV 6.20	9/24	36	46	46.8	53.2	2.2%
34	NJ 7	RT Strategies	1022 LV	3.10	10/10	46	48	49.6	50.4	30.6%
35	NM 1	RT Strategies	986 LV	3.09	10/10	52	44	54.4	45.6	100.0%

36	NY 3	RT Strategies	984 LV	3.09	10/10	46	48	49.6	50.4	30.6%
37	NY 19	Abacus Assoc 600 RV	4.00	9/15	44	49	48.2	51.8	3.9%
38	NY 20	Grove Insight	400 RV	4.90	10/13	41	42	51.2	48.8	83.1%
39	NY 24	RT Strategies	1029 LV	3.07	10/10	53	42	56.0	44.0	100.0%
40	NY 26	RT Strategies	1056 LV	3.07	10/10	56	40	58.4	41.6	100.0%

41	NY 29	Cooper&Secrest	503 LV	4.40	9/21	39	43	49.8	50.2	42.9%
42	NC 8	RT Strategies	1029 LV	3.08	10/10	51	44	54.0	46.0	100.0%
43	NC 11	RT Strategies	979 LV	3.09	10/10	51	43	54.6	45.4	100.0%
44	OH 1	Anzalone-Liszt	500 LV	4.40	8/01	45	45	51.0	49.0	81.4%
45	OH 2	RT Strategies	1003 LV	3.09	10/10	48	45	52.2	47.8	99.7%

46	OH 6	RT Strategies	982 LV	3.10	8/29	56	40	58.4	41.6	100.0%
47	OH 15	RT Strategies 1015 LV 3.09	10/10	53	41	56.6	43.4	100.0%
48	OH 18	Greenberg     400 RV 5.00	10/11	48	41	54.6	45.4	100.0%
49	OK 5	SurveyUSA      435 LV	4.70	10/10	33	62	36.0	64.0	0.0%
50	PA 6	RT Strategies	1023 LV	3.07	10/10	52	46	53.2	46.8	100.0%

51	PA 7	RT Strategies	1017 LV	3.08	10/10	52	44	54.4	45.6	100.0%
52	PA 8	Grove Insight	400 RV	4.90	10/15	44	40	53.6	46.4	99.8%
53	PA 10	Bennett,Petts	400 RV	4.90	10/9	51	37	58.2	41.8	100.0%
54	VA 2	RT Strategies	982 LV	3.10	10/10	46	48	49.6	50.4	30.6%
55	VA 5	SurveyUSA     502 LV	4.40	10/10	40	56	42.4	57.6	0.0%

56	VA 10	RT Strategies	1004 LV	3.07	10/10	42	47	48.6	51.4	3.7%
57	WA 8	RT Strategies	1015 LV	3.09	10/10	45	48	49.2	50.8	15.5%
58	WI 8	RT Strategies	983 LV	3.09	10/10	48	46	51.6	48.4	97.9%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Probability Curve of Democrats winning 15-40 seats


Detailed Polling Data Sorted by Probabilities

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

the attendant study of how many elections are capable of being stolen? ie which ones have been stolen previously, which ones are with the "stealable" margin, etc?

-Mr Nice Guy

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

as extensively as you, however from the linked post it is plain that no election is practically unstealable even on the premise that someone would object to a 10-point miracle turnaround.

-Mr Nice Guy