WINNING THE SENATE: A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION ANALYSIS
1000 simulated trial elections
Based on Senate Polls as of Oct.14

Current Senate: 55 GOP; 44 Dem; 1 Ind

THESE ARE THE 9 CRITICAL RACES: 
NJ, TN, VA, MO, CT, MT, OH, PA, RI

The Dems need to hold their lead in NJ and win 6 of the other 
8 seats for a 50-49-1 majority. 

They have solid leads in 5 and narrowly lead in TN.
They are slightly behind in VA. 
Lieberman (Ind) is far ahead in CT. 

The MOST CRITICAL races which should be CLOSELY MONITORED are VA and TN.
Assuming they win the 5 GOP seats (in which they hold solid leads) and retain
their NJ seat, they need to win either VA or TN for a majority. 

Sensitivity Analysis
--------------------
Assuming ZERO fraud, if the election were held today, the probability is 99%
that the Democrats will win a 50-49 majority, assuming the Democrats win 60% of
the undecided vote. The probability is 91% if they split the undecideds (50%
UVA).

UVA	50	55	60	67	75
N     -------Win Probability----------
6	91	96	99	99.8	100
7	9	15	22	33	50
8	0	0	0	0	0

UVA is the Democratic undecided voter allocation (%)

In the following table of polls:
(C) indicates a critical race
PROB is the probability of a Democratic win (assuming a 60% UVA)

	STATE		DEM;GOP	     DEM%	GOP%	PROB
       Unweighted Poll Average:  49.5%    42.2%   74.3%
	
1	AZ	Pedersen;Kyle	       44	51	0.0%
2	CA	Feinstein;Mountjoy	59	35	100.0%
3	CT	Lamont;Liebermann 	40	53	0.0% (C)
4	DE	Carper;Ting	       63     23	100.0%
5	FL	Nelson;Harris	       61	37	100.0%

6	HI	Akaka; Coffee	       58	30	100.0%
7	MD	Cardin; Steel	       53	44	100.0%
8	ME	Bright;Snowe	       20	68	0.0%
9	MI	Stabenow; Bouchard	53	42	100.0%
10	MN	Klobachar; Kennedy	53	40	100.0%

11	MT	Tester;Burns         50	44	100.0% (C)
12	MO	McCaskill;Talent     51	42	100.0% (C)
13	NE	Nelson; Ricketts     55	32	100.0%
14	NJ	Menendez; Keane      44	40	100.0% (C)
15	NM	Bingaman; McCulloch  57	32	100.0%

16	NV	Carter; Ensign	       42	49	0.0%
17	NY	Clinton; Spencer     66	31	100.0%
18	OH	Brown; DeWine	       54	42	100.0% (C)
19	PA	Casey; Santorum      52	39	100.0% (C)
20	RI	Whitehouse;Chafee    51	42	100.0% (C)

21	TN	Ford; Coker	       48	46	99.9% (C)
22	TX	Radnofsky;Hutchison  30	54	0.0%
23	UT	Asdown; Hatch        25	62	0.0%
24	VA	Webb; Allen	       47	49	21.7% (C)
25	VT	Sanders;Torrent	64	32	100.0%

26	WA	Cantwell;McGavich	54	42	100.0%
27	WI	Kohl; Largo	       47	34	100.0%
28	WV	Byrd; Raese	       63	30	100.0%
29	WY	Groutage;Thomas	32	59	0.0%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.