It's just three weeks until the election, so this post will need to be updated as the polls change. For this analysis, I assume that the election is today.

There are many who now believe the media hype that the Dems may very well sweep Congress. Their lead in the Generic House polls is over 10% and the trend is positive. They have won EVERY ONE OF THE NEAR 100 Generic polls taken over the past year.

http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.p...

So we can confidently assume that the Democrats will get the most votes. But how many will be lost, spoiled or switched to the GOP? In the past three elections, the RECORDED vote differed from the TRUE vote. Why assume that this won't happen again?

These are the current media projections, based on the latest polls:
Senate: 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 1 tie
House: 226 Democrats, 205 Republicans, 4 Ties

Looks good, right? Well, yes, but...
The projections fail to account for:
1)UNCOUNTED BALLOTS: an election tradition of spoiled and lost votes, 75% of them Democratic.
2)HACKABLE VOTING MACHINES: Proven by Johns Hopkins, Princeton, Hursti, etc.
3)CENTRAL TABULATORS: untraceable electronic votes switched in cyberspace.
4)DISENFRANCHISEMENT: new Voter ID requirements, lost registration forms, etc.

There are currently 31 GOP House seats in play.
Categorizing the races:
1) Democrats lead in 9 BEYOND the margin of error
2) Democrats lead in 7 WITHIN the MoE
3) THREE races are TIED
4) Republicans lead in 12

For this analysis, we will assume that the the actual winners in categories 1 and 4 match the polls. So the Democrats NEED to win at least SIX races from categories 2 and 3 in order to gain control. THAT'S THE RUB.

If the election were held today, the probability that the GOP would win at least 1 of the 9 in which the Democratic lead EXCEEDS the 3% polling MoE is 20%; the probability they would win at least 2 is just 2%. Let's assume that the GOP won't win or steal ANY of these seats; it would be too obvious if they tried. Therefore, the best projection estimate is: Dems will win all 9 seats in which they are leading beyond the margin of error.

But the Dems need to win 15 GOP seats to gain control of the House, assuming they keep ALL of their current seats. What's to stop the GOP from stealing 5 of the 10 seats in which the Democratic lead is within the MoE (7 seats) or in which they are tied (3 seats)? That's all the GOP would need to win a one-seat House majority.

So right now, based on the latest polls, it would not take much for the election to be stolen, maybe 5-10 races. If the Democratic lead widens before election day, and the number of leads beyond the MoE grows, it would mean the GOP would have to steal more elections, maybe 10-20. Then it would become obvious that fraud has occurred once again.

A Monte Carlo Simulation analysis of 1000 trial elections for each of the 31 races was used to determine the probability that the Democrats will win the House (gain a minimum of 15 GOP seats). The simulation was based on the individual probabilities of winning each of the 31 GOP-held seats.

ASSUMING ZERO FRAUD, the probability that the Democrats will win at least
1) 15 seats is 99.6%
2) 16 seats is 97%
3) 17 seats is 83%
4) 18 seats is 54%
5) 19 seats is 25%
6) 20 seats is 7%

Note that the polls and associated probabilities do not factor in spoiled and lost votes (mostly democratic) which occur in EVERY election. This suggests that the net Democratic lead may be 1% LOWER than the polls suggest. On the other hand, the undecided vote (currently 5%) usually splits in favor of the challenger - in this case, the Democrat. So we may have a wash here.

I hope I'm wrong and fraud will not be a factor in this election. I want to see the Dems win big. But we all know what happened in the last three elections, don't we? The motivation to steal it is just as powerful, if not more so, then it was in 2000,2002,2004. BushCo will do ANYTHING NECESSARY TO STAY IN POWER.

The data source for the "House Forecast Update" is:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/12/14357/845
Note that the word FRAUD is not mentioned once in the OP or the 50+ comments. It's as if there is ZERO probability of vote-switching or spoiled, uncounted Democratic votes.

	                                             	      DemWin           
					        DEM	REP	Prob	
Dems win ALL 9 races in which
their lead exceeds the MoE

1	NY-26: Davis (D) Reynolds (R)		56	40	100%
2	OH-15: Kilroy (D) Pryce (R)		53	41	100%	
3	NY-24: Arcuri (D) Mieir (R)		53	42	100%	
4	OH-18: Space (D)  Padgett (R		51	42	100%	
5	PA-07: Sestak (D) Weldon (R)		52	44	100%	
6	NM-01: Madrid (R) Wilson (R)		52	44	100%	
7	NC-11: Shuler (D) Taylor (R)		51	43	100%	
8	NC-08: Kissel (D) Hayes (R)		51	44	100%	
9	PA-06: Murphy (D) Gerlach (R)		52	46	100%	
_______

GOP steals 5 or more of 10 races in which
the Dem lead is within the MoE or TIED

10	MN-06: Wetterling (D) Bachmann (R)	50	45	100%	
11	IN-02: Donnelly (D) Chocola (R)	        50	46	100%	
12	AZ-01: Simon (D) Renzi (R)	        50	46	100%	
13	OH-02: Wulsin (D) Schmidt (R)		48	45	98%	
14	FL-13: Jennings (D) Buchannan (R)       47	44	98%	
15	WI-08: Kagen (D) Gard (R)	        48	46	90%	
16	IA-02: Loebsack (D) Leach (R)		48	47	74%	
17	KY-03: Yarmuth (D) Northup (R)	        48	48	50%	
18	IL-06: Duckworth (D) Roskam (R)	        47	47	50%	
19	CO-07: Perlmutter (D) O'Donell (R)	47	47	50%	

_______

GOP wins ALL 12 races in which they lead

20	MN-01: Gutknecht (R)  Walz (D)		47	48	26%	
21	VA-02: Drake (R)  Kellam (D)	        46	48	10%	
22	NJ-07: Ferguson (R) Stender (D)	        46	48	10%	
23	NY-03: King (R)  Mejas (D)		46	48	10%	
24	WA-08: Reichert (R) Burner (D)	        45	48	2%	
25	KY-04: Davis (R)  Lucas (D)	        46	49	2%	
26	VA-10: Wolf (R)  Feder (D)		42	47	0%	
27	ID-01: Sali (R)  Grant (D)		43	49	0%	
28	CT-05: Johnson (R) Murphy (D)		46	52	0%	
29	CA-04: Doolittle (R) Brown (D)	        44	52	0%	
30	IL-14: Hastert (R) Leasch (D)		42	52	0%	
31	IL-19: Shimkus (R) Stover (D)		36	53	0%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

I think you have figured out the GOP playbook.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

Are just asinine.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me