Want to know the probability of winning a majority vote
for a given a poll vote share and MoE?

We assume a 3rd party vote of 1% (as in the 2004 election).
Therefore, 49.5% is the breakeven (TIE) vote share (50% probability).

In the probability sensitivity analysis chart/table, the probabilities
are computed over a 48-52.5% vote share range with MoEs from 1-3%.

For example:
In the 12:22am National Exit Poll (13047) respondents, Kerry was a 51-48% winner.

Assuming a 1.2% MOE and a 40% "design" or "cluster" effect,
the probability of a Kerry win was 99.3%. That is VERY CONSERVATIVE.
Mitofsky, the Exit Pollster, stated that the MoE was just 1.0%.

But the NEP "How Voted in 2000" 41/39% Bush/Gore weightings are impossible.
Adjusting the weights for the 4-year 3.5% mortality rate and
assuming 95% voter turnout of Bush and Gore 2000 voters,
Kerry was a 52.5-46.5% winner.

The adjusted probability of a Kerry win is 100.0%
Not absolute 100%, but as close to absolute as you can get.

x-axis: polling vote share (for the given MoE)
y-axis: probability curve of winning a majority vote

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.