How many votes were switched from Kerry to Bush?
4.5 million.

Assumptions:
1) The Census estimate that 125.7mm (0.30%MoE) voted in 2004 is correct.
The 2004 total recorded vote was 122.3mm. Assume that the 3.4mm discrepancy is due to spoiled and/or lost ballots.

2) Allocate the 3.4mm lost/spoiled votes to Kerry (2.5mm) and Bush (0.9mm).
In every presidential election, the vast majority of spoiled/lost votes occur
in democratic minority districts.

3) Assume 95% of 2000 Gore and Bush voters turned out to vote in 2004.

4) Adjust the 12:22am National Exit Poll "How Voted in 2000" weights.
The 41% Bush/39% Gore weights are mathematically impossible.
Change to 38.2% Gore/37.8% Bush.

The new weights are a function of:
a) total recorded 2000 vote (Gore 51.0mm-Bush 50.45mm)
b) 0.87%/year mortality rate (3.5% over 4 years)
c) 95% turnout of 2000 Bush and Gore voters.

5) Assume the 12:22am NEP vote shares are correct.

Calculations:
1)Start with the Recorded Vote count:
Bush 62.0mm
Kerry 59.0mm
Other 1.3mm

2) Allocate 3.4mm spoiled/lost votes (2.5mm to Kerry; 0.9mm to Bush):
Bush 62.9mm
Kerry 61.5mm

3) Calculate the Kerry/Bush total vote share (see below):
Kerry 66.0mm (52.5%)
Bush 58.4mm (46.5%)
Other 1.3mm (1.0%)

4) Solve for X, the switched votes:
Kerry: X = 66.0 - 61.5
Bush:-X = 58.4 - 62.9

X = 4.5mm votes were switched from Kerry to Bush.

				Sensitivity analysis: switched votes (mm)
......Votes....				
Recorded	Lost	0	1	2	2.5	3	3.5	4	4.5
____________________________________________________________________
Kerry	59	2.5	61.5	62.5	63.5	64	64.5	65	65.5	66.02
Bush	62	0.9	62.9	61.9	60.9	60.4	59.9	59.4	58.9	58.43
Other	1.3	0	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.25
Total	122.3	3.4	125.7	125.7	125.7	125.7	125.7	125.7	125.7	125.7
-----
Kerry	48.2%	2.0%	48.9%	49.7%	50.5%	50.9%	51.3%	51.7%	52.1%	52.5%
Bush	50.7%	0.7%	50.0%	49.2%	48.4%	48.1%	47.7%	47.3%	46.9%	46.5%
Margin	-3.0	1.6	-1.4	0.6	2.6	3.6	4.6	5.6	6.6	7.59
------------										

NEP (adj. plausible weights, 125.7mm votes)					
Voted in 2000 Demographic							
Turnout:95%						
Voted	Weight Votes	Kerry	Bush	Nader		
No	21.77% 27.36	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%	
Gore	38.24% 48.06	91.0%	8.0%	1.0%	
Bush	37.83% 47.55	10.0%	90.0%	0.0%	
Other	 2.17%  2.72	71.0%	21.0%	8.0%      
-----
Share 100%	125.7	52.5% 46.5% 1.0%					
Vote	100%  125.7	66.0  58.4  1.3					

Kerry margin: 7.59 million						
---------										
										
Sensitivity	of Kerry Vote to Turnout		
Turnout% Kerry% Margin(mm)	
90	   52.76	8.25	
95	   52.52	7.59	
98	   52.38	7.20	
100	   52.29	6.93	
---------										

Actual NEP (impossible weights,122.3mm votes)
Voted	Weight	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other					
No	17%	20.79	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%					
Gore	39%	47.70	91.0%	 8.0%	1.0%					
Bush	41%	50.14	10.0%	90.0%	0.0%					
Other	3%	3.67	71.0%	21.0%	8.0%					
-----										
Share	100%  122.3	51.4% 47.6% 1.0%			
Vote	100%	122.3	62.97	58.2	1.2					

Kerry margin: 4.64 million						

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.p...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

plain-speak way to present this to people which is all the more telling that so many people suspect election fraud as it is.

And yes, there are obvious disinfo ops on DU like these two appear to be.

-Mr Nice Guy