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Avg of pre-election state polls was within 0.5% of the avg 12:22am exit poll


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Original Post: Avg of pre-election state polls was within 0.5% of the avg 12:22am exit poll

TruthIsAll

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Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Wed Sep-13-06 06:51 AM
Original Post

Edited by TruthIsAll on Sun Nov-08-09 05:10 PM

The pre-election state polls matched the exit polls. Here's proof.

Assumption:
60% of Undecided Vote allocated to Kerry				

Calculate:
Kerry's pre-election state poll projections and compare then to the exits
(ignore third party vote shares).		

Key results:
1. There was a 0.37% deviation (assuming 60% undecided to Kerry) between the
average state pre-election poll and the average exit poll.
2. There was a 0.05% deviation (assuming 55% undecided to Kerry) between the
average state pre-election poll and the average exit poll.
3. In 39 states, one individual led both the pre-election and exit poll.
4. In 15 of 17 battleground states, one individual led in both polls.
5. In 15 states, pre-election vote shares differed from the corresponding exit
poll vote shares by less than 1%; in 29 states, by less than 2%; in 32 states,
by less than 3%; in 42 states, by less than 4%.

KEY QUESTION: Since those who do not believe the exit polls claim that the
exits were biased for Kerry, does the close match between the state
pre-election and exit polls imply that the pre-election polls had to be biased
for Kerry also? 

Table Column headings:
KPoll: Kerry pre-election poll
Kproj: Kerry pre-election poll+undecided allocation
Kexit: Kerry Exit poll
Kact:  Kerry Actual vote

KpDev: Kproj-Kact 
KeDev: Kexit-Kact
NetDev:KeDev-KpDEv

Sensitivity of net average deviation to pre-election Kerry
undecided allocation							

Undec %  50	  55	 60	67	75		
NetDev% 0.26     -0.05  -0.37  -0.81   -1.31		

WEIGHTED by individual state votes/total votes: 
Kerry's pre-election projection is 50.37%.
His 2-party exit poll is 50.51%.

Kerry's UNWEIGHTED projections and poll numbers are shown
in the following table. 

.	Kpoll	Kproj	Kexit	Kact	KpDev	KeDev	NetDev
Avg    48.5	49.2	48.8	47.1	2.12	1.75	-0.37
Median 49.5	50.0	49.1	47.5	2.01	1.83	-0.32

AL	40.6	41.4	41.1	37.1	4.30	3.98	-0.32
AK	34.5	37.8	40.1	36.8	1.03	3.37	2.34
AR	47.4	48.0	46.6	45.1	2.93	1.53	-1.40
AZ	48.9	49.6	46.9	44.7	4.88	2.21	-2.67
CA	53.8	54.4	55.7	55.0	-0.64	0.69	1.33
							
CO	49.5	50.0	49.1	47.6	2.37	1.44	-0.93
CT	55.3	55.6	58.5	55.3	0.33	3.20	2.87
DE	54.2	55.2	58.4	53.8	1.37	4.61	3.24
DC	87.6	84.6	91.6	90.5	-5.92	1.11	7.03
FL	50.0	50.6	49.9	47.5	3.12	2.45	-0.67
							
GA	44.7	45.6	43.1	41.6	3.95	1.46	-2.49
HI	50.0	51.0	53.3	54.4	-3.40	-1.08	2.32
ID	33.7	36.6	33.3	30.7	5.92	2.66	-3.27
IL	56.3	56.4	57.1	55.2	1.19	1.93	0.73
IN	40.2	40.8	41.0	39.6	1.22	1.39	0.17
							
IA	53.2	53.6	50.7	49.7	3.94	1.01	-2.93
KS	38.1	38.8	34.6	37.1	1.67	-2.53	-4.20
KY	41.1	42.0	40.8	40.0	2.01	0.76	-1.24
LA	45.5	47.2	44.5	42.7	4.53	1.83	-2.70
ME	56.2	56.6	54.8	54.6	2.02	0.25	-1.77
							
MD	55.7	55.8	57.0	56.6	-0.77	0.47	1.24
MA	70.3	69.4	66.5	62.7	6.66	3.72	-2.94
MI	53.6	53.8	52.6	51.7	2.07	0.83	-1.25
MN	54.2	54.4	54.6	51.8	2.64	2.85	0.21
MS	45.2	46.2	43.2	40.5	5.71	2.71	-3.00
							
MO	47.3	48.2	47.5	46.4	1.82	1.09	-0.73
MT	38.7	40.2	39.3	39.5	0.70	-0.22	-0.92
NE	34.4	36.2	36.5	33.2	3.05	3.39	0.34
NV	50.0	50.2	50.7	48.7	1.52	1.98	0.46
NH	50.0	50.6	55.5	50.7	-0.09	4.80	4.89
							
NJ	54.3	54.8	56.1	53.4	1.43	2.76	1.33
NM	50.0	50.2	51.3	49.6	0.60	1.74	1.14
NY	59.4	59.4	64.0	59.3	0.11	4.68	4.57
NC	48.5	48.8	47.3	43.8	5.04	3.55	-1.49
ND	38.9	41.0	33.6	36.1	4.91	-2.51	-7.42
							
OH	51.5	51.8	52.1	48.9	2.86	3.12	0.26
OK	31.5	34.6	34.7	34.4	0.17	0.30	0.13
OR	53.2	53.6	51.2	52.1	1.49	-0.89	-2.38
PA	52.6	53.0	54.4	51.3	1.74	3.15	1.41
RI	60.9	60.8	64.2	60.6	0.22	3.66	3.44
							
SC	43.3	43.8	45.8	41.4	2.44	4.42	1.98
SD	44.7	45.6	37.4	39.1	6.51	-1.67	-8.18
TN	48.5	48.8	41.2	42.8	5.99	-1.66	-7.65
TX	38.5	39.4	36.8	38.5	0.91	-1.65	-2.56
UT	25.8	28.2	29.9	26.7	1.55	3.28	1.73
							
VT	57.0	57.2	65.7	60.3	-3.10	5.39	8.49
VA	48.0	48.2	48.0	45.9	2.33	2.09	-0.24
WA	54.2	54.4	55.1	53.6	0.75	1.42	0.67
WV	47.9	48.6	45.2	43.5	5.08	1.67	-3.41
WI	53.7	54.0	50.2	50.2	3.81	0.02	-3.79
WY	30.9	32.6	32.1	29.7	2.91	2.38	-0.53
______________________________________________							
In 39 states, there is one winner of the projection and exit poll
15 of 17 battleground states there is one winner				

avg	2.12	1.75	-0.37	
.	KpDev	KeDev	Diff	One winner?
VT	-3.1	5.4	8.5	
DC	-5.9	1.1	7.0	
NH*	-0.1	4.8	4.9	
NY	0.1	4.7	4.6	yes
RI	0.2	3.7	3.4	yes

DE	1.4	4.6	3.2	yes
CT	0.3	3.2	2.9	yes
AK	1.0	3.4	2.3	yes
HI	-3.4	-1.1	2.3	yes
SC	2.4	4.4	2.0	yes

UT	1.5	3.3	1.7	yes
PA*	1.7	3.2	1.4	yes
CA	-0.6	0.7	1.3	
NJ	1.4	2.8	1.3	yes
MD	-0.8	0.5	1.2	

NM*	0.6	1.7	1.1	yes
IL	1.2	1.9	0.7	yes
WA*	0.8	1.4	0.7	yes
NV*	1.5	2.0	0.5	yes
NE	3.0	3.4	0.3	yes

OH*	2.9	3.1	0.3	yes
MN*	2.6	2.9	0.2	yes
IN	1.2	1.4	0.2	yes
OK	0.2	0.3	0.1	yes
VA*	2.3	2.1	-0.2	yes

AL	4.3	4.0	-0.3	yes
WY	2.9	2.4	-0.5	yes
FL*	3.1	2.5	-0.7	yes
MO*	1.8	1.1	-0.7	yes
MT	0.7	-0.2	-0.9	

CO*	2.4	1.4	-0.9	yes
KY	2.0	0.8	-1.2	yes
MI*	2.1	0.8	-1.2	yes
AR	2.9	1.5	-1.4	yes
NC*	5.0	3.6	-1.5	yes

ME	2.0	0.3	-1.8	yes
OR*	1.5	-0.9	-2.4	
GA	4.0	1.5	-2.5	yes
TX	0.9	-1.7	-2.6	
AZ	4.9	2.2	-2.7	yes

LA	4.5	1.8	-2.7	yes
IA*	3.9	1.0	-2.9	yes
MA	6.7	3.7	-2.9	yes
MS	5.7	2.7	-3.0	yes
ID	5.9	2.7	-3.3	yes

WV	5.1	1.7	-3.4	yes
WI*	3.8	0.0	-3.8	yes
KS	1.7	-2.5	-4.2	
ND	4.9	-2.5	-7.4	
TN	6.0	-1.7	-7.6	
SD	6.5	-1.7	-8.2

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...

These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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2 replies to this thread:

Avg of pre-election state polls was within 0.5% of the avg 12:22am exit poll ,

TruthIsAll, Wed Sep-13-06 06:51 AM

#1: THE GRAPHS,

TruthIsAll, Sep 13th 2006

#2: Monte Carlo simulation: pre-elects matched exit polls within 0.24%,

TruthIsAll, Sep 14th 2006

Reply #1: THE GRAPHS

TruthIsAll

Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Wed Sep-13-06 06:53 AM
In response to Original Post

Edited by TruthIsAll on Wed Sep-13-06 06:53 AM

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Reply #2: Monte Carlo simulation: pre-elects matched exit polls within 0.24%

TruthIsAll

Member since Sep 14th 2005

1399 posts

Thu Sep-14-06 07:07 AM
In response to Original Post

Edited by TruthIsAll on Thu Sep-14-06 07:09 AM

														
MONTE CARLO STATE SIMULATION
PRE-ELECTION AND EXIT POLLS

Undecided to Kerry:67.0%
Electoral Vote Win Prob:96.5%
				
Kerry Electoral Vote
303	Mean									
306	Median
350	Maximum
255	Minimum


													
�		Pre	Exit 	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Kerry	Kerry	     >MoE     Diff	
�	�	MoE	MoE	Pre	Pre	Exit 	Exit	PreSim	ExitSim	Final	Pre	Exit	Pre	Exit
�	�	0.60	0.44	47.50	47.02	50.06	49.03	50.69	50.93	48.32	15	16	(2.38)	(2.62)
	
AL	9	3.89	4.28	39.00	57.00	40.48	58.06	41.52	40.17	36.86	AL		(4.66)	(3.30)
AK	3	3.76	3.82	30.00	57.00	38.76	57.80	40.43	40.53	35.61	AK	AK	(4.83)	(4.92)
AR	6	3.95	2.72	45.00	50.00	46.13	52.87	44.51	44.43	44.40			(0.11)	(0.03)
AZ	10	3.96	3.13	46.00	48.00	46.71	52.82	47.02	47.11	44.55			(2.47)	(2.56)
CA	55	3.95	2.67	49.00	42.00	54.64	43.40	56.51	56.53	54.43			(2.08)	(2.10)
														
CO	9	3.96	2.34	47.00	48.00	48.12	49.94	47.82	47.75	47.08			(0.74)	(0.67)
CT	7	3.94	3.92	52.00	42.00	57.65	40.94	60.21	60.12	54.31	CT	CT	(5.90)	(5.81)
DE	3	3.95	4.18	45.00	38.00	57.27	40.73	58.49	58.36	53.36	DE	DE	(5.13)	(5.00)
DC	3	2.61	2.31	78.00	11.00	89.80	8.20	91.07	91.10	89.43			(1.64)	(1.67)
FL	27	3.96	2.20	47.00	47.00	49.70	49.84	50.65	50.65	47.13		FL	(3.52)	(3.52)
														
GA	15	3.94	2.97	42.00	52.00	42.92	56.64	43.19	43.11	41.41			(1.77)	(1.70)
HI	4	3.96	5.25	45.00	45.00	53.32	46.68	51.74	50.73	54.01			2.27 	3.28 
ID	4	3.74	4.69	30.00	59.00	32.85	65.70	35.19	32.61	30.26	ID		(4.93)	(2.35)
IL	21	3.93	3.12	54.00	42.00	56.56	42.44	57.04	56.38	54.82			(2.22)	(1.56)
IN	11	3.88	3.80	39.00	58.00	40.56	58.44	39.36	36.78	39.26			(0.10)	2.48 
														
IA	7	3.95	2.35	50.00	44.00	49.70	48.38	51.20	51.22	49.29			(1.92)	(1.94)
KS	6	3.85	4.38	37.00	60.00	34.10	64.45	36.62	34.99	36.62			0.01 	1.63 
KY	8	3.90	3.59	39.00	56.00	40.16	58.38	37.95	39.23	39.69			1.74 	0.46 
LA	9	3.94	2.86	40.00	48.00	43.85	54.70	46.68	44.02	42.31	LA		(4.37)	(1.71)
ME	4	3.93	2.64	50.00	39.00	53.77	44.29	54.87	52.90	53.57			(1.30)	0.68 
														
MD	10	3.93	3.68	54.00	43.00	56.16	42.30	57.00	57.03	55.97			(1.03)	(1.06)
MA	12	3.62	3.72	64.00	27.00	65.16	32.88	71.27	65.48	62.09	MA		(9.19)	(3.40)
MI	17	3.95	2.37	52.00	45.00	51.50	46.50	52.70	50.05	51.25			(1.45)	1.19 
MN	10	3.95	2.51	52.00	44.00	53.52	44.48	54.90	55.57	51.20		MN	(3.70)	(4.38)
MS	6	3.94	4.12	42.00	51.00	43.00	56.53	46.67	44.53	40.22	MS	MS	(6.45)	(4.32)
														
MO	11	3.95	2.53	44.00	49.00	47.00	52.00	47.36	47.37	46.10			(1.26)	(1.27)
MT	3	3.86	4.54	36.00	57.00	37.51	57.98	39.71	39.63	38.57			(1.14)	(1.07)
NE	5	3.76	4.04	32.00	61.00	36.00	62.52	35.41	34.27	32.72			(2.69)	(1.55)
NV	5	3.96	2.56	49.00	49.00	49.16	47.88	47.65	50.28	48.09			0.45 	(2.19)
NH	4	3.96	2.72	47.00	47.00	54.94	44.06	44.90	54.46	50.35	NH	NH	5.46 	(4.10)
														
NJ	15	3.94	2.99	50.00	42.00	54.70	42.76	54.69	54.74	52.95			(1.74)	(1.79)
NM	5	3.96	2.66	49.00	49.00	50.08	47.46	49.73	49.70	49.05			(0.68)	(0.65)
NY	31	3.89	2.96	57.00	39.00	62.75	35.35	61.88	63.79	58.39		NY	(3.49)	(5.40)
NC	15	3.96	2.52	47.00	50.00	46.64	51.94	47.46	47.66	43.59		NC	(3.88)	(4.08)
ND	3	3.86	4.36	35.00	55.00	32.57	64.43	38.66	34.33	35.50			(3.16)	1.17 
														
OH	20	3.96	2.65	50.00	47.00	52.06	47.94	51.88	52.96	48.71		OH	(3.17)	(4.25)
OK	7	3.68	2.85	28.00	61.00	34.56	64.96	37.58	32.61	34.43			(3.16)	1.82 
OR	7	3.95	3.60	50.00	44.00	50.25	47.85	52.92	50.51	51.60			(1.32)	1.09 
PA	21	3.95	2.67	50.00	45.00	54.12	45.35	56.31	54.47	50.96	PA	PA	(5.35)	(3.51)
RI	4	3.87	3.96	56.00	36.00	62.65	34.88	59.81	65.86	59.57		RI	(0.24)	(6.29)
														
SC	8	3.92	2.81	42.00	55.00	45.13	53.44	45.01	45.13	40.96	SC	SC	(4.05)	(4.17)
SD	3	3.94	2.94	42.00	52.00	36.47	61.00	46.34	35.61	38.44	SD		(7.89)	2.84 
TN	11	3.96	2.75	47.00	50.00	40.56	58.00	46.77	40.12	42.53	TN		(4.25)	2.41 
TX	34	3.85	2.78	37.00	59.00	36.30	62.24	39.19	37.40	38.23			(0.96)	0.83 
UT	5	3.47	3.81	24.00	69.00	29.08	68.08	26.62	29.43	26.03			(0.59)	(3.40)
														
VT	3	3.92	4.27	53.00	40.00	63.65	33.25	56.74	64.52	59.22		VT	2.48 	(5.31)
VA	13	3.96	3.11	47.00	51.00	47.00	51.00	46.71	47.67	45.56			(1.15)	(2.11)
WA	11	3.95	2.54	52.00	44.00	53.48	43.64	52.83	55.99	52.86		WA	0.03 	(3.13)
WV	5	3.96	2.82	45.00	49.00	44.53	54.00	46.38	46.67	43.20		WV	(3.18)	(3.47)
WI	10	3.95	2.49	51.00	44.00	49.24	48.82	55.40	49.88	49.76	WI		(5.64)	(0.12)
WY	3	3.66	4.20	29.00	65.00	30.94	65.53	33.13	29.86	29.13	WY		(4.00)	(0.72)

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