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Exit poll non-responders: the income factor means it's rKr, not rBr...
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Original Post: Exit poll non-responders: the income factor means it's rKr, not rBr...
TruthIsAll Moderator Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
1399 posts
Sun Aug-13-06 06:59 AM
Original Post
 
 
Edited by TruthIsAll on Tue Aug-15-06 04:03 AM

Well, Febble and OTOH, you were both partially correct. There is non-response
bias. Kerry non-responders outnumbered Bush non-responders, just like Kerry
responders outnumbered Bush responders.

I sure missed you guys. Mention this post to Manjoo next time you speak to him.
Did he try the Interactive Election Model yet?

------------------------------------------------------------
From Statistics for Business and Economics: 
Heinz Kohler 
Second Edition

Chapter 2: Surveys and Experiments.

“Faulty questionnaire design, can, finally, be responsible for NONRESPONSE
BIAS, a systematic tendency for selected elementary units with particular
characteristics not to contribute data in a survey while other such units, with
other characteristics, do. In the presence of this problem, even a census based
on a perfect frame, or perfectly selected random sample, will fail. They will
yield faulty conclusions because the data actually collected will in fact
constitute a convenience sample (for example, of the MOST STRONGLY OPINIONATED
PEOPLE among all the people that were supposed to be in the survey).
Questionnaire features that contribute to non-response bias include a
physically unattractive design; hard-to-read-print; questions that are boring,
unclear, or long and involved; an excessive number of questions; bad sequencing
of questions (so that respondents are forced to jump back and forth from topic
to topic), and, in the case of multiple-choice questions, the specification of
answers that are not mutually exclusive or are excessively restricted to
particular points of view, while omitting other possible views. Experience
shows that HIGH-INCOME people and LOW-INCOME people (unlike MIDDLE-INCOME
PEOPLE) tend NOT to respond to surveys; it is easy to see how the exclusion of
either group is apt to bias survey results.”

Strongly-opinionated people are people like the Republicans who rioted and
terminated the Dade County Recount in 2000.

Assuming a differential response based on income, Kerry did better than the
exit polls suggested.

Look at the income demographic of the National Exit poll. Low-income
voters(under $50,000) comprise 46% of the voting mix; high-income (over
$100,000) comprise 18%. Also note that Kerry voters are the vast majority (57%)
of the low-income group, while Bush voters comprise 54% of the high income
group.

Applying bias increments (1,2,3%) for low and high income non-responders,
Kerry's vote share increases from 51.39% to 51.67% (340,000 votes), while the
Bush total is reduced by the same number. 
So Kerry's winning margin increases by 680,000 votes. 
___________________________________________________

	53.28%	Responders			
	No Bias				
	INCOME				

	Low	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Other
	0-15K	9%	34%	65%	1%
	15-30	15%	38%	60%	1%
	30-50	22%	46%	53%	1%
	Total	46%	18.88%	26.51%	0.46%

	Middle				
	50-75	23%	53%	46%	1%
	75-100	13%	51%	48%	0%
	Total	36%	18.82%	16.82%	0.23%

	High				
	100-150	11%	53%	45%	2%
	150-200	4%	53%	47%	0%
	200+	3%	58%	41%	1%
	Total	18%	9.69%	8.06%	0.03%
					
	Grand	100%	47.39%	51.39%	0.72%
      Total	121.8	57.9	62.8	1.1
	(mm votes)			
					

	46.72%	Non-Responders			
	Bias				
	INCOME				

Bias	Low	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Other
3%	0-15K	12%	34%	65%	1%
2%	15-30	17%	38%	60%	1%
1%	30-50	23%	46%	53%	1%
	Total	52%	21.12%	30.19%	0.52%

	Middle				
0%	50-75	20%	53%	46%	1%
0%	75-100	4%	51%	48%	0%
	Total	24%	12.64%	11.12%	0.20%

	High				
1%	100-150	12%	53%	45%	2%
2%	150-200	6%	53%	47%	0%
3%	200+	6%	58%	41%	1%
	Total	24%	13.02%	10.68%	0.30%
					
	Grand	100%	46.78%	51.99%	1.02%
	Total	121.8	57.3	63.3	1.2				
      (mm votes)

	Total Non-responders + Responders 				
			Bush	Kerry	Other
	Respon	53.28%	47.39%	51.39%	0.72%
	Nonresp 46.72%	46.78%	51.99%	1.02%

	Grand	100%	47.11%	51.67%	0.86%
      Total	121.8	57.6	63.1	1.1
	(mm votes)		
_______________________________________________________
The following table is depicted in the linear regression graph (post#2).
It provides further confirmation that rBr should really be rKr. As the Kerry
vote increases going from High Bush to High Kerry states, the corresponding
state exit poll response rates decrease, contrary to the rBr hypothesis that
non-responders favored Bush.

	Compl	2pty	ZS:Vote	Vote	Poll	Poll	Std	2pty	Vote	Odds
St	Rate	Kvote	/StDev	Size	Sample	MoE	Dev	KPoll	%Dev	1 in
UT	59.6	26.7	2.02	905	798	3.18%	1.62%	29.9	-3.28	46
WY	66.0	29.7	1.34	238	684	3.50%	1.78%	32.1	-2.38	11
ID	63.2	30.7	1.33	590	559	3.91%	1.99%	33.3	-2.66	11
NE	66.5	33.2	1.97	767	785	3.37%	1.72%	36.5	-3.39	41
OK	53.2	34.4	0.25	1,464	1539	2.38%	1.21%	34.7	-0.30	2

ND	63.0	36.1	-1.36	308	649	3.63%	1.85%	33.6	2.51	1
AK	53.2	36.8	2.07	302	910	3.18%	1.62%	40.1	-3.37	52
AL	58.3	37.1	2.18	1,870	730	3.57%	1.82%	41.1	-3.98	69
KS	64.5	37.1	-1.36	1,171	654	3.65%	1.86%	34.6	2.53	1
TX	58.3	38.5	-1.40	7,360	1671	2.31%	1.18%	36.8	1.65	1

SD	42.7	39.1	-1.33	382	1495	2.45%	1.25%	37.4	1.67	1
MT	63.0	39.5	-0.11	440	640	3.78%	1.93%	39.3	0.22	2
IN	38.6	39.6	0.86	2,448	926	3.17%	1.62%	41.0	-1.39	5
KY	52.6	40.0	0.50	1,782	1034	3.00%	1.53%	40.8	-0.76	3
MS	49.6	40.5	1.54	1,130	798	3.44%	1.75%	43.2	-2.71	16

SC	59.4	41.4	3.70	1,600	1735	2.34%	1.20%	45.8	-4.42	9115
GA	63.9	41.6	1.16	3,280	1536	2.48%	1.26%	43.1	-1.46	8
LA	47.8	42.7	1.50	1,922	1669	2.38%	1.22%	44.5	-1.83	15
TN	66.7	42.8	-1.42	2,421	1774	2.29%	1.17%	41.2	1.66	1
WV	48.7	43.5	1.40	750	1722	2.35%	1.20%	45.2	-1.67	12

NC	52.6	43.8	3.31	3,487	2167	2.10%	1.07%	47.3	-3.55	2171
AZ	57.3	44.7	1.62	1,998	1859	2.27%	1.16%	46.6	-1.87	19
AR	60.2	45.1	1.40	1,043	1402	2.61%	1.33%	46.9	-1.86	12
VA	56.4	45.9	1.58	3,172	1431	2.59%	1.32%	48.0	-2.09	18
MO	47.0	46.4	1.02	2,715	2158	2.11%	1.07%	47.5	-1.09	6

FL	49.0	47.5	2.62	7,548	2846	1.84%	0.94%	49.9	-2.45	226
CO	55.5	47.6	1.44	2,103	2515	1.95%	1.00%	49.1	-1.44	13
NV	49.1	48.7	1.82	816	2116	2.13%	1.09%	50.7	-1.98	29
OH	44.1	48.9	2.77	5,599	1963	2.21%	1.13%	52.1	-3.12	354
NM	56.9	49.6	1.54	748	1951	2.22%	1.13%	51.3	-1.74	16

IA	52.6	49.7	1.01	1,494	2502	1.96%	1.00%	50.7	-1.01	6
WI	55.3	50.2	0.02	2,968	2223	2.08%	1.06%	50.2	-0.02	2
NH	44.0	50.7	4.16	672	1849	2.27%	1.16%	55.5	-4.80	62051
PA	46.8	51.3	2.78	5,732	1930	2.22%	1.13%	54.4	-3.15	366
MI	50.2	51.7	0.82	4,793	2452	1.98%	1.01%	52.6	-0.83	5

MN	45.3	51.8	2.67	2,792	2178	2.09%	1.07%	54.6	-2.85	266
OR	53.0	52.1	-0.58	1,810	1064	3.00%	1.53%	51.2	0.89	1
NJ	59.7	53.4	2.16	3,581	1520	2.49%	1.27%	56.1	-2.76	66
WA	53.8	53.6	1.31	2,815	2123	2.12%	1.08%	55.1	-1.42	11
DE	57.5	53.8	2.59	372	770	3.48%	1.78%	58.4	-4.61	211

HI	53.4	54.4	-0.49	426	499	4.38%	2.23%	53.3	1.08	1
ME	61.3	54.6	0.22	727	1968	2.20%	1.12%	54.8	-0.25	2
CA	50.5	55.0	0.61	12,255	1919	2.22%	1.13%	55.7	-0.69	4
IL	51.9	55.2	1.45	5,239	1392	2.60%	1.33%	57.1	-1.93	14
CT	51.0	55.3	1.92	1,551	872	3.27%	1.67%	58.5	-3.20	36

MD	59.4	56.6	0.30	2,359	1000	3.07%	1.57%	57.0	-0.47	3
NY	57.9	59.3	3.71	7,277	1452	2.47%	1.26%	64.0	-4.68	9734
VT	53.1	60.3	2.97	305	685	3.56%	1.81%	65.7	-5.38	669
RI	44.2	60.6	2.17	429	809	3.30%	1.69%	64.2	-3.66	67
MA	56.5	62.7	2.35	2,875	889	3.10%	1.58%	66.5	-3.72	106

DC	53.5	90.5	1.13	224	795	1.92%	0.98%	91.6	-1.11	8

	Compl	2pty	ZS:Vote	Vote	Poll	Poll	Std	2pty	Vote	Odds
St	Rate	Kvote	/StDev	Size	Sample	MoE	Dev	KPoll	%Dev	1 in

Total	53.28	48.76	1.32	121,056	73,607	0.48%	0.24%	50.51%	-1.75	2.1bil

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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3 replies to this thread:
Exit poll non-responders: the income factor means it's rKr, not rBr... , TruthIsAll, Sun Aug-13-06 06:59 AM
#1: Not knowing anything about statistics, davidgmills, Aug 13th 2006
#2: The Graph: Kerry State Poll & Vote Vs Exit Poll Completion Rate, TruthIsAll, Aug 13th 2006
#3: Compare Kerry's 51.67% in OP to Exit Poll Response Optimizer: 51.63%, TruthIsAll, Aug 19th 2006

Reply #1: Not knowing anything about statistics
davidgmills deactivated Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 15th 2005
2668 posts
Sun Aug-13-06 10:16 AM
In response to Original Post

 
 

I told Liddle the same damn thing because it is simply intuitive.  Rich won't be
bothered and the poor will be initimdated.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

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Reply #2: The Graph: Kerry State Poll & Vote Vs Exit Poll Completion Rate
TruthIsAll Moderator Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
1399 posts
Sun Aug-13-06 03:10 PM
In response to Original Post

 
 
Edited by TruthIsAll on Sat Aug-19-06 05:52 PM

As completion rates decline, Kerry's poll and vote shares increase.
Therefore, we can conclude that non-responders were mostly Kerry voters, confirming the OP: low-income Kerry non-responders outnumbered high-income Bush non-responders.

Since there was a BUSH BIAS in the state exit polls, Kerry must have done significantly better than his 50.51% poll numbers.

IMPORTANT NOTE: As completion rates decline, the discrepancy between Kerry's exit poll and recorded vote widens, a further confirmation that non-responders were mostly Kerry voters. Ballots were spoiled or stolen in big states Kerry won easily (PA, NY, MA, NJ, CT, CA) or barely lost (FL, Ohio, NM, NV, CO, IA).

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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Reply #3: Compare Kerry's 51.67% in OP to Exit Poll Response Optimizer: 51.63%
TruthIsAll Moderator Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
1399 posts
Sat Aug-19-06 05:42 PM
In response to Original Post

 
 
Edited by TruthIsAll on Sat Aug-19-06 05:47 PM

	EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER					
						
Given: 						
1- Bush 2-party vote (51.24%)						
2- Partisanship category exit poll response						
3- Partisanship category "Within Precinct Error" (WPE)						
						
Determine:						
1) Kerry exit poll vote share aggregate and by partisanship category
2) K/B (alpha) - aggregate and by partisanship category		
						
Kerry won: 
1)52.15% of the 2-party exit poll, 3.39% higher than his recorded 48.76%
2)51.63% of the total vote, 3.35% higher than his recorded 48.28%
3)63.127mm votes, 4.10 higher (6.50%) than his recorded vote						
Bush won:						
57.929 mm votes, 4.10 less (7.08%) than his recorded vote.	

KeyResults:
1) Of the total 4.10mm red-shift, 3.45mm was in competitive and moderate Bush
precincts.
2) Min. aggregate alpha (k/b) is 1.155. The AAPOR 1.12 alpha is NOT feasible.
3) Average Alpha is 1.062 in Kerry precincts; and 1.185 in Bush/non-partisan.
4) Alpha increases from High Kerry (1.0) to High Bush (1.50) precincts.	
5) Positive correlation between vote discrepancy and Bush partisanship.	
6) Bush needed 55.13% of refusers to achieve his recorded 2-party vote
(51.24%), compared to 47.85% of responders.
7) The probability of a 3.39% discrepancy between the exit poll and the vote is
1 in 63 billion.						

2004	2-PTY	2-PTY	TOTAL			
VOTE	PCT	VOTE	COUNT			
Kerry 	48.76%	59.027	48.28%			
Bush	51.24%	62.029	50.73%			
Total	100%	121.056	122.267			

EXIT POLL						
Kerry 	52.15%	63.127	51.63%			
Diff	-3.39%	-4.10	-3.35%			
Diff/K	-6.50%	-6.50%	-6.50%			

Bush	47.85%	57.929	47.38%			
Diff	3.39%	4.10	3.35%			
Diff/B	7.08%	7.08%	7.08%			
						
PROBABILITY of 3.39% discrepancy between exit poll and vote: 1.59E-11
or  1 in	62,953,509,332		
						
ALPHA						
Kerry strongholds:1.062					
All Other:	1.185					

WEIGHTED AVERAGE (AGGREGATE)						
Response (R):53.59%					
K/B  (alpha):1.155					

EXIT POLL REFUSERS REQUIRED FOR RECORDED VOTE
Kerry:44.87%					
Bush: 55.13%					
						
PARTISANSHIP RANGE CONSTRAINTS						
Prct	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry	
1250	40	415	540	165	90	
						
KERRY WIN%						
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%	
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%	
						
RESPONSE						
Min	56%	55%	52%	55%	53%	
Max	56%	55%	52%	55%	53%	
						
E-M	56%	55%	52%	55%	53%	
						
ALPHA (K/B)						
Min	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	
Max	9.00	9.00	9.00	9.00	9.00	
						
WPE						
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
						
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
						
						
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY						
						
	Poll	Count	PctDiff	Poll	Count	Diff (mm)
Kerry	52.15%	48.76%	-3.39%	63.127	59.027	-4.100
Bush	47.85%	51.24%	3.39%	57.929	62.029	4.100
Diff	4.29%	-2.48%	-6.77%	5.199	-3.002	-8.201
						
Precincts	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	Total
	40	415	540	165	90	1250
Votes	3.87	40.19	52.30	15.98	8.72	121.056
Pct	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%	100.0%
						
RESP.	56.0%	55.0%	52.0%	55.0%	53.0%	53.59%
DevAvg	2.4%	1.4%	-1.6%	1.4%	-0.6%	0.0%
						
ALPHA						
K/B	1.500	1.154	1.174	1.098	0.996	1.155
K/ 50B	75.0	57.7	58.7	54.9	49.8	57.8
DevAvg	29.9%	0.0%	1.6%	-4.9%	-13.7%	0.0%
						
VOTE						
Kerry	0.77	15.87	25.61	9.59	7.19	59.027
Pct	20.0%	39.5%	49.0%	60.0%	82.5%	48.76%
						
Bush	3.10	24.32	26.69	6.39	1.53	62.029
Pct	80.0%	60.5%	51.0%	40.0%	17.5%	51.24%
						
RESPONDERS						
Kerry	0.97	17.10	27.83	10.06	7.18	63.127
Pct	25.0%	42.5%	53.2%	63.0%	82.3%	52.15%
						
Bush	2.91	23.09	24.47	5.92	1.54	57.929
Pct	75.0%	57.5%	46.8%	37.1%	17.7%	47.85%
						
REFUSERS						
Kerry	13.6%	35.8%	44.4%	56.4%	82.6%	44.87%
Bush	86.4%	64.2%	55.6%	43.6%	17.4%	55.13%
						
VOTE DEVIATION						
Kerry	-0.19	-1.23	-2.22	-0.47	0.01	-4.10
Pct	-20.0%	-7.2%	-8.0%	-4.7%	0.2%	-6.50%
						
WPE						
Calc	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.77%
Diff	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
						
						
OPTIMIZATION MODEL						
						
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90	1250
Kerry	20.00%	39.49%	48.96%	60.00%	82.47%	48.76%
						
ALPHA	1.50	1.15	1.17	1.10	1.00	1.155
ln(a)	0.41	0.14	0.16	0.09	0.00	0.14
AvgDev	30%	0%	2%	-5%	-14%	0%
Kerry /50 Bush	75.0	57.7	58.7	54.9	49.8	57.8
						
RESPONDERS						
Pct	56.0%	55.0%	52.0%	55.0%	53.0%	53.59%
						
Kerry	5.60	97.10	149.42	57.13	39.27	348.51
Pct	25.0%	42.5%	53.2%	63.0%	82.3%	52.15%
Bush	16.80	131.15	131.38	33.62	8.43	321.39
Pct	75.0%	57.5%	46.8%	37.1%	17.7%	47.85%
						
REFUSERS						
Total	17.60	186.75	259.20	74.25	42.30	580.10
Pct	44.0%	45.0%	48.0%	45.0%	47.0%	46.41%
						
Kerry	2.40	66.78	114.98	41.87	34.96	260.99
Pct	13.6%	35.8%	44.4%	56.4%	82.6%	44.87%
Bush	15.20	119.97	144.22	32.38	7.34	319.11
Pct	86.4%	64.2%	55.6%	43.6%	17.4%	55.13%
						
						
TOTAL VOTES						
Kerry	8.00	163.88	264.39	99.00	74.23	609.50
Pct	20.0%	39.5%	49.0%	60.0%	82.5%	48.76%
Bush	32.00	251.12	275.61	66.00	15.77	640.50
Pct	80.0%	60.5%	51.0%	40.0%	17.5%	51.24%
Kerry Dev	-5.0%	-3.0%	-4.2%	-3.0%	0.2%	-3.4%
						
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)						
TOTAL	3.87	40.19	52.30	15.98	8.72	121.056
						
Kerry 	0.77	15.87	25.61	9.59	7.19	59.027
Bush	3.10	24.32	26.69	6.39	1.53	62.029
Diff	-2.32	-8.45	-1.09	3.20	5.66	-3.002
						
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)						
Kerry 	0.97	17.10	27.83	10.06	7.18	63.127
Bush	2.91	23.09	24.47	5.92	1.54	57.929
Diff	-1.94	-6.00	3.36	4.14	5.63	5.199
						
VOTE DEVIATION						
Kerry 	-0.19	-1.23	-2.22	-0.47	0.01	-4.100
Pct	-20.0%	-7.2%	-8.0%	-4.7%	0.2%	-6.50%
WPE						
Kv-Bv	-60.0%	-21.0%	-2.1%	20.0%	64.9%	-2.48%
Kp-Bp	-50.0%	-14.9%	6.4%	25.9%	64.6%	4.29%
Diff	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.77%
						
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.77%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

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