Dear Farhad,
In your "No Exit" piece (6/15/2005) you linked to a summary of my DU posts.
http://dir.salon.com/story/news/feature/2005/06/15...

Here's a more complete, up-to-date, compilation of my pre-election forecast of Kerry's 2-party vote using state (51.80%) and national (51.62%) polling models. Also included are 100+ pre-election and exit poll analytic posts. If you read the replies, you'll see that the unrelenting wave of naysayers and trolls were systematically debunked.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllP...

I should have responded to "No Exit" a year ago. But since you have continued your crusade against "fraudsters" with your thrashing of RFK's Rolling Stone article, now it's my turn. The pathetic rebuttal to RFK came exactly one year after "No Exit". in which you claim that "expert" sources debunked USCV and the "fraudsters". Quite the contrary; they're down to their last-ditch hypothesis ("false recall"). They are still trying to spread the fiction that the pre-election and early exit polls were wrong; that Bush won the popular vote by a 3 million "mandate". In so doing, they imply that the FINAL National Exit and state exit polls, which were matched to the "recorded" vote, are correct. Based on the mathematical proof below, you will see why the FINAL NEP is IMPOSSIBLE and OVERSTATES the Bush vote by AT LEAST 4 MILLION.

THE MARGIN OF ERROR
You make the fallacious statement that there is no real significance to the 3% deviation from Kerry winning by 51-48% in the National Exit poll to the Bush recorded 51-48% win. That statement alone exposed your lack of understanding of the "margin of error" and mathematical probability. The 1.1% MoE (assuming a 30% cluster effect; 13,047 respondents) means that the 3% deviation is extremely significant. It's almost 6 standard deviations from the sample mean.

Let's calculate the probability of the deviation:
Prob = 1-NORMDIST(0.51,0.48,0.011/1.96,TRUE) =2.05809E-09
or 1 in 485,887,838

THE REAL EXPERTS
It's apparent to many that your analysis is full of holes. You say that an "amateur mathematician" proved Ron Baiman, Kathy Dopp, Steve Freeman, myself and other analysts wrong. Really? On DU, we have won every online debate with that tag-team naysayer duo from Bard College and Britain. Baiman and Freeman, both PHDs, have had extensive, real world analytical experience. Dopp has a masters degree in mathematics. Their expertise is reflected in the quality of their published work on the Stolen Election. I'm NOT an amateur mathematician. I have two MS degrees in applied mathematics and have been developing financial, investment and engineering models long before you were born. What are YOUR academic credentials? What makes you an expert in polling analysis?

2.5 MILLION SPOILED DEMOCRATIC VOTES
It's a FACT that over 3 million votes (the great majority Democratic) are spoiled and never counted in every election? In 2004, 3.6mm votes were lost - just check the Census. I'm sure you would agree that Bush stole the 2000 election, despite having lost by 540,000 votes, 51-50.5mm. Add 75% of the 3 million spoiled votes to Gore and it's clear that he actually won by 2 million.

13 MILLION NEW BUSH VOTERS?
In 2004, the Bush recorded win was 62-59 million. Where did he gain over 13 million new votes (1.75mm Bush 2000 voters died before 2004) to go from 49mm to 62mm? Kerry won between 54% to 61% of those who did not vote in 2000 (depending on the exit poll timeline) and over 70% of 3 million Nader voters.

CONFIRMATION: rBr IS DEAD.
Manjoo, I've got news for you; rBr is dead. You call the Reluctant Bush Responder theory persuasive, but it was debunked before you even wrote "No Exit". The Exit Poll Response Optimizer (July 2005) confirmed the USCV simulation model. They both refuted rBr. Here is the Optimizer analysis: http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.p...

THE EXIT POLLS WE WERE NOT SUPPOSED TO SEE
Many voters went to sleep on election day assuming Kerry won. Jonathan Simon stayed up long enough to spot and download the 12:22am state exit polls. Luckily for us, The Washington Post chose not to delete the corresponding National Exit Poll (13047 respondents at 12:22am) which showed Kerry the 51-48% winner. We also have the earlier NEP timelines at 4pm (8349 respondents) and 7:30pm (11027 respondents) which established the 51-48% Kerry trend. He held the lead until the Final National Exit Poll (13660 respondents), when the numbers magically reverted to a 51-48% Bush win. The numbers (weights and vote shares) were revised to match the vote.

THE IMPOSSIBLE FINAL EXIT POLL
According to the Final National Exit poll, 43% of the 122.3 million who voted in 2004 were Bush 2000 voters and 37% were Gore voters. These weightings in and of themselves debunk rBr. Now 43% of 122.3 is 52.57 million. And since Bush only got 50.5mm votes in 2000, of whom about 1.75mm died, only 48.7mm (39.8%) could have returned to vote in 2004, so the 43% Final NEP weighting was mathematically impossible. The Bush vote was inflated by 4 million. I have just shown that the Final Poll at 1:25pm on Nov.3 is bogus and that the earlier 12:22am numbers are close to the truth.

Here's proof that the Final NEP weights are impossible.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/BogusWeight...

Here's the National Exit Poll Timeline. Notice the smooth trend in the first three timelines (4pm,7:38pm,12:22am). Compare it to the discontinuous Bush jump in ALL the demographic weights and/or vote shares in the Final NEP.
http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.p...

REINCARNATED BUSH VOTERS?
We have proved that the Final NEP weights were mathematically impossible - unless you believe that 4 million Bush voters were reincarnated. Simple logic tells us that if the Final Exit poll was matched to the Bush recorded vote and was overstated by at least 4 million, then the Bush recorded vote must also have been overstated by at least 4 million.

If you read my related posts, you would already know all this. But since you never mentioned them in your article, one can assume that a) you never read the posts, or b) you read them but chose not to discuss them. If it's (a), why didn't you? If it's (b), why didn't you? An impartial journalist seeking the truth would have.

NEP or rBr: NAYSAYER HOBSON'S CHOICE
Which do you believe: the Final NEP or rBr? You can't have both.
They are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

THE CLINCHER
You MUST read the "CLINCHER" thread. Kerry wins all plausible scenarios of 2000 voter turnout in 2004, assuming 100% Bush voter turnout and declining Gore voter turnout (from 100% to 70%) over a range of NEP Kerry vote shares (51-60%) of those who did not vote in 2000.

http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.p...

THE GAME
As far as the myth of "false voter recall" is concerned, I suggest you read the "GAME" thread. The Bard College professor's implausible explanation to explain the 3 million Bush "victory" margin (that almost one of 6 Gore voters defected to Bush in 2004 while just one of 16 Bush voters defected to Kerry) requires a leap of faith beyond the pale; the odds against it are astronomical. It's the naysayer's last stand. Their case against the "pristine" exit polls is in its "final throes", having been reduced to a totally implausible hypothesis. Farhad, ask yourself who you voted for in 2004 and 2000. Or did you forget?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

PRE-ELECTION AND EXIT POLL SIMULATIONS
You say you want a simulation? Well, you know...
We're doing the best we can.


THE NEP TIMELINE - A TRAGEDY IN FOUR ACTS
11/2/04, 3:59pm 8349 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3737_P...

11/2/04, 7:33pm 11027 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3798_P...

11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

11/3/04, 1:25pm 13660 respondents: Kerry 48-Bush 51
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3970_P...

THE VILLAINS
Oh, sure, you will probably say: they matched the final exit poll to the vote. They do it all the time. Yes, Farhad, they do, even when the vote is corrupted. How come you never entertained the possibility that the votes were scammed? Or do you trust Bush/Rove to do the right thing and not try to steal the election? Remember Katherine Harris/ Jeb Bush in Florida 2000? Remember Ken Blackwell in Ohio 2004? Remember WMDs, mushroom clouds, Bush reading "My Pet Goat" on 911, domestic spying, torture, stem cells, Diebold, black disenfranchisement, spoiled votes, hacked voting machines, Hava bribes, Plame, the Aug.6, 2001 PDB, clearing Crawford brush,

THE RATIONALISTS
These are just a few of those who believe that the election was stolen: RFK Jr., John Conyers, Mark Miller, Robert Koehler, Michael Keefer, Thom Hartmann, Jim Lampley, Greg Palast, Bob Herbert, Steve Freeman, Kathy Dopp, Wayne Madsen, Ron Baiman, pollsters Harris and Zogby. Over 50% of the public believe that the election was stolen - and the percentage is growing daily. In fact, all the cable networks ran polls (except for Fox) which showed that a majority of viewers believe Bush stole it: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0605/S00200.htm

THE WIMPS
Of course, we still have spineless Democratic politicians who dare not call it "fraud". And that includes wannabee Al Franken. Well, at least Mike Malloy and Randi Rhodes are not afraid to talk about the stolen election. Unlike Al, they have no plans to run for office.

MATHEMATICS
Just curious. What is your math background? Specifically, statistical voting trends, polling mathematics, probability theory, Monte Carlo simulation? If you can't follow the math or logic in my posts, don't feel bad - the Mystery Pollster didn't either. You will learn the basics if you download and run the Interactive Election and Monte Carlo polling simulation models. Do you have Excel? Here's an intro to polling simulation and statistics:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllP...

Link to all of my posts and models at: http://www.truthisall.net
View my recent posts here:
http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.p...

THE SMOKING GUN
Finally, I suggest you consider the following in your next piece:
Considering that Gore won in 2000 by over 540,000 votes and that
1) Kerry won a solid majority of new voters (57-41%) and
2) he also won a large majority of Nader voters (71-21%) and
3) at most 49.2mm Gore and 48.7mm Bush voters turned out in 2004,
then the discussion should end right here because... assuming a 95% turnout of Gore and Bush voters, Bush needed 19.5% OF GORE VOTERS TO WIN BY 3 MILLION VOTES.

ARE WE EXPECTED TO BELIEVE THAT ALMOST ONE OUT OF FIVE GORE VOTERS DECIDED TO FORGIVE BUSH FOR STEALING ELECTION 2000? OK, FORGIVE. BUT VOTE FOR HIM?
AT THE 12:28AM NEP TIMELINE, BUSH WON 8% OF GORE VOTERS. IN THE FINAL, 10%.
________________________________________________________

12:22am (13047 respondents)
Assume 95% turnout of Gore and Bush voters
Bush winning margin: 3.1mm		
	
VOTED IN 2000	
	                  Percentage      	Votes in Millions		
.....	Weight	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	21.59%	26.37	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%	15.0	10.8	0.5
Gore	38.27%	46.75	80.0%	19.5%	0.5%	37.4	9.1	0.2
Bush	37.86%	46.26	10.0%	90.0%	0.0%	4.6	41.6	0.0
Nader	 2.28%	 2.79	71.0%	21.0%	8.0%	2.0	0.6	0.2
								
Total	100.0%    122.3	48.3%	50.9%	0.8%	59.0	62.1	1.0

		                    
Assuming a 2% MoE, the chances are LESS THAN ONE IN 1.5 QUADRILLION THAT BUSH WOULD
GET 16% OF GORE VOTERS!

PROB = 1- NORMDIST(0.16,0.08,0.01,TRUE)
or 1 in 1,501,199,875,790,170

THE NORMDIST FUNCTION COULD NOT PERFORM THE CALCULATION FOR 19%. 
IT GENERATED A DIVISION BY ZERO ERROR. 
THE PROBABILITY IS AT THE VANISHING POINT!
______________________________________________________________________

Based on the 12:22am exit poll vote shares and mathematically feasible weightings,
Kerry won by over 7 MILLION VOTES!	

VOTED IN 2000

                        Vote share 	        Votes in millions		
         Mix	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV     21.59%	26.37	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%	15.0	10.8	0.5
Gore	38.27%	46.75	91.0%	8.0%	1.0%	42.5	 3.7	0.5
Bush	37.86%	46.26	10.0%	90.0%	0.0%	4.6	41.6	0.0
Nader	 2.28%	 2.79	71.0%	21.0%	8.0%	2.0	 0.6	0.2
								
Total	100.0%	122.29  52.4%   46.6%   1.0%    64.2	56.8	1.2

Kerry margin: 7.4 million		

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

None of the folks that Farhad likes to cite have any advanced degrees in mathematics or statistics, and every single one of them has been misled by the English psychologist's sophisms.

Farhad has a point of view that he wants no facts to interfere with.

O'Dell just recently began working on an approach to statistical auditing of vote counts that would be like doing exit poll samples on vote counts. This approach is only useful if the voting system is so bad that no precinct-level counts or machine counts are available like with some systems for counting mail-in, military and overseas ballots. O'Dell has good intentions, but is easily misled in the wrong direction when it comes to mathematics.

I have now derived two math equations for ensuring vote count accuracy:

1. Exit poll discrepancy caused by vote miscount and partisan response bias, making it possible to analyze exit poll discrepancy for consistency with either, and

2. Calculating audit percentages that would detect the level of vote miscounts that could have altered the election, given the actual candidate margins. We are working on this to produce a paper and I hope we'll release a new paper within two months on it, but it is tough without any funding or volunteer help at our NEDA headquarters. It is partly explained in our old audit paper which was just revised. Small margins require large audit percentages of course, much greater than the 1 or 2% now being conducted in some states.

Kathy Dopp
US Count Votes, President
http://electionarchive.org

that you are still waiting for a response from Mr. Manjoo?

Maybe if it was channelled on DU he would see it and reply.

In any case, the tag-team duo is sure to show up.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

this? Salon, Mother Jones & the Tortured Dialogue. This is terrific. Thank you.

Obrador for President Site