http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2737346#2737444

Awsi Dooger (1000+ posts)      Sun Jul-23-06 02:37 PM
Response to Original message 
6. Brown does not hold a substantial lead over DeWine 
 Edited on Sun Jul-23-06 02:43 PM by Awsi Dooger

I see that repeated here far too often. It's like TIA's strategy; embracing
only the most favorable polls toward Democrats and including them in his
election models so he could scream fraud if the result differed. If a firm had
several polls he didn't like, he dismissed that firm as biased.

___________________________________________________________ 

Awsi:
First, let me thank you for your kind words when you learned I was ill.
Quite frankly, I'm surprised you would still refer to my analysis as a
"Strategy". To do what: deceive newbies? Do you think I would have
spent all those months into fudging the analysis? We know that the Final
National and state Exit polls were rigged to match the corrupt recorded vote,
so how do you explain that "strategy"? Get your facts straight. 

I once taught OTOH a lesson when he attempted to debunk my analysis by linking
to four web sites. Unfortunately, he didn't think I would actually read the
links. He may have read them, but was so quick to debunk, he didn't fully
analyze the facts behind the contents. Maybe he was just lazy. Well, I did - so
I called him out on each of his four examples. It's all right here. I strongly
suggest you read it:

http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=120&topic_id=1255

Now, just like OTOH, you have questioned my credibility, by repeating the
naysayer myth that I cherry pick polls.   

First, here's a friendly challenge. You're a sports betting guru, aren't you?
Well, can you compute the odds of the '51 Giants coming from 13.5 games out on
Aug. 12 to tie the Brooklyn Dodgers and win the playoff? 

Here were the standings on Aug.12:
Brooklyn: 73-38
NY Giants: 59-51

Now calculate the odds. Show us whatcha got. And let's compare it to the odds
of Bush exceeding the MoE in 16 state exit polls:  1 in 19 trillion.

Now, back to the subject at hand...
__________________________________________________

Awsi, do you think I cherry-picked these 18 national pre-election polls?

In the Nov.1 Election Model, using the final 18 national polls, I forecast
a 51.63-48.37% Kerry win (two-party). Subtracting 0.5% from Kerry and Bush for
third parties, the full Election Model projection was 51.13-47.87, 0.35% from
the 12:22am NEP Gender vote 50.78-48.22.	

Update to the detailed list below: 
Kerry led in 11 of the 18 polls.
On Nov.2 Zogby and Harris had Kerry ahead by 50-47%. 
Kerry's weighted average lead was slightly higher: 48-47%.

Final 18 Pre-election Poll Summary:							
Kerry won 11, Bush 6, 1 tie			
Kerry won 5 of 9 Registered Voter (RV) Polls
Kerry won 6 of 9 Likely Voter (LV) Polls															

                FINAL NATIONAL PRE-ELECTION POLLS

							    Undecided vote		
		Total	Poll	Total	Weighted Average	67%	33%	
		Sample	Sample	MoE	KERRY	BUSH		KERRY	BUSH	
Date		26961	Group	0.60%	47.55	47.30		50.77	48.23	
										
1-Nov	Marist	1166	LV	2.87%	50	49		49.69	49.31	
1-Nov	Econom  2903	RV	1.82%	49	45		51.62	47.38	
1-Nov	TIPP	1284	LV	2.73%	44	47		52.21	46.79	
1-Nov	CBS	1125	RV	2.92%	47	48		47.99	51.01	
1-Nov	Harris	1509	LV	2.52%	48	49		50.30	48.70	
										
31-Oct	Zogby	1200	LV	2.83%	47	48		50.47	48.53	
31-Oct	FOX	1400	RV	2.62%	48	45		54.57	44.43	
31-Oct	DemCorp	1018	LV	3.07%	48	47		50.33	48.67	
31-Oct	Gallup	1866	RV	2.27%	48	46		52.08	46.92	
31-Oct	NBC	1014	LV	3.08%	47	48		48.11	50.89	
										
31-Oct	ABC	3511	RV	1.65%	47	48		50.78	48.22	
30-Oct	ARG	1258	LV	2.76%	49	48		50.74	48.26	
30-Oct	Pew	2408	RV	2.00%	46	45		51.04	47.96	
29-Oct	Newsw	1005	RV	3.09%	44	48		49.24	49.76	
26-Oct	ICR	817	RV	3.43%	48	48		49.00	50.00	
										
24-Oct	LAT	1698	RV	2.38%	48	47		52.44	46.56	
21-Oct	Time	803	LV	3.46%	46	51		45.06	53.94	
20-Oct	AP	976	LV	3.14%	49	46		51.41	47.59	
										

	
Polling Data Source:									
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovS.pdf
									
	BUSH	KERRY								
			Zogby Poll							
1 LV	48	47	10/4-31/04 REUTERS/ZOGBY TRACKING POLL: 3-day rolling sample of
approx. 1,200 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.9. 							
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other		
			10/29-31/04	48	47	1	4		
										
2 LV	49	50	Marist College Poll. Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,166 registered voters
nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,026 likely voters (MoE ± 3).							
					Bush	Kerry	Unsure			
			11/1/2004	49	50	1			
										
										
3 RV	45	49	Economist  YouGov 		2903	total; MoE +/-2%				
			10/30-11/01	Bush	Kerry				
					45	49				
										
4 LV	47	44	TIPP tracking poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence.
Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,284 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.8.   						
					Bush	Kerry			
		10/30 - 11/1/04	47	44			

5 RV	48	47	CBS News Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,125 likely voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3. 						
					Bush/	Kerry/			
					Cheney	Edwards			
		10/29 - 11/1/04	48	47			
									
6 LV	49	48	The Harris Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004: N=1,509 likely voters
nationwide who express a preference. MoE ± 2.5.						
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other (vol.)	
		10/29 - 11/1/04	49	48	2	1	
									
7 RV	45	48	FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 30-31, 2004. N=1,400 registered
voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,200 likely voters (MoE ± 3).						
					George	John	Other 	Wouldn't	
					W. Bush	Kerry	Not Sure	Vote (vol.)	
			10/30-31/04	45	48	7	-	
									
8 LV	47	48	Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
(D). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,018 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.						
					George	John	Ralph	Other	Unsure
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	(vol.)	
			10/29-31/04	47	48	1	1	3

9 RV	46	48	CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,866 registered
voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,573 likely voters (MoE ± 3).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other	None/
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	(vol.)	Unsure
			10/29-31/04	46	48	1	1	4

10 LV	48	47	NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling
organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004.
N=1,014 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	None/	Unsure
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Other (vol.)	
			10/29-31/04	48	47	1	2	2
									
11 RV	48	47	ABC News Tracking Poll and Washington Post Tracking Poll. Rolling
sample. Fieldwork by TNS. ABC News and The Washington Post share data
collection for this tracking poll, but calculate and report the results
independently. WASHINGTON POST: Oct. 28-31, 200						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	None/	No
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Wouldn't	Opinion
			ABC News Tracking Poll 						
			10/28-31/04	48	47	1	2	2
									
									
12 LV	48	49	American Research Group Poll. Oct. 28-30, 2004. N=1,500 registered
voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 1,258 likely voters (MoE ± 2.8).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Other/		
					Cheney	Edwards	Unsure		
					48	49	3		

13 RV	45	46	Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted
by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 27-30, 2004. N=2,408
registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 1,925 likely voters (MoE ± 2.5).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other/	
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Unsure	
			10/27-30/04	45	46	1	8	
									
14 RV	48	44	Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates
International. Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=1,005 registered voters nationwide (MoE ±
4); 882 likely voters (MoE ± 4).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other (vol.)/	
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Undecided	
			10/27-29/04	48	44	1	7	

15 RV	48	48	ICR/International Communications Research poll. Oct. 22-26, 2004.
N=817 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3.4); 741 likely voters (MoE ±
3.6).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Other	Neither	Unsure
					Cheney	Edwards	(vol.)	(vol.)	
			10/22-26/04	48	48	-	1	4
									
16 RV	47	48	Los Angeles Times Poll. Oct. 21-24, 2004. N=1,698 registered voters
nationwide (MoE ± 3); 881 likely voters (MoE ± 3).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Unsure		
					Cheney	Edwards			
			10/21-24/04	47	48	5		
									
17 LV	51	46	Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI)
Public Affairs. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=1,059 registered voters nationwide (MoE ±
3); 803 likely voters (MoE ± 4). 						
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	Unsure	
			10/19-21/04	51	46	2	1	
									.
18 LV	46	49	Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Oct.
18-20, 2004. N=1,330 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 976 likely voters
(MoE ± 3).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other/	
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	None (vol.)/	
			10/18-20/04	46	49	2	3	

________________________________________________________________

Awsi, do you think I rigged the National Exit Poll timeline?
Why don't you check the numbers?

 Edited by TruthIsAll on Tue Jul-18-06 11:32 PM 

				KERRY NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE DETAIL		

We know that the Final was matched to the recorded vote.
Can any naysayer provide a detailed explanation of the underlying process
in generating the timeline from 4pm on Nov.2 to the 1:25pm Final? 

That means analyzing the change in weights AND vote shares for the four
timelines shown below - for all demographic categories.

Note: 
< change in weights / characteristics from 12:22am to Final (1:25pm)	
										
		 4pm 7:33pm 12:22am 1:25pm          4pm 7:33pm  12:22am 1:25pm
Respondents	8349	11027	13047	13660		8349	11027	13047	13660
										
		Category Weighting			Kerry Percentage		
GENDER										
Male 		42	46	46	46		47	47	47	44 <<<
Fem 		58	54	54	54		53	54	54	51 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.48	50.78	50.78	47.78
VOTE (mm)						61.72	62.08	62.08	58.42
										
REGION										
East		23	22	22	22		58	58	58	56 <<
Midwt		25	26	26	26		50	50	50	48 <<
South		31	31	31	32		44	45	45	42 <<<
West		21	21	21	20		53	53	53	50 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.61	50.84	50.84	48.24
VOTE (mm)						61.88	62.16	62.16	58.98
										
PARTY ID										
Democrat 	39	38	38	37<		90	90	90	89 <
Repub 	      36	36	35	37<<		7	7	7	6  <
Indep 	      25	26	27	26<		52	52	52	49 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.62	50.24	50.69	47.89
VOTE (mm)						61.89	61.42	61.97	58.55

IDEOLOGY										
Liberal 	22	22	22	21 <		86	87	86	85 <
Moderate 	45	45	45	45		58	57	57	54 <<<
Conservative	33	33	33	34 <		16	16	16	15 <
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.3	50.07	49.85	47.25
VOTE (mm)						61.50	61.22	60.95	57.77
										
VOTED IN 2000										
NoVote          15	17	17	17		62	59	57	54 <<<
Gore		39	38	39	37<<		91	91	91	90 <
Bush		42	41	41	43<<		9	9	10	9 <
Other		4	4	3	3		61	65	71	71
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.01	50.9	51.41	48.48
VOTE (mm)						62.36	62.23	62.85	59.27
										
WHEN DECIDED										
Today           6 	6	6	5		52	54	53	52 <
Last3Days  	3	3	3	4		50	54	53	55 >>
LastWeek 	2	2	2	2		48	48	48	48
LastMonth      10	  10	    10	10		61	61	60	54 <<<<<<<
Over30Days 	79	79	79	79		50	50	50	46 <<<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.18	51.42	51.23	47.5
VOTE (mm)						62.57	62.87	62.63	58.07
										
EDUCATION										
NoHS		4	4	4	4		50	52	52	50 <<
H.S. 		22	22	22	22		50	51	51	47 <<<<
College 	30	31	31	32 <		48	47	47	46 <
Grad		26	26	26	26		48	49	48	46 <<
PostGrad 	18	17	17	16 <		58	58	58	55 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.32	50.34	50.21	47.82
VOTE (mm)						61.52	61.55	61.39	58.46
										
RACE										
WM		33	36	36	36		40	41	41	37 <<<<
WF		44	41	41	41		47	47	47	44 <<<
NWM		10	10	10	10		69	70	69	67 <<
NWF		13	13	13	13		77	77	77	75 <<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.79	51.04	50.94	47.81
VOTE (mm)						62.10	62.40	62.28	58.45
										
AGE										
18-29 	          15	17	17	17		56	56	56	54 <<
30-44 	          27	27	27	29<<		48	49	49	46 <<<
45-59 	          31	30	30	30		52	51	51	48 <<<
60+		27	26	26	24<<		48	48	48	46 <<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.44	50.53	50.53	47.96
VOTE (mm)						61.67	61.78	61.78	58.64
										
INCOME										
0-15	       9	9	9	8 <		68	66	66	63 <<<
15-30 	      15	15	15	15		59	59	59	57 <<
30-50 	      22	22	22	22		53	52	52	50 <<
50-75 	      22	23	23	23		46	45	45	43 <<
75-100 	      14	13	13	14 <		49	49	49	45 <<<<
100-150 	11	11	11	11		44	45	45	42 <<<
150-200 	4	4	4	4		45	47	47	42 <<<<<
200+ 	          3 	3	3	3		40	41	41	35 <<<<<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.45	51.01	51.01	48.13
VOTE (mm)						62.90	62.36	62.36	58.84

RELIGION										
Protestant	53	53	53	53		43	43	43	40 <<<
Catholic 	27	27	27	27		50	50	50	47 <<<
Jewish	           3	3	3	3		77	77	77	74 <<<
Other 	           7	7	7	7		76	75	75	74 <
None 		10	10	10	10		69	70	70	67 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.82	50.85	50.85	47.99
VOTE (mm)						62.13	62.17	62.17	58.67
										
MILITARY										
InMilitary	18	18	18	18		43	43	43	41 <<
NoMilitary	82	82	82	82		52	53	53	50 <<<
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.38	51.2	51.2	48.38
VOTE (mm)						61.59	62.60	62.60	59.15
				
_______________________________________________________________
 
So you think I cherry-picked these final state pre-election and exit polls?
I used ARG, Zogby, Survey USA, Mason-Dixon, Gallup, etc for the pre-election
model. Check them out. In the Nov.1 election model, I forecast a Kerry two-
party win:51.8-48.2%. So I guess my choice of polls and undecided voter
assumptions were pretty good.

As for the state exits, you can check them also. I used the 12:22am state exits
downloaded by Jonathan Simon. The simulation run below gave Kerry a 50.55-48.45%
win based on the pre-election polls and a 50.8-48.2% win based on the exit
polls.

										
 Kerry Electoral Vote		MONTE CARLO SIMULATION					
319	Mean			STATE PRE-ELECTION AND EXIT POLLS				
320	Median									
364	Maximum		 					
259	Minimum									

	Pre-Election	Exit 	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Kerry   Kerry
		MoE	MoE	Pre	Pre	Exit 	Exit	PreSim	ExitSim Final
	Wtd Avg	0.60	0.44	47.50	47.02	50.06	49.03	50.55	50.80	48.32
										
AL	9	3.89	4.28	39.00	57.00	40.48	58.06	41.20	40.50	36.86
AK	3	3.76	3.82	30.00	57.00	38.76	57.80	43.39	43.31	35.61
AR	6	3.95	2.72	45.00	50.00	46.13	52.87	46.14	46.16	44.40
AZ	10	3.96	3.13	46.00	48.00	46.71	52.82	45.74	45.59	44.55
CA	55	3.95	2.67	49.00	42.00	54.64	43.40	55.36	55.45	54.43
										
CO	9	3.96	2.34	47.00	48.00	48.12	49.94	46.70	46.73	47.08
CT	7	3.94	3.92	52.00	42.00	57.65	40.94	57.16	57.27	54.31
DE	3	3.95	4.18	45.00	38.00	57.27	40.73	62.51	62.61	53.36
DC	3	2.61	2.31	78.00	11.00	89.80	8.20	89.78	89.68	89.43
FL	27	3.96	2.20	47.00	47.00	49.70	49.84	50.56	50.56	47.13
										
GA	15	3.94	2.97	42.00	52.00	42.92	56.64	42.19	42.31	41.41
HI	4	3.96	5.25	45.00	45.00	53.32	46.68	49.63	48.83	54.01
ID	4	3.74	4.69	30.00	59.00	32.85	65.70	34.49	30.09	30.26
IL	21	3.93	3.12	54.00	42.00	56.56	42.44	56.58	58.67	54.82
IN	11	3.88	3.80	39.00	58.00	40.56	58.44	40.72	41.11	39.26
										
IA	7	3.95	2.35	50.00	44.00	49.70	48.38	49.83	49.70	49.29
KS	6	3.85	4.38	37.00	60.00	34.10	64.45	43.11	35.88	36.62
KY	8	3.90	3.59	39.00	56.00	40.16	58.38	38.58	38.76	39.69
LA	9	3.94	2.86	40.00	48.00	43.85	54.70	48.32	43.63	42.31
ME	4	3.93	2.64	50.00	39.00	53.77	44.29	56.08	53.21	53.57
										
MD	10	3.93	3.68	54.00	43.00	56.16	42.30	54.88	55.03	55.97
MA	12	3.62	3.72	64.00	27.00	65.16	32.88	68.01	66.25	62.09
MI	17	3.95	2.37	52.00	45.00	51.50	46.50	54.46	52.50	51.25
MN	10	3.95	2.51	52.00	44.00	53.52	44.48	55.19	53.83	51.20
MS	6	3.94	4.12	42.00	51.00	43.00	56.53	47.03	42.43	40.22
										
MO	11	3.95	2.53	44.00	49.00	47.00	52.00	46.14	46.14	46.10
MT	3	3.86	4.54	36.00	57.00	37.51	57.98	38.34	37.07	38.57
NE	5	3.76	4.04	32.00	61.00	36.00	62.52	37.31	36.30	32.72
NV	5	3.96	2.56	49.00	49.00	49.16	47.88	48.93	48.89	48.09
NH	4	3.96	2.72	47.00	47.00	54.94	44.06	55.22	55.75	50.35
										
NJ	15	3.94	2.99	50.00	42.00	54.70	42.76	57.35	57.39	52.95
NM	5	3.96	2.66	49.00	49.00	50.08	47.46	51.98	52.91	49.05
NY	31	3.89	2.96	57.00	39.00	62.75	35.35	58.89	63.42	58.39
NC	15	3.96	2.52	47.00	50.00	46.64	51.94	48.71	45.92	43.59
ND	3	3.86	4.36	35.00	55.00	32.57	64.43	41.17	30.60	35.50
										
OH	20	3.96	2.65	50.00	47.00	52.06	47.94	51.20	51.68	48.71
OK	7	3.68	2.85	28.00	61.00	34.56	64.96	37.12	34.71	34.43
OR	7	3.95	3.60	50.00	44.00	50.25	47.85	54.96	49.77	51.60
PA	21	3.95	2.67	50.00	45.00	54.12	45.35	52.98	54.13	50.96
RI	4	3.87	3.96	56.00	36.00	62.65	34.88	59.26	63.34	59.57
										
SC	8	3.92	2.81	42.00	55.00	45.13	53.44	44.50	45.76	40.96
SD	3	3.94	2.94	42.00	52.00	36.47	61.00	45.17	38.40	38.44
TN	11	3.96	2.75	47.00	50.00	40.56	58.00	50.62	41.13	42.53
TX	34	3.85	2.78	37.00	59.00	36.30	62.24	42.24	36.90	38.23
UT	5	3.47	3.81	24.00	69.00	29.08	68.08	26.11	31.45	26.03
										
VT	3	3.92	4.27	53.00	40.00	63.65	33.25	52.87	64.06	59.22
VA	13	3.96	3.11	47.00	51.00	47.00	51.00	48.79	49.57	45.56
WA	11	3.95	2.54	52.00	44.00	53.48	43.64	51.23	54.57	52.86
WV	5	3.96	2.82	45.00	49.00	44.53	54.00	48.25	42.80	43.20
WI	10	3.95	2.49	51.00	44.00	49.24	48.82	52.58	49.31	49.76
WY	3	3.66	4.20	29.00	65.00	30.94	65.53	30.49	30.39	29.13
___________________________________________________________________________
                 
How about these monthly pre-election poll numbers? Do you want to check them
for accuracy? Be my guest.

Note: < indicates net Kerry polling gain (loss) in the final poll.
Kerry gained in 13 of the final 15 polls. The average gain was 4%.

  NATIONAL POLL TREND               
                  
 Current         Projection              
 Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff            
                  
1.TIPP                  
Feb 44 41 3 55.3 44.8 10.5            
Mar 45 43 2 54.0 46.0 8.0            
Apr 40 44 -4 52.0 48.0 4.0            
May 43 42 1 54.3 45.8 8.5            
June 43 44 -1 52.8 47.3 5.5            
July 46 43 3 54.3 45.8 8.5            
Aug 44 44 0 53.0 47.0 6.0            
Sept 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5            
Oct 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5   < -2         
AVG  43.89 43.44 0.44 53.39 46.61 6.78            
                  
2.ABC                  
Feb 52 43 9 55.8 44.3 11.5            
Mar 53 44 9 55.3 44.8 10.5            
Apr 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5            
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0            
June 53 45 8 54.5 45.5 9.0            
July 47 49 -2 50.0 50.0 0.0            
Aug 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5            
Sept 45 51 -6 48.0 52.0 -4.0            
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5      < +7      
AVG 49.33 47.00 2.33 52.08 47.92 4.17            
                  
3.AP                  
Jan  37 54 -17 43.8 56.3 -12.5            
Mar 45 46 -1 51.8 48.3 3.5            
Apr 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5            
May 43 46 -3 51.3 48.8 2.5            
July 45 49 -4 49.5 50.5 -1.0            
Aug 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5            
Sept 42 51 -9 47.3 52.8 -5.5            
Oct 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5      < +12      
AVG 44.88 46.75 -1.88 51.16 48.84 2.31            
                  
4.Nwk                  
Jan  41 52 -11 46.3 53.8 -7.5            
Feb 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5            
Mar 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5            
Apr 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5            
May 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5            
July 51 45 6 54.0 46.0 8.0            
Aug 52 44 8 55.0 45.0 10.0            
Sept 45 50 -5 48.8 51.3 -2.5            
Oct 45 48 -3 50.3 49.8 0.5       < +2     
AVG 48.11 45.56 2.56 52.86 47.14 5.72            
                  
5.ARG                  
Jan  47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5            
Feb 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0            
Mar 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5            
Apr 50 44 6 54.5 45.5 9.0            
May 47 44 3 53.8 46.3 7.5            
June 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0            
July 49 45 4 53.5 46.5 7.0            
Aug 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5            
Sep 46 47 -1 51.3 48.8 2.5            
Oct 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5        < +2    
AVG 48.44 45.44 3.00 53.03 46.97 6.06            
                  
                
6.NBC                  
Jan  35 54 -19 43.3 56.8 -13.5            
Mar 43 46 -3 51.3 48.8 2.5            
May 42 46 -4 51.0 49.0 2.0            
June 44 45 -1 52.3 47.8 4.5            
July 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0            
Aug 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0            
Sep 46 49 -3 49.8 50.3 -0.5            
Oct 47 48 -1 50.8 49.3 1.5         <+2   
AVG 44.38 46.75 -2.38 51.03 48.97 2.06            
                  
7.FOX                  
Jan  32 54 -22 42.5 57.5 -15.0            
Feb 43 47 -4 50.5 49.5 1.0            
Mar 44 44 0 53.0 47.0 6.0            
Apr 42 43 -1 53.3 46.8 6.5            
May 42 42 0 54.0 46.0 8.0            
June 42 48 -6 49.5 50.5 -1.0            
July 42 43 -1 53.3 46.8 6.5            
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5            
Sep 43 45 -2 52.0 48.0 4.0            
Oct 48 45 3 53.3 46.8 6.5           <+2 
AVG 43.44 44.56 -1.11 52.44 47.56 4.89            
                  
8.CBS                  
Jan  48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5            
Feb 47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5            
Mar 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5            
Apr 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5            
May 49 41 8 56.5 43.5 13.0            
June 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5            
July 49 44 5 54.3 45.8 8.5            
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5            
Sep 41 49 -8 48.5 51.5 -3.0            
Oct 46 47 -1 51.3 48.8 2.5            <+7
AVG 46.44 44.56 1.89 53.19 46.81 6.39            
                  
                  
9.Gallup                  
Jan  43 55 -12 44.5 55.5 -11.0            
Feb 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5            
Mar 52 44 8 55.0 45.0 10.0            
Apr 46 51 -5 48.3 51.8 -3.5            
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0            
June 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5            
July 51 44 7 54.8 45.3 9.5            
Aug 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5            
Sep 44 52 -8 47.0 53.0 -6.0            
Oct 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0            <+10
AVG 48.22 47.67 0.56 51.31 48.69 2.61            
                  
10.PEW                  
Jan  41 52 -11 46.3 53.8 -7.5            
Feb 47 47 0 51.5 48.5 3.0            
Mar 48 44 4 54.0 46.0 8.0            
Apr 47 46 1 52.3 47.8 4.5            
May 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5            
June 46 48 -2 50.5 49.5 1.0            
July 46 44 2 53.5 46.5 7.0            
Aug 47 45 2 53.0 47.0 6.0            
Sep 40 48 -8 49.0 51.0 -2.0            
Oct 46 45 1 52.8 47.3 5.5           <+9 
AVG 46.33 45.78 0.56 52.25 47.75 4.50            
                  
11.LAT                  
Apr 49 46 3 52.8 47.3 5.5            
June 51 44 7 54.8 45.3 9.5            
July 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0            
Aug 46 49 -3 49.8 50.3 -0.5            
Sep 43 47 -4 50.5 49.5 1.0            
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5           <+5 
AVG 47.71 46.43 1.29 52.11 47.89 4.21                    
                  
12.ZOGBY                  
Mar 48 46 2 52.5 47.5 5.0            
Apr 47 44 3 53.8 46.3 7.5            
May 47 42 5 55.3 44.8 10.5            
June 44 42 2 54.5 45.5 9.0            
July 48 43 5 54.8 45.3 9.5            
Aug 50 43 7 55.3 44.8 10.5            
Sep 44 47 -3 50.8 49.3 1.5            
Oct 47 48 -1 50.8 49.3 1.5           <+2 
AVG 46.88 44.38 2.50 53.44 46.56 6.88            
                  
13.TIME                  
Jan 43 54 -11 45.3 54.8 -9.5            
Feb 48 50 -2 49.5 50.5 -1.0            
May 51 46 5 53.3 46.8 6.5            
July 50 45 5 53.8 46.3 7.5            
Aug 46 46 0 52.0 48.0 4.0            
Sep 44 48 -4 50.0 50.0 0.0            
Oct 46 51 -5 48.3 51.8 -3.5          <-1  
AVG 48.00 47.43 0.57 51.43 48.57 2.86            
                  
14.DemC                  
Feb 51 47 4 52.5 47.5 5.0            
Mar 47 50 -3 49.3 50.8 -1.5            
Apr 48 49 -1 50.3 49.8 0.5            
May 49 47 2 52.0 48.0 4.0            
June 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5            
July 50 47 3 52.3 47.8 4.5            
Aug 52 45 7 54.3 45.8 8.5            
Sep 49 49 0 50.5 49.5 1.0            
Oct 48 47 1 51.8 48.3 3.5          <+1  
AVG 49.22 47.67 1.56 51.56 48.44 3.11            
                  
15.Marist                  
July 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5            
Aug 45 44 1 53.3 46.8 6.5            
Sep 45 47 -2 51.0 49.0 2.0            
Oct 49 48 1 51.3 48.8 2.5         <+3   
AVG 46.00 45.75 0.25 52.19 47.81 4.38 

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Awsi Dooger (1000+ posts)      Mon Jul-24-06 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #25 

36. In regard to exit polls, I've noticed plenty of silly, the other way 
 Edited on Mon Jul-24-06 04:00 PM by Awsi Dooger

Let's take that national exit poll, the one embraced by fraud theorists
asserting Kerry won nationally 51-48. I haven't mentioned this on DU in
probably a year, and perhaps never in this forum, but time for a recap. 

One category conveniently overlooked is "When Decided." If you
analyze those numbers based on how the race unfolded and the pre-election poll
consensus, the adjusted 1:25 PM Monday results make much more real world sense
than 12:22 AM, or either of the two previous calls. 

All three non-adjusted "When Decided" numbers are remarkably similar,
Kerry with 50% among the 79% of voters who decided more than 30 days before
election day. Then Kerry takes 60 or 61% among the 10% of voters deciding
"Last Month." So if those numbers are true, and this is a
representative sample, then how did Kerry ever trail in the pre-election polls?
Certainly in the final weeks he should have led, but that's hardly the case in
the late poll consensus: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html 

Let me guess the response; the pre-election polls were wrong, tilted to Bush.
Funny how that wasn't the argument post-2002, when pre-election polls were
gospel around here, and the older the better. I still see posters insisting
Cleland was up double digits over Chambliss in Georgia, even though the late
polls had it tied with all the momentum toward Chambliss. 

Anyway, that 12:22 AM NEP, the one preferred as the ultimate truth around here,
gives Kerry 53% of the late deciders, those who made up their mind on election
day or within the previous three days. His number along "Last Week"
is even worse, 48%. Sorry, but there wasn't a pre-election model on this planet
that gave Kerry 51% of the popular vote if he managed only a slight majority of
the late undecideds. TIA was championing 67% in his election model. I warned
him several times that was wildly optimistic, since the challenger has been
defined and hardly charismatic. In my model I struggled between 55 and 62%.
Only the highest numbers in that range pushed Kerry slightly over the top. The
wild cards were party ID, white women and late undecideds, and all indications
are we lost all three, compared to the numbers we needed. 

On the other hand, the weighted NEP describes the race exactly as I remember
it. Kerry has 46% of those deciding beyond 30 days. Then a 54% majority among
"Last Month." That probably reflects Kerry's debate superiority. But
over the final week, with the release of the Bin Laden tape and 9/11 providing
a fear-based ally for the incumbent, the vital late undecideds don't break
sharply our way and Kerry comes up short. 
__________________________________________________


TIA
Awsi, go back to the OP. Kerry was leading in 11 of the final 18 national
pre-election polls. Nine polls were RV, 9 were LV. I have documented them all
in the OP. So why do you keep insisting that Bush was leading?

Let's see your list. Were the "Real Clear" Polls RV or LV? 
If they were all LV, that's cherry-picking. 
Lo and behold, they're ALL LV!
Do you want to associate yourself with the "Real Clear" cherry-picked
list?

KNOW THIS:
RV POLLS INCLUDE ALL REGISTERED VOTERS, WHETHER OR NOT THEY ARE NEWLY
REGISTERED OR JUST DID NOT VOTE IN 2000. 
LV POLLS DON'T INCLUDE THIS LARGE 2004 VOTER GROUP. 

KERRY WON A CLEAR MAJORITY (57-60%) OF 21MM VOTERS WHO DID NOT VOTE IN 2000 AND
WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A LIKELY VOTER POLL. 
_____________________________________________________________________

Awsi, it looks like you just came up short.
Here's your cherry-picked LV poll list. 
It's Real Clear. Not one RV poll in sight.

Poll Date Bush/Cheney  Kerry/Edwards  Nader/Camejo  Spread 

RCP Average  FINAL 50.0% 48.5% 1.0% Bush +1.5 
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/1 48.9% 47.4% 0.9% Bush +1.5 

Marist (1026 LV) 11/1 49% 50% 0% Kerry +1 
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/31 - 11/1 50% 46% 0% Bush +4 
TIPP (1041 LV) 10/30 - 11/1 50.1% 48.0% 1.1% Bush +2.1 
CBS News (939 LV) 10/29 - 11/1 49% 47% 1% Bush +2 

Harris (1509 LV) 10/29 - 11/1 49% 48% 2% Bush +1  
****not the latest. The final on 11/2 was 50-47 Kerry.

FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31 46% 48% 1% Kerry +2 

Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1 
****not the latest. The final on 11/2 was 50-47 Kerry.

CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)* 10/29 - 10/31 49% 49% 1% TIE 
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1 
ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)** 10/28 - 10/31 49% 48% 0% Bush +1 

ARG (1258 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 48% 48% 1% TIE 
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 49% 46% 1% Bush +3 
Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27 - 10/30 51% 48% 1% Bush +3 
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29 50% 44% 1% Bush +6 
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/25 - 10/28 51% 46% 0% Bush +5 

ICR (741 LV) 10/22 - 10/26 48% 45% 2% Bush +3 
CNN/USAT/Gallup (1195 LV) 10/22 - 10/24 51% 46% 1% Bush +5 
Los Angeles Times (881 LV) 10/21 - 10/24 48% 48% 1% TIE 
Newsweek (880 LV) 10/21 - 10/22 48% 46% 1% Bush +2 
Time (803 LV) 10/19 - 10/21 51% 46% 2% Bush +5 

_____________________________________________________________

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

You want to change the subject to the When Decided demographic.
Unfortunately, you cited the Final 1:25pm exit poll, which gave Kerry 46%.
If you recall, I have already shown that the Final was bogus. The How Voted in
2000 demographic had impossible 43/37 weights. Therefore, it follows that ALL
Final Exit Poll demographics were bogus as well SINCE THEY EACH MATCHED TO A
BOGUS VOTE. Including "When Decided". It sure IS pure math. According
to the 12:22am timeline (Kerry won 51-47), 50% of those who decided Over 30 Days
prior to the election voted for Kerry. 
________________________________________________________________
Melissa G 
55. Hi Awsi, you seem to merit a TIA refuting... 
 PM me if you need directions to view the dissection.. 

 Awsi Dooger (1000+ posts)      Wed Jul-26-06 12:02 AM
Response to Reply #55 
76. I seriously doubt TIA looked at the "When Decided" category
prior to 2004 
 Melissa, that's my beef with TIA and Steven Freeman, among others. Instant
authority, even though they had no background in the subject. TIA certainly
has done extremely impressive mathematical work on DU and elsewhere for
years, but I debated with him often enough to know he placed extreme
emphasis on pre-election polls before 2004, virtually no mention of exit
polls. Of course, that's partially attributable to the exit poll collapse
of 2002. I'm sure he would have managed dozens of threads if the 2002 exit
polling had been released.

But this is what I'm getting at, not all of this is pure math. It helps to
know the applicable trends and evaluate them sensibly and with historical
background. I'm posted previously I think you could hand Steven Freeman an
exit poll allowing John Kerry 60% in Utah and he would merely type it in
his database and scream foul if the actual vote tally didn't match. 

I've studied that "When Decided" category since '96. Hundreds of
views, including presidential, governor and senate. Not once have I seen a
Democrat with 50+% in the "Over 30 Days" category who hadn't lead
in the pre-election polls. Let me repeat that, not a single time. In fact, I
can't remember a Democrat with 49% who didn't lead the early polling, nor a
Democrat who was tied with the GOP opponent even if both were slightly
below 50%. 

That category is dominated by the Republican. I should have emphasized that
in my post last night. Sometimes I leave out a point when I've mentioned it
on so many forums it seems cliche. But that's what I was referring to when
I asked how Kerry didn't lead the pre-election polls if he truly earned 50%
beyond 30 days, and 61% in the "Last Month" category. If Democrats
had to rely on the election result matching that "Over 30 Days"
margin, we would be a 30% party in congress. I don't know if Republicans
are truly less flexible, or merely like to assert they knew all along, but
just check out the state by state exit polls for 2004 or earlier and you'll
see what I mean. It's hardly uncommon for a Democrat to trail that category
by 8 or 10%, even if the race was tight throughout.

Of course, it's not always a perfect comparison or easy to evaluate because
the pre-election polls have much lower percentage of undecideds than the
exit polls reveal. The pollsters include leaners and I think it's human
nature to voice an opinion and not whimper out with a "sorry, no
idea." Men, in particular, seem reluctant to say they're undecided.
But in 2004 you had an extraordinary percentage of knew-all-alongs in the
exit polls, mid to high 70s everywhere including 79% in the presidential
race. That's maybe 10% higher than typical.

Admittedly, I've looked at that "When Decided" number primarily
for betting purposes, plus understanding how states vote in relation to how
they were polled. Sometimes the exit poll number in that "When
Decided" category hints the pre-election polling was flawed all along.
The most dramatic example is the '04 Alaska senate race between Tony Knowles
and Lisa Murkowski. Conventional wisdom is Knowles led for an entire year,
normally a few points, then senator Ted Stevens changed the outcome with a
late fear flurry. But the beyond 30 days number was overwhelming in favor
of Murkowski, something like +15, then Knowles grabbed a vast majority of
the final month and late deciders. I've read many pollsters say Alaska is
very difficult to poll and that's further confirmation. I'm convinced
Knowles never led at all, or not in the final months. Determining where the
polls are likely to err is my hobby, not screaming fraud if they do err. I
wagered on Lisa Murkowski in that race, since my PAN or Partisan Adjustment
Number for Alaska indicated she was probably leading. 

I know, Diebold in Alaska. It's always Diebold. But the same thing happened
in 2002 when Fran Ulmer narrowly trailed Frank Murkowski in the polls, then
he blasted her by 15%. 

I realize this has rambled. A TIA response is more than welcome if he
addresses the historical issue, and finds another example(s) of a Democrat
at 50+% in that beyond 30 days "When Decided" slot who did not
lead the pre-election polls. Frankly, if someone had told me in early 2004
that Kerry would get 50% in that category, I would have projected him to
lead the pre-election polling by 2-4%. Again, this is poll based, not
result based. Certainly possible for a Democrat to lead that category, then
lose via late deciders, and the reverse is true.

So my dilemma regarding 2004 is do I trust the relationship I've noticed
since '96, that a Democrat with 50+% long term strength naturally led the
pre-election polling, or since that didn't happen, not even close, do I
reject that 50% as a flawed representation and conclude the 46% adjusted
figure is more likely accurate? I choose the latter, with the caveat that
virtually all my 10 years of sample have been with "weighted"
exit poll figures. Maybe they've been fooling me all along.
__________________________________________________________________________

TIA
Here are the NEP demographic vote shares, adjusted to derive the Kerry 64-57mm
margin, which was based on applying feasible weights to the How Voted in 2000
demographic (see below). I gave Kerry 49% and Bush 50% for the "When
Decided" 30 days grouping.

http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=120&topic_id=1583

			NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS
                  12:22am 13047 respondents


No-adjustment:
Impossible "How Voted in 2000" weights: 39% Gore/41% Bush
National vote share: 
Gender: Kerry 50.78% / Bush 48.22%
How Voted in 2000: Kerry 51.41%/ Bush 47.62%

Adjusted:
Feasible weights/vote shares: Gore 39.45%/Bush 39.02%  
(Assume equal 98% Gore & Bush voter turnout).
National vote share: 
Gender: Kerry 52.35% / Bush 46.65%
How Voted in 2000: Kerry 52.39% / Bush 46.65%

Note: ALL other Demographic Weights/category vote shares are adjusted in 
order to match "How Voted in 2000" vote shares: 
52.39% Kerry /46.65% Bush
That means Kerry won by 7 million votes: 64-57mm.

	Final Recorded Vote							
	Kerry	Bush	Other					
	48.28%	50.73%	0.91%					
	59.028	62.027	1.116					
	Total	122.27mm votes					
									
	12:22am Adjusted       		            12:22am No adj.	
CATEGORY		Kerry	Bush	Other			Kerry	Bush Other
Total Votes		64.01	56.95	1.22			62.05	58.45	1.26
Percent	             52.39%  46.61%	1.00%		      50.79%	47.84%	1.03%
2-party		        52.92%	47.08%				51.50%	48.50%	
									
									
Gender		        52.35%	46.65%	1.00%			50.78%	48.22%	1.00%
Party- ID		52.34%	46.66%	1.00%			50.69%	47.50%	1.27%
Voted 2000		52.39%	46.65%	0.96%			51.41%	47.62%	0.97%
Region		        52.41%	46.59%	1.00%			50.53%	47.95%	1.00%
Education		52.39%	46.61%	1.00%			50.43%	48.18%	1.39%
									
Race		        52.40%	46.60%	1.00%			50.94%	47.86%	1.00%
Age		        52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			50.26%	47.69%	1.05%
Income		        52.39%	46.61%	1.00%			51.39%	47.39%	0.94%
Ideology		52.40%	46.60%	1.00%			49.85%	48.15%	1.00%
Religion		52.48%	46.52%	1.00%			50.78%	47.94%	1.21%
									
Military		52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			51.20%	47.62%	1.00%
Decided		        52.37%	46.63%	1.00%			51.23%	47.95%	0.54%
										

12:22am Adjusted	................................  1:25pm Final

WHEN DECIDED
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Today 	7.34	6%	68%	31%	1%		5%	52%	45%	1%
Last3 	3.67	3%	68%	31%	1%		4%	55%	42%	1%
Last7 	2.45	2%	67%	32%	1%		2%	48%	51%	0%
Last30 	12.23	10%	62%	37%	1%		10%	54%	44%	1%
Over30	96.59	79%	49%	50%	1%		79%	46%	53%	0%
										
Total 			52.37%	46.63%	1.00%	              47.50% 51.54% .21%
	      122.27	64.07	56.98	1.22		121.04	57.77	63.02	0.26

VOTED IN 2000	
      Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	23.56	19.27%	57%	41%	2%		17%	54%	45%	1%
Gore	48.23	39.45%	91%	8%	1%		37%	90%	10%	0%
Bush	47.71	39.02%	10%	90%	0%		43%	9%	91%	0%
Other	2.76	2.26%	71%	21%	8%		3%	71%	21%	3%
										
Total 			52.39%	46.65%	0.96%		       48.48%	51.11%	0.26%
	      122.27	64.05	57.04	1.17		122.08 59.28	62.49	0.32
										

GENDER	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Male 	56.73	46.40%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%		46%	44%     55%	0%
Female 	65.54	53.60%	55.3%	43.7%	1.00%		54%	51%	48%	0%
										
Total 			52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			47.78%	51.22%	0.00%
	      122.27	64.04	57.01	1.22		121.04	58.42	62.63	0.00
										
	
PARTY ID	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem	46.46	38%	92%	7%	1%		37%	89%	11%	0%
Rep 	42.79	35%	8%	91%	1%		37%	6%	93%	0%
Ind	33.01	27%	54%	45%	1%		26%	49%	48%	1%
										
Total 			52.34%	46.66%	1.00%		        47.89%	50.96%	0.26%
	      122.27	63.99	57.05	1.22		121.18	58.55	62.31	0.32
																			
REGION	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
East	26.90	22%	59%	40%	1%		22%	56%	43%	1%
Midw	31.79	26%	51%	48%	1%		26%	48%	51%	0%
South	37.90	31%	47%	52%	1%		32%	42%	58%	0%
West	25.68	21%	55%	44%	1%		20%	50%	49%	1%
										
Total			52.36%	46.64%	1.00%		        48.24%	51.08%	0.42%
	      122.27	64.02	57.03	1.22		121.95	58.98	62.45	0.51
																			
EDUCATION	
      Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No HS	 4.89	4%	53%	46%	1%		4%	50%	49%	0%
HSGr 	26.90	22%	51%	48%	1%		22%	47%	52%	0%
Col 	37.90	31%	50%	49%	1%		32%	46%	54%	0%
ColGr	31.79	26%	52%	47%	1%		26%	46%	52%	1%
PostG	20.79	17%	59%	40%	1%		16%	55%	44%	1%
										
Total 		       52.39%	46.61%	1.00%		        47.82%	51.24%	0.42%
	      122.27	64.06	56.99	1.22		121.63	58.47	62.65	0.51
	
										
RACE AND GENDER	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
WMale   44.02	36%	43%	56%	1%		36%	37%	62%	0%
WFem	50.13	41%	48%	51%	1%		41%	44%	55%	0%
NWMale  12.23	10%	71%	28%	1%		10%	67%	30%	1%
NwFem	15.89	13%	78%	21%	1%		13%	75%	24%	1%
										
Total 			52.40%	46.60%	1.00%		        47.81%	50.99%	0.23%
 	      122.27	64.07	56.98	1.22		121.08	58.46	62.34	0.28
																			
AGE	
        Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
18-29 	20.79	17%	59%	40%	1%		17%	54%	45%	0%
30-44 	35.46	29%	50%	49%	1%		29%	46%	53%	1%
45-59 	36.68	30%	53%	46%	1%		30%	48%	51%	0%
60+ 	29.34	24%	50%	49%	1%		24%	46%	54%	0%
										
Total 			52.43%	46.57%	1.00%			47.96%	51.28%	0.29%
	       122.27	64.11	56.94	1.22		121.69	58.64	62.70	0.35
																			
INCOME	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
0-15K 	11.00	9%	66%	33%	1%		8%	63%	36%	0%
15-30 	18.34	15%	61%	38%	1%		15%	57%	42%	0%
30-50 	26.90	22%	54%	45%	1%		22%	50%	49%	0%
50-75 	28.12	23%	47%	52%	1%		23%	43%	56%	0%
75-100  15.89	13%	49%	50%	1%		14%	45%	55%	0%
100-150 13.45	11%	46%	53%	1%		11%	42%	57%	1%
150-200  4.89	4%	48%	51%	1%		4%	42%	58%	0%
200+ 	 3.67	3%	42%	57%	1%		3%	35%	63%	1%
										
Total 			52.39%	46.61%	1.00%			48.13%	51.02%	0.14%
	122.27	        64.06	56.99	1.22		121.40	58.85	62.38	0.17
																			
IDEOLOGY	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Lib 	26.90	22%	92%	7%	1%		21%	85%	13%	1%
Mod	55.02	45%	59%	40%	1%		45%	54%	45%	0%
Cons 	40.35	33%	17%	82%	1%		34%	15%	84%	0%
										
Total 			52.40%	46.60%	1.00%			47.25%	51.54%	0.21%
	      122.27	64.07	56.98	1.22		121.04	57.77	63.02	0.26
																			
RELIGION 
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Prot	64.80	53%	45%	54%	1%		53%	40%	59%	0%
Cath   33.01	27%	52%	47%	1%		27%	47%	52%	0%
Jewish	3.67	3%	77%	22%	1%		3%	74%	25%	0%
Other 	8.56	7%	74%	25%	1%		7%	74%	23%	1%
None 	12.23	10%	70%	29%	1%		10%	67%	31%	1%
										
Total 			52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			47.99%	50.77%	0.17%
	       122.27	64.04	57.00	1.22		120.96	58.68	62.07	0.21
																			
MILITARY	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Yes 	22.01	18%	45%	54%	1%		18%	41%	57%	0%
No 	100.26	82%	54%	45%	1%		82%	50%	49%	0%
										
Total 			52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			48.38%	50.44%	0.00%
	      122.27	64.04	57.00	1.22		120.82	59.15	61.67	0.00
									
	

___________________________________

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

http://www.indybay.org/olduploads/preelectoralpoll...


Using Pre-Election Polls to Check the Validity of the Final Exit Polls
By Tim Lohrentz
January 6, 2005

It is now well known that the final exit polls from the November 2 Presidential contest between George W.Bush and John Kerry were adjusted (weighted) once actual vote tallies arrived in order to match the
reported vote. This paper will first demonstrate that the weighting process was invalid. In other words, it is mathematically impossible to match the exit polls to the reported results of the popular vote. Then this
paper will compare exit poll results to pre-election poll trends over the last month leading up to the election and then provide some other clues regarding which states may have fraudulent results.

...

The fixed exit polls are trying to convince us of a Bush win based on a mathematical impossibility.Equally important, once you change the weighting of the poll, the whole thing, all the questions, need tobe re-weighted. This can not be explained by the margin of error. Once you do the re-weighting, thereported results will be outside the margin of error of the exit poll. In other words, the national popular vote total is impossible. It is far outside the possible margin of error of the national exit poll survey.

...

Finding the Clues – Where Did Fraud Occur?
The exit polls were manipulated to produce at least three results. One is to get the exit polls to match the "actual" Bush margin of victory in key battleground states, the second is to match results in non-key
states where the reported vote did not match the initial exit poll in order to boost Bush’s popular vote “mandate” and the third was to get the exit polls to show that there was not a major swing toward Kerry during the last 24 hours.

The latter was necessary because if Kerry really had been winning 60 or 65
percent of the undecideds on election day (the people who made up their mind on the day of election),then it would be really hard to explain how Bush wound up winning both the popular vote and the electoral college. Instead, the exit polls were fixed to state that nationally Kerry won the voters who decided on the day of election by a scant margin of 52 to 45. The exit pollsters had a major challenge though – if they fixed the exit polls in the same way for all the states, it would be too obvious that something was amiss.

The first question is how legitimate are the results in the key battleground states that Bush ended up winning. According to the exit polls, the reason that Kerry lost Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida is not that he didn't close well but rather that he was coming from so far behind. For instance, among voters who made up their minds in the last week, we see that Kerry was winning the undecided vote quite well – anywhere from a low of a 56 to 43 margin in Iowa to a high of a 59 to 38 margin in New
Mexico (Table 3).

Table 3:
Preference of Last Week Deciders in Key Battleground States Won by Bush.
% Decided in Last Week, Voted for Kerry, Voted for Bush

Iowa 14% 56% 43%
Nevada 15% 56% 42%
Florida 11% 57% 41%
Ohio 11% 60% 40%
New Mexico 17% 59% 38%

Clearly the problem was not the lack of a strong finish on Kerry’s part. Rather, according to the fixed exit polls, the problem was that Kerry was too far behind and had too much ground to make up. Of voters who made up their minds more than one month before the election, Kerry lost big: He was so far behind by the time of the first debate on September 30, he could not make up the difference. According to the exit poll data, his deficit one month out ranged from seven points down in New Mexico to 12 points down
in Florida.

Table 4:
Preference of Voters Who Decided On their Vote More Than One Month Before the Election, Key Battleground States Won by Bush

% Decided Over 30 Days Before Election, Voted for Kerry, Voted for Bush

Iowa 74% 45% 54%
Nevada 72% 45% 54%
Florida 77% 44% 56%
Ohio 78% 45% 55%
New Mexico 71% 53% 46%

It is important to note that these voters make up the bulk of voters, so the margin of error for this item in the exit poll won’t be much greater than the overall margin of error for the exit polls. We can conclude
that, because of his strong finish in these states, if Kerry had only been behind by 2 to 5 percentage points with one month to go, he would have won most, if not all, of these five states.

more.....

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Harris, a long-time Pollster of impeccable credentials said:

"Undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do
not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they
frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger".

Therefore, assuming that Kerry got 2/3 of the late undecided votes,
he was poised to be 51.5-47.5% winner. My election model forecast Kerry as a
winner by 51.3-47.7% based on final state pre-election polls and 51.1-47.9%
based on the final 18 national pre-election polls.

__________________________________________________________
Final Pre-election Harris Polls: Still Too Close to Call but Kerry Makes Modest
Gains

The final Harris Polls show Senator John Kerry making modest gains at the very
end of the campaign in an election that is still too close to call using
telephone methods of polling.. At the same time, the final Harris
Internet-based poll suggests that Kerry will win the White House today in a
narrow victory.

Harris Interactive’s final online survey of 5,508 likely voters shows a
three-point lead for Senator Kerry. The final Harris Interactive telephone
survey of 1,509 likely voters shows a one-point lead for President Bush. Both
surveys are based on interviews conducted between October 29, 2004 and November
1, 2004. The telephone survey is consistent with most of the other telephone
polls, which show the race virtually tied.

Both surveys suggest that Kerry has been making some gains over the course of
the past few days (see Harris Polls #83 

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=512, and #78
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=507. 

If this trend is real, then Kerry may actually do better than these numbers
suggest. In the past, presidential challengers tend to do better against an
incumbent President among the undecided voters during the last three days of
the elections, and that appears to be the case here. The reason: undecided
voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do not know the
challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they frequently
split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger.

About one percentage point of the current difference probably reflects the
inclusion in the online sample of people with cell phones but no landline (and
therefore not included in the telephone survey) who favor Kerry by a wide
margin. 

See The Harris Poll #86 released yesterday at
www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

TruthIsAll (1000+ posts)      Thu May-26-05 12:19 AM
Original message 
The Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff (2004) 
 Edited on Thu May-26-05 12:42 AM by TruthIsAll
August 12, 1951:
Brooklyn Dodgers: 73-38
New York Giants: 59-51 (13.5 games behind)

The Giants won 37 of their last 44 games.
The Dodgers won 23 of their last 43 games.

They tied for the pennant at 96-58.

The Giants won the playoff when Bobby Thomson (the Flying Scot) hit the Shot
Heard Round the World.

It was called the Miracle of Coogan's Bluff, named after the Harlem site on the
hill where the Polo Grounds once stood.

The Giants Won the Pennant!
The Giants Won the Pennant!
The Giants Won the Pennant!

The probability of this miracle was 1 in 737,984.

Compare that to the 1 in 19 trillion chance that 16 states would exceed the
margin of error - all in favor of Bush.

*****************************************************
Probability  of Giants winning at least 37 of 44 games
= 1 - probability (of winning at most 36 games)
= 1 - BINOMDIST (36,44,59/110,true) = 2.16806E-05 
P(G)= 1 in 46124 

Probability (Dodgers winning at most 23 of 43 games):
= BINOMDIST (23,43,73/111, TRUE)= 0.064448418
P(D)= 1 in 16

Joint Probability P(G) * P(D) = 1/16 * 1/46124 
= 1 in 737,984 
*****************************************************

The odds that the MoE would be exceeded in ANY given state for Bush is 1 in 40
(2.5%) at the 95% confidence level.

Probability (at least 16 states exceed the MoE for Bush): 
= 1-BINOMDIST(15,50, .025,TRUE)
= 5.24025E-14
= 1 in 19,083,049,268,519
 

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.