Fo a while now I have thought that there were two aspects of proof about the male/female vote analysis that give us advantages unlike any other analysis:

(1) Sex identity is hard to refute (much more solid than party ID or past voting record) and

(2) We have the independent census confirming the male/female 46/54 split (even Mytofsky would not mess with this split).

So if we can just nail down the male/female splits for Bush/Kerry, we could have some very, very, solid evidence. At 12:22pm, according to Mytofsky, women were voting 54/45 Kerry/Bush. Men were voting 45/52 Kerry/Bush. Then an hour later to make the poll coincide with the tabulation, Mytofsky took away 3% of the female Kerry margin to make the final female split 51/49 Kerry/Bush. He also added 3% to the male Bush margin to make the final male vote 42/55 Kerry/Bush.

But what if we can prove the 12:22 male/female splits were right after all?

I believe that if we can, we would have even more compelling evidence than using analyses like party ID or "how did you vote in 2000," etc. You don't face the arguments that people forgot who they voted for last time, or they claim they voted for a winner when they didn't, or they were registered Democrats who vote Republican -- all those arguments and their ilk are gone.

People remember their sex; they usually will not lie about it or even think about lying about it; furthermore, it is the one thing that pollsters can fairly easily verify by observation.

Plus, it is not as if they were using a small sample of 1,000 men and women -- they have 73,000 men and women who were polled -- and from hand-picked precincts which were designed to give the best overall view of the voter's mindset.

So, I can't resist. If we can prove the 12:22 male/female Kerry/Bush splits were right after all, rBr will have to be replaced with rtr -- the reluctant transvestite responder.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

I love it. These guys are due to be rather thoroughly embarrassed.

You are right. They are due.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

The crux of this analysis is so logical and easy to understand once you get underneath it.....

In order to flip the vote on a national scale, you either need magic or just plain math...

If Kerry was winning at 51/48 in the final days of the poll, all you really need to do to make that a 51/48 Bush victory is flip two of the key demographics....

On a nationwide scale, no weighting matters more except the gender weighting....voters are seperated across party lines by who is male and who is female....

If the first weighted average was at 54 female/45 male Kerry and 49 male/48 female Bush the final weighted average was flipped to be 51 female/48 male Kerry and 52 male/45 female Bush....


Which would mean they simply switched a cluster of votes from Bush who had carried the men and switched a huge stack of votes from Kerry, who carried the women because the GOP knew there was far more weight nationally in the women's vote than that of the men.....

Kerry's national average was at 54/45 split for the female and male vote....

It changed to 51/48 split in the ADJUSTED sample....

Which means the female vote subtracted 3% and the MALE vote ADDED 3%.....

Anything suspicious about that? Oh yes....read on.

We know about the CONSPICUOUS Kerry vote "switching"....

If you correlate the data you get a table that says something like this....

K<54 B>48

Meaning, SOMEHOW 3% of Kerry's female voters, changed into 3% of male voters for the incumbent aka Bush....

Which would make it seem OBVIOUS to me....from my analysis....

That around a million point 5 FEMALE voters had their votes switched to Bush(republican) and around 400,000 or less MALE voters had their votes switched to Kerry from Bush....

Double JEOPRADY.....To make the fraud appear "innocent" they switched votes across GENDER lines in both directions, but because Kerry had the advantage of the female vote they took away much more from Kerry than from Bush*!!!!!!

If you analyze this by swing state, and by cluster.....you got the answer.

In areas where 12 to 1 vote switching happened, it was swing states.....where the female vote is "more represented". Therefore its likely that the 9 to 1 or 12 to 1 odds ARE female voters compared to male voters.....In each area a certain amount of male votes are switched to Kerry, while a huge number of female votes switch to Bush....

Its a math program....like a automatic sampling system if you will....its alot like an exit poll, inside the GEMS machine...and it was written by guys like Clint Curtis and Jeffrey Dean..

Think about the overall picture.....If the GOP majority knows that the advantage in the election lies with the female voters, as they figured out around 60% of undecideds are females breaking for the challenger, that's where they are most likely to steal the pot....

So they knew Kerry would carry that vote and that's where they made the vote-switch so it was not conspicuous....
In fact if you notice just three days after, someone had NEP going out and saying the female vote was "over sampled" and was a "mistake" does anyone see what THAT hidden message means now? Somebody's gotta do a swing-state breakdown of the female voters(republican and minority) AGAINST the exit polls, and voila you have your smoking knock-out powder keg......

ATS

n/t

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

I almost confused myself on that one, caught it in time though.

Another way to look at it.....is the female and male votes simply switched places to make it look totally foolproof.

The "female votes" were switched into "male votes" for the bush side while some of those same "male votes" were switched to kerry's column, making it appear nothing had happened.

"Female voters" who were confirmed Kerry's advantage, vanished and became Bush's victory margin.

The way the numbers add up also indicate, Bush's "female voters" crossed gender lines and became Kerry's male voters.

So the GOP basically balked and said, "We can't get anywhere with the men since there's not enough of them here willing to vote for Bush....but the Women, 60% of them are undecideds....Its in the bag."

Switched a small 3% of Bush's hideous female vote to Kerry's male column, and stole all 3% of the female votes from Kerry at the same time. Bush wins, 1000 out of 1000 simulations.

ANYWAY YOU SLICE IT, BUSH WINS. ITS CALLED THE FINAL SOLUTION.

They KNEW that no matter how many ways investigators would look at the fraud, they would never realize the gender switch is what caused an indestructible Bush win.

"The way the numbers add up also indicate, Bush's "female voters" crossed gender lines and became Kerry's male voters."

Females cross dressing on election day. Who would have guessed?

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

Now, with regard to this phrase, "People remember their sex"...umm...don't you mean "gender." I think there is some of what you referred to that people may want to forget

Obrador for President Site

I can only say that if you have had forgetable experiences you have my condolences.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

There was absolutely NO WAY that OTOH could respond coherently to this.
It totally destroyed their exteremely implausible "false recall"
excuse.

How could he argue that these demographics forgot who they were?  
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x390193#390734

What about all these other groupings?
What did they forget or lie about?

Note the OTOH response to this at the bottom...

National Exit Poll

Time Respondents
7:33pm 11027 
12:22am 13047 ""
1:25pm  13660 ""

        Bush	Kerry	Nader

We discussed this one...

Voted in 2000			
11027	46.96%	50.25%	1.03%
13047	47.62%	51.41%	0.97%
13660	51.11%	48.48%	0.41%

VOTED 2000

	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	41%	57%	2%
Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%
Bush	41%	90%	10%	0%
Other	3%	21%	71%	8%
	100%	47.62%	51.41%	0.97%
	122.26	58.22	62.85	1.19
______________________________________

Now would you recall how you analyzed these?

Gender			
11027	47.76%	50.78%	1.00%
13047	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%
13660	51.22%	47.78%	0.00%
			
Education			
11027	48.18%	50.34%	1.48%
13047	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%
13660	51.24%	47.82%	0.42%
			
Race/Gender			
11027	47.96%	51.04%	1.00%
13047	47.86%	50.94%	1.00%
13660	50.99%	47.81%	0.23%
			
Age			
11027	48.17%	50.53%	1.30%
13047	48.17%	50.53%	1.00%
13660	51.28%	47.96%	0.29%
			
Income			
11027	47.54%	51.01%	1.45%
13047	47.54%	51.01%	0.94%
13660	51.02%	48.13%	0.11%
			
			
Ideology			
11027	48.60%	50.07%	1.00%
13047	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%
13660	50.83%	47.95%	0.22%
			
			
Religion			
11027	47.90%	50.85%	1.25%
13047	47.90%	50.85%	1.18%
13660	50.77%	47.99%	0.17%
			
Military			
11027	47.62%	51.20%	1.18%
13047	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%
13660	50.44%	48.38%	1.00%
			
When Decided			
11027	48.04%	51.42%	0.54%
13047	47.95%	51.23%	0.54%
13660	51.22%	47.50%	0.19%
			
Region			
11027	47.73%	50.84%	1.00%
13047	47.95%	50.84%	1.00%
13660	51.08%	48.24%	0.42%
			
			
Party ID			
11027	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%
13047	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
13660	49.69%	49.15%	0.27%
			
			
Average			
11027	47.89%	50.71%	1.12%
13047	47.90%	50.80%	0.98%
13660	50.91%	48.10%	0.31%

______________________________________

Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents				

GENDER	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Male 	46%	52%	47%	1%
Fem 	54%	45%	54%	1%
	100%	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%
					
______________________________________
EDUCATION				
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
NoHS	4%	47%	52%	1%
HSGr 	22%	48%	51%	1%
Col 	31%	51%	47%	1%
ColGr	26%	50%	48%	1%
Postg	17%	40%	58%	2%
	100%	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%
					
				
______________________________________
RACE AND GENDER
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
WM 	36%	58%	41%	1%
WF 	41%	52%	47%	1%
NWM 	10%	28%	69%	1%
NWF 	13%	22%	77%	1%
	100%	47.86%	50.94%	1.00%
					
______________________________________
AGE	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
18-29	17%	43%	56%	1%
30-44	27%	50%	49%	1%
45-59	30%	47%	51%	1%
60+ 	26%	51%	48%	1%
	100%	48.17%	50.53%	1.00%
	
______________________________________
INCOME	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
0-15K 	9%	33%	66%	1%
15-30 	15%	39%	59%	1%
30-50 	22%	47%	52%	1%
50-75 	23%	53%	45%	1%
75-100  13%	50%	49%	0%
100-150 11%	53%	45%	2%
150-200 4%	53%	47%	0%
 200+ 	3%	58%	41%	1%
      	100%	47.54%	51.01%	0.94%
					
______________________________________
IDEOL	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Lib 	22%	12%	86%	1%
Mod 	45%	41%	57%	1%
Cons 	33%	82%	16%	1%
	100%	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%
	
______________________________________
RELIG	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Prot	53%	56%	43%	1%
Cath 	27%	49%	50%	1%
Jew	3%	23%	77%	0%
Other	7%	20%	75%	4%
None 	10%	29%	70%	1%
	100%	47.90%	50.85%	1.18%
					
______________________________________
MILIT	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Yes 	18%	55%	43%	1%
No 	82%	46%	53%	1%
	100%	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%
	
______________________________________
DECIDED	
         Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Today 	6%	40%	53%	5%
3Days 	3%	41%	53%	4%
Week   2%	51%	48%	1%
Month 	10%	38%	60%	1%
Before79%	50%	50%	0%
	100%	47.95%	51.23%	0.54%
				
				
______________________________________
REG  Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
East	22%	41%	58%	1%
Midw	26%	49%	50%	1%
South	31%	54%	45%	1%
West	21%	45%	53%	1%
	100%	47.95%	50.84%	1.00%
				
______________________________________
PARTY	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem 	38%	9%	90%	1%
Rep 	35%	92%	7%	0%
Ind	27%	45%	52%	2%
	100%	47.77%	50.69%	0.92


The OTOH response:
sorry, is there a question here? 
 Basic line of analysis: the exit polls diverged from the official count; the
exit polls were weighted to match the official count; we are looking to see
whether anything in the weighted results is screamingly unlikely -- and, if so,
whether that evinces fraud, or just an artifact of weighting.

The 43/37 recalled-vote split seemed screamingly unlikely, but I don't think it
is, because of the extensive evidence from multiple sources of misremembered
votes retrospectively favoring incumbents in general (although not in all cases
-- e.g. Nixon) and W. in particular. It was interesting, I learned something
from it, and I hope that someday you will too.

Is there something else in here that you consider screamingly unlikely?
 
 Alert 

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents				

GENDER	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Male 	46%	52%	47%	1%
Fem 	54%	45%	54%	1%
	100%	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%


					
Nov.  3, ______am,  73,000 respondents

GENDER  Mix     Bush    Kerry    Nader
Male    _____   _____   _______  _____
Female  _____   _____   _______  _____

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

The state and NEP (1:25pm Nov 3) exits had to be fixed after 12:22am to match the vote. Otherwise people would think that Kerry won.

ALL STATE AND NATIONAL EXIT POLLS HAD TO MATCH TO THE VOTE.

Try to Google for the FINAL bogus state by state (CNN).

Here's the pristine 12:22am state vs. NEP (13047) comparison:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

non-weighted data for this?

STATE EXIT POLL
73607 RESPONDENTS
12:22am

STATE EXIT POLL REGIONAL SUMMARY
Region Kerry Exit Vote/ Kerry
State Pct Size Exit Exit

EAST 59.60% 16261 165.1% 9691
MIDW 50.28% 19377 158.3% 9742
SOUTH 43.75% 20332 192.0% 8895
WEST 51.81% 17637 138.9% 9137

TOTAL 50.90% 73607 164.5% 37466

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

This is definitely the smoking pot showing the gender cross-overs are impossible and direct evidence of GEMS fraud. So who has the original un-weighted results?

It needs to be cross compared. Someone could run with that, anyone could run with it, and Mitofsky would be left braindead and washed out of exscuses.

Whether the unweighted male/female results from the states even exist?

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me