I had a major heart attack while still on the computer.

Without insurance I would not be here today. I would have had emergency bypass
surgery all right, but would not have been allowed to spend the next four
months in TWO hospitals recovering from congestive heart failure.

Michael Moore, thanks for SICKO and everything else you've done. Your next
project should be Election Fraud. 
____________________________________________________________________

This is an analysis of the National Exit Poll time line (four snapshots) from
3:59pm on Nov.2 to the 2:05pm Final on Nov.3. 

National vote shares are calculated based on the polling results at each time
line. The first set depicts the actual (mathematically impossible) weights. The
second uses adjusted, plausible weights, assuming a 95% turnout for Gore, Bush
and Other. 

Note the following:
1. Kerry vote shares of returning 2000 voters is fairly constant throughout the
time line.

2. Kerry vote shares of those who did not vote in 2000 declines from 62% at
3:39pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% at the 2:05pm Final.

3. Bush/Gore weights changed by 2% in the Final (from 41/39% to 43/37%). 
Prior to the Final, the weights were fairly constant (and also impossible). 

4. Based on the actual (mathematically impossible) weights, Kerry was the
winner by 4-5 million votes (51-48%) in all time lines prior to the Final,
which he lost by 3 million (51-48%).

5. Based on adjusted, plausible NEP weights, Kerry was the winner by 7-9
million votes (52.5%-46.5%) in the earlier time lines, and by 3 million in the
Final (51-48%).

6. The probability of the national vote deviating from earlier time lines to
the Final is more and more remote (from 1 in thousands to 1 in trillions) as
the number of respondents increase from 8349 to 13047.

7. A 20% exit poll cluster effect was applied in the calculation of the Margin
of Error for the probability calculations.
_______________________________________________________________________

Time Line Summary

NEP	Sample 1.2*	Actual.......Prob.... Adjusted....Prob
Time	Size	MoE	Kpct	(mm)	1 in	Kpct   (mm)	1 in
3:59pm	8349	1.29%	51.01%	4.96	17k	53.01%	9.39	397 bn
7:38pm	11027	1.12%	50.90%	4.66	88k	52.47%	8.17	695 bn
12:22am	13047	1.03%	51.41%	4.63	81mm	52.57%	7.52	281 tr
2:05pm	13660	1.01%	48.48%	-3.22	na	51.17%	3.36	na


____________________________________________________________________________

	National Exit Poll Time Line (actual)

								
8349 respondents								
3:59pm			Vote shares 		Votes (in millions)		
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	18.34	15%	62%	37%	1%	11.37	6.79	0.18
Gore	47.69	39%	91%	8%	1%	43.39	3.81	0.48
Bush	51.35	42%	9%	90%	0%	4.62	46.22	0.00
Other	4.89	4%	61%	12%	16%	2.98	0.59	0.78
								
Total 	122.27	100%	51.01%	46.95%	1.18%	62.37	57.41	1.44

11027 respondents								
7:38pm								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	20.79	17%	59%	39%	1%	12.26	8.11	0.21
Gore	46.46	38%	91%	8%	1%	42.28	3.72	0.46
Bush	50.13	41%	9%	90%	0%	4.51	45.12	0.00
Other	4.89	4%	65%	13%	16%	3.18	0.64	0.78
								
Total 	122.27	100%	50.90%	47.09%	1.19%	62.24	57.58	1.46

13047 respondents								
12:22am								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	20.79	17%	57%	41%	2%	11.85	8.52	0.42
Gore	47.69	39%	91%	8%	1%	43.39	3.81	0.48
Bush	50.13	41%	10%	90%	0%	5.01	45.12	0.00
Other	3.67	3%	71%	21%	8%	2.60	0.77	0.29
								
Total 	122.27	100%	51.41%	47.62%	0.97%	62.86	58.22	1.19

13660 respondents								
2:05pm		FINAL						
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	20.79	17%	54%	45%	1%	11.22	9.35	0.21
Gore	45.24	37%	90%	10%	0%	40.72	4.52	0.00
Bush	52.58	43%	9%	91%	0%	4.73	47.84	0.00
Other	3.67	3%	71%	21%	8%	2.60	0.77	0.29
								
Total 	122.27	100%	48.48%	51.11%	0.41%	59.28	62.49	0.50

____________________________________________________________________


	National Exit Poll Time Line							
	(2000 voter weights adjusted to plausible mix)
	Assume 95% turnout of 2000 voters							
								
8349 respondents								
3:59pm								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	62%	37%	1%	16.26	9.70	0.26
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	0%	42.55	3.74	0.00
Bush	46.25	37.83%	9%	90%	0%	4.16	41.63	0.00
Other	3.04	2.49%	61%	12%	16%	1.86	0.37	0.49
								
Total 	122.27	100%	53.01%	45.34%	0.61%	64.82	55.44	0.75

11027 respondents								
7:38pm								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	59%	39%	1%	15.47	10.23	0.26
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	1%	42.55	3.74	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	9%	90%	0%	4.16	41.63	0.00
Other	3.04	2.49%	65%	13%	16%	1.98	0.40	0.49
								
Total 	122.27	100%	52.47%	45.79%	1.00%	64.16	55.99	1.22

13047 respondents								
12:22am								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	57%	41%	2%	14.95	10.75	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	1%	42.55	3.74	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	10%	90%	0%	4.63	41.63	0.00
Other	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.27	100%	52.57%	46.42%	1.01%	64.28	56.76	1.24

13660 respondents								
2:05pm								
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	54%	45%	1%	14.16	11.80	0.26
Gore	46.75	38.24%	90%	10%	0%	42.08	4.68	0.00
Bush	46.25	37.83%	9%	91%	0%	4.16	42.09	0.00
Other	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.27	100%	51.17%	48.42%	0.41%	62.56	59.20	0.51

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

When that figure "gets real" at 38%-37% Gore-Bush, we get an entirely
new result.

The just a 3 million vote victory for Kerry but a 6 million vote shit.

Who to they thin they are kidding.

See this regarding the need to discredit the NEPS.  This article will amaze
you.

9. Wash. DC: Republican Media Guy Blasts Mitofsky in “The Hill”
	

”What’s the frequency Kenneth?” I feel like Dan must have felt when approached
by some strange dude in NYC and asked this question. What is the deal here?
Didn’t Mitofsky fix the final poll to make it look like Bush won (1:00 p.m.
11/03/04)? Didn’t he have the “Mitofsky Sucks” tour where they had people going
around saying that his stats and methods were all wrong, all to help Bush?
Wonder what little gem may be coming out form the National and State Exit
Polls?

Great post.  Should we tune into the right channel Friday?

[h3]More Mitofsky mischief

http://www.hillnews.com/thehill/export/TheHill/Comment/Pollsters/DavidHill/111704.html


In May 2003, I suggested in this space that the exit polls would need more than
a makeover. I also questioned the wisdom of putting veteran exit pollster Warren
Mitofsky in charge.

Shortly thereafter, I received a telephone call from Mitofsky, who, naturally,
expressed his disagreement with my opinions. Later in the year, I heard from
Mitofsky again when I criticized his exit polls in the California gubernatorial
recall election.

I’ll say this for him: Mitofsky is a great flack. And he must be a great
salesman.

Anyone who can talk the networks into giving him $10 million for the mess he
produced is a charmer.

(He goes on to say that Mitofsky and Lenski (the EM principal) do a good
cop-bad cop routine on critics of the exit polls. This is no way for Republican
political types to treat Mitofsky and Lenski, guys who really came through for
them in 2004 ;)
Corporate America controls the media and we get manufactured news. Corporate
America now controls the voting machines

Obrador for President Site

[b]They're still running things.[/b]
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v474/autorank/haveaniceday.gif

Obrador for President Site

get well soon so I can get back to bothering and pestering you with really
stupid questions okay. . . .?
(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((TIA)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

Links that don't work, reversed numbers, etc.

I promise to learn Excel in detail, at least at your level, and enroll in the
applied mathematics program at Oxford this Fall!

Stella, you game on the Oxford thing?

Obrador for President Site

that's so-o-o last millennial hon.  Aaaaaand I don't do excel ever.  Simply not
that statistical.  That's how I really annoyed our good friend TIA.  Bless his
soul.  

Still praying for him. 

He thought the last two were two of his best.  

Oxford huh, a smartie!  Figgers...

Obrador for President Site

I WAS TRANSPORTED TO THE HOSPITAL FOR MAJOR HEART SURGERY...
THREE MONTHS OF HELL.

COULDN'T BREATHE NORMALLY (NEEDED VENTILATOR).
COULDN'T TALK (NEEDED A TRACHE).
COULDN'T EAT (ONLY THROUGH A TUBE).
COULDN'T WRITE (HANDS TREMBLED AND WEAK).
COULDN'T STAND UP OR WALK (MUSCLES ATROPHIED).

NOW I CAN DO ALL OF THE ABOVE.

DON'T TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED.
LIKE GETTING OUT OF BED,
PUTTING YOUR SOCKS ON, 
SAYING GOOD MORNING TO YOUR SPOUSE,
HAVING BREAKFAST, 
GOING TO THE BATHROOM.
AND...LAST BUT NOT LEAST...POSTING ON A FORUM.

NGU.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

what do all the numbers mean?  Do you think that Gore and Kerry won? 

peace and low stress

.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.