Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) by 51-48%. In the 2:05pm Final
NEP, weights AND vote shares were adjusted to MATCH the vote count. Bush won
the Final, 51-48%. That the Final NEP 43% Bush/37% Gore weights are
MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE is beyond dispute.

Change to PLAUSIBLE weights in the Final and Kerry is the 51-48% winner - EVEN
ASSUMING THE SAME VOTE SHARES. Therefore, Kerry MUST HAVE DONE EVEN BETTER than
51-48%, since his 12:22AM vote shares were SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED in the Final.

To believe the Final NEP, you must also believe:

1) That 52.57mm (43% of 122.3mm), or 108% of the 48.7mm Bush 2000 voters still
living, turned out in 2004 - FOUR MILLION more Bush 2000 voters than were
ALIVE. FOUR MILLION PHANTON BUSH 2000 VOTERS.

IF we assume a PLAUSIBLE 95% Bush 2000 voter turnout (46.25mm, or 37.83% of
122.3mm), THEN the Final NEP OVERSTATED Bush voter turnout by 6.3 MILLION.
 
2) On the other hand, the NEP apparently UNDERSTATED Gore 2000 voter turnout.
The 37% weighting means that 45.24mm voted in 2004, or JUST 92% of the 49.2mm
still living. So 8% stayed home? Not likely.

IF we assume PLAUSIBLE 95% Gore 2000 voter turnout (46.75mm or 38.24% of
122.3mm), THEN the Final NEP UNDERSTATED Gore voter turnout by 1.5 MILLION.

___________________________________________________________________


FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL 
2:05PM, 13660 RESPONDENTS

HOW VOTED IN 2000
(Impossible 43%/37% weights)

BUSH WINS: 62.5-59.3mm (51.1%-48.5%)

Voted..2004............Vote Share..........Votes (mm)
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	20.79	17%	54%	45%	1%	11.22	9.35	0.21
Gore	45.24	37%	90%	10%	0%	40.72	4.52	0.00
Bush	52.57	43%	9%	91%	0%	4.73	47.84	0.00
Nader	3.67	3%	71%	21%	8%	2.60	0.77	0.29
								
Total 	122.27	100%	48.48%	51.11%	0.41%	59.28	62.49	0.50

_________________________________________________________________


FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL 
2:05PM, 13660 RESPONDENTS

HOW VOTED IN 2000
(Adjusted for plausible weights)

MAXIMUM WEIGHTS (100% turnout): 40.25% Gore/39.82% Bush
PLAUSIBLE WEIGHTS (95% turnout): 38.24% Gore/37.83% Bush
NO CHANGE in vote shares.

KERRY WINS: 62.6-59.2mm (51.2%-48.4%)

Voted..2004............Vote Share...........Votes (mm)
2000	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	54%	45%	1%	14.16	11.80	0.26
Gore	46.75	38.24%	90%	10%	0%	42.08	4.68	0.00
Bush	46.25	37.83%	9%	91%	0%	4.16	42.09	0.00
Nader	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.27	100%	51.17%	48.42%	0.41%	62.56	59.20	0.51

_________________________________________________________________
 
To analyze the NEP, start with the FACTS:
a) 2004 vote V2004 = 122.3mm 
b) 2000 vote V2000 = 104.8mm
c) U.S. annual death rate  = 0.87% (3.5% over four years)

Then we can proceed to:
1. Approximate the number of 2000 voters still alive in 2004.
   V2000A = V2000 * (1-.035)= 104.8*.965 = 101.1mm

2. Estimate the percentage of V2000A who voted in 2004.
   Assume PV2004 = 95%

3. Calculate the number of 2000 voters who turned out in 2004: 
   V2K2004 = PV2004 * V2000A = 101.1 * .95 = 96.1mm

4. Calculate the number of 2004 voters who Did Not Vote in 2000. 
   DNV2000 = V2004 - V2K2004 = 122.3mm - 96.1mm = 26.2mm
   DNV2000 = NEW registered and OTHERS who did not vote in 2000.

5. Analyze the NEP time line:
   3:59pm: 8349 respondents 
   7:38pm: 11027 "
  12:22am: 13047 "

6. Calculate Kerry and Bush vote shares of DNV2000, Gore, Bush and Nader. 

7. Calculate the national vote share: Kerry led 51-48% at each time line.

8. The exit pollsters were left with a choice:
a) Tell the Truth: 
   Kerry won the National Exit Poll.
   The exit poll/vote discrepancy was BEYOND the 1% Margin of Error.
   The numbers speak for themselves.

b) Change the weights and/or vote shares to MATCH THE VOTE COUNT. 
    Even knowing that:
   -the weights were mathematically IMPOSSIBLE; 
   -the 3% vote discrepancy was TRIPLE the 1% MoE; 
   -the PROBABILITY of the discrepancy is 1 in 488 million.

9. The exit pollsters chose (b). 
They changed the weights AND the vote shares. 
The Final 2:05pm NEP of 13,660 respondents REVERSED the 12:22am NEP of 13,047
from Kerry 51-48% to Bush 51-48%.

10. The pollsters had an explanation for the discrepancy. Well, sort of. 
It was due to Kerry voters responding at a 56/50 ratio to Bush voters. The
Reluctant Bush Responder (rBr)

The weighted average exit poll response rate was 53%. Since Bush won just 48%
of exit poll responders, it implied that he won more than 54% of the
non-responding 47%. But there was a problem. The rBr hypothesis was
incompatible with the 43% Bush/37% Gore weights. So the naysayers had to come
up with another explanation. 

11. The 43/37% weighting mix was due to "False Recall".
FOUR MILLION Gore voters (8%) FORGOT THAT THEY VOTED FOR GORE.
THEY FORGOT JUST FOUR YEARS LATER.

So they told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush. 
And no, Bush 2000 voters DID NOT FORGET.
A ridiculous explanation, but it's a moot point. 

It doesn't MATTER who Gore or Bush voters SAID they voted for or whether they
forgot or lied.

Let's review the facts:
Fact 1: 43% of 122.3mm is 52.57mm. 
Fact 2: 48.7mm Bush 2000 voters were alive in 2004.
Fact 3: 48.7/122.3 = 39.8%. NOT 43%.
Fact 4: The Final Exit Poll inflated the Bush vote by 4 million. 

SO WHO THE EXIT POLL RESPONDENTS SAID THEY VOTED FOR IN 2000 IS IRRELEVANT. 
THE MAXIMUM NUMBER (MAX) OF 2000 VOTERS IN 2004 IS FIXED BY THE FORMULA: 
MAX =  TOTAL VOTED IN 2000 - TOTAL DIED. 
NOTHING CAN CHANGE THAT FACT. 

THE 2000 VOTE COUNT IS INDEPENDENT OF 2004 EXIT POLL SAMPLING. 
IT'S THE BASIS FOR DETERMINATION OF PLAUSIBLE EXIT POLL "WEIGHTS".

PRELIMINARY "GROSS" WEIGHTS ARE BASED ON THE 2000 VOTE COUNT. THESE
ARE "MAXIMUM" WEIGHTS WHICH CANNOT BE EXCEEDED - BY DEFINITION.

TURNOUT PERCENTAGES OF GORE, BUSH AND NADER 2000 VOTERS MUST BE ESTIMATED TO
DETERMINE "NET" WEIGHTS FOR CALCULATING NATIONAL VOTE SHARES. 



quere mas?

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Unless you have a video of them fixing the voting machines, tabulators, etc.

Amazing, truly.  

Where are the flaws? In fact there are no openings for criticism of a
substantive nature.

Thanks!!!!!

Obrador for President Site

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/BogusWeights.htm

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Did it really take them until 2:50 PM the next day to put out the final numbers?

Kathy Dopp
US Count Votes, President
http://electionarchive.org

I initially thought it was an hour later but I have been corrected by TIA and
others on this many times.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

Thank you.

Obrador for President Site

	:vacuum:  and away...

Obrador for President Site

.

The Failure to Defend the Skies on 9/11
By Paul Thompson
http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/essay.jsp?artic...