This is an analysis of Bush vote shares required in the four 12:22am National
Exit Poll "How Voted in 2000" categories (holding the other three to
their actual exit poll shares) in order to:
a) WIN the 62-59 mm recorded vote margin  
b) TIE Kerry in the popular vote.

Assume the following:
1) 95% equal turnout of Gore, Bush and Nader 2000 voters.
2) 2% MoE for each category sub-sample.
____________________________________________________________

To WIN by 3 mm votes, Bush's share had to increase from:

1- 41% to 61% (10x MoE) for New voters (did not vote in 2000)
Prob = Virtually Zero

2- 8% to 19.3% (6x MoE) for Gore voters  
Prob = Virtually Zero 

3- 90% to 100% (5x MoE) for Bush voters (still insufficient)
_____________________________________________________________

To TIE Kerry in the popular vote, Bush's share had to increase from:

1- 41% to 55% for New voters (7x MoE)
Prob = Virtually Zero 

2- 8% to 16% for Gore voters (4x MoE)
Prob = NORMDIST(0.5, 0.531, 0.01/1.96, TRUE)
Prob = 2.22E-15 or 1 in 450 trillion
 
3- 90% to 98% for Bush voters (4x MoE)
Prob = 1 in 450 trillion

______________________________________________________________

	    NATIONAL EXIT POLL 							
	Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 respondents							
								

HOW VOTED IN 2000

Base Case Scenario (no change): Kerry wins by 7.5 mm votes			

			Percentage			Votes		
	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other

No	26.22	21.44%	57%	41%	2%	14.95	10.75	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	1%	42.55	3.74	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	10%	90%	0%	4.63	41.63	0.00
Nader	 3.04  2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total	122.27  100%	52.57%	46.42%	1.01%	64.28	56.76	1.24

The Bush 46.42% national share is equivalent to 46.9% of the 2-party vote.

Given Bush's 46.9% 2-party exit poll share, the probability of 
him winning 50% of the 2-party vote is:

Prob = NORMDIST(.469, 0.5, 0.01/1.96,TRUE)
Prob = 1 in 1,617,047,591
								
______________________________________________________________
								
								
BUSH VOTE SHARES REQUIRED TO ACHIEVE THE RECORDED 62-59 MILLION VOTE
===========================================================								
Scenario 2:	
Bush needed 61% of those who did not vote in 2000.

	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	37%	61%	2%	9.70	15.99	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	1%	42.55	3.74	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	10%	90%	0%	4.63	41.63	0.00
Nader	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.27	100%	48.28%	50.71%	1.01%	59.03	62.00	1.24

______________________________________________________________

Scenario 3:	
He needed 19.3% of Gore voters.

	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	57%	41%	2%	14.95	10.75	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	79.7%	19.3%	1%	37.26	9.02	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	10%	90%	0%	4.63	41.63	0.00
Nader	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.27	100%	48.25%	50.74%	1.01%	58.99	62.04	1.24

______________________________________________________________


Scenario 4: 
100% of Bush2000 voters is insufficient (too low by 0.60 mm)
to provide the 3mm Bush margin.

	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	57%	41%	2%	14.95	10.75	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	1%	42.55	3.74	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	0%	100%	0%	0.00	46.25	0.00
Nader	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8.0%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.27	100%	48.79%	50.20%	1.01%	59.65	61.38	1.24
								
______________________________________________________________


Scenario 5:	
100% of Nader voters is insufficient (too low by 2.8 mm)

			Percentage			Votes		
	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	57%	41%	2%	14.95	10.75	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	1%	42.55	3.74	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	10%	90%	0%	4.63	41.63	0.00
Nader	3.04	2.49%	0%	100%	0%	0.00	3.04	0.00
								
Total 	122.27	100%	50.80%	48.39%	0.81%	62.12	59.16	0.99

______________________________________________________________


BUSH VOTE SHARES REQUIRED TO TIE KERRY AT 49.5% (60.5MM VOTES)
===========================================================								

Scenario 6:	
He needed 55.5% of those who did not vote.

			Percentage			Votes		
	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	42.5%	55.5%	2%	11.14	14.55	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	1%	42.55	3.74	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	10%	90%	0%	4.63	41.63	0.00
Nader	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.27	100%	49.46%	49.53%	1.01%	60.47	60.56	1.24

______________________________________________________________

Scenario 7:	
He needed 16% of Gore voters.

	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	57%	41%	2%	14.95	10.75	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	83%	16%	1%	38.80	7.48	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	10%	90%	0%	4.63	41.63	0.00
Nader	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.27	100%	49.51%	49.48%	1.01%	60.54	60.50	1.24

______________________________________________________________


Scenario 8: 
He needed 98% of Bush voters.

	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	57%	41%	2%	14.95	10.75	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	1%	42.55	3.74	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	2%	98%	0%	0.93	45.33	0.00
Nader	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
								
Total 	122.27	100%	49.54%	49.45%	1.01%	60.58	60.46	1.24

______________________________________________________________


Scenario 9:
100% of Nader voters is insufficient (too low by 1.4mm) to tie Kerry.

	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	57%	41%	2%	14.95	10.75	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	91%	8%	1%	42.55	3.74	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	10%	90%	0%	4.63	41.63	0.00
Nader	3.04	2.49%	0%	100%	0%	0.00	3.04	0.00
								
Total 	122.27	100%	50.80%	48.39%	0.81%	62.12	59.16	0.99
								
______________________________________________________________


AN IMPLAUSIBLE BUSH WIN SCENARIO
================================

HOW MUCH DID BUSH 2004 VOTE SHARES HAVE TO INCREASE AMONG NEW, GORE 
AND BUSH 2000 VOTERS IN ORDER TO MATCH HIS 62-59MM VOTE MARGIN?
FOR THIS SCENARIO, WE INCREASE VOTE SHARES IN EACH CATEGORY WITHOUT HOLDING THE
OTHERS CONSTANT.

WHAT ARE THE PROBABILITIES OF EACH CATEGORY PERCENTAGE INCREASE?
WHAT IS THE JOINT PROBABILITY OF THE TOTAL INCREASE?

VOTED IN 2000

	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	26.22	21.44%	51%	47%	2%	13.37	12.32	0.52
Gore	46.75	38.24%	87%	12%	1%	40.68	5.61	0.47
Bush	46.25	37.83%	6%	94%	0%	2.78	43.48	0.00
Nader	3.04	2.49%	71%	21%	8%	2.16	0.64	0.24
Total 	122.27	100%	48.24%	50.75%	1.01%	58.98	62.05	1.24

Calculating the probabilities for each category increase in vote share:

1) New  - 41% to 47% (3x MoE)
Prob = NORMDIST(0.41, 0.47, 0.02/1.96, TRUE)
Prob = 1 in 485,887,839

2) Gore -  8% to 12% (2x MoE)
Prob = NORMDIST(0.08, 0.12, 0.02/1.96, TRUE)
Prob = 1 in 22,577

3) Bush - 90% to 94% (2x MoE)
Prob = NORMDIST(0.9, 0.94, 0.02/1.96, TRUE)
Prob = 1 in 22,577

4) Nader- no change

Calculate the Joint Probability of (1),(2) and (3):
Prob = p1*p2*p3 = (1/486,887,839) * (1/22,577) * (1/22,577)

= 4.02938E-18
= 1 in 248,176,921,613,882,000
= 1 in 248 QUADRILLION!

__________________________________________________


quere mas?

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

There are those who ask for 'incontrovertible  proof' or 'real evidence.'  

Those lines are reaching the point of near absurdity.  Never mind that you
don't get "incontrovertible evidence" even in court.  In fact,
philosophically, there is always one answer that renders all evidence
controvertible:  "What if there is some data of which we're not
aware?"

Since some who ask for incontrovertible evidence are also among those who beg
the question with the hidden data (which appears in different forms then
disappears when demolished), we know what the rhetorical approach is: 
Solipsism with a heavy dose of Sophistry (or it's variation, annoying
Sophomoric chatter).

Great post.

Obrador for President Site

Let's try to get a discussion going...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.