INTRODUCTION

This analysis determines Kerry/Bush vote percentages required in all the
12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) demographic categories to match the
"How Voted in 2000" (V2k) demographic. 

Assuming 98% turnout of Gore and Bush 2000 voters STILL ALIVE, the V2k
weightings were changed from 41% Bush/ 39% Gore to 39.02% Bush/ 39.45% Gore.
Using these revised weights, Kerry won the V2k demographic by 64-57 million
while his vote share increased a full percentage point from 51.4% to 52.4%. 

The goal was to derive Kerry vote shares so as to match the 64 million
total by adjusting his 12:22am NEP vote shares. Note that ONLY V2k weights
were revised; all others were left unchanged.

A 98% turnout was used since the assumption is that virtually all 2000 voters
returned to the polls. The key point is that it's an equal percentage turnout
of Gore and Bush voters. A lower turnout of 95% would mean there were 3%
additional voters who did not vote (DNV) in 2000. The lower the turnout
percentage, the higher the number of new voters - which increases Kerry's
margin, since he got 57% of DNV, according to the 12:28am exit poll. 


THE SMOKING GUN

Naysayers who argue that the exit polls had a pro-Kerry bias due to
reluctant Bush voters, forgetful Gore voters or both, have failed to
acknowledge one basic, irrefutable fact: historic 2000 voting data proves
that the weights (43% Bush/ 37% Gore) used in the 1:25 pm Final National
Exit poll were impossible. It should be obvious that all other Final NEP
demographic categories which were forced to match the recorded national
vote must be impossible, as well. 

Not coincidentally, the final NEP was the only timeline which was matched
to the recorded national vote. All earlier timelines show that Kerry won.

Naysayers consistently question the "assumptions" of those who
seek to objectively analyze available polling data, but they never question
the impossible NEP 43/37% weights; they claim it was either a) sampling
error, b) "false recall" on the part of Gore 2000 voters, or c)
necessary weighting adjustments made to reconcile final "projections"
with a late-incoming vote counts - even though virtually all of the votes were
counted by midnight. And so they must have been incorporated in the 12:22am
exit poll timeline of 13047 respondents.

The 41% Bush weight used in the earlier, pristine 12:22am timeline (which
Kerry won) was within the MoE of the absolute 39.8% Bush maximum. But
that's a MOOT point, as it was still mathematically impossible. 

Conversely, the final NEP Bush 43% weighting is far beyond the MoE. So it's
also MOOT - and even MORE impossible (infinity = infinity + infinity?). To
accept the 43% weight as factual means that you must also believe Bush
received 5 million MORE votes than he actually did in 2000. 

Relentless naysayers want you to believe that the 43% figure is neither
MOOT nor impossible- just irrelevant. Since they can't refute the facts,
they must resort to performing acrobatic contortions to spin the obvious,
using smooth, semantic double-talk, much more sophisticated than those
talking media heads who spin daily and fail to report the Al Gore speech.
Like the talking heads, the credo is: if you can't spin it, don't even
mention it.

Naysayers can't claim that the 43/37% split is due to rBr, their earlier
famous "hypothesis" to explain the exit poll discrepancy, long
since debunked. 

What is it about "inherent "contradiction" that they don't
understand? 

FACTS THEY DON'T WANT YOU TO KNOW

The following facts have been misrepresented, obfuscated or ignored:

1) The number of RETURNING 2000 election voters had to have been LESS THAN
than the number of those who ACTUALLY voted in 2000. That's because
approximately 3.5% of 2000 voters have since died. 

2) The MAXIMUM PERCENTAGE WEIGHTS of the 2004 vote (V2k) for "HOW
VOTED IN 2000" are INVARIANT and INDEPENDENT of the Exit Poll. 

3) The weights are obtained by SIMPLE DIVISION: GW = GV/V2k and BW= BV/V2k,
where GV and BV are the Gore and Bush 2000 votes. 

4) The final NEP V2k weights indicate that 52.57mm Bush 2000 voters voted
for Bush in 2004 (43% of the total). This is IMPOSSIBLE. Only 48.7 million
Bush 2000 voters were still alive to vote in 2004.


THE ONLY RELEVANT QUESTIONS

The exit poll debate comes down to FOUR SIMPLE questions:

1) WHAT WAS KERRY'S SHARE OF THOSE WHO DID NOT VOTE IN 2000?
According to the 12:22am NEP, it was 57%; it was 54% in the 1:25pm FINAL.
A naysayer has suggested that it was 52.9% - without evidence.

2) WHAT WAS KERRY'S SHARE OF GORE 2000 VOTERS?
The 12:22am NEP said 91%; it was 90% in the FINAL.
The naysayer has suggested that it was 84.6% - without evidence.

3) WHAT WAS KERRY'S SHARE OF BUSH 2000 VOTERS?
The 12:22am NEP said 10%; it was 9% in the FINAL.
The naysayer has suggested that it was 7.2% - without evidence.

4) WHAT WAS KERRY'S SHARE OF NADER 2000 VOTERS?
The 12:22am NEP said 71%; it was 71% in the FINAL.
The naysayer has suggested that it was 65.9% - without evidence.

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO

Unless Kerry's vote shares were much LOWER than the FINAL NEP (and far
beyond the margin of error) the only possible conclusion is that he won the
election. 

Using the revised weights and assuming the 12:22am vote shares, Kerry won
by 7 million votes: 64-57 mm (52.4%-46.6%). According to the recorded vote,
Bush won by 3 million votes: 62-59 mm (50.73%-48.28%).	

The V2k weights were adjusted to CONFORM to the actual number of Bush and
Gore 2000 voters who were still alive in 2004. There were 122.3 million
recorded votes in 2004. The revised weights are then calculated as follows:

Bush 2000 maximum turnout = 48.7 / 122.3 = 39.82%
Assuming 98% turnout BT = .98 * .3982  = 39.02%
Gore (GT) and Nader (NT) percentages are calculated the same way.

Having determined the above weights, we can calculate the percentage of
2004 voters (new and old) who did not vote (DNV) in 2000:

DNV% = 100% - BT - GT - NT 
DNV% = 19.27% = 100%- 39.02- 39.45- 2.26
DNV  = 23.56 mm = .1927 * 122.27mm

WHERE DID BUSH FIND 13 MILLION NEW VOTERS?

Since Bush started with a 48.7mm base from 2000, he needed to add over 13
million NEW voters in order to get his recorded 62 million vote in 2004. 

This analysis shows that Bush added 6.5 million votes to his 2000 vote
total of 50.5 million. But 1.50-1.75 million Bush 2000 voters died prior to
the election, so he actually added 8 million new voters. 

It thus appears that the Bush vote total was inflated and Kerry's reduced
by FIVE MILLION VOTES. 

The 12:22am NEP, which Kerry won by 51.4-47.6% (How Voted demographic),
gave Bush 2000 voters an IMPOSSIBLE 41% share of the 122.3 million 2004
votes. The NEP proceeded to COMPOUND the IMPOSSIBILITY with it's 43%
weighting in the 1:25pm Final (which Bush won by 51-48). Very strange
indeed.

 
IF THE FINAL V2K WEIGHTS ARE IMPOSSIBLE...

The Final NEP had to match the vote. Pollsters say that's SOP. Well, it 
only makes sense  when the actual votes are not miscounted. But there is
OVERWHELMING evidence ON THE GROUND that the votes were grossly miscounted
in favor of Bush, especially in Florida and Ohio - two states he HAD to
win.

If the Final V2k weights were IMPOSSIBLE but NECESSARY in order to MATCH
the recorded vote, then it stands to reason that in ALL of the other Final
NEP demographics, the weights and/or vote shares required to match the vote
MUST be WRONG even if individually they cannot be proven mathematically
impossible like the V2k weights. 

Unfortunately, weights for these demographics CANNOT be VERIFIED with
corresponding HISTORICAL data as they can be with V2k. The weights CAN be
checked against other data sources, however, such as the census (Gender),
voter registration (Party ID), undecided voter statistics (When Decided),
voter political preference (Ideology), geographic trends (Region), economic
factors (Income), population growth (Age), and church-going frequency
(Religion).

That's why the Final NEP V2k demographic, adjusted for actual, verifiable
2000 vote constraints, is a logical basis and starting point in estimating
vote shares for all other demographics.  

The 1:25pm Final NEP increased Bush's vote shares from the 12:22am timeline
in ALL the demographics. This was necessary in order to match the vote
counts. The WEIGHTS were incremented in the categories where increase in vote
share was INSUFFICIENT to match the recorded national vote; doing so would have
raised RED flags.  


THE LOGICAL CONCLUSION

The analysis indicates that Kerry did EXACTLY ONE PERCENT better than his
oft-quoted NEP result. In fact, he would have exceeded 52.4%, since in
2004, as in every election, millions of voters, the great majority of whom
are Democrats, are disenfranchised and never get to the polls. 

A case in point: the 2004 Census (60,000 respondents) indicated 125.7mm
voted, yet the recorded vote was 122.3mm, a 3.4mm discrepancy. The Census
has a 0.30% margin of error.

It is worth repeating that the Final 1:25pm NEP V2k demographic weights of
43% Bush/ 37% Gore are IMPOSSIBLE, since they are INCOMPATIBLE with the
number of Bush 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004.  Only 48.7 million
Bush 2000 voters were still alive in 2004. But 43% of 122.3 million is 52.57
million, almost 4 million MORE. 

It is IRREFUTABLE proof that the 43% Final NEP weighting, as well as the
41% weighting for the 12:22am timeline, are BOTH mathematically impossible,
even if they matched the number of exit poll respondents. If that was the
case, then Bush voters were greatly oversampled.

THE WEIGHTS WHICH HAD TO BE CHANGED IN THE FINAL

These are categories in which the weights were changed in the Final NEP.
(* indicates change was necessary and significant)

Party ID *      Dem -1% / Rep +2% / Ind -1%
How Voted 2K *  Gore -2% / Bush +2%					
Region          South +1% /  West -1%	
Education       Some college +1% / Post Grad -1%				
Income          0-15k -1% / 75-100k +1%		
Ideology *      Liberal -1% / Conservative +1%			
When Decided    Today -1% / Last 3days +1%		

The focus of the analysis is the 12:22am NEP. Vote shares were adjusted to
match Kerry's 64mm V2k total; 3rd party "Other" vote share was
set to 1%.

The Final 1:25pm NEP is displayed for comparision. In most categories, vote
shares totals are less than 100%, primarily due to insufficient
"Other". 
________________________________________________________________________

THE TALKING POINTS

1) False recall: Gore voters forgot said they voted for Bush. 
Forget someone who robbed you blind in broad daylight four years ago?

2) The rbr hypothesis: Bush voters did not want to be interviewed.
Disproved by simulation, optimization and the exit poll data itself.
So they had to come up with (1)

3) Large Exit Poll MoE: They're not accurate and effectively useless.
They claimed the "Cluster Effect" inflated the margin of error. 

But the formula gives an MoE of 0.86% for the National Exit Poll (13047).
Adding a 30% cluster effect bring it up to 1.12%.
Mitofsky said the MoE was 1.0% in the notes to the NEP.

The naysayers needed to erase the 1 in 19 TRILLION probability that exit
poll discrepancies would exceed the MoE in at least 16 states- all for Bush.
Even with a 30% cluster effect, state MoE's remain in the 2-3% range.
This brought the number of states with MoE exceeded down to 10.
But the probability that 10 are exceeded is 1 in 4.5 BILLION.

They had to admit that the discrepancies could not be due to chance.
It was either fraud or the exit polls were biased for Kerry.
So they had to come up with (2).

4) Heavy early turnout of women.  
The gender mix was constant throughout the exit poll timeline. 
Moot point. The national vote shares are hardly changed by the mix. 
So they had to come up with (3).

No, those dogs won't hunt. 

So they keep throwing new stuff out there, denigrating solid, honest research
while supporting  false propaganmda which passes as research. They expect
people won't see through their slick, convoluted nonsense. After all, it sounds
CONVINCING. 

Just like Fox News, they keep catapulting the propaganda. Even when the 43/37
issue is moot. Even if the 2000 vote is invariant. And so they frantically spin
ridiculous, impossible scenarios with no end in sight. 

_______________________________________________________________________________

			NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS				

	Final Recorded Vote							
	Kerry	Bush	Other					
	48.28%	50.73%	0.91%					
	59.028	62.027	1.116					
	Total	122.27mm votes					
									
	12:22am Adjusted vote shares		            12:22am No adj.	
CATEGORY		Kerry	Bush	Other			Kerry	Bush Other
Total Votes		64.01	56.95	1.22			62.05	58.45	1.26
Percent	                52.39%	46.61%	1.00%			50.79%	47.84%	1.03%
2-party		        52.92%	47.08%				51.50%	48.50%	
									
									
Gender		        52.35%	46.65%	1.00%			50.78%	48.22%	1.00%
Party- ID		52.34%	46.66%	1.00%			50.69%	47.50%	1.27%
Voted 2000		52.39%	46.65%	0.96%			51.41%	47.62%	0.97%
Region		        52.41%	46.59%	1.00%			50.53%	47.95%	1.00%
Education		52.39%	46.61%	1.00%			50.43%	48.18%	1.39%
									
Race		        52.40%	46.60%	1.00%			50.94%	47.86%	1.00%
Age		        52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			50.26%	47.69%	1.05%
Income		        52.39%	46.61%	1.00%			51.39%	47.39%	0.94%
Ideology		52.40%	46.60%	1.00%			49.85%	48.15%	1.00%
Religion		52.48%	46.52%	1.00%			50.78%	47.94%	1.21%
									
Military		52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			51.20%	47.62%	1.00%
Decided		        52.37%	46.63%	1.00%			51.23%	47.95%	0.54%
										

12:22am Adjusted	................................  1:25pm Final

HOW VOTED IN 2000	
      Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	23.56	19.27%	57%	41%	2%		17%	54%	45%	1%
Gore	48.23	39.45%	91%	8%	1%		37%	90%	10%	0%
Bush	47.71	39.02%	10%	90%	0%		43%	9%	91%	0%
Other	2.76	2.26%	71%	21%	8%		3%	71%	21%	3%
										
Total 			52.39%	46.65%	0.96%		       48.48%	51.11%	0.26%
	      122.27	64.05	57.04	1.17		122.08 59.28	62.49	0.32
										

GENDER	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Male 	56.73	46.40%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%		46%	44%     55%	0%
Female 	65.54	53.60%	55.3%	43.7%	1.00%		54%	51%	48%	0%
										
Total 			52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			47.78%	51.22%	0.00%
	      122.27	64.04	57.01	1.22		121.04	58.42	62.63	0.00
										
	
PARTY ID	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem	46.46	38%	92%	7%	1%		37%	89%	11%	0%
Rep 	42.79	35%	8%	91%	1%		37%	6%	93%	0%
Ind	33.01	27%	54%	45%	1%		26%	49%	48%	1%
										
Total 			52.34%	46.66%	1.00%		        47.89%	50.96%	0.26%
	      122.27	63.99	57.05	1.22		121.18	58.55	62.31	0.32
																			
REGION	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
East	26.90	22%	59%	40%	1%		22%	56%	43%	1%
Midw	31.79	26%	51%	48%	1%		26%	48%	51%	0%
South	37.90	31%	47%	52%	1%		32%	42%	58%	0%
West	25.68	21%	55%	44%	1%		20%	50%	49%	1%
										
Total			52.36%	46.64%	1.00%		        48.24%	51.08%	0.42%
	      122.27	64.02	57.03	1.22		121.95	58.98	62.45	0.51
																			
EDUCATION	
      Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No HS	 4.89	4%	53%	46%	1%		4%	50%	49%	0%
HSGr 	26.90	22%	51%	48%	1%		22%	47%	52%	0%
Col 	37.90	31%	50%	49%	1%		32%	46%	54%	0%
ColGr	31.79	26%	52%	47%	1%		26%	46%	52%	1%
PostG	20.79	17%	59%	40%	1%		16%	55%	44%	1%
										
Total 		       52.39%	46.61%	1.00%		        47.82%	51.24%	0.42%
	      122.27	64.06	56.99	1.22		121.63	58.47	62.65	0.51
	
										
RACE AND GENDER	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
WMale   44.02	36%	43%	56%	1%		36%	37%	62%	0%
WFem	50.13	41%	48%	51%	1%		41%	44%	55%	0%
NWMale  12.23	10%	71%	28%	1%		10%	67%	30%	1%
NwFem	15.89	13%	78%	21%	1%		13%	75%	24%	1%
										
Total 			52.40%	46.60%	1.00%		        47.81%	50.99%	0.23%
 	      122.27	64.07	56.98	1.22		121.08	58.46	62.34	0.28
																			
AGE	
        Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
18-29 	20.79	17%	59%	40%	1%		17%	54%	45%	0%
30-44 	35.46	29%	50%	49%	1%		29%	46%	53%	1%
45-59 	36.68	30%	53%	46%	1%		30%	48%	51%	0%
60+ 	29.34	24%	50%	49%	1%		24%	46%	54%	0%
										
Total 			52.43%	46.57%	1.00%			47.96%	51.28%	0.29%
	       122.27	64.11	56.94	1.22		121.69	58.64	62.70	0.35
																			
INCOME	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
0-15K 	11.00	9%	66%	33%	1%		8%	63%	36%	0%
15-30 	18.34	15%	61%	38%	1%		15%	57%	42%	0%
30-50 	26.90	22%	54%	45%	1%		22%	50%	49%	0%
50-75 	28.12	23%	47%	52%	1%		23%	43%	56%	0%
75-100  15.89	13%	49%	50%	1%		14%	45%	55%	0%
100-150 13.45	11%	46%	53%	1%		11%	42%	57%	1%
150-200  4.89	4%	48%	51%	1%		4%	42%	58%	0%
200+ 	 3.67	3%	42%	57%	1%		3%	35%	63%	1%
										
Total 			52.39%	46.61%	1.00%			48.13%	51.02%	0.14%
	122.27	        64.06	56.99	1.22		121.40	58.85	62.38	0.17
																			
IDEOLOGY	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Lib 	26.90	22%	92%	7%	1%		21%	85%	13%	1%
Mod	55.02	45%	59%	40%	1%		45%	54%	45%	0%
Cons 	40.35	33%	17%	82%	1%		34%	15%	84%	0%
										
Total 			52.40%	46.60%	1.00%			47.25%	51.54%	0.21%
	      122.27	64.07	56.98	1.22		121.04	57.77	63.02	0.26
																			
RELIGION 
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Prot	64.80	53%	45%	54%	1%		53%	40%	59%	0%
Cath   33.01	27%	52%	47%	1%		27%	47%	52%	0%
Jewish	3.67	3%	77%	22%	1%		3%	74%	25%	0%
Other 	8.56	7%	74%	25%	1%		7%	74%	23%	1%
None 	12.23	10%	70%	29%	1%		10%	67%	31%	1%
										
Total 			52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			47.99%	50.77%	0.17%
	       122.27	64.04	57.00	1.22		120.96	58.68	62.07	0.21
																			
MILITARY	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Yes 	22.01	18%	45%	54%	1%		18%	41%	57%	0%
No 	100.26	82%	54%	45%	1%		82%	50%	49%	0%
										
Total 			52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			48.38%	50.44%	0.00%
	      122.27	64.04	57.00	1.22		120.82	59.15	61.67	0.00
									
	
WHEN DECIDED
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Today 	7.34	6%	68%	31%	1%		5%	52%	45%	1%
Last3 	3.67	3%	68%	31%	1%		4%	55%	42%	1%
Last7 	2.45	2%	67%	32%	1%		2%	48%	51%	0%
Last30 	12.23	10%	62%	37%	1%		10%	54%	44%	1%
Over30	96.59	79%	49%	50%	1%		79%	46%	53%	0%
										
Total 			52.37%	46.63%	1.00%			47.50%	51.22%	0.19%
	      122.27	64.03	57.01	1.22		120.93	58.08	62.63	0.23

_______________________________________________________________________________


					NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS							
				     Nov.3, 2004, 12:22am  (13047 respondents)							
													
						Final Recorded Vote						
						Kerry	Bush	Other				
						48.28%	50.73%	0.91%				
						59.028	62.027	1.116				
						Total	122.267	votes				
													
		Actual                                    Adj. for Kerry 64mm 
 				
		CATEGORY        Kerry	Bush	Other		Kerry	Bush	Other		
		Total Votes	62.03	58.52	1.27		64.06	56.99	1.22		
		Percent	        50.73%	47.86%	1.04%		52.39%  46.61%	1.00%		
		2-party         51.46%	48.54%			52.92%	47.08%			
													
													
		Voted2000       51.41%	47.62%	0.82%		52.39%	46.65%	0.96%		
		Gender          50.78%	48.22%	1.00%		52.38%	46.62%	1.00%		
		Party-ID        50.69%	47.50%	1.27%		52.34%	46.66%	1.00%		
		Region          50.53%	47.95%	1.00%		52.36%	46.64%	1.00%		
		Education       50.43%	48.18%	1.39%		52.39%	46.61%	1.00%		
													
		Race            50.94%	47.86%	1.00%		52.40%	46.60%	1.00%		
		Age             50.26%	47.69%	1.05%		52.43%	46.57%	1.00%		
		Income          51.39%	47.39%	0.94%		52.39%	46.61%	1.00%		
		Ideology        49.85%	48.15%	1.00%		52.40%	46.60%	1.00%		
		Religion        50.78%	47.94%	1.21%		52.48%	46.52%	1.00%		
													
		Military        51.20%	47.62%	1.00%		52.38%	46.62%	1.00%		
		Decided         51.23%	47.95%	0.54%		52.37%	46.63%	1.00%		
																						
VOTED IN 2000 *
Weights changed to 37/43 in FINAL NEP at 1:25pm
Maximum weights adjusted for 98% turnout 
Kerry wins Did Not Vote in 2000 by almost 3-2

		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No		20.75	17%	57%	41%	2%	100%		23.56	19.27%	57%	41%	2%
Gore		47.61	39%	91%	8%	1%	100%		48.23	39.45%	91%	8%	1%
Bush		50.06	41%	10%	90%	0%	100%		47.71	39.02%	10%	90%	0%
Other		3.66	3%	71%	21%	3%	95%		2.76	2.26%	71%	21%	8%
													
Total 				51.41%	47.62%	0.82%	99.85%				52.39%	46.65%	0.96%
		122.09		62.86	58.22	1.00	122.09		122.27		64.05	57.04	1.17



GENDER
No changes to weights 
(vote shares not sensitive to gender split)
Kerry wins 55% of females
and 49% of males
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Male 		56.24	46%	47%	52%	1%	100%		56.73	46.4%	49.0%	50.0%	1%
Female 		66.03	54%	54%	45%	1%	100%		65.54	53.6%	55.3%	43.7%	1%
													
Total 				50.78%	48.22%	1.00%	100.00%				52.38%	46.62%	1.00%
		122.27		62.09	58.96	1.22	122.27		122.27		64.04	57.01	1.22
													
PARTY ID *
Weights changed to 37/37/26 in FINAL 
Kerry wins Democrats and Independents by 3-1				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem		46.46	38%	90%	9%	1%	100%		46.46	38%	92%	7%	1%
Rep 		42.79	35%	7%	92%	1%	100%		42.79	35%	8%	91%	1%
Ind		33.01	27%	52%	44%	2%	98%		33.01	27%	54%	45%	1%
													
Total 				50.69%	47.50%	1.27%	99.46%				52.34%	46.66%	1.00%
		121.61		61.98	58.08	1.55	121.61		122.27		64.00	57.05	1.22
													
REGION
Weights changed in FINAL
Kerry wins all regions except the South				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
East		26.76	22%	58%	41%	1%	100%		26.90	22%	59%	40%	1%
Midw		31.62	26%	50%	49%	1%	100%		31.79	26%	51%	48%	1%
South		37.71	31%	44%	54%	1%	99%		37.90	31%	47%	52%	1%
West		25.54	21%	53%	45%	1%	99%		25.68	21%	55%	44%	1%
													
Total				50.53%	47.95%	1.00%	99.48%				52.36%	46.64%	1.00%
		121.63		61.78	58.63	1.22	121.63		122.27		64.02	57.03	1.22
													
EDUCATION
No changes to weights
Kerry wins 55% of college grads 				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No HS		4.89	4%	53%	46%	1%	100%		4.89	4%	53%	46%	1%
HS Grad 	26.90	22%	50%	48%	2%	100%		26.90	22%	51%	48%	1%
College 	37.90	31%	48%	51%	1%	100%		37.90	31%	50%	49%	1%
ColGrad 	31.79	26%	49%	50%	1%	100%		31.79	26%	52%	47%	1%
PostGrad	20.79	17%	57%	41%	2%	100%		20.79	17%	59%	40%	1%
													
Total 				50.43%	48.18%	1.39%	100.00%				52.39%	46.61%	1.00%
		122.27		61.66	58.91	1.70	122.27		122.27		64.06	56.99	1.22
													
RACE AND GENDER
No changes in weights in FINAL
Kerry wins Non-whites by 3-1				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Wmale		43.93	36%	41%	58%	1%	100%		44.02	36%	43%	56%	1%
Wfemale		50.03	41%	47%	52%	1%	100%		50.13	41%	48%	51%	1%
NWmale		12.20	10%	69%	28%	1%	98%		12.23	10%	71%	28%	1%
NWfemale	15.86	13%	77%	22%	1%	100%		15.90	13%	78%	21%	1%
													
Total 				50.94%	47.86%	1.00%	99.80%				52.40%	46.60%	1.00%
		122.03		62.28	58.52	1.22	122.03		122.27		64.07	56.98	1.22
				

AGE
No changes in weights in FINAL
Kerry wins New voters by 3-2				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
18-29 		20.58	17%	56%	42%	1%	99%		20.79	17%	59%	40%	1%
30-44 		35.10	29%	48%	49%	2%	99%		35.46	29%	50%	49%	1%
45-59 		36.31	30%	51%	47%	1%	99%		36.68	30%	53%	46%	1%
60 +		29.05	24%	48%	51%	0%	99%		29.34	24%	50%	49%	1%
													
Total 				50.26%	47.69%	1.05%	99.00%				52.43%	46.57%	1.00%
		121.05		61.45	58.31	1.28	121.05		122.27		64.11	56.94	1.22
													
INCOME
No changes in weights to FINAL	
Kerry wins under 50k income by almost 3-2				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
0-15K 		10.97	9%	65%	34%	1%	100%		11.00	9%	66%	33%	1%
15-30 		18.29	15%	60%	38%	1%	99%		18.34	15%	61%	38%	1%
30-50 		26.82	22%	53%	46%	1%	100%		26.90	22%	54%	45%	1%
50-75 		28.04	23%	46%	53%	1%	100%		28.12	23%	47%	52%	1%
75-100 		15.85	13%	48%	51%	0%	99%		15.90	13%	49%	50%	1%
100-150	       13.41	11%	45%	53%	2%	100%		13.45	11%	46%	53%	1%
150-200       4.88	4%	47%	53%	0%	100%		4.89	4%	48%	51%	1%
200+ 		3.66	3%	41%	58%	1%	100%		3.67	3%	42%	57%	1%
													
Total 				51.39%	47.39%	0.94%	99.72%				52.39%	46.61%	1.00%
		121.93		62.83	57.94	1.15	121.93		122.27		64.06	56.99	1.22
													
IDEOLOGY *
Change weights to 21/45/34 in FINAL
Kerry wins Liberals and Moderates by 2-1				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Lib 		26.63	22%	86%	12%	1%	99%		26.90	22%	92%	7%	1%
Mod		54.47	45%	57%	41%	1%	99%		55.02	45%	59%	40%	1%
Con		39.95	33%	16%	82%	1%	99%		40.35	33%	17%	82%	1%
													
Total 				49.85%	48.15%	1.00%	99.00%				52.40%	46.60%	1.00%
		121.05		60.95	58.87	1.22	121.05		122.27		64.07	56.98	1.22
													
RELIGION
No changes to weights in FINAL			
Kerry wins Catholics and minorities  by 3-2				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Prot		64.76	53%	43%	56%	1%	100%		64.80	53%	45%	54%	1%
Cath		32.99	27%	50%	49%	1%	100%		33.01	27%	52%	47%	1%
Jewish      	3.67	3%	78%	22%	0%	100%		3.67	3%	77%	22%	1%
Other       	8.55	7%	75%	21%	3%	99%		8.56	7%	74%	25%	1%
None 		12.22	10%	69%	29%	2%	100%		12.23	10%	71%	28%	1%
													
Total 				50.78%	47.94%	1.21%	99.93%				52.48%	46.52%	1.00%
		122.18		62.09	58.62	1.48	122.18		122.27		64.17	56.88	1.22
													
MILITARY
No changes to weights in FINAL
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Yes 		21.97	18%	43%	55%	1%	99%		22.01	18%	45%	54%	1%
No 		100.08	82%	53%	46%	1%	100%		100.26	82%	54%	45%	1%
													
Total 				51.20%	47.62%	1.00%	99.82%				52.38%	46.62%	1.00%
		122.05		62.60	58.22	1.22	122.05		122.27		64.05	57.00	1.22
													
WHEN DECIDED
Slight changes to weights in FINAL 	
Kerry wins Late undecideds by 2-1				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Today 		7.32	6%	53%	40%	5%	98%		7.34	6%	68%	31%	1%
Last3 		3.66	3%	53%	41%	4%	98%		3.67	3%	68%	31%	1%
Last7		2.44	2%	48%	51%	1%	100%		2.45	2%	67%	32%	1%
Last30		12.19	10%	60%	38%	1%	99%		12.23	10%	62%	37%	1%
Over30		96.32	79%	50%	50%	0%	100%		96.59	79%	49%	50%	1%
													
Total 				51.23%	47.95%	0.54%	99.72%				52.37%	46.63%	1.00%
		121.93		62.64	58.63	0.66	121.93		122.27		64.03	57.01	1.22


___________________________________________________________________________


THE PROBABILITIES

NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Assuming a 1.0% MoE (its actually 0.86% for 13047 respondents) and a given
cluster effect, this is a probability table for the 4.1% Bush discrepancy
(46.6% in the poll > 50.7% in the vote): 

......... Probability
Cluster    1 in
0       2251 trillion
10%        7 trillion
20%       93 billion
30%        3 billion
40%      210 million
50%     23.6 million
60%      3.9 million



STATE EXIT POLLS

The margin of error (MoE) was exceeded in N= 16 states for Bush.
Assuming the given cluster effect, the Probability that the MoE would be
exceeded in at least N states is: 

......Probability
N        1 in
1           1
2           3
3           8
4          28
5         123
6         662
7       4,214
8      31,188
9     264,775
10   2.55 million  < cluster effect = 30% 

11   27 million
12  334 million
13  4.5 billion    < cluster = 20%
14   66 billion    < cluster = 10%
15   1 trillion     

16  19 trillion    < Zero cluster 



__________________________________________________________________________

National Exit Poll Sensitivity Analysis 

For the sensitivity analysis, we assume 
a) 12:22am NEP timeline
b) 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout 
c) Declining Gore voter turnout (from 100% to 71%). 

The analysis shows that even with a LARGE Bush 2000 voter turnout 
advantage, there is not ONE PLAUSIBLE Bush victory SCENARIO.

At the 12:22am timeline:
Kerry won 57% of those who DID NOT VOTE (DNV) in 2000.

For Kerry to TIE Bush, he needed a MINIMUM 80% Gore voter turnout.
Very plausible.

For Bush to WIN by 3 mm votes, he needed a MAXIMUM 71% Gore voter turnout.
Not plausible.

At the 1:25pm Final timeline:
Kerry won 54% of those who DID NOT VOTE in 2000

For Kerry to TIE Bush, he needed a MINIMUM 85% Gore voter turnout. 
Very plausible.

For Bush to WIN by 3 mm votes, he needed a MAXIMUM 77% Gore voter turnout.
Not plausible.

												
		National Exit Poll Sensitivity Analysis 				
                
                New Voter Share and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout
                Impact on Kerry Vote Percentage and Margin
	         (assume 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout) 								
													
		    Timeline        7:33pm		12:22am			1:25pm								

	   Turnout	 DNV        Kerry% of DNV 2000 
	Gore	Weight	2000	60%	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%	53%	52%	51%
													
						Kerry National Vote 						
													
	100%	40.28%	17.58%	52.81%	52.64%	52.46%	52.28%	52.11%	51.93%	51.76%	51.58%	51.41%	51.23%
	99%	39.88%	17.98%	52.69%	52.51%	52.33%	52.15%	51.97%	51.79%	51.61%	51.43%	51.25%	51.07%
	98%	39.48%	18.39%	52.56%	52.38%	52.19%	52.01%	51.83%	51.64%	51.46%	51.27%	51.09%	50.91%
	97%	39.08%	18.79%	52.44%	52.25%	52.06%	51.87%	51.69%	51.50%	51.31%	51.12%	50.93%	50.75%
	96%	38.67%	19.19%	52.31%	52.12%	51.93%	51.74%	51.54%	51.35%	51.16%	50.97%	50.78%	50.58%
													
	95%	38.27%	19.60%	52.19%	51.99%	51.80%	51.60%	51.40%	51.21%	51.01%	50.82%	50.62%	50.42%
	94%	37.87%	20.00%	52.06%	51.86%	51.66%	51.46%	51.26%	51.06%	50.86%	50.66%	50.46%	50.26%
	93%	37.46%	20.40%	51.94%	51.73%	51.53%	51.33%	51.12%	50.92%	50.71%	50.51%	50.31%	50.10%
	92%	37.06%	20.80%	51.81%	51.60%	51.40%	51.19%	50.98%	50.77%	50.56%	50.36%	50.15%	49.94%
	91%	36.66%	21.21%	51.69%	51.48%	51.26%	51.05%	50.84%	50.63%	50.42%	50.20%	49.99%	49.78%
													
	90%	36.26%	21.61%	51.56%	51.35%	51.13%	50.91%	50.70%	50.48%	50.27%	50.05%	49.83%	49.62%
	89%	35.85%	22.01%	51.44%	51.22%	51.00%	50.78%	50.56%	50.34%	50.12%	49.90%	49.68%	49.46%
	88%	35.45%	22.42%	51.31%	51.09%	50.86%	50.64%	50.42%	50.19%	49.97%	49.74%	49.52%	49.30%
	87%	35.05%	22.82%	51.19%	50.96%	50.73%	50.50%	50.28%	50.05%	49.82%	49.59%	49.36%	49.13%
	86%	34.64%	23.22%	51.06%	50.83%	50.60%	50.37%	50.13%	49.90%	49.67%	49.44%	49.21%	48.97%
													
	85%	34.24%	23.62%	50.94%	50.70%	50.47%	50.23%	49.99%	49.76%	49.52%	49.28%	49.05%	48.81%
	84%	33.84%	24.03%	50.81%	50.57%	50.33%	50.09%	49.85%	49.61%	49.37%	49.13%	48.89%	48.65%
	83%	33.44%	24.43%	50.69%	50.44%	50.20%	49.96%	49.71%	49.47%	49.22%	48.98%	48.73%	48.49%
	82%	33.03%	24.83%	50.56%	50.32%	50.07%	49.82%	49.57%	49.32%	49.07%	48.83%	48.58%	48.33%
	81%	32.63%	25.24%	50.44%	50.19%	49.93%	49.68%	49.43%	49.18%	48.92%	48.67%	48.42%	48.17%
													
	80%	32.23%	25.64%	50.31%	50.06%	49.80%	49.54%	49.29%	49.03%	48.78%	48.52%	48.26%	48.01%
	79%	31.82%	26.04%	50.19%	49.93%	49.67%	49.41%	49.15%	48.89%	48.63%	48.37%	48.11%	47.85%
	78%	31.42%	26.44%	50.06%	49.80%	49.54%	49.27%	49.01%	48.74%	48.48%	48.21%	47.95%	47.68%
	77%	31.02%	26.85%	49.94%	49.67%	49.40%	49.13%	48.87%	48.60%	48.33%	48.06%	47.79%	47.52%
	76%	30.62%	27.25%	49.81%	49.54%	49.27%	49.00%	48.72%	48.45%	48.18%	47.91%	47.63%	47.36%
													
	75%	30.21%	27.65%	49.69%	49.41%	49.14%	48.86%	48.58%	48.31%	48.03%	47.75%	47.48%	47.20%
	74%	29.81%	28.06%	49.56%	49.28%	49.00%	48.72%	48.44%	48.16%	47.88%	47.60%	47.32%	47.04%
	73%	29.41%	28.46%	49.44%	49.16%	48.87%	48.59%	48.30%	48.02%	47.73%	47.45%	47.16%	46.88%
	72%	29.00%	28.86%	49.32%	49.03%	48.74%	48.45%	48.16%	47.87%	47.58%	47.29%	47.01%	46.72%
	71%	28.60%	29.26%	49.19%	48.90%	48.60%	48.31%	48.02%	47.73%	47.43%	47.14%	46.85%	46.56%
													
													
		
		    Timeline        7:33pm		12:22am			1:25pm				

	  Turnout	 DNV        Kerry% of DNV 2000 
	Gore	Weight	2000	60%	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%	53%	52%	51%
				

						Kerry Vote Margin (millions)						

	100%	40.28%	17.58%	8.01	7.59	7.16	6.73	6.30	5.87	5.44	5.01	4.58	4.15
	99%	39.88%	17.98%	7.71	7.27	6.83	6.39	5.95	5.51	5.07	4.63	4.19	3.75
	98%	39.48%	18.39%	7.40	6.96	6.51	6.06	5.61	5.16	4.71	4.26	3.81	3.36
	97%	39.08%	18.79%	7.10	6.64	6.18	5.72	5.26	4.80	4.34	3.89	3.43	2.97
	96%	38.67%	19.19%	6.79	6.33	5.86	5.39	4.92	4.45	3.98	3.51	3.04	2.57
													
	95%	38.27%	19.60%	6.49	6.01	5.53	5.05	4.57	4.09	3.62	3.14	2.66	2.18
	94%	37.87%	20.00%	6.18	5.70	5.21	4.72	4.23	3.74	3.25	2.76	2.27	1.79
	93%	37.46%	20.40%	5.88	5.38	4.88	4.38	3.88	3.39	2.89	2.39	1.89	1.39
	92%	37.06%	20.80%	5.57	5.07	4.56	4.05	3.54	3.03	2.52	2.02	1.51	1.00
	91%	36.66%	21.21%	5.27	4.75	4.23	3.71	3.20	2.68	2.16	1.64	1.12	0.60
													
	90%	36.26%	21.61%	4.96	4.44	3.91	3.38	2.85	2.32	1.80	1.27	0.74	0.21
	89%	35.85%	22.01%	4.66	4.12	3.58	3.04	2.51	1.97	1.43	0.89	0.36	-0.18
	88%	35.45%	22.42%	4.35	3.81	3.26	2.71	2.16	1.61	1.07	0.52	-0.03	-0.58
	87%	35.05%	22.82%	4.05	3.49	2.93	2.38	1.82	1.26	0.70	0.15	-0.41	-0.97
	86%	34.64%	23.22%	3.74	3.18	2.61	2.04	1.47	0.91	0.34	-0.23	-0.80	-1.36
													
	85%	34.24%	23.62%	3.44	2.86	2.28	1.71	1.13	0.55	-0.03	-0.60	-1.18	-1.76
	84%	33.84%	24.03%	3.13	2.55	1.96	1.37	0.78	0.20	-0.39	-0.98	-1.56	-2.15
	83%	33.44%	24.43%	2.83	2.23	1.63	1.04	0.44	-0.16	-0.75	-1.35	-1.95	-2.54
	82%	33.03%	24.83%	2.52	1.92	1.31	0.70	0.10	-0.51	-1.12	-1.73	-2.33	-2.94
	81%	32.63%	25.24%	2.22	1.60	0.98	0.37	-0.25	-0.87	-1.48	-2.10	-2.72	-3.33
													
	80%	32.23%	25.64%	1.91	1.29	0.66	0.03	-0.59	-1.22	-1.85	-2.47	-3.10	-3.73
	79%	31.82%	26.04%	1.61	0.97	0.33	-0.30	-0.94	-1.57	-2.21	-2.85	-3.48	-4.12
	78%	31.42%	26.44%	1.30	0.66	0.01	-0.64	-1.28	-1.93	-2.58	-3.22	-3.87	-4.51
	77%	31.02%	26.85%	1.00	0.34	-0.32	-0.97	-1.63	-2.28	-2.94	-3.60	-4.25	-4.91
	76%	30.62%	27.25%	0.69	0.03	-0.64	-1.31	-1.97	-2.64	-3.30	-3.97	-4.64	-5.30
													
	75%	30.21%	27.65%	0.39	-0.29	-0.97	-1.64	-2.32	-2.99	-3.67	-4.34	-5.02	-5.69
	74%	29.81%	28.06%	0.08	-0.60	-1.29	-1.98	-2.66	-3.35	-4.03	-4.72	-5.40	-6.09
	73%	29.41%	28.46%	-0.22	-0.92	-1.61	-2.31	-3.01	-3.70	-4.40	-5.09	-5.79	-6.48
	72%	29.00%	28.86%	-0.53	-1.23	-1.94	-2.64	-3.35	-4.06	-4.76	-5.47	-6.17	-6.88
	71%	28.60%	29.26%	-0.83	-1.55	-2.26	-2.98	-3.69	-4.41	-5.12	-5.84	-6.55	-7.27
						
__________________________________________________________________________

ASSUME 100% TURNOUT OF GORE AND BUSH 2000 VOTERS

Calculate the revised MAXIMUM weights:
Voted	2000	Pct	Died	Alive	Revised				
Gore 	51.00	41.75%	1.79	49.22	40.28%				
Bush 	50.46	41.30%	1.77	48.69	39.85%				
Nader	2.88	2.36%	0.10	2.78	2.28%							


	          12:22am (13047 respondents)		 Final 1:25pm (13660)
Voted
2000	Weight	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total	
No	17.58%	21.48	57%	41%	2%	100%	17.58%	54%	45%	1%	100%	
Gore	40.28%	49.22	91%	8%	1%	100%	40.28%	90%	10%	0%	100%	
Bush	39.85%	48.69	10%	90%	0%	100%	39.85%	9%	91%	0%	100%	
Other	2.28%	2.79	71%	21%	8%	100%	2.28%	71%	21%	8%	100%	

Total 	100%		52.28%	46.78%	0.94%		100%	50.96%	48.69%	0.36%		
Vote 		122.17	63.88	57.15	1.14		122.17	62.25	59.48	0.44		
	Kerry	Margin: 6.73 million		 Kerry Margin: 2.77 million

The Vote shares change slightly compared to the 98% turnout assumed above.
As previously stated, LOWER 2000 voter turnout helps Kerry, since there
must be more DNV to make up the difference (total 2004 vote is 122.3mm). 

Conversely, HIGHER 2000 voter turnout helps Bush. Note that 100% turnout
adds 0.12% to Bush and takes 0.12% from Kerry, compared to 98% turnout: 

Kerry 52.28%; Bush 46.78%

Let's re-calculate the probabilities of vote discrepancies based on 100%
(unrealistic) 2000 voter turnout. We assume a 1.05% Exit Poll MoE based on
a 20% CLUSTER effect:

Probability P1 of Kerry 3.96% vote discrepancy:
P1= 1 in 15.0 trillion = 1/(NORMDIST(.5228,.4832,.0105/1.96,TRUE)

Probability P2 of Bush 3.99% vote discrepancy:
P2= 1 in 20.8 trillion = 1/(NORMDIST(.4678,.5077,.0105/1.96,TRUE)

Probability P3 of the vote discrepancy exceeding the MoE in 16 states:
P3 = 1 in 19.1 trillion = 1 - BINOMDIST(15, 50, ,025, true)

Note that P3 for the states is totally independent of P1 and P2 (national)
yet the probabilities are in CONFIRMATION.

One in 15-20 TRILLION!

__________________________________________________________________________


CENSUS WEIGHTS				


EDUCATION
Fewer College grads than NEP
	
     Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No HS	 9.85	8.06%	53%	46%	1%
HSG 	34.91	28.55%	51%	48%	1%
Colg 	37.84	30.95%	50%	49%	1%
ColGr	25.85	21.14%	52%	47%	1%
Post	13.82	11.30%	59%	40%	1%
					
Total	  100%	     51.97% 47.03% 1.00%
	122.27	     63.54  57.51  1.22



INCOME 
Fewer respondents than NEP under 50k. 
Did they inflate for the census?	
Or low-ball the NEP?

      Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
0-15K 	7.01	5.73%	66%	33%	1%
15-30 	14.77	12.08%	61%	38%	1%
30-50 	25.16	20.58%	54%	45%	1%
50-75 	29.37	24.02%	47%	52%	1%
75-100 	19.20	15.70%	49%	50%	1%
100-150 16.57	13.55%	46%	53%	1%
150-200 6.53	5.34%	48%	51%	1%
200+ 	  3.67	3.00%	42%	57%	1%
					
Total 	     100.0%	51.30% 47.70%	1.00%
	122.27		62.73	 58.32	1.22


AGE
(matches 64 million votes)	

      Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
18-29 	21.73	17.77%	57%	42%	1%
30-44 	31.25	25.56%	51%	48%	1%
45-59 	34.52	28.23%	53%	46%	1%
60+ 	34.77	28.44%	50%	49%	1%
					
Total 		100.0%	52.35%	46.65%	1.00%
	122.27		64.00	 57.04 1.22


__________________________________________________________________________
 
 

     

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

I am terrible at data analysis. I don't even bother, trying to read it or check
data sources, so i have to rely on the credibility of people who do this work. 
I appreciate you bringing this to the pi forum, i'm wondering if this has been
brought to Kerry's attention? 

There is a time when the operation of the machine becomes so odious, makes you so sick at heart, that you can't take part; you can't even passively take part, and you've got to put your bodies upon the gears and upon the wheels, upon the levers, upon all the apparatus, and you've got to make it stop. And you've got to indicate to the people who run it, to the people who own it, that unless you're free, the machine will be prevented from working at all! - Mario Savio, before Free Speech Movement demonstrators entered Sproul Hall to begin their sit-in on December 3, 1964.

the May June BUSH approval ratings being about 44%. Throw the 3rd party
candidates 1%. Kerry should have got 55%. Consider Voter supression and
"you cant vote, you are not registered" A Kerry win of 8% seems very
plausable.

If I did, he probably would just thank me and walk away.
And never acknowledge that I gave it to him.

Mark C. Miller has seen my models; he posted a link to it on his blog.
Jim Lampley referenced some of my stuff on Huffington Post.
Quite of few bloggers, as well.
The folks at USCV have seen it - Dopp, Baiman - and also Freeman.
And links to my posts were sent to Conyers.

Do you think I should send it to Al Gore?

On edit: On further reflection, Al is a very smart guy.
He doesn't need to be convinced. He knows.
As a matter of fact, they all do.
But other than Sen. Boxer and Conyers, the Dems are hopeless.

Nader was right.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

I think you should send it to al gore, jimmy carter, and senator boxer to request a full federal investigation in ohio's largest precincts....

federal examination investigation since they already have multiple other investigations down there, and thomas noe has been convicted.....

other then that shut down OTOH and I think that's all you can hope to do. the point is the exit poll deviation has never been explained in ohio, and it needs virtually untouchable attention, with all the lawsuits, and with them trying to turn it into a fascist state......spread it as far as it will reach.

That's right, on less than this.  The Bush apologists say that our election
polls are not designed to find fruad and that the Ukrainian polls were.  Or
they'll say, the Ukrainian polls were run by neocons.  Anything to get over, to
make it appear that Bush "probably" won.  They also display collective
anmesia about the history of election fraud in this country.

The presumption should be extreme caution and frank disbelief when bogus
results are demonstrated this clearly.

I say that Powell and Lugar should demand the recall of George Bush.  It
follows their logic after all.

Anyone want to bet how soon they might do this?

Obrador for President Site

Is this Hell yet?

How about sending it to Nader? We'd get to see what kind of a guy he really is. Some people have him pegged for some kind of shill. This would give him a chance to change my opinion of him (huge Corvair fan here, the engines work well in experimental airplanes, and my first car was a Corvair).

one if by land, two if by sea..

Thank (Diety of Choice) I never had an accident in it. It was a rolling coffin.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

I'm sure Nader now realizes his earth-shattering mistake in not backing Gore.

Why don't you ask Ida Briggs at DU to show this to him?
Ida did some NH recount work for Nader.

The recount proved there was ZERO fraud in NH.
Right.
I have this bridge...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

I don't understand why the recount was so quickly proclaimed as the final word on the entire state. Is Briggs still around? Wonder if she wrote this up anywhere.

Obrador for President Site

Now since the entry code to this thread seems to be confessing to one's youthful automotive follies, I may as well own up. Mon premier bazou (that's Quebecois for my first old banger) was nothing as glamorous as a Corvair--I mean, the accepted theory about those things was that, whatever their mechanical deficiencies, they had a magnetic appeal for slinky and gorgeous women.

I had a wretched little Vauxhall station wagon, marketed on this continent as the Envoy Epic--but epic only in its failings. Unstable, underpowered, ugly, unreliable--or rather, reliable only in that its radiator would boil over and go off like Old Faithful after two minutes of idling in gridlock city traffic. Oh yes, and the heater didn't work (an attractive feature in those Ontario winters), the clutch was fussy, and the braking delicate and intermittent.

So do young North American males really allegorize their sexuality in their choices of cars? Do we learn to drop such revealing habits? (I did get rid of that car three decades ago.) Or was this a precocious display of professional rather than sexual orientation? The literary theorist Stanley Fish claimed that literary academics--other than himself--are masochists and drive ugly cars as a sign of their appetite for humiliation....

Will that get me in? I do actually have a question about electoral stuff.

One feature of the 2004 exit poll data that puzzles me is the oddly low percentage figure that emerges for the number of people who moved on after the 2000 election to cast their ballots--depending, I guess, on party affiliations--either in a happier or in a hotter other world. You noted, TIA, that 3.5% of 2000 Bush voters would have died by 2004. But that figure seems, on demographic grounds, significantly too low. On the generous assumption that people might vote over a maximum span of about 60 years before expiring or losing interest, one might expect a death-and-replacement rate averaging something like one-fifteenth or 6.7% of the electorate every four years.

One consequence of stirring a demographically-inflected estimate into the calculations would be an increase in the proportion of new voters in 2004, which of course increases Kerry's numbers at the expense of Furious George's. But would this issue also affect one's estimate of MOE in the national exit polls?

until I bought the car. It took a few weeks, but I got the hang of it.

I couldn't return it to the Chevy dealer like I could the French 2-wheel racer my father bought for me at Macy's years earlier, which I then proceeded to ruin while learning how to ride.

As far as the 0.87% annual (3.5% over 4 years) death rate is concerned, you may be right - it might be too low to use as an estimate. And if there WERE more DNV (new voters), it could only have helped Kerry, since he won 57-60% of DNV. In fact, the Census said that 125.7mm voted, 3.4 million more than the recorded vote. Go figure.

But I still think it's more prudent to use the published annual death rate to determine how many Selection 2000 voters were still alive four years later. And don't forget, I assume a 98% turnout, so you need to factor that in. It means there were 1.5% more DNV than the Final NEP.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Total, the run was pure vanity. He betrayed his movement and his supporters, except those few "on the bus" types who made out financially or through added fame. I'll have more on him later, maybe.

He's a vomitorium.

Obrador for President Site

			NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS				

	Final Recorded Vote							
	Kerry	Bush	Other					
	48.28%	50.73%	0.91%					
	59.028	62.027	1.116					
	Total	122.27mm votes					
									
	12:22am Adjusted vote shares		            12:22am No adj.	
CATEGORY		Kerry	Bush	Other			Kerry	Bush Other
Total Votes		64.01	56.95	1.22			62.05	58.45	1.26
Percent	                52.39%	46.61%	1.00%			50.79%	47.84%	1.03%
2-party		        52.92%	47.08%				51.50%	48.50%	
									
									
Gender		        52.35%	46.65%	1.00%			50.78%	48.22%	1.00%
Party- ID		52.34%	46.66%	1.00%			50.69%	47.50%	1.27%
Voted 2000		52.39%	46.65%	0.96%			51.41%	47.62%	0.97%
Region		        52.41%	46.59%	1.00%			50.53%	47.95%	1.00%
Education		52.39%	46.61%	1.00%			50.43%	48.18%	1.39%
									
Race		        52.40%	46.60%	1.00%			50.94%	47.86%	1.00%
Age		        52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			50.26%	47.69%	1.05%
Income		        52.39%	46.61%	1.00%			51.39%	47.39%	0.94%
Ideology		52.40%	46.60%	1.00%			49.85%	48.15%	1.00%
Religion		52.48%	46.52%	1.00%			50.78%	47.94%	1.21%
									
Military		52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			51.20%	47.62%	1.00%
Decided		        52.37%	46.63%	1.00%			51.23%	47.95%	0.54%
										
____________________________________________________________________


12:22am Adjusted	................................  1:25pm Final

HOW VOTED IN 2000	
      Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No	23.56	19.27%	57%	41%	2%		17%	54%	45%	1%
Gore	48.23	39.45%	91%	8%	1%		37%	90%	10%	0%
Bush	47.71	39.02%	10%	90%	0%		43%	9%	91%	0%
Other	2.76	2.26%	71%	21%	8%		3%	71%	21%	3%
										
Total 			52.39%	46.65%	0.96%		       48.48%	51.11%	0.26%
	      122.27	64.05	57.04	1.17		122.08 59.28	62.49	0.32
										

GENDER	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Male 	56.73	46.40%	49.00%	50.00%	1.00%		46%	44%     55%	0%
Female 	65.54	53.60%	55.3%	43.7%	1.00%		54%	51%	48%	0%
										
Total 			52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			47.78%	51.22%	0.00%
	      122.27	64.04	57.01	1.22		121.04	58.42	62.63	0.00
										
	
PARTY ID	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem	46.46	38%	92%	7%	1%		37%	89%	11%	0%
Rep 	42.79	35%	8%	91%	1%		37%	6%	93%	0%
Ind	33.01	27%	54%	45%	1%		26%	49%	48%	1%
										
Total 			52.34%	46.66%	1.00%		        47.89%	50.96%	0.26%
	      122.27	63.99	57.05	1.22		121.18	58.55	62.31	0.32
																			
REGION	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
East	26.90	22%	59%	40%	1%		22%	56%	43%	1%
Midw	31.79	26%	51%	48%	1%		26%	48%	51%	0%
South	37.90	31%	47%	52%	1%		32%	42%	58%	0%
West	25.68	21%	55%	44%	1%		20%	50%	49%	1%
										
Total			52.36%	46.64%	1.00%		        48.24%	51.08%	0.42%
	      122.27	64.02	57.03	1.22		121.95	58.98	62.45	0.51
																			
EDUCATION	
      Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No HS	 4.89	4%	53%	46%	1%		4%	50%	49%	0%
HSGr 	26.90	22%	51%	48%	1%		22%	47%	52%	0%
Col 	37.90	31%	50%	49%	1%		32%	46%	54%	0%
ColGr	31.79	26%	52%	47%	1%		26%	46%	52%	1%
PostG	20.79	17%	59%	40%	1%		16%	55%	44%	1%
										
Total 		       52.39%	46.61%	1.00%		        47.82%	51.24%	0.42%
	      122.27	64.06	56.99	1.22		121.63	58.47	62.65	0.51
	
										
RACE AND GENDER	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
WMale   44.02	36%	43%	56%	1%		36%	37%	62%	0%
WFem	50.13	41%	48%	51%	1%		41%	44%	55%	0%
NWMale  12.23	10%	71%	28%	1%		10%	67%	30%	1%
NwFem	15.89	13%	78%	21%	1%		13%	75%	24%	1%
										
Total 			52.40%	46.60%	1.00%		        47.81%	50.99%	0.23%
 	      122.27	64.07	56.98	1.22		121.08	58.46	62.34	0.28
																			
AGE	
        Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
18-29 	20.79	17%	59%	40%	1%		17%	54%	45%	0%
30-44 	35.46	29%	50%	49%	1%		29%	46%	53%	1%
45-59 	36.68	30%	53%	46%	1%		30%	48%	51%	0%
60+ 	29.34	24%	50%	49%	1%		24%	46%	54%	0%
										
Total 			52.43%	46.57%	1.00%			47.96%	51.28%	0.29%
	       122.27	64.11	56.94	1.22		121.69	58.64	62.70	0.35
																			
INCOME	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
0-15K 	11.00	9%	66%	33%	1%		8%	63%	36%	0%
15-30 	18.34	15%	61%	38%	1%		15%	57%	42%	0%
30-50 	26.90	22%	54%	45%	1%		22%	50%	49%	0%
50-75 	28.12	23%	47%	52%	1%		23%	43%	56%	0%
75-100  15.89	13%	49%	50%	1%		14%	45%	55%	0%
100-150 13.45	11%	46%	53%	1%		11%	42%	57%	1%
150-200  4.89	4%	48%	51%	1%		4%	42%	58%	0%
200+ 	 3.67	3%	42%	57%	1%		3%	35%	63%	1%
										
Total 			52.39%	46.61%	1.00%			48.13%	51.02%	0.14%
	122.27	        64.06	56.99	1.22		121.40	58.85	62.38	0.17
																			
IDEOLOGY	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Lib 	26.90	22%	92%	7%	1%		21%	85%	13%	1%
Mod	55.02	45%	59%	40%	1%		45%	54%	45%	0%
Cons 	40.35	33%	17%	82%	1%		34%	15%	84%	0%
										
Total 			52.40%	46.60%	1.00%			47.25%	51.54%	0.21%
	      122.27	64.07	56.98	1.22		121.04	57.77	63.02	0.26
																			
RELIGION 
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Prot	64.80	53%	45%	54%	1%		53%	40%	59%	0%
Cath   33.01	27%	52%	47%	1%		27%	47%	52%	0%
Jewish	3.67	3%	77%	22%	1%		3%	74%	25%	0%
Other 	8.56	7%	74%	25%	1%		7%	74%	23%	1%
None 	12.23	10%	70%	29%	1%		10%	67%	31%	1%
										
Total 			52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			47.99%	50.77%	0.17%
	       122.27	64.04	57.00	1.22		120.96	58.68	62.07	0.21
																			
MILITARY	
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Yes 	22.01	18%	45%	54%	1%		18%	41%	57%	0%
No 	100.26	82%	54%	45%	1%		82%	50%	49%	0%
										
Total 			52.38%	46.62%	1.00%			48.38%	50.44%	0.00%
	      122.27	64.04	57.00	1.22		120.82	59.15	61.67	0.00
									
	
WHEN DECIDED
       Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Today 	7.34	6%	68%	31%	1%		5%	52%	45%	1%
Last3 	3.67	3%	68%	31%	1%		4%	55%	42%	1%
Last7 	2.45	2%	67%	32%	1%		2%	48%	51%	0%
Last30 	12.23	10%	62%	37%	1%		10%	54%	44%	1%
Over30	96.59	79%	49%	50%	1%		79%	46%	53%	0%
										
Total 			52.37%	46.63%	1.00%			47.50%	51.22%	0.19%
	      122.27	64.03	57.01	1.22		120.93	58.08	62.63	0.23

_______________________________________________________________________________


					NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS							
				     Nov.3, 2004, 12:22am  (13047 respondents)							
													
						Final Recorded Vote						
						Kerry	Bush	Other				
						48.28%	50.73%	0.91%				
						59.028	62.027	1.116				
						Total	122.267	votes				
													

		12:22am          		            12:22am Adjusted	
		
		CATEGORY        Kerry	Bush	Other		Kerry	Bush	Other		
		Total Votes	62.03	58.52	1.27		64.06	56.99	1.22		
		Percent	        50.73%	47.86%	1.04%		52.39%  46.61%	1.00%		
		2-party         51.46%	48.54%			52.92%	47.08%			
													
													
		Voted2000       51.41%	47.62%	0.82%		52.39%	46.65%	0.96%		
		Gender          50.78%	48.22%	1.00%		52.38%	46.62%	1.00%		
		Party-ID        50.69%	47.50%	1.27%		52.34%	46.66%	1.00%		
		Region          50.53%	47.95%	1.00%		52.36%	46.64%	1.00%		
		Education       50.43%	48.18%	1.39%		52.39%	46.61%	1.00%		
													
		Race            50.94%	47.86%	1.00%		52.40%	46.60%	1.00%		
		Age             50.26%	47.69%	1.05%		52.43%	46.57%	1.00%		
		Income          51.39%	47.39%	0.94%		52.39%	46.61%	1.00%		
		Ideology        49.85%	48.15%	1.00%		52.40%	46.60%	1.00%		
		Religion        50.78%	47.94%	1.21%		52.48%	46.52%	1.00%		
													
		Military        51.20%	47.62%	1.00%		52.38%	46.62%	1.00%		
		Decided         51.23%	47.95%	0.54%		52.37%	46.63%	1.00%		
														


____________________________________________________________________

		12:22am          		            12:22am Adj for Kerry 64mm vote 
	

								
VOTED IN 2000 *
Weights adj. for 98% turnout 
Kerry wins DNV by 3-2

		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No		20.75	17%	57%	41%	2%	100%		23.56	19.27%	57%	41%	2%
Gore		47.61	39%	91%	8%	1%	100%		48.23	39.45%	91%	8%	1%
Bush		50.06	41%	10%	90%	0%	100%		47.71	39.02%	10%	90%	0%
Other		3.66	3%	71%	21%	3%	95%		2.76	2.26%	71%	21%	8%
													
Total 				51.41%	47.62%	0.82%	99.85%				52.39%	46.65%	0.96%
		122.09		62.86	58.22	1.00	122.09		122.27		64.05	57.04	1.17



GENDER
No changes to weights 
(vote shares not sensitive to gender split)
Kerry wins 55% of females
and 49% of males
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Male 		56.24	46%	47%	52%	1%	100%		56.73	46.4%	49.0%	50.0%	1%
Female 		66.03	54%	54%	45%	1%	100%		65.54	53.6%	55.3%	43.7%	1%
													
Total 				50.78%	48.22%	1.00%	100.00%				52.38%	46.62%	1.00%
		122.27		62.09	58.96	1.22	122.27		122.27		64.04	57.01	1.22
													
PARTY ID *
Weights changed to 37/37/26 in FINAL 
Kerry wins Democrats and Independents by 3-1				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem		46.46	38%	90%	9%	1%	100%		46.46	38%	92%	7%	1%
Rep 		42.79	35%	7%	92%	1%	100%		42.79	35%	8%	91%	1%
Ind		33.01	27%	52%	44%	2%	98%		33.01	27%	54%	45%	1%
													
Total 				50.69%	47.50%	1.27%	99.46%				52.34%	46.66%	1.00%
		121.61		61.98	58.08	1.55	121.61		122.27		64.00	57.05	1.22
													
REGION
Weights changed in FINAL
Kerry wins all regions except the South				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
East		26.76	22%	58%	41%	1%	100%		26.90	22%	59%	40%	1%
Midw		31.62	26%	50%	49%	1%	100%		31.79	26%	51%	48%	1%
South		37.71	31%	44%	54%	1%	99%		37.90	31%	47%	52%	1%
West		25.54	21%	53%	45%	1%	99%		25.68	21%	55%	44%	1%
													
Total				50.53%	47.95%	1.00%	99.48%				52.36%	46.64%	1.00%
		121.63		61.78	58.63	1.22	121.63		122.27		64.02	57.03	1.22
													
EDUCATION
No changes to weights
Kerry wins 55% of college grads 				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No HS		4.89	4%	53%	46%	1%	100%		4.89	4%	53%	46%	1%
HS Grad 	26.90	22%	50%	48%	2%	100%		26.90	22%	51%	48%	1%
College 	37.90	31%	48%	51%	1%	100%		37.90	31%	50%	49%	1%
ColGrad 	31.79	26%	49%	50%	1%	100%		31.79	26%	52%	47%	1%
PostGrad	20.79	17%	57%	41%	2%	100%		20.79	17%	59%	40%	1%
													
Total 				50.43%	48.18%	1.39%	100.00%				52.39%	46.61%	1.00%
		122.27		61.66	58.91	1.70	122.27		122.27		64.06	56.99	1.22
													
RACE AND GENDER
No changes in weights in FINAL
Kerry wins Non-whites by 3-1				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Wmale		43.93	36%	41%	58%	1%	100%		44.02	36%	43%	56%	1%
Wfemale		50.03	41%	47%	52%	1%	100%		50.13	41%	48%	51%	1%
NWmale		12.20	10%	69%	28%	1%	98%		12.23	10%	71%	28%	1%
NWfemale	15.86	13%	77%	22%	1%	100%		15.90	13%	78%	21%	1%
													
Total 				50.94%	47.86%	1.00%	99.80%				52.40%	46.60%	1.00%
		122.03		62.28	58.52	1.22	122.03		122.27		64.07	56.98	1.22
				

AGE
No changes in weights in FINAL
Kerry wins New voters by 3-2				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
18-29 		20.58	17%	56%	42%	1%	99%		20.79	17%	59%	40%	1%
30-44 		35.10	29%	48%	49%	2%	99%		35.46	29%	50%	49%	1%
45-59 		36.31	30%	51%	47%	1%	99%		36.68	30%	53%	46%	1%
60 +		29.05	24%	48%	51%	0%	99%		29.34	24%	50%	49%	1%
													
Total 				50.26%	47.69%	1.05%	99.00%				52.43%	46.57%	1.00%
		121.05		61.45	58.31	1.28	121.05		122.27		64.11	56.94	1.22
													
INCOME
No changes in weights to FINAL	
Kerry wins under 50k income by almost 3-2				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
0-15K 		10.97	9%	65%	34%	1%	100%		11.00	9%	66%	33%	1%
15-30 		18.29	15%	60%	38%	1%	99%		18.34	15%	61%	38%	1%
30-50 		26.82	22%	53%	46%	1%	100%		26.90	22%	54%	45%	1%
50-75 		28.04	23%	46%	53%	1%	100%		28.12	23%	47%	52%	1%
75-100 		15.85	13%	48%	51%	0%	99%		15.90	13%	49%	50%	1%
100-150	        13.41	11%	45%	53%	2%	100%		13.45	11%	46%	53%	1%
150-200          4.88	4%	47%	53%	0%	100%		4.89	4%	48%	51%	1%
200+ 		3.66	3%	41%	58%	1%	100%		3.67	3%	42%	57%	1%
													
Total 				51.39%	47.39%	0.94%	99.72%				52.39%	46.61%	1.00%
		121.93		62.83	57.94	1.15	121.93		122.27		64.06	56.99	1.22
													
IDEOLOGY *
Change weights to 21/45/34 in FINAL
Kerry wins Liberals and Moderates by 2-1				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Lib 		26.63	22%	86%	12%	1%	99%		26.90	22%	92%	7%	1%
Mod		54.47	45%	57%	41%	1%	99%		55.02	45%	59%	40%	1%
Con		39.95	33%	16%	82%	1%	99%		40.35	33%	17%	82%	1%
													
Total 				49.85%	48.15%	1.00%	99.00%				52.40%	46.60%	1.00%
		121.05		60.95	58.87	1.22	121.05		122.27		64.07	56.98	1.22
													
RELIGION
No changes to weights in FINAL			
Kerry wins Catholics and minorities  by 3-2				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Prot		64.76	53%	43%	56%	1%	100%		64.80	53%	45%	54%	1%
Cath		32.99	27%	50%	49%	1%	100%		33.01	27%	52%	47%	1%
Jewish      	3.67	3%	78%	22%	0%	100%		3.67	3%	77%	22%	1%
Other       	8.55	7%	75%	21%	3%	99%		8.56	7%	74%	25%	1%
None 		12.22	10%	69%	29%	2%	100%		12.23	10%	71%	28%	1%
													
Total 				50.78%	47.94%	1.21%	99.93%				52.48%	46.52%	1.00%
		122.18		62.09	58.62	1.48	122.18		122.27		64.17	56.88	1.22
													
MILITARY
No changes to weights in FINAL
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Yes 		21.97	18%	43%	55%	1%	99%		22.01	18%	45%	54%	1%
No 		100.08	82%	53%	46%	1%	100%		100.26	82%	54%	45%	1%
													
Total 				51.20%	47.62%	1.00%	99.82%				52.38%	46.62%	1.00%
		122.05		62.60	58.22	1.22	122.05		122.27		64.05	57.00	1.22
													
WHEN DECIDED
Slight changes to weights in FINAL 	
Kerry wins Late undecideds by 2-1				
		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total		Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Today 		7.32	6%	53%	40%	5%	98%		7.34	6%	68%	31%	1%
Last3 		3.66	3%	53%	41%	4%	98%		3.67	3%	68%	31%	1%
Last7		2.44	2%	48%	51%	1%	100%		2.45	2%	67%	32%	1%
Last30		12.19	10%	60%	38%	1%	99%		12.23	10%	62%	37%	1%
Over30		96.32	79%	50%	50%	0%	100%		96.59	79%	49%	50%	1%
													
Total 				51.23%	47.95%	0.54%	99.72%				52.37%	46.63%	1.00%
		121.93		62.64	58.63	0.66	121.93		122.27		64.03	57.01	1.22

													
________________________________________________________________________

THE PROBABILITIES

NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Assuming a 1.0% MoE (actually it's 0.86% for 13047 respondents) and a given
cluster effect, this is a probability table for the 4.1% Bush discrepancy
(46.6% in the poll > 50.7% in the vote): 

......... Probability
Cluster    1 in
0       2251 trillion
10%        7 trillion
20%       93 billion
30%        3 billion
40%      210 million
50%     23.6 million
60%      3.9 million



STATE EXIT POLLS

The margin of error (MoE) was exceeded in N= 16 states for Bush.
Assuming the given cluster effect, the Probability that the MoE would be
exceeded in at least N states is: 

......Probability
N        1 in
1           1
2           3
3           8
4          28
5         123
6         662
7       4,214
8      31,188
9     264,775
10   2.55 million  < cluster effect = 30% 

11   27 million
12  334 million
13  4.5 billion    < cluster = 20%
14   66 billion    < cluster = 10%
15   1 trillion     

16  19 trillion    < Zero cluster

__________________________________________________________________________


National Exit Poll Sensitivity Analysis 

For the sensitivity analysis, we assume 
a) 12:22am NEP timeline
b) 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout 
c) Declining Gore voter turnout (from 100% to 71%). 

The analysis shows that even with a LARGE Bush 2000 voter turnout 
advantage, there is not ONE PLAUSIBLE Bush victory SCENARIO.

At the 12:22am timeline:
Kerry won 57% of those who DID NOT VOTE (DNV) in 2000.

For Kerry to TIE Bush, he needed a MINIMUM 80% Gore voter turnout.
Very plausible.

For Bush to WIN by 3 mm votes, he needed a MAXIMUM 71% Gore voter turnout.
Not plausible.



At the 1:25pm Final timeline:
Kerry won 54% of those who DID NOT VOTE in 2000

For Kerry to TIE Bush, he needed a MINIMUM 85% Gore voter turnout. 
Very plausible.

For Bush to WIN by 3 mm votes, he needed a MAXIMUM 77% Gore voter turnout.
Not plausible.


		    National Exit Poll Sensitivity Analysis 				
                
                New Voter Share and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout
                Impact on Kerry Vote Percentage and Margin
	         (assume 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout) 								
													
		    Timeline        7:33pm		12:22am			1:25pm								

	   Turnout	 DNV        Kerry% of DNV 2000 
	Gore	Weight	2000	60%	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%	53%	52%	51%
													
						Kerry National Vote 						
													
	100%	40.28%	17.58%	52.81%	52.64%	52.46%	52.28%	52.11%	51.93%	51.76%	51.58%	51.41%	51.23%
	99%	39.88%	17.98%	52.69%	52.51%	52.33%	52.15%	51.97%	51.79%	51.61%	51.43%	51.25%	51.07%
	98%	39.48%	18.39%	52.56%	52.38%	52.19%	52.01%	51.83%	51.64%	51.46%	51.27%	51.09%	50.91%
	97%	39.08%	18.79%	52.44%	52.25%	52.06%	51.87%	51.69%	51.50%	51.31%	51.12%	50.93%	50.75%
	96%	38.67%	19.19%	52.31%	52.12%	51.93%	51.74%	51.54%	51.35%	51.16%	50.97%	50.78%	50.58%
													
	95%	38.27%	19.60%	52.19%	51.99%	51.80%	51.60%	51.40%	51.21%	51.01%	50.82%	50.62%	50.42%
	94%	37.87%	20.00%	52.06%	51.86%	51.66%	51.46%	51.26%	51.06%	50.86%	50.66%	50.46%	50.26%
	93%	37.46%	20.40%	51.94%	51.73%	51.53%	51.33%	51.12%	50.92%	50.71%	50.51%	50.31%	50.10%
	92%	37.06%	20.80%	51.81%	51.60%	51.40%	51.19%	50.98%	50.77%	50.56%	50.36%	50.15%	49.94%
	91%	36.66%	21.21%	51.69%	51.48%	51.26%	51.05%	50.84%	50.63%	50.42%	50.20%	49.99%	49.78%
													
	90%	36.26%	21.61%	51.56%	51.35%	51.13%	50.91%	50.70%	50.48%	50.27%	50.05%	49.83%	49.62%
	89%	35.85%	22.01%	51.44%	51.22%	51.00%	50.78%	50.56%	50.34%	50.12%	49.90%	49.68%	49.46%
	88%	35.45%	22.42%	51.31%	51.09%	50.86%	50.64%	50.42%	50.19%	49.97%	49.74%	49.52%	49.30%
	87%	35.05%	22.82%	51.19%	50.96%	50.73%	50.50%	50.28%	50.05%	49.82%	49.59%	49.36%	49.13%
	86%	34.64%	23.22%	51.06%	50.83%	50.60%	50.37%	50.13%	49.90%	49.67%	49.44%	49.21%	48.97%
													
	85%	34.24%	23.62%	50.94%	50.70%	50.47%	50.23%	49.99%	49.76%	49.52%	49.28%	49.05%	48.81%
	84%	33.84%	24.03%	50.81%	50.57%	50.33%	50.09%	49.85%	49.61%	49.37%	49.13%	48.89%	48.65%
	83%	33.44%	24.43%	50.69%	50.44%	50.20%	49.96%	49.71%	49.47%	49.22%	48.98%	48.73%	48.49%
	82%	33.03%	24.83%	50.56%	50.32%	50.07%	49.82%	49.57%	49.32%	49.07%	48.83%	48.58%	48.33%
	81%	32.63%	25.24%	50.44%	50.19%	49.93%	49.68%	49.43%	49.18%	48.92%	48.67%	48.42%	48.17%
													
	80%	32.23%	25.64%	50.31%	50.06%	49.80%	49.54%	49.29%	49.03%	48.78%	48.52%	48.26%	48.01%
	79%	31.82%	26.04%	50.19%	49.93%	49.67%	49.41%	49.15%	48.89%	48.63%	48.37%	48.11%	47.85%
	78%	31.42%	26.44%	50.06%	49.80%	49.54%	49.27%	49.01%	48.74%	48.48%	48.21%	47.95%	47.68%
	77%	31.02%	26.85%	49.94%	49.67%	49.40%	49.13%	48.87%	48.60%	48.33%	48.06%	47.79%	47.52%
	76%	30.62%	27.25%	49.81%	49.54%	49.27%	49.00%	48.72%	48.45%	48.18%	47.91%	47.63%	47.36%
													
	75%	30.21%	27.65%	49.69%	49.41%	49.14%	48.86%	48.58%	48.31%	48.03%	47.75%	47.48%	47.20%
	74%	29.81%	28.06%	49.56%	49.28%	49.00%	48.72%	48.44%	48.16%	47.88%	47.60%	47.32%	47.04%
	73%	29.41%	28.46%	49.44%	49.16%	48.87%	48.59%	48.30%	48.02%	47.73%	47.45%	47.16%	46.88%
	72%	29.00%	28.86%	49.32%	49.03%	48.74%	48.45%	48.16%	47.87%	47.58%	47.29%	47.01%	46.72%
	71%	28.60%	29.26%	49.19%	48.90%	48.60%	48.31%	48.02%	47.73%	47.43%	47.14%	46.85%	46.56%
													
													
		
		    Timeline        7:33pm		12:22am			1:25pm				

	  Turnout	 DNV        Kerry% of DNV 2000 
	Gore	Weight	2000	60%	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%	53%	52%	51%
				

						Kerry Vote Margin (millions)						

	100%	40.28%	17.58%	8.01	7.59	7.16	6.73	6.30	5.87	5.44	5.01	4.58	4.15
	99%	39.88%	17.98%	7.71	7.27	6.83	6.39	5.95	5.51	5.07	4.63	4.19	3.75
	98%	39.48%	18.39%	7.40	6.96	6.51	6.06	5.61	5.16	4.71	4.26	3.81	3.36
	97%	39.08%	18.79%	7.10	6.64	6.18	5.72	5.26	4.80	4.34	3.89	3.43	2.97
	96%	38.67%	19.19%	6.79	6.33	5.86	5.39	4.92	4.45	3.98	3.51	3.04	2.57
													
	95%	38.27%	19.60%	6.49	6.01	5.53	5.05	4.57	4.09	3.62	3.14	2.66	2.18
	94%	37.87%	20.00%	6.18	5.70	5.21	4.72	4.23	3.74	3.25	2.76	2.27	1.79
	93%	37.46%	20.40%	5.88	5.38	4.88	4.38	3.88	3.39	2.89	2.39	1.89	1.39
	92%	37.06%	20.80%	5.57	5.07	4.56	4.05	3.54	3.03	2.52	2.02	1.51	1.00
	91%	36.66%	21.21%	5.27	4.75	4.23	3.71	3.20	2.68	2.16	1.64	1.12	0.60
													
	90%	36.26%	21.61%	4.96	4.44	3.91	3.38	2.85	2.32	1.80	1.27	0.74	0.21
	89%	35.85%	22.01%	4.66	4.12	3.58	3.04	2.51	1.97	1.43	0.89	0.36	-0.18
	88%	35.45%	22.42%	4.35	3.81	3.26	2.71	2.16	1.61	1.07	0.52	-0.03	-0.58
	87%	35.05%	22.82%	4.05	3.49	2.93	2.38	1.82	1.26	0.70	0.15	-0.41	-0.97
	86%	34.64%	23.22%	3.74	3.18	2.61	2.04	1.47	0.91	0.34	-0.23	-0.80	-1.36
													
	85%	34.24%	23.62%	3.44	2.86	2.28	1.71	1.13	0.55	-0.03	-0.60	-1.18	-1.76
	84%	33.84%	24.03%	3.13	2.55	1.96	1.37	0.78	0.20	-0.39	-0.98	-1.56	-2.15
	83%	33.44%	24.43%	2.83	2.23	1.63	1.04	0.44	-0.16	-0.75	-1.35	-1.95	-2.54
	82%	33.03%	24.83%	2.52	1.92	1.31	0.70	0.10	-0.51	-1.12	-1.73	-2.33	-2.94
	81%	32.63%	25.24%	2.22	1.60	0.98	0.37	-0.25	-0.87	-1.48	-2.10	-2.72	-3.33
													
	80%	32.23%	25.64%	1.91	1.29	0.66	0.03	-0.59	-1.22	-1.85	-2.47	-3.10	-3.73
	79%	31.82%	26.04%	1.61	0.97	0.33	-0.30	-0.94	-1.57	-2.21	-2.85	-3.48	-4.12
	78%	31.42%	26.44%	1.30	0.66	0.01	-0.64	-1.28	-1.93	-2.58	-3.22	-3.87	-4.51
	77%	31.02%	26.85%	1.00	0.34	-0.32	-0.97	-1.63	-2.28	-2.94	-3.60	-4.25	-4.91
	76%	30.62%	27.25%	0.69	0.03	-0.64	-1.31	-1.97	-2.64	-3.30	-3.97	-4.64	-5.30
													
	75%	30.21%	27.65%	0.39	-0.29	-0.97	-1.64	-2.32	-2.99	-3.67	-4.34	-5.02	-5.69
	74%	29.81%	28.06%	0.08	-0.60	-1.29	-1.98	-2.66	-3.35	-4.03	-4.72	-5.40	-6.09
	73%	29.41%	28.46%	-0.22	-0.92	-1.61	-2.31	-3.01	-3.70	-4.40	-5.09	-5.79	-6.48
	72%	29.00%	28.86%	-0.53	-1.23	-1.94	-2.64	-3.35	-4.06	-4.76	-5.47	-6.17	-6.88
	71%	28.60%	29.26%	-0.83	-1.55	-2.26	-2.98	-3.69	-4.41	-5.12	-5.84	-6.55	-7.27
						

_______________________________________________________________

ASSUME 100% TURNOUT OF GORE AND BUSH 2000 VOTERS

Calculate the MAXIMUM weights:

Voted	2000	Pct	Died	Alive	Revised				
Gore 	51.00	41.75%	1.79	49.22	40.28%				
Bush 	50.46	41.30%	1.77	48.69	39.85%				
Nader	2.88	2.36%	0.10	2.78	2.28%							


	          12:22am (13047 respondents)		 Final 1:25pm (13660)
Voted
2000	Weight	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total	
No	17.58%	21.48	57%	41%	2%	100%	17.58%	54%	45%	1%	100%	
Gore	40.28%	49.22	91%	8%	1%	100%	40.28%	90%	10%	0%	100%	
Bush	39.85%	48.69	10%	90%	0%	100%	39.85%	9%	91%	0%	100%	
Other	2.28%	2.79	71%	21%	8%	100%	2.28%	71%	21%	8%	100%	

Total 	100%		52.28%	46.78%	0.94%		100%	50.96%	48.69%	0.36%		
Vote 		122.17	63.88	57.15	1.14		122.17	62.25	59.48	0.44		
	Kerry	Margin: 6.73 million		 Kerry Margin: 2.77 million

The Vote shares change slightly compared to the 98% turnout assumed above.
As previously stated, LOWER 2000 voter turnout helps Kerry, since there must be
more DNV to make up the difference (total 2004 vote is 122.3mm). 

Conversely, HIGHER 2000 voter turnout helps Bush. 
Note that 100% turnout adds 0.12% to Bush and takes 0.12% from Kerry, compared
to 98% turnout: Kerry 52.28%; Bush 46.78%

Let's re-calculate the probabilities of vote discrepancies based on a 100%
(unrealistic) 2000 voter turnout. 

We use 1.05% as the MoE based assuming a 20% CLUSTER effect:

Probability P1 of 3.96% Kerry vote discrepancy:
P1= 1 in 15.0 trillion = 1/(NORMDIST(.5228,.4832,.0105/1.96,TRUE)

Probability P2 of 3.99% Bush vote discrepancy:
P2= 1 in 20.8 trillion = 1/(NORMDIST(.4678,.5077,.0105/1.96,TRUE)

Probability P3 of the discrepancy exceeding the MoE in 16 states: 
P3 = 1 in 19.1 trillion = 1 - BINOMDIST(15, 50, ,025, true)

Note that P3 for the states is totally independent of P1 and P2 (national)
yet the probabilities are in CONFIRMATION.

One in 15-20 TRILLION!

__________________________________________________________________________


CENSUS WEIGHTS APPLIED TO NEP DEMOGRAPHICS			


EDUCATION
Fewer College grads than NEP
	
     Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
No HS	 9.85	8.06%	53%	46%	1%
HSG 	34.91	28.55%	51%	48%	1%
Colg 	37.84	30.95%	50%	49%	1%
ColGr	25.85	21.14%	52%	47%	1%
Post	13.82	11.30%	59%	40%	1%
					
Total	        100%	51.97% 47.03% 1.00%
	122.27	        63.54  57.51  1.22



INCOME 

Fewer respondents than NEP under 50k. 
Did they inflate for the census?Or low-ball the NEP?

      Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
0-15K 	7.01	5.73%	66%	33%	1%
15-30 	14.77	12.08%	61%	38%	1%
30-50 	25.16	20.58%	54%	45%	1%
50-75 	29.37	24.02%	47%	52%	1%
75-100 	19.20	15.70%	49%	50%	1%
100-150 16.57	13.55%	46%	53%	1%
150-200 6.53	5.34%	48%	51%	1%
200+ 	3.67	3.00%	42%	57%	1%
					
Total 	       100.0%	51.30%  47.70%	1.00%
	122.27		62.73	58.32	1.22


AGE
Exactly matches 64 million votes to Kerry	

      Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
18-29 	21.73	17.77%	57%	42%	1%
30-44 	31.25	25.56%	51%	48%	1%
45-59 	34.52	28.23%	53%	46%	1%
60+ 	34.77	28.44%	50%	49%	1%
					
Total 		100.0%	52.35%	46.65%	1.00%
	122.27		64.00	57.04   1.22

________________________________________________________________

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/NEP13047.mh...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.