2004 National Polling Monthly Data 
Nine corporate and 9 independent pollsters

Kerry's net gains from Ovt. 1 to Nov. 1:
IBD - 4, ABC +7, AP +12, NWK +2, ARG +2, NBC +2
FOX + 5, CBS +7, CNN +9, PEW +9, LAT +5, ZOGBY +2
TIME -1, DEM CORP +1, MARIST +3, HARRIS +5, ECONOMIST +3, ICR +5

The 9 Independent National Pollsters:
IBD, ICR, ARG, Pew, ZOGBY, DEMCORP, MARIST, Harris, Economist. 
The final 9-poll average: Kerry 47.11; Bush 46.56

Based on the 9-poll group average, assuming that 75% of undecided voters 
would vote for Kerry, the National Election Model projected that he 
would win 51.86% of the two-party vote. 

Based on the 18 poll average, the Model projected that he would win 51.63%. 

The 9-poll projections shown below assumed that Kerry would get 60% of the
undecided and former Nader voters to win 50.91% of two-party vote, 
a very CONSERVATIVE estimate.

Kerry led in each month from February through August.He fell behind in
September but rebounded to take the lead by the end of October.
Kerry had the BIG MO.

According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll: 
Kerry won 71% of Nader voters and 62% of late undecided voters. 
Historically, challengers have won 60-80% of the undecided vote.

Kerry's projected 2-party vote (KP) was the sum of the average of the
pre-election polls and his Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA) share.
KP = Poll average + UVA * (100 - Kerry - Bush)

For the 9 independent polls, Kerry's average was 47.11%.
Assuming that he won 60% UVA, his projected 2-party vote was:
KP = 47.11 +0.6* (100 - 47.11 - 46.56)
KP = 47.11 +0.6* 6.33 = 50.91

The combined 9-poll sample size was approximately 15,000.
The corresponding MoE = 1/sqrt(15000) = 0.80%

Therefore, Kerry's popular vote win probability was 98.7%, based on his
projected 50.91% vote share and the 0.80% Margin of Error. 
The probability P is calculated using the Excel Normal Distribution.
 P = NORMDIST(0.5091, 0.50, MoE/1.96, TRUE)
 P = 98.7%
________________________________________________________________

Monthly Statistical Trend
Group Average of 9 Independent Polls 

								
				2-pty	Proj.			Curr	Proj.
Month	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	K/K+B	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Prob	Prob

Jan 	44.00	49.00	-5.00	47.31%	48.20	51.80	-3.60	0.0	0.0
Feb	47.50	45.25	2.25	51.21%	51.85	48.15	3.70	99.8	100.0
Mar	47.60	45.20	2.40	51.29%	51.92	48.08	3.84	99.9	100.0
Apr	46.40	45.40	1.00	50.54%	51.32	48.68	2.64	90.4	99.9
May	47.20	44.00	3.20	51.75%	52.48	47.52	4.96	100.0	100.0
June	46.00	45.60	0.40	50.22%	51.04	48.96	2.08	70.0	99.4
July	47.33	44.33	3.00	51.64%	52.33	47.67	4.67	100.0	100.0
Aug	47.83	44.50	3.33	51.81%	52.43	47.57	4.87	100.0	100.0
Sept	45.00	47.44	-2.44	48.68%	49.53	50.47	-0.93	0.1	13.1
Oct	47.11	46.56	0.55	50.29%	50.91	49.09	1.82	76.0	98.7
								
AVG	46.89	45.37	1.52	50.82%	51.54	48.46	3.07	97.61	99.99
2004

__________________________________________________________________								
Monthly Statistical Trend Detail
18 Corporate and Independent Polls 

Notice the sharp increase in Kerry's numbers from September to October
(he gained in 16 of the 18 polls).

	Actual Polling Data   Proj. 2-party vote	Kerry Win Prob	
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Current	Proj.	

IBD									
Feb	44	41	3	53.0	47.0	6.0	86.0%	96.7%	
Mar	45	43	2	52.2	47.8	4.4	75.7%	91.1%	
Apr	40	44	-4	49.6	50.4	-0.8	7.2%	40.3%	
May	43	42	1	52.0	48.0	4.0	64.1%	89.0%	
June	43	44	-1	50.8	49.2	1.6	36.2%	68.8%	
July	46	43	3	52.6	47.4	5.2	84.9%	94.4%	
Aug	44	44	0	51.2	48.8	2.4	50.0%	76.9%	
Sept	46	45	1	51.4	48.6	2.8	63.2%	80.4%	
Oct	44	47	-3	49.4	50.6	-1.2	15.6%	35.7%	
									
AVG	43.89	43.67	0.22	51.36	48.64	2.71	53.1%	79.7%	
									
ABC									
Feb	52	43	9	55.0	45.0	10.0	99.8%	99.9%	
Mar	53	44	9	54.8	45.2	9.6	99.8%	99.8%	
Apr	48	49	-1	49.8	50.2	-0.4	37.6%	45.1%	
May	49	47	2	51.4	48.6	2.8	73.8%	80.4%
June	53	45	8	54.2	45.8	8.4	99.4%	99.5%
July	47	49	-2	49.4	50.6	-1.2	26.2%	35.7%
Aug	49	48	1	50.8	49.2	1.6	62.4%	68.8%
Sept	45	51	-6	47.4	52.6	-5.2	2.8%	5.6%
Oct	48	47	1	51.0	49.0	2.0	62.6%	73.0%
								
AVG	49.33	47.00	2.33	51.53	48.47	3.07	77.1%	82.6%
								
AP								
Jan 	37	54	-17	42.4	57.6	-15.2	0.0%	0.0%
Feb								
Mar	45	46	-1	50.4	49.6	0.8	36.8%	59.7%
Apr	44	45	-1	50.6	49.4	1.2	36.5%	64.3%
May	43	46	-3	49.6	50.4	-0.8	15.1%	40.3%
June	43	46	-3	49.6	50.4	-0.8	15.1%	40.3%
July	45	49	-4	48.6	51.4	-2.8	9.6%	19.6%
Aug	48	45	3	52.2	47.8	4.4	83.8%	91.1%
Sept	42	51	-9	46.2	53.8	-7.6	0.2%	1.0%
Oct	49	46	3	52.0	48.0	4.0	83.3%	89.0%
								
AVG	44.88	46.75	-1.88	49.90	50.10	-0.20	26.5%	47.6%
								
NWK								
Jan 	41	52	-11	45.2	54.8	-9.6	0.0%	0.2%
Feb	50	45	5	53.0	47.0	6.0	94.7%	96.7%
Mar	48	45	3	52.2	47.8	4.4	83.8%	91.1%
Apr	50	43	7	54.2	45.8	8.4	98.9%	99.5%
May	46	45	1	51.4	48.6	2.8	63.2%	80.4%
June	46	45	1	51.4	48.6	2.8	63.2%	80.4%
July	51	45	6	53.4	46.6	6.8	97.2%	98.1%
Aug	52	44	8	54.4	45.6	8.8	99.5%	99.6%
Sept	45	50	-5	48.0	52.0	-4.0	5.3%	11.0%
Oct	45	48	-3	49.2	50.8	-1.6	16.2%	31.2%
								
AVG	48.11	45.56	2.56	51.91	48.09	3.82	79.8%	87.9%
								
ARG								
Jan 	47	46	1	51.2	48.8	2.4	62.9%	76.9%
Feb	48	46	2	51.6	48.4	3.2	74.3%	83.6%
Mar	50	43	7	54.2	45.8	8.4	98.9%	99.5%
Apr	50	44	6	53.6	46.4	7.2	97.5%	98.6%
May	47	44	3	52.4	47.6	4.8	84.4%	92.9%
June	48	46	2	51.6	48.4	3.2	74.3%	83.6%
July	49	45	4	52.6	47.4	5.2	90.4%	94.4%
Aug	49	46	3	52.0	48.0	4.0	83.3%	89.0%
Sep	46	47	-1	50.2	49.8	0.4	37.1%	54.9%
Oct	49	48	1	50.8	49.2	1.6	62.4%	68.8%
								
AVG	48.44	45.44	3.00	52.11	47.89	4.22	83.6%	90.2%
								
NBC								
Jan 	35	54	-19	41.6	58.4	-16.8	0.0%	0.0%
Feb								
Mar	43	46	-3	49.6	50.4	-0.8	15.1%	40.3%
Apr	43	46	-3	49.6	50.4	-0.8	15.1%	40.3%
May	42	46	-4	49.2	50.8	-1.6	8.2%	31.2%
June	44	45	-1	50.6	49.4	1.2	36.5%	64.3%
July	45	47	-2	49.8	50.2	-0.4	25.3%	45.1%
Aug	45	47	-2	49.8	50.2	-0.4	25.3%	45.1%
Sep	46	49	-3	49.0	51.0	-2.0	16.7%	27.0%
Oct	47	48	-1	50.0	50.0	0.0	37.4%	50.0%
								
AVG	44.38	46.75	-2.38	49.70	50.30	-0.60	21.2%	42.7%
								
FOX								
Jan 	32	54	-22	40.4	59.6	-19.2	0.0%	0.0%
Feb	43	47	-4	49.0	51.0	-2.0	8.7%	27.0%
Mar	44	44	0	51.2	48.8	2.4	50.0%	76.9%
Apr	42	43	-1	51.0	49.0	2.0	35.9%	73.0%
May	42	42	0	51.6	48.4	3.2	50.0%	83.6%
June	42	48	-6	48.0	52.0	-4.0	2.1%	11.0%
July	42	43	-1	51.0	49.0	2.0	35.9%	73.0%
Aug	45	44	1	51.6	48.4	3.2	63.5%	83.6%
Sep	43	45	-2	50.2	49.8	0.4	24.3%	54.9%
Oct	48	45	3	52.2	47.8	4.4	83.8%	91.1%
								
AVG	43.44	44.56	-1.11	50.64	49.36	1.29	34.9%	65.3%
								
CBS								
Jan 	48	43	5	53.4	46.6	6.8	95.4%	98.1%
Feb	47	46	1	51.2	48.8	2.4	62.9%	76.9%
Mar	48	43	5	53.4	46.6	6.8	95.4%	98.1%
Apr	48	43	5	53.4	46.6	6.8	95.4%	98.1%
May	49	41	8	55.0	45.0	10.0	99.7%	99.9%
June	45	44	1	51.6	48.4	3.2	63.5%	83.6%
July	49	44	5	53.2	46.8	6.4	95.0%	97.5%
Aug	45	44	1	51.6	48.4	3.2	63.5%	83.6%
Sep	41	49	-8	47.0	53.0	-6.0	0.3%	3.3%
Oct	46	47	-1	50.2	49.8	0.4	37.1%	54.9%
								
AVG	46.44	44.56	1.89	51.84	48.16	3.69	73.8%	87.1%
								
CNN/GALLUP								
Jan 	43	55	-12	44.2	55.8	-11.6	0.0%	0.0%
Feb	48	49	-1	49.8	50.2	-0.4	37.6%	45.1%
Mar	52	44	8	54.4	45.6	8.8	99.5%	99.6%
Apr	46	51	-5	47.8	52.2	-4.4	5.7%	8.9%
May	49	47	2	51.4	48.6	2.8	73.8%	80.4%
June	48	49	-1	49.8	50.2	-0.4	37.6%	45.1%
July	51	44	7	54.0	46.0	8.0	98.8%	99.3%
Aug	48	47	1	51.0	49.0	2.0	62.6%	73.0%
Sep	44	52	-8	46.4	53.6	-7.2	0.5%	1.4%
Oct	48	47	1	51.0	49.0	2.0	62.6%	73.0%
								
AVG	48.22	47.78	0.44	50.62	49.38	1.24	55.6%	64.8%
								
PEW								
Jan 	41	52	-11	45.2	54.8	-9.6	0.0%	0.2%
Feb	47	47	0	50.6	49.4	1.2	50.0%	64.3%
Mar	48	44	4	52.8	47.2	5.6	90.8%	95.7%
Apr	47	46	1	51.2	48.8	2.4	62.9%	76.9%
May	50	45	5	53.0	47.0	6.0	94.7%	96.7%
June	46	48	-2	49.6	50.4	-0.8	25.7%	40.3%
July	46	44	2	52.0	48.0	4.0	75.2%	89.0%
Aug	47	45	2	51.8	48.2	3.6	74.7%	86.5%
Sep	40	48	-8	47.2	52.8	-5.6	0.3%	4.3%
Oct	46	45	1	51.4	48.6	2.8	63.2%	80.4%
								
AVG	46.33	45.78	0.56	51.07	48.93	2.13	57.3%	74.3%
								
LAT								
Apr	49	46	3	52.0	48.0	4.0	83.3%	89.0%
May	49	46	3	52.0	48.0	4.0	83.3%	89.0%
June	51	44	7	54.0	46.0	8.0	98.8%	99.3%
July	48	46	2	51.6	48.4	3.2	74.3%	83.6%
Aug	46	49	-3	49.0	51.0	-2.0	16.7%	27.0%
Sep	43	47	-4	49.0	51.0	-2.0	8.7%	27.0%
Oct	48	47	1	51.0	49.0	2.0	62.6%	73.0%
								
AVG	47.71	46.43	1.29	51.23	48.77	2.46	66.2%	77.4%
								
ZOGBY								
Mar	48	46	2	51.6	48.4	3.2	74.3%	83.6%
Apr	47	44	3	52.4	47.6	4.8	84.4%	92.9%
May	47	42	5	53.6	46.4	7.2	95.7%	98.6%
June	44	42	2	52.4	47.6	4.8	76.2%	92.9%
July	48	43	5	53.4	46.6	6.8	95.4%	98.1%
Aug	50	43	7	54.2	45.8	8.4	98.9%	99.5%
Sep	44	47	-3	49.4	50.6	-1.2	15.6%	35.7%
Oct	47	48	-1	50.0	50.0	0.0	37.4%	50.0%
								
AVG	46.88	44.38	2.50	52.13	47.88	4.25	79.9%	90.3%
								
TIME								
Jan	43	54	-11	44.8	55.2	-10.4	0.0%	0.1%
Feb	48	50	-2	49.2	50.8	-1.6	26.6%	31.2%
Mar								
Apr								
May	51	46	5	52.8	47.2	5.6	94.3%	95.7%
June	51	46	5	52.8	47.2	5.6	94.3%	95.7%
July	50	45	5	53.0	47.0	6.0	94.7%	96.7%
Aug	46	46	0	50.8	49.2	1.6	50.0%	68.8%
Sep	44	48	-4	48.8	51.2	-2.4	9.2%	23.1%
Oct	46	51	-5	47.8	52.2	-4.4	5.7%	8.9%
									
AVG	48.00	47.43	0.57	50.74	49.26	1.49	57.3%	67.5%	
									
DEMCORP									
Feb	51	47	4	52.2	47.8	4.4	89.4%	91.1%	
Mar	47	50	-3	48.8	51.2	-2.4	17.2%	23.1%	
Apr	48	49	-1	49.8	50.2	-0.4	37.6%	45.1%	
May	49	47	2	51.4	48.6	2.8	73.8%	80.4%	
June	49	48	1	50.8	49.2	1.6	62.4%	68.8%	
July	50	47	3	51.8	48.2	3.6	82.8%	86.5%	
Aug	52	45	7	53.8	46.2	7.6	98.6%	99.0%	
Sep	49	49	0	50.2	49.8	0.4	50.0%	54.9%	
Oct	48	47	1	51.0	49.0	2.0	62.6%	73.0%	
									
AVG	49.22	47.67	1.56	51.09	48.91	2.18	68.9%	74.8%	
								
MARIST								
July	45	44	1	51.6	48.4	3.2	63.5%	83.6%
Aug	45	44	1	51.6	48.4	3.2	63.5%	83.6%
Sep	45	47	-2	49.8	50.2	-0.4	25.3%	45.1%
Oct	49	48	1	50.8	49.2	1.6	62.4%	68.8%
								
AVG	46.00	45.75	0.25	50.95	49.05	1.90	53.3%	72.0%
								
HARRIS								
Sep	46	48	-2	49.6	50.4	-0.8	25.7%	40.3%
Oct	50	47	3	51.8	48.2	3.6	82.8%	86.5%
								
Avg	48.00	47.50	0.50	50.70	49.30	1.40	56.4%	66.6%
								
ECONOMIST								
Sep	46	46	0	50.8	49.2	1.6	50.0%	68.8%
Oct	50	47	3	51.8	48.2	3.6	82.8%	86.5%
								
Avg	48.00	46.50	1.50	51.30	48.70	2.60	68.7%	78.7%
								
ICR								
Sep	43	50	-7	47.2	52.8	-5.6	1.1%	4.3%
Oct	44	46	-2	50.0	50.0	0.0	24.8%	50.0%
								
Avg	43.50	48.00	-4.50	48.60	51.40	-2.80	6.6%	19.6%
								

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

First, it shows the tremendous hit Kerry took from the Swift Boat liars. Second, it shows that the trend was reversing itself by October. If anyone remembers the excitement of the last few days before the election, the Kerry excitement, then that intuition and this data match to tell the truth of what happened.

Great work.

Obrador for President Site