The pre-election state polls, adjusted for undecided voter 
allocations (UVA), matched the exit polls. 

This is nothing new; I have posted analyses to show that 
the average of PRE-ELECTION state polls matched the national 
polls AND the POST-ELECTION state and national EXIT polls. 

Well, they didn't match the FINAL EXITS. 
The Finals were matched to the vote (mis)count.

On The Other Hand, some fail to see the obvious. 
Recently, a paper was posted on a personal web-site which
tried to debunk my pre-election/exit poll match analyses. 

Well, they still match for the same basic reason:
The projections are based on UVA-adjusted pre-election polls.
AND LATE UNDECIDEDS SPLIT FOR KERRY BY AT LEAST 60%. 
Check out the National Exit Poll. 

The average differential is 0.27% assuming a 60% UVA. 
The differential is obviously a function of UVA (see below).

Let's extend the analysis by focusing on the battleground states.
(see the related bar charts in post #2).

There were 16 battleground states (32%).

A total of 15 states (30%) matched within 1%. 
Of the 15, 8 states (53%) were battleground.

A total of 27 states (54%) matched within 2%. 
Of the 27, 12 states (44%) were battleground.

In the battleground, 8  states (50%) matched within 1%.
In the other 34 states, 7 matched (21%).

In the battleground, 12 states (75%) matched within 2%.
In the other 34 states, 15 matched (44%).

One would expect that pre-election polls in the battleground 
states would more closely match the exit polls. 
Sample sizes were larger. 
MoEs were lower.
Very plausible. 

Say hello to Diff, the Fancy Final Function:
Diff = (Exit Poll - actual) -  (Projection - actual)

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to simplify: 
Diff = Exit Poll - Projection

The weighted average Exit Poll deviation was 1.76%.
The weighted average Projection deviation was 2.03%.
The difference (Diff) is just 0.27%.

Diff is within the MoE for pre-election and exit poll samples:
1) 0.58% for the approximate total 30,000 pre-election.
2) 0.37% for the 73,607 total exit poll. 

Here's Diff for various UVA:
UVA     50%    55%     60%    65%   70%
Diff	0.28	0.01	-0.27	-0.65	-1.09

The breakeven UVA, where Diff= 0, is 55%.

Scroll down to view the Interactive Election Simulation Model signature 
graph (not part of this post) at the bottom of the screen. It shows a 0.37%
deviation between the state pre-election simulation (50.77%) and the exit poll
simulation (50.40%).  The UVA input to the model was 67%, as opposed to the 60%
UVA used in the (non-simulation) spreadsheet designed for this post.

Professional naysayers will try to debunk these results with 
long-winded strawman arguments meant to mislead and obscure.
It's what they're expert at.
As always however, the numbers will have the final say.

The column headings for the numerical table:
Kerry = Pre-election poll
Bush  = Pre-election poll

Kpoll = Pre-election 2-party poll = Kerry / (Kerry+Bush)
Kproj = 2-party projection = Kerry + UVA * (1-Kerry-Bush)

KExit = Kerry 2-party exit poll
Kact  = Kerry 2-party actual

Deviation from Kact:
Kpd   = Kerry projection
Ked   = Kerry exit poll 
Diff  = Ked - Kpd 
(see post #2 for the bar charts)

Avg   = state-weighted average
* Battleground state 

The deviations can be better visualized in the barcharts in post #2.

.	Pre-elec Poll 2pty	UVA    2pty	2pty	Deviation from Kact		
.	Kerry	Bush	Kpoll	Kproj	Kexit	Kact	Kpd	Ked	Diff

Avg   47.50	47.02	50.25	50.79	50.52	48.76	2.03	1.76	-0.27

AL	39.0	57.0	40.6	41.4	41.1	37.1	4.30	3.98	-0.32
AK	30.0	57.0	34.5	37.8	40.1	36.8	1.03	3.37	2.34
AR	45.0	50.0	47.4	48.0	46.6	45.1	2.93	1.53	-1.40
AZ	46.0	48.0	48.9	49.6	46.9	44.7	4.88	2.21	-2.67
CA	49.0	42.0	53.8	54.4	55.7	55.0	-0.64	0.69	1.33
									
CO*	47.0	48.0	49.5	50.0	49.1	47.6	2.37	1.44	-0.93*
CT	52.0	42.0	55.3	55.6	58.5	55.3	0.33	3.20	2.87
DE	45.0	38.0	54.2	55.2	58.4	53.8	1.37	4.61	3.24
DC	78.0	11.0	87.6	84.6	91.6	90.5	-5.92	1.11	7.03
FL*	47.0	47.0	50.0	50.6	49.9	47.5	3.12	2.45	-0.67*
									
GA	42.0	52.0	44.7	45.6	43.1	41.6	3.95	1.46	-2.49
HI	45.0	45.0	50.0	51.0	53.3	54.4	-3.40	-1.08	2.32
ID	30.0	59.0	33.7	36.6	33.3	30.7	5.92	2.66	-3.27
IL	54.0	42.0	56.3	56.4	57.1	55.2	1.19	1.93	0.73
IN	39.0	58.0	40.2	40.8	41.0	39.6	1.22	1.39	0.17
									
IA*	50.0	44.0	53.2	53.6	50.7	49.7	3.94	1.01	-2.93*
KS	37.0	60.0	38.1	38.8	34.6	37.1	1.67	-2.53	-4.20
KY	39.0	56.0	41.1	42.0	40.8	40.0	2.01	0.76	-1.24
LA	40.0	48.0	45.5	47.2	44.5	42.7	4.53	1.83	-2.70
ME	50.0	39.0	56.2	56.6	54.8	54.6	2.02	0.25	-1.77
									
MD	54.0	43.0	55.7	55.8	57.0	56.6	-0.77	0.47	1.24
MA	64.0	27.0	70.3	69.4	66.5	62.7	6.66	3.72	-2.94
MI*	52.0	45.0	53.6	53.8	52.6	51.7	2.07	0.83	-1.25*
MN*	52.0	44.0	54.2	54.4	54.6	51.8	2.64	2.85	0.21*
MS	42.0	51.0	45.2	46.2	43.2	40.5	5.71	2.71	-3.00
									
MO*	44.0	49.0	47.3	48.2	47.5	46.4	1.82	1.09	-0.73*
MT	36.0	57.0	38.7	40.2	39.3	39.5	0.70	-0.22	-0.92
NE	32.0	61.0	34.4	36.2	36.5	33.2	3.05	3.39	0.34
NV*	49.0	49.0	50.0	50.2	50.7	48.7	1.52	1.98	0.46*
NH*	47.0	47.0	50.0	50.6	55.5	50.7	-0.09	4.80	4.89*
									
NJ	50.0	42.0	54.3	54.8	56.1	53.4	1.43	2.76	1.33
NM*	49.0	49.0	50.0	50.2	51.3	49.6	0.60	1.74	1.14*
NY	57.0	39.0	59.4	59.4	64.0	59.3	0.11	4.68	4.57
NC*	47.0	50.0	48.5	48.8	47.3	43.8	5.04	3.55	-1.49*
ND	35.0	55.0	38.9	41.0	33.6	36.1	4.91	-2.51	-7.42
									
OH*	50.0	47.0	51.5	51.8	52.1	48.9	2.86	3.12	0.26*
OK	28.0	61.0	31.5	34.6	34.7	34.4	0.17	0.30	0.13
OR*	50.0	44.0	53.2	53.6	51.2	52.1	1.49	-0.89	-2.38*
PA*	50.0	45.0	52.6	53.0	54.4	51.3	1.74	3.15	1.41*
RI	56.0	36.0	60.9	60.8	64.2	60.6	0.22	3.66	3.44
									
SC	42.0	55.0	43.3	43.8	45.8	41.4	2.44	4.42	1.98
SD	42.0	52.0	44.7	45.6	37.4	39.1	6.51	-1.67	-8.18
TN	47.0	50.0	48.5	48.8	41.2	42.8	5.99	-1.66	-7.65
TX	37.0	59.0	38.5	39.4	36.8	38.5	0.91	-1.65	-2.56
UT	24.0	69.0	25.8	28.2	29.9	26.7	1.55	3.28	1.73
									
VT	53.0	40.0	57.0	57.2	65.7	60.3	-3.10	5.39	8.49
VA*	47.0	51.0	48.0	48.2	48.0	45.9	2.33	2.09	-0.24*
WA*	52.0	44.0	54.2	54.4	55.1	53.6	0.75	1.42	0.67*
WV	45.0	49.0	47.9	48.6	45.2	43.5	5.08	1.67	-3.41
WI*	51.0	44.0	53.7	54.0	50.2	50.2	3.81	0.02	-3.79*
WY	29.0	65.0	30.9	32.6	32.1	29.7	2.91	2.38	-0.53
									
.	Pre-elec Poll 2pty	UVA    2pty	2pty	Deviation from Kact		
.	Kerry	Bush	Kpoll	Kproj	Kexit	Kact	Kpd	Ked	Diff
Avg   47.50	47.02	50.25	50.79	50.52	48.76	2.03	1.76	-0.27




Here are the graphs.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DEVPreActExitAct_3177_image001.png

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DEVPreActExitAct_5178_image001.png

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

results". Buy stock in tin foil! I predict a run on it soon.

PS. Thanks for all that you are doing!

Mother Earth is very, very sick. I must get very, very quiet and listen. ...

The most common way people give up their power is by thinking theydon't have any.—Alice Walker


TRUTH AND JUSTICE RADIO: http://www.truthandjusticeradio.org
<a href="http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/iraq/iraqdeaths.h..."><img src="" alt="Just Foreign Policy Iraqi Death Estimator"

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.