State Exit Poll Response Analysis 


Given:
a) State Exit Poll response rates (73,607 total sample) 
b) Bush two-party state vote shares
c) Bush two-party national vote share (51.24%)

Determine: 
a) Bush vote share of state exit poll non-responders (refusers) 
   required to match the recorded state vote share.
b) Probability of the deviation between state responder and refuser vote 
   shares (from a).
c) Probability of the deviation between total state responder and refuser
   vote shares (from b) required to match the recorded Bush 51.24% vote.

Even assuming an extremely conservative 1% MoE for the total sample (it's
really 0.37%), the probability of a 3.7% (49.5-53.2) deviation between the
average Bush responder and refuser vote shares is 1.22e-13 (1 in 8
trillion).						
												

	Total	Total	Pct	Total	Pct	Bush	Bush%	Bush	Bush%	Bush	Bush%	Prob of
	Asked	Respond	Respond	Refuse	Refuse	Vote	Vote	Respond	Respond	Refuse	Refuse	Difference

Total	138158	73607	53.3%	64551	46.7%	70791	51.2%	36431	49.5%	34361	53.2%	1.22E-13
                                                                           
												
HIGH BUSH												
UT	1339	798	59.6%	541	40.4%	982	73.3%	559	70.1%	423	78.2%	0.00%
WY	1036	684	66.0%	352	34.0%	729	70.3%	465	67.9%	264	74.9%	0.02%
ID	884	559	63.2%	325	36.8%	613	69.3%	373	66.7%	240	73.9%	0.01%
NE	1180	785	66.5%	395	33.5%	789	66.8%	498	63.5%	291	73.6%	0.00%
OK	289	1539	53.2%	1354	46.8%	1897	65.6%	1005	65.3%	892	65.9%	37.29%
												
MODERATE BUSH												
ND	1030	649	63.0%	381	37.0%	658	63.9%	431	66.4%	227	59.6%	0.03%
AK	1711	910	53.2%	801	46.8%	1082	63.2%	545	59.9%	537	67.1%	0.01%
AL	1122	654	58.3%	468	41.7%	706	62.9%	385	58.9%	320	68.5%	0.00%
KS	1132	730	64.5%	402	35.5%	712	62.9%	477	65.4%	234	58.3%	0.01%
TX	2866	1671	58.3%	1195	41.7%	1763	61.5%	1055	63.2%	708	59.2%	2.16%
												
SD	3501	1495	42.7%	2006	57.3%	2133	60.9%	936	62.6%	1197	59.7%	6.85%
IN	1470	926	63.0%	544	37.0%	889	60.5%	562	60.7%	327	60.1%	38.19%
MT	1658	640	38.6%	1018	61.4%	1002	60.4%	378	59.0%	624	61.3%	12.35%
MS	1517	798	52.6%	719	47.4%	910	60.0%	473	59.2%	438	60.9%	20.59%
KY	2085	1034	49.6%	1051	50.4%	1240	59.5%	587	56.8%	653	62.2%	0.31%
												
SC	2921	1735	59.4%	1186	40.6%	1713	58.6%	941	54.2%	772	65.1%	0.00%
GA	2404	1536	63.9%	868	36.1%	1403	58.4%	874	56.9%	529	60.9%	1.93%
LA	3492	1669	47.8%	1823	52.2%	2002	57.3%	926	55.5%	1075	59.0%	3.72%
TN	2660	1774	66.7%	886	33.3%	1521	57.2%	1044	58.8%	477	53.9%	0.55%
WV	3536	1722	48.7%	1814	51.3%	1997	56.5%	944	54.8%	1053	58.1%	4.80%
												
NC	4120	2167	52.6%	1953	47.4%	2317	56.2%	1142	52.7%	1175	60.2%	0.01%
AR	2447	1402	57.3%	1045	42.7%	1352	55.3%	749	53.4%	604	57.8%	1.27%
AZ	3088	1859	60.2%	1229	39.8%	1696	54.9%	987	53.1%	710	57.8%	0.84%
VA	2537	1431	56.4%	1106	43.6%	1373	54.1%	745	52.0%	629	56.8%	0.72%
MO	4591	2158	47.0%	2433	53.0%	2462	53.6%	1133	52.5%	1328	54.6%	14.60%
												
EVEN												
CO	5133	2515	49.0%	2618	51.0%	2696	52.5%	1259	50.1%	1437	54.9%	0.71%
FL	5128	2846	55.5%	2282	44.5%	2685	52.4%	1449	50.9%	1236	54.2%	4.96%
NV	4310	2116	49.1%	2194	50.9%	2212	51.3%	1044	49.3%	1168	53.2%	2.37%
OH	4451	1963	44.1%	2488	55.9%	2273	51.1%	941	47.9%	1332	53.5%	0.22%
NM	3429	1951	56.9%	1478	43.1%	1728	50.4%	949	48.7%	779	52.7%	1.95%
												
IA	4757	2502	52.6%	2255	47.4%	2394	50.3%	1234	49.3%	1160	51.5%	13.86%
WI	4020	2223	55.3%	1797	44.7%	2002	49.8%	1107	49.8%	895	49.8%	48.99%
NH	4202	1849	44.0%	2353	56.0%	2072	49.3%	823	44.5%	1249	53.1%	0.00%
PA	4124	1930	46.8%	2194	53.2%	2010	48.7%	880	45.6%	1130	51.5%	0.13%
MI	4884	2452	50.2%	2432	49.8%	2358	48.3%	1163	47.4%	1194	49.1%	19.90%
												
MN	4808	2178	45.3%	2630	54.7%	2319	48.2%	989	45.4%	1331	50.6%	0.39%
OR	2008	1064	53.0%	944	47.0%	961	47.9%	519	48.8%	442	46.9%	16.82%
												
MODERATE KERRY												
NJ	2546	1520	59.7%	1026	40.3%	1187	46.6%	667	43.9%	520	50.7%	0.02%
WA	3946	2123	53.8%	1823	46.2%	1829	46.4%	954	44.9%	875	48.0%	5.85%
DE	1339	770	57.5%	569	42.5%	618	46.2%	320	41.6%	298	52.4%	0.00%
HI	934	499	53.4%	435	46.6%	426	45.6%	233	46.7%	193	44.4%	11.76%
ME	3210	1968	61.3%	1242	38.7%	1458	45.4%	889	45.2%	569	45.8%	37.04%
												
IL	2756	1392	50.5%	1364	49.5%	1239	45.0%	616	44.3%	623	45.7%	23.83%
CA	3697	1919	51.9%	1778	48.1%	1656	44.8%	823	42.9%	834	46.9%	2.06%
CT	1710	872	51.0%	838	49.0%	765	44.7%	362	41.5%	403	48.1%	0.04%
MD	1684	1000	59.4%	684	40.6%	731	43.4%	430	43.0%	302	44.1%	27.64%
												
HIGH KERRY												
NY	2508	1452	57.9%	1056	42.1%	1021	40.7%	523	36.0%	498	47.1%	0.00%
VT	1290	685	53.1%	605	46.9%	512	39.7%	235	34.3%	277	45.8%	0.00%
RI	1830	809	44.2%	1021	55.8%	722	39.4%	289	35.8%	432	42.3%	0.04%
MA	1573	889	56.5%	684	43.5%	586	37.3%	298	33.5%	288	42.1%	0.00%
DC	1486	795	53.5%	691	46.5%	141	9.5%	66	8.4%	74	10.8%	11.06%
												
Total	138158	73607	53.3%	64551	46.7%	70791	51.2%	36431	49.5%	34361	53.2%	1.22E-13
                                                                           
	Total	Total	Pct	Total	Pct	Bush	Bush%	Bush	Bush%	Bush	Bush%	Prob of
	Asked	Respond	Respond	Refuse	Refuse	Vote	Vote	Respond	Respond	Refuse	Refuse	Difference

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.