A- The exit polls showed that Kerry won
B- Exit polls are inherently unreliable.

A- But they are used all over the world to detect fraud.
B- They are not designed for that here.

A- Thousands are randomly sampled. The margin of error is very low.
B- It is not a true random sample.

A- Why not?
B- The cluster effect, or as the cognoscenti call it, the "Design Effect"

A- But exit polls are more accurate than standard pre-election polls. Many more voters are interviewed.
B- You forgot the design effect.

A- But exit polls must be more accurate than standard pre-election polls because people are not undecided; they know exactly who they just voted for.
B- People forget who they voted for in prior elections, so the responses cannot be taken at face value.

A- But that would apply equally to both former Gore and Bush voters.
B- No, only Gore voters forget.

A- I see, cluster effect and forgetful Gore voters. What else?
B- Some Gore voters lied and said they voted for Bush.

A- Why would they do that?
B- To identify with the previous winner - Bush.

A - But he stole it from Gore.
B - Makes no difference. People like a winner. They forgave him.

A- I read that 16 states deviated beyond the Margin of Error for Bush. The odds are 1 in 19 trillion.
B- Voodoo math - based on invalid assumptions. Bush exceeded the MoE in only 3 states. Remember, you must multiply the standard MoE formula by 1.6. Design effect. Adjusted MoE is equal to 1.6/sqrt(n).

A- But all 22 Easter time-zone states deviated to Bush, regardless of MoE. The odds of that are 1 in 4 million.
B- Sometimes, shit happens.

A- But Kerry won the three exit poll timelines up to and including the 13047 respondents at 12:22am, long after the polls closed. That's a 1% MoE according to Mitofsky.
B - The 1% is a rounded number. It was more like 1.49%.

A- That's still very low.
B- But Bush voters were reluctant to be polled . Haven't you heard of rBr? Of course Kerry won the exit polls. Bush voters avoided and Kerry voters were anxious to be polled. And these Bush voters were former Gore voters who forgot who they voted for in 2000.

A- I'm confused. Are you saying that Kerry voters were anxious to speak to exit pollsters and when they did, they forgot they voted for Gore in 2000 or lied about it?
B- No, I'm saying that there were Gore voters who forgot they voted for Gore or lied about it and voted for Bush in 2004.

A- Is that why the 2000 voter split was 43%Bush/37% Gore.
B. Precisely.

A- What about rBr? Isn't there a contradiction here?
B- None whatsoever.

A- But 43% of Bush voters means that he won 52.57 million votes in 2000. He only got 50.45 million in 2000.
B- Of the 43% who said they voted for Bush, 7% were actually Gore voters who forgot or lied when they said voted for him.

A- But if we then assume that Gore voters and Bush voters turned out equally, Bush needed to get 16% of Democratic voters. That’s over 8 million Democrats. Why would one in six Democrats vote for the guy who stole it from them in 2000?

B- Bush was a popular war president whose domestic policies appealed to many Democrats who saw him as the second coming of FDR. He would rectify the unfortunate problem of the accumulating Clinton surpluses and 22 million new jobs..

A- Weren't the final exit poll weights adjusted to match the recorded vote count?
B- Of course.

A- So was the 43%/37% Bush/Gore 2000 voter split an adjustment or was it in fact a true sample?
B- Both.

A- What if the vote count was rigged? Why match to a rigged result?
B- Because that's how it's always been done. What makes you think the vote count was rigged?

A- Assume for a moment that the vote count was rigged. If the FINAL exit poll matched a rigged count, why should we believe the final exit poll?
B- No one says that you should believe it.

A- But if the Final Exit poll is wrong, because it matched to a bogus vote count, then the preliminary poll of 13,047 respondents which showed that Kerry won by 51-48% must be closer to the truth.
B - Not necessarily.

A- Why not?
B- Design effect.

A- So why conduct an exit poll in the first place?
B- Good question. The answer is simple. The people want to be convinced that their votes counted. The Final Exit Poll confirms that.

A- How can you make that statement?
B- People believe the vote count is perfectly accurate - for two reasons. One: 122 million votes were tallied. That's a lot better than 13,047 respondents. Two: if it wasn't accurate, we would all surely hear about in the media.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

And they wonder why I want to bang my head on the wall.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

And they wonder why I want to bang my head on the wall. Obviously I am banging my head twice as I doubled posted and can't figure out how to delete one.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

Stellar work as always TIA. Can't tell you how much I appreciate it.

be even better as the weeks/months go on. Nice to see you.

Obrador for President Site

I love it. It reminds me of that wonderful piece written by a Mark Levin (or something) on the Bush v. Gore SCOTUS decision. Remember that?

Do not submit. It is extremely critical that repression be met head on
and that it be resisted with every fiber in our being.
There is absolutely no compromise that can be made with it.
As a matter of fact, compromise is what oppression feeds on.
Without compromise it would be defeated. -- Harry Belafonte

.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

This one is important.

Like a fine wine, the time for this one is coming...

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/NEP13047.do...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

"Yeah, sure, everything looks bad, and there was motive, and opportunity -- but you can't prove it, so let's not investigate it." Yeah. Just trust.

Barbara Boxer's Tears.