Why naysayers should read the links they cite before posting

OTOH,
Just in case you forgot, here is your DU post:

OnTheOtherHand (889 posts)
Fri Dec-02-05 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #58

63. ah, TIA seems to be channeling himself elsewhere on the Net
Edited on Fri Dec-02-05 07:12 PM by OnTheOtherHand

but I have no idea what the DU protocol is for responding to someone who
Isn't There.

(EDIT: "but I have idea" could've been some weird meta pun, but wasn't)
Anyway, the line seems to be: pay no attention to what anyone else --
including the pollsters themselves -- say their polls indicate. Sure, those
darn MSM analysts at Pew said "Slight Bush Margin in Final Days of
Campaign", but the illuminati know that it shoulda been Kerry +1.
pollingreport.com, shmollingreport.com -- WeGo YouGov.

All those poli sci models that called the election for Bush -- best not to
mention those, much less refute them.

The goofuses over at "Polly's Page", well, who wants to listen to
parrots, anyway? Might as well argue with a stone.
...................................................


And this is my RESPONSE...

OTOH, next time you should read your links before you
cite them in order to try to rebut my posts.

Here is my response in summary.
See below for the detail.

1:
The FINAL Pew RV Poll shows Kerry leading by a point.
This was a better projection than their LV poll which Bush led by 3.
Pew predicted a heavy turnout of NEW, YOUNG voters.
That means Kerry voters.
These NEW voters were RVs, not LVs.

Pew HEDGED their bet.
They wanted to have it BOTH ways.
Either way, they could say they picked a winner.

My Election Model DID NOT hedge.
My cherry-picked RV poll made sense for the reasons stated.
Your cherry-picked LV poll did not.

2:
The Economist "YouGov" poll was close to the exit polls.
It projected Kerry a winner by 49-45%.
The National Exit Poll (12:22am) had it 51-48% for Kerry.
Oh, I know, you don't believe the exits.

Anyway, the author's still got it wrong.
They wrote the piece just two weeks after the election.
We've learned quite a bit about the fraud since then.
The writers claim the exit pollsters were wrong in 2000 and 2004.
Wrong.

The networks had it right when they initially called it for Gore.
And they had it right when the exits initially called it for Kerry.
Yogi Berra put it this way: It was Deja Vu all over again.

3.
The Iowa Electronic markets had Kerry leading Bush on Election Day.
Look at the graph.
It wasn't until late in the evening, when the rigged votes kicked in,
that the betting odds changed in favor of Bush.

4.
a-Seven of 8 polysci projections deviated (6% average) from the exits.
b-Only one model predicted a Kerry win (by a fraction).
c-All 7 Bush win probabilities are incompatible with the projected votes.
d-The models were run 2-10 months PRIOR to the election.

My state and national projection models MATCHED the exit polls (within 0.5%).

______________________________________________________________________


Act I:
OTOH, REGARDING THE ILLUMINATI AT PEW, THANKS FOR THE LINKS:

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?Repor...



Slight Bush Margin in Final Days of Campaign
No Impact Detected from bin Laden Tape

Released: October 31, 2004
Summary of Findings

President George W. Bush holds a slight edge over Senator John Kerry in the
final days of Campaign 2004. The Pew Research Center's final pre-election
poll of 1,925 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-30, finds Bush with a
three-point edge (48% to 45% for Kerry); Ralph Nader draws 1%, and 6% are
undecided.

The poll finds indications that turnout will be significantly higher than
in the two previous presidential elections, especially among younger
people. Yet Bush gets the boost Republican candidates typically receive
when the sample is narrowed from the base of 2,408 registered voters to
those most likely to vote. (Among all registered voters, Kerry and Bush are
in a virtual tie: 46% Kerry, 45% Bush).

HERE'S THE TREND in the RV poll:
Kerry came from 7 points down to lead by a point.
Not too shabby, eh?

Oct      3 19 30
Bush    48 45 45
Kerry   41 45 46

Author          Pick 2-pty  Date    Win Probability
Abramowitz      Bush 53.7%  7/31/04 -
Campbell        Bush 53.8%  9/06/04  97%
Wlezien/Ericson Bush 52.9%  7/27/04  75%
Holbrook        Bush 54.5%  8/30/04  92%
Beck/Tien       Kerry 50.1% 8/27/04  50%
Lockabie        Bush 57.6%  5/21/04  92%
Norpoth         Bush 54.7%  1/29/04  95%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Which is, I suppose, a compliment. Gets all these guys in the co-citation database.

"BY THE WAY, OTOH.
WHERE IS YOUR MODEL?"

That's been the question from day one. Where's the beef, tainted no doubt, but where is it.

Too much blather, to little lather. Time for a shave, Burma.

What else is there to day?

BUSH STOLE THE ELECTION.

THOSE WHO ACCEPT ELECTIONS, PARTICULARLY 2000 & 2004
ARE EITHER COMPLICIT OR ASLEEP.

TIME FOR ACTION.

IMPEACH BUSH NOW!"

Obrador for President Site

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DUDebate.ht...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Exurban "soccer moms" who voted for Gore in 2000 got scared at the last moment, voted for Bush, and then felt "shame", so they lied about it...

It's a great story (...well it's kinda a crap story but it is OUR story).

The only small problem is that Bush's margin didn't come from:

Gore voters,
moms,
suburban or rural voters,
or people who were "really frightened" by the Osama tape...

Otherwise, it flies...

When you state the naysayers are just plain LAZY.

I NEVER see anything out of them that looks like WORK.

You, on the other hand (no pun intended), are the James Brown of exit polling research.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

Sorry: I'm having one of my not-too-frequent Daffy Duck moments.

But seriously, it does give me pleasure to see the electoral fraud researchers congregating here--and TIA's acerbic lucidity is always a treat.

Thanks TIA--and Autorank--for your very helpful postings.

<JB> I feel good!<JB>

.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

one by one...

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.