1) Bush's 11-poll average election day job approval was 48.5% (1.0% MoE).
2) His pre-election national 18 poll weighted share was 48.7% (0.7% MoE).
3) His pre-election 50 state poll weighted share was 48.5% (0.6% MoE).
4) His National Exit Poll (12:22am timeline) vote share (gender demographic)
was 47.8% (1.2% MoE, assuming a 40% cluster effect).
5) His State Exit Poll weighted national vote share was 48.3% (0.50% MoE,
assuming a 40% cluster effect).

Here is the Pre-election 50 state poll share calculation:
Bush's weighted poll share was 47.0%, as compared to Kerry's 47.5%.
That accounts for 94.5% of the total.

Add 1.0% for third parties, for 95.5% of the total.
That leaves 4.5% undecided.
Of the 4.5%, add 1.50% (1/3) to the Bush share.
Therefore, Bush's pre-election state poll share: 48.5%

And the Pre-election National 18 poll share calculation:
Bush's weighted share was 47.30%, as compared to Kerry's 47.55%.
That accounts for 94.85% of the total.
Add 1.0% for third parties, for 95.85% of the total.
That leaves 4.15% undecided.
Of the 4.15%, add 1.40% (1/3) to the Bush share.
Therefore, Bush's pre-election National 18 poll share: 48.7%

Consider the Law of Large Numbers.
The mean of the the FOUR independent pre-and post election poll
group means {48.7, 48.5, 47.8, 48.3} is 48.33%.
That's within 0.17% of Bush's 48.5% PRE-ELECTION JOB APPROVAL!

The probability is 97.5% that Bush got LESS THAN 48.7% of the vote.
It's virtually 100% that he got LESS THAN 49.0%.

Want more of this?
Bush's current 37% job approval is confirmed by TWO INDEPENDENT poll sets:
1) the weighted average of 50 state polls (0.6% MoE).
2) the unweighted average of 12 national polls (1.0% MoE).

These results confirm prior election studies.
An incumbent's TRUE vote is directly correlated to job approval.
They EXACTLY matched in 2004.
It's also additional confirmation that the 12:22am exit polls were correct.

So naysayers, will you now claim that
1) 50 pre-election state polls were wrong?
2) 18 pre-election national polls were wrong?
3) 11 pre-election Bush approval polls were wrong?
4) 50 post-election state exit polls were wrong?
5) the National Exit poll (12:22am, 13047 respondents) was wrong?
6) 12 post-election national approval polls are wrong?

At the same time, will you claim that the Final National Exit Poll,
which was the ONLY poll matched to the recorded vote, was correct?
Even though it is a fact that impossible Voted 2000 demographic
weightings are necessary for Bush to have won it?

Naysayers,
You were wrong a year ago.
You were wrong 6 months ago.
And you are wrong now.

If the election were held today,
Bush would lose in a landslide of epic proportions.
Even Diebold couldn't steal it for him.

Kerry won.
He really did.
He got 12 million more votes (63mm) than Al Gore (51mm).
Maybe this analysis will convince you.

But it's a moot point.
Al Gore is still President.

Salon?
Mother Jones?
What ever happened to investigative journalism?
Time to get with the program.

Prove it to yourself.

Download the Excel Interactive Election Model.
Use the link at the bottom of the screen.

In this chart, note the PERFECT correlation:
Bush exit poll and approval rating trend lines have identical slope.




This related chart shows the deviations btween the state exit polls and current approval ratings.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Their imaginatin, can't wait. This WILL have a wider audience soon...

Obrador for President Site

Their siren song of biased exit polling is getting old.
But you can be sure they'll trumpet implausible hypotheticals.

Let's see what they say about the Bush job approval
correlation to the exit polls, pre-election polls, etc.

I've challenged them to play another Bush win plausibility game
online using the Interactive Election Model.
So far, no takers.
Not even a comment.

Come to think of it, the naysays have been awful quiet lately.
Have they stopped swimming in the DU pond since Land Shark got hungry?

The great majority of DUers are convinced Kerry won.
Quite a change from a year ago.
It was inevitable.
Just keep channeling the Truth.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

TIA:

If you are going to look at the fit between the exit polls and Bush's approval rating, you really ought to plot the state count results as well. I make the correlation coefficient between the exit poll and the vote count somewhere greater than 0.95 (depending on which exit poll estimate you use). This means that if Bush's approval rating correlates highly with the exit poll it will also correlate highly with the count.

And I am getting on fine with the shark, thanks. I like sharks. I even sent him my favourite shark pic.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

The Law of Large Numbers.
The Central Limit theorem.

Final Pre-election polls.
50 state
18 national

no rBr
no faulty recall
no poll workers
no long lines
no Mitofsky
no cluster

but ...
there are many pollsters
all scientific
some corporate (CBS, Gallup, FOX, ABC, NBC, AP, etc.)
some independent (Zogby, Harris, Economist, etc.)

Who are you to say  their efforts are for naught?
After all, Mitofsky's exit polls confirm the pre-election pollsters.
And Mitofsky knows how to poll.
Doesn't he?
He's been doing it for 30 years.
All over the world.
Makes a good living, too.
He can afford to pay lots of consultants.

Why don't you contact these pollsters and tell them that, 
based on your massive evidence of non-response bias, 
they're no longer relevant?

That their services are no longer necessary.
Just fire them all.
And that includes Mitofsky.
That's what the Republicans want, don't they?

No more exit polls.
They just mislead voters into believing the elections are fixed.
We can't have that, can we?

So tell E-M and all the rest to exit the business.
What good are they?

No more damn exit polls.
Because what they're doing is just an exercise in futility.
They're polling the wrong people.
They should be polling the non-responders.
And even then, naysayers like you would disagree.

Whose idea was it to do a poll first, anyway?

Go ahead.
Set them straight.
You're the expert.
You have many years of experience in the field.
You know all about U.S. elections from overseas.
You know a lot more about polling than 
Harris or Zogby or ARG or Gallup or SUSA or... 

They should all just listen to you from now on.
And get out of the business.

Apparently, the Law of Large Numbers no longer applies.
It's the pollsters' bedrock.
Without it, they're out of business.
And that applies to all other statistical researchers.

Why don't we listen to Bush?
Let's replace Probability and Statistics with...
    Intelligent Design 101.

												
			FINAL NATIONAL PRE-ELECTION POLLS									
												
			PRESS F9 TO SIMULATE 200 ELECTION TRIALS 									
												
								Undecided vote				
		Total	Poll	Total	Weighted Average	67%	33%			
		Sample	Sample	MoE	KERRY	BUSH		KERRY	BUSH			
Date		26961	Group	0.60%	47.55	47.30		50.43	48.57			
												
1-Nov	Marist	1166	LV	2.87%	50	49		48.97	50.03			
1-Nov	Econom 2903	RV	1.82%	50	47		50.77	48.23			
1-Nov	TIPP	1284	LV	2.73%	44	47		50.66	48.34			
1-Nov	CBS	1125	RV	2.92%	47	48		52.18	46.82			
1-Nov	Harris	1509	LV	2.52%	48	49		49.17	49.83			
												
31-Oct	Zogby	1200	LV	2.83%	47	48		48.48	50.52			
31-Oct	FOX	1400	RV	2.62%	48	45		52.44	46.56			
31-Oct	DemCorp	1018	LV	3.07%	48	47		49.65	49.35			
31-Oct	Gallup	1866	RV	2.27%	48	46		51.05	47.95			
31-Oct	NBC	1014	LV	3.08%	47	48		53.34	45.66			
												
31-Oct	ABC	3511	RV	1.65%	47	48		49.27	49.73			
30-Oct	ARG	1258	LV	2.76%	49	48		50.85	48.15			
30-Oct	Pew	2408	RV	2.00%	46	45		51.56	47.44			
29-Oct	News	1005	RV	3.09%	44	48		47.27	51.73			
26-Oct	ICR	817	RV	3.43%	48	48		50.87	48.13			
												
24-Oct	LAT	1698	RV	2.38%	48	47		50.76	48.24			
21-Oct	Time	803	LV	3.46%	46	51		46.27	52.73			
20-Oct	AP	976	LV	3.14%	49	46		53.48	45.52			
												
												
18 Poll Summary:					
Kerry won 9, Bush 8, 1 tie		
Kerry won 5 of 9 Registered Voter (RV) Polls
and 4 of 9 Likely Voter (LV) Polls 

Probability of Vote Deviation from poll:					
Kerry:50.43% to 48.31%: 1 in 502,718mm	
Bush: 48.57% to 50.77%: 1 in 3,904,291mm	
												
												
												
	Polling Data Source:											
	http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm											
	http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovS.pdf											
												
												
	BUSH	KERRY										
											
			Zogby Poll								
1 LV	48	47	10/4-31/04 REUTERS/ZOGBY TRACKING POLL: 3-day rolling sample of
approx. 1,200 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.9. 								
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other			
				10/29-31/04	48	47	1	4			
											
2 LV	49	50	Marist College Poll. Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,166 registered voters
nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,026 likely voters (MoE ± 3).								
					Bush	Kerry	Unsure				
				11/1/2004	49	50	1				
											
											
3 RV	47	50	Economist  YouGov 		2903	total; MoE +/-2%					
				10/30-11/01							
					Bush	Kerry					
					45	49					
											
4 LV	47	44	TIPP tracking poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence.
Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,284 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.8.   						
					Bush	Kerry			
				10/30 - 11/1/04	47	44			
5 RV	48	47	CBS News Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,125 likely voters
nationwide. MoE ± 3. 						
					Bush/	Kerry/			
					Cheney	Edwards			
				10/29 - 11/1/04	48	47			
									
6 LV	49	48	The Harris Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2004: N=1,509 likely voters
nationwide who express a preference. MoE ± 2.5.						
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other (vol.)	
				10/29 - 11/1/04	49	48	2	1	
									
7 RV	45	48	FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 30-31, 2004. N=1,400 registered
voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,200 likely voters (MoE ± 3).						
					George	John	Other 	Wouldn't	
					W. Bush	Kerry	Not Sure	Vote (vol.)	
				10/30-31/04	45	48	7	-	
									
8 LV	47	48	Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
(D). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,018 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.						
					George	John	Ralph	Other	Unsure
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	(vol.)	
				10/29-31/04	47	48	1	1	3

9 RV	46	48	CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,866 registered
voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,573 likely voters (MoE ± 3).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other	None/
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	(vol.)	Unsure
				10/29-31/04	46	48	1	1	4

10 LV	48	47	NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling
organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004.
N=1,014 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	None/	Unsure
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Other (vol.)	
				10/29-31/04	48	47	1	2	2
									
11 RV	48	47	ABC News Tracking Poll and Washington Post Tracking Poll. Rolling
sample. Fieldwork by TNS. ABC News and The Washington Post share data
collection for this tracking poll, but calculate and report the results
independently. WASHINGTON POST: Oct. 28-31, 200						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	None/	No
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Wouldn't	Opinion
			ABC News Tracking Poll 						
				10/28-31/04	48	47	1	2	2
									
									
12 LV	48	49	American Research Group Poll. Oct. 28-30, 2004. N=1,500 registered
voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 1,258 likely voters (MoE ± 2.8).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Other/		
					Cheney	Edwards	Unsure		
					48	49	3		
13 RV	45	46	Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted
by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 27-30, 2004. N=2,408
registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 1,925 likely voters (MoE ± 2.5).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other/	
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Unsure	
				10/27-30/04	45	46	1	8	
									
14 RV	48	44	Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates
International. Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=1,005 registered voters nationwide (MoE ±
4); 882 likely voters (MoE ± 4).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other (vol.)/	
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	Undecided	
				10/27-29/04	48	44	1	7	
15 RV	48	48	ICR/International Communications Research poll. Oct. 22-26, 2004.
N=817 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3.4); 741 likely voters (MoE ±
3.6).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Other	Neither	Unsure
					Cheney	Edwards	(vol.)	(vol.)	
				10/22-26/04	48	48	-	1	4
									
16 RV	47	48	Los Angeles Times Poll. Oct. 21-24, 2004. N=1,698 registered voters
nationwide (MoE ± 3); 881 likely voters (MoE ± 3).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Unsure		
					Cheney	Edwards			
				10/21-24/04	47	48	5		
									
17 LV	51	46	Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI)
Public Affairs. Oct. 19-21, 2004. N=1,059 registered voters nationwide (MoE ±
3); 803 likely voters (MoE ± 4). 						
					Bush	Kerry	Nader	Unsure	
				10/19-21/04	51	46	2	1	
									.
18 LV	46	49	Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Oct.
18-20, 2004. N=1,330 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 2.5); 976 likely voters
(MoE ± 3).						
					Bush/	Kerry/	Nader/	Other/	
					Cheney	Edwards	Camejo	None (vol.)/	
				10/18-20/04	46	49	2	3	
									
									
									
									
									

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Febble (1000+ posts) Tue Nov-22-05 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. ...unlikely to be due to chance.
Yes. You are absolutely right. It was not due to chance. No-one, least of all Mitofsky disputes that.

The question is: what was it due to? Something was biased. It was either the count or the poll.

The evidence IMO to date strongly favours the poll, although I would agree that the data leave room for enough fraud to swing Ohio (with a following wind and, of course, voter suppression).

The MoE only tells you the margin of error due to random sampling. It tells you absolutely nothing about non-sampling error. Sources of non-sampling in surveys include non-response bias and sampling bias. They are challenging methodological problems that are remarkably hard to eliminate, and you can rarely be sure you have done so, certainly not if your response rate is only around 50%.
...............................................................

Right.
Either the count or the poll was biased.
Must have been the poll.
There is no way the count was biased.
There is no evidence to suspect foul play in the count.

Not in Ohio.
Not in Florida.
Not in Pennsylvania.
Not in New Mexico.
Not in Nevada.
Not in Missouri.
Not in North Carolina.
Not in Minnesota.
Not in New Hampshire.
Not in Texas.
Not in Washington.

No vote count bias whatsoever.
Right.
Must be the poll.
All 130 of them:
11 Pre-election Bush approvals
50 Pre-election states
18 Pre-election nationals
50 Post-election state exits
12:22am Post-election national exit (13047 respondents)

Even Mitofky's exit polls.
Except for the ONLY one which was matched to the vote:
The FINAL.
1:25pm Nov. 3 National Exit (13660).
In this case, BOTH poll and count had to be unbiased.
Even if the 43%Bush/37% Gore demographic weighting is IMPOSSIBLE.

But it can't be.
BushCo would never cheat.
They may lie about WMD, but never about the vote.
So let's just disregard the FACT that 43/37 is IMPOSSIBLE.

Thanks, Febble.
You make a lot of sense.
The pollsters were not wrong.
It's the BIAS, stupid.

You convinced us:
Exit poll respondents lied.
Gore voters forgot.
Bush voters were reluctant.
Even if the Final Exit Poll (43/37) says otherwise.

But, but....
You agree that 43/37 is impossible.
And that 43/37 implies
1) Bush 2000 voters were oversampled; in fact, they were anxious.

but, but...

2) Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% of the 2004 vote.
That would mean Bush got 52.57mm votes.
We know he only got 50.45.
But 1.75mm of them died.
So at most 48.7mm Bush 2000 voters (39.8%) could have turned out in 2004.

Sorry, Febble, but...
There goes your rBr.
There goes your Gore Voter False Recall.

You realize that equal turnout makes Kerry a landslide winner
of the Final Exit Poll, don't you?
Hell, Kerry won by 51-48 (4mm votes) when it was 41Bush/39 Gore at 12:22am.
And that means Kerry won EVERY timeline.

Bias?
Or just BS?

Febble, come out of the dark.
And into the light.

It's time to view the forest.

As Deep Throat told Woodward (he was a journalist then):
"You are missing the overall".

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Well, he calls it a response, but it isn't. Tell him to plot Bush's share of the counted vote on that plot if he wants to demonstrate the way that Bush's current approval rating shadows his exit poll share, and tell us whether it shadows his counted vote share any better or worse.

A couple of scatter plots with a regression line would probably make the point rather better, though. Vote-share against current approval rating, and exit poll share against current approval rating. Then he can calculate whether the difference between the two correlation coefficients is significant.

If it isn't, his point fails.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

IT'S FURTHER PROOF THAT STATE POLLS CONFIRM NATIONAL POLLS..
THAT APPLIES TO BOTH PRE-ELECTION AND EXIT POLLS...
AND KERRY WON THEM ALL...
THAT'S THE POINT...

The Bush 48.5% pre-election approval EXACTLY mirrors 100+ pre- and post
election POLLS (note PLURAL). 
The 3% vote discrepancy INDICATES that the recorded vote was MISCOUNTED.

And, lo and behold, his current approval has dropped...
to EXACTLY 37.08% in 11 national polls and 
TO EXACTLY 37% in 50 state polls (SUSA). 

IT'S FURTHER PROOF THAT STATE POLLS MIRROR NATIONAL POLLS...
THAT'S THE POINT...

THE POINT, DEAR FEBBLE, IS THIS: 
50 CURRENT STATE APPROVAL POLLS (WEIGHTED BY POPULATION) MATCH 
12 NATIONAL APPROVAL POLLS.

AND THE POINT IS THIS:
50 STATE PRE-ELECTION POLLS (WEIGHTED BY POPULATION) MATCH 
 18 NATIONAL PRE-ELECTION POLLS.

AND THE POINT IS THIS:
50 STATE POST-ELECTION EXIT POLLS (WEIGHTED BY POPULATION) MATCH 
 THE 12:22AM NATIONAL EXIT POLL.

AND THE TOTAL POINT IS THIS:
11 PRE-ELECTION NATIONAL APPROVAL POLLS MATCHED 
50 PRE-ELECTION STATE AND 
18 PRE-ELECTION NATIONAL AND 
50 POST-ELECTION STATE EXIT AND 
1 POST-ELECTION NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am, that is).

THEY MATCH, IF YOU AGREE THAT 48.50% MATCHES 48.33%
THAT'S THE POINT.
It's a virtual mathematical identity:
BUSH_APPROVAL = TRUE_VOTE = PRE_STATE = PRE_NAT = POST_STATE = POST_NAT 
KERRY 50.7, BUSH 48.3

THAT, DEAR FEBBLE, IS THE POINT 
(OR SHOULD I SAY THOSE ARE THE POINTS)

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

TIA wrote:

Right.
Either the count or the poll was wrong.
Must have been the poll.
Cuz the count was right.

There is no evidence to the contrary.

Not in Ohio.
Not in Florida.
Not in Pennsylvania.
Not in New Mexico.
Not in Nevada.
Not in Missouri.
Not in North Carolina.
Not in Minnesota.
Not in New Hampshire.
Not in Texas.
Not in Washington.

Right.
Must be the poll.
All 130 of them:
11 Pre-election Bush approvals
50 Pre-election states
18 Pre-election nationals
50 Post-election state exits
12:22am Post-election national exit

Except for this one lonely poll (which was matched to the vote):
1:25pm Nov. 3 Post-election national exit poll.
In this case, BOTH poll and count were right.

Or were they both wrong?
No. Impossible.
They wouyld never cheat.

Thanks, Febble.
You make a lot of sense.
All the pollsters were wrong.
Even Mitofsky, except for the Final National Exit

My response is:

No, I don't believe the poll was wrong because the count must be right. You know this. We can't, assume that the count was right any more than we can assume that the poll was wrong. This is a scandal, and must be put right. So why do I think the poll was in error?


Forget the "Final National Exit" - let's look at where the discrepancy actually was. The E-M report tells us that it was at precinct level - it wasn't precinct selection, and it wasn't pre-election info. The discrepancy was what Freeman calls "precinct level discrepancy" (PLD). It could have been voter sampling; it could have been fraud. But what we know for sure is that the chances of the mean precinct level discrepancy being that different from zero is trillions to one. What we don't know is why.

But conveniently for statisticians there is lots of variance. Not all precinct polls showed a "red shift" - some showed a marked "blue shift". Moreover, the red shift was far greater in some precincts than in others.

So: you are hypothesising that the "redshift" was due to fraud. So, presumably, precincts with large amounts of red shift must have had large amounts of fraud, and precincts with small amounts of red shift must have had small amounts of fraud. And perhaps the precincts with blue shift had pro-Kerry fraud. OK. And we also know that in 2000, though there may have been fraud, it was unlikely to have been on the the scale hypothesised for 2004 because the exit polls were fairly accurate. We can therefore measure Bush's performance relative to his performance in 2000 - it's what we Brits call "swing" - the amount that the vote has swung in your favour since the last election.

If fraud is the cause of swing to Bush, and also of redshift, swing should be greater in precincts with large amounts of redshift and less, or negative in precincts with small redshift or blue shift.

So redshift, and "swing" (Bush's performance relative to 2000) ought to be positively correlated.

And they are not.

There may well have been fraud in 2004 - I am pretty convinced there was. There was certainly voter suppression, vote suppression. But it cannot be the sole cause (or even, on my calcs, for any more than a minor portion) for the exit poll discrepancy because if it was the swing-shift correlation would be positive. And it isn't (it's actually insignificantly negative).

That is why I say the evidence is for error in the poll not the count - AS THE CAUSE OF THE EXIT POLL DISCREPANCY. There may well have been fraud of a type to leave the exit polls unaffected (voter suppression and some kinds of vote spoilage will not show up in the exit polls).

IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHETHER I BELIEVE THE COUNT. I am an evidence-based scientist. There is a fair bit of evidence for the error being in the poll, but this, frankly, is "the clincher".

Now, let's stop banging on about the exit polls and start reforming American democracy. Which is broken. As we both agree, if on little else.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

"So redshift, and "swing" (Bush's performance relative to 2000) ought to be positively correlated."

Once again, she substitutes a new thesis instead of debating the old one. Yeah? Prove it.

Conveniently, we can't.... We got no data.

Or, you could prove that "redshift, and 'swing'" ought to... shoulda, coulda... be "positively correlated" by proving that correlation independently of this specific fraud "debate". I suggested one way to test Febble's thesis. There are others. Of course, WE can't do it - we still have no data...

Otherwise, all this just smells like another Mitofsky red-herring. OH no... Mitofsky has never introduced one of those into this debate, has he?

"Finally, ESI examined whether the proportions of the vote that Bush
received in each precinct, in 2000 and 2004, were related to the difference
between the reported vote and exit poll results for those same precincts. If
systematic fraud or error in vote counting occurred in 2004 but not in 2000,
Bush would have done significantly better in those precincts in 2004 {than in
2000} and we would see larger differences between the reported vote and the
exit poll in those precincts."

The premise is that there was ZERO fraud in 2000. 
Umm, really?

OK, let's do a little model to test it out.

Assume this hypothetical example:
1) 10 precincts comprised the total electorate.
2) Fraud accounted for 70% of the exit poll discrepancies in 2000 and 2004.
3) Bush's vote declined in 5 of the 10 precincts from 2000 to 2004.
					

	Bush 2000					Bush 2004													
Prct	Rec	Exit	Fraud	Fraud	TRUE		Chg	Rec	Exit	Fraud	Fraud	TRUE
	Vote	%Dev	%Dev	Dev	Vote		2000	Vote	%Dev	%Dev	Dev	Vote
1	55%	2%	70%	1.40%	53.60%		-1%	54%	4%	70%	2.80%	51.20%
2	40%	2%	70%	1.40%	38.60%		-1%	39%	4%	70%	2.80%	36.20%
3	49%	1%	70%	0.70%	48.30%		3%	52%	3%	70%	2.10%	49.90%
4	44%	1%	70%	0.70%	43.30%		4%	48%	3%	70%	2.10%	45.90%
5	53%	1%	70%	0.70%	52.30%		-4%	49%	3%	70%	2.10%	46.90%
6	58%	1%	70%	0.70%	57.30%		5%	63%	3%	70%	2.10%	60.90%
7	40%	2%	70%	1.40%	38.60%		6%	46%	4%	70%	2.80%	43.20%
8	57%	1%	70%	0.70%	56.30%		-1%	56%	3%	70%	2.10%	53.90%
9	45%	1%	70%	0.70%	44.30%		3%	48%	3%	70%	2.10%	45.90%
10	48%	1%	70%	0.70%	47.30%		-1%	47%	3%	70%	2.10%	44.90%

	48.90%	1.30%	70.00%	0.91%	47.99%		1.30%	50.20%	3.30%	70.00%	2.31%	47.89%

												
Summarizing:

In 2000:			        In 2004:			
Bush LOST the election with 48.90%	Bush WON the election with 50.20%				
Bush LOST the TRUE Vote with 47.99%	Bush LOST the TRUE Vote with 47.89%
				
Bush won 4 precincts, lost 6		Bush won 4 precincts, lost 6				
					

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

To quote Febble (my responses in UPPER case):
If you read both pieces you will see that there are a number of ways in which
the plot could be compatible with fraud, even with widespread fraud; 
THANK YOU

it is, however, very difficult to reconcile the plot with a fraud mechanism
that could have contributed substantially to the exit poll discrepancy. 
DEFINE SUBSTANTIALLY.
BUT WAS IT ENOUGH TO STEAL THE ELECTION?

It would therefore seem more likely than not that the exit poll discrepancy was
caused largely by polling bias rather than fraud.
WHAT ABOUT THE PRE-ELECTION POLLING DISCREPANCIES?

However BECAUSE the analysis is perfectly compatible with the kinds of
electoral injustice that we KNOW happened in 2004, just as they did in 2000,
then the analysis does nothing to rule out fraud. 
THANK YOU

The analysis simply says that the magnitude is not indexed by the exit poll
discrepancy. It could (probably) be less. It could (conceivably, I suppose) be
greater.
COULD BE MORE, COULD BE LESS.
FOR HEAVEN'S SAKE, FEBBLE, TELL US SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW.

And the take-home message is: stop regarding the exit polls as prima facie
evidence of a stolen election. There is plenty of other work to be done, and
frankly, the exit polls are getting in the way.
NO, FEBBLE, THE EXIT POLLS WERE THE FIRST MECHANISM TO RAISE SERIOUS FLAGS.
SINCE THEN, WITH THE ANALYSIS OF THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE 
(THE ONLY ONE MATCHED TO THE PURLOINED VOTE) 
AND WITH PROOF OF THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF THE FINAL'S
BUSH/GORE 2000 WEIGHTS, THE EXIT POLLS HAVE BEEN CERTIFIED AS 
THE GIFTS THAT ALWAYS KEEP ON GIVING.

OF COURSE, YOU WOULD LIKE ALL EXIT POLL DISCUSSION TO CEASE. 
YOU WANT US TO "MOVE ON".
SO WOULD MITOFSKY, I BET.
DO YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE PRE-ELECTION POLLS?
THAT'S FINE WITH ME.

And while I'm attuned to the other world, let me channel another of the dead:
YUP, THAT'S ME.
RUMOURS OF MY DEATH HAVE BEEN GREATLY EXAGGERATED.
THOUGH BANNED FROM DU, I'M STILL KICKING, THANK YOU.
KICKING ENOUGH TO MAKE ALL YOU NAYSAYS COME OUT IN FORCE.

FEBBLE QUOTES ME FROM HERE:
"Finally, ESI examined whether the proportions of the vote that Bush
received in each precinct, in 2000 and 2004, were related to the difference
between the reported vote and exit poll results for those same precincts. If
systematic fraud or error in vote counting occurred in 2004 but not in 2000,
Bush would have done significantly better in those precincts in 2004 {than
in 2000} and we would see larger differences between the reported vote and
the exit poll in those precincts."

The premise is that there was ZERO fraud in 2000. 
Umm, really?

OK, let's do a little model to test it out.

Assume this hypothetical example:
1) 10 precincts comprised the total electorate.
2) Fraud accounted for 70% of the exit poll discrepancies in 2000 and 2004.
3) Bush's vote declined in 5 of the 10 precincts from 2000 to 2004.

Bush 2000 Bush 2004 
Prct Rec Exit Fraud Fraud TRUE Chg Rec Exit Fraud Fraud TRUE
Vote %Dev %Dev Dev Vote 2000 Vote %Dev %Dev Dev Vote
1 55% 2% 70% 1.40% 53.60% -1% 54% 4% 70% 2.80% 51.20%
2 40% 2% 70% 1.40% 38.60% -1% 39% 4% 70% 2.80% 36.20%
3 49% 1% 70% 0.70% 48.30% 3% 52% 3% 70% 2.10% 49.90%
4 44% 1% 70% 0.70% 43.30% 4% 48% 3% 70% 2.10% 45.90%
5 53% 1% 70% 0.70% 52.30% -4% 49% 3% 70% 2.10% 46.90%
6 58% 1% 70% 0.70% 57.30% 5% 63% 3% 70% 2.10% 60.90%
7 40% 2% 70% 1.40% 38.60% 6% 46% 4% 70% 2.80% 43.20%
8 57% 1% 70% 0.70% 56.30% -1% 56% 3% 70% 2.10% 53.90%
9 45% 1% 70% 0.70% 44.30% 3% 48% 3% 70% 2.10% 45.90%
10 48% 1% 70% 0.70% 47.30% -1% 47% 3% 70% 2.10% 44.90%

48.90% 1.30% 70.00% 0.91% 47.99% 1.30% 50.20% 3.30% 70.00% 2.31% 47.89%

Summarizing:
In 2000: In 2004: 
Bush LOST the election with 48.90% Bush WON the election with 50.20% 
Bush LOST the TRUE Vote with 47.99% Bush LOST the TRUE Vote with 47.89%

Bush won 4 precincts, lost 6 Bush won 4 precincts, lost 6 
TO HERE:

I believe the citation is from this document:

http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/exit-polls/ES... 

In which the hypothesis I referred to is incorrectly stated.

See the second of the links above for clarification.

However, the channelled spirit correctly spots one of the fraud mechanisms that
could account for the exit poll discrepancy and not produce a swing-shift
correlation:
THANK YOU

If fraud in 2004 was precisely calibrated to the fraud that occurred in 2000
(and I mean precisely), then yes, that might do it. 
NO THANKS
2004 FRAUD MUST BE BE PRECISELY CALIBRATED TO 2000 FRAUD?
SURELY YOU JEST.
THERE ARE INFINITE SCENARIO COMBINATIONS WHICH WILL YIELD
RESULTS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL WHICH YOU JUST REFERED TO.

If every extra 1 percent in Bush's vote share due to fraud in 2000 was mirrored
by X times 1% fraud in 2004, yup, maybe you could pull it off. 
UMM, THANK YOU...
I GUESS.

An alternative would be uniform fraud in all precincts. 
POSSIBLE. 
NOT LIKELY.
WHY LEAVE A TRAIL?
BETTER TO TARGET INDIVIDUALLY.

Another alternative is fraud confined to precincts in which Bush was
anticipated to do badly relative to 2000 (although you would have to be careful
to cover a substantial majority of precincts and be sure to avoid any where he
was doing well).
AGAIN, POSSIBLE,
BUT NOT LIKELY

FEBBLE, THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO SKIN A CAT.
TOUCH SCREENS.
OPTI-SCANS.
PUNCH CARDS.
CENTRAL TABULATORS.
AND THE VOTERS WOULD NEVER KNOW IT.

BUT YOU NEED COOPERATION AT THE STATE AND/OR LOCAL LEVEL.
LIKE IN FLORIDA AND OHIO.

If anyone can suggest an practical algorithm that could achieve this, bearing
in mind that it in all NEP precincts where the vote counts for are collected at
the precinct, that the fraud must be perpetrated at precinct level, not at
tabulator level (about 60% of precincts) while the remainder has to be done at
tabulator level, then I will concede, yes, perhaps the exit poll discrepancy
was due to fraud.

NOW WE MUST COME UP WITH THE THEFT ALGORITHM FOR YOU?
YOU ASSUME THERE WAS JUST ONE.
THE SMOKING ALOGORITHM...
SURELY, FEBBLE, YOU JEST.
FRAUD CAME IN MANY SHAPES AND SIZES.
IT HAD TO BE FLUID.
1. OHIO AND FLORIDA -ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY 
2. PICK UP ENOUGH VOTES ELSEWHERE TO WIN BY AT LEAST 3MM VOTES 
  IN ORDER TO AVOID ANOTHER 2000 AND GET THAT "MANDATE"
3. SET THE TONE EARLY: THE EAST WAS THE BEAST. 
  MAKE SURE THE EARLY TOTALS SHOW BUSH AHEAD.
4. AND, MOST IMPORTANT, MAKE SURE THE INITIAL EXIT POLL TIMELINES
  ARE NOT RELEASED. ONLY SHOW THE FINAL AFTER MATCHING TO THE VOTE...

But remember - there is very little room for any deviation from the fraud
perpetrated in 2000. It has to be directly proportional. 
MUST BE DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL?
SURELY, FEBBLE, YOU JEST.
WHY DO YOU EXPECT THE PERPS WOULD USE A SIMPLE FRAUD FORMULA?

Any variance and it will show up in a swing-shift correlation. I challenge my
channelled spirit to produce a model of 1250 precincts (not 10) with a
realistic distribution of WPEs, vote shares, counting methods and swing values
in which the WPE (or any other measure of bias) is not correlated with a
measure of swing, and yet fraud is responsible for both (I'm happy with 70%
shared variance, or even less). Oh, and you can't end up with a large mean WPE
in 2000 because there wasn't one.

LET'S BACK UP HERE.
I CHALLENGED YOU AND OTOH TO COME UP WITH A SINGLE 
PLAUSIBLE BUSH WIN SCENARIO.

THE ORIGINAL SCENARIO YOU CAME UP WITH IN THE DU "GAME" THREAD
IN WHICH I WAS BANNED (HOW DID THAT HAPPEN?) WAS ESSENTIALLY THIS:
1- 15% OF GORE VOTERS (3 MILLION) VOTED FOR BUSH
2- KERRY WINS JUST 52% OF NEW VOTERS.

NOT VERY PLAUSIBLE.

THE FINAL EXIT POLL HAD KERRY WINNING 54% OF NEW VOTERS (TOO LOW).
AND 10% OF GORE VOTERS VOTING FOR BUSH (TOO HIGH).
IN THE 1:25PM FINAL, THE WEIGHTS/PERCENTAGES WERE CHANGED
 TO MATCH THE VOTE.

SO, OF COURSE, BUSH WON THE FINAL EXIT POLL. HE HAD TO.
BECAUSE THEY FORCED THE NUMBERS TO MAKE IT SO... 

43/37, 43/37, 43/37, 43/37... 
IMPOSSIBLE, IMPOSSIBLE, IMPOSSIBLE, IMPOSSIBLE

AND THAT WAS THE ONLY TIMELINE THAT HE WON.

AT THE 12:22AM TIMELINE, KERRY WON 91% OF GORE VOTERS.
AND 57% OF NEW VOTERS.

AND THE FINAL'S 200O VOTER TURNOUT
 43% OF 2004 VOTERS FOR BUSH AND 37% FOR GORE?
 - CLEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. 
OOPS, I REPEAT MY SELF.

SO I ASKED YOU AND OTOH TO COME UP WITH ANOTHER SCENARIO.
YOU ARE WELCOME TO DOWNLOAD MY EXCEL INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL.
IT'S FREE.

BUT YOU AND OTOH NEVER TOOK ME UP ON THE OFFER.
AND NOW YOU CHALLENGE ME TO DEVELOP A RIDICULOUS, IMPOSSIBLE ALGORITHM?
I THINK I'LL STICK WITH 43/37.
SINCE YOU ARE ALREADY STUCK WITH IT.

FROM HERE TO ETERNITY.

SINATRA AND LANCASTER. 
TWO OF MY ALL-TIME FAVORITES, BTW.
NO BS FROM EITHER OF THEM.
HONEST. HARD WORKING. TALENTED. PROFESSIONAL.


THOSE WERE THE DAYS.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Dear TIA:

So here's a kind of a summary of where I think we stand:

I think the 2004 American presidential election saw massive voter suppression, and all kinds of shenanigans that are a disgrace to a democracy, and amounted to systematic disenfranchisement of largely Democratic voters. I think that had the election been honest, Kerry would be president. And actually, I agree with you that had 2000 been honest, Gore would probably be president.

And I think we also agree that the software that counts the votes is ridiculously insecure, and needs to be replaced with a transparent system of auditable vote-counting, preferably paper ballots hand-counted under public scrutiny (as done in the UK).

Finally, I think we also agree that straight up fraud probably occurred, although we may differ on the mathematical degree of probability.

Where we disagree is in the extent to which the exit polls measure the degree of fraud. You think the fraud was commensurate with the discrepancy; I disagree.

And we probably always will disagree. As I think I said to you a while back, I think in one sense the exit polls (and your work on them) did a sterling service in alerting many (including me) to the possibility that the election was stolen. In many real senses I believe it was, although not, probably, in the sense that you mean it.

So, good-bye, TIA. It's been good talking to you.

And thanks to David and auto for letting it happen. I will continue to do what I can to argue for the restoration of your broken democracy.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

You didn't think I'd let you off so quickly with THAT one, did you?

TIA:
SO I ASKED THE NAYSAYERS TO COME UP WITH ANOTHER SCENARIO.
YOU ARE WELCOME TO DOWNLOAD MY EXCEL INTERACTIVE ELECTION MODEL.
IT'S FREE.
BUT NO ONE TOOK ME UP ON THE OFFER.

Febble:
No, because, I don't accept the assumptions underlying the model.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I ask you: what assumptions?
Be specific, please.

Final pre-election polls?
I use final state and national pre-election poll data as a base.
Do you have a problem with that?

I make only ONE assumption: the undecided vote.
Check out the National Exit Poll's "When Voted" demographic.
It has Kerry winning 60% of the late undecided.
Go ahead. Run the model.
Try whatever assumptions you wish.

Exit polls? 
I use 12:22am state and national exit poll data.
Do you have a problem with that?
Would you prefer the 1:25pm Final National, 
which was matched to the vote count?
OK, but see the Bush 2000 voter caveat below.

There is just one input assumption: the "cluster" effect.
Do you take issue with that? 
Go ahead. Run the model.
Play what-if with any of the demographic categories.

The caveat: 
For the Bush/Gore weights in the "How Voted in 2000" demographic, 
Bush must be no greater than 39.8% (the mathematical maximum).
That's not my restriction; it's the Almighty's.
Bush 2000 voters who died could not vote in 2004.

Other than that, make whatever assumptions you choose.
Is that fair enough?

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.