http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2005/50StatePOTUS1...

Bush's overall 11-poll average rating on election day was 48.5%.
His current rating is 37%.
That's an 11.50% drop.

Now look at the current state approval rating chart.
Focus on the 36-40% rating group.
These were the Battleground states.

If we add 12% to the state approval rating, we are probably very close to
the true Bush 2004 vote (or the state exit poll). Therefore...

It's clear from the pre-election polls, exit polls and Bush ratings that Kerry won OH, FL and NM.
It's very likely that he also won CO, NV and IA.
And if he didn't win, he came very close in VA, AR, AZ and MO.

BOTTOM LINE:
Kerry needed Ohio OR Florida to win the presidency.
He won BOTH.
Apparently, he doesn't think he won either one.

Anyway, it's a moot point.
Kerry is not the president.
Al Gore is.

The national (weighted) results are based on the state percentages weighted by population size: Bush's 2-party state exit poll share was 48.5%; his current job approval is 37%. Was it just coincidental that his two-party vote share, according to the National Exit Poll 12:22am timeline, was EXACTLY the same as his 11 poll 48.5% average job approval? If not, can we then can assume that if the election were held today, he would lose by 63-37%?

These results indicate that an incumbent's TRUE vote share as measured by the pristine National Exit Poll, is a reflection of his job approval at the time of the election; in fact, they EXACTLY matched in 2004.

In this chart, note the PERFECT correlation between the exit poll and job approval rating trend lines; they are EXACTLY parallel



This bar chart shows the percentage decline in Bush approval from the exit poll.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

SCOTUS needs to be impeached en bank, the seven judges of the 7-2 ruling. They all must go. That is our top priority after the restoration of rightful rulers to power.

Once they're impeached and removed, they are subject to civil and criminal proceedings as is any other citizen.

It's time to face the facts.

Obrador for President Site

It's The Law of Large Numbers (LLN). It's fundamental.

For a poll of sample size N, the MoE =.98/sqrt(N) at the 95% confidence level.

For the latest SUSA Bush approval ratings, 600 were interviewed in each
state(30,000 total). The MoE for N= 30,000 is 0.57%. 
Therefore, the probability is 95% that the true rating is between 36.43% and
37.57% (two-tail test) and 97.5% that it's LESS THAN 37.57% (one-tail).

In each of 12 national polls, 1000 were interviewed (12000 total).
The 12-poll average rating is 37.08%
The MoE for N = 12,000 is 0.89%
There is a 95% probability that the true rating (population mean) lies between
36.19% and 37.97%. Stated another way, there's a 97.5% probability that it's
LESS THAN 37.97%.

The final Election Model projection (using final state and national polls)  had
Kerry winning by 51-48%. The Bush average percentage was 46.89% in both state
and national. Quite a coincidence. The undecided voter share was allocated to
Kerry (75%) and Bush (25%) in order to derive the final projected vote share of
51-48%. 

A margin of error was calculated for the combined 50 state polls and another
MoE was calculated for the 11 combined national polls. These were pre-election
polls, so there was no Exit Poll cluster effect. 

Obviously, there is no cluster effect in the Bush approval polls. No rBr, no
false Gore voter recall, no late voter. None of these ridiculous naysayer
hypotheticals apply.

The Law of Large Numbers. It's fundamental. What is it about this classic
statistical phenomenon that the naysayers don't understand?		

__________________________________________________________________
NATIONAL POLL JOB APPROVAL
	NWK	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby	ARG	 Avg 
Mar-05	45	52	52	45	na	49	50	na	50	48	46	na	 48.56 
Apr-05	na	49	48	44	44	43	47	53	48	44	46	na	 46.60 
May-05	na	47	50	43	na	44	48	na	47	47	46	na	 46.50 
Jun-05	na	48	47	42	45	46	48	46	na	43	46	na	 45.67 
Jul-05	na	47	49	47	na	42	48	na	46	42	43	na	 45.50 
Aug-05	42	45	45	43	40	45	45	na	na	42	45	42	 43.40 
Sep-05	38	41	40	40	40	41	42	42	40	39	40	36	 39.92 
Oct-05	40	41	42	40	40	37	39	42	39	39	43	38	 40.00 
Nov-05	36	36	37	36	34	35	39	42	38	37	37	38	 37.08 

													
													

__________________________________________________________________

STATE JOB APPROVAL / PRESIDENT GEORGE W BUSH  (Released 11/17/05)													
SORTED ALPHBETICALLY BY STATE MEDIA SPONSOR					
11/17/2005		                "Net 11/05 Approval"							

#	State	    '04 ECV Approve Disapprove									
1	Alabama	        Bush	46%	49%	-3%	AL		WKRG-TV					
2	Alaska	        Bush	47%	50%	-3%	AK							
3	Arizona	        Bush	40%	58%	-18%	AZ		KPNX-TV					
4	Arkansas	Bush	40%	57%	-17%	AR		KTHV-TV					
5	California	Kerry	33%	65%	-32%	CA		KABC-TV	KPIX-TV	KXTV-TV	KGTV-TV		

6	Colorado	Bush	40%	58%	-18%	CO		KUSA-TV					
7	Connecticut	Kerry	32%	65%	-33%	CT		WABC-TV					
8	Delaware	Kerry	29%	69%	-40%	DE		WCAU-TV					
9	Florida	        Bush	37%	61%	-24%	FL
WFOR-TV	WPTV-TV	WFLA-TV	WKMG-TV	WTLV-TV	WKRG-TV

10	Georgia	        Bush	45%	51%	-6%	GA		WXIA-TV	WTLV-TV				

11	Hawaii	       Kerry	37%	58%	-21%	HI		KHON-TV					
12	Idaho	        Bush	59%	39%	20%	ID							
13	Illinois	Kerry	31%	67%	-36%	IL		KSDK-TV					
14	Indiana	        Bush	45%	53%	-8%	IN		WXIN-TV	WHAS-TV				
15	Iowa	        Bush	35%	63%	-28%	IA		KAAL-TV					

16	Kansas	        Bush	43%	53%	-10%	KS		KWCH-TV					
17	Kentucky	Bush	41%	57%	-16%	KY		WHAS-TV					
18	Louisiana	Bush	45%	51%	-6%	LA							
19	Maine	       Kerry	35%	62%	-27%	ME		WCSH-TV	WLBZ-TV				
20	Maryland	Kerry	32%	65%	-33%	MD		WMAR-TV	WUSA-TV				

21	Massachusetts   Kerry	31%	67%	-36%	MA		WBZ-TV					
22	Michigan	Kerry	32%	64%	-32%	MI		WDIV-TV	WZZM-TV				
23	Minnesota	Kerry	38%	61%	-23%	MN		KSTP-TV	WDIO-TV	KSAX-TV	KAAL-TV		
24	Mississippi	Bush	50%	48%	2%	MS							
25	Missouri	Bush	38%	60%	-22%	MO		KSDK-TV					

26	Montana	        Bush	43%	54%	-11%	MT							
27	Nebraska	Bush	48%	48%	0%	NE							
28	Nevada	        Bush	39%	59%	-20%	NV		KVBC-TV					
29	New Hampshire	Kerry	36%	62%	-26%	NH		WBZ-TV					
30	New Jersey	Kerry	30%	67%	-37%	NJ		WABC-TV	WCAU-TV				

31	New Mexico	Bush	40%	58%	-18%	NM		KOB-TV					
32	New York	Kerry	27%	70%	-43%	NY		WABC-TV	WNYT-TV	WGRZ-TV	WHEC-TV		
33	North Carolina	Bush	42%	57%	-15%	NC		WTVD-TV	WFMY-TV	WBTV-TV			
34	North Dakota	Bush	43%	53%	-10%	ND							
35	Ohio	        Bush	36%	63%	-27%	OH		WKYC-TV	WYTV-TV				

36	Oklahoma	Bush	49%	49%	0%	OK		KFOR-TV	KJRH-TV				
37	Oregon	       Kerry	40%	59%	-19%	OR		KATU-TV					
38	Pennsylvania	Kerry	34%	62%	-28%	PA		WCAU-TV	WNEP-TV				
39	Rhode Island	Kerry	26%	73%	-47%	RI		WLNE-TV					
40	South Carolina	Bush	41%	57%	-16%	SC		WCSC-TV	WLTX-TV	WBTV-TV			

41	South Dakota	Bush	45%	53%	-8%	SD							
42	Tennessee	Bush	42%	55%	-13%	TN		WBIR-TV					
43	Texas	        Bush   44%	52%	-8%	TX		KPRC-TV	WOAI-TV	KEYE-TV			
44	Utah	        Bush	 59%	38%	21%	UT		KSL-TV					
45	Vermont	        Kerry	29%	69%	-40%	VT							

46	Virginia	Bush	39%	59%	-20%	VA		WUSA-TV	WSLS-TV				
47	Washington	Kerry	41%	58%	-17%	WA		KING-TV	KATU-TV				
48	West Virginia	Bush	42%	55%	-13%	WV		WUSA-TV					
49	Wisconsin	Kerry	36%	62%	-26%	WI		WDIO-TV					
50	Wyoming	        Bush	53%	45%	8%	WY							
													
Weighted Average		37%	60%	-23%								
('Weighted Average' means each state is weighted proportionally to its share of
USA population. For example, California, the most populated state, is given 71
times the weight of WY the least populated state, in a weighted
avg.)													
													
Unweighted Average	         40%	58%	-18%								
('Unweighted Average' means each state is given equal weight; population
density is not taken into account).													
													
© 2005 SurveyUSA. All Rights Reserved.													
600 adults age 18+ in each of the 50 states were interviewed by SurveyUSA
11/11/05 to 11/13/05. You must credit SurveyUSA and the media sponsor if you
broadcast, print, or cite these results in whole or part. Click on each state
to open a link which contains the margin of sampling error for each state, a
complete statement of methodology, fully crosstabbed data and
trendlines.													


													

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.