http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboa...

What is the probability that Kerry would win 51.30%-47.77% in Florida counties(3.864 mm votes) which used touch screen computers, but lose by 42.27%-57.03% in counties where Optical scanners (3.429mm votes) were used?



In other words, what is the probability that Kerry's TouchScreen vote (51.30%) would exceed his total vote (47.06%) by 4.24% due to chance alone?

Keep in mind that registration statistics are consistent across Touchscreen and Optiscan counties, so we are NOT comparing apples and oranges.

Total FL counties registration by voting machine:
TouchScreen:40.89% Dem vs. 36.77% Repub.
OptiScan: 41.92% Dem vs. 38.98% Repub.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Reg = registered voters (in millions)
DemR = registered Democrats (%)
RepR = registered Republicans (%)
DiffR = Demr - RepR

Votes = Total votes (millions)
DemV = Kerry votes
RepV = Bush votes

Reg DemR RepR DiffR Votes DemV RepV
Touchscreen 
5.576 40.89% 36.77% 4.12% 3.864 51.30% 47.77%

Optiscan
4.725 41.92% 38.98% 2.94% 3.420 42.27% 57.03%

Total 
10.301 41.37% 37.79% 3.58% 7.284 47.06% 52.12%

Assume a 1.0% Margin of error (conservative):

Prob = NORMDIST(0.513,0.4706,0.01/1.96,FALSE)
Prob = 7.877E-14, less than 1 in 12.7 Trillion.





The Touchscreen counties agreed with the 13047 Exit Poll respondents at 12:22am
- within 0.43% for Bush (17,000 votes) and 0.31% for Kerry (12,000).

The Optiscans deviated from the Bush exit poll result by 8.99% (307,000 votes).
They deviated by 8.12% (278,000) for Kerry.


Type	Reg	DemR	RepR	DiffR	Votes	DemV%	RepV%	DemV	RepV
T/S	5.576	40.89%	36.77%	4.12%	3.864	51.30%	47.77%	1.982	1.846
OptS	4.725	41.92%	38.98%	2.94%	3.420	42.27%	57.03%	1.446	1.950
Total	10.301	41.37%	37.79%	3.58%	7.284	47.06%	52.12%	3.428	3.796



13047	Touchscreen	3.864	votes			OPTISCAN	3.420	votes	
PARTY ID	
       Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem	40.89%	9%	90%	1%	Dem	41.92%	9%	90%	1%
Rep	36.77%	92%	7%	1%	Rep	38.98%	92%	7%	1%
Ind	22.33%	44%	52%	4%	Ind	19.10%	44%	52%	4%
									
Pct	100%	47.34%	50.99%	1.67%	Pct	100%	48.04%	50.39%	1.57%

Vote	3.864	1.829	1.970	0.065	Vote	3.420	1.643	1.723	0.054
Act%	100%	47.77%	51.30%	0.925%	Act%	100%	57.03%	42.27%	0.70%

Act	3.864	1.846	1.982	0.036	Act	3.420	1.950	1.446	2.40%

Diff	       0.017	0.012	-0.029		Diff  0.307	-0.278	-0.030
	       0.43%	0.31%	-0.74%		       8.99%	-8.12%	-0.87%


 
The above analysis says that Kerry won FL by 221,000 votes, 141,000 on
Touchscreens and 80,000 on Optiscans.

Since Kerry won the touchscreen counties by 51-47%, and Bush the optiscans by 
57-42%, it seems logical to surmise that the optiscan counties are the most
likely locations of vote count fraud. This is not to say that the T/S counties
are clean, but the results are much more believable.  

If we believe that the pristine 12:22am National Exit Poll timeline is correct
and close to the true vote, then why are the optiscans counties so far off,
since the Party ID weights are very similar: 

OptiScan:    Dem 42/Rep 39%
Touchscreen: Dem 41/Rep 37%

The actuals: Bush won by 368,000
The numbers: Kerry won by 221,000

That's a 589,000 turnaround, or about 7% of the total 7.3mm votes. 

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Is that they have a paper ballot to recount.  Of course, knowing that they can
be recounted, why would anyone take the risk of fraud with these?

More likely is to take the chance on rigging the touchscreens which can not be
recounted.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

Also no recount if Jeb Bush is Gov. 
How do you think Jebbie won?

Optiscans AND touch screens were rigged.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

I presume if the optiscans were rigged it had to be at the central tabulators.

Do you happen to know whether these optiscans had precinct scanners which had
individual precinct totals?

Just curious.  Because we are not going to get hand counting here in TN and
optiscans are our second best choice when scanned and counted at the precinct
level.

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me

Check with adolfo.

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

n/t

"We are the ones we've been waiting for...." The Elders, Hopi Nation.

Past liberal, past progressive, all the way to full blown dissident.... Me