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THE CLINCHER: IT DROVE THE NAYSAYERS NUTS! [View all]
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Original Post: THE CLINCHER: IT DROVE THE NAYSAYERS NUTS!
TruthIsAll Moderator Click to send a private message to this memberClick to view this member's profileClick to view posts by this memberClick to add this member to your buddy list
Member since Sep 14th 2005
1399 posts
Wed Oct-12-05 06:21 PM
Original Post
 
 
Edited by TruthIsAll on Thu Oct-13-05 04:38 AM 

It's in the Interactive Election Model.

		THE VOTED IN 2000 DEMOGRAPHIC										
												
The National Exit Poll weights are IMPOSSIBLE in both timelines.

We will now prove that the 41% Bush/39% Gore 2000 voter split in the
Preliminary National Exit poll (13047 respondents), which Kerry WON by 51-48%,
and the 43%/37% split in the Final (13660 respondents), which Kerry LOST by
51-48%, are BOTH impossible. 

Naysayers, refute that.							

Here's the proof:
Bush got 50.456 mm votes in 2000, or 41.30% of the 2004 vote (122.2 mm).
Gore got  51.0 mm (41.75%)							
Nader got 2.883 mm (2.36%)

Naysayers, refute that.							
												
But this assumes that ALL 2000 voters were still alive AND voted in 2004.
We know can calculate the approximate number who died, since the annual U.S.
death rate is 0.87%, or 3.5% between elections.

Naysayers, refute that.							
										
THIS TELLS US THAT THE FINAL EXIT POLL, WHICH WAS MATCHED TO THE RECORDED VOTE,
OVERSTATED THE BUSH VOTE BY AT LEAST 4 MILLION VOTES. 

Naysayers, refute that.							

It's very simple, although it took SIX months before the naysayers got it.
And so they had to come up with another faith-based argument: Gore voters
forgot or lied when they were interviwed by the exit pollsters and said they
voted for Bush in 2000. Really, that's what they have been reduced to. 

Naysayers, refute that.							

Calculate the revised realistic,plausible MAXIMUM weightings:
Voted	2000	Pct	Died	Alive	Revised							

Gore 	51.00	41.75%	1.79	49.22	40.28%					
Bush 	50.46	41.30%	1.77	48.69	39.85%					
Nader	2.88	2.36%	0.10	2.78	2.28%							
												
They are the MAXIMUM weights because we know that some 2000 voters did not vote
in 2004.

Naysayers, refute that.							

But let's assume that all 2000 voters turned out in 2004. 
With the revised weightings, Kerry is the CLEAR winner, EVEN USING THE FINAL
EXIT POLL PERCENTAGES.

Naysayers, refute that.							


MORE LIKELY, USING THE 13047 EXIT POLL TIMELINE, KERRY WON BY 6.7MM VOTES!
IT'S NOT EVEN CLOSE. 

Naysayers, refute that.							

THE PROBABILITY OF THESE DEVIATIONS FROM THE RECORDED VOTE ARE ASTRONOMICAL: 
1 IN 15-21 TRILLION (SEE BELOW).	

											
	          12:22am (13047 respondents)		 Final 2:04pm (13660)
Voted
2000	Weight	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total	
No	17.58%	21.48	57%	41%	2%	100%	17.58%	54%	45%	1%	100%	
Gore	40.28%	49.22	91%	8%	1%	100%	40.28%	90%	10%	0%	100%	
Bush	39.85%	48.69	10%	90%	0%	100%	39.85%	9%	91%	0%	100%	
Other	2.28%	2.79	71%	21%	8%	100%	2.28%	71%	21%	8%	100%	
												
Total 	100%		52.28%	46.78%	0.94%		100%	50.96%	48.69%	0.36%		
Vote 		122.17	63.88	57.15	1.14		122.17	62.25	59.48	0.44		
	Kerry	Margin: 6.73 million		 Kerry Margin: 2.77 million		
												

The probabilities of these vote discrepancies, assuming a 1.05% Exit Poll MoE
(20% CLUSTER effect):

Kerry:1 in 15.0 trillion =1/NORMDIST(.5228,.4832,.0105/1.96,TRUE)
Naysayers, refute that.							
	
Bush: 1 in 20.8 trillion = 1/(NORMDIST(.4678,.5077,.0105/1.96,TRUE)
Naysayers, refute that.							

Compare these to the odds that Bush's vote would exceed the MoE in 16 states: 
1 in 19.1 trillion. 
Naysayers, refute that.							

No states exceeded the MoE for Kerry.
Naysayers, refute that.							
	
If Kerry won 57% of New Voters (see 12:22am timeline) then assuming 100% Bush
2000 voter turnout, then:	
a) for Kerry to just tie Bush, he needed a MINIMUM 80% Gore voter turnout.	
Very plausible.
Naysayers, refute that.							

b) for Bush to win by 3mm votes, he needed a MAXIMUM 71% Gore turnout.
Impossible.
Naysayers, refute that.							

											

If Kerry won 54% of New Voters (see 1:25pm final) then:
a) for Kerry to tie Bush, he needed a MINIMUM 85% Gore voter turnout.
Very plausible.
Naysayers, refute that.							

b) for Bush to win by 3mm votes, he needed a MAXIMUM 77%  Gore turnout.
Impossible.										
Naysayers, refute that.							
											
Here's a table of Kerry's popular vote percentage for any combination of
Kerry's share of New voters and Gore 2000 voter turnout, along with
the corresponding table of Kerry's margin of victory.

We'll assume 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout. Lets give the naysayers the benefit
of the doubt. Even this won't help their case; in fact, it destroys it.
They are hoisted by their own petard.

Naysayers, refute that.							
	
	
				National Exit Poll Sensitivity Analysis 								
												
				Effect of New Voter Share and Gore Voter Turnout 								
				on Kerry's Vote Percentage and Margin 								
				  (assume 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout) 								
												
												
	Respondents		11027		13047			13660			
		Updated		7:33pm		12:22am			2:04pm			
												
Gore	Revised	Did Not				Kerry Percentage of New Voters						
Turnout	Weight	Vote	60.0%	59.0%	58.0%	57.0%	56.0%	55.0%	54.0%	53.0%	52.0%	51.0%
												
						Kerry National Vote 						
												
100.0%	40.28%	17.58%	52.8%	52.6%	52.5%	52.3%	52.1%	51.9%	51.8%	51.6%	51.4%	51.2%
99.0%	39.88%	17.98%	52.7%	52.5%	52.3%	52.1%	52.0%	51.8%	51.6%	51.4%	51.2%	51.1%
98.0%	39.48%	18.39%	52.6%	52.4%	52.2%	52.0%	51.8%	51.6%	51.5%	51.3%	51.1%	50.9%
97.0%	39.08%	18.79%	52.4%	52.2%	52.1%	51.9%	51.7%	51.5%	51.3%	51.1%	50.9%	50.7%
96.0%	38.67%	19.19%	52.3%	52.1%	51.9%	51.7%	51.5%	51.4%	51.2%	51.0%	50.8%	50.6%
												
95.0%	38.27%	19.60%	52.2%	52.0%	51.8%	51.6%	51.4%	51.2%	51.0%	50.8%	50.6%	50.4%
94.0%	37.87%	20.00%	52.1%	51.9%	51.7%	51.5%	51.3%	51.1%	50.9%	50.7%	50.5%	50.3%
93.0%	37.46%	20.40%	51.9%	51.7%	51.5%	51.3%	51.1%	50.9%	50.7%	50.5%	50.3%	50.1%
92.0%	37.06%	20.80%	51.8%	51.6%	51.4%	51.2%	51.0%	50.8%	50.6%	50.4%	50.1%	49.9%
91.0%	36.66%	21.21%	51.7%	51.5%	51.3%	51.1%	50.8%	50.6%	50.4%	50.2%	50.0%	49.8%
												
90.0%	36.26%	21.61%	51.6%	51.3%	51.1%	50.9%	50.7%	50.5%	50.3%	50.1%	49.8%	49.6%
89.0%	35.85%	22.01%	51.4%	51.2%	51.0%	50.8%	50.6%	50.3%	50.1%	49.9%	49.7%	49.5%
88.0%	35.45%	22.42%	51.3%	51.1%	50.9%	50.6%	50.4%	50.2%	50.0%	49.7%	49.5%	49.3%
87.0%	35.05%	22.82%	51.2%	51.0%	50.7%	50.5%	50.3%	50.0%	49.8%	49.6%	49.4%	49.1%
86.0%	34.64%	23.22%	51.1%	50.8%	50.6%	50.4%	50.1%	49.9%	49.7%	49.4%	49.2%	49.0%
												
85.0%	34.24%	23.62%	50.9%	50.7%	50.5%	50.2%	50.0%	49.8%	49.5%	49.3%	49.0%	48.8%
84.0%	33.84%	24.03%	50.8%	50.6%	50.3%	50.1%	49.9%	49.6%	49.4%	49.1%	48.9%	48.7%
83.0%	33.44%	24.43%	50.7%	50.4%	50.2%	50.0%	49.7%	49.5%	49.2%	49.0%	48.7%	48.5%
82.0%	33.03%	24.83%	50.6%	50.3%	50.1%	49.8%	49.6%	49.3%	49.1%	48.8%	48.6%	48.3%
81.0%	32.63%	25.24%	50.4%	50.2%	49.9%	49.7%	49.4%	49.2%	48.9%	48.7%	48.4%	48.2%
												
80.0%	32.23%	25.64%	50.3%	50.1%	49.8%	49.5%	49.3%	49.0%	48.8%	48.5%	48.3%	48.0%
79.0%	31.82%	26.04%	50.2%	49.9%	49.7%	49.4%	49.1%	48.9%	48.6%	48.4%	48.1%	47.8%
78.0%	31.42%	26.44%	50.1%	49.8%	49.5%	49.3%	49.0%	48.7%	48.5%	48.2%	47.9%	47.7%
77.0%	31.02%	26.85%	49.9%	49.7%	49.4%	49.1%	48.9%	48.6%	48.3%	48.1%	47.8%	47.5%
76.0%	30.62%	27.25%	49.8%	49.5%	49.3%	49.0%	48.7%	48.5%	48.2%	47.9%	47.6%	47.4%
												
75.0%	30.21%	27.65%	49.7%	49.4%	49.1%	48.9%	48.6%	48.3%	48.0%	47.8%	47.5%	47.2%
74.0%	29.81%	28.06%	49.6%	49.3%	49.0%	48.7%	48.4%	48.2%	47.9%	47.6%	47.3%	47.0%
73.0%	29.41%	28.46%	49.4%	49.2%	48.9%	48.6%	48.3%	48.0%	47.7%	47.4%	47.2%	46.9%
72.0%	29.00%	28.86%	49.3%	49.0%	48.7%	48.4%	48.2%	47.9%	47.6%	47.3%	47.0%	46.7%
71.0%	28.60%	29.26%	49.2%	48.9%	48.6%	48.3%	48.0%	47.7%	47.4%	47.1%	46.8%	46.6%
												
										
												
Gore	Revised	Did Not				Kerry Percentage of New Voters						
Turnout	Weight	Vote	60%	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%	53%	52%	51%
												
												
						Kerry Margin (millions)						

100%	40.28%	17.58%	8.01	7.59	7.16	6.73	6.30	5.87	5.44	5.01	4.58	4.15
99%	39.88%	17.98%	7.71	7.27	6.83	6.39	5.95	5.51	5.07	4.63	4.19	3.75
98%	39.48%	18.39%	7.40	6.96	6.51	6.06	5.61	5.16	4.71	4.26	3.81	3.36
97%	39.08%	18.79%	7.10	6.64	6.18	5.72	5.26	4.80	4.34	3.89	3.43	2.97
96%	38.67%	19.19%	6.79	6.33	5.86	5.39	4.92	4.45	3.98	3.51	3.04	2.57
												
95%	38.27%	19.60%	6.49	6.01	5.53	5.05	4.57	4.09	3.62	3.14	2.66	2.18
94%	37.87%	20.00%	6.18	5.70	5.21	4.72	4.23	3.74	3.25	2.76	2.27	1.79
93%	37.46%	20.40%	5.88	5.38	4.88	4.38	3.88	3.39	2.89	2.39	1.89	1.39
92%	37.06%	20.80%	5.57	5.07	4.56	4.05	3.54	3.03	2.52	2.02	1.51	1.00
91%	36.66%	21.21%	5.27	4.75	4.23	3.71	3.20	2.68	2.16	1.64	1.12	0.60
												
90%	36.26%	21.61%	4.96	4.44	3.91	3.38	2.85	2.32	1.80	1.27	0.74	0.21
89%	35.85%	22.01%	4.66	4.12	3.58	3.04	2.51	1.97	1.43	0.89	0.36	-0.18
88%	35.45%	22.42%	4.35	3.81	3.26	2.71	2.16	1.61	1.07	0.52	-0.03	-0.58
87%	35.05%	22.82%	4.05	3.49	2.93	2.38	1.82	1.26	0.70	0.15	-0.41	-0.97
86%	34.64%	23.22%	3.74	3.18	2.61	2.04	1.47	0.91	0.34	-0.23	-0.80	-1.36
												
85%	34.24%	23.62%	3.44	2.86	2.28	1.71	1.13	0.55	-0.03	-0.60	-1.18	-1.76
84%	33.84%	24.03%	3.13	2.55	1.96	1.37	0.78	0.20	-0.39	-0.98	-1.56	-2.15
83%	33.44%	24.43%	2.83	2.23	1.63	1.04	0.44	-0.16	-0.75	-1.35	-1.95	-2.54
82%	33.03%	24.83%	2.52	1.92	1.31	0.70	0.10	-0.51	-1.12	-1.73	-2.33	-2.94
81%	32.63%	25.24%	2.22	1.60	0.98	0.37	-0.25	-0.87	-1.48	-2.10	-2.72	-3.33
												
80%	32.23%	25.64%	1.91	1.29	0.66	0.03	-0.59	-1.22	-1.85	-2.47	-3.10	-3.73
79%	31.82%	26.04%	1.61	0.97	0.33	-0.30	-0.94	-1.57	-2.21	-2.85	-3.48	-4.12
78%	31.42%	26.44%	1.30	0.66	0.01	-0.64	-1.28	-1.93	-2.58	-3.22	-3.87	-4.51
77%	31.02%	26.85%	1.00	0.34	-0.32	-0.97	-1.63	-2.28	-2.94	-3.60	-4.25	-4.91
76%	30.62%	27.25%	0.69	0.03	-0.64	-1.31	-1.97	-2.64	-3.30	-3.97	-4.64	-5.30
												
75%	30.21%	27.65%	0.39	-0.29	-0.97	-1.64	-2.32	-2.99	-3.67	-4.34	-5.02	-5.69
74%	29.81%	28.06%	0.08	-0.60	-1.29	-1.98	-2.66	-3.35	-4.03	-4.72	-5.40	-6.09
73%	29.41%	28.46%	-0.22	-0.92	-1.61	-2.31	-3.01	-3.70	-4.40	-5.09	-5.79	-6.48
72%	29.00%	28.86%	-0.53	-1.23	-1.94	-2.64	-3.35	-4.06	-4.76	-5.47	-6.17	-6.88
71%	28.60%	29.26%	-0.83	-1.55	-2.26	-2.98	-3.69	-4.41	-5.12	-5.84	-6.55	-7.27

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.

Alert Printer-friendly copy | Permalink | | Reply

2 replies to this thread:
THE CLINCHER: IT DROVE THE NAYSAYERS NUTS! [View all] , TruthIsAll, Wed Oct-12-05 06:21 PM
#1: Wow.....That puts the final nail in the coffin...., All_The_States, Oct 12th 2005
#2: TIA -Just popped in from DU-to say thanks!, jarnocan, Oct 13th 2005
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