A Comprehensive 2004 Election Analysis

This analysis determines the effect of uncounted and switched votes on the 2004
popular and electoral vote. It also provides a comprehensive sensitivity
analysis to view the effect on the popular vote of incremental changes in the
National Exit Poll (NEP) demographic weights and vote shares. 

The basis for the analysis is the NEP "How Voted in 2000"
demographic. The Final NEP forced all demographic weightings and vote shares to
match the recorded vote count. This required using impossible weightings in the
"How Voted in 2000" demographic. In this study, the weights were
adjusted to feasible values. Using realistic plausible weightings and the
12:22am Exit Poll vote shares, Kerry won the election by 52.6-46.4%, a 7.7
million vote margin. The true vote share was then applied to determine the
level of switched votes required to match the recorded result.

The source data for the study includes the following:
1) 2000 total national vote 
2) 2004 total state vote
3) 2004 National Exit Poll (12:22am and 2pm Final) 
4) Census 2004 vote estimate 
5) 2000 annual mortality rate

The National Exit Poll (NEP) "How Voted in 2000" demographic weights
were adjusted to match 2000 Gore/Bush/Nader vote percentages. This was
accomplished by applying the 0.87% annual mortality rate and assuming a 95%
turnout of 2000 voters. NEP vote shares were not changed. The resulting
calculation indicates that Kerry won by 7.7 million votes (66.10-58.38). The
recorded Bush margin was 3.0 million (62.04-59.03).

According to historical data, approximately 3% of the total votes cast are
never counted. Approximately 50% of uncounted votes are found in highly
Democratic (90%) minority districts; therefore, 75% of uncounted votes are
assumed to be Democratic. The 2004 Census reported that 125.7 million voted, as
opposed to 122.3mm recorded. The 3.4mm discrepancy (2.74% of 125.7) is the total
number of uncounted votes used in the model. The racial mix in each state was
used to approximate the number of uncounted votes in the state. The vote-switch
rate was assumed to be constant across all states.

Given the 2004 Census 125.74 million (0.30% MoE) total votes cast and the
12:22am NEP vote shares, the "Voted 2000" weights are constrained by
the number of returning 2000 voters which is calculated by applying the 0.87%
annual mortality rate (3.5% over 4 years) and an assumed 95% voter turnout.
Therefore, the number of new 2004 voters who did not vote in 2000 (27.02
million) is equal to the difference between the 125.74mm total votes cast and
the 98.72mm returning Gore, Bush and Other (Nader,Buchanan) voters.	

Based on these assumptions, Kerry won the TRUE vote by 66.10-58.38mm
(52.57-46.43%) and the electoral vote by 336-202. The model indicates that 6.8%
of Kerry votes were switched to Bush. 

The model includes four groups of sensitivity analyses. The first group focuses
on uncounted and switched votes and consists of four tables. The first table
displays the effect of incremental changes in switched vote rates on various
key statistics. Given the base case 6.8% vote-switch, Kerry won the TRUE vote
by 7.7 million and the electoral vote by 336-202. The second table displays the
effect of incremental vote-switch rates on the electoral vote, given a constant
75% Democratic share of uncounted votes. The third displays the effect of
incremental changes in uncounted and switched vote rates on Kerry vote shares.
His vote share increases by 0.028% for each 1% increase in the uncounted vote
rate and by 0.469% for each 1% increase in the switched vote rate. The changes
in vote share are linear (constant). The fourth displays the effect of
incremental changes in uncounted and switched vote rates on Kerry's margin of
victory. 

The second group consists is based on the 12:22am National Exit Poll and
consists of six tables. Each table displays 200 scenarios of 2000 voter turnout
and Kerry's share of those who did not vote (DNV): newly registered and others
who did not vote in 2000.  The first three tables display the impact of
incremental changes in 2000 Gore/Bush voter turnout and Kerry's share of DNV on
1) his national vote share, 2) vote margin and 3) probability of winning a 49.5%
majority (the third-party vote was 1%). Kerry easily won all 200 scenarios. 

The next three tables in the group also display the impact of incremental
changes in Gore voter turnout and Kerry's share of new voters, but assume 100%
Bush/Nader 2000 voter turnout. The tables provide powerful circumstantial
evidence that Kerry won. Despite the Bush turnout advantage, Kerry still won
199 of 200 scenarios. His only loss was the 91% Gore voter turnout/51% new
voter share case. 

The following scenario illustrates just how unlikely it was that Bush won. Even
assuming that Kerry won just 51% of new 2004 voters (it was 57% in the 12:22am
NEP) and that 95% of Gore 2000 voters turned out in 2004 (compared to 100%
turnout for Bush/Nader), Kerry still wins by 1.76 million votes (50.19-48.81%).

The third sensitivity group measures the effect on Kerry's national vote share
(based on the adjusted 12:22am NEP) by ranging over incremental Kerry vote
shares and weightings for each demographic. For instance, the 12:22am NEP
Party-ID weighting mix was 38% Dem/35% Rep/27% Ind. Kerry won 92% of the
Democratic vote. The sensitivity table ranges over Democratic weights (35-40%)
and Kerry Democratic vote shares (89-95%). The 35% Democratic Party-ID
weighting and 89% Kerry Democratic vote share scenario is the (highly unlikely)
WORST CASE SCENARIO; it produced a 48.9% Kerry national vote share. The BASE
CASE (38/92%) SCENARIO combination produced a 52.5% share. The BEST CASE
(40/95%) SCENARIO (highly unlikely) generated a 55.4% share.

The fourth sensitivity group consists of five tables categorized by Kerry's
share of DNV (51-61%). The tables represent a 49-element (7x7) matrix of Kerry
national vote shares. The vote shares are calculated based on 49 combination
scenarios of Kerry's share of returning Gore and Bush 2000 voters. 

_________________________________________________________________

RECORDED VOTE
(in millions)

2000
Gore	Bush	Other  Total
51.004	50.459	3.275 104.738
48.70%	48.18%	3.12%					

2004
Kerry	Bush	Other	Total
59.027	62.040	1.228 122.295
48.27%	50.73%	1.00%					


2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
HOW VOTED IN 2000


PRELIMINARY (12:22am, 13047 respondents)
Voted  Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other  Votes
No	17%	57%	41%	2%    20.79
Gore	39%	91%	8%	1%    47.70
Bush	41%	10%	90%	0%    50.14
Other	3%	71%	21%	8%     3.67 (Nader + Buchanan)
				
Total 	100%	51.41%	47.62%	0.97%
Votes	122.30	62.87	58.24	1.19 122.30

FINAL (2pm, 13660 respondents)
Voted  Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other  Votes
No	17%	54%	45%	1%    20.79
Gore	37%	90%	10%	0%    45.25
Bush	43%	9%	91%	0%    52.59
Other	3%	71%	21%	8%     3.67
				
Total 	100%	48.48%	51.11%	0.41%
Votes	122.30	59.29	62.50	0.50 122.30

ADJUSTED (TRUE) VOTE

Voted  Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other  Votes
No	21.49%	57%	41%	2%	27.02
Gore	38.23%	91%	8%	1%	48.08
Bush	37.83%	10%	90%	0%	47.56
Other	2.46%	71%	21%	8%	3.09
					
Total 	100%	52.57%	46.43%	1.00%	125.74
Votes	125.74	66.10	58.38	1.26	

_________________________________________________________________



***************************************
VOTE DISCREPANCY ASSUMPTIONS:
(in thousands)

UNCOUNTED VOTE SHARE 
Kerry  75%:  2,582 
Bush   24%:    826 
Other   1%:     34 
Total 100%:  3,442 (2.74% of Census 125.7mm)	

SWITCHED VOTES
(in thousands)
6.8% (4,488) of total Votes cast for Kerry switched to Bush 

KERRY VOTE RECONCILIATION
TRUE	   66,097 100.0%	
Unctd    -2,582  3.91%
------  ------- ------
Net      63,515 96.09%
Switch   -4,488  6.79%
------  ------- ------
Recorded 59,027 89.30%

EFFECT ON POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE
........Vote......Electoral Vote
	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush					
Actual 59027	62040	252	286					
Effect  7070	-3662	 84	-84					
TRUE	66097	58378	336	202				
VOTE	52.57%	46.43%						

_________________________________________________________________

BASE CASE SUMMARY
(votes in thousands)

Switched votes:6.8%

UNCOUNTED BY PARTY   
    							       Switch TRUE VOTE	
Kerry	75%	59027	48.27%	2582	61609	49.0%	2.11%	 4488	66097	52.57%
Bush	24%	62040	50.73%	 826	62866	50.0%	0.68%	-4488	58378	46.43%
Other	 1%	 1228	 1.00%	  34	 1262	 1.0%	0.03%	    0	 1262	 1.00%
Total	2.74%	122295	100%	3442	125737	100%	2.82%	    0	125737	100%

_________________________________________________________________

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS I:
Various effects of incremental switched vote rates 
(assume 75% Kerry share of uncounted votes)


       Kerry%	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Margin	KerryEV	Bush EV
Actual  48.27%	50.73%	59027	62040	-3013	252	286

Switch	
6.8%	52.57%	46.43%	66097	58383	7714	336	202	CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,NM,OH	
6.5%	52.42%	46.58%	65906	58570	7336	325	213	CO,FL,IA,NV,NM,OH	
6.0%	52.15%	46.84%	65575	58901	6675	325	213		
5.0%	51.63%	47.37%	64914	59562	5353	325	213		
4.0%	51.10%	47.90%	64253	60223	4031	325	213		
3.0%	50.58%	48.42%	63592	60883	2709	289	249	IA,NV,NM	
2.0%	50.05%	48.95%	62931	61544	1387	289	249		
1.0%	49.52%	49.47%	62270	62205	65	264	274	IA,NM	
0.0%	49.00%	50.00%	61609	62866	-1257	264	274		

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS II:
Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on Kerry's EV


Switched			Kerry Electoral Vote				
Vote Rate			Uncounted Vote Share				
336	50%	55%	60%	65%	70%	75%	80%
6.8%	325	325	325	325	325	336	336
6.5%	325	325	325	325	325	325	336
6.0%	325	325	325	325	325	325	325
5.0%	298	298	325	325	325	325	325
4.0%	289	289	289	289	289	325	325
3.0%	289	289	289	289	289	289	289
2.0%	264	284	284	284	289	289	289
1.0%	264	264	264	264	264	264	284
0.0%	252	252	252	252	259	264	264
							
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS III:
Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on Kerry's vote share
							
Switched			Kerry Vote Share				
Vote Rate			Uncounted Vote Share				
      	50%	55%	60%	65%	70%	75%	80%
6.8%	51.89%	52.03%	52.16%	52.30%	52.44%	52.57%	52.71%
6.5%	51.73%	51.87%	52.00%	52.14%	52.28%	52.42%	52.55%
6.0%	51.47%	51.60%	51.74%	51.88%	52.02%	52.15%	52.29%
5.0%	50.94%	51.08%	51.22%	51.35%	51.49%	51.63%	51.76%
4.0%	50.42%	50.55%	50.69%	50.83%	50.96%	51.10%	51.24%
3.0%	49.89%	50.03%	50.16%	50.30%	50.44%	50.58%	50.71%
2.0%	49.36%	49.50%	49.64%	49.78%	49.91%	50.05%	50.19%
1.0%	48.84%	48.98%	49.11%	49.25%	49.39%	49.52%	49.66%
0.0%	48.31%	48.45%	48.59%	48.72%	48.86%	49.00%	49.14%
							
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IV:
Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on Kerry's vote margin
							
							
Switched			Kerry Margin (in thousands)				
Vote Rate			Uncounted Vote Share				
	50%	55%	60%	65%	70%	75%	80%
6.8%	6011	6355	6699	7044	7388	7732	8077
6.5%	5614	5958	6303	6647	6991	7336	7680
6.0%	4953	5297	5642	5986	6330	6675	7019
5.0%	3631	3975	4320	4664	5008	5353	5697
4.0%	2309	2654	2998	3342	3686	4031	4375
3.0%	987	1332	1676	2020	2365	2709	3053
2.0%	-335	10	354	698	1043	1387	1731
1.0%	-1657	-1312	-968	-624	-279	65	409
0.0%	-2979	-2634	-2290	-1946	-1601	-1257	-913

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS V:
PROBABILITY OF KERRY VOTE DISCREPANCY
MoE: 1.0%

Switched			Probability of Vote Discrepancy				
Vote Rate			Uncounted Vote Share				
	    50%	55%	60%	65%	70%	75%	80%
0.E+00	5.E-01	6.E-01	6.E-01	7.E-01	7.E-01	8.E-01	8.E-01
7.E-02	6.E-13	9.E-14	1.E-14	1.E-15	1.E-16	0.E+00	0.E+00
7.E-02	6.E-12	8.E-13	1.E-13	2.E-14	2.E-15	2.E-16	0.E+00
6.E-02	2.E-10	3.E-11	5.E-12	7.E-13	1.E-13	1.E-14	2.E-15
5.E-02	8.E-08	2.E-08	4.E-09	7.E-10	1.E-10	2.E-11	4.E-12
4.E-02	1.E-05	4.E-06	1.E-06	3.E-07	6.E-08	1.E-08	3.E-09
3.E-02	7.E-04	3.E-04	1.E-04	3.E-05	1.E-05	3.E-06	8.E-07
2.E-02	2.E-02	8.E-03	4.E-03	2.E-03	6.E-04	2.E-04	8.E-05
1.E-02	1.E-01	8.E-02	5.E-02	3.E-02	1.E-02	7.E-03	3.E-03
0.E+00	5.E-01	4.E-01	3.E-01	2.E-01	1.E-01	8.E-02	4.E-02
							

___________________________________________________________________

ANALYSIS OF UNCOUNTED AND SWITCHED VOTES BY STATE
(votes in thousands)

Uncounted: 2.74% of total votes cast
Kerry:    2.06%  
Bush:     0.66% 

White:    1.60% 
Non-white:7.50%

Switched: 7.60%
						
		Recorded Vote			+ Uncounted	+ Switched = TRUE Vote					
	Total	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Margin	
	122295	59027	62040	48.27%	50.73%	2582	826	4488	66097	58378	52.57%	46.43%	Change	EVFlip

AL	1877	694	1176	37.0%	62.7%	42	14	47	784	1142	40.5%	59.1%	6.4%	
AK	307	111	191	36.2%	62.2%	7	2	8	125	186	39.7%	58.7%	6.3%	
AZ	1998	894	1104	44.7%	55.3%	31	10	61	986	1053	48.3%	51.6%	7.0%	
AR	1049	470	573	44.8%	54.6%	19	6	32	521	547	48.5%	50.9%	7.2%	
CA	12255	6745	5510	55.0%	45.0%	246	79	458	7449	5131	59.2%	40.8%	8.6%	
														
CO	2116	1002	1101	47.4%	52.0%	31	10	68	1101	1043	51.0%	48.3%	7.3%	9
CT	1564	857	694	54.8%	44.4%	26	8	58	941	644	58.9%	40.3%	8.4%	
DC	226	203	21	89.8%	9.3%	10	3	14	227	10	94.8%	4.3%	14.4%	
DE	373	200	172	53.6%	46.1%	8	2	14	221	161	57.7%	42.0%	8.5%	
FL	7582	3584	3965	47.3%	52.3%	140	45	243	3967	3766	51.1%	48.5%	7.5%	27
														
GA	3280	1366	1914	41.6%	58.4%	81	26	93	1540	1847	45.4%	54.5%	7.1%	
HI	426	232	194	54.5%	45.5%	18	6	16	265	184	59.0%	40.9%	9.7%	
ID	590	181	409	30.7%	69.3%	7	2	12	201	399	33.5%	66.5%	4.9%	
IL	5238	2892	2346	55.2%	44.8%	99	32	196	3187	2181	59.4%	40.6%	8.6%	
IN	2448	969	1479	39.6%	60.4%	37	12	66	1072	1425	42.9%	57.1%	6.3%	
														
IA	1500	742	752	49.5%	50.1%	19	6	50	811	708	53.2%	46.4%	7.4%	7
KS	1180	435	736	36.9%	62.4%	18	6	30	482	712	40.1%	59.2%	5.9%	
KY	1791	713	1069	39.8%	59.7%	26	8	48	788	1029	43.1%	56.4%	6.3%	
LA	1929	820	1102	42.5%	57.1%	49	16	56	925	1062	46.4%	53.2%	7.3%	
ME	735	397	330	54.0%	44.9%	9	3	27	433	306	57.9%	41.0%	8.0%	
														
MD	2370	1334	1024	56.3%	43.2%	60	19	91	1484	952	60.6%	38.9%	9.1%	
MA	2875	1804	1071	62.7%	37.3%	46	15	122	1972	963	67.2%	32.8%	9.4%	
MI	4816	2479	2313	51.5%	48.0%	89	28	168	2736	2173	55.4%	44.0%	8.0%	
MN	2811	1445	1347	51.4%	47.9%	41	13	98	1584	1262	55.3%	44.0%	7.8%	
MS	1146	458	685	40.0%	59.8%	31	10	31	520	664	43.8%	55.9%	7.0%	
														
MO	2715	1259	1456	46.4%	53.6%	45	15	85	1390	1385	50.1%	49.9%	7.3%	11
MT	446	174	266	39.0%	59.6%	6	2	12	192	256	42.3%	56.4%	6.1%	
NE	773	254	513	32.9%	66.4%	11	3	17	282	499	35.8%	63.4%	5.3%	
NV	821	397	419	48.4%	51.0%	14	5	27	438	397	52.2%	47.2%	7.6%	5
NH	675	340	331	50.4%	49.0%	8	3	23	371	311	54.1%	45.3%	7.5%	
														
NJ	3600	1911	1670	53.1%	46.4%	72	23	130	2113	1563	57.2%	42.3%	8.4%	
NM	751	370	377	49.3%	50.2%	13	4	25	408	356	53.1%	46.4%	7.7%	5
NY	7377	4314	2963	58.5%	40.2%	158	50	293	4764	2720	62.8%	35.9%	9.1%	
NC	3487	1526	1961	43.8%	56.2%	74	24	104	1704	1881	47.5%	52.5%	7.2%	
ND	312	111	197	35.6%	63.1%	4	1	8	123	191	38.7%	60.1%	5.7%	
														
OH	5601	2741	2860	48.9%	51.1%	94	30	186	3021	2704	52.8%	47.2%	7.6%	20
OK	1464	504	960	34.4%	65.6%	28	9	34	566	935	37.7%	62.3%	5.8%	
OR	1810	943	867	52.1%	47.9%	26	8	64	1033	811	56.0%	44.0%	7.9%	
PA	5732	2938	2794	51.3%	48.7%	93	30	199	3231	2624	55.2%	44.8%	7.9%	
RI	434	260	169	59.9%	38.9%	7	2	18	284	153	64.2%	34.7%	9.0%	
														
SC	1606	662	938	41.2%	58.4%	38	12	45	745	905	45.0%	54.6%	7.0%	
SD	386	149	233	38.6%	60.4%	6	2	10	165	225	41.9%	57.1%	6.1%	
TN	2429	1036	1384	42.7%	57.0%	45	14	70	1151	1328	46.3%	53.4%	6.9%	
TX	7360	2833	4527	38.5%	61.5%	129	41	192	3155	4376	41.9%	58.1%	6.3%	
UT	916	241	664	26.3%	72.5%	12	4	16	269	651	28.9%	69.9%	4.4%	
														
VT	309	184	121	59.5%	39.2%	4	1	12	200	110	63.8%	34.9%	8.7%	
VA	3172	1455	1717	45.9%	54.1%	68	22	99	1622	1640	49.7%	50.3%	7.5%	
WA	2838	1510	1305	53.2%	46.0%	47	15	103	1660	1218	57.2%	42.0%	8.2%	
WV	755	327	424	43.3%	56.2%	9	3	22	359	405	46.7%	52.7%	6.6%	
WI	2984	1490	1478	49.9%	49.5%	44	14	101	1635	1391	53.7%	45.7%	7.6%	
WY	242	71	168	29.3%	69.4%	3	1	5	79	164	32.0%	66.7%	4.8%	

_________________________________________________________________

				2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS			

Final Recorded Vote							
Kerry	Bush	Other					
48.27%	50.73%	1.00%					
59.027	62.040	1.228					
					
Preliminary Exit Poll: 
12:22am, 13047 respondents
122.3mm recorded vote

Final Exit Poll: 
2:04pm, 13660 respondents

Adjusted Demographics: 
Total votes cast: 125.74mm (Census 2004) 
Vote shares adjusted to match 66.0-58.5mm vote 

"Voted 2000" weights: 
2000 vote less 0.87% annual mortality; 
Assume 95% of 2000 voters turned out in 2004
	
	        PRELIMINARY 			       FINAL     	                    ADJUSTED			

CATEGORY	Kerry	Bush	Other			Kerry	Bush	Other			Kerry	Bush	Other
Average.....50.73%	47.84%	1.35%			47.94%	51.07%	0.98%			52.53%	46.47%	1.00%
Votes.......62.03	58.50	1.65			58.62	62.46	1.20			66.04	58.45	1.25
													
Gender......50.78%	48.22%	1.00%			47.78%	51.22%	1.00%			52.50%	46.50%	1.00%
Party-ID....50.69%	47.50%	1.81%			47.89%	50.96%	1.15%			52.50%	46.50%	1.00%
Voted 2000..51.41%	47.62%	0.97%			48.48%	51.11%	0.26%			52.57%	46.43%	1.00%
Region......50.53%	47.95%	1.52%			48.24%	51.08%	0.68%			52.62%	46.38%	1.00%
Education...50.43%	48.18%	1.39%			47.82%	51.24%	0.94%			52.56%	46.44%	1.00%
													
Race........50.94%	47.86%	1.20%			47.81%	50.99%	1.20%			52.55%	46.45%	1.00%
Age.........50.26%	47.69%	2.05%			47.96%	51.28%	0.76%			52.49%	46.51%	1.00%
Income......51.39%	47.39%	1.22%			48.13%	51.02%	0.85%			52.51%	46.49%	1.00%
Ideology....49.85%	48.15%	2.00%			47.25%	51.54%	1.21%			52.50%	46.50%	1.00%
Religion....50.78%	47.94%	1.28%			47.99%	50.77%	1.24%			52.51%	46.49%	1.00%
													
Military....51.20%	47.62%	1.18%			48.38%	50.44%	1.18%			52.56%	46.44%	1.00%
Decided.....50.44%	47.95%	1.61%			47.50%	51.22%	1.28%			52.54%	46.46%	1.00%
													
97.5% Confidence													
Maximum.....51.60%	48.35%	1.99%			48.59%	51.59%	1.55%			52.60%	46.54%	1.00%
Minimum.....49.85%	47.32%	0.72%			47.28%	50.55%	0.41%			52.46%	46.40%	1.00%

	        PRELIMINARY 			       FINAL     	                    ADJUSTED			
													
GENDER
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes
Male 	46%	47%	52%	1%		46%	44%	55%	1%		46.4%	49.5%	49.5%	1.0%	58.34
Female 54%	54%	45%	1%		54%	51%	48%	1%		53.6%	55.1%	43.9%	1.0%	67.40
		
Total
	100%	50.78%	48.22%	1.00%		100%	47.78%	51.22%	1.00%		100%	52.50%	46.50%	1.00%	125.74
Votes	122.30	62.10	58.97	1.22		122.30	58.43	62.64	1.22		125.74	66.02	58.47	1.26	
															
															
PARTY ID
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes
Dem	38%	90%	9%	1%		37%	89%	11%	0%		39%	91%	8%	1%	49.04
Rep 	35%	7%	92%	1%		37%	6%	93%	1%		35%	7%	92%	1%	44.01
Ind	27%	52%	44%	4%		26%	49%	48%	3%		26%	56%	43%	1%	32.69
		
Total
	100%	50.69%	47.50%	1.81%		100%	47.89%	50.96%	1.15%		100%	52.50%	46.50%	1.00%	125.74
Votes	122.30	61.99	58.09	2.21		122.30	58.57	62.32	1.41		125.74	66.01	58.47	1.26	
															
											95% turnout				
VOTED IN 2000
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes
No	17%	57%	41%	2%		17%	54%	45%	1%		21.49%	57%	41%	2%	27.40
Gore	39%	91%	8%	1%		37%	90%	10%	0%		38.23%	91%	8%	1%	48.07
Bush	41%	10%	90%	0%		43%	9%	91%	0%		37.83%	10%	90%	0%	47.56
Nader	3%	71%	21%	8%		3%	71%	21%	3%		2.46%	71%	21%	8%	2.72
		
Total
	100%	51.41%	47.62%	0.97%		100%	48.48%	51.11%	0.26%		100%	52.57%	46.43%	1.00%	125.74
Votes	122.30	62.87	58.24	1.19		122.11	59.29	62.50	0.32		125.74	66.10	58.38	1.26	
															
															
REGION
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes
East	22%	58%	41%	1%		22%	56%	43%	1%		22%	59%	40%	1%	27.66
Midw	26%	50%	49%	1%		26%	48%	51%	1%		26%	52%	47%	1%	32.69
South	31%	44%	54%	2%		32%	42%	58%	0%		31%	47%	52%	1%	38.98
West	21%	53%	45%	2%		20%	50%	49%	1%		21%	55%	44%	1%	26.41
												
Total	100%	50.53%	47.95%	1.52%		100%	48.24%	51.08%	0.68%		100%	52.62%	46.38%	1.00%	125.74
Votes	122.30	61.80	58.64	1.86		122.30	59.00	62.47	0.83		125.74	66.16	58.32	1.26	
															
															
EDUCATION
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes
NoHS	4%	53%	46%	1%		4%	50%	49%	1%		4%	56%	43%	1%	5.03
HSGr 	22%	50%	48%	2%		22%	47%	52%	1%		22%	52%	47%	1%	27.66
Col 	31%	48%	51%	1%		32%	46%	54%	0%		31%	50%	49%	1%	38.98
ColGr	26%	49%	50%	1%		26%	46%	52%	2%		26%	52%	47%	1%	32.69
PostG	17%	57%	41%	2%		16%	55%	44%	1%		17%	58%	41%	1%	21.38
		
Total
	100%	50.43%	48.18%	1.39%		100%	47.82%	51.24%	0.94%		100%	52.56%	46.44%	1.00%	120.71
Votes	122.30	61.67	58.92	1.70		122.30	58.48	62.66	1.15		125.74	66.09	58.39	1.26	
															
															
RACE/GENDER
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes
WMale	36%	41.0%	58.0%	1.0%		36.0%	37.0%	62.0%	1.0%		36%	42%	57%	1%	45.27
WFem	41%	47.0%	52.0%	1.0%		41.0%	44.0%	55.0%	1.0%		41%	47%	52%	1%	51.55
NwMale 10%	69.0%	28.0%	3.0%		10.0%	67.0%	30.0%	3.0%		10%	75%	24%	1%	12.57
NwFem	13%	77.0%	22.0%	1.0%		13.0%	75.0%	24.0%	1.0%		13%	82%	17%	1%	16.35
		
Total
	100%	50.94%	47.86%	1.20%		100%	47.81%	50.99%	1.20%		100%	52.55%	46.45%	1.00%	125.74
Votes	122.30	62.30	58.53	1.47		122.30	58.47	62.36	1.47		125.74	66.08	58.41	1.26	
															
															
AGE...
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes
18-29 	17%	56%	42%	2%		17%	54%	45%	1%		17%	58%	41%	1%	21.38
30-44 	29%	48%	49%	3%		29%	46%	53%	1%		29%	51%	48%	1%	36.46
45-59 	30%	51%	47%	2%		30%	48%	51%	1%		30%	52%	47%	1%	37.72
60+	24%	48%	51%	1%		24%	46%	54%	0%		24%	51%	48%	1%	30.18
		
Total
	100%	50.26%	47.69%	2.05%		100%	47.96%	51.28%	0.76%		100%	52.49%	46.51%	1.00%	125.74
Votes	122.30	61.47	58.32	2.51		122.30	58.65	62.71	0.93		125.74	66.00	58.48	1.26	
															
															
INCOME
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes
0-15K 	9%	65%	34%	1%		8%	63%	36%	1%		9%	67%	32%	1%	11.32
15-30 	15%	60%	38%	2%		15%	57%	42%	1%		15%	61%	38%	1%	18.86
30-50 	22%	53%	46%	1%		22%	50%	49%	1%		22%	54%	45%	1%	27.66
50-75 	23%	46%	53%	1%		23%	43%	56%	1%		23%	48%	51%	1%	28.92
75-100 	13%	48%	51%	1%		14%	45%	55%	0%		13%	48%	51%	1%	16.35
100-150 11%	45%	53%	2%		11%	42%	57%	1%		11%	46%	53%	1%	13.83
150-200 4%	47%	53%	0%		4%	42%	58%	0%		4%	47%	52%	1%	5.03
200+ 	3%	41%	58%	1%		3%	35%	63%	2%		3%	41%	58%	1%	3.77
												
Total
	100%	51.39%	47.39%	1.22%		100%	48.13%	51.02%	0.85%		100%	52.51%	46.49%	1.00%	125.74
Votes	122.30	62.85	57.96	1.49		122.30	58.86	62.39	1.04		125.74	66.03	58.46	1.26	
															
												
IDEOLOGY
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
Lib 	22%	86%	12%	2%		21%	85%	13%	2%		22%	93%	6%	1%
Mod	45%	57%	41%	2%		45%	54%	45%	1%		45%	58%	41%	1%
Con 	33%	16%	82%	2%		34%	15%	84%	1%		33%	18%	81%	1%
														
Total
	100%	49.85%	48.15%	2.00%		100%	47.25%	51.54%	1.21%		100%	52.50%	46.50%	1.00%
Votes	122.30	60.96	58.89	2.45		122.30	57.78	63.03	1.48		125.74	66.01	58.47	1.26
		
															
		
RELIGION
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes
Prot	53%	43%	56%	1%		53%	40%	59%	1%		53%	45%	54%	1%	66.64
Cath	27%	50%	49%	1%		27%	47%	52%	1%		27%	51%	48%	1%	33.95
Jewish   3%	78%	22%	0%		3%	74%	25%	1%		3%	78%	21%	1%	3.77
Other    7%	75%	21%	4%		7%	74%	23%	3%		7%	75%	24%	1%	8.80
None 	10%	69%	29%	2%		10%	67%	31%	2%		10%	73%	26%	1%	12.57
												
Total
	100%	50.78%	47.94%	1.28%		100%	47.99%	50.77%	1.24%		100%	52.51%	46.49%	1.00%	59.10
Votes	122.30	62.10	58.63	1.57		122.30	58.69	62.09	1.52		125.74	66.03	58.46	1.26	
															
															
MILITARY
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes
Yes 	18%	43%	55%	2%		18%	41%	57%	2%		18%	46%	53%	1%	22.63
No 	82%	53%	46%	1%		82%	50%	49%	1%		82%	54%	45%	1%	103.11
		
Total
	100%	51.20%	47.62%	1.18%		100%	48.38%	50.44%	1.18%		100%	52.56%	46.44%	1.00%	125.74
Votes	122.30	62.62	58.24	1.44		122.30	59.17	61.69	1.44		125.74	66.09	58.39	1.26	
															
															
WHEN DECIDED
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes
Today 	6%	53%	40%	7%		5%	52%	45%	3%		6%	66%	33%	1%	7.54
Last3 	3%	53%	41%	6%		4%	55%	42%	3%		3%	62%	37%	1%	3.77
Last7 	2%	48%	51%	1%		2%	48%	51%	1%		2%	61%	38%	1%	2.51
Last30	10%	60%	38%	2%		10%	54%	44%	2%		10%	60%	39%	1%	12.57
Over30 79%	49%	50%	1%		79%	46%	53%	1%		79%	50%	49%	1%	99.33
															
Total
	100%	50.44%	47.95%	1.61%		100%	47.50%	51.22%	1.28%		100%	52.54%	46.46%	1.00%	
Votes	122.30	61.69	58.64	1.97		122.30	58.09	62.64	1.57		125.74	66.06	58.42	1.26	

_________________________________________________________________


2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am)

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: 
2000 VOTER TURNOUT AND KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS

EFFECT ON NATIONAL VOTE SHARE

   	       			      Kerry Share of New Voters (DNV)
Turnout Weight	 DNV	60%	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%	53%	52%	51%

					Kerry National Vote

100%	40.25%	17.35%	52.85%	52.68%	52.51%	52.33%	52.16%	51.98%	51.81%	51.64%	51.46%	51.29%
99%	39.84%	18.18%	52.92%	52.74%	52.56%	52.38%	52.20%	52.02%	51.83%	51.65%	51.47%	51.29%
98%	39.44%	19.01%	53.00%	52.81%	52.62%	52.43%	52.24%	52.05%	51.86%	51.67%	51.47%	51.28%
97%	39.04%	19.83%	53.07%	52.87%	52.67%	52.47%	52.27%	52.08%	51.88%	51.68%	51.48%	51.28%
96%	38.64%	20.66%	53.14%	52.93%	52.73%	52.52%	52.31%	52.11%	51.90%	51.69%	51.49%	51.28%
													
95%	38.23%	21.49%	53.21%	53.00%	52.78%	52.57%	52.35%	52.14%	51.92%	51.71%	51.49%	51.28%
94%	37.83%	22.31%	53.28%	53.06%	52.84%	52.61%	52.39%	52.17%	51.94%	51.72%	51.50%	51.27%
93%	37.43%	23.14%	53.35%	53.12%	52.89%	52.66%	52.43%	52.20%	51.96%	51.73%	51.50%	51.27%
92%	37.03%	23.97%	53.42%	53.18%	52.95%	52.71%	52.47%	52.23%	51.99%	51.75%	51.51%	51.27%
91%	36.62%	24.79%	53.50%	53.25%	53.00%	52.75%	52.50%	52.26%	52.01%	51.76%	51.51%	51.26%
													

EFFECT ON NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN

   	       			      Kerry Share of New Voters
Turnout Weight	 DNV	60%	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%	53%	52%	51%

					Kerry Margin (millions)	

100%	40.25%	17.35%	8.44 	8.01 	7.57 	7.13 	6.70 	6.26 	5.82 	5.39 4.95	4.51
99%	39.84%	18.18%	8.62 	8.16 	7.71 	7.25 	6.79 	6.34 	5.88 	5.42 4.96 	4.51
98%	39.44%	19.01%	8.80 	8.32 	7.85 	7.37 	6.89 	6.41 	5.93 	5.46 4.98 	4.50
97%	39.04%	19.83%	8.98 	8.48 	7.98 	7.48 	6.99 	6.49 	5.99 	5.49 4.99 	4.49
96%	38.64%	20.66%	9.16 	8.64 	8.12 	7.60 	7.08 	6.56 	6.04 	5.52 5.00 	4.48
												
95%	38.23%	21.49%	9.34 	8.80 	8.26 	7.72 	7.18 	6.64 	6.10 	5.56 5.02 	4.48
94%	37.83%	22.31%	9.52 	8.96 	8.40 	7.84 	7.28 	6.71 	6.15 	5.59 5.03 	4.47
93%	37.43%	23.14%	9.70 	9.12 	8.54 	7.95 	7.37 	6.79 	6.21 	5.63 5.04 	4.46
92%	37.03%	23.97%	9.88 	9.28 	8.67 	8.07 	7.47 	6.87 	6.26 	5.66 5.06 	4.46
91%	36.62%	24.79%	10.06	9.44 	8.81 	8.19 	7.57 	6.94 	6.32 	5.70 5.07 	4.45 


EFFECT ON PROBABILITY OF MAJORITY VOTE
MoE: 2%

   	       			      Kerry Share of New Voters
Turnout Weight	 DNV	60%	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%	53%	52%	51%

					Probability of Kerry Majority (49.5%)

100%	40.25%	17.35%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	99.6%	99.4%	99.0%	98.4%	97.5%	96.3%
99%	39.84%	18.18%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	99.6%	99.4%	99.0%	98.4%	97.6%	96.3%
98%	39.44%	19.01%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.8%	99.7%	99.5%	99.1%	98.5%	97.6%	96.3%
97%	39.04%	19.83%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.7%	99.5%	99.1%	98.5%	97.6%	96.3%
96%	38.64%	20.66%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	99.5%	99.2%	98.6%	97.6%	96.2%
												
95%	38.23%	21.49%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	99.6%	99.2%	98.6%	97.7%	96.2%
94%	37.83%	22.31%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.8%	99.6%	99.3%	98.7%	97.7%	96.2%
93%	37.43%	23.14%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.8%	99.6%	99.3%	98.7%	97.7%	96.2%
92%	37.03%	23.97%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.8%	99.7%	99.4%	98.8%	97.8%	96.1%
91%	36.62%	24.79%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.7%	99.4%	98.8%	97.8%	96.1%

_________________________________________________________________


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:
GORE 2000 VOTER TURNOUT AND NEW VOTERS
(ASSUME 100% BUSH/OTHER VOTER TURNOUT)

NATIONAL VOTE SHARE
										
Gore	     				Kerry Share of New Voters (DNV)
Turnout	 Weight DNV	60%	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%	53%	52%	51%

					Kerry National Vote

100%	40.25%	17.35%	52.85%	52.68%	52.51%	52.33%	52.16%	51.98%	51.81%	51.64%	51.46%	51.29%
99%	39.84%	17.76%	52.67%	52.49%	52.31%	52.14%	51.96%	51.78%	51.60%	51.43%	51.25%	51.07%
98%	39.44%	18.16%	52.49%	52.31%	52.12%	51.94%	51.76%	51.58%	51.40%	51.22%	51.03%	50.85%
97%	39.04%	18.56%	52.30%	52.12%	51.93%	51.75%	51.56%	51.38%	51.19%	51.00%	50.82%	50.63%
96%	38.64%	18.96%	52.12%	51.93%	51.74%	51.55%	51.36%	51.17%	50.98%	50.79%	50.60%	50.41%
													
95%	38.23%	19.37%	51.94%	51.74%	51.55%	51.36%	51.16%	50.97%	50.78%	50.58%	50.39%	50.19%
94%	37.83%	19.77%	51.75%	51.56%	51.36%	51.16%	50.96%	50.77%	50.57%	50.37%	50.17%	49.98%
93%	37.43%	20.17%	51.57%	51.37%	51.17%	50.97%	50.77%	50.56%	50.36%	50.16%	49.96%	49.76%
92%	37.03%	20.57%	51.39%	51.18%	50.98%	50.77%	50.57%	50.36%	50.15%	49.95%	49.74%	49.54%
91%	36.62%	20.98%	51.21%	51.00%	50.79%	50.58%	50.37%	50.16%	49.95%	49.74%	49.53%	49.32%
													

NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN
													
Gore	     				Kerry Share of New Voters
Turnout	 Weight DNV	60%	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%	53%	52%	51%

					Kerry Margin (millions)	
		
100%	40.25%	17.35%	8.44 	8.01 	7.57 	7.13 	6.70 	6.26 	5.82 	5.39 4.95	4.51
99%	39.84%	17.76%	7.98 	7.54 	7.09 	6.64 	6.20 	5.75 	5.30 	4.86 4.41	3.96 
98%	39.44%	18.16%	7.52 	7.06 	6.61 	6.15 	5.69 	5.24 	4.78 	4.32 3.87	3.41 
97%	39.04%	18.56%	7.06 	6.59 	6.13 	5.66 	5.19 	4.73 	4.26 	3.79 3.33	2.86 
96%	38.64%	18.96%	6.60 	6.12 	5.65 	5.17 	4.69 	4.22 	3.74 	3.26 2.79	2.31 
													
95%	38.23%	19.37%	6.14 	5.65 	5.17 	4.68 	4.19 	3.71 	3.22 	2.73 2.25	1.76 
94%	37.83%	19.77%	5.68 	5.18 	4.69 	4.19 	3.69 	3.20 	2.70 	2.20 1.70	1.21 
93%	37.43%	20.17%	5.22 	4.71 	4.21 	3.70 	3.19 	2.69 	2.18 	1.67 1.16	0.66 
92%	37.03%	20.57%	4.76 	4.24 	3.73 	3.21 	2.69 	2.17 	1.66 	1.14 0.62	0.10 
91%	36.62%	20.98%	4.30 	3.77 	3.25 	2.72 	2.19 	1.66 	1.14 	0.61 0.08 -0.45


PROBABILITY OF MAJORITY VOTE
MoE: 2%
													
Gore	     				Kerry Share of New Voters
Turnout	 Weight DNV	60%	59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%	53%	52%	51%

				Probability of Kerry Winning Majority (49.5%)

100%	40.25%	17.35%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	99.6%	99.4%	99.0%	98.4%	97.5%	96.3%
99%	39.84%	17.76%	99.9%	99.9%	99.8%	99.6%	99.3%	98.9%	98.2%	97.3%	96.0%	94.2%
98%	39.44%	18.16%	99.9%	99.7%	99.6%	99.3%	98.8%	98.1%	97.1%	95.7%	93.7%	91.2%
97%	39.04%	18.56%	99.7%	99.6%	99.3%	98.8%	98.0%	97.0%	95.4%	93.4%	90.6%	87.1%
96%	38.64%	18.96%	99.6%	99.2%	98.8%	98.0%	96.9%	95.3%	93.1%	90.2%	86.5%	82.0%
												
95%	38.23%	19.37%	99.3%	98.8%	98.0%	96.8%	95.2%	92.9%	89.9%	86.0%	81.3%	75.6%
94%	37.83%	19.77%	98.8%	98.0%	96.9%	95.2%	92.8%	89.7%	85.7%	80.8%	75.0%	68.3%
93%	37.43%	20.17%	98.1%	96.9%	95.2%	92.9%	89.7%	85.6%	80.6%	74.5%	67.7%	60.1%
92%	37.03%	20.57%	97.1%	95.4%	93.0%	89.8%	85.7%	80.5%	74.4%	67.3%	59.6%	51.5%
91%	36.62%	20.98%	95.6%	93.3%	90.1%	85.9%	80.7%	74.5%	67.3%	59.4%	51.1%	42.8%

_________________________________________________________________

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - 12:22AM NEP DEMOGRAPHIC CATEGORIES 

INCREMENTAL KERRY (BUSH) VOTE SHARES AND SELECTED WEIGHTS
THIRD PARTY(OTHER) VOTE SHARES HELD CONSTANT

ADJUSTED DEMOGRAPHIC                          

GENDER                                   Kerry/ Male     
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Fem	44.0%	45.0%	46.0%	47.0%	48.0%	49.6%	50.0%

Male..46.4%	49.6%	49.4%	1.0%		51.0%	47.8%	48.2%	48.7%	49.1%	49.6%	50.4%	50.5%
Fem...53.6%	55.0%	44.0%	1.0%		52.0%	48.3%	48.8%	49.2%	49.7%	50.1%	50.9%	51.1%
						53.0%	48.8%	49.3%	49.8%	50.2%	50.7%	51.4%	51.6%
		52.49%	46.51%	1.00%		54.0%	49.4%	49.8%	50.3%	50.8%	51.2%	52.0%	52.1%
		66.01	58.48	1.26		55.0%	49.9%	50.4%	50.8%	51.3%	51.8%	52.49%	52.7%
													
													
PARTY ID                                 Weight   Kerry/ Dem
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Dem	89.0%	90.0%	91.0%	92.0%	93.0%	94.0%	95.0%

Dem	38.0%	92.0%	7.0%	1.0%		35.0%	48.9%	49.3%	49.6%	50.0%	50.3%	50.7%	51.0%
Rep 	35.0%	8.0%	91.0%	1.0%		36.0%	49.7%	50.1%	50.5%	50.8%	51.2%	51.5%	51.9%
Ind	27.0%	54.6%	44.4%	1.0%		37.0%	50.6%	50.9%	51.3%	51.7%	52.0%	52.4%	52.8%
						38.0%	51.4%	51.7%	52.1%	52.50%	52.9%	53.3%	53.6%
		52.50%	46.50%	1.00%		39.0%	52.2%	52.6%	53.0%	53.3%	53.7%	54.1%	54.5%
		66.02	58.47	1.26		40.0%	53.0%	53.4%	53.8%	54.2%	54.6%	55.0%	55.4%
													

VOTED IN 2000
Weights adjusted to reflect 2000 vote							
Assume 98% Turnout of 2000 voters					

                                         Kerry/ DNV			
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Gore	54.0%	55.0%	56.0%	57.0%	58.0%	59.0%	60.0%

DNV	21.49%	57%	41%	2%		89.0%	51.2%	51.4%	51.6%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%	52.4%
Gore	38.23%	91%	8%	1%		90.0%	51.5%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%	52.4%	52.6%	52.8%
Bush	37.83%	10%	90%	0%		91.0%	51.9%	52.1%	52.4%	52.57%	52.8%	53.0%	53.2%
Other	2.46%	71%	21%	8%		92.0%	52.3%	52.5%	52.7%	53.0%	53.2%	53.4%	53.6%
						93.0%	52.7%	52.9%	53.1%	53.3%	53.5%	53.8%	54.0%
	      52.57%	46.43%	1.01%		94.0%	53.1%	53.3%	53.5%	53.7%	53.9%	54.1%	54.4%
		66.10	58.38	1.27		95.0%	53.5%	53.7%	53.9%	54.1%	54.3%	54.5%	54.7%
													
													
								      	
REGION                                   Kerry/ East			    
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		MidW	56.0%	57.0%	58.0%	59.0%	60.0%	61.0%	62.0%

East	22%	59%	40%	1%		48.0%	50.8%	51.0%	51.3%	51.5%	51.7%	51.9%	52.1%
Midw	26%	52%	47%	1%		49.0%	51.1%	51.3%	51.5%	51.7%	52.0%	52.2%	52.4%
South	31%	46%	53%	1%		50.0%	51.3%	51.6%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%	52.4%	52.7%
West	21%	56%	43%	1%		51.0%	51.6%	51.8%	52.0%	52.3%	52.5%	52.7%	52.9%
						52.0%	51.9%	52.1%	52.3%	52.52%	52.7%	53.0%	53.2%
		52.52%	46.48%	1.00%		53.0%	52.1%	52.3%	52.6%	52.8%	53.0%	53.2%	53.4%
		66.04	58.44	1.26		54.0%	52.4%	52.6%	52.8%	53.0%	53.3%	53.5%	53.7%
													
													
									
EDUCATION                                Kerry/ HSG   
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		ColG	47.0%	49.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%

NoHS	4%	51%	48%	1%		46.0%	49.9%	50.3%	50.8%	51.0%	51.2%	51.4%	51.6%
HSG 	22%	53%	46%	1%		47.0%	50.1%	50.6%	51.0%	51.2%	51.5%	51.7%	51.9%
Col 	31%	50%	49%	1%		48.0%	50.4%	50.8%	51.3%	51.5%	51.7%	51.9%	52.2%
ColG 	26%	51%	48%	1%		49.0%	50.7%	51.1%	51.5%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%	52.4%
PostG	17%	59%	40%	1%		50.0%	50.9%	51.4%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%	52.5%	52.7%
						51.0%	51.2%	51.6%	52.1%	52.3%	52.49%	52.7%	52.9%
		52.49%	46.51%	1.00%		52.0%	51.4%	51.9%	52.3%	52.5%	52.8%	53.0%	53.2%
		66.00	58.48	1.26		53.0%	51.7%	52.1%	52.6%	52.8%	53.0%	53.2%	53.5%
													
													
	
RACE AND GENDER                          Kerry/ Non-White Female
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		WFem	75.0%	76.0%	77.0%	78.0%	79.0%	80.0%	81.0%

WMale	36%	43%	56%	1%		46.0%	51.4%	51.5%	51.7%	51.8%	51.9%	52.0%	52.2%
WFem	41%	48%	51%	1%		47.0%	51.8%	51.9%	52.1%	52.2%	52.3%	52.5%	52.6%
NwMale10%	73%	26%	1%		48.0%	52.2%	52.3%	52.47%	52.6%	52.7%	52.9%	53.0%
NwFem	13%	77%	22%	1%		49.0%	52.6%	52.8%	52.9%	53.0%	53.1%	53.3%	53.4%
						50.0%	53.0%	53.2%	53.3%	53.4%	53.6%	53.7%	53.8%
		52.47%	46.53%	1.00%		51.0%	53.4%	53.6%	53.7%	53.8%	54.0%	54.1%	54.2%
		65.98	58.51	1.26		52.0%	53.9%	54.0%	54.1%	54.2%	54.4%	54.5%	54.6%
													
													
						Kerry/ 18-29
AGE...Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		30-44	54.0%	56.0%	58.0%	59.0%	60.0%	61.0%	62.0%

18-29 	17%	60%	39%	1%		46.0%	50.2%	50.6%	50.9%	51.1%	51.3%	51.4%	51.6%
30-44 	29%	50%	49%	1%		47.0%	50.5%	50.9%	51.2%	51.4%	51.6%	51.7%	51.9%
45-59 	30%	54%	45%	1%		48.0%	50.8%	51.2%	51.5%	51.7%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%
60+ 	24%	48%	51%	1%		49.0%	51.1%	51.5%	51.8%	52.0%	52.1%	52.3%	52.5%
						50.0%	51.4%	51.7%	52.1%	52.3%	52.42%	52.6%	52.8%
		52.42%	46.58%	1.00%		51.0%	51.7%	52.0%	52.4%	52.5%	52.7%	52.9%	53.1%
		65.91	58.57	1.26		52.0%	52.0%	52.3%	52.7%	52.8%	53.0%	53.2%	53.3%
													
													
						Kerry/ 30-50k		
INCOME	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		75-100	50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%	56.0%

0-15K 	9%	67%	32%	1%		45.0%	51.1%	51.3%	51.6%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%	52.4%
15-30 	15%	61%	38%	1%		46.0%	51.3%	51.5%	51.7%	51.9%	52.1%	52.4%	52.6%
30-50 	22%	54%	45%	1%		47.0%	51.4%	51.6%	51.8%	52.0%	52.3%	52.5%	52.7%
50-75 	23%	47%	52%	1%		48.0%	51.5%	51.7%	52.0%	52.2%	52.4%	52.6%	52.8%
75-100 	13%	49%	50%	1%		49.0%	51.6%	51.9%	52.1%	52.3%	52.52%	52.7%	53.0%
100-150 11%	48%	51%	1%		50.0%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%	52.4%	52.7%	52.9%	53.1%
150-200 4%	45%	54%	1%		51.0%	51.9%	52.1%	52.3%	52.6%	52.8%	53.0%	53.2% 
200+ 	3%	40%	59%	1%		52.0%	52.0%	52.3%	52.5%	52.7%	52.9%	53.1%	53.4%
													
		52.52%	46.48%	1.00%									
		66.04	58.44	1.26									
													
													
	
IDEOLOGY                                 Kerry/ Liberal         
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mod	85.0%	87.0%	89.0%	91.0%	92.0%	93.0%	94.0%

Lib 	22%	93%	6%	1%		54.0%	48.9%	49.4%	49.8%	50.3%	50.5%	50.7%	50.9%
Mod	45%	58%	41%	1%		55.0%	49.4%	49.8%	50.3%	50.7%	50.9%	51.2%	51.4%
Con 	33%	18%	81%	1%		56.0%	49.8%	50.3%	50.7%	51.2%	51.4%	51.6%	51.8%
						57.0%	50.3%	50.7%	51.2%	51.6%	51.8%	52.1%	52.3%
		52.50%	46.50%	1.00%		58.0%	50.7%	51.2%	51.6%	52.1%	52.3%	52.50%	52.7%
		66.01	58.47	1.26		59.0%	51.2%	51.6%	52.1%	52.5%	52.7%	53.0%	53.2%
													
													
RELIGION                                 Kerry/ Catholic    
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Prot	46.0%	48.0%	50.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%

Prot	53%	44%	55%	1%		40.0%	48.8%	49.3%	49.8%	50.4%	50.6%	50.9%	51.2%
Cath	27%	52%	47%	1%		41.0%	49.3%	49.8%	50.4%	50.9%	51.2%	51.4%	51.7%
Jewish 3%	79%	20%	1%		42.0%	49.8%	50.4%	50.9%	51.4%	51.7%	52.0%	52.2%
Other  7%	78%	21%	1%		43.0%	50.3%	50.9%	51.4%	52.0%	52.2%	52.5%	52.8%
None 	10%	73%	26%	1%		44.0%	50.9%	51.4%	52.0%	52.49%	52.8%	53.0%	53.3%
						45.0%	51.4%	51.9%	52.5%	53.0%	53.3%	53.6%	53.8%
		52.49%	46.51%	1.00%		46.0%	51.9%	52.5%	53.0%	53.6%	53.8%	54.1%	54.4%
		66.00	58.48	1.26		47.0%	52.5%	53.0%	53.5%	54.1%	54.4%	54.6%	54.9%
													
													
MILITARY                                 Kerry/ No    
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Yes	50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%	56.0%

Yes 	18%	46%	53%	1%		43.0%	48.7%	49.6%	50.4%	51.2%	52.0%	52.8%	53.7%
No 	82%	54%	45%	1%		44.0%	48.9%	49.7%	50.6%	51.4%	52.2%	53.0%	53.8%
						45.0%	49.1%	49.9%	50.7%	51.6%	52.4%	53.2%	54.0%
		52.56%	46.44%	1.00%		46.0%	49.3%	50.1%	50.9%	51.7%	52.56%	53.4%	54.2%
		66.09	58.39	1.26		47.0%	49.5%	50.3%	51.1%	51.9%	52.7%	53.6%	54.4%
													
													
													
WHEN DECIDED                             Kerry/ Today    
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		Over30	52.0%	55.0%	58.0%	61.0%	64.0%	66.0%	69.0%

Today 6%	66%	33%	1%		46.0%	48.5%	48.7%	48.9%	49.0%	49.2%	49.3%	49.5%
3days 	3%	64%	35%	1%		47.0%	49.3%	49.5%	49.7%	49.8%	50.0%	50.1%	50.3%
7days 	2%	61%	38%	1%		48.0%	50.1%	50.3%	50.4%	50.6%	50.8%	50.9%	51.1%
30days 10%	59%	40%	1%		49.0%	50.9%	51.1%	51.2%	51.4%	51.6%	51.7%	51.9%
Over30 79%	50%	49%	1%		50.0%	51.7%	51.8%	52.0%	52.2%	52.4%	52.50%	52.7%
						51.0%	52.5%	52.6%	52.8%	53.0%	53.2%	53.3%	53.5%
		52.50%	46.50%	1.00%		52.0%	53.2%	53.4%	53.6%	53.8%	54.0%	54.1%	54.3%
		66.01	58.47	1.26		53.0%	54.0%	54.2%	54.4%	54.6%	54.8%	54.9%	55.1%


_________________________________________________________________

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - KERRY NATIONAL VOTE 
HOW VOTED IN 2000 DEMOGRAPHIC

The scenarios are grouped by Kerry share of those who did not vote (DNV) in
2000 for a range of Kerry's share of returning Gore and Bush voters. Weights
are adjusted to reflect the 2000 recorded vote and assume a 98% turnout of 2000
voters.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY

2000 voters for Kerry:
Case Gore Bush
Low  89%   8%
Base 91%  10% (Nov.3, 12:22am NEP)
High 93%  12%

Kerry National Vote:
(DNV to Kerry)
DNV Low  Base  High 
54% 50.4 51.93 53.4 (Nov.3, 2:04pm Final NEP)
57% 51.0 52.57 54.1 (Nov.3, 12:22am)
59% 51.5 53.00 54.5 (Nov.2, 7:30pm) 
_________________________________________________________________


VOTED IN 2000 (51% DNV to Kerry)		DNV		Bush voters for Kerry
      Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		51%	4.0%	6.0%	8.0%	10.0%	12.0%	14.0%	16.0%      
                  
                                           Gore           Kerry vote share 
DNV	21.49%	51%	47%	2%		85.0%	46.7%	47.5%	48.2%	49.0%	49.7%	50.5%	51.3%
Gore	38.23%	91%	8%	1%		87.0%	47.5%	48.2%	49.0%	49.8%	50.5%	51.3%	52.0%
Bush	37.83%	10%	90%	0%		89.0%	48.2%	49.0%	49.8%	50.5%	51.3%	52.0%	52.8%
Other	2.45%	71%	21%	8%		91.0%	49.0%	49.8%	50.5%	51.28%	52.0%	52.8%	53.6%
						93.0%	49.8%	50.5%	51.3%	52.0%	52.8%	53.6%	54.3%
Share	100.0%	51.28%	47.72%	1.00%		95.0%	50.5%	51.3%	52.1%	52.8%	53.6%	54.3%	55.1%
Votes	125.74	64.48	60.00	1.26		97.0%	51.3%	52.1%	52.8%	53.6%	54.3%	55.1%	55.8%

		
VOTED IN 2000 (54% DNV to Kerry)		DNV		Bush voters for Kerry
      Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		54%	4.0%	6.0%	8.0%	10.0%	12.0%	14.0%	16.0%      
        
                                           Gore           Kerry vote share 
DNV	21.49%	54%	44%	2%		85.0%	47.4%	48.1%	48.9%	49.6%	50.4%	51.1%	51.9%
Gore	38.23%	91%	8%	1%		87.0%	48.1%	48.9%	49.6%	50.4%	51.2%	51.9%	52.7%
Bush	37.83%	10%	90%	0%		89.0%	48.9%	49.6%	50.4%	51.2%	51.9%	52.7%	53.4%
Other	2.45%	71%	21%	8%		91.0%	49.7%	50.4%	51.2%	51.93%	52.7%	53.4%	54.2%
						93.0%	50.4%	51.2%	51.9%	52.7%	53.4%	54.2%	55.0%
Share	100.0%	51.93%	47.07%	1.00%		95.0%	51.2%	51.9%	52.7%	53.5%	54.2%	55.0%	55.7%
Votes	125.74	65.29	59.19	1.26		97.0%	52.0%	52.7%	53.5%	54.2%	55.0%	55.7%	56.5%

		
VOTED IN 2000 (57% DNV to Kerry)		DNV		Bush voters for Kerry
      Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		57%	4.0%	6.0%	8.0%	10.0%	12.0%	14.0%	16.0%

                                           Gore           Kerry vote share 
DNV	21.49%	57%	41%	2%		85.0%	48.0%	48.8%	49.5%	50.3%	51.0%	51.8%	52.5%
Gore	38.23%	91%	8%	1%		87.0%	48.8%	49.5%	50.3%	51.0%	51.8%	52.6%	53.3%
Bush	37.83%	10%	90%	0%		89.0%	49.5%	50.3%	51.0%	51.8%	52.6%	53.3%	54.1%
Other	2.45%	71%	21%	8%		91.0%	50.3%	51.1%	51.8%	52.57%	53.3%	54.1%	54.8%
						93.0%	51.1%	51.8%	52.6%	53.3%	54.1%	54.8%	55.6%
Share	100.0%	52.57%	46.43%	1.00%		95.0%	51.8%	52.6%	53.3%	54.1%	54.9%	55.6%	56.4%
Votes	125.74	66.10	58.38	1.26		97.0%	52.6%	53.4%	54.1%	54.9%	55.6%	56.4%	57.1%

		
VOTED IN 2000 (59% DNV to Kerry)		DNV		Bush voters for Kerry
      Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		59%	4.0%	6.0%	8.0%	10.0%	12.0%	14.0%	16.0%      
                  
                                           Gore           Kerry vote share 
DNV	21.49%	59%	39%	2%		85.0%	48.4%	49.2%	50.0%	50.7%	51.5%	52.2%	53.0%
Gore	38.23%	91%	8%	1%		87.0%	49.2%	50.0%	50.7%	51.5%	52.2%	53.0%	53.7%
Bush	37.83%	10%	90%	0%		89.0%	50.0%	50.7%	51.5%	52.2%	53.0%	53.7%	54.5%
Other	2.45%	71%	21%	8%		91.0%	50.7%	51.5%	52.2%	53.00%	53.8%	54.5%	55.3%
						93.0%	51.5%	52.3%	53.0%	53.8%	54.5%	55.3%	56.0%
Share	100.0%	53.00%	46.00%	1.00%		95.0%	52.3%	53.0%	53.8%	54.5%	55.3%	56.0%	56.8%
Votes	125.74	66.64	57.84	1.26		97.0%	53.0%	53.8%	54.5%	55.3%	56.1%	56.8%	57.6%

		
VOTED IN 2000 (61% DNV to Kerry)		DNV		Bush voters for Kerry
	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other		61%	4.0%	6.0%	8.0%	10.0%	12.0%	14.0%	16.0%           
             
                                           Gore           Kerry vote share 
DNV	21.49%	61%	37%	2%		85.0%	48.9%	49.6%	50.4%	51.1%	51.9%	52.6%	53.4%
Gore	38.23%	91%	8%	1%		87.0%	49.6%	50.4%	51.1%	51.9%	52.7%	53.4%	54.2%
Bush	37.83%	10%	90%	0%		89.0%	50.4%	51.2%	51.9%	52.7%	53.4%	54.2%	54.9%
Other	2.45%	71%	21%	8%		91.0%	51.2%	51.9%	52.7%	53.43%	54.2%	54.9%	55.7%
						93.0%	51.9%	52.7%	53.4%	54.2%	55.0%	55.7%	56.5%
Share	100.0%	53.43%	45.57%	1.00%		95.0%	52.7%	53.4%	54.2%	55.0%	55.7%	56.5%	57.2%
Votes	125.74	67.18	57.30	1.26		97.0%	53.5%	54.2%	55.0%	55.7%	56.5%	57.2%	58.0%

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.