Given:
12:22am National Exit Poll "How Did You Vote in 2000" demographic

Assume:
EQUAL 98% turnout in 2004 of Gore, Bush and Nader 2000 voters
... WHO WERE STILL ALIVE TO VOTE.

Calculate:
1) The POPULAR vote
2) The probability of Kerry winning a majority.
3) The probability of the exit poll discrepancy.

Result:
Kerry won the election by 7 MILLION votes (64-57).
The popular vote share: Kerry 52.4% - Bush 46.7%.

The probability of a Kerry majority: astronomical (see below).
The probability of the vote discrepancy: infinitesmal (see below).

http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.p...

________________________________________________________________

HOW VOTED IN 2000

..... Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other
No.....23.56 19.27% 57% 41% 2%
Gore...48.23 39.45% 91% 8% 1%
Bush..47.71 39.02% 10% 90% 0%
Other...2.76 2.26% 71% 21% 8%
.................52.39% 46.65% 0.96%
..................64.05 57.04 1.17


________________________________________________________________

According to Edison-Mitofsky, the 12:22am NEP MoE was 1.0%.
They also noted that "final percentages may shift slightly".
No mention of a "cluster effect".

The 3rd party vote was 1.0%, therefore 49.5% was the breakeven (tie vote).

Calulate the theoretical MOE, assuming a 50/50 poll split:
MoE = .98/sqrt(N) = 0.86% for N = 13047.
Adding 15% to the theoretical 0.86% MoE, we get 0.99%.
Presumably, a 15% cluster effect was assumed by E-M, rounded to 1.0%.

Let's calculate the probability that Kerry won the popular vote
(i.e, his TRUE vote exceeded 49.5%) based on his 52.4%-46.6% NEP margin.

We will apply various "cluster factors" to the theoretical 0.86% MoE.
The accompanying graph displays a SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:
The effects of "cluster" on MoE and Kerry's win probability.
_____________________________________________________________________

USING EDISON-MITOFSKY'S STATED MARGIN OF ERROR...
Assuming a 15% cluster effect, the MoE is 1.0%.

Using Excel's Normal Distribution function,
Kerry's popular vote win probability is 99.999999%

KP = NORMDIST(.524, .495, .01/1.96, true)
KP = 99.999999%

The probability of a Bush win is 1 in 150 million.
_____________________________________________________________________

TO BE CONSERVATIVE...
For a 30% cluster effect, the MoE is 1.12%.

Kerry's win probability is 99.99998%.
KP = NORMDIST(.524, .495, .0112/1.96, true)
KP = 99.99998%

The probability of a Bush win is 1 in 5 million.
_____________________________________________________________________

FINALLY, TO SATISFY THE NAYSAYERS...
For a 100% cluster effect; the MoE is 1.72%.

EVEN WITH THIS IMPLAUSIBLE FAT MoE...
Kerry's win probability is 99.95%.
KP = NORMDIST(.524, .495, .0172/1.96, true)

The probability of a Bush win is 1 in 2,100.

QUERE MAS? OK
_____________________________________________________________________

COMPARE THE PROBABILITY OF THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL VOTE DISCREPANCY
TO THE PROBABILITY OF 16 STATE EXIT POLLS EXCEEDING THE
MARGIN OF ERROR FOR BUSH...AND NOT ONE FOR KERRY.

NATIONAL EXIT POLL
Assumptions:
1) 98% voter turnout for Bush and Gore 2000 voters.
2) 1.05% Exit Poll MoE (20% CLUSTER effect)

P1= Probability of Kerry's 4.11% exit poll discrepancy:
P1= 1/ NORMDIST(.4828, .5239, .0105/1.96, TRUE)
P1= 8.55E-15
or 1 in 117 TRILLION

P2= Probability of Bush's 4.08% exit poll discrepancy:
P2= 1/ NORMDIST(.4665, .5073, .0105/1.96, TRUE)
P2= 1.32E-14
or 1 in 76 TRILLION

STATE EXIT POLLS:
P3= Probability of the exit poll discrepancy exceeding the MoE in 16 states:
P3= 1 - BINOMDIST(15, 50, .025, TRUE)
or 1 in 19 TRILLION

QUERE MAS? OK
_____________________________________________________________________

STATE EXIT POLL RESPONSE ANALYSIS

http://www.progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.p...

Given:
a) State Exit Poll RESPONSE rates (73,607 total sample)
b) Bush's two-party RECORDED state vote shares
c) Bush's two-party RECORDED national vote share (51.24%)

Objective:
1) Determine the Bush vote share of state exit poll NON-RESPONDERS
(refusers) REQUIRED to MATCH the RECORDED vote.

2) From (1), calculate the probabilities of individual state
DISCREPANCIES between responders and refusers.

3) Calculate the AVERAGE DISCREPANCY between the responder and refuser
vote shares REQUIRED TO MATCH the 51.24% vote.

4) From (3), calculate the probability of the overall average discrepancy.

Assuming a very conservative 1.0% MoE (it's actually 0.37% for a 73,607 sample), the probability of the 3.7% (49.5-53.2%) DISCREPANCY between Bush RESPONDER AND REFUSER AVERAGE vote shares is 1.22e-13, or 1 in 8 TRILLION.

THE DIVERSE ASTRONOMICAL KERRY AND MICROSCOPIC BUSH WIN PROBABILITIES
PROVIDE OVERWHELMING CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE THAT KERRY WON THE ELECTION.

_____________________________________________________________________

http://progressiveindependent.com/dc/dcboard.php?a...



These FACTS are never discussed in the media.
- election fraud
- undecided voters break for the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular. Bush was at 48%.
- Many newly registered voters are not included in LV (likely voter) polls.
- Since 1988, Democrats have won 60-70% of new voters. In 2008, Obama had 71%+.
- MILLIONS of mostly (70-80%) Democratic votes are uncounted in every election
- The 2004/2006/2008 Final National Exit Polls indicated there were millions of returning phantom Bush voters from the prior election (more than were alive).
- The Final National and State exit polls are always FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote.
- By definition, the RECORDED VOTE never reflects the TRUE VOTE since millions of votes are UNCOUNTED in EVERY election.
- Uncounted votes alone provide overwhelming evidence that elections were stolen in 1968, 1988, 2000 and 2004.
- 1968: 6 million net uncounted votes.
Nixon won the recorded vote by 500,000.
- 1988: 10.6 million net uncounted votes. Bush won the recorded vote by 7m.
- 2000: 5.4 million net uncounted votes. Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000.
- 2004: Nearly 4 million uncounted votes.
Bush won the recorded vote by 3.0 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 10m.
Approximately 5 million were switched from Kerry to Bush on UNVERIFIABLE voting machines.

- 2006 midterms: Democrats won by more than double the recorded 52-46%% margin.
10-20 House seats were stolen.

- 2008: Obama won by more than double his recorded 9.5m margin.

1988-2008: the average Democratic TRUE VOTE margin was reduced from 10% to a 4% RECORDED MARGIN by Election Fraud.

VOTER FRAUD was virtually non-existent.